Episode 35

Hockey Is Back!

On this episode, we explore the fascinating dynamics of hockey betting and how hockey presents a plethora of opportunities for Sports Value Analysts. We start by examining the power of information and how bias can influence our analysis of data and the way we watch games.

We delve into the mindset of teams when playing weaker opponents, exploring how this can impact betting outcomes and the importance of monitoring metrics like score shots and time of possession. Whether it's analyzing the game itself or keeping an eye on coach decisions and team tendencies, we provide valuable insights for successful hockey betting.

As we discuss the exciting changes in the upcoming NHL season, we caution against being overly aggressive and highlight the shifts in how sports books handle hockey bets. With the legalization of betting in Ontario and across North America, the landscape has changed significantly, and we navigate through the complexities of pregame and live betting, ensuring you're equipped with the knowledge to make informed decisions.

🔑 Key Topics

00:03:04 Hockey grew in popularity despite challenges.

00:05:53 Successful hockey team in unlikely market thrives.

00:10:05 Legalization of betting in Ontario changed NHL betting.

00:11:31 Betting on sports relies on opportunities.

00:17:40 Analyzing game metrics and team behavior for betting opportunities in hockey.

00:21:46 Surprised by hockey hype, but became hooked.

00:23:27 Less knowledge, better analysis, personnel has impact.

00:27:39 NHL changes, betting strategy, coaching impact.

00:29:57 NHL coaches change, affecting team strategies.

00:33:39 Having fun and being transparent are crucial. Tracking bets shows progress and allows communication.

00:35:38 Keep beating books, subscribe and join inplayLIVE.

📚 Timestamped Overview

00:03:04 Growing up, the speaker played street hockey with Andrew Ladd and remembers him winning the Stanley Cup in his rookie year. In Carolina, people didn't know what hockey was. The speaker believes that Bettman has made hockey more exciting and entertaining.

00:05:53 Despite doubts, hockey in the desert has thrived in Vegas with an amazing product and party atmosphere.

00:10:05 Legalization of Ontario betting in North America led to significant changes, including higher NHL pregame odds and increased value in live betting.

00:11:31 Opportunities in decreased sports volume due to accurate handicapping, favoring underdogs performing well.

00:17:40 Analyzing game metrics, especially how teams handle leads, is crucial for successful betting in hockey. Tracking team tendencies can help identify betting opportunities.

00:21:46 Initially skeptical, I became hooked on hockey through inplayLIVE. It doesn't matter that I don't know much about the players or teams in our large group.

00:23:27 The less you know, the better. Bias-free analysis of data and game circumstances can lead to betting opportunities related to personnel.

00:27:39 Exciting changes in NHL, caution in betting on hockey, new coaches influence teams.

00:29:57 There are new coaching opportunities in six teams, with potential changes in coaching strategies. Previous data may no longer be relevant due to different approaches when leading or trailing in games.

00:33:39 Having fun is important. Be transparent and track bets.

🎞️ Top Quotes & Hooks

Massive Sports Plate in October: "We celebrate Thanksgiving. Well, we have a massive, massive sports feast that begins in October every year, right? We've got NFL football, it's in full swing and man, we're crushing it on that side of things. And now we've also got MLB playoffs."
— Shane Mercer [00:01:22 → 00:01:40]

The Growth of Hockey in Carolina: "I can remember that Stanley Cup final where people in Carolina were actually asking what the sport was. They didn't even know what it was...It was cheaper to fly in, buy your ticket in Carolina, pay for all your meals in Carolina, pay for your hotel in Carolina, than just the ticket of their opponent."
— Andrew Pace [00:03:48 → 00:03:59]

The Rise of Competitive Expansion Teams: "These expansion teams have become extremely competitive. They've gone to markets that I think Seattle is a slam dunk."
— Andrew Pace [00:05:43 → 00:05:50]

The Growth of the NHL: “Gary Bettman has done a phenomenal job at growing the league, growing the popularity of the sport and making it appeal to an American audience.”
— Shane Mercer [00:07:53 → 00:08:02]

The Inadequate Handicap of Hockey Betting: "But I would say that the sports books inadequately handicapped hockey for a very long time."
— Andrew Pace [00:09:58 → 00:10:05]

The Impact of Legalization on NHL Betting: "Up to about 2019, maybe 2018 to get a pregame favorite of -200 in the NHL was extremely uncommon. Extremely uncommon and just flip open the menu. You guys are listening to this? Flip open the menu for the week and take a look you're going to see -300 400 500 and yes I've seen the team I'm rocking here as a -600 underdog last season so very big changes in the way money is coming in and the way money is being handled and I think that there actually was value and again I am saying I think because I don't bet pregame I think there was value on some -150 to -200 NHL favorites pre 2018 but I honestly don't know."
— Andrew Pace [00:10:19 → 00:11:11]

