Episode 39

Andrew Pace [00:00:00]:

I think John's betting like, honestly, I'm looking at John. I think John's betting right now. Like, I think John.

GosuThune [00:00:08]:

Might have bet USC women over 80 and a half points.

GosuThune [00:00:13]:

Might have won.

Shane Mercer [00:00:14]:

All in. Good luck. Hello and welcome to another episode of Behind the Lines, the only podcast purifying the sports betting industry. How do we do it? Well, we do it by teaching you how the sports books work, the tricks and traps they've set to take your money. And by doing that, we hope to make you a long term winner instead of a long term loser. Remember to, like, download subscribe, follow us on all the socials @inplayLIVE. And if you want to see what inplayLIVE is all about, you want to go behind the curtain and check it out. We got a promo code for you that is 'BEHINDTHELINES'.

Shane Mercer [00:00:55]:

All caps. All right, today we're back on the topic of NFL, as we have just sort of crossed over the halfway mark. Now that we're into a 17 week season, it's kind of like, well, is it eight weeks? Is it nine weeks? What's the middle? I'd say we're living right in the middle right now. And so we are going to look back at the first half and see what's working, what isn't, and look at what the books are doing. All right, with me we've got Andrew pace, the founder of inplayLIVE. We've got the golden goose himself, kenny huber, a sports betting professional and a coach over at inplayLIVE. And we've got another pro from the community. GosuThune, also known as John Wilson.

Shane Mercer [00:01:33]:

Guys, thanks so much for joining me again. How are you? How is everybody?

Andrew Pace [00:01:35]:

Doing? Great, doing great. Shane, ready to roll.

Shane Mercer [00:01:39]:

Awesome. Guys, so glad to have you back here for this NAFL halftime report. All right, goose, you're on your way to five mil. How are we doing? Any setbacks? Smooth sailing. How's it going out there?

The Golden Goose [00:01:51]:

It's been going quite well in the NFL. Absolutely awesome.

Shane Mercer [00:01:56]:

Love to hear it. John, you've been trying to make fewer bad bets. Is that working?

GosuThune [00:02:02]:

Think so, I think so. Last night I think I had a bet where we didn't win until the end of the game, but it was for the first half, so I felt like that one was probably pretty bad. But other than that, most of my bets have been, I think, narrowed down and been pretty good, so I've been pretty satisfied.

Shane Mercer [00:02:19]:

Happy to hear that we're still getting those wins. Pace halfway through the season, and you recently posted a pretty cool reel on instagram. Some books you've run up pretty high. Tell us about that run from a few grand to, what, 70 than that, maybe.

Andrew Pace [00:02:35]:

Yeah, all three books are clipped now, and it finished out at 80,000 on three books in one week. So that was a really fun run. I think that's probably my biggest challenge right now, and I really experienced it yesterday. I think in Canada in general, it isn't easy to necessarily move big amounts of money around unless you're using crypto. So it can be hard sometimes to get the bets in that you really intended to. So a lot of times I'm dealing with small deposits. So that particular video that I made was $3,002 deposits. Actually one of them was $2,500, all Canadian.

Andrew Pace [00:03:17]:

So if you're watching from the US. It's peanuts. So, yeah, $6,500 I deposited into those three books and about seven, eight days later it was at $80,000. And those books are done. And I think that one of the challenges as a professional bettor. So you go, oh, woe is me, the guy who made 80 grand last week, what he wants to bet on a game. So to give you an example of this week, these sports books that limited me, you don't have that money necessarily back from those sports books because getting paid can sometimes be a little bit of a pain, obviously. But then when you go to work with a new sports book now, where you make a similar deposit, like a $2,000 deposit, like that, you can't necessarily be making the larger wagers that you potentially were with that bigger bankroll that you had worked up to.

Andrew Pace [00:04:09]:

So you have to repeat the process. And sometimes that can involve challenges with actually getting books funded. So yeah, I mean, it's a really positive thing, obviously, but the sustainability of once you get up at that level with this, okay, I turned 6000 into 80,000, and then deploying from there can be a real challenge as a winning sports bettor a good problem to have.

Shane Mercer [00:04:32]:

Of course, absolutely. And I know that you're an absolute pro at kind of just starting way down here and ramping it up real fast like you did there. So congrats on that week. Amazing stuff, man. So, so great to hear it and awesome to see it. All right, let's dig in. And I'm sure the NFL was a big part of that, right?

Andrew Pace [00:04:49]:

Massive, yeah. So, I mean, we're coming off of week nine here. We did seven units of profit on NFL week nine and NFL week eight, we did eleven units of profit on the stream. So that is massive. Now, if you had a $6,000 bankroll, those units would be anywhere from about fifty dollars to one hundred dollars that we'd recommend that people would be placing based on that bankroll size. But for someone like myself that has a bankroll behind that, say $6,000, I'm not afraid to be taking much bigger swings percentage wise relative to my bankroll, relative to that $6,000, I wouldn't be afraid to bet that full bankroll, that full $6,000 on one bet at all. Which obviously isn't advisable from a sports betting or gambling standpoint, but I think these guys on the podcast with me here can attest sometimes your active bankroll isn't actually necessarily fully deployed into the sports book. So one of the things that all three of us have to do is we have to have a percentage of our funds available to use but aren't necessarily available in the actual sports book itself.

Andrew Pace [00:06:06]:

So that means that a guy like Kenny might have 20,000 $40,000 in one book where he puts that entire balance on one particular game because that's where he got the best line. And he might have hundreds of thousands or even millions in his other books or ready to move into the books that allow him to make that sort of 20,000 $40,000 swing on one particular bet. So, yeah, I would say that I'm not afraid to take a swing with a percentage, but the downside of that, obviously, is good example was on Saturday of this week since those books had been clipped, and now I'm sitting there restricted. I've got a couple of $2,000 deposits in again, and that exact situation occurs where I go, okay, I got a great line on this book. I'm not afraid to swing the 2000, and you can see me on the live stream right after that bet. Lost. People can see me going like this, getting the book refunded or loading up another book here and where. So, you know, from the standpoint of a new sports bettor, that is certainly the last thing you want to be doing.

