Episode 25

Shane Mercer [00:00:24]:

Hello and welcome to another episode of Behind the Lines. I'm your host Shane Mercer and look who's back. It's Andrew Pace, the founder of inplayLIVE, only the greatest sports betting community on planet Earth. And we got to remind all of you to like download, subscribe, follow us on all the socials at inplayLIVE. This podcast Behind the Lines. If you want to join inplayLIVE, well, you can just use the title of our podcast 'BEHINDTHELINES' all caps to get a special promo code offered to see what it's all about on the inside and on this podcast. This is the only sports podcast out there where you're not going to get any picks, predictions, or crystal ball peering. No. We are here to help teach you about how the sports books work and the landscape in general. And today, Pace, we have a shift in that landscape. Fox bet is no more. It is shuttering down. Over the next month or so, it will completely disconnect from Flutter, which is the company that owned it. It's the company that owns a vast majority stake in FanDuel and there will be no more Fox Bet out there. Any thoughts on that? Right off the lots.

Andrew Pace [00:01:41]:

I mean, I think it's a fear of any professional bettor to see books closing down because predominantly we just see books open in the offshore betting community of books. There's just so many and I think back over the years and I think of books that no longer offer live betting that were as prominent a sports book in, let's say, the late 2000s. So like the kind of thing that they're just one of the staples that you'd go bet through that now no one even uses anymore because of the changes that have happened throughout the industry. So it is a part of the whole landscape and the changes that occur. But there is a lot to say on the topic. And the reason why I say that is because let's just say that there's a listener here. I doubt there's even one listener that's going to resonate with this. But let's just say it was your primary book and maybe your only book and you're like, oh, where am I going to bet now? Well, you might really like their lines, right? And I know that Fanatics is using the same odds provider now. And I think that that does all have something to do with the fact that Foxbet is closing down because I think that name didn't really break through as the DraftKings, the FanDuels, the Bet, MGMs, they didn't have the same traction as some of those other books. They also had like a really short leash. I know there's a lot of players from inplayLIVE that they actually started their professional sports betting journey through Fox bet because at the end of football games when teams were kneeling out they didn't know that the game wouldn't still have more plays happening. So people were really exploiting. We'd make jokes like they were shaking hands on the field, and the line was still up because the clock was still technically moving so really bad odds. So, like one point ones and -10,000 and things like that at the end of football games where you could literally go all in. But because of people doing that on their site, they were, number one, pretty heavily exploited, and number two, they started to recognize that they fixed a lot of it, but at the end of the day, they just decided to basically limit players almost instantly. And that's usually a sign that things aren't really working for that book. They don't have a defense against winning players, their algorithms in the way that the lines are moving are obviously something that are challenging for them to completely fix and if they were a profitable amazing sports book, I don't think they'd be closing their doors.

Shane Mercer [00:04:22]:

Well, I'm glad you brought that up because I'll just run the numbers at you quickly here. So in the US. FoxBet contributed less than 3% to Flutter's revenue of $3.3 billion. So that was Flutter's revenue in the US last year, 3.3 billion and FoxBet contributed less than 3% to that the company Flutter hoping to return to profit this year after a $313,000,000 loss last year in 2022. So they lost that amount of money. Fox bet and poker stars were responsible for $91 million of that loss. So I think that really speaks to those bad lines that they were posting. Clearly not doing anything for the parent company Flutter. So I guess no surprise there, right?

Andrew Pace [00:05:18]:

Yeah, I think when you uncover the hood of those numbers you wonder like the 3.3 billion in revenue is that their handle or that's the actual take that they've brought in do you know.

Shane Mercer [00:05:30]:

That $313,000,000 is their loss?

Andrew Pace [00:05:34]:

I know you can have a net loss because of really heavily investing in marketing right? There's other reasons obviously, but exactly if 3.3 billion was their handle for the year and they took a 300 million dollar loss on the handle, they're really doing things wrong. If 3.3 billion was the revenue after their total handle which probably is the case, they're just investing a lot into different channels and things like that that are leading to a net loss. And also a company like that you'd really think that they'd have to turn this around and be profitable over these next twelve months here? How many more years do you need to be running a sports betting platform before you actually do in fact turn a profit? And I think that one of the big problems in the industry as a whole right now is that problem that you just painted, it's companies that aren't turning a profit. And rather than look at the reasons from a fiduciary standpoint that they potentially aren't doing as well as they can, a lot of them are going, okay, well, our answer to this is to limit the winning players, which we've seen sports books that don't limit winners. And yes, the profit margin might be lower than a sports book that does limit winning players, but ultimately, you still can be profitable. And it sounds like there's bigger problems than winners at a company that's losing hundreds of millions of dollars a year.