The Future of Sports Betting in Arizona: "You can totally see how the legalization and the opening up of the market combined with this ingrained love for the sport is going to turn into a significant amount of wagers being placed on the games."
— Shane Mercer [00:13:00 → 00:13:16]

Mental Preparation in Sports: "There is that nature of sports that is completely and totally unavoidable, and that is where you're a heavy favorite and you expect to win a game."
— Andrew Pace [00:16:22 → 00:16:33]

Predicting Game Outcomes: "A team might be up two goals and they stop playing aggressive. They go, okay, guys, we're keeping three guys back, we're not racing two forwards, different formations, all that kind of stuff, and they're not even trying to score anymore."
— Andrew Pace [00:18:11 → 00:18:28]

Motivations and Metrics in Sports Analytics: "We often talk about teams motivations and where trying to align with their motivations. Or perhaps if you're a favorite going up against the heavy underdog your lack of motivation then you've got the coaching tendencies right and all of those other metrics that are happening within the game, like you mentioned, obviously the score, but shots on goal, time of possession, all that sort of stuff."
— Shane Mercer [00:19:16 → 00:19:42]

The Hype Around Hockey: "And so when I first joined inplayLIVE and I saw all of this hype around hockey, I was like, really? All right, these guys really like hockey."
— Shane Mercer [00:21:46 → 00:21:54]

Betting on Hockey: "It goes to show you that you don't need to be an expert in the sport to know how to bet on it and make money off of it over time."
— Shane Mercer [00:23:06 → 00:23:14]

The Importance of Data and Personnel in Betting: "So if you do have historic data for previous years and then obviously the current season for whatever it is that you're tracking or wagering on, and then obviously on top of that, what's going on in that particular game, the personnel isn't maybe as important as you think it is."
— Andrew Pace [00:23:52 → 00:24:10]

Hockey Strategies Are Really Amazing: “I've got to say that we are holding quite a bit back in terms of what we do for hockey... Because the hockey strategies are really amazing.”
— Shane Mercer [00:26:32 → 00:26:39]

Betting on Hockey: "If you're betting on hockey, it's really important to not come out of the gate overly aggressive because of the fact that each season is different."
— Andrew Pace [00:27:53 → 00:28:04]

New NHL Head Coaches: "Yeah, it's a bunch of coaches without necessarily NHL head coaching experience before."
— Andrew Pace [00:30:13 → 00:30:19]

The Impact of Scoring in Sports Betting: "Everything is impacted in a fraction of a second because that's all that it takes to score."
— Andrew Pace [00:31:06 → 00:31:11]

Betting In The Dark: "And if you are betting consistently, regularly, make sure that you're keeping them aware of what it is you're doing. We don't want people out there sort of betting in the dark."
— Shane Mercer [00:33:31 → 00:33:38]

🤔 Q&A

How does having bias affect how one analyzes data in hockey?

Answer: Having bias can influence how one interprets and analyzes information, potentially hindering a fair assessment of a team's performance or potential outcomes.

Why are historical data and current season performance considered important in hockey?

Answer: Historical data and current season performance provide valuable insights into a team's capabilities, patterns, and trends, helping to make more informed predictions and betting decisions.

In what sport is individual personnel more crucial for betting on player props?

Answer: Football is a sport where individual personnel, such as specific players, can have a significant impact on betting outcomes, especially when it comes to player props.

What metrics can be incorporated to identify betting opportunities related to personnel in hockey?

Answer: Metrics such as coach performance and game analytics can be utilized to identify betting opportunities related to personnel decisions and their impact on a team's performance.

What was the speaker's personal experience playing hockey with Andrew Ladd?

Answer: The speaker recalls playing street hockey with Andrew Ladd and remembers him winning the Stanley Cup in his rookie year, showcasing his talent and potential.

How did people in Carolina perceive hockey during the Stanley Cup final?

Answer: People in Carolina may not have been as knowledgeable about hockey, but the tickets for the Stanley Cup final were relatively cheaper compared to the opponent's, indicating lesser demand.

According to the speaker, how has NHL commissioner Gary Bettman improved hockey?

Answer: The speaker believes that Gary Bettman has made hockey more exciting and has implemented rule changes that have enhanced the sport's competitiveness and entertainment value.

How does the speaker contrast hockey with the NFL?

Answer: The speaker highlights the unique elements of hockey, such as its ice and skate components, as well as the physicality and ability to hit and fight, which differentiates it from the aggression and high injury risk in football (NFL).

What team's success has proven doubters wrong about hockey in non-traditional markets?

Answer: The speaker mentions that the Vegas Golden Knights' success as an expansion team has shattered doubts about hockey's viability in non-traditional markets like Las Vegas.

What mentality do teams sometimes have when facing weaker opponents in hockey and other sports?

Answer: In sports like hockey, teams may not be as focused when playing weaker opponents and may be looking ahead to tougher games, potentially impacting performance and betting outcomes.

