Episode 55

Shane Mercer [00:00:00]:

Matt, how do you sort of avoid that, that that trap of not betting with your bracket, especially when you have such love for a team as well?

Matt Geurten [00:00:09]:

Well, that's coming from someone who's got a future in North Carolina to win the national championship. But, no. I try to just play it game by game. And the thing is too, what I find a lot of times too is people that win these bracket challenges are not the experts, aren't the pros, aren't the people that put hours in. It's just a random person that just kind of fills out as fun, picks random teams that they know nothing about and get lucky and make it all the way to final.

Shane Mercer [00:00:44]:

Hello, and welcome to another episode of Behind the Lines, the only sports betting podcast purifying the sports betting industry. And how do we do that exactly? Well, by teaching you the tricks of the trade, how the sportsbooks try to trap you, and ways for you to win money in real with using real responsible gambling tools. Alright. This week, a really awesome episode, something that we're all very excited for. It is that time of year. This is March. It's March Madness, and we are super excited to dive into the brackets, get a look at them, and see if there's some spots where maybe we can extract a little bit of value. I'm your host, Shane Mercer.

Shane Mercer [00:01:27]:

We've got Andrew Pace, founder of inplayLIVE, and we've got Matt Guerten, a resident pro with inplayLIVE and what I would probably call our resident n c, double a, college basketball expert. This guy has a brain with depths of knowledge when it comes to college basketball. Matt, thanks so much for joining us for this episode.

Matt Geurten [00:01:51]:

Yeah. Thanks for having me.

Shane Mercer [00:01:52]:

Alright. Let's first just get a a a first take here. So selection Sunday just happened. We're recording on Monday. This will come out on Wednesday. The tournament begins in earnest on Thursday. Matt, give us your sort of overall take, just a kind of first glance, first blush, take on this bracket and and how things are sort of setting up?

Matt Geurten [00:02:16]:

Well, one thing I would say for sure is this, this year is definitely the hardest year for the committee to get their bracket set, mostly because we had 5 bids stolen. And for those who don't follow college basketball, what that means is there was 5 teams ended up winning their conference tournament that the community didn't expect them to win. So you had teams like North Carolina State upsetting North Carolina. You had a bunch of the big name teams getting bounced in the 1st round. So you have teams that you think we got in, like the Saint John's of the world, the Seton Hall's, Indiana State, all end up losing a spot because these tiny schools who weren't ever expected to do much ended up pulling off the upsets and winning the tournament. So that made it really, really tough for the committee to kinda fit in who should be in this year, who shouldn't be, because a lot of these 10 to 12 seeds all got taken up by these tournament champions that no one expected to ever come out and win.

Shane Mercer [00:03:09]:

Wow. Well, you know, that's, that that makes things a little bit more exciting, I think. Right? Like, the the Cinderella stories, you know, abound in this year's bracket then. Right? We've got these smaller schools that have made it in, teams that nobody was expecting anything of. But I I we've got I wanna go back and just look at the season, everything that kind of led up to this moment a little bit more, because, when it comes to actual you know, us actually betting on these games and betting on these sports, we saw some major adjustments by the books this season. You know, Matt, you you were sort of right in the thick of it. What what exactly did you see in terms of books? How they how they kind of shifted from perhaps what we did last year?

Matt Geurten [00:03:48]:

Well, we almost saw almost an overcorrection by the books. For, for example, last year, we would be getting around 15, 16 points for a game total whether or not being over and under around the 3 minute mark, around 17, 18, 3 and a half, and then, like, the 19 range for the 4 minute mark. What I found this year is the books really inflated those numbers. Where we'd be getting some games where you'd have 2 2 higher scoring teams, like, let's take a Kentucky and an Alabama playing against each other. The books would expect these 2 teams to score 22 points in the final 3 minutes of a game. And that's, in my opinion, that's just way too much. You have games where, yes, they're high scoring. Yes.

Matt Geurten [00:04:30]:

You expect these 2 teams to score. But what happens is once they get down the final 2, 3 minutes of the game, if it's only a 1 or 2 point game, these teams are taking the 20, 32nd possessions. They're kinda slowing it down, trying to get the best setup they can to make that one score. So we've seen games where the books think they're gonna score 22 points, they score 6 or 7. It stays a one point game all the way down, and the team hits a buzzer beater or a last second shot. The other thing I'd say too is we didn't really see the fouling we've seen in previous seasons. A lot of times you'll see teams down 6, 7 with a minute 30, start fouling teams in the 1 on 1 to try to get back into the game. Whereas this year, we've seen teams they were down 5 with 20 seconds left, just dribbled out.