Andrew Pace [00:07:10]:

But we have to deal with that stuff all the time, john, Kenny, and I and Shane, maybe, you do know.

Shane Mercer [00:07:16]:

Working my way up to that kind know, I'm sort of halfway there. I would know. Sometimes I have that bit of a problem, and then other times I'm kind know going, I don't do I want to reload this book or do I want to move on? Because a lot of times, too, it's great to just let the book sit right after you've lost some money in it. Maybe just, all right, you know what? Not having a good run with that book, let's put it to the side. I'll let it sit, and I'll revisit it a month from now or two months from now or something like that. Right, but you also mentioned, too, if somebody's starting with a $6,000 bankroll and they're doing $50 bets, well, hey, if you do 20 units in two weeks, that's still $1,000. And I know a lot of sports bettors out there that would be happy to make $1,000 in two weeks betting on sports. So you got to sort of look at it from where you're at, right, in your position.

Andrew Pace [00:08:01]:

Well, I think that's a good point, and John would probably be the best person to speak to about that. That's probably where he started when he joined inplayLIVE. Like, John, you didn't have a big bankroll when you started. I know you did some pregame stuff.

GosuThune [00:08:13]:

But right, yeah, I started with about somewhere between like 20 to 40,000, which is a big variance, but I'd say like about 40,000 was what I was treating it as when I was betting at the beginning. And that went up five times in the first three months that I joined.

Shane Mercer [00:08:32]:

Wow, what a run.

Andrew Pace [00:08:34]:

That's a pretty big starting bankroll compared to our average customer.

Shane Mercer [00:08:37]:

I think we tip, I was going to say, I know a lot of people try to work their way up to that 40 grand mark and I remember being there when I was trying to work my way up to it. It takes a lot of time, effort and hard work, but it's definitely achievable. And what people don't, I think, realize too, is that when you're sort of in that smaller bankroll phase where you have $6,000 or less than $10,000, it takes a longer time to build up. But once you pass a certain threshold, call it $10,000, things can really ramp up quickly, right? Like the curve becomes much steeper and it's that exponential growth.

Andrew Pace [00:09:12]:

Well, the thing is too, Shane, on that point is at the smaller levels, we're working with someone a little bit closer that's in the Vancouver area where we're just kind of following his story a little bit and not in any coaching capacity. So this person hasn't had special access or anything like that, but he started with $150 about a month ago and he's closing in on 1000. Imagine ten xing your bankroll, Kenny.

The Golden Goose [00:09:41]:

That's what I'm saying. It would be nearly impossible, I would say it would be impossible for me to five X my bankroll like John did in three or four months. That would be pretty much a mathematical impossibility just because I would be able to get those large enough wagers down. And that's the challenge. Once you reach Andrew and my level and John's level, it's tough to continue at that same trajectory. So it kind of does start kind of flat. You ramp up and then it kind of flattens out again where it's a slow, steady climb. I mean, nobody would complain about the millions that I make each year, but as a percentage of my total bankroll, I'm not hitting the moon anytime soon as far as trajectory up, but obviously I'm not complaining with my income.

Shane Mercer [00:10:33]:

Yeah, but on that topic of hitting the moon pace, that guy that you guys are following and tracking, I'm sure he feels like, jeez, I ten x did a month. This is amazing.

Andrew Pace [00:10:42]:

Yeah, he's not quite ten x, but yeah, he's five x kind of thing. Yeah, right?

Shane Mercer [00:10:48]:

Yeah, I mean, still, it's phenomenal, right? I mean, it's an incredible pace of growth at that stage that is hard to ignore, I think, and not appreciate, especially if you've been a losing sports. I mean, come on, look at this.

Andrew Pace [00:11:03]:

Text I got from John. I got to read this out. Sorry, John, I'm going to expose you. Woe is me. This is so bad. I'm experiencing challenges of having a bankroll that's too large to get even a drive bet on most things. Is that why you always end up downsizing to a bankroll that lets you get 1% on everything? But it's actually a really good lesson. So we went on from there, and it's a really good lesson because John is so much better as a sports, bettor in so many ways than I am.

Andrew Pace [00:11:36]:

But he still comes to me with a question like that because I have more experience with having maybe a greater size bankroll than he has, historically speaking. So he's looking at it and going, here's my 1% of my bankroll. That's now this significant amount of money where he goes, who will actually take this bed? And he's going around going, I can't get this amount of money in. So why is it that I am, quote unquote, able to? Well, one of the reasons is that run that we just talked about, if I start small and ramp up, I have no problem getting in the money that I want to. But it also puts you in a position where you're trying to keep things consistent. So maybe you have one strategy that you're able to get five figures in on, and maybe you have another strategy where you're only able to get closer to maybe $1,000 in. And this strategy goes ten for ten on the day, and this strategy goes o for one on the day, and you ended up breaking even. So I had a real hard time, literally, this was the time, last NFL season where I was trying to get in 2040 and $50,000 bets, and it went horribly for me, and I know that's normal for Kenny.

Andrew Pace [00:12:49]:

So he's sitting there going, listen as peasant trying to get to my level, right? But it went horribly for me. And I think the reason why it was so challenging for me was because I was having these remarkable days where I had these $2,000 starting deposits, that I was running into the five figures, well into the five figures, and then because of one bet, actually having a losing day. So that's where when John's text came through, he was kind of probably going through something somewhat similar where he was going, look at our record for the day. Look at what I've done in the day. And this one bet that I was able to get in. Finally able to get in the percentage that my bankroll warrants. That loss that inhibited me from having a maybe profitable week even. Not even a profitable day, potentially.