Shane Mercer [00:07:09]:

Yeah, you're probably right there in the sense that a lot of that loss is being spent on marketing and a whole bunch of other areas as well. But the company flutter says that it is aiming to return to profit this year, 2023. So I guess we'll have to wait and see if that happens. All right, moving on. We've got something else that we want to share with the audience here, and I think this could probably be described as a great example of bad, bad gambling, bad chasing. So, Pace, you shared this with me, our buddy Dave Portnoy over at Barstool. We've been talking a lot about him and about Barstool lately. You sent this over to me, and I couldn't help but laugh when I saw it. So I'm going to do a little screen share here, and then I'm going to play the audio. He had also posted a video that comes with the screen share. So sounds like him and a buddy were having quite the day at the track, and they were losing a lot of money from the sounds of it. And you'll be able to tell when I play the audio here for you in a moment about just how bad it was, but in the end, they managed to turn a big win. So look, here's the one tweet. We lost all our cash, so had to leave the track, and then they kept betting when they got home. First race home. Don't let me leave the track. That's when I do my best work. Get off me. And he posts this winning ticket here $2,000 that they turned into $110,000. What I'll do now is I'll just play the audio of it here for you.

Dave Portnoy [00:08:53]:

You just got to hang in. This game is built on losing, and they try to break you down. They try to break your ribs, break your nose, break your skull, break your brain. This guy over here was just saying, I'm going home, I'm going home. I'm quitting, I'm done. I said, no. I said, Elio, you're my friend. I'm not going to let you I'm going home. He's crumpled his money. His jacket is ripped, and he left it at the track. His jacket is at the track. He's going, I'm going home. I'm going home. And I said, Elio, I'm not going to let you. You got to hang in. You just got to take their best punch and then you got to fucking punch back. I did it yesterday with that double that paid 50 grand and saved this guy today. He's making phone calls, he's trying to get discounts on the dough on the pizzas. My wife's going to kill me. I said, Elio, just hang in. Just ride with me. I got you, buddy. 100 grand exacto. 110 to be exact. I said, Elio, you stick with me, I'm going to teach you about perseverance sticking with this game. They'll try to break you down if you let them. Like, Elio here is like, I'm going home, I'm going home. I can't do it. I said, Elio, I'm going to take you to the promised land. Get on me, big boy. Get on me and I'll get you to the finish line. Made his year, made his. Just that's the lesson. Never give up, Jimmy B. Don't ever give up. Never give up.

Shane Mercer [00:10:10]:

Pace. Never give up. Does that sound about right to you when it comes to your style of sports betting?

Andrew Pace [00:10:17]:

Jeez? Well, kind of, actually, but for very different reasons. Portnoy has self proclaimed losses well into the seven figures in his betting career. Notorious gambler and notorious promoter of gambling and profiter of gambling, right? And you put it all together and maybe sobriety is in question with the Tweet and the video, maybe a little bit, especially after a day at the track, right. And it's encouraging the concept that if you just keep gambling, eventually you're going to win, which there is some statistical validity to that. But the point is that you're not going to win back all of the money that you've lost. Portnoy didn't just turn seven figures, multi seven figures in his lifetime losses back. He just probably got back the money that he had lost that day or maybe turned a profit as a result of that one particular bet. That was a total Hail Mary, 55 to one payout that the racetrack was probably thrilled to pay out, knowing that that particular gambler or player will be back to lose that over time. The promoting of it, it's scary because you look at his audience who are followers of him, loyal followers of him, gamblers that do follow barstool, who does post a lot of online gambling and online live stream casino play and things like that. Live sports betting or sports betting where you see them losing money or making money in real time. You put all those things together and you put that out to that following and you go, Holy smokes, I just keep needing to put these parlays together. One of these will hit. I just keep needing to put these next bets in, these next spins of the roulette wheel, like black 22 will hit eventually. That's the mindset that can promote. And I guess coming from him and who he is in the industry. You could argue that there's some obviously the intent is he's encouraging people to gamble, which he profits from. But you could argue that there's some intent there that probably shouldn't be from the standpoint of regulation and things like that where you're really promoting excessive gambling as someone who should be saying play responsibly.

