Episode 18

Shane Mercer [00:00:11]:

Hello and welcome to another episode of Behind the Lines. I'm your host, Shane Mercer. That guy over there, the founder of the greatest sports betting community on planet Earth, inplayLIVE, that's Andrew Pace. Pace, how are you, buddy?

Andrew Pace [00:00:24]:

Doing great, Shane, doing great. Back after the one week bye week that we had last week. So excited to dive in here.

Shane Mercer [00:00:31]:

Yeah, we need a little bioweeks every once in a while. So for all of you out there wondering where we went, you can expect a few more of these throughout the year as we go along. We are going to need to take a couple of breaks here and there, especially with the summer rolling around. So we'll try to keep you updated on when those biweeks are appearing, but for now, just expect them. But we will try to be here more than we are. Not helping you navigate the world of sports betting, helping you identify the pitfalls that the sports books have laid, the traps that they're laying out there for you. And by doing so, we hope to make you a better bettor over time. Before we dive into today's topic, which is really interesting, we're talking all about dynamic lines and how they change. But before we get into that, pace, I've got to remind all of you out there to, like, download, subscribe, follow us on all the socials at inplayLIVE. And if you want to be a part of the community, you want to see what inplayLIVE is all about on the inside, well, you can join with a special promo code 'BEHINDTHELINES', all caps. It is the very best pricing you will get. All right, Pace, we've got that stuff out of the way. Let's get into today's topic, dynamic lines. How would you define this topic, this idea for someone out there that has never really bet on Sports Live or maybe hasn't bet on sports at all?

Andrew Pace [00:01:58]:

Yeah, well, I guess the first thing I would say is when you go into a casino and play any table game, the payouts are the same. So oftentimes at a blackjack table, you'll have six people all cheering against the dealer. They're all betting based on the hand that they're dealt, obviously with potential double downs and things like that. But no matter what gets wagered on that particular table, the payouts will stay the same. So a really good example that I always like to use is a roulete wheel because roulette wheel has half red spaces, half black spaces, and then obviously one, two, or now even three, apparently three green spaces. And if you have millions of people pouring into casinos at the same time all around the world all for one spin and they're all betting on red, red continues to pay out two times your wager. So if you wager $100, you get $200 back, regardless of how many people bet on that particular outcome. That's a static line, right? And sports betting is really cool because what the books do to mitigate their risk is they have dynamic lines that actually shift with the action that is coming in, with the news that's coming in, be that weather, be that an injury, any significant amounts of money that can be a whole series of public bettors. That could be just one single sharp bettor and the lines move. So to go back to the previous example of the roulette wheel, the more people that wager on red, they would actually be dynamic in the sense that the sports books or the casino would continue to make red less appealing to wager on. And the way to do that is, rather than that $100 returning 200, it might return 195, it might return 190, and so on and so forth as more and more money comes in on red. Now, what's really cool about the dynamic line environment is you get to a point where wagering on black might actually have a statistical advantage. And of course, I'm painting a hypothetical picture here, because the roulette wheel is a stagnant line that doesn't change, but where black actually starts to pay out plus 110 or 2.1 or plus 120 or 2.2 in decimal ODS to the point that there's actually theoretical value on black. So in the time that I've just said this alone, if you were to have had a baseball menu open for the day, there's a good chance that or any really I say baseball because it's high volume, lots of games, any real big slate of games. So college sports would be a really good example of this. College football, college basketball, just in this time frame alone. I can almost guarantee you that a couple of the lines have probably changed just a little bit in the time that you've listened to me say that.

Shane Mercer [00:05:02]:

Yeah, and you're just referring to main market lines there. But then you also have all of those small market lines, too, which are really dynamic and changing on the go up to the minute as results and events take place in any kind of game or match or anything like that. So I did record a few videos that I can share with you now and just to sort of illustrate this point a little further here. So first let's have a look at this one here. This one is baseball, since you brought it up. We had a lot of baseball over the weekend and I was able to get this tracking here. We are watching a plate appearance right now. We've got Kim up to bat, and you can see that the line here for a run to be scored in this inning by the Padres is 3.10. But then we had a foul ball come up, another strike, and we see the line change to 4.6. So just like that, as the play is taking place, as the pitch came in, the line shifted just like that, happening really fast. And you can kind of hear in the background there, we've got the announcer as well, kind of calling the game, but the line actually shifted before the announcer even called out the foul ball. So the sports book was ahead of the announcer by just a couple of seconds. But Pace, we covered that pretty thoroughly in one of our last episodes a few weeks back when we talked a lot about latency. So that's one example there. Now I've got another example that I can share with you, too, as we go through it here. This one also coming from over the weekend here. And this one was from WNBA. So we're talking about live basketball and we've got this WNBA game going on and it's in the fourth quarter and it's near the end. And we're just watching lines here. But you can see that the total for the game is 173 and a half. And that's kind of where it is when I start looking at it and watching it quickly. Oh, locks up. So something's happening in the game here. Towards the end of the game, it's completely locked up and now it opens at 172 and a half. And then it quickly jumped to 174 very fast. So maybe that 172 and a half wasn't a great line. And then what's happening in the game? Well, let's take a look. Oh, we just find out. Minnesota is at the free throw line. So there was a foul and now they're about to shoot free throws. So that's why we saw the line go from 173, lock up and then go to 174 because now they know a team is about to shoot a couple of free throws. And now you can see after they made that first free throw, boom, it's now 174 and a half. And some of you out there might be thinking, well, we're talking only a half a point between 174 and 174 and a half. But Pace, as you know very well, that half a point could be the difference between your bet pushing or you losing your bet altogether totally. Right. So a couple of examples there of how we sort of see the lines change in the moment really totally based on what's happening in the game. And that's just one aspect of the line movement that we see. Pace, the other aspect is what you referred to during your analogy about the roulette wheel, which is that there is also the action, the money coming in on the line that can also influence it and push it one way or the other for a game total. For example, like we just showed up or down, depending on what someone's betting, if we've got a lot of people taking the over or a lot of people taking the under.

Andrew Pace [00:08:51]:

Right. Oh my gosh, there's just so much to unpack with the sports betting lines themselves. So here we are. I'm behind the lines. And we're finally actually talking about the lines. And something in your second clip there, I know you're on Pinnacle. If you guys actually were to rewind it and watch it back, the free throw hadn't been shot and a little red arrow appeared pointing down, and you watched not the number change on 174, the last line that you referred to, but the price. So you saw it go from 1.9s down to 1.88. So when that happens, what actually just occurred is at least one player made a wager on that over at that time. And that means that the next dollar spent, especially with Pinnacle, which is obviously a sharp sports book that allows winners to play the next dollar spent on that market, you're getting a worse price than the last dollar spent. And that's what I'm referring to with that roulette wheel where in theory, black starts to pay better. Well, the other side of that wager, the under, that side of it, the price actually got a little bit better, which then maybe not at that, we just saw a very small line movement there. But maybe you're starting to get to the point where the under might actually become an encouraging proposition if some more money did come in on that over. Now, I'll send a challenge out to all the listeners of our podcast here the next time that you're watching a major sporting event. So be that the NFL, MLB, whatever the case may be, yes, you're going to see pitch by pitch, play by play, shot by shot line movement, with the totals, with the spreads, the money lines, everything. Every little chaotic occurrence in every single sporting event is manipulating those lines in its own way. Obviously, a goal in, say, soccer or hockey is going to hugely impact those lines because that's a major event that doesn't have a high level of occurrence necessarily in those specific sports. But during a commercial break where nothing is happening is where you really start to uncover the hood of what is going on at these sports books. And the reason why I say that is because that is such a good time to see nothing transpiring on the field, the rink or the court, but everything transpiring with respect to what the sports books are doing. And this is where you can ask yourself the question, why are they moving? Why are these lines moving so much? So we saw that little 174 of 1.9 there quickly drop before the free throw has been thrown. And I know that's because someone, at least one person wagered on that over on that particular sports book. Well, what if we take that same impact, but we give ourselves a three minute commercial break where heavy money is coming in on that particular sport? Well, we have seen totals move three points during a commercial break. So not only did the prices change for that 174, but three minutes later it's come back at 177 if they like the over or 171 if they like the under. And by they, I mean the people wagering on that particular game. And you see that happening in real time. And I've referenced this so many times, but it's the whole Bobby Axelrod season one of scene where you go, I stopped watching what was happening over there, and he points at the track, and I started watching what was going on up there. And it's the numbers changing as the people at the track are actually making their wagers. So what does that mean from your standpoint? You the sports bettor when you gain this knowledge and you go, wow, nothing has happened in this match, but I'm getting the under now three points higher, or I'm getting the over now three points lower. The sports books are balancing their action, but not only are they balancing their action, they are interacting with the other sports lines in real time. And I don't mean that there's someone up in a cell tower going, hey, bet way, we're pinnacle. And what are you offering now in this game? Sports bettors naturally move these lines through arbitrage, through sure betting, and through other methods where any discrepancies where time is now involved gives the sports books the opportunity to close those discrepancies and almost link together as one. Again, where more or less, most of the sports books, after a three minute window with open lines with no play occurring, have more or less come to the same conclusion of where the lines now should be. And that isn't their system. It is their system doing it. But it's sports Bettors that are actually bringing those together so they're wagering on the discrepancies that they see. And then, of course, seeing those opportunities close over the course of that time.