Andrew Pace [00:13:41]:

A losing week because of this one big bet that the amount you were comfortable with but the amount relative to the other wagers that you put in was so significant. So, yeah, it was a great text to get from him, but it is a real learning curve that you have to go through with this stuff. And I find having resources, people like these guys to bounce ideas off of is so important. But then there's also the reality of living the situation. If you don't live it oftentimes, people don't learn it. So people can say whatever they want to you, but you have to come to the solution yourself based on your own experiences and comfort level.

Shane Mercer [00:14:18]:

Right. I'm thinking about to go from betting $5,000 to throwing $50,000 on something and the stress that comes with clicking that button. But, Kenny, you're super experienced in that, and you obviously have developed a comfort with it, right?

The Golden Goose [00:14:34]:

Absolutely. And that came with time, and that came actually with inplayLIVE just kind of getting me out of my comfort zone. I'm like, well, I'm hitting 75% to 80%. So I'm like, why am I still betting? I was just locked in at betting 1000. That was kind of the number. I started off as a $500 bettor. Then I went to like six, seven, eight. Finally got to 1000 after a couple of years.

The Golden Goose [00:14:58]:

But I'm like, why am I still betting 1000? I should be betting way more than that. And then I started betting 20. I went from overnight going from $1,000 bettor to $20,000 bettor, and now I'm a $40 to $50,000 bettor. But it was like, literally overnight, I just got stuck there in that rut. And one of my good friends has kind of been stuck there for a long time. And he's a million dollar winner, and he's done it on just $1,000 wagers because he just refuses to go above $1,000 wager for some OD reason. Like I was basically for a long time.

Andrew Pace [00:15:32]:

Well, it's what Shane just said, right? It's comfort.

GosuThune [00:15:34]:

The psychological thing. Yeah, it's really a psychological thing.

Shane Mercer [00:15:38]:

Right. Do you want to put yourself through a possible heart attack or stroke while you're supposed to be having fun betting on sports? Right.

Andrew Pace [00:15:48]:

There was a moment on the live stream yesterday, and this will give you an indication of Kenny. So he has his mic, and it's the same one as mine. And there's a mute button right here. And it isn't an actual button. It's kind of like what your cell phone would be, where if you press on it, you think that maybe you pressed it, but he didn't press it and he hit mute. And he's like, I only got 20 racks on this one.

Shane Mercer [00:16:13]:

A reverse dress of having too little.

Andrew Pace [00:16:17]:

Everyone just blew up laughing. People are like, I couldn't even dream of having $20,000, and he's complaining that he only got half on it, so that was pretty good. But I think one of the things that differentiates Kenny in regards to that is, number one, he's fearless, which a lot of people, I would say, are fearless. But number two is he actually is comfortable in those spots. I remember a time where Kenny's unit size was about $10,000. This was a couple of years ago, and we were actually betting on college basketball, which is now underway. And I think we're going to be talking about that next week on the show. But can't wait. There you go.

Andrew Pace [00:16:52]:

There you go. So, Kenny, do you remember the bet? Was it NFL or was it college basketball?

The Golden Goose [00:16:57]:

It was NFL. I remember the wager.

Shane Mercer [00:16:59]:

You got to tell us.

The Golden Goose [00:17:00]:

You got to tell us. Yeah, okay. The Kansas City Chiefs were playing the Denver Broncos. And I really like the first half to go under, which is an unusual bet for me. So I really like the first half to go under in that spot. And all the books had 27 and a half was their number at the time. And DraftKings had a different number. They had like 28.0, which was a much different wager at the time because it was like a 14 seven game with only like four minutes to go in the half.

The Golden Goose [00:17:36]:

And the Chiefs were driving anyway. So my son came in and he sat on my lap while I was live streaming telling everybody. I was like, yeah, I'm going to take the under for under 28 at DraftKings for yet. Anyway, he sat on my lap and I didn't even realize, well, I was hitting one -120 I laid the juice. I was trying to put in 12,000 and I accidentally hit an extra zero and put it in for 120,000. I just so happened to have like 150,000 in that account. It got referred to Trader. And then I'm like I'm like, oh, crap, did I put an extra zero? Like, I realized while it was being referred to Trader, see, the thing spinning, spinning, spinning then so then I'm like, all right.

The Golden Goose [00:18:22]:

And then I tried to refresh, back up, cancel out, whatever. Then I checked my bets and I had an open wager for the 120,000 to win 100,000 on that under. So now my eyes got real wide. I'm talking to the stream. I'm like, I just made a major mistake. I just piped an extra zero. I'm freaking out.

Andrew Pace [00:18:42]:

But no, but that's my point, Kenny, is I lived that moment with you. You said you're freaking out. Like, he was as calm as anyone I could ever imagine, placing a wager that big. And that's why I say he's fearless, but he's calm. I remember you saying people were like, oh, I'll take 1000 of it. I'll take 5000. You're like, no.

Shane Mercer [00:19:05]:

You must have loved the best.

The Golden Goose [00:19:08]:

The Chiefs were driving, so now it's like third and five and they're like the 25 yard line. And then there was an incomplete pass. I was like, oh, great. There's going to be a field goal. Then there was only like two minutes to go in the half. I was like, all right, then I can absorb a field goal the other way and still win the bet. They call like a late pass interference flag and give the Chiefs first down at the 15. I am now totally freaked out because I'm thinking if they get into the end zone, the best I do is tie.

The Golden Goose [00:19:38]:

If the Broncos get then the Broncos get in field goal range. I can lose anyway. They ended up getting held to a field goal, and then the Broncos went like three and out. Then I was afraid that Kansas City was going to score again, but then Mahomes got sacked on the first play and ended up being halftime. So I never really was like a big sweat, but it could have gone really horribly wrong. And then I went down for dinner, and I was stunned that I just won $100,000 on a bet that I kind of liked.

Shane Mercer [00:20:07]:

Your wife must have loved that news.

Andrew Pace [00:20:10]:

You know what he said to me that night? He goes, I think I'm going to start betting that much more often.

Shane Mercer [00:20:15]:

Yeah. And I guess you never look back. That's it.

