Episode 51

Shane Mercer [00:00:00]:

I think that personalization stuff, you know, is pretty cool. Also, shout out to, California, schools, in the NCAA. We're big fans of the Cali teams, over here at inplayLIVE for a whole bunch of reasons. Hello, and welcome to another episode of behind the lines. The only sports betting podcast purifying the sports betting industry. On today's show, we've got the founder of Rithmm, an analytics models modeling tool. We'll get into the future of predictive sports technology. A really, really cool conversation there.

Shane Mercer [00:00:42]:

We have this huge report out on the state of global sports betting and how the market is growing and getting limited without even signing up. Well, funny story here. I'm your host, Shane Mercer. That guy over there, Andrew Pace, the founder of inplayLIVE, the greatest sports betting community on planet Earth. We'll have that story from some of those community members in just a moment. But first, I gotta remind everyone to like, download, subscribe, follow us on all the socials at inflay live. And if you wanna see what inplayLIVE is all about, on the inside, we've got that promo code for you 'BEHINDTHELINES', all caps. Alright, Pace.

Shane Mercer [00:01:17]:

Why don't we start off with that? We had at least 1 of our members, but, I think it was several community members who got limited on a sportsbook without even signing up. Alright. That's sportsbook. I know. Imagine this. Right? You haven't even signed up for the book. You don't have an account, and they're already sending out this email. We are writing to let you know that the betting limits on your Fanatic Sportsbook account, an account which doesn't exist, have been reduced, and you have been removed from certain promotions.

Shane Mercer [00:01:50]:

These actions were taken by the risk and trading team as part of our ongoing review of customer accounts. Alright. Ace, you gotta explain this to me. How are these guys getting limited? They don't have accounts, And yet somehow, this is fanatics, by the way. Fanatics sportsbook is sending these emails out to them saying, hey. Guess what? You're limited. Your account's been limited. You may not have an account.

Shane Mercer [00:02:11]:

It doesn't matter. Don't sign up. We don't want your business. Don't come here.

Andrew Pace [00:02:16]:

Yeah. So Fanatics purchase points bet. And Right. That's actually a story. I don't think we we covered on this podcast. Because I feel like when anything that involves points, bet you just almost kind of laugh like immediately, you know, you're just like, really? Great book. Right? Like love points bet for the guys that that got to use it because it was it was easy money, well, it lasted for the people that had it. But once Fanatics acquired PointsBet, they just went through their database of players that had been limited on PointsBet and emailed them all saying they'd be limited on their Fanatics account when they hadn't even made one.

Andrew Pace [00:02:53]:

And just watching, like, we're on a livestream inside of our community when this happened. And then someone was like, I've been limited on Fanatics and never made an account, and then people started laughing, obviously. But then, one after the other, people started saying the same the same thing. So wherever fanatics is going to operate, I don't know if that's New Jersey or or wherever it is. Yeah. All all of our basically, all of our members got got limited without making an account. So, it just it you know, it it's just it's all you can do is laugh. It's funny.

Shane Mercer [00:03:21]:

Yeah. Exactly. Right? And then, I guess, you know, just something to be aware of as we sort of cover some of these these mergers, these takeovers, these acquisitions. These are things that can happen. So if you've been limited on on the sportsbook somewhere else and you find out that's, you know, another company is buying it, hey. Just be prepared that that you might not get those limits. You might not even get an opportunity to open a new account.

Andrew Pace [00:03:41]:

Yeah. Absolutely.

Shane Mercer [00:03:43]:

Yeah. Alright. Well, again, on that topic of of things moving and shaking in the world of the sports betting industry, a massive report, has just come out this week. And so this is from, research and markets .com. It's called, the global online sports betting market report 2024. And so this is a massive report, 280 pages. I don't expect all of you out there listening and watching to go and read this report, but just something to be aware of. And if you are interested in kind of diving into the into the macroeconomics of this industry that we all partake in, you know, then then it's out there for you and you can read a little bit of it, some of it, all of it, none of it, all up to you.

Shane Mercer [00:04:26]:

But I wanna sort of highlight some key points, from it. And, as part of that, the numbers are just sort of enormous. And so I kind of wanna just, show a little bit of the, the graph that they have, the little sort of image that here. So check this out. The global online sports betting market market forecast to grow. Alright? So they are predicting the forecast for this year, 2024, is that the global market will be worth $34,950,000,000. K? Huge number for this year, but that number in the next 5 years by 2029 expected to grow to 70,630,000,000 dollars. It's going to double over the next 5 years.