Shane Mercer [00:13:06]:

Yeah, well, I'll also mention too that that video that I just played for you, he actually took that tweet down or it's been deleted. So I think maybe he clued in afterwards and there's probably some sobriety issues as he stated at play there. It also shows the high of winning, right, and sort of how people want to behave and react after they finally do get that hit, after they've gone on a string of losses. And I loved it. The guy's bargaining, he's talking about his buddies bargaining for pizza and he's worried his wife is going to kill him. And then, oh, now he hit this though, it changes everything, right? And the guy's whole life is turning around and he makes it sound like, oh, it made his year, but that was in that moment right then and there. Who's to say that he didn't go right back to the track the next day to try to make next year, right? And to try to just keep on going and keep on chasing. I think it's a great example of everything that's wrong with the gambling industry. And they're betting on horses and they're at the racetrack and it is straight gambling and not necessarily sports betting. But that doesn't mean that they don't take this same approach and this same kind of logic and way of thinking and attitude into the sports betting realm. I think it's very likely that that is the behavior that we're seeing from the owner and founder of a sports book. Totally. It's just terrible. And this idea of don't quit, don't quit, don't quit, keep betting, keep betting, keep betting. At a certain point you got to break away, right, and take a break. And so that sort of brings us to our next topic, Pace, because you're on a break, you're taking a break and you are a big advocate for breaks from sports betting and stepping away and disconnecting when necessary. Talk to me a little bit about your approach to taking breaks.

Andrew Pace [00:15:10]:

Oh man, yeah, that's such a loaded question. For me personally, I think that this time of year was a time that in the past I definitely did take pretty significant breaks. I was such an advocate for this lifestyle of a sports value analyst. And what that lifestyle is, or at least was for me, to a certain extent was putting in remarkable amounts of know. Never missing a game in the NFL, never missing a game in college football, following every single in middle of August right through to the end of the playoff season for NHL and NBA and then really just unplugging putting it all away. Definitely some recreational bets throughout the summer, like your parlay by the pool strictly for entertainment purposes, with the intent of knowing that you'll probably have this betting budget over the summer that is going to lose. And then we just entered a really strange landscape where we came back from a COVID shutdown in sports and we had the NHL playoffs. The NBA playoffs intermingled with the start of the NFL season and then a weird baseball season in there too. Where, really until right now, this July. And now this is posted in August, where it was the first time in since that messed up season where the schedules were fully back on track. So we had shortened seasons, we had bubble seasons, we had no fans, we had seasons starting in January instead of October. And yeah, this first season was one that was completely uninterrupted from all of that. And it's kind of the third summer of inplayLIVE. And these past few summers, because of the COVID bubble and then because of the community, the unplugging has certainly been a challenge for me personally. Reason being is that it could be any level of the actual business side of inplayLIVE that requires full time work, but then obviously parlay that with the need to produce value to our community. And I guess where that became challenging for me was trying to be good at things that I actually wasn't as a bettor and then taking losses from not unplugging and not taking a break. And that was a hard lesson for me. That lesson was challenging from the standpoint of burnout stress your overall health. But it was also a challenging lesson from recognizing that some of the things that I was really good at betting at didn't translate as well as I would have liked them to. From one sport to the next, where I'd be like, you know, I can do this. Let's just go at it with the same mentality, the same sort of intensity and passion and let's see where we land and we're going to do it like we can do anything. We're unstoppable and hundreds of thousands of dollars of losses from not unplugging and not taking a break that I could afford to lose. But still I look at those losses as not true losses. I look at them as learning experiences. So that kind of brings me to the question that you just asked you're like, you're away right now. Well, I still resonate with all the things that I just said. It's just I've approached them in such a different way. Now where I go, you do have to take a day, because I wasn't taking a day or an hour. You do have to take a day. You do have to take a week. I might not be able to take those two or three months as much as I used to be able to, but because of that, I had my first ever profitable June and July 1 ever. I'd never had a profitable June or July personally. I know people in our group sure as hell have. But taking that know, unplugging, being able to focus on some other aspects of the business but also your health and your own personal well being, it speaks wonders in the grand scheme of things and then relating it back to what you just said about Portnoy. You go, you're encouraging, keep pushing, keep gambling, keep pushing, keep gambling. Well, if you're actually a professional sports bettor, taking that break allows for you to almost have this release of I don't need to bet everything. I don't need to FOMO and think that I'm missing out on something right now. You can go, so yesterday I took the day off. We're shooting this on Monday. Yesterday was Sunday. I know the group did really well yesterday and you can look at that with happiness because you go, I unplugged and things went well. And it proves that I don't always need to be there. And I don't mean me, Andrew Pace, I mean me, the sports bettor. I don't always need to be there. I'm going to pick up and head back in with a fresh clear head, value oriented and ready to go on the next opportunity that I do plug in for. And it's a game changer. And I think that applies. That stems way beyond sports betting. That stems know, you and your wife Shane taking a break where you go, I don't mean you and your wife taking a break like Ross and Rachel.