Matt Geurten [00:05:16]:

Even teams fighting for their lives, down 78 with a minute left, play defense, let the team shoot and dribble out. But the strange thing was you'd see teams like we'll take the ACC championship, for example. A team like North Carolina already in the tournament, they're fouling down 10, 12 of a minute. There's 30 seconds they're fouling. They tried all the way to the end to get back in, and then you see other teams fighting for their lives and just not caring. It's, honestly, the first time I've seen it in college basketball probably in the past 15 years. At the end of the game, just teams not really fouling like they used to.

Shane Mercer [00:05:51]:

Yeah. I'm glad you brought up brought up your team there, and we'll we'll get to them in a moment. They're sitting in a number one seed. I'm sure you're quite happy about all about that. But but, Pace, how did did you and the team at inplayLIVE kind of adjust, to these changes from the books? And then how do you take that and kind of apply it at this time now when we're into the tournament?

Andrew Pace [00:06:13]:

Well, I'm I'm probably the least qualified person to be speaking on March Madness and college basketball.

Shane Mercer [00:06:18]:

That’s why we brought Matt in.

Andrew Pace [00:06:21]:

Yeah. Right. But if I actually rewind the tape and I think back to some of the the history of inplayLIVE, and we used to have a podcast here, where the the host of the show basically said, like, pace, I love this stuff. I couldn't tell you a single player's name, Couldn't tell you anything about a single team, and it's my most profitable sport. And I think one of the things about sports betting, and we definitely covered this last week with, Rob being on, is that you have to adapt to succeed. And sometimes there's an adaptation period that can be a little bit costly to a professional bettor, as these, transitions occur. So Matt kinda touched on 2 things, and that was number 1, an adaptation from sportsbooks, and number 2, potentially a change in the game. And a lot of talking heads are big on this right now, and they're they're factoring in things like how much is the nil impacting, college sports, the behavior on the floor, the way teams are participating and competing.

Andrew Pace [00:07:18]:

And then a lot of the NBA talking heads are talking a lot about how different college basketball was from the standpoint of everyone being so focused on winning when they played. And we're going back now to, of course, like, the UNC sort of the Jordan type era where the individual stats, they'll look back on today and be like, what? I did that? That's how I performed when I was on the floor in college, in in the tournament. Whereas now, it's such a focus of the individual players, their stat lines, and how they're playing, and and potentially less of a focus of of the the team as a whole, and especially that that comes into the spotlight more with social media, your own influence, your own brand, your draft position potentially, your nil deals, all that kind of stuff. So in the grand scheme of things, I would say when you say, like, oh, how did the team adapt and things like that? I I I know how we adapted last season, and most of it was actually in the tournament itself, which I'm looking forward to, this year. But, again, we don't really know if what we were doing last year is going to fit the bill this year. We don't know if that's how games are gonna come in for us. So, realistically, throughout the week, what I did is is started, slowing volume down a little bit to focus on on key spots where I was a lot more confident in in what was going to be coming down the stretch. And the other thing too for me personally, like, you say how did the team at imply live, transition? Well, one of the things that I I started doing more throughout the the latter part of the week was just listening a bit more and following some of the other calls of of guys like Matt or Kenny that that were doing really well, and just just focusing on those spots more so than, maybe me pushing the same volume that I had intended at the start of the week.

Andrew Pace [00:09:03]:

So, lots of changes that that have to kinda continually, you know, be pushed forward by all of us in order to succeed. And and sometimes those can be, you know, these real time, where you're looking at data and historic stuff. And then other times, it's like, guys, this just this isn't the spot for that. We have to either leave it or try something else here based on what we're seeing. Right?

Shane Mercer [00:09:26]:

Yeah. I'm glad you brought up, you know, adapting because that has been key to this college basketball season in a in a major way. And, for anybody out there, listening or watching, if you didn't watch last week's episode with with, Rob Pizzola, of the Circles Off podcast, I encourage you to go back and listen to that one. And there's another episode from a few weeks back that I wanna encourage you all to go back and have a listen to, especially at this time as we approach March Madness. And that was with Ryan Hammer. And he's this guy who kind of created what's become known as the trapezoid of excellence, which is a pretty kind of interesting way of looking at teams and how they perform. And, if anybody is unfamiliar with it, I'll I'll share that with you now so you can get a quick, a quick look at it here. But, basically, the idea is is that this is about kind of comparing pace and and efficiency, and and sort of how well you perform.