❇️ Important Notes & Bullets

  • Importance of information and analysis in sports betting

  • The impact of bias on data analysis and game watching

  • The significance of historical data and current season performance

  • The role of personnel in football betting and player props

  • Incorporating metrics like coach performance and game analytics in betting

  • Personal story of playing street hockey and witnessing a Stanley Cup win

  • The growth of hockey in non-traditional markets like Carolina and Vegas

  • The excitement and uniqueness of hockey compared to other sports

  • Doubts about hockey's success in non-traditional markets

  • The success of the Vegas Golden Knights and their impact on hockey

  • The mindset of not giving their best against weaker opponents in sports

  • Importance of considering team dynamics and performance in betting

  • Changes in the NHL and caution in hockey betting

  • The impact of coaching changes in hockey

  • The shift in sports betting landscape with legalization and odds changes

  • Consideration of metrics in hockey betting like shots, time of possession, and goals

  • The impact of team mentality and coaching decisions on betting outcomes

  • Opportunities for successful betting in hockey

  • The speaker's upcoming guest and their focus on hockey betting strategies

  • Encouragement for listeners to join and become members for more information

  • The speaker's confidence in their hockey betting strategies and live betting advantage

  • The potential for capitalizing on big underdogs in hockey betting

  • The influence of coaches and how they handle situations in hockey

  • Comparisons between hockey and other sports in terms of handicapping and success

  • The growth and success of expansion teams in the NHL

  • Fast-paced nature of scoring in hockey and its impact on betting

  • Importance of learning, having fun, and approaching hockey betting wisely

📜 Full Transcript

Andrew Pace [00:00:00]:

So you might be like, this guy…This guy makes money betting. And then he just told me to look at the score of the game.

Shane Mercer [00:00:19]:

Hello and welcome back to another episode of Behind the Lines, the only podcast purifying the sports betting industry. Remember to like, download, subscribe, follow us on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, everywhere you get your podcast. And if you have a sports betting story you want to share, maybe the books aren't treating you right. Drop us a note in the comments below. We will be sure to get back to you. We might feature your story here on the podcast. We might even bring you on and invite you on to share it with the world. All right, I'm your host, Shane Mercer.

Shane Mercer [00:00:46]:

That guy over there, Andrew Pace, the founder of the most sophisticated sports betting community on planet Earth inplayLIVE. And Pacer, today we are talking about NHL. The hockey season is upon us. By the time this episode comes out on Wednesday, the puck will have already dropped. Season begins Tuesday, October 10, and so hockey action will be in full swing and it just kind of adds to the plate, the massive sports plate that October brings here in Canada. We celebrate Thanksgiving. Well, we have a massive, massive sports feast that begins in October every year, right? We've got NFL football, it's in full swing and man, we're crushing it on that side of things. And now we've also got MLB playoffs.

Shane Mercer [00:01:40]:

I mean, important baseball heartbreak for the Blue Jays. I hate to have to bring it up, but it was tough but meaningful, baseball being played in October, which is always fun. And now, of course, we got hockey starting and not too far off from that, we've got NBA, but today's episode all about the NHL. Pace, when it comes to your history of betting on NHL, give us a little bit of a sense of the kind of success you've had.

Andrew Pace [00:02:07]:

The success has been remarkable. Betting on hockey into the seven figures, a lot of fun, a big learning process. And I think what I've done in my lifetime is just followed the trends of the way the game has changed throughout from the 90s onward. And I wasn't betting back then, but just noticing that analytics, I guess, had been missing in hockey and started to become a greater factor in the way coaches were playing certain scenarios and training their players how to play them. And then obviously a lot of rule changes over the decades. I remember the old two line pass rule and foot in the crease rule, and I think Gary BETMAN, some people, like a lot of people, whenever a commissioner comes on the screen, they boo the commissioner. Gary Bettman's. Definitely no exception.

Andrew Pace [00:03:04]:

He gets booed so hard when he comes on the so growing up playing like street hockey, I played street hockey with Andrew Ladd a couple of times and he lived on my block, and I remember him winning the Stanley Cup in Carolina in his rookie year, and he actually brought the cup home to our neighborhood. But point being, I can remember that Stanley Cup final where people in Carolina were actually asking what the sport was. They didn't even know what it was. So if people said hockey, they'd go like, oh, what's that? And I can't remember who they played in that final, but it was cheaper to fly in, buy your ticket in Carolina, pay for all your meals in Carolina, pay for your hotel in Carolina, than just the ticket of their opponent. And they were almost giving the tickets away, trying to get people aware of hockey. But the point of what I'm bringing up is that I think Betman's actually done a good job of making hockey and the rules more exciting. To the point now where we've got a product where I think it's highly entertaining, as entertaining as any sport and unique in the sense that know it's played on ice and skates and you can hit and fight and some of the things that happen. Like, you just look at the NFL and how aggressive and how many injuries are in the NFL and how physical the NFL is.