The Golden Goose [00:20:20]:

I haven't made $100,000. Actually, I probably have made $100,000 yet.

Andrew Pace [00:20:28]:

And the stories haven't been as great as those ones, unfortunately. I think I have the Gonzaga three clip if you want to run that.

Shane Mercer [00:20:36]:

Maybe we'll save that for college basketball next week.

GosuThune [00:20:39]:

All right.

Shane Mercer [00:20:40]:

Okay, guys, we got a little bit off track off track here, but this has been a great conversation so far, so I absolutely love it. But let's bring it back into the NFL here. Let's dive into what we're seeing out there with the books and with these teams. And so, Kenny, I'm going to come to you first here because I want to start with the know. Kenny, you're a big fan, and the truth know, regardless of if you're just a fan of the game and you're watching, this team looks like the best in the know. They're performing at the highest level. They keep finding ways to win even against good teams. But what are you seeing from the books when it comes to betting on Eagles games and how has that changed through the season?

The Golden Goose [00:21:20]:

I'm an absolute Eagles fan, but I have a tough time betting on Eagles games. And this is almost a league wide thing. But the Eagles head coach, I don't want my phone to go off, but I'm going to say his name anyway, sirianni. My phone always thinks when I say that that I'm saying, hey, siri, but anyway, Siriani. And I feel like the IQ of all NFL coaches is just really bad this season. Worse than I ever remember it being. I remember watching football in the every coach had clock management, and there were some bad head coaches, especially here in Philly with Rich Cotitan and some really bad coaches in the 90s. Ray Rhodes was not a great clock manager either, but I feel like they had the basic fundamentals of what football time is like, when they should kneel down, when they shouldn't.

The Golden Goose [00:22:21]:

Like, you saw Pittsburgh's coach who's been there for like 20 years since Cower retired. He screwed up. He kneeled down in a situation where he couldn't kneel down. I just feel like the IQ of these coaches with clock management and end of game scenarios is just they're morons. They're absolute morons. Siriani blew the game against the jets with terrible clock management and he went to overtime against the Redskins in a game that they should have been kneeling down at. It's just like, he's an idiot. He's an absolute moron.

The Golden Goose [00:22:54]:

I hate the way he handles end of game scenarios and it's going to end up backfiring on them. They're going to end up losing another game that they shouldn't this season if he keeps handling end of game scenarios the way he has been on this.

Shane Mercer [00:23:09]:

Topic of bad coaches and these sort of not being able to handle the games at the end correctly or manage them correctly? Is there something the books are doing to kind of shift what they're doing in terms of setting the lines and changing the lines live and that kind of thing? Or are the algorithm still sort of stuck in sort of, hey, we expect the coach to make a smart decision?

The Golden Goose [00:23:32]:

Kind of I feel like the books are still keeping it where we're expecting the coaches to make smart decisions. I'm still hitting close to 75% of my wagers in certain scenarios this year that I love to wager on. So I guess I can't complain from that standpoint because I'm still hitting at an alarming rate, but it's become a little more challenging where I maybe don't take as many games. Because I have to say, oh, this coach is a real jackass. I kind of have to avoid betting in this scenario where I would normally pound this wager, but this guy's such an idiot. I don't know how the hell he's going to end up ending this game. I feel like a lot of the coaches have, like, a college football mentality where let's just run up the score and what to score more points instead of just ending the game. It's over.

The Golden Goose [00:24:26]:

You're professionals. You're not getting extra credit for winning by an extra touchdown. I don't know. In some situations, it's just been really silly this year with the NFL in that respect. So I feel like I have less opportunities, but I'm cashing in on the ones that I really do like.

Shane Mercer [00:24:45]:

Yeah, we are seeing a ton of these bad decisions and you mentioned them sort of playing at a college level or coaching at a college level, but these aren't guys that are new to coaching at this level. These are guys who've been around a long time and you expect more from them, I think, right, Pace?

Andrew Pace [00:25:01]:

Yeah, I think John might be the most qualified person to speak on some of the coaching decisions that have been made, but yeah, Hay Siriani there has definitely cost himself one game and potentially more, but I actually think he's a great coach. I really do. I think he's a great coach. I think some of these guys, they're buried in this new era of the NFL. They're buried in this. The analytics say this, but the thing is, the analytics need to go out the window. When it's first down means you can't lose. Touchdown means you now can lose.

Andrew Pace [00:25:39]:

Running the ball means your opponent can only get 20 seconds to potentially tie or win the game with them pinned in their own side of the field. Throwing the ball for an incomplete pass means or an interception for a pick six. Against the jets, throwing the ball means they have a full minute to come back and tie or win the game against you. And as we saw in week nine there, we saw the Texans come back with no time left on the clock where they showed that they don't need a crazy amount of time in the NFL to move the ball down the field. The the ending the game. Especially, like, imagine if Houston was down two scores and they kicked on side right after that play, and they got the ball back with 2 seconds left. With a successful onside kick, they can throw a Hail Mary and then win the game. Whereas if you just had him kneeled out so specifically like Sirianni against the Washington Commandos, they did the fake tush push and Swift then ran in a touchdown and Sirianni went nuts like he was celebrating on the sideline like crazy.

Andrew Pace [00:26:48]:

But if Swift had have gone down, statistically speaking, there is a 0% chance of your opponent winning the game. Whereas they gave the ball back to the Commandos, the Commandos scored and tried an onside kick. If they had have recovered that, philly had a legitimate chance to lose that game as well. And rather than celebrate, he should have actually taken Swift and said you needed to have gone down there. And that's the level that's missing right now from a lot of these coaches in the NFL. And when you ask about the lines catching up to this and that kind of thing, I think where you're actually seeing where the lines are behind is actually in college. College because of the new rules. The lower totals have there's lower totals now because of the new rules.

Andrew Pace [00:27:30]:

And sometimes there's seven or eight minutes left where they think these coaches are going to behave in a way to end the game, and they do not care about ending the game in the slightest. So there are some opportunities there as a result.