Shane Mercer [00:05:16]:

Pretty pretty amazing stuff there in terms of just the sheer size and volume of this of this sports betting, specifically online sports betting market around the world. So some of what's fueling that, some of the things that, you know, may not come as a surprise here, but more people have access high speed Internet, more mobile betting services, and, of course, people just love sports. Right? Nothing new there. And that's actually referenced in in the sort of summary of of this report is how much people love sports. I mean, of course, we do. We all do. Right? It's something that brings us all together. But there's a couple of other things that I wanted to highlight, from this report that I think are kind of areas of of maybe perhaps you know? They're both positive and negative or, you know, kind of double edged sword here.

Shane Mercer [00:06:06]:

So here's one of them. Changing societal attitudes towards online gambling contributes to a broader acceptance of sports betting as a form of entertainment. As stigma decreases, more individuals are likely to participate in online sports betting. So the stigma's going away, and, of course, we're seeing that, as we sort of see different jurisdictions, you know, regulate or create regulated markets and and more of a move towards legalization in a lot of jurisdictions here in North America. Then another side of this, on the flexibility side, they say they often include features such as live streaming, live in play betting, and push notifications for real time updates. These enhancements contribute to a more engaging and enjoyable user experience. Mobile apps can leverage new technologies such as augmented reality and virtual reality to enhance the immersive nature of sports betting. These technologies can provide users with unique and interactive experiences contributing to the overall appeal of mobile sports betting.

Shane Mercer [00:07:09]:

Alright. So I'm gonna share some thoughts quickly, PACE, and then, you know, I'll get your take on all of this. But right off the bat, the idea of decreasing the stigma around sports betting, I think, on the surface, is absolutely great. You know, especially when, you know, we're engaged in this on a regular basis and, you know, guys like you and I and many members of the community are having conversations with our with our friends and loved ones about what it is that we're doing when we're when we're focused on on sports and sports betting and kind of sort of locked in, so to speak. But I guess, you know, I'm concerned about downplaying the potentially harmful effects of sports betting. And and, you know, that's something that that, you know, I think the books want, obviously. But I think it's something that's kind of easy to sort of brush under the rug because we do know that it can be very harmful, especially when not treated with, a certain level of of respect and caution. I think that kind of needs to go go with it.

Shane Mercer [00:01:17]:

And on the technology side of things, you know, while I think it's great to be able to bet anywhere, anytime in a way that fits into sort of any kind of flexible lifestyle, to me, that kind of encourages also reckless sports betting, especially for problem gamblers. And I'm also concerned about the immersive technologies like Apple Vision Pro, which I know some of our members are already experiment experimenting with a little bit and kinda getting familiar with. But I'm worried about that potentially making something like sports betting even more isolating, which I think could be a problem for people that aren't part of a community like inplayLIVE. You know, you slap on those goggles, and now you're, you know, sort of locked into this virtual environment where you're betting on sports all by yourself. I think I think that could lead to some some problems for some people. So, anyway, what what are your what are your thoughts, though, when when we kinda talk about these trends?

Andrew Pace [00:08:58]:

Yeah. I mean, a lot of it's really interesting. I think the first thing is the, the the growth that you're referencing. So 2024, expecting 35,000,000,000, and then doubling that by 2029, that's ambitious. I think a lot of people that are, betting in general are are doing it already kinda thing. I know that with the younger generations, so people that are kinda just entering or or recently entered the, you know, the legalization sort of age, something that they they get excited for, and, I think that we weren't in that same time frame necessarily, Shane. I know we've been betting for a while, but, you know, when you think about turning 19 or in Canada or 21 in the states and you have your first, like, legal beverage, it's it's kind of a big moment, and I think that, you know, there's definitely you know, making your 1st legal sports bet is is becoming a thing for sure. 60 minutes did a documentary on, what was going on in the industry.

Andrew Pace [00:09:53]:

I think they missed the mark in a big way. One of the things that they they brought up, you know, kind of countlessly was the vast amount of markets that sportsbooks have and how that's such a bad thing. And they didn't really have a pro in there that understands the industry to explain what the upside could be for some of those things. But they more so described it in a way of if you are a problem gambler going from kinda what you touched on, Shane, like, this love of sports where you go, who doesn't love sports? It brings us together. Those are things that you just said. So taking that approach, then entering the betting arena, and then eventually, you know, betting on sports that you don't even you're not even watching or know any of the players or what's going on because now you're just gambling. And, basically, documenting someone's journey of doing exactly that. And it's crazy.

