Episode 103

Welcome [00:00:00]:

You're listening to Behind the Lines, a podcast presented by inplayLIVE and powered by Pinnacle, the number one sports book where winners play and never get limited. Go to pinnacle.com/inplaylive to sign up and get in the game.

Andrew Pace [00:00:16]:

So you might not be hugely differentiated.

Shane Mercer [00:00:19]:

There might be some hosts here doing the same.

Ryan Hammer [00:00:20]:

People copied my bracket every year, and I tell them before I post it. I'm telling you you are going to lose. Like, you are going to lose, but they don't listen.

Shane Mercer [00:00:41]:

Alright. Welcome, and it's behind the lines powered by Pinnacle, purifying the sports betting industry. I'm Shane. There's pace. And on today's show, college basketball. It's madness, the trapezoid of excellence. Yes. It's March, and we've got Ryan Hammer with us, a college boop scientist, certified brachatologist back here on the show.

Shane Mercer [00:01:05]:

Ryan, we had you on last year around this time. It was an awesome episode. Our audience absolutely ate it up. So glad to have you back. How have you been?

Ryan Hammer [00:01:14]:

I'm good. I'm happy to be. I feel like it was just yesterday we were doing this, so it's, it's good to be back, though.

Shane Mercer [00:01:18]:

Dude, we're we're so excited to to have you back, and we're gonna dive into into everything, March Madness. I'm really hoping that that, you know, for all of you out there tuning in, that this could really be a primer for you for the tournament, that you could use this to really sort of help build your brackets, inform your betting decisions throughout the tournament. That you're gonna get everything you need from this episode. Episode. And and, Ryan, thanks so much for being here to to do this with us.

Ryan Hammer [00:01:44]:

Of course. Happy to.

Shane Mercer [00:01:45]:

Alright. So, what have you been up to though over over the past year? How is how is the college basketball season, treating you so far?

Ryan Hammer [00:01:53]:

It's been great. I say it every year, but, truly, I feel like this year has been juiced up to the max in terms of, like, storylines and notable players and teams and stuff like that. It feels overall, like, better and more enjoyable. I think I think everyone would say that for the for this season compared to the the last few years and really since the pandemic. But it's been good. I've been doing more things, been doing more on campus stuff and YouTube stuff and interviews with guys and trying to expand my, my world of content beyond the the chart videos, which are also great. I'm still doing those, of course. But, yeah, I'm just doing my best trying to trying to grow my stuff.

Shane Mercer [00:02:29]:

Right. And and you've, you know, you've been active in the betting space. I know when we had you on last time, you were you were working with FanDuel in some capacity. Are you still with them? Have you moved on?

Ryan Hammer [00:02:38]:

So I I I've been independent for I tell everyone I've been independent forever. I do some stuff every now and then, with some brands and stuff, but still, as always, I've been independent. I actually don't I don't class for myself as, like, a betting person either. I understand the the gambling, industry and everything, like, to the max. And I know that people use what I say for picks and stuff, and it's very useful. But, yeah, it's, I'm I'm independent.

Shane Mercer [00:03:04]:

Awesome. And and I know, you know, you say you don't you don't bet, but, I mean, you know, betting's so big. I mean, you must throw together a bet here or there, especially when, you know, you go to so many games. Do you ever throw down a wager when you're heading out to game?

Ryan Hammer [00:03:15]:

I I do sometimes. Normally, if I'm home and I'm doing nothing is when I would versus when I'm going to a game.

Shane Mercer [00:03:21]:

Right.

Ryan Hammer [00:03:22]:

Yeah. Sometimes I'm just super busy also and just, like, I just don't like, I'm doing so much this especially this time of the year that I don't wanna do extra things to add because I wanna make the right picks. I wanna analyze everything properly. But I have time to time, man. I think a lot of people have. So

Shane Mercer [00:03:35]:

Yeah. Fair fair enough. And I get it. You wanna stay objective. But but since you have thrown down some bets, is there any big hits you wanna brag about? But before we get into everything, anything you wanna share?

Ryan Hammer [00:03:43]:

I mean, no. Honestly, no. I I bet I it's very small scale and maybe a couple maybe a parlay for a few, like, underdogs that I like on the day or something like that. But I haven't really hit anything, like, crazy big this season other than a couple of, like, small parlays, like I said.

Shane Mercer [00:03:58]:

Right. Okay. We're gonna we're gonna dive into everything. And, guys, I promise you the trapezoid is coming. Just just hang tight. We're gonna get into it. We're gonna dive into all things trapezoid because I know that's what a lot of you out there wanna wanna see and wanna hear about. But, I gotta ask you before we sort of get into into sort of the nitty gritty of it, Ryan.

Shane Mercer [00:04:13]:

We're in conference tournament time. You know, lot of, moving and shaking going on throughout this week and and, you know, all leading up to selection Sunday. How much, you know, do you see your, rankings, metrics, your methods perhaps changing through the week here?

Ryan Hammer [00:04:31]:

Not not a ton. Okay. People that know what kind of what's going on, especially with how the brackets gonna get seated and set up. Conference tournament week means a lot less than people expect. I think it's very enjoyable, and it's, like, the March for the majority of casual fans around, really, I guess, the countries and world, whatever. But it's the seeds aren't gonna change a ton. I don't unless a team goes on, like, a crazy run or a team is like really the bubble teams are where I look at. The teams that are just in, just out, and they have to win two games or they can't lose their first game, etcetera and stuff like that.

Ryan Hammer [00:05:03]:

And that's kind of really the biggest jocelyn for position. And, of course, there are other things like Florida and Alabama fighting for a one seed and stuff like that, but, nothing will change drastically for sure.

Shane Mercer [00:05:14]:

Okay. Go go ahead, Pace.

Andrew Pace [00:05:17]:

Yeah. I I I I think that's interesting. It actually makes me think about last year. So last year, we we sort of head into the conference week where, you know, we thought we had a bit of a clear picture, and I think it was the highest stolen, tournament bids of all time because of what transpired in this week. So I know that probably didn't change a lot when it came to the actual trapezoid because that actually made the teams that maybe even had a chance or were closer to it, maybe even a little bit less likely. Whereas these other teams that filled in weren't even on our radar, and then, obviously, Yukon Yukon took care of things. But did like, last year, did you see a change after this week because of what I just mentioned or no?

Ryan Hammer [00:06:00]:

Not a ton. So in terms of the bracket, yes, like how the bracket gets set up because, obviously, you're kicking out five there were five Steelers last year who like, you're you're right. This is it was crazy historical historically record, whatever. It kicked five bubble teams out. It kicked Seton Hall, Indiana State teams like that out of the tournament, Saint John's last year. But in terms of, like, ranking, like, metric rankings and, like, the trapezoid you guys are talking about and ratings even whatever, they won't change that much from that. Of course, like, it makes you think about look deeper, I think, beyond the surface into more layers for teams. Like, when NC State went on their run, five games, five wins, five days, it makes you look at them more and be like, okay.

