Episode 49

GosuThune [00:00:00]:

I've been at 5 sporting events where there's been a mid, mid game proposal, not by a player, but like a fan or something. Twice out of the 5 times, they've said no. So I just think it seems like your chances it seems like it's just not a good idea.

Shane Mercer [00:00:28]:

Hello, and welcome to another episode of Behind the Lines Super Bowl edition for 2024. Very excited for this episode. We've got a whole group of the inplayLIVE pros here to join us. And before we dive into everything Chiefs 40 niners, first, I gotta remind you all to like, download, subscribe, follow us on all the socials at inplayLIVE. If you wanna see what inplayLIVE is all about on the inside, we've got a promo code for you that is 'BEHINDTHELINES', all caps, and that will let you into the community fully. You would get to bet live with guys like Shawn Schroeder, one of our pregame pros. He makes a lot of pregame calls in the inplayLIVE community, but he also bets live, of course. We've got TAW Goodman constantly pumping out winners on the livestream.

Shane Mercer [00:01:16]:

And John Wilson, also known as Gosu Thune, here on the show, another pro making live calls in all sports, not just NFL, not just football, but but across, across the gamut of all things professional sports and sometimes even not professional sports too. John, we were talking about you just before coming on the show. You're a league of legends guy too. Right?

GosuThune [00:01:40]:

Right. Yeah. Did pretty well on some League of Legends over the summer when the normal sports are slower. Just when I'm got a bout of insomnia and can't go to sleep, so put on some Korean League of Legends and go to town.

Shane Mercer [00:01:53]:

There we go. Awesome. Okay, guys. Before we get into all things Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 40 niners in the big game, you know, I was having this conversation with my wife the other day about how, you know, the Super Bowl, sure, it's exciting. Yeah. We're watching the best 2 teams compete, you know, and and win that championship. It's what every team hopes for at the beginning of the season. But, you know, every time the Super Bowl comes around, it's just like you start to feel a little bit sad.

Shane Mercer [00:02:22]:

I think as somebody who, you know, regularly looks forward to Sundays, whether it be from a fantasy football perspective or, of course, what we do in terms of live betting or or, you know, if just doing pregame wagers and you're, you know, you're waiting to see if your your bets hit. You know? All of that excitement's kinda gone at this time of year. Right? We've got one final game to look forward to, and then we have the most amount of time before NFL football comes again. And it's it's kind of a a sad time in that sense, but also very much a time for reflection to look back and and see how did the season go. Did it go as planned? You know? Did I did I achieve the goals I was hoping to when it comes to my sports betting on on NFL football? So, why don't we start off there? TAW, how did it go for you? How was the season as a whole? And is there anything that you're looking to to possibly improve on for next year?

TAW Goodman [00:03:14]:

Yeah. Season as a whole was a success. You know, it started as it does in a lot of years for me. Some of the just figuring out how the sportsbooks were changing, how the markets were changing. Some of the lines that were posted the years before weren't really there this year. So some of the like, I've always been big on certain aspects of quarters, during football games, and I've had to kinda shift and and go a different direction with that. But in some ways, books overadjusted a different kind of way and was able to excel on that. And so, you know, looking at that and taking in that into account, it's like, well, now how is that gonna change for next year? Right? Because I'm expecting that it may not be exactly like that again next year.

TAW Goodman [00:04:00]:

There might be some changes. Be ready to go back to what's worked in the past. So, yeah, that's that's one of the things that that I saw, for me personally. Yeah. No. It was a great season. Looking really forward to to a little bit of time off, but I'll be itching to get back into football by, probably by April, and then I'll still have to wait 3 or 4 more months.

Shane Mercer [00:04:24]:

It's a long it's a long wait through the through the spring. Good summer, but, yeah, like you said, a good a good time to kind of maybe, unplug a little bit and and relax. John, what did you notice about this season? You know, TAW kind of mentioning, you know, books kind of maybe overcorrecting in some ways or or perhaps not providing the markets he was looking for. Did you find find it to be a similar experience, and and was there a period of adjustment for you this past season?

GosuThune [00:04:48]:

Yeah. I definitely think that's right. You know, football is interesting. American football is interesting because points are scored in specific increments. So, typically, we we think about, you know, increments of, like, 3, 4, 7, 10. Like, those numbers are very key. So I think what what what he was referencing was books that were typically on one side of those key numbers are now on the other side. And so kind of enticing you to take 1 will go one way or another.

GosuThune [00:05:14]:

So that was definitely an adjustment. You know, it's not something the way it's not the way I've been used to thinking about it. But they definitely did overcorrect. And I think, you know, especially towards the middle and the end of the season, we were really punishing them on that. So I really enjoyed doing that. I think the my my memory of this season will will definitely be, the, how the lack of upsets, the lack of surprises, I think week to week. I think this was like one of the chalkiest kind of squarest seasons out there, in recent memory. I want to say something like, like the 1st 12 to 13 weeks of the season, the public was, was well ahead, like winning 55 ish percent on sides.

GosuThune [00:05:56]:

Pretty wild. I don't know that there's been a season like that in the last 20 years, at least, since I've had access to data to go look at that. So for someone like me, it's like kind of a wise guy, contrarian. Like, that made, especially pregame betting, the NFL this season a little bit trickier than it was in years past. And I think just also the how low scoring this season was compared to some of the past seasons, for those of us who like to bet against human achievement, as we say. They kind of made it harder because a lot of these totals are so low. But, otherwise, I thought it was a good it was a successful season for me as well. So

Shane Mercer [00:06:33]:

Great. That you know, great to hear. I I love the one of my favorite John Wilson clothes quotes is is that one about you'll you liking to bet against human achievement, one of my favorites of all time. It's something that stuck with me ever since then too because I look at that when I'm placing certain wagers and in certain sports too, and it's like, do I wanna bet against human achievement in this moment? And a lot of times, the energy asset, and it works out pretty well. So appreciate that that little that little lesson that you provided. Oh, I guess, when would that been back at back at sort of, the beginning of football season? Shawn, over to you. Now as as I mentioned off the top of the show, you are, like, the pregame pro at inplayLIVE. You know, there's a couple of other guys who make a few pregame calls here and there.