Andrew Pace [00:10:45]:

So the comments under, like, the shortened real versions of these on social media are like, it's a guy who needs to stop gambling and and has gone to rehab, and he he's interviewed in in the documentary. And the the comments are unbelievable below. It isn't like, hey, man. Good job stepping away. Everyone's like, you're 1 parlay away from getting it all back. Stopping is quitting, like, all that kind of stuff. And that is that younger generation's culture right now associated with, betting as a whole. So the whole, basically, approach to it is is you keep going and you keep pushing until you get that big win.

Andrew Pace [00:11:21]:

That that's kinda the the approach. And if I'm the sportsbooks and I'm seeing, you know, that information and then par parlaying that with some of the points that you just made, you know, you watch the 60 minute documentary, and you're thinking they're trying to create awareness and then look at what this generation's doing for us. They're advertising and pushing this guy to get back into the game. Yeah. It's it's it's not great. From the standpoint of mobile devices, so if you if you think about that comment in general, like, how long have we had these things for now? Like, 2008, 2009? They're more capable smartphone. Yeah. Right? So, like, they're more capable now than they were before, but at the end of the day, like, I could easily load up a website on my phone or an app on my phone, you know, 10, 15 years ago.

Andrew Pace [00:12:06]:

So, new mobile devices making it easier to sports bet, I don't really think that's a a a thing. With things like, the VisionPRO or or any, what do you call them? Headset?

Shane Mercer [00:12:21]:

Yeah. VR, augmented reality. Yeah. Yeah. Sure. Sure.

Andrew Pace [00:12:24]:

Any any sort of goggles or whatever. They they like, I I so I got, I got the Quest when it came out, and I remember I did, like, this National Geographic, video game thing, and it was such a cool experience. Like, it was such a cool experience. Like, I really enjoyed it. And then I was, like, this is ridiculous because I'm the kind of person that I wanna enjoy that with someone else. And if you think about mobile devices from that standpoint where you go, okay. Think of a Super Bowl party. You got all your friends coming into the room, and and people are making bets amidst each other and filling out prop sheets.

Andrew Pace [00:12:59]:

And, yes, maybe there's some online betting happening as well, but it's a party with food and snacks and a social atmosphere. And, of course, the Super Bowl does a great job of drawing in fans that aren't necessarily even watching the game because they're there for the halftime show or or whatever the case may be, that's a very social fun sporting experience. Right? And then if you go, okay. Now we're all in our virtual headsets, it it is extremely isolating. And, that's that that speaks against a lot of the points that you're talking about of what makes the sporting world a positive one. Right? So I think as a general statement, the industry growing, makes total sense to me. There's certain states that aren't legalized yet. But, you know, we're we're we are getting notices of of acquisitions and certain books shutting down and starting to see the markets, you know, regulate itself to an extent.

Andrew Pace [00:13:53]:

I'm not referencing the things that, you know, we would like to see from the market, but, you know, the big players emerging and some of them some of them falling off and things just kinda settling down to a certain extent, you you're going to have to hit a point with a lot of these people where where they'll they'll either hit rock bottom, or they'll realize, like, I have to stop losing money, and and they'll have to make a change in their life. So, you know, this this culture that exists, like, keep pushing for the next big parlay, all that kind of stuff. I I just don't know how long that's gonna that's gonna hang around. I I really don't.

Shane Mercer [00:08:57]:

Yeah. Yeah. And, I mean, it's it's you know, it can be very destructive for for some people. Now the other side of this, though, as we see this growth, you know, you know, it's it's pretty wild to think that a that a whole, you know, industry could double in, you know, in in in 5 years. But I I guess the other side of this, though Pace, is that I feel very, grateful and optimistic for the future when I think about what I've learned, being a part of the community at inplayLIVE over the course of of the last, you know, 18 plus months or so since since I first joined, and we've been doing this podcast now for just over a year. We just celebrated 50 episodes last week, by the way, which we didn't even make a big deal about. Maybe we should have, but, you know, we're we're here we yeah. Right? Here we are rolling along.

Shane Mercer [00:15:17]:

But, now I feel so equipped with the tools and knowledge that I need to go and, you know, carve out my slice of that pie. You know? And as that pie keeps growing, I feel like I've got what I need to keep on chipping away and carving away and just, you know, grabbing my little portion of that, as it as it continues to grow. So, you know, I'm I'm and and whether that that's as a sports bettor or perhaps somebody who's who's, you know, just operating in the space as a whole. You know? I just keep learning and growing and sort of accumulating, though, though, that knowledge and those tools to to succeed in the space, which I think is highly valuable for for me and and for anyone else.