Shane Mercer [00:10:16]:

And, you know, he's got it sort of on on a chart here. And on the far right side is a is a very, very fast paced team. If you're in sort of the lower right quadrant, then you're not exactly a high performing team. You play really fast, but you don't do so well. And if you're in the top right, then you play really fast and you do pretty well. If you're up over here in the top left, it means you're a slower playing team, but you do really well. And if you're down here in the left, you're you're a slower playing team that that doesn't perform, exceptionally well. And so, you know, we had Ryan on.

Shane Mercer [00:10:52]:

He kind of explained how it all works and how he creates it and everything. But basically the idea is, is that championship teams, generally speaking, are going to reside somewhere up here in this trapezoid of excellence as he kind of called it. So, Matt, I wanna get, your take on the trapezoid of excellence whether or not you think there's value in kind of looking at it, but also I also just wanna point out that your team is just outside of it.

Matt Geurten [00:11:22]:

Well, I'd say there certainly is. So you see a lot of times where, like, you know, this year, like, the good teams, like, the Kentuckies of the world, the Yukons, the Carolinas, all the blue bloods typically will fall in this trapezoid just based on their style of play. But where you see teams kinda struggles with, take Alabama, for example, last year, really fast paced, high scoring team, coming up against a team that really loved to slow it down and just kinda grind out games, and it just really affected the way they play. You'll see even, like, teams they barely squeaked in. In my opinion, Virginia shouldn't be in tournament this year, but they're a team that really loves to slow the pace of the game. So when you get a team who's used to scoring 80, 90 points and running up and down, having to play a team like a Virginia who wanna score that 50, 60 points, it really affects the flow of the game. And if they've never played like that the entire season, it can really trouble that team. And that's where you have issues, and that's kinda where you see the upsets, where you get some of these mid major teams, like like a Sanford, for example, who I actually think have a really good chance of pulling off a 1st round upset against a kind of an injured Kansas team.

Matt Geurten [00:12:34]:

They're a fast, kinda high scoring paced team, and just some teams aren't used to that. Right? And they just, it kinda gets them out of their style of play, and that's kinda what hurts these big brand teams when you're playing some of these mid majors they've never seen all year.

Shane Mercer [00:12:50]:

Yeah. Pace, when you're building your bracket, are you gonna be looking at the trapezoid of excellence? No. No. What do you like to base it off of, or is it just kind of, you know, you you you take stabs at it?

Andrew Pace [00:13:02]:

Well, I I think since you brought up the bracket, I think it's important to just bring up this time of year as a sports bettor. So if you bet on sports, chances are you're a recreational bettor. And everything that you're gonna be hit with in these next couple weeks are gonna be ads about bonuses. I'm sure you guys have both gotten a bunch of bonus messages in the last, 24 to 48 hours from different sites, obviously, encouraging you to, come in and play. And it's kind of like the Super Bowl where there's this sort of culture out there where now is the time you are expected to bet. It's the cool thing to do because March Madness is on. And people that know nothing about sports would be like, oh, right. March Madness.

Andrew Pace [00:13:45]:

Yeah. Yeah. My office is doing a bracket, or I filled 1 out. And then all of a sudden, if you have any level of success in that bracket, all the you following the games a little bit more closely. So you bring in fans through this, you know, potentially like an office style bracket or something like that, that now are paying attention to the game. And there's a chance that they may even end up placing a bet as well as the the cultures kind of overlap to a certain extent. So as a sports bettor, you need to be extremely aware of the this sort of arena that is being pushed upon you this time of year. And one of the biggest mistakes people make is they follow their bracket into their bets.

Andrew Pace [00:14:28]:

And from the standpoint of your your typical bracket, there's no incentive to pick underdogs. There are brackets that will bonus you based on the seed that you took or, based on the the, the the seed differential and a whole series of of of different ways of incentivizing the underdog. But for the most part, the these brackets don't incentivize that. So statistically speaking, you would be foolish to not pick the one seeds to go all the way because they're the most likely. But from a betting standpoint, those can be the heaviest favorites, the most parlayed teams, the ones with the least value on them for actual, live wagering, but also pregame wagering because the spreads that they need to cover aren't necessarily in line with the team's motivation. The last thing that, University of North Carolina is gonna be thinking is, oh, we need to cover this this 26th point, today to get above the spread. They're literally focused on winning and winning only. So could they win by 26 or more? Absolutely.