Shane Mercer [00:21:19]:

You go, hey, we got we brought a break.

Andrew Pace [00:21:21]:

Yeah, right. We don't have the kids. We don't have the kids tonight. We can go for a nice dinner. We can have a nice bottle of champagne. We can eat a freaking hundred dollar steak that someone cooked for us where we didn't cook ourselves. You can go home to a clean kitchen where you go, oh my God, we didn't have to do dishes tonight. Pick the kids up from the babysitter's place or whatever and go, holy smokes, was that ever nice for our relationship, our bond, our connection, right. And then applies to your work, your family, everything, right? Yeah. It's important.

Shane Mercer [00:21:57]:

I like what you said there, too, about FOMO and not feeling like you're missing out and not having to take every wager and not having to be totally tuned in because I had this similar conversation and sort of similar point of view from Coulter who I chatted with on last week's episode. And he was sort of saying, yeah, it's the middle of summer and I don't want to take every bet and I want to limit the number of wagers I'm taking in a day or in a week or whatever it may be. And I think a lot of people out there maybe who are in the sports betting arena, whether they're as a recreational bettor or as somebody who does this professionally or is aspiring to do it professionally, may have that. Feeling that they do have to be in it every single day and they can't miss a slate of games or it'll set them back in some ways. But I think from what you're saying is that that can actually be really counterproductive and can lead to a string of losses or huge losses. You said this is your first time ever having a profitable summer, june and July at you know, could you have had a profitable June and July if you were in the weeds?

Andrew Pace [00:23:16]:

Every single I think I think what Coulter said in last week's episode resonated a lot with me. And it's something that we as long standing members of the group had connected on in the past. And it is the reason not to bet. It's actually looking something and going, why would I not take this? So you could say, why would I take this? And you can check a whole bunch of boxes. It's this, it's that, it's value, it's this, it's that situation, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, the team, whatever the pitcher, whatever the case may be. But if you find a reason not to bet it, it's easy for it to lose or win where you were confident with your decision to not be a part of that particular wager. And then you find a bet where you go, I can't find a reason not to bet this. Which means you have to because you know it is something that's going to make you money over the long term. And when you take that approach to, I think any season, but in particular in the summer, especially with a lot of pregame bets, like really, especially with a lot of pregame bets, you take that approach, all of a sudden you go, holy smokes. It's a low volume and profitable environment. And for me that was an adjustment that I made because a lot of the betting I do in other seasons is I don't care you're going from a 56% hit rate to a 62% hit rate. I want all the ones at 56 because I know that's profitable over the long term. You can hit at a higher clip. But I'm going to keep gunning right around here because I know that that's something that I want money on. And that's been my approach from a volume standpoint in other times of the year and certainly with basketball and definitely with sometimes with football where I go, give me that volume, I want that. So that resonated with me quite a bit, actually, in previous years, which is advice that I would say stemmed from him that helped me in my betting journey. And that's the power of this whole thing, right, is lose for a couple of summers and you go, okay, who is winning? Why are they winning? What are they doing? Who is or is not fully involved. Why is this person not involved? Why is this person involved? Is the person that's involved losing versus not? And then all of a sudden you start to find this recipe. And from the standpoint of the membership and the community, I look at it and I go, I wouldn't say that you'd be crazy not to be with us for this time of year in the future, but I would. Say that you can still live a great lifestyle, still take time off, and then come in and out for really great times throughout a time of year where that same volume of, say, football or basketball isn't there but is still going to be successful for you overall. And that's been quite the learning curve for me personally. For sure.

Shane Mercer [00:26:29]:

You touched on something there too, that I think is super important to get at as well when it comes to this idea of taking a break. Because everywhere we go, these are with us in this day and age and we can all bet right from here, no matter where we are at any given time or point in the day and it doesn't matter who we're with or any of those things. Right. And when it comes to this idea of taking a break and looking for a reason not to place the wager is not being at your typical betting setup. So for me, that's my basement where I'm actively engaged in this role of betting and placing wagers on know, when I'm away from it, to me that is a reason all on its own not to place the wager because I'm not in my betting environment.

Andrew Pace [00:27:27]:

Yeah, Shane, I think that's a really good point, but I would also add to it you're talking about your phone and having access to all the bets and things like that. Well, that doesn't mean and this is the lesson, this is really the important and powerful lesson. Are you telling me that because you have your phone you have to bet? So I'll follow the game still. I'll be looking for value. I won't be in my setup, but I'm looking at things and I'm constantly saying no to them. Constantly no. Oh maybe let's look into this a little bit more. And then that might mean going back to my setup. That might mean making a call to someone even or a text where I'm like, hey, are you looking at this game? Are you in your setup? Right. Hey, are you betting this? Yeah on it right now. I think I'm going to take it. Oh, no passing for these reasons. Thanks. Right?