Andrew Pace [00:15:58]:

That was I I sorry. I was just gonna cut you off. I just zoomed in on that graphic that you put up on the screen, and there's, like, a really tiny sliver at the bottom that says Shane. So that's awesome. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:16:10]:

You've got a much bigger sliver too there. I think the piece of sliver is like that compared to mine, which is probably, like, even that. But

Andrew Pace [00:15:16]:

You know what, though, Shane? On in all seriousness, though, you bring up some good points. Right? And I think that one of the things at inplayLIVE that is extremely positive, and this this is speaking to some former members, actually, because I know that there are there are a couple guys at least, that essentially what they have done is come into our community, had a certain level of success, and then almost graduated. And I don't mean that in a way where, like, they're bigger than us necessarily, but I'll give you one example, like a guy who made $500,000 and then he took a 100,000 of that and invested it in into pregame modeling and basically, reduced his time commitment and has now, like, a 1 1 to 2% edge, so less than what we were doing, but is able to deploy, you know, large bet sizes, and he'll he'll attest to inplayLIVE as the reason why he got there. So, then the flip side is is current members that are are in well into the 7 figures that, you know, are are working with us in in some capacity, whether it's just getting some information about what's going on in the industry here and there, or or someone that's completely hands on that's, you know, following us day to day and all that kind of stuff. The whole idea is exactly what you just said. It's to help you make more informed, responsible decisions. It's to equip you with the tools to succeed over the long term. And that isn't always something that's easy, and it's something that no one should ever take for granted.

Andrew Pace [00:17:40]:

It takes hard work. It takes discipline. It takes continuously evolving with what's going on in the world of sports and, obviously, the landscape of betting as a whole. And, once you look at it with all those angles, you know, it really helps you manage a tough run because sometimes when you hear about a betting group like this, you can think that it's just all sunshine and rainbows. Right? So it equips you to handle a challenging run and and recognize what the upsides of some of those difficult times are so that you can, have a have a piece of that that that little Shane sliver, in in that $70,000,000,000, profit model there. So, yeah. That that that's really the whole idea.

Shane Mercer [00:18:23]:

Yeah. Exactly. And and, you know, with that growth in in the industry comes a lot of other players out there too that are, looking to provide tools or educational resources or, you know, sort of try to, change the game a little bit. We've had, the founder of an exchange on the show, and I think we'll be talking a little bit more about exchanges in the next few weeks as well. But we're sort of seeing some of these other types of players enter the space that are focused on, providing sports bettors with a more level playing field, helping them to make more informed decisions. And so we're sort of seeing, I think, that evolution, in in this in the landscape as well in terms of people out there genuinely trying to help people succeed in the space and also band or create a more level playing field. So, with that growth, it is is also coming that positive side of things, which I think is fantastic. And one of those people also joining us for an interesting conversation about what they're doing with technology and artificial intelligence, that is Brian Beachkofski from Rithmm.

Shane Mercer [00:19:32]:

Pace, you and I had a chance to talk to him. Pretty interesting conversation. And so why don't we play that now for all of you out there at the audience? Here is Brian Beachkofski. Brian Beachkofski, chief technology officer at Rithmm. Welcome to the show. Glad to have you. How are you?

Brian Beachkofski [00:19:52]:

I'm doing great. Thanks for having me. This should be fun.

Shane Mercer [00:19:55]:

Real really excited to have you here. Give us a sense of of what is Rithmm? How did it start? You know, I think you're one of the founders. Give us the origin story behind behind this company.

Brian Beachkofski [00:20:06]:

Yeah. For sure. So, where where Rithmm started from is I actually met, with my cofounder at a mutual friend's birthday party. And, and she was saying how, as she moved on from coaching and wanted to stay involved in in in, basketball, was moving into some sports betting and and said, how do we how do we get this the modeling function more available? Because it's only for sharps and people have the time to sit around and make their own quantitative models, do they have that available? My background is a quantitative modeling guy. So I said, I think, I think we can work on this together. Did some work on our on our own nights and weekends, put together a a first version that, showed that, the modeling was working in the higher. We said you had a win probability, the more often you win. The whole concept, though, is to bring that idea of of sports modeling and data analysis to people who it it's been, it's been too complicated.

Brian Beachkofski [00:21:06]:

They don't have the time or the technical background to do it. So what Rithmm does is it offers users the ability to make a personalized model, very easily. Or if they don't want to personalize it, it can say, make a make a model for me, and it goes through and our AI will will make a a a model for you. And then as soon as you do that, it gives you what what the model says against every open line that is, available and tells you what side and what, what your model's deviation from market lines are.