Andrew Pace [00:04:38]:

And then you just watch a bench clear and brawl in hockey where no one gets a penalty. You just think like, what if this was the NFL, right? Know there'd be fine suspensions, like you name kind of, I want to say it's kind of great for that, but.

Andrew Pace [00:04:55]:

At the same time it's so strange. But yeah, Betman's done a good job of creating a product that I think is very competitive in the world of sports, but also one that was potentially having a little bit of regression or failing to an extent if we rewind the tape. And you think about a team like the Atlanta Thrashers that started and then failed, and yet obviously now expansion teams just being like major factors in the NHL, the Vegas Golden Knights just won the freaking Stanley Cup. And when you guys are watching this, I will have attended the cup ceremony at the opening game. And sure enough, they're playing the other expansion team, the Seattle Kraken, who in their second season made the playoffs. So these expansion teams have become extremely competitive. They've gone to markets that I think Seattle is a slam dunk. They've got an amazing sports fan base.

Andrew Pace [00:05:53]:

But people said, we already saw it with the jersey I'm rocking right now. We already saw it with Arizona. You can't do hockey in the desert. That's what they said. And they said it'll never work in Vegas if you have been to a Vegas Golden Knights game, you know what I'm about to say, but if you haven't, you have to go because it's a party with everything that Las Vegas has to offer. So a Cirque show, a show a party, drummers, dancers, cheerleaders, and as my buddy puts it, it's a party and hockey is just there. But it is such a well built stadium, but also just such a great product that not only has Vegas been a remarkably successful expansion team and a remarkable success for the league itself in creating this amazing product in a market that isn't known for hockey. They have really proven just how great hockey is by doing all those things.

Andrew Pace [00:07:05]:

And they freaking won the Stanley Cup. Shane, I know you're in Toronto so we're not even going to go there. But people make fun of Leafs fans and people make fun of Leafs because of their struggles in the playoffs. Well, I'm in, you know, it's like make fun all you know, we don't even make the playoffs ever. You got this freaking team that comes in and wins the Stanley Cup in like their fourth season and they've been to two finals.

Andrew Pace [00:07:32]:

Maybe it was their fifth season, I don't know.

Andrew Pace [00:07:34]:

They've been to two finals, but yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:07:35]:

Anyways, I think Betman's done a great job with the sport. The product is excellent, it's highly entertaining and go to a Knights game if you guys ever can. It's a great experience.

Shane Mercer [00:07:44]:

Yeah. Okay. A lot of touch on know, I do agree that one, Gary Bettman might be the most hated commissioner in all of sports, but yes, at the same time he's done a phenomenal job at growing the league, growing the popularity of the sport and making it appeal to an American audience. There has to be some kudos to be shared there. Absolutely. I don't know how many Canadians are on that Las Vegas Golden Knights team, but it is always a bit frustrating to see those American teams perform better than our Canadian teams, isn't it?

Andrew Pace [00:08:24]:

Oh, well, I mean from that standpoint, when was the last time a Canadian team even won the Stanley Cup? Or I can think of heartbreak. Canucks 2011. I know. The Oilers, the Flames, they all have been to game sevens of the Stanley Cup and can't get it done. The Montreal Canadiens

Shane Mercer [00:08:43]:

Ya we saw them go and yeah, it's tough on that front. Okay, popularity of the sport growing. How are the sports books treating hockey in comparison to the other big major sports? Football, basketball, baseball.

Andrew Pace [00:09:01]:

So if we look at NHL over the last decade and that's really where I've been betting it in the last ten years, I would say, is where I've been betting this to a certain degree of success that's actually providing me with a positive return. And if you're watching this, we do Bet live. That is what I'm referencing when I'm talking about success. But what I'm going to touch on here is a little bit of pregame. So there's something that I always say in baseball, I say every team wins 60 games. Well, in hockey it's kind of a similar statement, but there's half the games say every team wins like 30 games maybe It's 20 but Every Team wins 2030 Games. So you do have that element of obviously chaos in every single sport that we cover in any sport period where any team can beat any team. But I would say that the sports books inadequately handicapped hockey for a very long time.

Andrew Pace [00:10:05]:

And the legalization of betting across North America, but more specifically the legalization of Ontario. It really changed things, like, significantly. And I'll tell you up to about 2019, maybe 2018 to get a pregame favorite of -200 in the NHL was extremely uncommon. Extremely uncommon and just flip open the menu. You guys are listening to this? Flip open the menu for the week and take a look you're going to see -300 400 500 and yes I've seen the team I'm rocking here as a -600 underdog last season so very big changes in the way money is coming in and the way money is being handled and I think that there actually was value and again I am saying I think because I don't bet pregame I think there was value on some -150 to -200 NHL favorites pre 2018 but I honestly don't know. I just think there must have been if this is how the game is being handicapped today. So that has been a dramatic change in live betting as well. Because now, instead of having a whole bunch of pickums skating around on the ice, you do have this minus four 5600 favorite that's out there.