Shane Mercer [00:07:16]:

Shout out to Viceroy Tim, who makes a lot of, MMA calls, and then that's sort of the other pregame guy in the group. But for the most part, Schroeder, when it comes to pregame, it's all you. So talk to me about how things went pregame, throughout the season. Just anecdotally from tracking some of your calls and looking, I think you had a pretty good season.

Shawn Schroeder [00:07:37]:

Yeah. John, spot on, though, with some of the public, data, you know, all you could do is base it off of data. Right? So a lot of the systems that I use to qualify for a play do use public betting percentages as a factor. It's one of the the many things that go into it. We were profitable this year, but some of the systems that were previously hitting at higher clips in the years past did not hit as high as what they did, this year. We did see a huge increase in ticket betting percentages, so the, adaptation of bets are getting higher and higher. So ticket counts were almost between 15 to 20% more on a given NFL Sunday, which I like seeing that because as this gets bigger and bigger each year and as more states adopt this, in theory, there should be more value for the wise guys to come in and get sniped those those lines that are wrong. Although, this year, that necessarily didn't happen.

Shawn Schroeder [00:08:33]:

But overall, yeah, we had a profitable year. Couple weeks that were a little tough, but but overall, we definitely made money on the pregame per NFL, which is one of our well, it is our strongest, bet by far, our strongest sport, if you will, for pregame is NFL.

Shane Mercer [00:08:48]:

You know, it's interesting that you guys, yeah, are mentioning that, you know, we're getting a lot more public involvement, more public betting. And, typically, that would mean more opportunity for the sharp bettors, but it just didn't play out that way in the NFL this year with the favorites pulling through more more often than not. Is that something that we should expect to continue next season, or is it the kind of thing where we just have to put that to the side and and call it an outlier year? And, Shawn, I'll I'll let you kinda kick that off.

Shawn Schroeder [00:09:17]:

Yeah. What I found with pregame is there are a few weeks where, in in my opinion, what what I've seen is Vegas will let the public win quite a bit early on in the season. And then, you know, towards the end of the season, they get all that back and then some. March Madness, for example, I I really think that, we do well in March Madness and same thing in NFL early on. You know, the books may give some money to the public, but in the end, I think the sharp the sharp bettors do come in and swoop in a lot of that profit that they may have lost out on on the earlier weeks. A lot of the public betting percentages, you see that, you know, I'm looking at a screen right now looking at some data for the NFL Super Bowl, and, the percentages are a little scary to look at right now. And, you know, right now, it it it leans on a certain way based on that data, but that's why they play the game. Anything can happen, and we just have to hope that the longevity of our data tracking goes back to the mean, and that it's not variance.

Shawn Schroeder [00:10:17]:

And that, if the sharp side prevails in the long run with that data.

Shane Mercer [00:10:23]:

TAW, I'm gonna come over to you. You know, the only screens I see are the ones in your background there, which is a total awesome setup. You've got it. There's there's a bit of a shot of Mahomes behind you. Do you expect, you know, that sort of trend of favorites to continue, or is that was this just a a bit of a season outlier?

TAW Goodman [00:10:39]:

You know, I think it's something to be said about when you go back,

TAW Goodman [00:10:42]:

and you say, well, the public's been on this and and that because, you know, it's important to realize that, you know, these last few years, we're we're we're starting to see that public change a lot. Right? You know? The I think you're getting a lot more people betting on sports. So, I mean, I don't even I I think the Shawn's better suited to answer that question, but I do think what the public is betting on is changing in that there's the public's more now. There's more people in the public, and I don't know what that'll mean.

Shane Mercer [00:11:16]:

John, what do you think it it may mean having more public money into the equation? Is it something that you're looking forward to next season to to have more of that that those public dollars in there?

GosuThune [00:11:29]:

I mean, more information is always is always better. Right? So the more the more people that are telling me what they think about something, it always helps me make a decision. I think, like, I I just a couple of things I'd say is, like, 1, I I think we sometimes, we give the bookmakers a little too much credit for, like, manipulating people or, like, setting a line some way or another. I think sometimes they just get stuff wrong, and I think they have a little bit of arrogance and just believing that they're right about something and just waiting to get smacked, because at the end of the day, they cheat and just take a percentage of every bet that's wagered. Right? But the so so there's that angle. And then number 2, I think something that is I think it's kind of interesting, and I've I've talked with I used to be a really big pregame NBA veteran. It's kind of how I got started. And one thing that I've noticed and I've talked about with a couple other guys that that do that focus on NBA for a living, they is the amount of money that comes in on NBA games, specifically NBA.