Andrew Pace [00:15:39]:

But will they is a whole other discussion. Now from my standpoint with brackets, my sort of approach to it is as elementary or simple as you could possibly get, and that is that no one gets these right ever. So let's just close our eyes and click and be wrong with everyone else. That's literally my approach. And and for me, it's one thing. It's fun and fun only. Last year, I did an all SEC bracket. So I chose my team based on whether or not they were in the Southeastern Conference, and I think I finished in 3rd to last of maybe 300 people.

Andrew Pace [00:16:15]:

So, you know, that that's the kind of stuff that I do.

Shane Mercer [00:16:18]:

I've got the, inplayLIVE bracket up here, right now, and I saw that made my pick. So I've gotta I've gotta do that, and I'll I'll get to it, sometime this week before Thursday's lock. But if anybody's interested in joining, it's it's

Andrew Pace [00:16:34]:

available for everybody. Right, Pase? Yeah. So if you wanna join our bracket pool, all you need to do is shoot us a DM, and and we'll send you the details. So, the best spot to message us is gonna be on Instagram @ inplayLIVE. If you wanna join our bracket pool, it's a winner take all pool. A lot of fun.

Shane Mercer [00:16:47]:

Alright. Matt, I get the sense that you do take a little bit more of a strategic approach to the brackets than FACE does. Would I be right in making that assumption?

Matt Geurten [00:16:59]:

Yeah. So I kinda cheat. I usually fill up 2 brackets. I always have one bracket every year with, obviously, North Carolina winning it all, and I try to fill out a a non biased bracket as well. That's just kinda my thing. It's always the 2 words. One where one where it's all all analytical based. Oh, I'm looking at the Ken Pong rankings.

Matt Geurten [00:17:18]:

I'm looking at the trapezoid of exclients. I'm just trying to figure out how one team matches up against the other, and that's bracket a, I'll call that my real bracket, and then I'll call my other one, obviously, the Carolina bracket where it doesn't matter who they play, it doesn't matter what they're ranked. I'll just put Carolina to win a national championship. But if you're going kinda more of the database side, we can kinda look at the 10 Palm rankings, and they give a very good kind of breakdown of who we think will and will and won't make it far in the tournament. So since the Kenpoam rankings have come out, this year, it narrows it down to 7 teams that really have a legitimate chance of making the NCAA tournament. In order to be in one of those teams that can win it all, you need to be in the top twenty of offensive efficiency. You need to be in the top 40 of the defensive efficiency. So if you're looking kind of for a team who can win it all this year, you're narrowed that brings it down to 7 teams.

Matt Geurten [00:18:16]:

You have the Yukon Huskies, Houston, Purdue, Auburn, Arizona, Duke, and Creighton. Those are all the teams that fit those specific examples, and you have a couple teams that just missed out like the Carolina, the Marquettes who meet the one criteria, but just fall short on the other criteria.

Shane Mercer [00:18:38]:

A couple of absences from there. I noticed that you didn't mention Tennessee. Is Tennessee in that grouping?

Matt Geurten [00:18:44]:

Tennessee would fall in the North Carolina grouping where they meet one of the offensive or defense efficiency criterias, but just fall short on the other one.

Shane Mercer [00:18:53]:

That's interesting too that North Carolina is not in there given the fact that they are a one seat.

Matt Geurten [00:18:57]:

Right? Yeah. So North Carolina, for example, they rank 6th in adjusted efficiency on defense. However, their offensive efficiency ranks 24th, which just puts them on the outside of those, Kent Palm rankings.

Shane Mercer [00:19:09]:

Right. Well, that that does help though when you sort of look at that, and then maybe you combine that with the trapezoid of March Madness brackets, they haven't been watching, college basketball since the beginning of November kind of the way we have. And, you know, they're probably just kind of joining, the party now. But let's have a look up here in in the east side. This is the, Yukon as the one seed, up here in the east. You know, Matt, what do you kind of see happening here? Do you think it's an easy path for Yukon to get to the final?

Matt Geurten [00:19:50]:

I actually think the, committee did Yukon a little bit dirty there because they put like, when you look at the teams that made it in, right, they put Iowa State who, in my opinion, was the 2nd best 2 seed. They just blew Houston in the, in their conference championship game. You have Auburn, who also just won the SEC championship. And in my opinion, Auburn probably poses the biggest threat to Yukon. In my personal bracket, I do have Yukon making the final 4, and I really think it comes down to Yukon Auburn game in the potential meetup of the sweet 16. I think the winner of Yukon Auburn will make that final 4. I just have Yukon slightly edging them out in that, in that game there.