Andrew Pace [00:11:31]:

And how do you bet on that? Right. And I think the answer to that obviously depends, but there certainly are opportunities because of it. But I will say that the Volume of the Sport has decreased if the Game has been More correctly handicapped. Because if you have a favorite that should have been mine that used to be -150 or -200 that's now minus five or -600 it's really hard to get any value in on the favorite side. And I Only want to be Wagering on an Underdog when that underdog is actually Performing. So now we're talking about this really rare game. We've got a plus 300, plus 400 pregame underdog that is actually outperforming their opponent and then presenting opportunities to wager on. So, yeah, that whole transition has been really interesting.

Andrew Pace [00:12:33]:

And you ask, how do the books handle it? Compare to the other sports? I think it's become more of a focus for them. Especially since Ontario got legalized, because I don't know any statistics about the handle sport by sport per specific region. But I would presume that one of the most wagered on sports in Ontario is hockey. And that shift you could really see last season.

Shane Mercer [00:12:57]:

North of the border. Absolutely Right. You can totally see how the legalization and the opening up of the market combined with this ingrained love for the sport is going to turn into a significant amount of wagers being placed on the games. Absolutely. And I love that you are rocking that Arizona Coyotes jersey there. I almost called them the nickname that we give them within inplayLIVE. But we absolutely love Arizona teams at inplayLIVE. If you want to find out why, well, you can always join and hear the stories behind it, but we have that promo code for you 'BEHINDTHELINES' all caps.

Shane Mercer [00:13:39]:

But yes, we absolutely love Arizona teams for that reason. They're often underdogs and they're underdogs that can often outperform expectations. So Pace, when you're looking for these teams out there on the ice and you're watching them play, what are you looking for? How do you determine whether a team is outperforming expectation?

Andrew Pace [00:13:59]:

Well, I think there's some metrics that you can use with any sport and they're obvious. So you might be like, this guy.

Andrew Pace [00:14:09]:

Makes money betting and then he just told me to look at the score of the game. But the yeah, let's make things simple and you should be having fun with this stuff.

Andrew Pace [00:14:22]:

So you don't need some know, Harvard degree to figure some of this stuff out. But the first metric, and I think this is any sport, so if we're talking about the Arizona Coyotes, the Arizona Diamondbacks or the Arizona Cardinals, again, Arizona.

Andrew Pace [00:14:38]:

Diamondbacks, they're underdogs twice, wild card and.

Andrew Pace [00:14:42]:

Boom, two and o and off to the next round of the playoffs. So Arizona being underdogs just seems like it's been very consistent in the world of sports in the last few years. But yeah, I mean the score is the first most obvious one. The second one with hockey specifically is going to be time of possession shots on goal. That gives you a little bit of a snapshot of how that team's playing and that doesn't mean that they need to be dominating them. But is this a game? Are there two teams out there that are going back and forth? Right. And then of course is actually just watching the game itself and with big underdogs some crazy lines can pop up, right? Like you might be able to snag something in the first period where potentially they don't even need to score to win the bet, they just need to not be scored on. And if they are playing well, that's great.

Andrew Pace [00:15:39]:

The other thing too about early in games, so this is one that's really consistent with the NBA. There is 80 game schedules, right? So hockey, basketball, and then of course baseball, you come out and dog it a little bit against a dog sometimes. And there was a clip from a few years back and it was, I think it was Carl Anthony Towns playing. He was playing fortnite with someone and it was another NBA player and he was about to go to bed and he's like, who are you playing tomorrow? And he's like the hawks. And he's like, oh, you good for one more game. So essentially saying like, you don't need a good sleep, you're playing the right? And there is that nature of sports that is completely and totally unavoidable, and that is where you're a heavy favorite and you expect to win a game. And mentally you might be john talked about this with college football. You might be looking towards your game against the Lightning or the Knights or whomever, and not as focused on your game against Arizona.

Andrew Pace [00:16:47]:

And maybe you didn't game plan for them as much as you would any other team or practice for them as much as any other team, and you might find yourself down to nothing early in the game, right? And that doesn't mean these guys are going to win. It just usually, oftentimes early on in games with these high volume schedules, you can catch a favorite that's starting a little slow. And the flip side is, of course, the underdog who goes, these guys aren't giving us a chance. Let's go put everything out there that we possibly can. And I remember we had bet on the Sharks last year. This isn't a good story, unfortunately, but.

Andrew Pace [00:17:23]:

We were just going nuts. The Sharks went up four two, I think, with like a minute 30 left in the third period, and they almost lost the game in regulation, but they ended up losing it in overtime.