Shane Mercer [00:27:44]:

Yeah, I don't want this to sort of be like, hey, Monday morning quarterbacking. And we know so much more than these coaches and they all suck. No, I'm glad that you sort of brought up. These are good coaches. These guys are fantastic coaches. I mean, you look at a guy like Mike Tomlin who was kneeling out when he couldn't. This is a guy who know not trying. To beat on the Steelers, but they're not a great football team this season.

Shane Mercer [00:28:08]:

And he's got them with a winning record of, like, five and three and right in the mix of the division. These guys are excellent coaches. But, yeah, you see some bone headed stuff. I'm thinking about the guy from Cincinnati. I forget his name. His name's Eluding Me, the coach of Cincinnati. And we just saw this yesterday in the late night game when he should have kicked a field goal. It was the most logical thing to do, just kick the field goal.

Shane Mercer [00:28:30]:

And he goes for it on fourth and five and fails. And you're like, Why would you do that? It made absolutely no sense. John, when you see this, how does your head not just explode?

GosuThune [00:28:43]:

It definitely does. In the game last night, I know we were freaking out about just how stupid it was because it was on both sides. So, like, at the end of the half, 24 seconds left, josh Allen gets called for intentional grounding. So then it's fourth down. So Cincinnati should refuse the ten second runoff, force them to punt, get the ball back. Maybe, who knows? Maybe you get a good punt return. Maybe there's, like, a flag. Maybe you throw deep for a potential pi or something to try to get into field goal range score.

GosuThune [00:29:16]:

They enforce the ten second runoff, and then the clock is running, and then the Bills don't take a time out with 1 second left to try a Hail Mary. So both teams end up making poor decisions. And I think really what it is, like, Tomlin's been a coach, Steelers coach. He's been a coach for, like we said, almost a couple decades now. But I've watched more football games at the end of the game. I've watched more end of game football situations just this season than he has in his entire career. Because I'm watching every college football game, every NFL game. I'm watching CFL game.

GosuThune [00:29:52]:

I'm watching so much football. And he only really gets to see the game that he's in every week because they don't have time to watch other people's. Like, it's it's not really that surprising to me that they're missing a lot of the minutiae, but it's like some of these things that, like Kenny said, I just think people used to value those things more in head coaching, and now it's more about the base motivations, or not even the motivations. It's like, how many of these guys are just these wizkid offensive coordinators or defensive coordinators, and now they're just a head coach because they're good at that one thing, but it's all the other things that they just really struggle with. So, like, Brandon Staley is an obvious example of why he's trying to call plays and make clock management decisions, and he's, like, going for it on his own 20 to start the game for no reason on fourth down. It's mind blowing. So it is frustrating and there's definitely value to exploit, but it's tough when you just know that the game could end and it doesn't.

Shane Mercer [00:30:54]:

Right.

Andrew Pace [00:30:54]:

The other thing on that topic, Shane, is that no one questions it. Right. So Tomlin, in the game that we keep referencing, if people don't know what happened, he thought he could kneel out, he couldn't. And then as a result, they kicked a field goal, giving the ball back to their opponent. They were up to scores late, but statistically speaking, they still could have lost the game. We saw the Eagles lose a game because of a scenario like this already. But then a guy like Staley, who goes forward on fourth and one on his own side of the field late in the game, that then gives his opponent the ball back, his defense forced interceptions, so they didn't lose those games two weeks in a row. So then everyone's like, oh, Chargers, whatever, and it doesn't really get brought up.

Andrew Pace [00:31:39]:

Had they have lost those games, then it gets picked apart. But the thing is that these teams are lacking the actual awareness of knowledge in these spots. And like John said, there could be a whole series of reasons for that. But I think that there's an opportunity for some really basic math and statistics guys to just be on the sideline saying, this isn't about the analytics of this particular play. So take the play calling out of it from that standpoint, but just letting them know, hey, three running plays, your opponent's only going to have the ball back with 5 seconds. Three running plays, they'll have no timeouts in a minute and a half. Like, just things like that. Make sure the players know to stay in bounce.

The Golden Goose [00:32:17]:

Yeah, exactly. Like a common sense coordinator, if you will, would be basically what that job would be. And even with some of their challenges that don't make sense, I really feel like that a common sense coordinator would make a lot of sense in a lot of situations to reel the coach back in a little bit of some of the boneheaded mistakes that they make.

Shane Mercer [00:32:42]:

Yeah, no, we talk about that a lot. The common sense coordinator, jeez, we could all start applying for new jobs if we wanted to. Maybe try to get a position with one of our teams that we like. But let's talk about the teams that are doing things really right, even if maybe it looks like they're not. And I'm thinking about the Kansas City Chiefs here. So we talked about the Eagles and I said that they look like the best well, if you're talking about the best teams in the league, the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be under the conversation. And when you watch them play, they look like they're still struggling at times. Right.

Shane Mercer [00:33:14]:

Things aren't always clicking the way you expect. Patrick Mahomes and for so many years now, we've watched Patrick Mahomes play and he makes it all look so easy. I would say this season it's not looking, but, but we have seen him and the Kansas City Chiefs do the right thing, right? Like going down instead of scoring the touchdown and just grinding out the clock. Are there other teams out there that are consistently doing the right thing and can we look to those teams to keep doing the right thing and kind of bank on them when we're betting on them?

Andrew Pace [00:33:48]:

Yeah, I would say yes, absolutely. I think that there is great football IQ out there. Patrick Mahomes is at the top of the list. A lot of people, when that stuff happens bring in conspiracy theories like he could have scored a touchdown but he went down. Or like when McVeigh kicked that field goal down ten and the spread was plus seven and a half. If there was 1 second left on the clock, which it just happened that there was zero, could have still gotten the ball back and potentially tied the game or won it with a two point conversion on Hail Mary. So a lot of the right things to do at the end of game will shock the public because they're cheering for their bets, their overs, their fantasy teams. So if Tod Gurley was the famous one, it was the Packers Rams game.