Ryan Hammer [00:06:36]:

We're onto something. They're on fire. So what are they good at? And then it makes you look beneath the layers, but I don't think anything that wasn't already previously there.

Andrew Pace [00:06:44]:

Okay. So on that same note, let's just take Duke because, obviously, they're at the top of every ranking and every every metric you could possibly look at right now. If they don't win the ACC, do we care?

Ryan Hammer [00:06:56]:

No. As long as they don't lose their first game. That's all. That's that's all that matters.

Andrew Pace [00:06:59]:

Okay. So, again, this this is where I struggle with that rationale, and this is separate from, obviously, the data that you're gonna present and show us. But do they not wanna win this freaking tournament? Do they not wanna win the ACC? And then if they didn't, does that not give us some sort of peek into their clutch factor, or do they just not care?

Ryan Hammer [00:07:19]:

No. There there's a layer of that. And, obviously, it's situational, like, if they lose, like, by 20 or whatever in the semi like, that's obviously a problem. But, assuming they don't, it's not that bad. And I think they're gonna play Wake or Carolina almost likely in the in the semis and then probably a little over a Clemson in the finals. The ACC not being great doesn't help what I was saying. It doesn't because, like, what you're saying, they lose to a team in the ACC. It's probably not great, unless it is Clemson or Louisville realistically.

Ryan Hammer [00:07:46]:

But I think you play so many games in in your conference. Right? You're playing, what, like, close to 20 games sometimes in your conference against those teams a year. Like, for the entire season, you place most teams to it and some teams, if not three times, when you play them in the tournament. So I think, like, if Carolina take Carolina, for example. Carolina is they need to win to get in. They need to win a game. They need to win two or three games to get in. So if they come against Duke in the semis and they crunch one out in a really tight game, they even though Duke swept them on the season series cleanly, like, dominated them, if Carolina finds a way to win that game, I don't look at that and say, you know what? Duke's in trouble because it's the third time they're playing Carolina.

Ryan Hammer [00:08:24]:

Carolina's on life support. Like, situations like that where I, like, am just like whatever. I don't really care as long as Duke doesn't look, like, miserably awful.

Andrew Pace [00:08:32]:

Right. Right. Okay. So then on that same note, maybe a better conference example is obviously gonna be the SEC. So all eyes on the SEC this week. We just saw, Alabama beat Auburn in overtime, and, obviously, there's a lot of hype around Auburn. How important is that SEC championship for these these top four, these top four SEC teams that are obviously filling up the the rankings here?

Ryan Hammer [00:08:54]:

Yeah. It's big for a few of them for seeding. When you look at it, like I mentioned before, Alabama and Florida are battling for one seed. So if one of them wins the tournament and the other one doesn't, that's pretty conclusive that they'll they'll get the one seed, and the one that wins gets the one seed. Team like Auburn is kind of the same situation as Duke where they're gonna get a one seed. They're gonna get either the overall one or the second one, and it doesn't really matter that as much. So they're not really playing for a ton as crazy as that might sound. But it again, it's situational for teams where everyone's playing for seed lines.

Ryan Hammer [00:09:26]:

Ole Miss has dropped a lot. Mizzou has dropped a lot. So they need to, I think, also showcase a winning ability because, like, Mizzou, for example, I think they've lost the last three or four after being so hot before that. So teams like that, I think trying to get back on the right track is what this turn the tournament is so important for.

Andrew Pace [00:09:45]:

Right. And then, like, can a team like Kentucky who's obviously been just a historic, you know, March team blue blood, can can they kind of work their way back into, I guess, people's top of top of mind for their building their brackets with this SEC tournament, or are you writing them off?

Ryan Hammer [00:10:05]:

I'm not writing them off. I don't write any BSCC teams out there. I mean, they're like the conference has been crazy. I I see four, five, six, seven teams who can make, like, deep runs. Kentucky is gonna be very, very, very match dependent because they have just been, like, up and down, up and down the entire season. They're more up right now, which is obviously good for them. They've also had injury issues. But I think to make them a key part of someone super active, they're looking at I've watched Kentucky these next few games on a neutral floor, a team that is completely made up of brand new players, and it it's that's a good this is a very important week to watch for fans to watch a team like Kentucky for sure.

Andrew Pace [00:10:41]:

Okay. So perhaps, the the conference tournament week is is bigger for some of the teams that aren't at the very top where we can see how they perform in in these clutch situations to see if they can make a bit of a run for our brackets.

Ryan Hammer [00:10:53]:

Yeah. I'd say anyone that you have questions. I think it's a it's a personal thing too. Right? Like, if someone is out there and says, I've seen enough of Kentucky. I love them. Then you're gonna roll with Kentucky, and that's fine. I have mixed feelings in them personally. So, like, this is the week where I'm watching them.

Ryan Hammer [00:11:06]:

Kansas has been so up and down. I'm watching Kansas this week. I'm watching UCLA, like, to exactly to your point. Like, teams that have won 27, 20 eight games, like, or close to it, you know what you're getting from those teams at the top. And and for the most part, unless they lose right away or lose really badly like we kinda said. So

Shane Mercer [00:11:23]:

Cool. Yeah. So so Good stuff. Ryan, if I'm hearing you correctly, the this conference tournament week is more about some of these other teams outside the top 10, maybe even outside the top 20, and sort of seeing how they perform against some of the the tougher competition to get a sense of how deep into the big tournament could they go.

Ryan Hammer [00:11:43]:

Yeah 100%. And people always fall in love with the teams that are red hot, and they win their conference tournaments. Auburn was a team last year. I'm like, it's hard it's hard to gauge the the value of them losing that first round game because it was so, like, outlier and chaotic and, like, the Chad Baker Mazara rejection and stuff like that. And then there also I think it was two, I guess, three years ago at this point, Iowa was red hot going into the tournament with Keegan Murray, and then Richmond was also red hot. And people counted out Richmond. Iowa was the hottest team in the country.

Ryan Hammer [00:12:13]:

They lost first round. Like, people get caught up in the teams, like, that are just out in absolute fire rolling through these conference tournaments, and then they just get stifled round one. So

Andrew Pace [00:12:22]:

Yeah. You're reminding me of my bracket from last year, Ryan. I had to elaborate. I didn't know Ryan. So I did a I did a an all SEC. Like, I just basically went SEC's got the the the the stacked conference. They got some of the best teams. Let's let's just take SEC teams to beat everybody.

Andrew Pace [00:12:39]:

And I think by, like, I think by the second round well, by by Auburn losing, I'm already eliminated. But you're still thinking, okay. Well, maybe I was on to something not not even close. Right?

Shane Mercer [00:12:51]:

Yeah. That's all. But, you know, that that's what the fun of it all is, though. Right? And, you know, you you you play your strategies, and then you watch them sort of go down in a in a ball of flames.