Shane Mercer [00:14:17]:

Frame, so many of you out there listening or watching might be thinking, well, okay, Pace, that's all great, but how do I take advantage of that? How do I work this into my betting system to capitalize on these situations? So I've got to ask you, is it better than to wager when there is that discrepancy between the books when the field of play is in action and not during the time out? Because the sports books do have many more differences in their lines that their lines, that there is a lot more separation and they haven't closed that gap? Or is it better to wait for the timeout to occur and see where things fall and then make your wager?

Andrew Pace [00:15:11]:

It's interesting, Shane, because we did the whole latency episode. And what was our big piece of advice if you were watching the game latent?

Shane Mercer [00:15:18]:

Well, I think it was to be sort of monitoring the sports books, right?

Andrew Pace [00:15:24]:

Monitoring the sports books, yes. But if you are going to make a wager, make sure you're doing it with the most up to date information in order for that to happen where the playing field levels is during a commercial break or a time out, right?

Shane Mercer [00:15:36]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:15:37]:

So think about it from the standpoint of I'm not latent. Let's just say that I'm at the event, Shane, and you are latent. You're at home watching one of those shitty streaming services that we went through in our latency episode, by the way.

Shane Mercer [00:15:53]:

You know what, Pace, that's all I got, man. Okay.

Andrew Pace [00:15:57]:

But no, exactly. You understand what I'm getting at, where you say, I'm going to use the sports books and their lines as an opportunity to potentially make money, but you're latent and you do wait for that commercial break. Yes. Now you have the most up to date information, but potentially I got to those discrepancies quicker than you did because I wasn't latent. Now, do discrepancies mean that you're going to make money? Well, no, that isn't necessarily how it translates. You could be like, oh, this book has this line and this book has this one. We did a whole episode on ODS providers as well. So those two different ODS providers are providing sports bettors with completely different lines in that particular moment. Well, how on earth do you know which one to wager on? Right? And then that's where obviously there are people that do this arbitrage betting as their method of long term profitability. And long term would be a bit of a loose term there because sports books unfortunately, do have ways to identify those types of patterns in your wagering to then obviously shut you down as quickly as they possibly can. So you think like, oh my God, I got this system and this is really awesome and I'm playing these two books against each other. They can catch on to that pretty quickly and shut you down. But this is where you get into, I would say, what I would call the start of identifying value so that you do actually have a knowledge of the game, a knowledge of the rules, depending on the sport. You've got the game on in front of you, you've got these dynamic lines and discrepancy or no, because remember how I introduced this was saying maybe that 174 after the end of the commercial break became 177 on the same book. So not two different books on the same book. So now who's to say where that value was, right? And if you're going to try to land in the middle of those two numbers, that can be really challenging in a really grueling process where you put in a whole series of wagers and a whole series of time where you're losing the juice and the ODS of it actually landing between those two numbers. Maybe it's the first quarter of a game or a match or whatever and you go, geez, they're really not landing in here. This is a lot of time for a very minimal output, shall we say. So that's where the process of really becoming comfortable with how these lines are moving and also how the different ODS providers actually do dynamically move their lines. Main market versus minor market. So with that WNBA game that you showed, you showed the game total, that's a main market line. Whereas with baseball you showed like some Inning total or something like that

Shane Mercer [00:18:56]:

Ya Team total for the inning.

Andrew Pace [00:19:01]:

Right, exactly. And perhaps just me placing a wager could take that team total market from that four point whatever and drop it right back down into the threes because it's a minor market that isn't seeing a lot of volume. So you start to get a little bit more comfortable with actually how these lines move, when they move, why they move, and then based on the way the games are going, patterns, tracking, money management, all those types of things, you can go, hey, I'm actually able to identify value on a consistent basis. And then you have to learn that just because you identified value doesn't mean that it's going to win. Right. So, yeah, I think that whole process is a really powerful learning experience. It's like being a software engineer where you're in your elements and in your screens looking at all this, or a day trader as well where you really do have to become comfortable with all that. And it's not something that happens overnight.