Andrew Pace [00:17:36]:

So we lost our bet, but all of a sudden the favorite can go.

Andrew Pace [00:17:40]:

Hey, let's just turn the jets on here a little bit. And that's all part of successful betting as well, is looking at what's happening in the game itself. So some of those metrics, like the score shots, time of possession, but then obviously seeing how that transitions over time throughout the game, because that same favorite mentality, regardless of who's in the lead, can flip in the middle of the game based on the coach, based on how certain teams handle having a lead. So a team might be up two goals and they stop playing aggressive. They go, okay, guys, we're keeping three guys back, we're not racing two forwards, different formations, all that kind of stuff, and they're not even trying to score anymore. And sometimes when you see that, you go, well, where does that leave us from a betting standpoint? And, yeah, if you are paying attention to these kind of things, you can start to track, of course, the wagers that you've made, but also teams tendencies and how they handle certain situations, like how does this particular team handle a two plus goal lead. And once you can database that a little bit, you can start to find opportunities really for any sport. But I think hockey, hockey is a sport with a lot of opportunity.

Andrew Pace [00:19:08]:

So when you see this stuff in real time, then you can start to take advantage of it.

Shane Mercer [00:19:13]:

Yeah. So you touched on a few things there. We often talk about teams motivations and where trying to align with their motivations. Or perhaps if you're a favorite going up against the heavy underdog your lack of motivation then you've got the coaching tendencies right and all of those other metrics that are happening within the game, like you mentioned, obviously the score, but shots on goal, time of possession, all that sort of stuff. So do you track all of this and kind of what goes into the data compilation and the analytics of it all?

Andrew Pace [00:19:52]:

Yeah, and when you bring that up, it's funny, it reminds me of a conversation I had with a guy who does help us quite a bit with our analytics and hockey and everything that we do track. So, yeah, we track a lot of stuff, more than I can process myself. And sometimes when I see our database of information for hockey, it's just incredible what we've put together. So not allowed to say his name, but shout out to that guy that people know who he is that you're not allowed to talk about in our group. But he said to me, I'm like, hey, man, I'd love to have you on to discuss hockey. And I think this was for maybe like a Q and A with our members. And he goes, Honestly, I'd be embarrassed going on. I don't know any players in the league.

Andrew Pace [00:20:41]:

I don't know anyone. And I think that one of the things that's happened within inplayLIVE is a whole bunch of people that joined to make money betting that didn't follow hockey, that a lot of people now say they love hockey or it's their favorite sport or have really gotten into it, but I myself can speak for my own situation. I really don't know personnel, I know some guys, but there are some diehard hockey fans in our group where they say a player's name or whatever, and I don't even know what team he's on or if he's a veteran or a rookie or anything.

Shane Mercer [00:21:16]:

Okay, Pace, I can totally relate to what you're getting at there because I knew nothing about hockey. Okay, I'm in Toronto, and you can see behind me, I've got a lot of basketball stuff. I love football. I'm a big Jays fan. And hockey kind of ranks significantly lower on the list for me. In fact, I mentioned those sports. I also love MMA, I enjoy golf. And so hockey really falls down the list for me in terms of the sports that I'm interested in, sports that I'm into.

Shane Mercer [00:21:46]:

And so when I first joined inplayLIVE and I saw all of this hype around hockey, I was like, really? All right, these guys really like hockey. Fine, here we are, we'll bet on some hockey. And I'm one of those people that over the course of the season, it became the kind of thing where it's like, oh, Tuesday is here. We got a big slate of puck tonight. And I'm telling my wife and she's like, who are you? Yeah, I know players on the leafs. I know some players. The big players on the different teams and the stars and that kind of thing. But for the most part, I don't know much about these players, I don't know much about the personnel, and I don't want to say it doesn't matter, but when you're with a huge group of people like we are, at inplayLIVE, it kind of doesn't matter.

Shane Mercer [00:22:33]:

Or I can lean on other people's strengths and sort of lean on those people who do know a lot of that information. And then like the guy you mentioned who cannot be named, who we did invite to come on the show to talk about hockey, and who I hopefully will get on the show at some point later in the season to talk about hockey, not knowing and kind of being embarrassed of this idea. Well, I actually don't know that much about the sport well, or know that much about the actual teams and the players and that kind of thing, or the history. It goes to show you that you don't need to be an expert in the sport to know how to bet on it and make money off of it over time. So what would you say to the average recreational sports bettor, who was maybe like me and more interested in just football or basketball and those kinds of sports and sort of didn't really ever consider hockey?