Andrew Pace [00:13:00]:

That's actually a a good question for you, Ryan. Do you think there's ever an edge to a conference like what I just brought up, which obviously I was like I should've bet the complete opposite. But do you think, like, you go, oh, the ACC is the obviously, this isn't the best example for this year, but the ACC is the strongest conference overall. So because of that, they play in their own bubble. They're much better schools as a result, and they're the they're the teams that are more likely to go forward throughout the entire bracket. Do you ever think that way or no?

Ryan Hammer [00:13:28]:

I usually don't. As long as teams have shown against good quality opponents throughout the year, no matter who whatever whatever commerce that be in. So, like, obviously, Duke playing the AC, AC is not good, but they beat Auburn earlier in the year, and they beat whoever I forget well they played and stuff. But they play Kentucky, I think, in Kansas. Like, they played a good teams the entire season to prove that. And I look in style more than anything else. So, like, the SEC the glaring issue of the SEC is, like, it's a it's a ton a ton of offense, and it's a ton of go go go and a lot of fast paced teams for the most part. So when they play against Big East teams or a nasty big 10 team like Michigan State, like, they're gonna have those teams might have problems in those games where I think other conferences maybe stop the big twelve hasn't been, like, amazing.

Ryan Hammer [00:14:13]:

But I think, personally, at least the big twelve and the ACC is a good example. They have a good balance of everything, something that sets you up for adaptability. And, like, we talked about the trapezoid. You guys love that so much. I know that. That's where that theory comes into play where, like, you're adaptable to different styles. And some of the SEC teams, a lot of them aren't, so that's why they haven't been able to, like, crack that code. So

Andrew Pace [00:14:34]:

Yeah. Right?

Shane Mercer [00:14:35]:

You you you made us a very, special trapezoid, for us just for this show, so I can't wait to share that with people. But before we move on from the Ken Pong rankings that that I'm showing here, on the screen, so if you're if you're just listening to audio, just know that we've been showing the Ken Pong rankings here as we've been going through it. You know, the Ken Pong rankings, I wanna get your take on it because, you know, it it it is kind of like the definitive guide, to to who's who in college basketball. But I know that, you know, some people out there tend to kinda disagree or they have their own rankings and that kind of thing. Where do you fall with the Ken Pong rankings? Do you, you know, do you look at it like a a college basketball bible, or do you, sort of maybe, disagree? And do you find yourself disagreeing with it consistently?

Ryan Hammer [00:15:19]:

A little both. No. I definitely don't look at it as a bible. Okay. I I use it as, like, a, kinda how the committee uses the net ranking where, like, to see teams and the net ranking is bad in a lot of ways. Maybe it's a not a great example, but I use ChemPalm as, like, a sorting tool almost. That's what people will call it. Like, where I say, if you ask me how good is somebody and I have no idea who they are, I'll look at them on ChemPom, like, great.

Ryan Hammer [00:15:42]:

They're two hundred and eightieth. They're awful. They're not good no matter what. And, not to say whoever's two eighty is terrible, terrible, but, I have no idea what it is. But to my to my point, like, I use it to as, like, a blanket understanding as a high, high level on the surface kind of view of a team. But to your point, like, I disagree with so much of it because teams who are have 14 losses. Ohio State's a great example. Ohio State is not that good.

Ryan Hammer [00:16:07]:

They're not very good. They're seventeen and fourteen. They should have no the way that they're gonna get into the tournament, I think, which is should not happen. But they're gonna find a way to get in with 15 losses most likely because of things like Ken Pomp. And I understand it's math, and I'm a math math and data guy, but there are some rankings like this that I just can't get behind sometimes with teams like that. It's very, very nitpicking and situational, though.

Shane Mercer [00:16:31]:

Yeah. Just for reference, Alabama State sitting at two eighty.

Ryan Hammer [00:16:35]:

Yeah. You know,

Shane Mercer [00:16:39]:

So there we go. Okay. Well, let's let's bring up the trapezoid because, you know, that's that's what we've been sort of teasing throughout the beginning of the show here, and that's that's what I think, the people, really want. So, Ryan, you know, you explained this last time you were on our show over, or about a year ago, right around this time a year ago. But for everybody out there who maybe didn't see that show or isn't familiar with what you do, tell us about what the trapezoid is and and how it works.

Ryan Hammer [00:17:05]:

Yeah. So the trapezoid of excellence is, it's a data chart. Basically, this shows all every team. It's a metric, I guess, in a way that tries to predict future champions of the NCAA tournament and and March success in general. So the trapezoid itself is, it it pays by net rate overall efficiency and net rating. So, basically, the theory is the faster you play or the slower you play, the better you have to be at that one style to be able to succeed at the highest level and win a national championship in March Madness in the NCAA tournament. And it it uses historical champions from the last five years to make the trapezoid so that always also adapting for the game, but it uses historical proof, and it has not been broken yet. I also use this chart the way I've discovered it.

Ryan Hammer [00:17:53]:

I use this chart for things other than to find a champion like that. I use, like, look. You can you pulled it up. You see Alabama out there all the way on the right and, like, Drake all the way on the left. I use it for situational matchups to find differences also because the teams like Alabama that play so fast, like, you what you're not choosing between just the trapezoid teams in your bracket. You're choosing Alabama and Kentucky and New Mexico and Drake and maybe North Texas, whatever. Like, you're choosing a lot of the teams that aren't in there, so there's other ways to use it beyond that. But the overall essence of it, the theory of it is that you have to be adaptable to different styles to be able to win a national championship, and that's been proven.

Shane Mercer [00:18:29]:

Yeah. And and, I mean, look. I think, I think you had Yukon, for the past couple of years high up in the bracket, and and we saw how how they performed. Okay. So let's start with Duke in the trapezoid, high up in the trapezoid, right sort of in the middle of the trapezoid as well. And, of course, they are at the top of the Kenpom rankings as we just saw. I mean, have you seen a team like this in recent memory?

Ryan Hammer [00:18:57]:

In terms of metrics and net rating, no. Definitely not. And they have just been unbelievable this entire season. But in terms of eye test, I think there have been a few teams that are better. I think and I think that that attests to the overall level of the game and analytics and kind of modernizing everything within coaching staffs and programs because they're if you look at Auburn and Houston also, they're also two of the highest ranked teams in metric and data history. So it's not just Duke. It's entirety of the sport kinda being elevated, and I think teams know how to manipulate analytics and things better now to get the most efficient style and play out of them. And, you can say that for even mid major teams like VCU and UC San Diego that are up there, excuse me, near the trapezoid.

Ryan Hammer [00:19:39]:

But they they've they've been incredible. They're one of the better teams, the best teams in recent memory for sure. But like I said, I think there have been a couple of better teams on the eye test, and I'm not, like, fully confident. Like, it's Duke and nobody else, and nobody else has a chance to win.

Shane Mercer [00:19:53]:

Okay. But if you were building a bracket today, would would you have Duke winning winning at all?