GosuThune [00:12:21]:

And I think this is maybe, this might also be true in some sense for, for football, but definitely for the NBA because of how fun that I think people think these markets are and how player focused the the NBA is as a league, is that same game parlays and parlays with player props and sorts of things like that are becoming more of the markets that the public bettor wants to bet. So a lot of the money that comes in on like spreads, totals, and stuff like that, like the majority of that action, especially the big action, is going to be from sharp bettors. And so one thing that we've observed is a lot of times that the the public side is actually the sharp side, because it's the side with the least amount of liability on it. So, like, when you see a public total, for instance, on an over in the NBA, and the number just keeps going up and up and up, it's really just because they know that if they set the line, like, a little low and the public wins some money on just betting overs or whatever, they're just gonna get all that money back and and and weigh more on these same game parlays and stuff that just they just vague the hell out of you on. So I'm a little concerned that more and more of the handle is moving towards gimmicky stuff like that, where the odds makers just have such an advantage that they don't care if they lose on the on the main markets to the public. So but I think that, again, just presents value. If that's the way they wanna move it, then that's just what we'll capitalize on and just kinda watch those trends.

Shane Mercer [00:14:04]:

Wow. Really, really interesting there. Yeah. Those those parlays, those same game parlays, you know, the house edge on those is just, just enormous there. They're absolutely raking on those. And, you know, as a person, you know, who do I I understand the appeal, though, of it. The they like you said, they're fun to bet. Right? Or they, at least, are you know, especially if you're the kind of guy who's sitting in front of the TV and you're planning to watch the game and, you know, you've got a few of your your favorite players in there, why not? Parlay the the point guards assist with the leading scores' point total and, you know, the center's rebounds or something like that.

Shane Mercer [00:14:34]:

Right? You know? I I can totally totally get that. Alright. Well, let's move on, though, back to the NFL, back to the big game, the Super Bowl, of course. Now when the game was set, I guess, just over a week ago, I went and looked right away to see what the line was, and the line opened at minus 2a half favoring the San Francisco 49ers. And so right away I knew, oh, here we go we're gonna have the Kansas City Chiefs as an underdog again in the playoffs here. It's become a trend. It's already a story line, and we're gonna have it have it one more time here for the Super Bowl. So, so, Shawn, I wanna start off with you as the pregame guy when you saw the line open at at minus 2a half, and since then, I think we've seen it shift a little bit towards the KC side.

Shane Mercer [00:15:20]:

I think I think it even got as low as minus one, in favor of the 40 niners. So so shifting towards the KC side, but now I'm seeing it back at minus 2. Minus 2 flat, I think, was the latest I saw when I checked today. Shawn, what did you think of the line? What do you think of the line movement that we've seen over the past week and a bit?

Shawn Schroeder [00:15:40]:

Well, I think, there's a lot of factors here. Right? Like, Kansas City Chiefs are like the New York Yankees, are like the Los Angeles Lakers. They've got a lot of people that are rooting for kelsey and taylor swift and mohomes And I think that you've got people that don't even know how to spell football betting on this game and betting on the Chiefs. To feel a good story. Right? I like the San Francisco side personally, but that that doesn't mean anything. I'm just looking at the data and you see 28% of the bets and roughly 31% of the money, currently right now on on approximately 300,000 tickets, which will go over a 1000000 tickets by game day. That's a very large handle. It's gonna be the largest handle that the folks have had all year.

Shawn Schroeder [00:16:30]:

John's points are all valid too. There's so many other things you could bet on. But, you know, I really see value in San Francisco, personally, on the side, and I see value on the under. But that's not that's not anything different. Right? When there's a lot of eyes on a public game, they always think there's gonna be more scoring. And these these these 2 teams could score 80 points. Right?

GosuThune [00:16:50]:

Mhmm.

Shawn Schroeder [00:16:51]:

But it's the script reads perfectly for, you know, San Fran to cover and the under to cover. We'll see what happens. I mean, we'll see what

Shane Mercer [00:17:01]:

That game total you're referencing to, when I last saw it, 47a half, is that still what you're seeing? 47a half right across the board, guys? Yeah. Okay. So, TAW, over to you then. What did you think of the opening lines here? Minus 2a half, now sitting about minus 2 and the game total 47a half. Anything that kind of struck you at first?

TAW Goodman [00:17:22]:

Yeah. I mean so I remember watching the games, and I had, you know, all the sportsbooks open as the you know, those games are finishing. And it was funny. I think it went from minus 2 and a half like, on a a I'll specifically reference a book that basically changes their line because of action, like bookmaker and Pinnacle. And I was remember kinda settling at 1, 1a half there for a minute, and, you know, it's at 2 now. And who knows? Maybe it closes back at 2a half again. But, you know, what did I think of it? I mean, I'll be honest. One of the first bets I made, I bet under 48, so I paid a little juice to to get that number.

TAW Goodman [00:18:07]:

I wanted the whole number, and I thought that that was good value at that time. Still think it's a good value. I think it went down to 47 at one time, but like you said, I think it's back at 47a half. I like that bet and made that bet pretty much right away, and,

GosuThune [00:18:26]:

that's what I I mean, who knows?

TAW Goodman [00:18:27]:

Right? Pregame betting is not the big part of my game, but, certainly, something I liked immediately and something I took a a position in.

Shane Mercer [00:18:36]:

Okay. So so far, we've got we've got Shawn and TAW both favoring the under initially and and both sort of looking at the under. John, that fits right into your line of thinking with in terms of betting against human achievement or perhaps in this case, betting in favor of defensive achievement. I don't know. That might be another way to look at it. But but, John, anything that that struck you initially? And are you kind of in line with what with what TAW and Shawn are thinking?

GosuThune [00:19:01]:

Yeah. I mean, no surprise here. Already bet the under bet it as soon as the line opened. I actually got a little bit down on the 48a half. I was I was at the I was actually at the book. It was in Vegas, so I was able to have a couple more options that are a little a little dumber open to me there. So I got a little bit of action on the 40a half. I also bet that 48.