Shane Mercer [00:20:12]:

It certainly doesn't happen overnight, I can tell you that. You know how many nights pace I had, like, after a football day, a football Sunday where we're also doing college basketball, or even if it was during the week, where after staring at the lines for so long, I'm just like, oh, I need a break. I need to stare at a wall. I need to just close my eyes and take a break and break away from it. It takes a long time to, one, build up that understanding of what's happening. Right. But then two, also build up a tolerance, a mental sort of stamina almost like I think we've talked about running a marathon before on the show. You have to train for it. Well, this is in many ways sort of building up that mental endurance that it takes to watch lines for a certain number amount of time and pace. I mean, you must have the endurance of an African marathon runner, someone from Kenya or something, because you do these marathon streams that last 12 hours and you're staring at lines.

Andrew Pace [00:21:18]:

I always like to talk about the concept of the love of the game, watching the lines. Maybe the idea of day trading stocks is really unappealing to you because of the fact that that's really what it is. Line movements and following patterns and things like that that are all on the screen for the love of the game is actually the love of sports. And understanding the line movements is this really cool concept that, yes, can be grueling and a little bit painful on the eyes. You definitely want to grab a pair of these blue light glasses as alluded to in our Equipment episode that we chatted about recently. But eyes on the game for me. I look at It and I Go, if I Wasn't betting on Sports right now, I'd probably want to be watching this game still. And that's where the love of sports can really be the driver of everything. And then the knowledge of the Line movement and How You play it is just something more or less than you put in your back pocket. I do want to Note with Respect to some of the things we've referred to here, I Did say arbitrage as a Word and I just want to make sure that people understand that that's the concept of ensuring a Profit by playing two Books against each other. So it's a very simple example of this is if you had the San Francisco Giants moneyline at -130 in American odds on one sports book, and then on another sports book, you had the St. Louis Cardinals, who they were playing against that day at plus 135 or higher. Let's say the sum of those two numbers in American ODS are greater than zero and you've actually insured a profit. So for every dollar that you spend on those lines, provided that they aren't moving, you've taken no risk. And the Sports books that have actually offered the wager to you are the Ones who have actually taken the Risk in those particular circumstances. So with these dynamic Lines and Me talking about a 174 jumping up to a 177, those do present Arbitrage Opportunities. But from the standpoint of lines being Dynamic and live Sports, I think we shane in those two clips you pulled up, we watched the Line Move not even once or twice. We watched The Line Move close to ten times, probably in a series of a few seconds. So you might see an Opportunity like this. But to actually wager on it with a counter counting down your bet where you actually physically get the bet in you end up oftentimes not getting in to an Arbitrage opportunity where you have to then make a decision on, okay, do I get out at a Loss so where the Sports Books Win regardless of the outcome? Or do I ride one side of a wager that maybe I didn't even want to take necessarily and hope that that one side wins. This Is Where when I'm talking about those razor thin margins -130 and plus 135 you apply volume to it and You Might Build, Build, build and all it takes is one example like the one that I just gave you. And you can lose one side of an entire wager or lose a bunch of juice trying to get out of a wager in that exact same circumstance. So It might sound easy when you talk about It, but in actual practice or execution it can be a real challenge. And I think that even to the top professional arbitrage or sure betting experts that are out there, that challenge still exists and presents itself. And it is a big part of setbacks on a regular basis. Not to mention what if a goal scored in sports like soccer or hockey, where all of a sudden in the middle of this opportunity and one side's in and the other side has gone horribly for you, how you handle and manage that? And in a lot of cases, the answer is that you take a serious L.

Shane Mercer [00:25:08]:

Yeah, that's where those timeouts come in. Right. That's where you really want to maybe take advantage or think about planning to take advantage on the timeout rather than trying to get in while the action is taking place, right?

Andrew Pace [00:25:24]:

Totally. But even then, like I've alluded to, those lines are going to be dynamic as well. So if you're not one of the people that were the early sort of adopters of that opportunity, that opportunity might not be there by the time you actually go to spin the bet.

Shane Mercer [00:25:43]:

I want to ask you too, because a lot of people out there are probably thinking to themselves, well, hey, Pace, my $25 bet, that's not going to move a line, right. Or if a whole bunch of people are betting $10 on this or something, how much is that really going to move the line? How much money does it take to move a line?