Shane Mercer [00:21:37]:

Okay. So let me get my head around this idea of make a model for me. So I we ask the technology, which is, I guess heavily founded in in artificial intelligence, and and I say, hey, I want a model for, hockey. And it goes ahead and and creates a model, but what are the parameters of the model? How does that work?

Brian Beachkofski [00:22:00]:

Okay. Cool. So, what we do is start off by saying, yeah, what sport do you wanna build your model for? And we have a house model that is built. And what you're saying when you build it in particular, is is what are the parts of the game that you wanna influence? So we break it down to 5 factors, and we have lots of stats inside each one of those factors. But let's take, for example, for college basketball, we have offense. Offense are a bunch of stats that are are tied to your ability to, maintain possession. So it's offensive rebounding. It's it's, assists.

Brian Beachkofski [00:22:35]:

It's, things like that that come together. So when you say that's more important, what we're doing is we train your particular model where games where that was the deciding factor of how the model predicted the winner, were most important. So when you you can personalize your model to do that. And let me give you an example of why you would want to do that. So for me, the way I use it, I have some that are, like, for college basketball, again, really high tempo, high shooting kind of models, and we have others that I have another one that's more defense and control. So then I look and I say, okay. For this game, do I think it's going to be more determined by by who can play the more controlled game, or is it gonna be wide open? And I'll go with that model. So that's idea is is you can make these models that reflect different game states or different hypotheses, and then you can see how those, how those different predictions align based on what you know about the qualitative nature of the game.

Brian Beachkofski [00:23:34]:

One other thing that people do is take those different models, and when they both, when they both point in the same direction or we'd let users have up to 3 individual models. If those all point in the same direction, they they say, well, this means even if it plays out differently, it's a robust for it's a robust prediction to be on that side. So people use it a lot of different ways, whether it's, you know, if it plays out this way or that way or or or if the different models all agree, that's where I have the most confidence. But that's the idea of having a personalization, is to be able to have these different predictions and to bring your own instincts about what matters most into your predictive model.

Shane Mercer [00:17:39]:

Really, really interesting there. You know, our audience made up of of, you know, all different types of bettors, some recreational, some long time professionals, and a whole lot of people somewhere in between there. But, you know, at inplayLIVE, we mainly focus on live betting. So so, you know, once the game has already started and and when I was looking at your site, it seems like it is sort of heavily focused on on the pregame side. Do you do anything on the live side? Could we create live models or or models that would be applied, you know, to to a live game?

Brian Beachkofski [00:24:43]:

Yeah. So we currently don't do, live live model predictions, because of, the the limitations in data. So when we make a model, we're taking 3 years, maybe even more for some sports, of data, of how the pregame stats were compared to the outcome of that particular game. And that's just more accessible for us to get into a a true in game model. What we would need to do is is have more of what those in in in play game states would be as well as the live odds and to use that same process to combine them. So our 1st iteration was just pregame odds, but but would love to get into, into some live betting there as well. And I've actually started those conversations with some data providers that have historical in game lines that we could, we could combine with our play by play data to be able to pull that back together. So that's definitely where we wanna get to.

Shane Mercer [00:25:36]:

That I think that would be pretty cool. I mean, to see sort of see something, you know, live modeling. I I don't I don't know anyone else out there that that's doing that. But I do know that there are a lot of other companies out there that are sort of, you know, using artificial intelligence to, you know, do these kinds of sort of, predictions and and probability and and sort of provide that kind of analysis based on, you know, mounds and mounds and mounds of data. I guess, how do you use artificial intelligence differently than than sort of the rest of the field, so to speak?

Brian Beachkofski [00:26:07]:

Yeah. Yeah. That's a good question. One one of the things that we've seen out there in this space is, a lot of times, the the way people are using, AI right now is for pattern matching and trying to build, models around historical sequences or historical patterns and how that comes together. Or or the the big the big difference we have from the way those are working is not looking at, like, arbitrage opportunities, bad bad lines, but what we're doing is saying you can originate yourself. So this is one that, a lot of our users like to to do too because they have the model. They will make a prediction as soon as the stats are updated and there's an available line is they can hit the overnight, so they can hit the the morning odds that haven't been as sharp, or haven't gone through the process to become more sharp and can can have an opinion early on. The other thing that we've noticed a lot is, I like telling the story of 1 night I realized I was I was deep into our product because, it was, like, midnight here on the East Coast, and I'm watching a Cal State Northridge UC Irvine game.