GosuThune [00:19:25]:

Yeah. I mean, I just I think that that's a lot of points in a game that's often played very conservatively. You know? And I think also you look at the the way these both of these teams have have played the last few weeks, really leaning heavy on the run, really slow methodical drives. I think a couple weeks to prepare all these things. And then, like, the, the dead time in the Super Bowl is something I think a lot of people don't talk about. You know? Stuff to get into a rhythm when half time is almost an hour. You know? Like, it's almost like you're starting a 2nd game. So I just so I love that angle.

GosuThune [00:19:58]:

I've played the under a couple of times recently as well. It's worked out for me, so I love that. And I I agree with Shawn too on on San Francisco. You know? I don't I don't know anybody that knows anybody that knows anybody that's that's bet on San Francisco yet. So, I I think it's to me, it's kind of it's kind of funny, like, just watching that line and the refusal to to move to Kansas City the Kansas City side and then to watch it come back once you know, the books, they they open up and they don't take much action because they're trying to put out feelers. Right? They're trying to see what the market looks like. And then now as they're willing to take more and more action to seeing it go back to where it was, I I think is pretty is pretty interesting to me. So I agree.

GosuThune [00:20:37]:

I think there's value on San Francisco, but I I would much rather, I think, put put my money on the under before that.

Shane Mercer [00:14:02]:

Let's get to the other side of this then, John, that you kind of mentioned when we were talking about NBA, but, player props are such a big thing now. And I think a lot of people out there, especially, average recreational bettors out there who may be listening, have maybe already created their their same game player prop parlays, you know, and, I I anticipate a lot of people doing that whether it's recreational or even some people out there who think that they've got an edge or that, you know, they're they're seeing something perhaps that, you know, is, is flying under the radar. John, would you experiment with any of that for the Super Bowl? Is it worth it at all in your opinion, or is it the kind of thing that it is like, no. I'll just put it to the side?

GosuThune [00:21:25]:

Well, I mean, let's let's say, I've got let's say I've got 3 units or something on the on and under in the game. Like, I might I might split a quarter unit up into a bunch of little dumb prop bets that are fun for the Super Bowl. Gatorade, you know, how many planes are gonna fly over, how long in the anthem, like, over under Taylor Swift, shoot you know, sightings. Like, stuff like that, I I think, is I think is funny. You gotta I just think you gotta like, you know, just what Usher to start with Yaz's 1st song, plus 200. Like, sign me up. You know? Like, just imagine him coming out to that. Like, I think stuff like that is fun, so I'll do that.

GosuThune [00:22:04]:

And then player props, I like I like more of the long shot stuff in the Super Bowl. You know, I I I bet guys need to remember, on the national championship game for for college, I bet that at least, 3 different people would throw a pass. It didn't win, but I always think I think bets like that are like good bets, like weird quirky stuff to happen in the game. You know, I like betting long shot wide receivers to win MVP or or stuff like that. I think stuff like that is is where the value is, because a lot of weird plays are gonna get called. A lot of stuff's gonna come out of nowhere, and they're gonna run stuff to confuse the the opponent as well. So, those those are kind of where I where I look for that stuff, not just like your average, like, over under in, receptions and stuff.

Shane Mercer [00:22:50]:

Shawn, you'll make some some pre game player prop calls into the group, for, you know, a smaller percentage than than some of your other calls, but, have you got any early lean player props that you're looking at? Is player props going to be a big part of your Sunday preparation?

Shawn Schroeder [00:23:07]:

I'll look at you know I've got some models that I look at they're very volatile you know initially I liked Kittles over on receiving yards just because he does good man to man. That got fed up a little bit. I was initially seeing it, like, I think, 49a half ish. I'm not sure where it's at right now. Purdy's rushing yards actually taking me under on that, was something I liked. And again these are based on matchups and models so he can get that in one run but you know the way that I was looking at that there was there's over a 20% variance on the model and I like them but those can move so much and to john's point there it's peanuts compared to the under on the game you know I I agree with everything he said and my under wager is going to be much larger than my san tran wager my props are going to be much less than than all of that and I'll throw some beer money on a couple parlays You know, I'll be looking to see if DraftKings does something stupid with the coin flip being left open on a book or something and be willing to burn an account that I don't care about on stupid things like that. But there's always something crazy that happens to John's point that he mentioned that on the Super Bowl. You just never know, and some of these books don't adjust quick enough.

Shawn Schroeder [00:24:21]:

So

Shane Mercer [00:24:22]:

always something unexpected, always something crazy at the Super Bowl. You never know when it's gonna come. It could be on the field of play, or it could be on the stage at half time or it could come after the game's over. TAW, are there anything player prop wise, any beer money that you might put together on on some props?

TAW Goodman [00:24:40]:

Yeah. I I kind of quietly bet these player props every week, and my strategy on those is not necessarily the the actual total for the players, but rather take some of those alternate lines and parlay several for the same game parlay. So, again, kind of butter some books, but I like, Pacheco's rushing. I'll probably take, like, a Pacheco 50 plus rushing combined with, some alt under some an alt over for both Kittle and Kelsey. So not their lines, but a lower line than what they're supposed to have. Combine both of those, and something like that. That's because it I I think that that's, that's probably the way I'm gonna attack it. So something with Kittle, I'll probably have 4, but Kittle, Pacheco, and Kelsey, with Pacheco being 50 plus rushing, and I don't know what the lines are on Kittle and Hittle Kittle and Hittle, Kittle and, Kelsey, but, look at those and probably parlay those 2 and then try to find a 4th to to go in.