Ryan Hammer [00:19:59]:

Yeah. It'd be stupid not to. I go against my mind a lot. I go against my mind a lot. I go with my heart, and I would try to find a way to not do it, but I don't know how how I wouldn't. So

Shane Mercer [00:20:08]:

Yeah. Yeah. Fair enough. I mean so so so there you I guess the other side of this then is that everybody out there sees them at the top of the Ken Pong. You know, now they're seeing them sort of, you know, as the strongest team within the trapezoid here. They're probably going to be, the big favorite for the tournament. Everybody's gonna have them winning it all. So let's look at some of the other teams in the trapezoid.

Shane Mercer [00:20:32]:

Where would we start looking if we wanna start looking at teams to knock off Duke or at least, you know, outperform them throughout the tournament?

Ryan Hammer [00:20:39]:

Yeah. I mean, you got the good teams that play at the highest level possible, and then there's other factors beyond this, of course. So, obviously, the highest level, you have teams like Houston, Auburn, Tennessee, Maryland, Florida, Texas Tech, etcetera that are in there. But I think you gotta look at style. Duke plays a crunch down game. They played ridiculously blistering defense, and they're big, and they're athletic, and they're energetic and stuff like that. So Auburn fought them pretty well. I think the Auburn couldn't get them for sure.

Ryan Hammer [00:21:05]:

I think Florida is a would be a huge, huge test for or test, I guess, but it'd be like an elite eight or final four game. I think that'd be a huge one where opportunity for Florida because of Florida size and depth in the front court, and their versatility in the front court. I think that's a team that could definitely do some damage against Duke. It it's tough. I don't see a lot of teams being able to beat them. Maybe Michigan State could dogfight them, but I think Duke would be fine in that game. And I think Houston plays kinda similarly, and that would be a nasty, nasty game and a the true dog fight. But because they play almost as well, similar style at times, I think that could be a potential one too.

Shane Mercer [00:21:43]:

When we're looking at this and we we look at the trapezoid and we see those those slower teams there and and Houston, Tennessee, you know, kind kinda looking at at at the you know, that that section of the bracket on the slower side, the the, you know, defensively oriented teams. Do do you you know, are they capable of slowing down those faster paced teams or or perhaps those average paced teams?

Ryan Hammer [00:22:08]:

Yeah. I mean, yes. Depends who it is, obviously. Like, Alabama is gonna play fast no matter what. When Alabama played Houston back in Vegas, I think it was in the eighties or something like that. I forgot if they went to overtime or not, but Alabama kinda opened the game up a little bit and forced Houston into that kind of style. But 99% of teams are not Alabama. They're the Kentucky, Illinois, and Michigan and stuff like that.

Ryan Hammer [00:22:30]:

Yes. But it's not super simple. I think when you play slow and defensive minded and you're at a such a high level like Houston is, sure. Because, obviously, their system, if you watch it, like, it's ridiculous. It's impossible to break, almost impossible. When you look at teams closer to Tennessee and Saint Mary's and where Yukon and Clemson are and then over to Drake, those teams tend to have lower ceilings in the tournament. When they play that style, but not at, like, an elite elite level, they can % do some damage, but they tend to, as a group, generally have lower ceilings in tournament.

Shane Mercer [00:23:04]:

Okay. So let's go then to to the faster side, Florida, Auburn, and, you know, Alabama just off the charts fast, like, way faster than the rest as you kind of just just alluded to there. Are are are those are those faster teams, like, you know, you sort of just mentioned the game against again, between Houston and Alabama where Houston was forced to play fast. Are those faster teams are they generally able to force those slower teams to keep pace with them? Like, is that more of a trend?

Ryan Hammer [00:23:36]:

I think it's the it's usually the vice versa when you get teams at, like, comparable paces on opposite sides of the spectrum and similar levels. That's, like, very rarely gonna happen when you're gonna have a perfect balance, obviously. But it usually it's easier to think if you think about it, it's easier to slow a game down within your control than speed up a game within your control. Because if you force yourself to speed up the game when it's not going that way, you tend to turn the ball over more and make more mistakes and little tiny mistakes. And then if you make a mistake, you come down the other way, and the team takes thirty seconds to on the shot clock and they get a bucket that's demoralizing, and it kinda that kinda slows the game down a little bit. But the team like Alabama, for example, obviously, like, had like, historical pace, high pace. It's actually crazy. They're gonna speed up the game against 99% of teams and be fine.

Ryan Hammer [00:24:22]:

But teams like Kentucky, Illinois, if they played at Houston or something like that, I think it would be a lower scoring game than than they normally plan.

Shane Mercer [00:24:29]:

Right. Okay. So so when you're when you go to the extreme side, that's where that's where you can sort of force other teams to keep up with you. But once you kinda get more closer to the middle, it becomes a bit of a a bit a bit of a toss-up.

Ryan Hammer [00:24:42]:

Yeah. History says that the slower it tends to favor the slower teams, all thing all things even otherwise. So

Shane Mercer [00:24:49]:

Okay. Now looking at all the teams in the trapezoid here, they're basically all top 10 on on the Ken Pong ranking, except Maryland sitting sitting right over here at sort of the the right side, of the trapezoid there. Talk to me about this team. Currently ranked thirteenth. What kind of shot do you think they have?

Ryan Hammer [00:25:11]:

At a national title, probably is zero.

Shane Mercer [00:25:14]:

Wow.

Ryan Hammer [00:25:14]:

I'm a Maryland fan. I don't know if you all know that or if you ever told you that, but, I'm a passive Maryland fan that people people most of my audience knows about now and stuff, but, I grew up one of the I take that out of the equation. I think they're very good. They're very dangerous. They're very well built to do some damage in March. Their lack of depth is an issue, but not like a glaring issue that I'm, like, super worried about because they've been fine the entire season. They play a really good style of they have two big mismatch that's a problem. They have a guard and two shooting wings that are awesome.

Ryan Hammer [00:25:44]:

They defend like crazy. They defend very intelligently. They don't foul, and they push the floor in transition. So I think they have a great style that could do damage in the tournament, especially when you consider, like, great. They're one of the top seven or eight teams here. They're 13 in Kenbaum, but they're gonna end up getting, like, a four or five or maybe even six if all things considered, seed or something like that. And I think that's a good opportunity to use a trapezoid and be like, wow. Maryland is under seeded based on everything.

Ryan Hammer [00:26:11]:

So depending on who they get, if they have the right matchups, they could do some damage for sure.

Shane Mercer [00:26:15]:

Oh, okay. So so you think they can do some damage? You you just sort of said they're they're great, but you started off by saying they have a 0% chance of winning a title.

Ryan Hammer [00:26:23]:

Win winning a national title like, winning a national title and going to, like, a final four are two they're people I don't think people get that they're so far apart from each other, those two things. And it sounds crazy because you're like, oh, like, San Diego State was in the national championship game. I was at that game with with zero with 100% confidence that UConn was winning that game. Like, before the game started, it I don't know what it is. It maybe it's just, like, you have game after game after game, and you're playing the better opponent, hypothetically and theoretically, as you go on tournament. But it's there's a massive difference between winning a national title and going to a final four or succeeding in general in March. So as a Maryland fan, tell you they can go to a final four, but they will not win the national championship. Wow.