Brian Beachkofski [00:27:16]:

Right? Like, I would never have an opinion on those kinds of games, but the winning on those pay as much as as as the Super Bowl pays. Right? So so being able to have an opinion that you can you can start with and then go and do some qualitative research and get there, it opens up the attack surface you can have against, against the books as well. So I think that's kinda where we differentiate is being able to do that personalization that most people don't. They hit the pattern matching. They hit, like, how do we aggregate large amounts of that information, public money kind of stuff come together. But that personalization side, in being able to originate is is a is a big difference we have.

Shane Mercer [00:27:54]:

I think that personalization stuff, you know, is pretty cool. Also, shout out to, California, schools, in the NCAA. We're big fans of the Cali teams, over here at inplayLIVE for for a whole bunch of reasons. But, but, yeah, shout shout out to UC Davis and Cal Poly and and the rest of those guys out there. Pace, do you think you could see yourself? You know, you don't do a lot of pregame. And whenever I ask you about pregame stuff, you're always like, dude, you know I got live. You know? But do do you see yourself ever perhaps maybe using modeling in any kind of pregame way?

Andrew Pace [00:28:25]:

Sure. I mean, what does Justin Bieber teach us? Right? Never say never. Yeah. I I think more what the intrigue for me is is is and, I mean, it's the whole obviously, the whole the whole world we live in is a cat and mouse game of of who's making the next move against the books and and what are we doing to do it, and then, of course, their reactions and and what they're doing to to counter that back. Right? And I just think the role of AI, in general is is a massive one in this industry. And, the closer that we connect as a community to as much, data and information in that space that can continue to benefit us long term, the bettor. So, do I see myself using, AI models to bet pregame? Potentially within the community, yes. Myself, personally, I I I like to to just watch live from a a non bias standpoint.

Andrew Pace [00:29:22]:

I find that, you know, if you are making a big pregame bet, you do tend to, you know, have that in the back of your mind as as you're looking at live lines. And and I know that one of the hardest things to do as a sports bettor, and I think one of the single greatest traps that recreational bettors face is getting away from that bias. And and, you know, I've seen firsthand can be an NFL Sunday, you know, where you got a bunch of friends in the room where, you know, there's no way the Colts are losing today kinda thing. And, you know, before you know it, you find yourself betting plus 10a half, plus 20a half, plus 30a half, and the game is just a total runaway game, and, you couldn't get away from that bias. So, yeah, the AI conversation's really exciting. It's one that I think, you know, we're we're gonna continue to be a part of on this podcast and in the community. And, from a pregame betting standpoint, all I really care about is is are you getting an edge, and are you are you, making money long term? And and if that's the answer, then then there's an amazing spot for all of this in the industry as a whole. It's what is it doing? Is it helping sports bettors, or is it making them worse sports bettors? I think it's probably making having people make more informed responsible decisions that are data backed, that are model backed.

Andrew Pace [00:30:35]:

And, also, what's really cool about this particular case that you brought up there, Brian, that I I find kind of intriguing is I I I like that it is a user based experience where the user is the one that is building out what it is that is or is not working for them, and then and then tweaking that over time. That process of, involving, the client, the customer, and them owning the models that they've built, and them being, you know, the ultimate decision maker in that is is really cool. And it's special because then it isn't, you know, some tipster just throwing out some trash, that that whether they're good or not, ultimately with someone else giving giving the user that advice as opposed to the user being the person that, put that time, energy, and effort in to hopefully become more successful.

Brian Beachkofski [00:31:28]:

Yeah. That's a great point. Like, one of the things I love saying is we are a tool, not a tout. It is, it is 1 piece of information that you need to bring in, but also combine that with the qualitative stuff. I've used the pregame for live betting where if I I look and I see a game, but, like, variance just happens to be going the other way. Like, people are mission missing shots they should have, but they're getting those open looks, being able to combine that together with the data that say, hey. This is probably gonna change directions. But that being able to combine the quantitative analytical basis for the decision with the with the rest of the information that's out there is is critically important.

Brian Beachkofski [00:32:09]:

The other thing that you touched on that I love, and we've been very intentional about building in, is to say, we want people to track bets within within the app. Right? Like, everyone should be tracking their bets and their performance. We think it's extra important because as you go through with your models, you'll say, hey. This one is actually not very good at totals, but it it's it's crushing it on spreads and sides. Right? Like so being able to be disciplined, about the tracking will show you whether or not it's working for you. And if it's not working for you, try something new. Right? Like like, that's exactly what you need to to be doing. So, yeah, the more the more we can incorporate those best practices to just be easy for the user so they know where it's go where it's going and what's working for them, we're we're just always pushing forward on that.