Shane Mercer [00:20:31]:

Yeah. I'm glad you mentioned Iowa State, though, because I think they are firmly smack dab in the middle of that, trapezoid of excellence. And so, you know, they they are definitely a team to watch out for in in that bracket, I think. Okay. Let's go over to the other side, the south. And we've got Houston as as the one seed here. Do you think that they can kind of own this bracket? Is there anyone else in this bracket kind of posing a major threat to them?

Matt Geurten [00:20:55]:

I actually have a 3 seat coming out of this side of the bracket, and I do think Kentucky will be the team that comes out. Houston's good, but we've seen them I've seen them watch some of it this year, even teams of Houston from previous years. Once they get in the tournament, they just don't seem to kinda get it done. Kentucky's been there and done that. I know too they also they're kinda in the UNC bracket where they fall out on the defense side, but Kentucky can score with any team in the nation. And if they get hot, I do think they can kinda clamp down on defense when it really matters. So I actually have Kentucky coming out on, in that region there.

Shane Mercer [00:21:36]:

Okay. Well, look at that. That's a 3 seed. So, you kinda see them sort of advancing all the way to the final 4?

Matt Geurten [00:21:42]:

Yeah. And there's a couple like, I'm looking at this site too. Like, the James Madison, Wisconsin game, I do think James Madison's a really good team. I could see them upsetting Wisconsin in that side of the bracket. Same with that Boise State Colorado. I think whoever went to that playing game will also maybe pull up an upset against Florida. But, yeah, I think, and I'm kind of not following the Ken Palm rankings even though I said that, but I think Kentucky is gonna come out of that, that region there.

Shane Mercer [00:22:10]:

Well, hey. You gotta you gotta go by what you've seen yourself, right, and and think a little bit independently here too be beyond that, which, which I know you know, we're all great at at Imply Live. We tend to sort of be a little bit more contrarian to to the consensus out there. But let's let's move down to the to the Midwest where we've got, Purdue number 1. And would you say that Purdue is, like, the number one of the number ones?

Matt Geurten [00:22:31]:

No. So I'd still my best team in the country would still be Yukon.

Shane Mercer [00:22:35]:

Okay.

Matt Geurten [00:22:36]:

I think what was surprising too this year when you look at 3 of the 4 number one seeds, all lost in their conference tournament. The only team that won was Yukon. I do think it's kind of redemption arc for Purdue this year. Last year, they got knocked down the 1st round as a one seed. They lost to a 16 a couple years ago.

Shane Mercer [00:22:54]:

Historic loss.

Matt Geurten [00:22:57]:

Yea so they got bounced. Same thing the previous year. I believe they they won a couple games, but I think they also lost to a 15 seed later in the tournament 2 years ago. So I think that experience you have the national player of the year in Zach Eady playing for Purdue as well. I think they do have a bit of redemption arc. There are very good teams in this bracket as well. Like, Tennessee, I really like. Crane's another team that fixed the, fits the, mold for a team that can come out, but I think Purdue kinda bounces back this year and makes it the 1st final 4 in a long time for them.

Shane Mercer [00:23:32]:

Yeah. You've got some really strong teams on on that side. I'm glad you mentioned that. You know, Gonzaga on that side, Kansas on that side as well. And, you know, I guess the question for Purdue, which was we watched this kind of unfold, last season, which was, you know, Can they break the press? And that's kind of the question. Right? That that was their downfall last year. This year, though, I think we've seen that they care.

Matt Geurten [00:23:57]:

Yeah. This is the one side too where I actually can see kinda more of the upstets coming too. Like I said, my 1st round upset, I actually do have Sanford beating Kansas in the 1st round. Kansas was a, they're one of the early preseason favorites to win it all, but they've just been hit hard with injuries. They got bounced early in the big twelve tournament. I think Sanford's gonna pull off the upset. And that one another one I'm kinda looking at is Mick Nee over, Gonzaga. This is not your Gonzaga of the past who just dominate teams in their conference and are 30 plus win teams.

Matt Geurten [00:24:34]:

I actually have both Gonzaga and Kansas getting knocked in the 1st round.

Shane Mercer [00:24:39]:

Alright. Wow. Look at that. A couple of upsets on there for for people's radars, and the upsets are what make March Madness so much fun. But let's head over to this other bracket over here on the west side. This is your school. This is this is the one you're watching.

Andrew Pace [00:24:54]:

He's not allowed to comment on this side.

Shane Mercer [00:24:56]:

Right. Yeah. We shouldn't even ask him, I guess. Right?

Andrew Pace [00:24:59]:

Alright, Matt. Who do you got?