Shane Mercer [00:27:04]:

What gives you such certainty there? And and give give me a because, yeah, I think you're right. I think me and and a lot of other people, who who sort of follow college basketball and and perhaps pay pay much closer attention to, all all the storylines and all the drama as it unfolds sort of now in March, in the March. Talk to me about this disconnect between a team that can go to the final four, but but simply, you know, you think has no shot at winning the the championship. Why is there such a big gap there?

Ryan Hammer [00:27:33]:

I think in the end, there are certain things that kind of roll through in terms of, like, draft experience and roster continuity or overall experience. And, honestly, a lot of it is just trust in history and trust in historical proof. And I have I have learned so much in doing all this for the last few years. I've learned more and more every year, and I've gotten to a point last year really and then and into this year that I'm just like, I know at the end, one of the best teams are gonna win. I I have to just trust what I've been seeing is so consistent year after year after year after year.

Shane Mercer [00:28:06]:

Wow. Yeah. Because I I would think that, you know, if any team has if a team can get to the final four, in my mind, they could win at all just because they got there. But but you you're just like, absolutely not the case.

Ryan Hammer [00:28:17]:

I depends on who it is, obviously. But like like I said, that year, San Diego State, FAU, Miami, it was, yeah, I it was Yukon. I'm one of my friend will that was with, he can attest to it. We went to the final four on the plane. I told him that Yukon's gonna clean through this so easily, obviously.

Shane Mercer [00:28:33]:

Yeah. Okay. We we've sort of been in the trapezoid, and I and I I wanna get out of it in just a moment. But, within the trapezoid here, who would you take to win it all if you can't take Duke?

Ryan Hammer [00:28:49]:

I think Florida is my sleeper a little bit. I like the way they play. I think they're very reliable against any style of team because of that depth and athleticism. I see how Duke defends with their size, and I think Florida has something similar. And they got two two and a half, really two killers at the guard spot. But they got a couple of extra guards that they can roll into the rotation also. So I think they have a really good recipe for for winning also.

Andrew Pace [00:29:12]:

Okay, Ryan. I we gotta we gotta get historic here on the trapezoid before we move on from it. So have you ever missed?

Ryan Hammer [00:29:19]:

No. I that I that this is how it started where when I was first looking when I think of, like, charts to metrics look at, I will just, like I mean, while I'm watching a game or I have, like, a thought in my head, and I'll go fact check myself that on these charts that kinda spit out the images and stuff. And I was curious about pace a couple years ago or maybe it was early last year, but and I went in to look at this, and I looked at historical champions. That's how the green shape became. I was like, wow. Like, UVA twenty nineteen was so slow, but they played at such a high level. So, like, they were the upper left on that going on that kind of incline towards the left. And, when I created the shape, I was like, oh, it's funny.

Ryan Hammer [00:29:55]:

It's a trapezoid. Because, like and I was like, that kinda makes sense, and I kinda went about that. So it uses historical champions. So, no, it has not yet. But the Alabama, I'm scared. I'll be honest.

Andrew Pace [00:30:06]:

Okay. So when you talk about historical champions, like, how far back do you go to build to to look at previous seasons where the champions fallen in here? Like, how many years back have you made this for?

Ryan Hammer [00:30:16]:

I do five years so that it can adjust for any changes in the game with if the sport is getting faster or slower, which hasn't really drastically done a lot. Right. Right. But I do last five years to adjust for those things. Because like I said, like, the efficiencies, not just Duke and everybody, at the highest level at least, are very up right now. So in two years from now, if that holds, the trapezoid will move up a little bit if that if that makes sense. So

Andrew Pace [00:30:40]:

Right. Yeah. That that makes total sense. Okay. So getting into actual futures odds, of course, you can go over to pinnacle.com/inplaylive to bet, the futures for, the this tournament that's upcoming, obviously. We're sitting here in conference week, so we may see some odds changes. Duke is the favorite. The best, best lineup there is around 4.25 or plus three twenty five for them to win at all.

Andrew Pace [00:31:04]:

If we go down the list, the highest or the lowest paying team, so the shortest odds that isn't in the trapezoid is Alabama. You already brought them up. They said they scared you. Before you said that, I was gonna ask Yeah. You know, do you think they have a shot? I think you already answered it.

Ryan Hammer [00:31:21]:

Yeah. It's I can't say they don't because, like, they'd be in every they'd be in top level teams. They'd be Houston. They'd be Auburn. Like, they have showed pretty glaring holes where I think that they'll drop at some point in a tournament setting. But you saw last year how hot they got. And, like, they like, when they're on, they're they're just freaking on. Like, they're it's hard tough to stop.

Ryan Hammer [00:31:39]:

I was down in Tuscaloosa Couple Weeks ago and, like, watch them live. You get that feel. They have so much talent and depth on their team. Like, it's tough to say they have 0% chance. I I won't say that because they are good, and they could definitely break it.

Andrew Pace [00:31:52]:

Right. Well, it's it's interesting too because they their their ability to score sometimes mirrors a little bit more of an NBA style game where you say the first look's the best look with the pull up threes, and those are really hard to guard. Right? So Alabama is sitting at 12 o or plus 1,100. I wanna keep going through the the odds here, because now we're getting into teams in the trapezoid that start to have a really appealing, payout. So Tennessee's plus 1,600 or 17 o. Do you think they could get it done?

Ryan Hammer [00:32:24]:

I I have no trust in them winning a title. They haven't been able to crack into the final four, and, Rick Barnes has not been able to get to that level even with Dalton Connect when their offense was at the best it's been in so long in their crazy style. They've also been have shown glaring holes in the last couple of years as a system in their team, and I I I don't have confidence that they can win a national title. No.

Andrew Pace [00:32:45]:

Okay. Right. So that's two teams in the trapezoid of excellence that have been, thrown under the bus. Eliminate. Michigan Michigan State is the next shortest odds sitting outside the trapezoid. But as you can see there, the the roof of their the roof of the what do you call that thing? It's touching the Spartan colony. Consider them no.

Ryan Hammer [00:33:03]:

It's the data point is is, I think, a little beneath it, technically. So

Andrew Pace [00:33:07]:

Right. The center. Okay. Yeah. So, do you think they have shot? They're, 21 o or plus, plus 2,000.

Ryan Hammer [00:33:15]:

I won't say a 0% chance. I lean, no, because the team at their shooting outside shooting level has never won the national title, for good reason. And they, like, there have been so many games where they're you're like, oh, this their offense looks rough right now. And I actually think their offensive rating and things like that is pretty is not ideal for historical metrics and just in general.

Shane Mercer [00:33:35]:

They're they're a terrible three point team. Right?

Ryan Hammer [00:33:38]:

Awful. They shoot, like, 30%, but what I will give them is in the last five games, they're shooting, like, 34, 30 five percent, which is not great still, but it's not awful. And they're shooting the ball better, finding better looks, and Jace Richardson has been incredible in being that guy. But I'm I would say I won't say 0% chance, but I will I would say no if I had to.