Andrew Pace [00:28:26]:

Power of the community for sure. But also really what I'm getting at is if you want to be successful at this you 100%, without any shadow of a doubt have to be comfortable not betting. That is the difference of addiction. I'm addicted to this shit 100%. But that's the difference of problem addiction and gambling. Versus long term successful decision making. Right. So you can be at your phone. That doesn't mean you don't have access to resources. But if you have to be betting, that's where this might not be for you, right?

Shane Mercer [00:29:09]:

Yeah. If you feel like you absolutely have to place a wager no matter what you're looking at or where you are, then that's probably a good sign that you need to take a break. Right. And not the kind of break that the books promote where it's, oh, I'm going to exclude myself for a 24 hours period or a 48 hours period on this particular book. But you actually need to put the sports books down, maybe for a day, maybe for a week, or maybe longer if you feel like you need to. But I think that message of taking a break is often lost in the sports betting ecosystem as a whole. And in fact, the opposite, as we saw from Portnoy, is often promoted that you just got to keep going. You just got to keep going. So for all of those rec bettors out there listening to us or aspiring sports value analysts, what would your one sort of final thought on breaks be for think?

Andrew Pace [00:30:09]:

There's so much more I could say, but at the same mean, it's not the most riveting stuff to talk about breaks from betting, but I'm going to just use the NFL season as a really good example of how you can move in and out of such a consuming time of year. And we've touched on this before at some point with inplayLIVE. I don't think we've mentioned it in this podcast, but the number one corporate expense in the United States is fantasy football. It's the biggest time theft sort of overall thing that companies spend money on by a landslide. And the reason for that, and it's not because there's games on every day. So you got the NFL where all the games are more or less on Sunday, right? The big slates on Sunday, that's when everyone plays there's two games outside of Sunday. So why on earth is everyone spending so much time when the games aren't on fantasy football and relating to a sport that's actually not being played that day? So when I look at the NFL, right, and if you're a pregame bettor and closing line value means everything to you, yes. You might be getting on those lines at very specific times, at specific times in the week where your models are telling you that now's the time and all that kind of stuff and you kind of have to be plugged in all the time. And then it's actually when the games are on that you can unplug because you have to be following what's going on with the Lions pregame. But from a live betting standpoint and what we do, you have all of Monday where you can get ready for the game, but it's just one. Game you can chill. You've got Tuesday and Wednesday with no games at all. Yeah, there's some baseball on, but NBA hasn't started, NHL hasn't started until the middle of October. So you have this six week window where there's a Monday night game, a Thursday night game. Yes, there's college on Saturday and obviously the full slate on Sunday. Those Tuesdays and Wednesdays. And Fridays, for that matter. Cherish them. Those are amazing times to fully unplug. Take your friends for dinner, go for brunch, go for a nice walk, take your dogs out, hang out with your kids, be with your wife, whatever the case may be. Football season is a brilliant time of year because of exactly that. And then, yeah, once NBA, NHL, college basketball starts getting mixed into that, it does become pretty full on. But even with that, pick your spots and then you go, okay, well, what about baseball season? Pace? There's games every single day. Well, we're shooting this on a Monday. I haven't looked at a baseball game on a Monday night. I don't know if I have this year once they're on. And the reason for that is I go it's low volume on Mondays. I really don't need to be fully a part of this on this particular night. Full well knowing Tuesday is going to roll around with the biggest slate of the week or Friday night is going to roll around with the biggest slate of the week. There's other days like Saturday or Sunday where it's the entire day, but it's not busy for the whole day. Pick that slate that's busy that you can get the most volume in in the shortest period of time and let the other ones go. And by doing that as a recreational bettor especially, you are training yourself to make smarter decisions and not to gamble every single game, every single moment, every single night.

Shane Mercer [00:33:26]:

Love it, Pace. Great message out there for everybody. Take those breaks, enjoy your summer. You don't have to keep on betting, you don't have to keep on chasing and you can give up, at least for a short amount of time. Take that break, give up, have a rest, and then get back at it with a fresh and clear mind.

Andrew Pace [00:33:46]:

Yeah, totally.

Shane Mercer [00:33:47]:

Great advice, Pace. All right, buddy. Well, I think that's it for this episode. Till next week, buddy. Keep beating those books.

Andrew Pace [00:33:52]:

Thanks.

Shane Mercer [00:33:53]:

Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or want to be featured on our podcast, drop a note in the comments below. And if you want to join inplayLIVE, use promo code 'BEHINDTHELINES'.