Matt Geurten [00:25:01]:

So I have we're gonna call it the, it's the Caleb Love game. We're gonna see that matchup, I think, in the, the elite 8, North Carolina against Arizona. Well known Caleb Love, played at Carolina for the start of his career, helped lead Carolina the national championship game a couple years against Kansas just came up just tiny bit short in that game, which was still kinda still kinda hurts after having such a big lead at the half there. But I do think Carolina, Arizona is gonna set up nicely for them. I do have Carolina sneaking on that side. It's the tight game. I think Carolina is the best team still in this in this region, so I do have North Carolina as well making my final 4.

Shane Mercer [00:25:40]:

And that's on that's on your unbiased bracket. Is that what you're talking about?

Matt Geurten [00:25:44]:

That is on my unbiased bracket. Correct. I shoot. Shocker.

Shane Mercer [00:25:47]:

Wow. he still has his team. Well, there we go. That's good, though. I'm glad we got we got your insights into into sort of how you're approaching the bracket as a whole. But pay some kind of turn it over, you know, because what we see at this time of year is a lot of people just generally out there, mass public entering brackets, having some fun, getting in on the action, which is which is awesome to see, and and it's a lot of fun. But we also see the sportsbooks ramp up the advertising, ramp up the targeting, and sort of encouraging people to bet. That goes beyond the brackets. And I think, you know, you kind of touched on this a little bit in terms of not betting with your bracket.

Shane Mercer [00:26:29]:

But what would you say to sort of a a lot of, the average recreational bettors out there who, you know, were already planning to bet on this, but now that it's, like, their wives are betting on it, and their their parents are betting on it, or their brothers and sisters, and that kind of thing.

Andrew Pace [00:26:42]:

Let let's let's turn that on its head a little bit here. There's huge opportunity here, guys. So we're trying to be like, don't bet. Don't fall for the traps. There's huge opportunity. And anyone that plays a Cloudbet knows they got to if they're if if you've bet with them, you got a $2,000 bonus overnight. Check the rollover requirements, Check and see what is required for that bonus to be eligible to be withdrawn from your account. Bonus harvesting can get flagged by sites, but that doesn't mean that you still can't do it successfully.

Andrew Pace [00:27:21]:

So take the opportunity if you're doing this not to be the recreational player that fell for a trap that they set for you. Flip turn turn, you know, as as Harvey Spector says, turn the if your your your back's against the wall with a gun to your head, what, you know, what what's your next and he says, turn the gun around and and and point it back at the the person who's pointing it at you. So, take that approach to this tournament. Take that approach to times of year where books are trying to exploit you. And if you're not that person like you just alluded to, you know, maybe, like you said, your spouse is is all of a sudden saying, oh, I'm filling out a bracket. It's so exciting. That's great. That's not a negative thing.

Andrew Pace [00:28:05]:

That's fun. Keep it fun, and don't get bracket bias with any in game betting or pregame betting, that you're doing. If anything if there's any rationale you should possibly have, it's that your if your bracket does well, you have a chance of winning that. So you don't need your bets to follow that same pattern as well.

Shane Mercer [00:28:27]:

Yeah. Matt, how do you sort of avoid that, that that trap of not betting with your bracket, especially when you have such love for a team as well?

Matt Geurten [00:28:38]:

Well, that's coming from someone who's got a future in North Carolina to win the national championship, but, no. I try to just play it game by game. And the thing is too, what I find a lot of times too, people that win these bracket challenges are not the experts, aren't the pros, aren't the people that put hours in. It's just a random person that just kinda fills out as as fun, picks random teams that they know nothing about and get lucky and make it all the way to the final. But, when it comes to betting, I try my best to keep any type of pregame biases out of it, look at how the game's going, look at how the 2 teams match up, and just take it game by game. These bracket contests you're entering, you're maybe paying $50, a $100, kinda just fun to get in for the chance of winning, like, a big lottery prize. Whereas when I'm betting these games individually and I'm putting big real money on these things, you have to you you can't think about your bracket. Right? You have to think about what's what gives me the best chance of winning that bet on that particular day.

Shane Mercer [00:29:40]:

Yeah. The great great advice there. And, you know, for for us that have kind of followed college basketball through the whole season, I think now we kind of look at that like this is actually the moment. Well, it's our moment to kind of be like, All right. You know, the season's kind of over and and the volume is just way, way down. And, you know, it it's kind of like this this sort of opportunity to take a bit of a breath where I think a lot of the public out there and and recreational bettors are thinking, oh, now is my time to get in and bet on this. And, you know, they haven't been watching the whole season, and they don't know the things that we know. And so, yeah.