Andrew Pace [00:34:35]:

And when he went down in bounds, it ended the game, and the internet went in an uproar because everyone thought they were going to cover the spread on that play. And it was a major NFL game, and he was a major fantasy piece at the time. But yeah, a lot of people don't realize that when that stuff happens. The statistical probability of them winning went from in the high ninety s to one hundred.

The Golden Goose [00:35:01]:

Yeah, one of the most famous ones was an eagle that did it first. He had like a walk in touchdown, Brian Westbrook, around like 15 years ago, he slid down at the two on a breakaway run just so the Eagles could just kneel on it and the game be over. But the Eagles didn't cover in the spread so people were pissed off about it in Philly and everything. But that was the first one that I remember of a running back truly just going down, giving up for his team to win, to give them no chance for a comeback.

Shane Mercer [00:35:33]:

And for everybody out there listening, watching, paying attention, our audience out there and you're wondering, well, why are we talking about these sort of these seemingly meaningless plays that a lot of people will forget? Well, they're seared in the memories of these pros because this is how bets are won and lost with these very small decisions.

Andrew Pace [00:35:53]:

Right.

Shane Mercer [00:35:53]:

It's a game of inches and a game of tiny mistakes and those mistakes add know, as we go through a season, it's important to note these things down and kind know, track who's doing what and hoping that you can find some kind of consistency in it. Know, we've talked about the good teams here, john, I want to come to you because you famously love to bet against human. You know, there's a lot of bad teams in the league. I feel like this season has a lot more bad teams than usual. When I was looking at the schedule for this past week, that just past week nine here, I'm like there's maybe four games out of twelve or 13 this week that are like must watch and the rest of them are just bad or they look bad on paper. And the teams aren't necessarily great teams or amazing teams to watch. I'm thinking the Cardinals, the Giants, the Panthers, the Bears. I'm sure there's so many more that I could probably loop into this category of mediocre to, you know, is there anything that you're seeing in terms of these bad teams that's consistently presenting value either pregame or live?

GosuThune [00:37:01]:

Yeah, I think a lot of it is just there's so many backup quarterbacks playing right now and then there's backup quarterbacks that just have no business being in the league. Like Tommy DeVito, named after a character from Know, he's just completely incapable of moving the ball at all. Obviously value is drive betting scenarios, like teams not to cross certain yardage markers on the field or let them get eight yards on first down, bet them to punt at like 3.0 or something like that because just knowing they may not be able to get two more yards, stuff like that. It's gotten really bad. I think a lot of it is when you have a backup, let's use a good backup example like a Colt McCoy or a Tyrod Taylor or something. You know what a ceiling is like, you know, this person is never going to win you a championship. So I think a lot of front offices look at it as like, why even bother having the guy on the team? There's no upside with this person. So maybe I should just try to have a young backup quarterback that's like a rookie or a second year player who's like a little bit of an unknown and maybe they'll grow into something one day.

GosuThune [00:38:20]:

They just look at it as like, I'm free rolling this position, when really, if your goal is to try to just even make the playoffs, I just don't understand why you don't have these veteran players on your team. To be able to just come in and win a few games for you, at least during the middle part of the season or something. So I think just yesterday, I really liked that we talk about looking at the games to end at a certain score or a few points late or something. And we're normally looking at games where we think a team who's actually able to move the ball well will just run out the clock on their way down the field. I focused in on a game like in the Packers Rams game where just nobody could move the ball because you have Jordan Love, who's essentially a backup quarterback or he should be, and then you had, I guess was it like Ripian was playing for the I mean, just nobody can move the ball. It's like, well, I'm just not even going to bet that anyone just actually runs the clock out because I know LaFleur is an idiot when it comes to that kind of stuff, but it's like, I'm just going to bet that nobody can actually score even if they wanted to. So that's kind of where I'm focusing on that now. It's like instead of looking for the team that I think is just going to burn eight minutes going down the field, I'm just going to find the team that couldn't go down the field even if they tried.

The Golden Goose [00:39:38]:

Speaking about LaFleur and kneel down.

Andrew Pace [00:39:40]:

Oh, my God, he didn't kneel.

GosuThune [00:39:42]:

Yeah.

The Golden Goose [00:39:46]:

And then LaFleur could still kneel down because it's only first down and there's under two minutes and he could have kneeled three times and didn't realize it and ran the ball.

GosuThune [00:39:54]:

And that's an example of a times changing, right, where it's like they could have ended the game. They chose not to end the game, but they were just too bad to still score. So you have to kind of factor all this stuff in. I don't want teams that can take shots down the field, like with the Saints do it with like Olabe or the Raiders, do it with Devontae Adams. Like these teams that just don't know how to end the game, just chugging it down. Like, I don't want any of those guys to be involved in an end of game situation for me these days.

Shane Mercer [00:40:23]:

Right. And to be clear, John, you identified that it's not know for everybody out there listening. It's not like, oh, John went and just anticipated that they would be really bad. No, you watched them be bad for quite a while, right, at least, what, two quarters or something right before you decided to make that move.

GosuThune [00:40:40]:

We bet that probably midway through the third quarter or something. I think they only kicked a field goal for the next, like 20 in game minutes and then there was just some garbage at the end with no timeouts being called and all kinds of crap, but still won pace.

Shane Mercer [00:40:55]:

You're always talking about motivations and trying to align with motivations in a game like that, right, where it's just so bad and nobody can even achieve what they're motivated to try to do. How do you try to align yourself with those motivations?

Andrew Pace [00:41:11]:

Well, I think that the thing is you see in those mean what Shane's referencing there is kind of like two teams that aren't where they want to be at this point in the season. You can kind of tell the season's over. You know you're not going to make the playoffs, you know you're not going to win the Super Bowl, you know you're not going to win the division. That's out of the way. It's done. But maybe you do have a different quarterback or a young quarterback in right? And I think towards the end of those games you realize that when you start thinking about logic and can they score, can they not score? How much time's left? Like all these factors that would really come into play perhaps in a game like the Super Bowl, where again another example of where we watched Mahomes, his ability to score and the Kansas City Chiefs went down on the 1 YD line. Neil, Neil, neil kicked a field goal to win the game and probably some people that had an over there, probably some people that had next touchdown score, all those kind of things went up in arms saying that the NFL is rigged and all that kind of stuff. Well these other games you actually realize that they've turned into a bit of a practice.