TAW Goodman [00:25:50]:

But, again, small action. Not a I I've got a substantial bet on that under already. That'll be my biggest bet for sure, but I'll I'll have I'll have some action on a same game parlay with those 3 and somebody else probably.

Shane Mercer [00:26:04]:

For for the record, I've never heard of a guy named Hittle ever.

TAW Goodman [00:26:08]:

Yeah. Right.

Shane Mercer [00:26:08]:

No, never, never heard of anyone named Hittle. Little, little.

Shawn Schroeder [00:26:13]:

You take a Hittle middle on those parlays there. Talk.

Shane Mercer [00:21:24]:

A a little inside, inplayLIVE joke there for for the for the community. If if you're not a part of inplayLIVE, you're way to get one, but for the folks on the on the inside, you you probably know what we're talking about there. But, okay. A bit we've talked a lot about the pregame stuff here, the lines, props, all that sort of stuff, but, you know, we are ininplayLIVE. We bet live. Most of our significant wagers are gonna be placed live during the game. TAW, is there anything that changes in terms of your live betting strategies for the Super Bowl that that, you know, might be slightly different than what you did throughout the entire season, or is it just a status quo where we're deploying the same stuff here?

TAW Goodman [00:27:00]:

I think it's largely the status quo. I don't think you wanna same. We're talking about all these pregame bets. But at the end of the day, once these games start, I forget about those pregame bets. Yeah. Right? You gotta watch the game that you're that you're watching, and things sometimes don't go the way you're expecting. Like, right now, I could see myself being in a situation where I know I like this under pregame. And if the Chiefs have the lead going into the second half, I'm probably gonna like those bets I already like more.

TAW Goodman [00:27:29]:

Right? The Chiefs had, like, the, I think the second half under in Chiefs' games this year is, like, 17 and 2 or something. So, you know, if they're in the lead, I'm gonna like that even more because I know they're gonna slow the game down. And the, I think, the, the niners are, like, really slow. I don't know their exact, but they're really slow in the second half as well. So that's something I'm already thinking about, but, you know, at the end of the day, you can't let that, lock you into anything. It's just same stuff we've been doing all year. Right? The The strategies that you've seen on the streams week in and week out, gotta look at them each and and apply it to to this as well. But knowing that we do know these teams better than we've known any teams all year, we've seen them play more games than anybody else all year, and we know a little more information about them and hopefully can, find some advantages on that.

Shane Mercer [00:28:24]:

Yeah. For sure, John. Any anything, for you when it comes to betting live or or kind of just what what Tah said there?

GosuThune [00:28:31]:

No. I think that's right. I mean, it's it's at the end of the day, I think the the game once you're playing a game, I think a lot of the pomp and circumstance of what you're doing kinda goes away, like, present from a competitor standpoint or or like a play caller standpoint that, you know, it's like at the end of the day, you're just, you're, you're back kind of in the motions of it. The only, the only caveat I think is when the team who's in the lead specifically, I think will have a very high propensity to play ultra conservatively, in these games, especially compared to what we've been seeing in the modern NFL, like this year and a little bit like, this year, especially last year a little bit, but just throwing the ball up up 7 with 4 minutes left, you know, on 1st down and like that kind of stuff. Like, you're just I just don't think you're gonna see. We haven't seen a lot of that, just first of all, in the playoffs. Playoffs have been very conservative at the end of the game unless you're Dan Campbell.

Shane Mercer [00:29:29]:

I was just gonna say.

GosuThune [00:29:30]:

But outside outside of him, it's that's pretty much it. And, you know, especially at the end of the game last year, I remember being in a Super Bowl party knowing that the the game could end and that if if there was a first down, the Chiefs would know to go down, and just telling everybody at the party, like, guys, like, lay on that under. Like, let's go. Like, it's you know, because, like, the they were so close to the end zone, the books, like, almost assumed they had to score. And so they were paying, like, plus 1.30 or something for there to be no more points, and all they needed was 1 first down. So, stuff like that. It's like the in these book a lot of these books are gonna have these lines open late. They're gonna wanna get as much action as they can the whole game, and you can really exploit, like, the ultra conservative nature, I think, sometimes.

Shane Mercer [00:30:16]:

Yeah. I'm glad you brought up that in that that moment, early in the season with the Chiefs when Mahomes went down. And, you know, of course, Twitter and social media blew up with all the conspiracy theories about all of that, and I just laughed because I remember we all took the under. We all just crapped that under and and came out winners out out of that one. What what a great moment there.

GosuThune [00:30:35]:

And not you and not to say that I haven't won money on what I do believe are conspiracies in in professional sports, but, I don't believe that that one was 1 in particular.

Shane Mercer [00:30:44]:

Okay. Thanks. Thanks for clearing the record there. Alright. If we ever have a conspiracy show, you're you're coming back on for that one. Alright. So, the other thing here, though, is that, you mentioned that we've had a chance to watch these teams and that if one of the teams are in the lead, they're very likely to play very conservatively. I would make the argument that these are 2 already of the most conservative teams that we've seen in the league.

Shane Mercer [00:31:09]:

All season long, they they played very conservative games. Regardless of the of the week or the spot they were in, it seems like it's just their style. So, Shawn, I guess that, you know, is is, you know, something that factors into your thinking on the under. Would you agree that that these teams are among the more conservative teams? And is that something that you're hoping to or expecting to capitalize on live?