Andrew Pace [00:23:27]:

Yeah, well, we kind of make a joke sometimes the less you know, the better, but the actual because and then I always say information is power, which obviously contradicts each other when I say the less you know, the better. What it is, is no bias heading into the rink in this particular example. So when you don't have that bias, that allows you to just simply look at that data and then watch what's going on in that particular game. So if you do have historic data for previous years and then obviously the current season for whatever it is that you're tracking or wagering on, and then obviously on top of that, what's going on in that particular game, the personnel isn't maybe as important as you think it is. And I would say that in football, let's say that you have the star quarterback go down. Personnel is pretty important. In football, if you're betting on player props, I would say personnel is pretty important. And then when you factor in those same metrics, so the coach and the analytics and how that game's going and all that kind of stuff, that can oftentimes lead to opportunities betting that relate to personnel.

Andrew Pace [00:24:42]:

The handle for hockey is far less than football. The handle for the NHL is far less than the NFL. So we don't necessarily have a lot of those same markets relating to personnel. And at the same time, yards is a huge thing in football, and they're consistent and they're ongoing in common in the NBA, points are consistent, they're fast, they're ongoing, whereas in the NHL, if you have a ten goal game, that's an extremely high scoring game. So you're looking at a couple of goals, a period, typically speaking based on averages over time, and you're not betting on how long one player has the puck. Right. So from that standpoint, personnel isn't necessarily important, but we do have some guys in the group that are really dialed into personnel and they're betting on shots on goal and things like that. But again, a lot of that isn't live.

Andrew Pace [00:25:39]:

You do have to get those bets in pregame, so it isn't necessarily based on what you're seeing in that game now, it's something that you have to have data patterns from previous games and then obviously, knowledge of what's going on in that particular game. Like, as an example is said player on the power play tonight that usually isn't, and the books haven't handicapped that properly as it relates to maybe an assist, a goal, shots on goal, all that kind of stuff. So there are personnel opportunities in hockey, like without debate, but I would say overall it eliminates your bias and it allows you to go into any one given game without any fanship or particular thought process towards who is or is not playing in that game.

Shane Mercer [00:26:30]:

Right. Well, I've got to say that we are holding quite a bit back in terms of what we do for hockey. If you really want to learn and find out what inplayLIVE bets on when it comes to hockey, I encourage you to join, sign up, become a member, use that promo code 'BEHINDTHELINES', all caps, and you will find out what it is exactly that we're doing to bet on hockey. Because the hockey strategies are really amazing. And when it comes to live betting, it's great that it doesn't necessarily take the same kind of time commitment that perhaps NFL takes or that NBA takes. And as Pace kind of mentioned in here, too, is that there's tons of opportunity to capitalize on big underdogs. And so that's always appealing when you have those really big numbers. All right, Pace, we're just running out of time here, but is there anything else you'd like to add on hockey before we say goodbye?

Andrew Pace [00:27:39]:

Yeah, I think that heading into this season there's a lot of really exciting changes in the NHL and I think that this is pretty consistent with the NHL. So if you're betting on hockey, and I'm not referring to the NHL, if you're betting on hockey, it's really important to not come out of the gate overly aggressive because of the fact that each season is different. And especially when I reference my start with the NHL, analytics have changed and rules have changed significantly throughout that time. And then the way the sports books handle everything relating to the sport has changed, not kind of like drastically. So regardless of what you're betting on, make sure that you're wagering on things that are consistent with how that team typically performs in the situation that they are currently in. And then there's a whole other series of factors relating to sort of the middle to the end of the season as it relates to the playoffs and the motivations associated with those. So there's six teams with new coaches this season, 123456. And what's interesting is, typically in the NHL, when you have a coaching change, you can point to that team's or sorry, that coach's previous experience.

Andrew Pace [00:29:06]:

And what's crazy is we have a new coach for the Anaheim Ducks. Great. I mean, that team's awful. They got to try something, right? And his name is Greg Cronin and he was the head coach of the Avalanche in the you know, we get a new guy that comes into the league and just like with football, when you see Matt Rule come in and coach Carolina, you could sometimes see some crazy, um, washington Capitals have a new coach. Well, he was the Maple Leafs assistant coach, so he doesn't have head coaching experience. Columbus Blue Jackets have a new coach and he was the Jackets assistant, so he got promoted in that team. The Flames coach was the Flames assistant, the Flames new coach. The Rangers stole the head coach from the Capitals, the previous head coach from the Capitals.

Andrew Pace [00:29:57]:

So that's usually what we see is, oh, he was the head coach for the Canucks, or he was the head coach for the Predators. And you go, oh, right, right, that guy. And then you can look at some of your old data and things like that on that particular coach. But, yeah, it's a bunch of coaches without necessarily NHL head coaching experience before. And then Nashville is a new head coach and he was from the Panthers and last season was the Devil's assistant coach. So when we look at these six teams, that means for me that there are potentially new opportunities. And you can almost throw your data in the trash from those teams in previous seasons because of the fact that the way coaches attack with the lead or sit back could be a major factor in how those particular coaches handle those situations and then how they play when they're down, like, do they give up? Do they throw in the towel or are they playing super aggressive, trying to come back and win? All those types of things. And hockey is one of these sports where the lines don't just kind of change.