Matt Geurten [00:30:16]:

When you look at it now, right, there's really hardly any games left. Do you have

Shane Mercer [00:30:19]:

Exactly.

Matt Geurten [00:30:20]:

16 games on Thursday Friday on not including the plans. You're gonna have 8 games, Saturday, Sunday. Following week, 4 games, Thursday, Friday. 2 games, Saturday, Sunday, and then the finals the week after. So there's only, like, 1, 2% of the season left. Like, the season's done. Now it just kinda cultivates the final the final at the end of every single year. There's the betting for the college basketball season now is really over, and it's just these tiny little tournaments.

Matt Geurten [00:30:49]:

Yeah. They have some other things like the CBI, the NIT. For a lot of those times, you'll see in kind of those smaller tournaments, the mid major teams care. The teams that never make any of these brackets will fight as hard as they can because they wanna win the NIT. They wanna win the CBI. You'll see teams, like, for example, Carolina last year who missed out on the tournament just said we don't wanna go. Like, they declined the invite, and you'll see that times with a lot of the big teams. They're just not motivated to be there.

Matt Geurten [00:31:17]:

So you can find edges in those other tiny tournaments where you have teams, like, let's say, I don't I haven't seen the bracket yet for the NIT, but say you take a team like a Saint Hall or a Saint John's who just missed out, they have no motivation to play in these things. Their goal is to make the NCAA tournament go on a run. Once they missed that, they just have no interest in these smaller ones where you have the little tiny teams. You're like, you know what? We have a chance to win a tournament, hang a banner in our stadium, and those are where you can find value in those on those other schools as well.

Shane Mercer [00:31:48]:

Yeah. Pace, that kind of, reminds me of the meaningless bowl games in college football.

Andrew Pace [00:31:56]:

Yeah. It's the exact same analogy. Right? So Saint John's is like I mean, they they almost beat Yukon, coming down the stretch there. It was a really tight game, really high scoring game in the conference tournament, and, they were definitely a team that were expected to to get in. And they they've gotta be just crushed right now. And, that isn't the kind of thing where it's like it's not the kind of thing where now you're super motivated where you go, okay. Let's show them. It's more like as our season's over.

Andrew Pace [00:32:24]:

So, they could they could win whatever they play in next.

Andrew Pace [00:32:30]:

I would just caution any bettors where you see that school coming through as a big favorite and going, oh, they can't lose to this team. That there's a good chance they don't care. Yeah.

Matt Geurten [00:32:39]:

Yeah. And, like, that's the thing is I haven't seen the bracket come out, but like I said, North Carolina last year, after not making the NCAA tournament, they used to decline the plane altogether. Like, they had a meeting with team and players and, like, you know what? We really wanna do this. They decided as a group they didn't, and they just kinda stopped the tournament. You'll see that with a lot of these teams that just they don't wanna be there, and that's where you can find real value on these, the mid majors who've never made it anywhere before, and you can see them pulling real big upsets.

Shane Mercer [00:33:06]:

Yeah. Yeah. And especially when we talk about nail deals and we talk about individual players and and perhaps, you know, they just don't want to play or take a risk, you know, in terms of being hurt for something that they view as meaningless. And so, yeah, that's definitely a a caution in that sense. Okay. I would be remiss to not bring up the other big tournament that'll be taking place, which is the women's college basketball tournament. For anybody who's been listening to the show or just knows me in general now, you know that I'm a huge, huge fan of women's college basketball. Right into it completely, I've been following.

Shane Mercer [00:33:39]:

I I've been following the season throughout. And, I I would say, you know and, Matt, you know, I'm here I know that you're also, you also pay a little bit of attention to college, women's college basketball as well. But I think that there's a huge difference right now in terms of the men's tournament and the women's tournament, and that is that the men's tournament, like you mentioned, there's, like, 7 or 8 teams, you know, that all have a real good shot at winning it. I would argue that there's probably even a few more that you could add in there. There's a lot more parity on the men's side, whereas the women's side, it's like, I think we've got 2 teams, you know, that that are probably gonna win this. Right? Right?

Matt Geurten [00:34:11]:

Yeah. So what I would say with like, when filling out a men's bracket and what I will tell you too, you pick Cinderella teams for the first two rounds, always have one of those high seats have, like, a 1011 to 12 making the sweet 16. You always see, like, 12 is upsetting fives, 11 is upsetting sixes. But when it gets down to the end of the men's side, it typically turns into the chalky teams. Last year was a real surprise with the final 4th FAU and all those teams making it, but you still had the one c or not the one c, but you still had one of the blue bloods pulling off and winning in Yukon last year. When it comes down to the women's bracket, I would tell people, chalk it up. Put all the ones and twos in. I believe it was something like, I think the highest seed ever to win a woman's pack was a 3 seed, and that was when LSU pulled it off last year.