Shawn Schroeder [00:31:37]:

Yeah. I think you you have to if you get a lead in these games, clock management becomes almost as big as a 50 yard pass I mean if you can hold on to the ball For an 8 or 9 minute drive and score, I mean, you're not really giving your opponent much time to do much else. And for me, I don't look at that initially. I I immediately am drawn to the betting percentages and seeing that everybody is pounding me over, then I start to get a little more granular with the game and then incorporate those things into the mix. So, it follows right into a script of why I love the under on this game. And we did see a lot of that later in the season from both these teams. Pacheco really turned the dial up, and his rushing's been great. And, you know, you get the lead.

Shawn Schroeder [00:32:21]:

You're gonna have to hold on to it. Purdy's not getting any respect. We saw the comments from, who was that made the comment? Are you from Cam Newton? Cam Newton's comment and all the all the the hate, you know. You know, you're you're maybe the 10th or 11th best guy in the team. Yeah. You know, you get so much of that that these guys are all gonna be out there trying to prove a statement. You know? You get a lead, you're gonna hold on to it. And these are 2, in my opinion, great coaches, and they know how to manage the clock.

Shawn Schroeder [00:32:51]:

Dan Campbell's not out there. It's gonna be a different game.

Shane Mercer [00:32:55]:

I I loved, Purdy's response to Cam. You know, there's there's 90 quarterbacks in the league, and Cam ain't

GosuThune [00:33:04]:

one. How old are you?

Shane Mercer [00:33:06]:

I thought that was I thought that was just perfect because, yeah, you're right. Bertie's not you know, just hasn't been able to get the the respect that maybe he maybe he deserves, maybe he doesn't. I don't know. I mean, the guy does have an all star cast around him, but you know what? The this big game will will be huge for for him and his future in the NFL. And, that that's a really kind of exciting storyline to see because I think what he's done this season has been pretty phenomenal, though, in terms of just being able to to lead a team like that to to the success and to where they're at now. It's been, it's been a lot of fun to watch. Alright. Speaking of a lot of fun, John, I think you referenced some of the the weird, silly, odd bets that come with the Super Bowl.

Shane Mercer [00:33:46]:

I wanna go through some of these, with you guys here, and I'm just gonna I'm gonna pick 1 and I'm gonna throw it at at one of you guys, and I just want you to to give me your pick on it. Okay? So so we'll just sort of go around the horn here with some of these, some of these fun ones. There there's so many of them, so I'm definitely not getting to them all, but but we'll do a few fun ones here and, you know, we'll go we'll go around the horn as they speak on them. Alright. So, the first one here is, how many times will Taylor Swift be shown the over under? Is that 4a half ta? You going under or over on 4a half for Taylor Swift? Be shown.

TAW Goodman [00:34:24]:

I'm I'm gonna go over. Over. Well, I don't yeah. Over over.

Shane Mercer [00:34:28]:

Over. Lock it in. Especially if the if the Chiefs do win, then I think we're gonna see plenty of her. It's gonna go way over that number. But, I mean to look

TAW Goodman [00:34:36]:

at the rule might need to look at the rules to see. Does the post game does it the time have to run out or not? You know? Yeah. Certainly, if they win, I like the over, but I feel like they're gonna shore at least 5 times.

Shawn Schroeder [00:34:49]:

Okay. John correlated parlay there over and well, correlated parlay.

Shane Mercer [00:34:54]:

There there you go. Yeah. That could work. Okay, somebody a lot less popular than Taylor Swift, John, how many times will Roger Goodell be shown over or under 1a half?

GosuThune [00:35:09]:

Oh, man. I'm gonna say under 1a half. I'm gonna go under. I just think most casual most casual people watching the Super Bowl on I think it's on CBS this year. They don't care about Roger Goodell. The you know, they'll show him, and they'll they'll move on. God, I I I think the only the thing that would worry me the most about that bet is if there's if there's some sort of serious injury, I think they'll show him multiple times just in that one that one time frame. So that's to me, it's kinda like you're betting.

GosuThune [00:35:41]:

Well, they're like, somebody need to go, like, could get real attention. So, but I I like the under.

Shane Mercer [00:35:48]:

Hey. That's a that's a good point there. I mean, if we get, like, you know, a blatant head shot or something like that or someone's gotta go into concussion protocol, that could very, very easily go over. But, good good point there. Hopefully, we don't see anything like that during the game, and we have a nice clean game. I think that's what most all fans would be would be hoping for and looking forward to. Alright. Over to you, Shawn, on this next one.

Shane Mercer [00:36:09]:

Will an unauthorized person enter the field? Will we get a streak or somebody else rushing out there to to do something, that they shouldn't be? Here are the odds. The yes is plus 300 or or 4 point o for those of you who like decimals. So yes, plus 300, and no is minus 500. Shawn, where are you putting your money on that?

Shawn Schroeder [00:36:29]:

I'm gonna put on yes. I mean, I think, something like that, if it's gonna happen to like, I don't know if you remember. Was it last year or the year before, the guy that actually made the huge bet is the one that went out and actually ran on the field to win the money on that bet. So I I think that stuff happens. I don't see think we all necessarily will see it on the cameras. They're really good at distracting from that. But I think somebody's gonna make an attempt to try to get on the field and do something stupid, especially once the alcohol gets flowing. That's whether or not we'll see it and whether or not the books will count it as a win because if we didn't see it, did it really happen? Right?

Shane Mercer [00:37:05]:

That's a good point. Yeah. If it doesn't make the broadcast, did it happen?

GosuThune [00:37:09]:

Right.

TAW Goodman [00:37:10]:

Shawn, is there any steam movement on that?

GosuThune [00:37:12]:

He's he's the reverse line.

Shawn Schroeder [00:37:15]:

There's yeah. Some pinnacle reverse line movement on that. Take your time. Adding. Hang on.