Andrew Pace [00:33:59]:

Okay. Good to know. And then now we're getting into the longest odds inside of the trapezoid, which is, like it's exciting. Right? If you're betting and you're like, oh, I you know, Duke is the favorite. I I don't wanna bet on them. I wanna I wanna really big payout. We're looking now at, Texas Tech, thirty one to one. And Maryland, you already touched on, so we don't need to go there.

Andrew Pace [00:34:20]:

But 41 to one for Maryland. Those two teams are kind of exciting. Now in the bottom left, help us out. I actually don't recognize the logo, and it is covered.

Ryan Hammer [00:34:29]:

St. Mary's.

Andrew Pace [00:34:30]:

St. Mary's.

Andrew Pace [00:34:32]:

Okay. So I'll just I'll just bring them bring their odds up here before before if I can even find them.

Ryan Hammer [00:34:36]:

They're not gonna win. Don't worry.

Andrew Pace [00:34:38]:

I still wanna still wanna see what

Ryan Hammer [00:34:41]:

Also

Andrew Pace [00:34:42]:

You go ahead. I gotta find it.

Shane Mercer [00:34:44]:

You'll be scrolling a while there. Pace go down the list.

Andrew Pace [00:34:48]:

St. Mary's is, woah. What is that? Plus 10,000.

Shane Mercer [00:34:56]:

Exactly. Sound about right?

Ryan Hammer [00:35:01]:

So also behind Florida. Gonzaga is up there too. I don't know if you guys noticed that.

Andrew Pace [00:35:06]:

Oh, no. I didn't see that. Okay. And then okay. I'll I'll I'll search them as well. I didn't that's that's important. So, yeah, thanks for saying that.

Ryan Hammer [00:35:12]:

They're snuck in there right with right with Florida, but

Shane Mercer [00:35:14]:

Oh, they're right behind Florida. Right? Okay. Okay. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:35:17]:

Yeah. Yeah. 51 or plus 5,000 for for, Gonzaga. So those are the long odds inside the trapezoid. So do do any of these long odds, do you think they can make a run? Do they have a show?

Ryan Hammer [00:35:28]:

Oh, a run for sure. There there are two teams who have always manipulated metrics unintentionally manipulated metrics by dominating teams throughout the WCC play. Even though Gonzaga has been very shaky this year, I think that they both could I think Gonzaga is they're always good. First of all, I like their team a lot before the season. Even now, I still like them a little bit. I wanna see their seeding. I think they could be more dangerous than Saint Mary's. Saint Mary's played the same system they always have.

Ryan Hammer [00:35:55]:

They're very, very good at it, but they have never made a speed 16 with Randy Bennett. They're in the tournament every single year. They can never crack that code. This would be the year when the with the right setup, but I like, at what what point do you just say, like, yeah, they're just not it's just not gonna happen.

Andrew Pace [00:36:09]:

Right. That's fair. Well, I mean, they're just from a a betting standpoint, there's people that have said that have said, you just take the underdog in every single round of March Madness, and you're you're gonna make money doing it. And people have tracked that year in, year out. And I think last year actually became really difficult for a lot of people. They they got hit pretty hard doing that. But you can go through and look at some of these teams to make the sweet 16, to make the elite eight, to make the final four. And, yeah, some of these teams like Saint Mary's have long odds eve even even for that stuff.

Andrew Pace [00:36:35]:

So maybe that can help, help guide some people, with their decision making. Like you said, this is adaptability. Right? So they're gonna play better against any set of teams than than other teams will be able to.

Ryan Hammer [00:36:49]:

Yeah. And they are all on that slower end, Saint Mary's, at least, and Gonzaga on the faster. But, like I said, Saint Mary's in that in that range of low ceiling teams in the tournament. I know their net rating is high, but don't let it deceive you like it always does. Right.

Shane Mercer [00:37:03]:

So so, Pace, just remind me again. What were what were the odds for Gonzaga, and what were the odds for Florida?

Andrew Pace [00:37:09]:

Gonzaga is 51 to win it all. Okay. And and Florida is is eight to one, eight point o.

Shane Mercer [00:37:16]:

8.0. Okay. And and, Ryan, Florida was your pick if you were to take Duke.

Ryan Hammer [00:37:24]:

Probably. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:37:24]:

So so maybe some value on Florida at eight to one, but potentially there. Right? Hey Pace, what do you think?

Andrew Pace [00:37:32]:

Well, I'm by I'm I'm I'm anti SEC now. Oh, jeez. I don't want anything to do with them.

Shane Mercer [00:37:40]:

Hey. You're you're not supposed to let past bias influence, you know, your your decisions now. Let's let's move on then. If we're looking outside the trapezoid here, where would we be looking for a potential winner if you were to go outside? I know you've already brought up Alabama. You're concerned Alabama could break the trapezoid streak. Anyone else in that area, Kentucky, Illinois, any of these these teams?

Ryan Hammer [00:38:07]:

I I look at teams. I'm like, okay. At what point in the at some point in the year have you shown us that you're you could be better than anybody, any top team, whatever? The only team I see that with is Iowa State.

Shane Mercer [00:38:18]:

And where where are they? Oh, right over here. Maui. Right over here. Yeah. Just outside the trapezoid.

Ryan Hammer [00:38:23]:

They played Auburn back in November in Maui. They were up by, like, 15, and they slipped up a couple of times and ended up losing on a last second tip in from. They looked and, like, Auburn's best team in the country for, yeah, basically, the entire season, and they were then. And Iowa State was kicking their ass, basically. So, they have had injury issues the last month and a half. They've had skids because of that. They've had hot and cold streaks, so I don't love that. But like I said, they showed us earlier in the year that they can be the nation's best team, and they can beat or they can at least beat the nation's best team.

Ryan Hammer [00:38:56]:

So I like that about them. They're playing a little faster than they usually have offensively, and their offense is good be better because of it. That continuity has kinda settled in last year. Keyshawn Gilbert, Curtis Jones, they were allowed they had a lot of transfers and stuff like that. Now those guys are in their second year at the program. Tim and Lipsey's been there for a while. They have depth in the front court. They have a lot of experience.

Ryan Hammer [00:39:16]:

They play they play an incredible style. So if I was looking beyond it for longer odds, I'd go with Iowa State. Like I said, also, that they have been hot and cold, and I don't love that. But they're one of those teams I'm watching this week in the big twelve tournament to be like, show me show me something, and then I can get on board.

Shane Mercer [00:39:33]:

Okay. Any anyone else that that you'd look at? I know you you know, obviously, Iowa State, Alabama. Anyone else out here is just kinda like, you you you don't like any of it?

Ryan Hammer [00:39:43]:

To win a national championship? No. No. No. Definitely not. But there are obviously teams that I think can make runs that are all over the place. So

Shane Mercer [00:39:50]:

Some final four potential candidates outside the stratosphere?