Andrew Pace [00:26:01]:

That's a really good question. So this goes back big time to our odds providers episode. And I remember, Shane, your statement in that episode resonated with me in a big way. My journey of trying to figure this whole thing out and make some money from betting on sports didn't have a lot of literature and didn't have a lot of people to lean on because we weren't in these big regulated markets of New York being this legalized sports betting landscape and behemoth of billions of dollars wagered. But here we are now and figuring all those things out. For myself, I don't want to necessarily say that they were surprises more than anything. What they were were a part of the journey. Whereas because there's a chunk of that journey that was provided to you, it was quite a surprise to you to learn about the fact that a lot of these websites were just different color cars with the same engine. Right. And from what does it take to move a market or a line is a very loaded question because the first thing you have to ask yourself is who the ODS provider is and how dynamic are those lines? So I've seen odds providers that regardless of the money that's come in on a particular event, they really don't change that much, or at all for that matter. So we're talking tens of thousands, or in the case of inplayLIVE members, hundreds of thousands of dollars deployed by hundreds of members more or less in that one to three minute window that we're referring to. But in some cases in a matter of ten to 15 seconds that are deployed on a line, the line just stays there stagnant. So I've seen that where nothing moved the line. I've seen where they took a certain amount of action. And the sports book actually tells you this wager or this market has reached its maximum even though the line is still available to bet on. So there's a sports book in Canada called Sports Interaction, and it's really funny, actually, to watch because and they say this somewhere in their regulations or their terms and conditions. This one gets me every single time. It's like we have X amount that we can pay out per market. So if that risk limit has been hit, the line is still there, but it'll actually say, like, we've reached our risk limit for this particular market. And we're not talking about a big sum of money here. If inplayLIVE is calling that line and we're using that sports book, that limit gets hit very fast, right? So that's one way that the books have handled that where, again, the line doesn't move. But more commonly is a similar situation to that that isn't published or posted on the website, where they actually pull the line down. So you'll see the whole market get removed. You'll see the whole game shut down altogether, where they go, holy smokes, a bunch of money just came in. We don't want more money to come in. Let's just let game flow come back, and then we'll come back at new lines entirely. So they do a little reset, maybe that even has a manual element to it on their side. So the automated process, someone just hit a button and said, no, this is too much action for us, or we don't like the situation we're in, and they can manually adjust a couple of the lines and then bring them back up. So when you talk about, oh, I'm only betting $10, or I'm only betting $25, well, that might be amplified by hundreds or even thousands of people. And then all of a sudden, that amount of money can get significant. And that's where, again, at a commercial break of an NFL game, you might have $25 bettors coming in like wildfire on the Dallas Cowboys to come back in a certain game, because that's where the public money was pregame, and they can't let go of their public perception. There's some Cowboys games that have 90% of the money on the Cowboys. So a commercial break hits where they're down seven nothing, and you get the whole we can't lose thing, and those $25 bettors sure as hell move the line. And then finally is the actual Sharp books that do a really good job of these dynamic lines, and every penny goes into impacting those lines. But there still is an. Opportunity to get in on that sort of first wave where they're all spinning at the same time and you got that one line, and then it can come back open again or it moves after that first wave came in. And you might have an arbitrage opportunity at that book in a matter of 30 seconds where you got in that dynamic line, move, move like crazy and all of a sudden, you could get out of it before actually even seeing a second of play. If that's your style of betting, those opportunities exist regularly with those dynamic lines.

Shane Mercer [00:31:01]:

You brought up a lot of interesting points here that I want to dive into because I think this is where we can really get into some of the traps that the sports books lay for bettors out there when it comes to spinning in on these lines. So first, let's talk about that spinning in. There's a lot of rec bettors out there pace who are probably listening and watching us and thinking, what are you talking about with this spinner? Well, after a certain amount of time, if you've shown that you can win a few bets in a row, sports books often will hit you with a shot clock or a spin clock. And it doesn't always necessarily exist for everyone, depending on the sports book you're using, right, initially, you might be able to get your bet in instantly, you press the button your bets in. But after some time, you might get this clock or some sports books just have the clock right off the bat, and it's a few seconds. But what it is, is you click the button you want to spin in, and it waits, and it waits, and it waits a little bit more. And now I'm into the bet. And in that amount of time, it might have only been 5 seconds or 6 seconds. But as we've discussed, the lines are dynamic and they're shifting and they're changing. And so depending on your settings, you 1 may have either been spun out of the bet, so you didn't get your money in at all, and now you've got to try again, maybe at a different line, a different price, whatever it might be. Or you did get in, but you may have this little tab, this tiny little square ticked off that says Accept all ODS, right? And a lot of those sports books have that where you can click that. But if you have it clicked, well, then as it was spinning. And during that time, you may get spun in at ODS that maybe you didn't like or maybe a number you didn't like, an over and under that's lower or higher than what you wanted, and you might even get it at a number you didn't want and ODS you didn't want. Right. This is one of the ways in which they can kind of get you. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:33:12]:

And I think we alluded to this in our tipster episode. But this is where you say with the whole dynamic line situation is that when a wager is called by a sports betting service and then you say, oh, what's your record? And we talked about all that, obviously, but how many units have you gained? That doesn't mean that the record that that pro gives you is what's accurate because that implies that you got their ODS on every single wager that was called and there's going to be times where you get better ODS and there's going to be times that you get worse ODS. What Shane's referring to there is called spooling. That's the process of the spinner and in that time frame and the biggest reason for the spooling is to prevent courtsiding, courtsiding being showing up to the game and wagering at the game. They create that spooling process to not ensure because it still exists to a certain extent, but to limit the success of court siding players. Now there's a real nasty practice that goes down inside of the spooling that you kind of alluded to but maybe didn't fully get there. And in that process, the sports books have the ability to free roll you and you'll see it time and again. And even with the most reputable of sports books in the process of that shot clock rolling, some sites it's 5 seconds, some sites it's literally 30 seconds.

Shane Mercer [00:34:43]:

Which is an eternity when you're betting on live sport.

Andrew Pace [00:34:48]:

Eternity. And not to mention, not to mention if you don't have accept any ODS clicked. If you don't have that clicked when you're placing the wager, yeah, in 30 seconds you're telling me the lines aren't going to move, they're going to move.

Shane Mercer [00:35:01]:

They'Re going to move. You're never going to get your bet in.

Andrew Pace [00:35:03]:

The sports bettor is sitting there literally completely at like hopeless completely sitting there going will I get this bet or not and will something bad happen during that time that impacts things negatively? So in the spooling process, the sports books practice that occurs on a regular basis across the industry is if something good happens for me, the sports bettor, the wager is rejected. If something bad happens to me, meaning what I clicked on has in that short time frame. But how many goals are scored within 1 second or less? Well, they're all scored in 1 second or less. Right. So during that time frame, if something bad goes against me, then the wager gets accepted, which gives these sports books yet another way to gain a really unethical and unfair edge against their players. So that spooling process is a dangerous period of time for the sports bettor. But some sites are more reputable than others when it comes to all that. And yeah, I think ultimately what you're getting at with respect to that is if you do click accept any odds, yes, you can get in at worse lines, but in some cases you can get in to a situation that you can't recover from.

Shane Mercer [00:36:26]:

Yeah. So I guess what tips do you have out there for people who are maybe trying to navigate this for the first time? Is it again, just wait for the time out? Because we are likely to have less line movement during the time out and maybe that's the best way. Or is it, hey, click that accept all odds and roll the dice.

Andrew Pace [00:36:54]:

Yeah, I can't give out that advice. I actually disagree with you, Shane, about the commercial break thing. I think the lines move more then.

Shane Mercer [00:37:02]:

Yeah, more money coming in.

Andrew Pace [00:37:04]:

There's more money coming in, but it's also the opportunity to rebalance. So you're giving the sports books this time frame to analyze the money that's come in on certain markets, to change them, to pull them, and that is where you do actually see a lot of movement. And what I mean by that is you might have a game that's consistently giving you a better opportunity on one side of the game while the game is actually being played. But because of the time out in the commercial break, that gave the sports books the opportunity to actually correct that. Now from the standpoint of spooling and you getting screwed over, the commercial break is the best time because you're not going to get screwed over during a commercial break. A goal is not going to go in in that time frame. We know that, you know that. They know that you're making a fair wager, a fair proposition with that sports book at that time that can't hurt you with respect to what you've both agreed upon. So during a commercial break, if you click accept all ODS changes, could you get it in a worse line? Yes. But if you didn't click accept all ODS changes and clicked only accept better ODS changes on the sports book when you actually go to place that wager, I am under the belief that you will get that wager in. You might not get the initial line that you got, but you will have placed a wager that you agreed to place that won't get spooled into total disaster. Now, I have had several instances where I've been spooled and spun into a bad bet in, in a whole series of different fashions. One of the ones that can be really, really bad is a line that's posted visually to the client that's clicked on. And visually, in the bet slip, that wager is what you're placing. But in your bet history, that isn't the wager that got accepted on their end and they made a decision to place the wager regardless. So an example of this would be, let's say that we had like a first quarter winner in the NBA, right? And it is a commercial break, and I placed that wager at 2.1 and every other sports book was offering 1.5. Visually, that's the wager that I placed. But the sports book didn't actually show their true ODS at that time. It was some sort of display error in that particular instance. And then you go and actually click on it and then you look at your bet history and they spun you in at 1.5 as well, even though that isn't what you agreed to on your end of things. So from that standpoint, always refresh your browsers and make sure you're getting it right. But even then that stuff still happens. This is why this podcast exists. This is why inplayLIVE exists. When this stuff happens to you, it is so unethical, it is so wrong that you feel that you have to do something about it. And you can go complain to the chat, you can go screaming at them, you can go do that and you're just going to get no resolve. Whereas if you build a team of people that are all like minded, that have the opportunity to combine this knowledge to make long term profits, then you have the ability to make an impact on them for these decisions and for these practices that they have with their customers. And then you go to the regulators, the legislation, whether that's a screenshot, a screen recording, whatever the case may be, and you expose them and you potentially go to the media as well. You expose them for these practices so that they become illegal. They become something that gets eliminated from the industry and the industry becomes increasingly purified from these harmful and terrible practices that we see as it relates to these dynamic line. Part of this is the dynamic lines, but also part of it is their system in how they accept the wagers that are being placed.

Shane Mercer [00:41:11]:

Yeah. And for all of you out there who are listening and saying, oh, well, Pace, that sounds like a lot of work, it really isn't. All you have to do is know who your regulator is, where you are, your jurisdiction. If you're in a regulated market, you go directly to the regulator. If you're not in a regulated market, a lot of these books have to operate out of somewhere. A lot of these offshores, they operate out of Malta or Kirisao or someplace like that. And you can email a regulator there and at least your complaint is filed and you know it's being heard or at least seen by someone that isn't the sports books customer service team. Because face you can get into. You can have a lot of headaches doing stuff like that, right? And it can be a little bit annoying and frustrating to go through that whole process and now your mindset is completely out of whack and you probably shouldn't do any more sports betting at that point. Maybe take a little breather or a break.

Andrew Pace [00:42:09]:

Totally. And I think that a lot of the practices we've touched on relating to the sports books like that could be a long verification process. The limiting of customers, the spooling and the shot clock, which when they don't accept your wager, is a frustrating process, especially recreational bettors. They'll get really frustrated trying to get a bet in that causes them to wager on a worse line and a losing proposition over time. All of those processes and practices that they have, they get you in a bad headspace, they get you tilting, they get you in a poor mental headspace. And when that all gets combined, that leads to long term losses in sports books, profits. So these dynamic lines, I think, are hugely beneficial to the right sports bettor, to the sports value analyst, the long term person who profits. However, I can say this firsthand, I am not naive to these problems occurring with me. I've gone through them, I've gone through chasing, I've gone through tilting, I've gone through not getting a bed in and taking a bad proposition as a result of it. And when you go through those processes and practices and you learn what's happening behind the lines, it makes you smarter, sharper, and overall better. Especially when you get to share that with other people just because you brought it up. Shane, if you do or are making an appeal, we do have this resource you just head over to inplaylive.com. You click on free tools. There's a whole bunch of free tools here that are really great tracking, free training. There's a betting tool suite with a runline calculator in there, which is really valuable if you're betting on if you're taking, say, the Rangers in the MLB at minus one and a half, you can balance out a minus one flat by using that runline calculator. But yes, here's our free bet appeal resource as well, which will tell you who the regulator is in your area and the best practice for appealing those with that particular regulator. So I think that is a really good resource that's available to everyone that they can check out.

Shane Mercer [00:44:14]:

Yeah, no awesome resources. They're free tools, too. I mean, come on, how can you beat that? You can go out there and you can use these for free. Absolutely cost you nothing. And it'll help you make some money and make you a better sports bettor. So I definitely encourage all of you out there to go check that out, play around with those tools a little bit, see how you can make them work for you. And again, like he's mentioned, they're completely free. So all you have to do is just go to the website, check them out, but also using that link if you do want to file a complaint, that really helps you figure out who best to complain to. And Pace, as you mentioned, that's why we do this podcast, right? It's all about trying to purify the sports betting industry, trying to make it a more ethical landscape, a more fair playing field all around.