Shane Mercer [00:37:23]:

Okay. Moving on. Another one of the, weird bets out there is they have a lot of these, commercial ads, companies versus each other. And so the first one up here is it's kind of like whose ad will be shown 1st. So, Ta, over to you. BMW at minus 110 versus Coors Light at minus 130.

TAW Goodman [00:37:46]:

Well I'll probably just flip a coin on that one and pay the juice and go with Coors Light

Shane Mercer [00:37:53]:

Coors Light. All right, John, Booking.com versus Hellman's, and I think it's it's it's minus 110 on both sides.

GosuThune [00:38:04]:

Is it Hellman's like like the mayonnaise? The

Shane Mercer [00:38:07]:

Yeah. Yeah. Exactly.

GosuThune [00:38:10]:

Oh, man. I guess I'll go mayonnaise because people will probably be using some mayonnaise, for Super Bowl snacks, I guess. I don't know.

Shane Mercer [00:38:20]:

Mayonnaise was a headline preseason, I remember, thanks to that quarterback will will levi levis yeah will levis yeah yeah putting the mayo in his coffee that just sounds disgusting yeah I wonder I wonder if hellman's would try to you know rope them in to to being a pitch guy for them it would make sense okay schroeder drumstick versus uber eats whose commercial gets shown first

Shawn Schroeder [00:38:50]:

I go with Uber Eats

Shane Mercer [00:38:52]:

Uber Eats yeah yeah I think I'm probably with you on on that one okay I think John you might have referenced this 1 earlier in the show, but, the liquid to get poured on the winning coach at the end of the game, and we've got a whole bunch here, so, I'll read them in terms of, of from from lowest odds to highest. So so purple, liquid purple Gatorade or whatever it might be, purple juice at plus 185, red plus 260 blue plus 400 lime green or yellow plus 420 orange plus 550 clear or just plain water at plus 900 and none of the above at plus 2,000 John where are you putting your money

GosuThune [00:39:37]:

I'm assuming the purple is the favorite because of the conspiracy around the colors of the Super Bowl. I'm not sure. But I I I'm surprised red is not favored since both teams have red in their colors. So I'm gonna go with red.

Shane Mercer [00:39:51]:

Alright. Plus plus yeah. Plus 260 on the red

GosuThune [00:39:54]:

there. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:39:55]:

Yeah. Shawn, are are you in line with John there?

Shawn Schroeder [00:39:59]:

I mean, anything could happen there. Right? So I would I would gonna say, yellow to go with just because that was our team USA softball color, you know, but who knows? Who's who knows what'll happen?

Shane Mercer [00:40:12]:

TAW, where are you going?

TAW Goodman [00:40:14]:

Man, man, I really like both those bets. But hearing that the public is on both of those things, I'm just gonna go with clear or, water. I've gotta go that route. It's the way to go. Give me the plus money. Let's go.

Shane Mercer [00:40:27]:

Yeah. Yeah. Plus 900 on water. You get 10:10 to 1 odds on water. Why why not just plain old water? Water and ice. Right?

TAW Goodman [00:40:34]:

That's right.

Shane Mercer [00:40:34]:

Like, I I could definitely see that, and that those odds, why why not? Okay. A big storyline, heading into this game. Of course, we gotta bring Taylor Swift back into it, and a lot of talk of Kelsey proposing to Taylor after the Super Bowl, especially if the Chiefs win. Alright. So the yes side of that is at 12 to 1. The no side is at is at minus, 35100. John, are we taking a side here? Will Kelsey propose to Taylor?

GosuThune [00:41:02]:

I mean, that you wanna talk about steam? I I I think that line I think the no opened at minus 350. I remember seeing some some people send me some some odds for that. So, I mean, I wouldn't lay the juice at minus 35100 or whatever it is personally, but I think that's definitely the right side, assuming is first of all, they could just not win. And then second, it's, like, kinda difficult, I would think, to get down on the field, like, from the box at the like, in time to do anything. I I don't know. Seems seems difficult to me, so I would say that.

Shane Mercer [00:41:36]:

Yeah. Especially in the kind of way that that Taylor Swift would demand a proposal. I I just don't I just don't see it happening in in that kind of an environment. But here's another one uh-uh for you and Shawn I'll throw this one over to you: any player proposing is yes at plus 210 and the no side is at minus two ninety so this is any player on on any team proposing after the game what what do you think I'm

Shawn Schroeder [00:42:01]:

gonna say no I mean I I don't think it's gonna happen.

Shane Mercer [00:42:06]:

Yeah. Mine minus 290 there. So if you wanted to say no that Kelsey doesn't do it, you might as well just take no to all players and just take that minus 2.90 line, right, as opposed to the minus 35100?

GosuThune [00:42:16]:

I think you're I just think it's a bad idea. So I've seen I've been at 5 sporting events where there's been a mid a mid game proposal, not by a player, but, like, a fan or something. Twice out of the 5 times, they've said no. So I just think it seems like your chances it seems like it's just not a good idea because it's, you know, it's not the right just not the right atmosphere, clearly. So

Shane Mercer [00:26:59]:

Yeah. Yeah. And for the record, everybody out there who's listening, like, you know, just just know that none of these bets are probably good ideas, at least from a pro perspective. This is all just for fun and games here. None of these are are being suggested that that we take any of these. But also speaking of of not good ideas, we in the inplayLIVE community know that tailing Drake is never a good idea. And one of the lines coming out here is, who will Drake support? KC at minus 170 or San Fran at plus one thirty. Where where do you guys lean?

Shane Mercer [00:26:59]:

TAW do you have a lean on this one? Who's Drake gonna go with?