Andrew Pace [00:42:24]:

That's literally what it is and you're seeing coaches like 27 nothing. Yesterday the Cardinals started Clayton toon and they had just gotten rid of Dobbs as their quarterback. Dobbs obviously went over to Minnesota and had an amazing win. A really crazy story that one too. But anyways, 27 nothing. You see the coach for the Arizona Cardinals using his timeouts to get the ball back. There's only one reason for that and that's throw all the logic and everything out the window. He's trying to get some reps and practice in the most real form.

Andrew Pace [00:43:03]:

You can't go out on the practice field and simulate a game the way you can in an actual football game. They didn't score. So the experiment is continuing to fail. But the same thing happened with LeFleur and the packers and McVeigh with the Rams where you see them using timeouts and things like that and it is literally just for practice and there's no other reason for it. So you do see some of that stuff and I think from a betting standpoint that can be dangerous. But like John said, he was just kind of trusting that regardless of what's happening that he just didn't trust them to actually score in that particular game. And I think that game ended on 23 points and for an NFL game, 23 points I think we can all agree is a low scoring game.

Shane Mercer [00:43:46]:

Yeah, I mean you expect one team to score 23 points in an NFL game, right, let alone a combined score of 23. And when you talk about it being a practice or sort of turning into that mentality, well then it sort of explains some of the boneheaded things like LaFleur not kneeling out because his mind is probably somewhere else. He's looking at the game as a practice. So who knows? He's probably thinking about dinner or something like that at that point of the game, right?

Andrew Pace [00:44:11]:

Totally. And I think we even saw Bill Belichick, who's just a master of giving up in an NFL game. So if his team's losing, he throws in the towel, and you'd see know, Patriots even in the Tom Brady era, where they'd have one of those blowout like, we're on to Cincinnati, the game before that, where the whole fourth quarter, the backups are in, and he doesn't throw the ball a single time. He runs the ball over and over and over again as the losing team to try and go home sooner, to try to keep his team safe and healthy. Now, this season, we had a 35 nothing Saints Patriots game where Bill Belichick started using timeouts down 35 nothing. And it's for the same reason that I just said he's got a terrible football team this year. He's got a terrible quarterback. They've put up zero points in the game.

Andrew Pace [00:44:58]:

Is he going to fly down the field and score? Probably not. But he's trying to get more data. He's trying to get more reps in. He's trying to get more experience for his guys. I hate to say this, but at that point, an injury to this team, it's meaningless. Like if Mac Jones got hurt for the entirety of the think I hate to say this, but I think a lot of Patriots fans would probably actually be happy because then they'd get to see someone else under center. So the motivations of, let's keep our team healthy, let's keep our team rested and not running out there for no reason, all these kind of things, those can go out the window when your team's that bad. And the flip side of this is like a game like the Eagles against the Cowboys.

Andrew Pace [00:45:46]:

The game this past week was a great football game, but we've seen the Cowboys blow out teams, and with three minutes left, they're passing the ball to C. D. Lamb, and he's getting rocked on the sideline where you go, holy smokes. You are a playoff goddamn football team, and you are risking millions of dollars of the best talent in the league, their health and everything in a game where it is impossible for you to lose. So you do really get a broad spectrum of different situations, but also different coaching mentalities where they don't care how much time is left on the clock, they're going to keep their starters out and keep slinging the ball down the field. That could really come at their detriment in a whole series of different ways.

Shane Mercer [00:46:25]:

As a you know, a lot of people out there, too, listening, probably thinking like, hey, well, I wanted CD. Lamb to get that for my fantasy team. Well, these are moments where you've got to take note, put your fantasy team aside if you really want to make some real money and kind of focus.

The Golden Goose [00:46:42]:

I just want to touch on what Andrew just touched on, too. With a lot of those coaching motivations, especially going into the second half of the season. This is more important kind of for the final couple weeks of the season, but a lot of amateur bettors. They think this team's out of it and this team needs this game, this team's out of the playoffs. Playing a team that needs the game to make the playoffs, that's completely meaningless. That team that's out of it is still going to play for, the players are playing for bonuses, the coaches playing to make his resume look better for an extra win this or that. The games that I like in those scenarios are the games that are of the teams that are going to make the playoffs and don't benefit from a win. They're the teams that are going to rest their starters going into the playoffs and things like that.

The Golden Goose [00:47:28]:

So it's really about the motivation of the coaches. So maybe they want to keep seeing the starter and see if he's going to be the starter for next year. So they're going to keep them playing. So it doesn't really matter that that team needs the game for the playoffs. The only scenario that I look at is the teams that are already in the playoffs and they don't benefit from a win. That's when the coaches may decide to sit starters and things like that, but don't fall into the trap of this team's out of it and this team needs the game to make the playoffs. The team that makes the playoffs, they're going to blow them out. That's not true in most cases.

Andrew Pace [00:48:02]:

Dan Campbell last year, it was the last game of the season and he knew he could sink the packers playoffs hopes and he literally said this is our Super Bowl. And a lot of people were like, oh, they might rest these stars and all this. They came out and won the game. They celebrated after like they won the Super Bowl. Like that last game. The amount of upsets there, I remember New England would clinch home field against Miami and home field at that time was always the Peyton Manning Tom Brady combo. I mean there's some Ravens in there, there's some Steelers in there, but it was pretty consistently going to be Brady against Manning in that AFC championship and New England had to go to Denver for the AFC championship and they tried to tie the game on a failed two point conversion. They lost the game 20 to 18.