Ryan Hammer [00:39:53]:

Oh, yeah. 100%. 100%. It's I can name six, seven, eight, nine different teams that are there, like, I don't know. Like, New Mexico, I think, is dangerous. I think you gotta look at teams like UC San Diego. I think Texas A&M could make a run. I don't know how far because they're just, like, reckless at times and stuff like that.

Ryan Hammer [00:40:12]:

But there are a there are a few teams for sure. Missouri, Louisville have been good, so it's it's tough to count out anybody.

Shane Mercer [00:40:17]:

Right. Okay. I'm I'm gonna leave the trapezoid up just so people can can can really sort of look at it and and and point out teams and that kind of thing while while we sort of move on from it because I wanna ask you about some of the other, some of the other metrics that that you look at, Ryan, which are, three point percentage and, turnovers. I know I know you sort of create similar, similar graphs for for those, sides of things. Let's go let's let's talk three point teams. Who out there is a is a hot three point team? I think you just mentioned New Mexico. Were they one of the better three point teams out there?

Ryan Hammer [00:40:53]:

I know they can shoot it well. They that's kind of always been part of their, like, part of their bread and butter. I I look at three point shooting as, like, people get caught up in it a lot. Okay. I use it also, of course, and I consider it like, I do consider all things, but I think having a floor of three point shooting is what I look for. Right? Like, Yukon hasn't been wasn't, like, the best three point shooting team in the country the last couple of years, but they were good, and they were good enough. And, you can see that with teams throughout history and stuff. And, but there are also teams like I think Villanova, which I forget which one which year they went to the final four.

Ryan Hammer [00:41:25]:

They were an elite shooting team, and there are teams that will do that, but there are teams that don't shoot the ball that well, that will go further and stuff like that. So I think three point shooting four as a floor and then three point defense, I think, is a big factor also. Can you defend the three really well? Because you can a lot of teams because of analytics rely on the three so much. So if you defend three at such a high level, then you're gonna be able to take someone out of their game like that, and then all of a sudden, you could be making you could be doing some damage right there. So

Shane Mercer [00:41:53]:

Okay. And then and then the other one, turnovers. I know you look at the turnover game, and and I know that anybody who's watched college basketball to any kind of extent knows that, you know, the the way that that these players handle the ball and take care of the ball could change a game completely. You know, we we see all sorts of kind of, boneheaded things perhaps that that you might not see in the NBA happen in college. And a lot of it comes down, to ball control possession and and just, you know, hanging on to the ball, and inbounding the ball. Inbounding the ball can be you know, some teams just complete it can be a complete nightmare for some teams when it comes to inbounding the ball. So talk to me about what you look at when you look at turnovers and and kind of who are the what teams control the ball the best?

Ryan Hammer [00:42:39]:

Yeah. One thing I always look at is if you turn the ball over a lot as a high seed, Michigan is the key example this year, and I think everybody's gonna be in on picking against Michigan very early on, but for good reason. They're terrifying to pick against. They're or to pick with and stuff and support them because they turn the ball around an astronomically, like, just alarming rate. And as a team that's gonna be meant to win their games and they're gonna be favorites, like, that's not good, and they're gonna be putting this they could be put in a situation right away against teams like McNeese and even, like, later on in Saint John's and Marquette and UC San Diego and teams like that that just, like, are blisteringly good turnover teams. Iowa State is good. I think Drake is up there. I always remember New Mexico is up there.

Ryan Hammer [00:43:23]:

Ole Miss. But turnover margin is great. Like you said, it's, like, in a college game especially, and I think a lot of it is yes. Quality is lower than, like, the NBA per se, so you're gonna have more mistakes, and they're younger or whatever. But there also is more reliance on their coaching staff and the system that they have in place. So if cert there are certain offensive systems that will turn the ball over less and more in certain defensive systems like Houston's that turn that force a lot of turnovers, but there's also certain defensive systems like Creighton who don't force a lot of turnovers. And, so it's it's kind of a game right there, but I think it's a very good way a very one of my favorite metrics and basic stats to look at. I think it's a great one.

Shane Mercer [00:44:06]:

Right. Pace, I I was just as as he was talking about, I was thinking about I think it was I think it was maybe Purdue two years ago where we as a as a team at inplayLIVE, we're just watching them turn the ball over again and again and just become totally susceptible to the full court press. Am I am I remembering that correct?

Andrew Pace [00:44:23]:

Yeah. It was the year before they they they won it all. Right. They they were a huge favorite. They got upset in the second round, I think. Yeah. Might have been the first round.

Ryan Hammer [00:44:32]:

Yeah. They lost to Saint Peter's in the sweet 16 a few years ago, and then they lost to FDU, the 16 seed two years ago, I think.

Andrew Pace [00:44:39]:

Yeah. That's it was the the 16 seed, or sorry. The it was the the when they lost, as to to the 16 seed, they couldn't handle the press Yeah. At all. And they kept turning the ball over. And then, as soon as they figured that out, it was it was smooth sailing for them. But, yeah, it's it's actually crazy when you watch the end of a college basketball game where they go, we have to press to to win. And you watch team after team break the press and score the easiest points imaginable because, obviously, there's a mismatch out there if you double team the person with the ball, and they can get down the court with an odd man rush.

Andrew Pace [00:45:17]:

You know, obviously, with no goalie in the net, you just lay it in. Right? And then the teams that can't handle it and what an impact it can have on their game. It's it's truly remarkable, to watch. One of the things that's tricky about this time of year is that the teams may have not really faced it yet. So you have you have a team who has the lead, who is comfortable having leads, and has done well with it all season long that hasn't faced the intensity of a tournament level press. And they don't get to you don't as betters too, we don't get to see it again. It was like, we're watching it now. There it is.

Andrew Pace [00:45:54]:

And then that team's gone. And it's over. And you go, okay. We can't even, like, potentially capitalize that on the next opportunity because the season's done, and it's an entirely new system and and group of players next year. So I found that always really interesting where you just see it unfold in real time, and you're like, well, this is how it is. You know? We gotta take this one in the chin, or we're on the right side of this one. You know, how however it goes from there. But, yeah, the the sir certainly, there are teams that that that simply cannot handle that press.

Shane Mercer [00:46:25]:

Ryan, you mentioned, coaching. And, you know, pace, I think that has so much to do with it as Ryan kinda kind of mentioned there. Ryan, who are the best coach teams in the league?

Ryan Hammer [00:46:38]:

I mean, it's I think best coaches and best coached teams are different.

Shane Mercer [00:46:45]:

Too different. Sure. Absolutely. I I I can totally understand that too. That makes a lot of sense.

Ryan Hammer [00:46:50]:

Yeah. It's it's and that's the truth because, like, I think Tom Izzo is a good example of Michigan State there. They kinda hit both those parts. I think Iowa State with TJ Altenberger and Houston with Kelvin Sampson are 100% up there, but and Shire with Duke also because, like, those teams and systems have could like, Houston could win with any he could pick up people off the street, Kelvin Sampson, and they would win 30 games in a year. It gets ridiculous. But then there are teams like Auburn who have, like Bruce Pearl is a good coach. I'm not trying to take away from him at all. But and, like, Alabama, they have so much talent and ability, and, like, they're gonna be good into some level no matter what.