TAW Goodman [00:43:17]:

I think I mean, I would never lay the juice on minus 170, but I expect Drake to go with the Chiefs.

Shane Mercer [00:43:24]:

Yeah. Yeah. I think you're right there. Any any disagreement, John or Shawn?

Shawn Schroeder [00:43:29]:

Not for it for it for his brand. I mean, Kelsey Swift. Yeah. Everybody's gonna go that route, I think. I mean, it's just like everything we're seeing. Every 12 year old girl is probably betting on the Chiefs because of Taylor Swift. You know, it everybody. Everyone's over there.

Shane Mercer [00:43:47]:

So Everyone. Oh, yeah. Yeah. You're right. Everyone's over there. All the superstars, all the famous people, they're all going to that side. And, hey. Maybe that just means opportunity for us.

Shane Mercer [00:43:57]:

Alright. With that being said, just as we wrap it up here, guys, gonna go around the horn one more time, but this is, this is your best bet for the Super Bowl or early lean, and I know we've already brought up the under. You're all on the under, so I'm removing that from the equation. You can't say the under. Alright? That well, that's out, but your best bet leading into the Super Bowl or perhaps something you're eyeing live John go ahead what's what's your best bet ahead of the game?

GosuThune [00:44:25]:

Best bet? You know, I guess I'll I guess I'll go ahead and take it since I have to go first. I'll take San Francisco minus 2. I think that's just I think it's the right side. Sometimes when I when it comes to a side, I just think about what's the easiest thing to do. And the easiest thing to do is definitely not lay points with Brock in the Super Bowl against Patrick Holmes. There's nothing easy about that, so I will take the hard path and, take San Francisco minus 2.

Shane Mercer [00:44:58]:

Oh, I love it. Take it. I like that explanation too. Taking the hard path. Right? It's it's the hard path that leads to success, not the easy one. Shawn, where are you going?

Shawn Schroeder [00:45:07]:

That's definitely where I was going to go. So what I would probably look to do is, you know, I I really like right after a team scores, you get an extra point or 2 usually for about 30 seconds to a minute on the algorithm. So that's something that if Casey scores, I'm probably just gonna take San Francisco line and try to get the 3710 key numbers. I will ladder that throughout the entire game, probably on both sides, to be honest, off a key number depending on my exposure and depending on that number.

Shane Mercer [00:45:37]:

Wow. Love it. Over to you. Best bet, lean, something you're looking for alive?

TAW Goodman [00:45:43]:

Yeah. I mean, I've kinda mentioned a few bets I already like today. That same game parlay that I was talking about earlier is pretty high on the list for me as far as not the thing I'm not betting besides the under, and the other one, specifically the second half under, is something I'm looking at, as probably because I I think just the way these 2 teams play the game, I could see the 1st Q2 being a little higher scoring, but I expect the second half to really slow, like, both teams to either of them being in the lead to slow the game down, but also, to that point, you know, looking at potentially, the highest scoring quarter. If you want another pregame bet, the the Q2 could potentially be a higher scoring as the highest scoring. I think you can get that at, like, plus I forget, but it's, like, plus 170 or something. But I'm not I probably won't bet that, but I was looking at it, and that's how I expect the game to go, but really live looking at that second half under specifically.

Shane Mercer [00:43:13]:

Great great insight from all 3 of you. I wanna thank all of the 3 of you for coming on the show and kind of sharing your your thoughts with us. It's also really interesting to hear when when you all kind of are arriving at similar conclusions ahead of the game that it's very different than what the public is doing. I mean, I think that's just, critical valuable information for our audience. So so, please, everybody, sort of listen to that, at least absorb it, you know, take it into account as you kind of make your your pregame decisions, and take a lot of their advice as you as you look at the game live, and we encourage you to to bet live and if you want to see what inplayLIVE is all about on the inside again that promo code for you is 'BEHINDTHELINES' all caps, but another great tool that we have available for for everybody that's a member, and, we offer a, a discount, if you are a part of inplayLIVE. So for everybody in the community, if you're interested, when you're watching the game and you're looking at lines and you're trying to shop lines, we've got OddsJAM giving us the a quick and easy look, a nice way to kind of just see what all the books are offering all at once. And it's a nice quick and easy way to kind of go like, alright, well, I I like, I I wanna jump on the 40 niners now, because the Chiefs just scored, and I know I can get the line kind of what what Shawn's alluding to. I can get the line up plus 3 now on on the San Fran side.

Shane Mercer [00:47:59]:

But where am I getting the best odds to get that plus 3? Odds Jam lays it all out for you nice and nice and easy, and it makes it, makes it that much more efficient for you to get to the line you want in the amount of time, you know, that that you might require, which oftentimes is only, you know, 30 seconds maybe before the line changes again. So very crucial to get to the line in time, and odds jam helps you do that. Alright. John Wilson, Shawn Schroeder, Todd Goodman, guys, just wanna say thank you to all 3 of you again for coming on the show, but also thank you to all 3 of you for everything you did all season long in terms of pumping out the pregame calls, making the calls live, grinding it in day in, day out every Sunday for however many weeks, 17 weeks plus the playoffs, and now on Super Bowl Day. So thank you for the hard work that all 3 of you put in. I appreciate it, and I know many, many members of the community appreciate it. And, hopefully, all of our audience appreciates you guys coming on and and sharing that valuable information. Alright.

Shane Mercer [00:49:01]:

Till next week and including the Super Bowl, beat those books, guys.

GosuThune [00:47:58]:

Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download, and subscribe. We are

Shane Mercer [00:49:12]:

on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below. And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code 'BEHINDTHELINES'.