Andrew Pace [00:44:58]:

Totally. And I think Shane just on that note if anyone is listening and has evidence of these things that have occurred to them, and you have gone to your regulator pat on the back. If you haven't, go to your regulator. Now, regardless of how old the story is, provided that it was placed in that time frame of the area that you're in being regulated. But feel free to reach out to us. We put together these stories, we bring them to the media. We have amazing contacts that can get this stuff displayed and out there. And if you want to remain or sorry, if you'd like to be anonymous with respect to this stuff, we can always make sure that that's the case. So feel free to reach out to us with your stories with respect to anything that's happened to you in that category.

Shane Mercer [00:45:42]:

Yeah, 100% reach out. And who knows, you might even end up here on the podcast with us, chatting with us. Right? Pace, is there anything else important about dynamic lines that you think we left out? Anything that we forgot to mention?

Andrew Pace [00:45:55]:

Yeah, there's one thing that we haven't touched on yet, and we talked about the whole market being pulled where they've reached the profitability maximum for that particular market, and then the other books that actually do just pull the lines and then come back. There is another shady practice that occurs with respect to dynamic lines, and that might be one side of a wager got wagered on a little bit too heavily. And you will see, for example, let's just say that the over on a live market got pummeled into oblivion and wagered quite a bit. The over is no longer offered, and they only offer the under that can be a trap for a recreational bettor where they want to bet on something, and they think to themselves, oh, I want to bet the over. And weird, it's not available. And then they go, oh, just bet the under, right? Because some people, it's not about the bet, about the bet itself, it's about getting that itch scratched. We've touched on this before, but we do get a dopamine hit every single time we place a wager. So sometimes it's not about the outcome of the wager, it's about getting your dopamine hit. So you place a bad bet in order to satisfy the thrill of betting. And think about it from this standpoint, right? If you are making a losing proposition over time, like the roulette wheel. So red or black? And Shane. Think about it. You're with your friends in Vegas, right? And you walk up to a roulette wheel and you're like, hey, we're pumped, we're amped, we're ready to get Vegas started. And there's a famous scene from Entourage. Vinny Chase goes in, he drops a $5 bill on red to start out his trip at the old Hard Rock that was just off the strip in Vegas. And they're like, yeah, Vince hits $5 on red. We know it's going to be a good weekend. He drops the $5, it hits red, doubles it up to $10, and then he tells the dealer to keep all the money. It was just like a tradition that they had as buddies. But imagine having a similar philosophy to that, and then you go to place the wager on red, but the casino says, oh, we're only taking wagers on black for this wheel. Would you place the wager still? And I think that in most cases, people will be like a bunch of your buddies. They'd be like, just bet black. Who cares? Right. So you still end up taking the wager because that's what's being offered. You get the dopamine hit, and the probability of the over or under hitting in theory is the same on both sides, and the probability in theory of red or black hitting is the same on both sides. So that's where someone else just goes, oh, just take the under or just take black. And that's the case. So the sports books do this. A bunch of sharp money came in on one line, and then only one side of the bet is offered. And that's not fair. So keep your eyes out for that one as well.

Shane Mercer [00:48:49]:

Yeah. And if you do see that, chances are the line that's not being offered is probably the bet you wanted in the first place. Right?

Andrew Pace [00:48:58]:

Well, they're offering a side to balance. They're trying to balance their action out by only offering that side. So it's kind of like falling into a trap of helping them out to a certain extent.

Shane Mercer [00:49:09]:

Yeah, that's exactly what it is. Yeah. Well, for all of you out there, I hope that you found this episode informative and that you were able to take something away from it. And it helps you better understand the lines as they're moving, as they're changing, as they are developing live during the game. Because that's pace we talk about it all the time, but that is also where all the opportunities lie, right? It's in that live play, that live wagering atmosphere where you can really kind of take advantage and make some money and hopefully become a better bettor and a long term profitable bettor, right?

Andrew Pace [00:49:47]:

Absolutely.

Shane Mercer [00:49:48]:

All right, buddy. Till next week, keep beating those books.

Andrew Pace [00:49:51]:

Cheers.

Shane Mercer [00:49:52]:

Thanks for tuning into another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcast, have a betting story or want to be featured on our podcast, drop a note in the comments below. And if you want to join inplayLIVE, use promo code 'BEHINDTHELINES'.