Ryan Hammer [00:47:27]:

You need a good coach to win because Arkansas shows that you like, they've been better as of late, I guess. But you put Bruce Pearl on NATO with Arkansas's roster, and I guarantee they'd be better than Arkansas is right now. But I I'd say those few teams I mentioned are probably the best well set up. So Right.

Shane Mercer [00:47:42]:

Okay. Well, we've taken a lot of your time, Ryan, but I before we let you go, I wanna I wanna sort of perhaps throw a bit of an impossible question at you because we can't really kinda determine this. The selection Sunday hasn't rolled around yet. We don't know what the brackets look like or anything like that. But if you had to sort of go and pick a final four or even an elite eight at this point, where where would you go? And would it be all bracket teams? And and I guess where, you know, would you go outside the bracket here? Or outside the tournament?

Ryan Hammer [00:48:11]:

I'll always tell everybody that you need to see the bracket for matchups and runs, and I need to see this week. Of course. Obviously. I would find it hard to not take Duke in Florida. I've already mentioned that I like a lot into the final four. It's tough. I think I like teams like like Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Maryland. Maybe one of them, maybe two of them, but I'd also probably still consider Auburn and Houston also.

Ryan Hammer [00:48:37]:

And it depends. Like, Michigan State, I like also, but if I had to take one to answer your question, because I'll I'll play the part here. Duke Florida, Iowa State, Texas Tech.

Shane Mercer [00:48:47]:

Iowa State, and Texas Tech. Alright. So Iowa State, the one team outside the trapezoid that you would potentially put in the final four.

Ryan Hammer [00:48:53]:

Yeah. That's not I wouldn't even look at the trap. Like, I don't I don't live and die by the trapezoid. To pick a national champion, I will make sure they're in there, but I won't, like, be like, I have to get every team in there. I am gonna have the trapezoid make its own bracket this year so that when it beats me, it beats everybody. I'm like, oh god. Of course.

Andrew Pace [00:49:09]:

Well on that note, I think it's important to bring up our we do our March Madness bracket at inplayLIVE, every single year. Lot of fun. We we actually added a metric in, Ryan. I don't know how familiar you are with different bracket formats, but you can have it where, you know, underdogs give you more points, seed rankings give you more or less points. We added one thing this year we didn't have last year. That is a bonus team. So it's a team, essentially, that if they win, you get more points. But if you pick your bonus team to be a one seed, you only get one win times one for your seed.

Ryan Hammer [00:49:42]:

Right right.

Andrew Pace [00:49:43]:

But if the bonus team is a 16 seed and you get a win from them, that's gonna be a bonus 16 points. So you multiply the number of wins by the seed number

Ryan Hammer [00:49:54]:

Gotcha.

Andrew Pace [00:49:55]:

To get an overall bonus. Right? So are you incentivized to take Duke there? Well, if they win, sure. But at the same time, if you could've snagged an eight seed that grabbed two wins, you're gonna get way more bonus points than than if Duke wins the whole thing and you pick them as as your bonus team. But, anyways, the reason why I bring this up is because, Ryan, you're gonna be joining our bracket this year, which is really exciting. So he really gets to show us if he can put his trapezoid where his, his mouth is, shall we say. But you were saying, hey. I'm gonna do an all trapezoid. Yeah. Sorry

Andrew Pace [00:50:30]:

You're saying you're gonna do an all trapezoid bracket. You could definitely do that, with us. And I'm sure there's some viewers here that will will probably end up doing the same. So you might not be hugely differentiated.

Shane Mercer [00:50:40]:

There might be some hosts here doing the same.

Ryan Hammer [00:50:42]:

People copied my bracket every year, and I tell them before I post it. I'm telling you you are going to lose. Like, you are going to lose, but they don't listen.

Andrew Pace [00:50:46]:

Please don't. Right?

Andrew Pace [00:50:53]:

But, anyways, yeah, you can play alongside Ryan, myself, and Shane in this year's bracket. So if you if you if anyone needs the details of that, you can always just shoot us a DM on any of our socials or, or comment below. Yeah. But, yeah, gonna be gonna be another great year of of March Madness fun in brackets. And if you guys are feeling discouraged this time of year because your bracket loses, don't worry. Everyone's bracket loses.

Shane Mercer [00:51:16]:

Yeah. Everyone's bracket's losing. And, Pace, you brought up the pinnacle odds, for for who's gonna win it all, and you went through the list there. But, only a few weeks left here in March, and that's when the first quarter of the pinnacle contest comes to an end. Right?

Andrew Pace [00:51:33]:

Absolutely. So you just have to make a $10 wager. You have to be a part of our free Discord, and you're actually gonna be sending Rodge, the DM now, not Sabrina. Sabrina has moved on from the team. Really excited for her to be, taking on a new opportunity. But for now, you'd be DMing @rodge on our server, so a little change up from the previous, the previous, information there. So I I set it on this week's weekly primer, but I'll say it again. Huge thank you and shout out to, Sabrina for her couple years of service with inplayLIVE.

Shane Mercer [00:52:05]:

Oh, big shout out, Sabrina. Thank you for everything that you did for for inplayLIVE and for this podcast specifically for behind the line. Sabrina's been key.

Andrew Pace [00:52:12]:

Yea, she's probably the one that connected with Ryan. So there you go. Yeah. For sure.

Shane Mercer [00:52:15]:

So, Sabrina, thank you so much for for everything that that you've done, for us here on the show, and best of luck to whatever you're doing next.

Shane Mercer [00:52:20]:

Alright. Well, with that, Ryan Hammer, certified bracketologist, college hoops scientist. Dude, thanks so much for joining us again. Can you commit now to next year and us having you back again?

Ryan Hammer [00:52:35]:

I think I think we did the same as I think last year. I I sure. I guess so. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:52:39]:

He's like, fuck. He's like, whatever. Again. Yeah. Love it. Alright, buddy. Well, best of luck to you and your bracket making and, throughout the tournament, and, I can't wait to to to put it all together. But, to you, pace betters around the world.

Shane Mercer [00:52:56]:

Have a great March Madness until next week. Keep beating those books.

Andrew Pace [00:53:01]:

Before we sign off, Shane, Ryan's been flicking around this ball in his hand the whole episode, so he's definitely got, like, ADHD or something like that, and I see the hoop behind us. Can you give us give us one shot?

Shane Mercer [00:53:11]:

Oh, let's go. All on the line. Oh, great.

Andrew Pace [00:53:16]:

Man, I thought for a bit that was good too.

Shane Mercer [00:53:18]:

Alright. Alright, guys. Cheers. Take it easy, guys. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download, and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below.

Shane Mercer [00:53:35]:

And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code BEHINDTHELINES