Andrew Pace [00:48:52]:

Denver won that super bowl against Carolina that season. So you could argue that the week 17 at the time game where New England lost to Miami as -18 pregame favorites to clinch home field ended up being the reason why they didn't win the Super Bowl that year. It is so common for that team that's out to win that game that must be won by the favorite. The packers had to win last year. Lions took care of business and that's a huge thing to be cautious of. And what Kenny said, what the public says, they say it every single week, 17 week, 18, last week of the season. It comes out in spades and I'm.

Shane Mercer [00:49:33]:

Sure we'll be guaranteed to hear it again this season but fantastic advice as we head into this back half of the season. But also with this back half of the season, this is something I want to ask all three of you about because I think you're all coming at it from different positions. But as we head into this back half of the NFL season we start layering in the other. You know, NFL really owns September and much of know but now we've got NHL, we've got NBA, we've got college hoops. Beginning today we're recording on a Monday. So beginning today, college football, we've got all of these sports now layering in on top of the NFL and a lot of it will take place during NFL slates on a Sunday but Thursday a Monday as well. And so I want to just go around the horn here quickly and just get your tips for managing it all pace. What do you tell new members about this particular time of.

Andrew Pace [00:50:35]:

Know you don't FOMO and you just stay the course. And I think from my standpoint it's teamwork, right? So I might be narrowed in on one or two sports or one or two strategies on one or two sports and Kenny might be narrowed in on the same two sports but the strategies he's looking at are different. I think John's betting like honestly, I'm looking at John, I think John's betting right now.

GosuThune [00:50:59]:

Might have bet USC women over 80 and a half points might.

Shane Mercer [00:51:05]:

Have won all in good luck.

Andrew Pace [00:51:07]:

Yeah, literally. And that's the divide and conquer mentality. So there's a lot on at a lot of different times. So teamwork in different areas of expertise that also allows from a membership standpoint, like forget about our individual betting, something going on at all times where if you are really busy you can tune in in only specific windows that work for you and something's going on and something's hopefully a profitable thing to wager on potentially. So yeah, I don't know if that was advice. I would say don't freak out about anything and just focus on what works for you and what you're good at and don't worry about anything else because bankroll growth is important, especially in the beginning that allows you to stop the bad habits. When you see growth of things that work, that allows you to stop doing the things that don't.

Shane Mercer [00:51:59]:

That is very true. I can speak to that from experience. It was a big part of me shedding a lot of my bad habits. John, as you live wager here on the podcast with all of those sports going on though, it's a lot to track and I know you're a big data guy. How do you keep up with all of that? How do you keep track of everything?

GosuThune [00:52:18]:

Yeah, I mean, I think the most important thing right now when you have seasons that overlap, is I should feel most confident about football right now because I've been seeing it for two months. So as these other leagues start up, I need to slowly ramp up into those. And I think it's okay to just watch games. And then if I want to collect data or do something with data in those leagues, I can just let a couple of weeks go by and then I can go back and retroactively pull everything in because it's such a small sample size to start a season anyway. So I'd rather just if football is on, I'm focused on football and I'll have the other sports on, and I'll probably try to watch them. And then when there's football, luckily with football, we get off nights, which we don't get with the other sports. Right. So then on those off nights, I can just kind of watch those games and maybe make some bets here or there.

GosuThune [00:53:06]:

But I'm really starting a lot smaller with a 1% bet for me on football is going to be probably four or five times at least. What a 1% bet for me is going to be on is on the NBA right now or will be on college basketball when that starts, until I get a feel for just how everything's going, especially NHL. Same way whenever there's coaching changes. We've spent most of this podcast talking about coaches and decisions they make and how we bet around that. So when you have these other sports where you have coaching changes, it's good to understand the to remember our good friend Bob Huggins at West Virginia. We used to treat him differently in men's college basketball than other coaches because of the way he would treat the end of the game and he's not there anymore. So now it's like rewiring my brain to not ignore West Virginia games at the end of a game and stuff. That stuff is like, that's what I'm focused on in the other sports, rather than trying to really just make bank right now in those because I'll have another five months or six months even in those leagues from now until the end.

Andrew Pace [00:54:11]:

Yeah, I think Kenny and I can both tell every amateur bettor that even at our level, some of the biggest mistakes we've ever made is going heavy early in a season. And I think you can sometimes get a real sense of confidence just from one good night. That's it. That's all it can take. Sometimes you're like, oh, we're back.

Andrew Pace [00:54:29]:

It's working, let's go. And then you get cracked in the teeth for being a little too aggressive.

Shane Mercer [00:54:36]:

Yeah, this business is really known for that. As soon as you get even a little bit too confident, it has a way. Of really smacking you back down, doesn't it? Kenny, you're a family guy as well and sports is your bread and butter. How do you manage it all at this time of year?

The Golden Goose [00:54:52]:

I mean, it's really challenging, but my family is very supportive of what I do and everything and I really take a lot of time off from April through the summer when my kids are off. My wife's a school teacher, so she is off during that time, too. So I really try to almost compartmentalize with I spend a ton of family time in those five months that I'm off and just know that during the seven months that I'm working, I'm working for basically those five months off. Basically. I'll still go to my son's sporting events and things like that, but it's really challenging this time of year, obviously.

Shane Mercer [00:55:32]:

You know what? When you say it that way, I think there's a lot of people out there that would love to work seven months of the year, take five months off. I think that would be a dream work life relationship for a lot of people out there. So no, that's great, guys. I think that's going to have to about do it for this week. I look forward to chatting again, perhaps towards playoffs as we approach playoffs and bringing you guys back for that. What do you think?

The Golden Goose [00:55:56]:

Sounds good?

Shane Mercer [00:55:58]:

Awesome.

GosuThune [00:55:58]:

Yeah, sounds great.

Shane Mercer [00:55:59]:

All right, guys, till next time then. Keep eating those books. Thanks for tuning into another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or want to be featured on our podcast, drop a note in the comments below, below. And if you want to join inplayLIVE, use promo code 'BEHINDTHELINES'.