Andrew Pace [00:31:06]:

Everything is impacted in a fraction of a second because that's all that it takes to score. And scoring is probably most comparable to soccer or European football, but the volume of scoring is obviously higher. So everything changes in an instant, in 1 second. So when those lines open back up, you're in a completely new situation than you just were previously. And that presents opportunity. So with any sport head into it very level headed, very much. With The Mindset of Learning and not risking significant money and Then With Success and With Success only Ramp Up from there if you are betting on Pregame Hockey remember when you're looking at A -400 -300 -600 favorite that every team they're playing against more or less is going to win 20 to 30 Games. So do you want to be betting on that line, based on that information? Factor that into your decision making? And as always with everything, just make sure you're having fun.

Shane Mercer [00:32:15]:

I love it, great pieces of advice there. Always start small at the beginning of a season and ramp up with success. Only with success. I love that. That can apply to every sport, but absolutely with hockey, 100%. And you mentioned the speed of hockey. Well, you know what? There's another fast sport that's about to begin. We have the NBA season also kicking off this month.

Shane Mercer [00:32:36]:

We will have an NBA episode coming out for all of you after this one. So next week, you can expect an NBA episode. Really excited to dive into that and talk a little bit about NBA wagering. And we will plan to have more hockey episodes for you too, throughout the season. Kind of checking in like we did with the NFL last week, doing a bit of a quarterly check. You know, these are sports we are going to be on top of from a betting perspective, throughout the entire sports season. There's so much going on. It's that busy time of year.

Shane Mercer [00:33:10]:

And then we got college basketball geez coming up. That's pretty soon, too. In November. So it's really starting to get busy out there. If you are betting on all of these sports too, just remember to make sure you're prioritizing non sports betting time. Your loved ones, your friends, your family make sure you're putting in that time with them as well. And if you are betting consistently, regularly, make sure that you're keeping them aware of what it is you're doing. We don't want people out there sort of betting in the dark. Right Pace?

Andrew Pace [00:33:39]:

100%. I think that having fun is extremely important. Being transparent with the people that are in your life that are allowing you to do it. And then arguably, above, arguably more important than that is you don't need to track every bet. I believe that that's very important to do so that you can see how you've done over time. But tracking money in, money out, even if it was just one bank account that you use specifically for betting, it allows you to see what was in there and what's gone or what's come back in. And at least if you have that information, it allows you to go to those people and say, hey, look, I know you don't like it, but it's a passion of mine. And this is my bank account that has performed well over the course of time.

Andrew Pace [00:34:26]:

But The Flip Side is Going Holy Smokes this isn't working for me and I am wasting a lot of time on this. I either need to sharpen my axe and find a group like inplayLIVE that can help me or I need to move on from this and really just take a recreational or entertainment approach going forward. So factor all that stuff into all of the fall as it relates to betting. And, yeah, enjoy it because it's a great time of year to hunker down. And on that same note, with balance, get out there, get some exercise and make sure you're moving your body at the same time.

Andrew Pace [00:35:03]:

Go play some of these sports.

Shane Mercer [00:35:05]:

Go play some of these sports. Absolutely right. Get moving out there. For sure. 100%. And we can sort of pound the drum on this. I will continue beating the drum. Tracking is key.

Shane Mercer [00:35:15]:

Money management key. We can never harp on that stuff enough. So have fun, but do those things so that you can show people your results or you can evaluate your own results and figure out what you need to do next if it's not going well. Great advice, Pace. As always. Looking forward to chatting with you again next week for the NBA episode. And who knows, maybe we'll have a special guest on then too. All right, till next week, budy.

Shane Mercer [00:35:38]:

Keep beating those books. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of behind the Lines. Remember to, like, download and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify and everywhere you get your podcasts, have a betting story or want to be featured on our podcast, drop a note in the comments below. And if you want to join inplayLIVE. Use promo code 'BEHINDTHELINES'.


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👋 About The Host & Guests

Shane Mercer is the host of Behind The Lines and a journalist with nearly two decades of experience covering news and sports in Canada. He is well versed in digital, television and radio platforms. Shane enjoys the outdoors, sports, and spending time with his wife and three daughters. 

Andrew Pace has achieved remarkable success in the world of hockey betting, with his wagers reaching seven-figure sums. His journey in this field has been a thrilling and enlightening learning process. Throughout his lifetime, Pace has keenly observed the changing trends of the game since the 1990s. Particularly, he noticed the absence of analytics in hockey and how it gradually gained prominence, influencing coaches in their strategies and player training. Over the decades, Pace witnessed numerous rule changes in the sport, such as the old two-line pass rule and foot in the crease rule. Even the infamous Gary Bettman, who often faces jeering from audiences whenever he appears on the screen, did not escape Pace's keen scrutiny.