Andrew Pace [00:32:56]:

Well, the the thing is about a lot of the points that you just made, like, I could kinda tell you firsthand, like, you know, a lot of those sort of things that you touched on are things that we'll harp on in our community, but what you quickly realize is that you aren't speaking to the betting industry. You're just not. You're speaking to, you know, maybe 5% of the industry, but I think probably closer to 1%, and you're speaking to a really unique person. And sometimes the person that you're speaking to might not actually be from the betting industry at all. They might be someone that's actually more of an investing background or or trading background. And that's where the understanding of this kind of stuff, you know, like, asking someone to track their wagers, it just seems so, like, elementary to say to someone, you know, from a from the trading side of things. Whereas in the betting space, you know, we don't have those tools readily given to us by the sportsbooks where you're like, hey. I'm gonna check my, my bet 365, betting history, and they're gonna show me all the trends of my wagers and and how I've done over the course of time.

Andrew Pace [00:33:59]:

Like, you know, you're just you're never gonna get that. So what does that mean? It means that we need to do it ourselves or we need to use a third party, but it's still gonna require that extra effort, which, again, I think that almost eliminates 95% of the betting industry as a whole. And, yeah, when it comes to, like, responsible gambling and the tools that we have, they're not offering us AI tools to help beat them. Right? So, you know, it's it's it's it's a it's an industry where you really have to take ownership of your success regardless if it's a great tipster you're following or, you know, you building your own predictive models using AI, through a through a third party service. Like, you have to own the solution. You have to be someone that that that puts in that work separately in in order to succeed. So, yeah, it sounds like you guys are doing a lot of things to help people do that, which is is great to hear.

Brian Beachkofski [00:34:58]:

Definitely what we're trying to get to. Yeah. That's exactly right.

Shane Mercer [00:35:02]:

I I wanna I wanna ask though because okay. So big shout out to tracking. I'm a huge proponent of tracking. Pace has heard me talk about, you know, how much I enjoy tracking, and I have an also almost like an OCD type of of compulsion now to track, which I think is very healthy, given that, you know, if you're if you're somebody who struggles with with mental health issues and that kind of thing and and, you know, then maybe maybe, you know, there there's some issues around that. I'm not. And and I just but I do have this compulsion now to track, and I very much return to my tracker on a regular basis to analyze it to sort of figure out what I'm gonna do going forward. But when I hear, you know, you talk about sort of, hey. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:30:34]:

You can just go ahead and build your own predictive, you know, AI model, you know, based you know, through us. It sounds like very daunting, you know, for for an average recreational bettor. It sounds like this kind of thing like, woah, do I have the qualifications for this? You know? I'm not a math whiz. I I don't know that much about, you know, artificial intelligence or technology, you know, maybe for that matter if I'm if I'm somebody like that. You know, is it as daunting as it sounds? Do I need to have a a background in, you know, probabilities and data analysis?

Brian Beachkofski [00:36:09]:

That's a great question and one of our big learnings. We thought the universe of people who would who would be more interested on the going directly into making the models and and and and doing the advanced stuff was gonna be larger than it when it was. So about, a month and a half ago now, we made a big pivot to to create a more, easy on ramp for folks that that we're hitting that that first wall of trying to make a model and not knowing exactly where to go. We're seeing back test results and not knowing is this good or bad or what does that look like. So now if if you're a new user with none of that background, you can come in and just hit with one click, make the model for me, and it will make the model. It'll show you the back test results. It'll it'll allow you to do some of the the tracking and all that that you need to, but but keep it very, very simple. And then then we have other tiers where you can go up and be a core user where you get a little bit more, ability to make your own model if you want to and and choose those factors that are more important.

Brian Beachkofski [00:37:13]:

And then we have a premium level, and we have people who are deep into the numbers at the premium level, where we we let them go through their, download all their trackpad data, synchronize it if they're doing it somewhere else, being able to split that out and, like, look and say, okay. When I'm this far off market, I have a win rate. If I'm further off market, where things go, and and actually build their own factors. So they can pick individual stats and make their own model essentially from scratch within there. Ultimately, I'd love it to get to a a no code model building approach where you can pick everything.

Shane Mercer [00:37:47]:

I wanna return back to something, though, back to the back to the live modeling and that thing, that that whole topic. I wanna go back to that because you sort of mentioned that there's a little bit of of challenges and barriers to it, but you're looking to tackle those. What what are they? And and I guess, what would your sort of idea of it look like in the future?