Matt Geurten [00:35:02]:

But the women's, there's not nearly as much parity. Where when you have the men's coaching, you have, like I said before, you have Carolina, you have Kentucky, you have, Yukon, you have all these big teams. So the talent in the men's game is really spread out across the country. Whereas when you look at the woman, you have the powerhouses. You have the Yukons of the world, the South Carolina's recently now at LSU. USC is really good this year. Caitlin Clark at Iowa. So the woman, you won't really see those offsets, and I'd expect when you're looking at the final 4, you're gonna wanna put, like, a a South Carolina in the final 4, likely in Iowa in the final 4.

Matt Geurten [00:35:42]:

I wouldn't be surprised if USC and Texas would just chalked all the way, all the ones made it there. And you'll see that too with, even with the odds providers. South Carolina has negative odds to win the women's tournament. They expect South Carolina have the better chance to win the tournament than the field does of winning the tournament.

Andrew Pace [00:36:00]:

That's insane.

Shane Mercer [00:36:00]:

It it is pretty crazy when you see it like that, but I I will say that, maybe maybe some value on Iowa with Caitlin Clark. I mean, she's gotta be the most exciting basketball player out there to watch, men or women's. You watch her play, and it it's just something to to behold. I absolutely love it.

Matt Geurten [00:36:19]:

She on her own, she can win. She can pull up put 50 points up in any game and just single handedly carry her team to a national title.

Shane Mercer [00:36:26]:

That's what I'm that's what I'm saying. And it's just unbelievable to watch when when you when you sort of, just just sit back and kind of just, you know, appreciate her game as a player all around. But, I'm I'm very happy to see, though, that, we're seeing a lot of the major networks that they really pump up the women's tournament this year, which we haven't kind of seen in the past. And, I think that's what they're doing. They're riding that star power of of Caitlin Clark and, and a few others too. You know, you mentioned South Carolina. They've got a fantastic team and an all around solid team. So I think we're kind of, seeing them sort of recognize that, which is amazing, to see because it, it can help us in the long run if the books start hopping on the bandwagon and offering, more women's college basketball out there.

Shane Mercer [00:37:06]:

I think, that's something we would probably love to see. I know I would. Yeah. Anyway I

Matt Geurten [00:37:11]:

think you have I think you have to look at it too at the women's game too. Right? A lot of the men's teams, like, we don't know the players like we used to. There's not many 4 year guys staying and playing college because it's all one and done. Let's get to the NBA as quick as possible. Mhmm. Whereas in the women's side, the game, they have to stay in college. I believe it's a minimum of 3 years. So you get to know the players more.

Matt Geurten [00:37:31]:

You get to know the Caitlin Clarks. You get to know the Angel Reese's of the world. And that's why they can kind of build a brand in college, and you just you can follow them for 2 or 3 years because you know they're gonna stay there. Whereas in the men's side, other than, like, I follow Carolina, obviously, so I know our players. For a lot of these guys, like, you look at who's coming out on the draft this year. Right? You don't know anyone because they all they're out of school for 1 year and then they leave and hop to the NBA.

Shane Mercer [00:37:56]:

Yeah. No. That's okay. It's of course of course, he knows the UNC players, but, you know, I get that. Right? Though, you don't you can't really follow them in that sense or really get to know them and sort of, you know, follow that kind of hype train that that we've sort of seen around some of these players. Yeah. Yeah. Alright.

Shane Mercer [00:38:12]:

Well, it should be an awesome tournament. I'm really looking forward to it. I know you guys are really looking forward to it. Pace, any last words in terms of of just a betting mindset and approaching this tournament?

Andrew Pace [00:38:22]:

Yeah. Rock and roll, have a bankroll, manage your money, and have fun. And, don't don't chase anything. If if you're looking for a certain opportunity or situation, that opportunity will present itself. You don't need to to force it onto a a a different game.

Shane Mercer [00:38:44]:

Alright. Great advice from Andrew Pace, the founder of inplayLIVE, and a big thanks to Matt Guerten, a pro at inplayLIVE and our resident NCAA college basketball expert. Alright, guys. Till next time and for all of you sports bettors out there tuning in from around the world, keep beating those books. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download, and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcast. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below.

Shane Mercer [00:39:14]:

And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code 'BEHINDTHELINES'.