Brian Beachkofski [00:38:06]:

Yeah. So the basic approach we use right now for pregame, I think, could could hold a a bit of there. And then what we do currently is we take all the team statistics, for, what they've what the teams have done up to that point pregame, and then look at both teams, how those match up, and build the use that as input into the game. Combining that with what the odds are to say, okay. Does your model have it above or below market market odds on that? We would need that same approach for in game. Right? So given the current current given a given pregame estimate and then conditional on the observed statistics within the game and the current in game live odds, where do we think it's gonna it's gonna end up going? And that would be the approach I would use is is have it be a conditional. I'm a a Bayesian if if it hasn't come through. But say we have a prior our pregame is basically our prior, and then we have a certain amount of observations within the game that we update on a on a basis and just say, is our update put it on one side or the other of the of the live odds?

Shane Mercer [00:39:16]:

I I would very much look forward to to sort of seeing something like that, and I don't think there's much out there, that that looks like that. Very, very cool product. Wanna thank you, Brian, for for coming on the show and, and sort of sharing this, this with us and sort of, you know, letting us know what you guys are working on over there at, at Rithmm. So, again, thanks so much, and, and good luck to you as you sort of, you know, try to expand in this space.

Brian Beachkofski [00:39:40]:

Thank you so much for having me. Great conversation. Appreciate

Shane Mercer [00:39:47]:

Alright. So that's Rithmm. Pretty interesting piece of technology. I have played around with the site a little bit myself, and, I can attest to the one pick that I that I really tuned into, before the we were lining it up, and I should have brought it up with Brian when when we got well into a whole bunch of other things that you just heard. But I did go and take a look at at sort of one of the, picks, you know, that that was being provided for free on the site. It was, the Memphis Milwaukee game from last week just before the NBA All Star break. It showed something like, Memphis had a 16% chance to win the game, but the implied odds were something like 7 to 1, providing an edge of about 15%, I think it was. And, hey, guess what? Memphis won that game.

Andrew Pace [00:40:35]:

Oh, yeah. That was the that was the the, like, the g league game,

Shane Mercer [00:40:40]:

that, yeah. Almost turned into that. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:40:42]:

Yeah. Yeah. And and, Doc Rivers said, like, the whole team was out in Cabo or something like that. Like, it was an NBA team playing like a G League team, and and Memphis pulled it out. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:40:53]:

Yeah. Yeah. So so kudos to the team, at Rithmm for identifying that right before the, the NBA all star break. But, Pace, what do you think about the technology that they're developing there?

Andrew Pace [00:41:02]:

Well, I I think that there's there's something to be said, because we started this episode about the future of the industry from the standpoint of, like, market size and profit and things like that. Well, what is really important for anyone to understand in this space is how lines move with action, always being a way to create an edge. Is it this massive edge all the time? No. But when you have technology that can help identify some of those patterns, it can take a lot of the strenuous guesswork or heavy, heavy time commitments. I don't want to say take it out of the equation, but reduce it, in the equation. So when it comes to AI, specifically, we're kind of at the the the start of it all, and, you know, that this industry is one that will be heavily impacted by it if it hasn't already been, and and it has. So, yeah, I think that as as long as we continue to have dynamic lines, as long as we continue to have, games where, you know, the public thinks a certain way and and sharp money then balances that, you know, there there will be opportunities, of course, to to, to profit in the world of sports. And we talk about this all the time, like real responsible gaming tools where there's also tools that can help you win in a in a whole series of different ways.

Andrew Pace [00:42:28]:

So, I don't have experience, obviously, with this product specifically, but as a general statement, that would kind of be, you know, where where I stand with it all. And if those tools can help you, win some money and and make some better wagers as long again, you have to go click that bet. You have to go decide how much you're gonna wager. You you have to deal with money management. You have to decide if you're gonna add a little, you know, free money, air quotes there for people that are not watching. A little free money parlay on the edge of it. Right? Like, those are your decisions, not the AI tools decisions. So, you know, it's it's great as long as you're using using all of it in a responsible fashion.

Shane Mercer [00:43:12]:

Yeah. I think I think you touched on a a key thing there. You know? There's this AI technology is absolutely gonna be more impactful in in, I think, many, many facets of our lives, but heavily, heavily in the sports betting realm. Expect especially when we talk about, you know, trying to to sort of make projections or predictions about future outcomes and and what, you know, probabilities might be. I mean, that is a space for AI to thrive. But at the end of the day, it's humans out there playing the game. Right? It's it's humans out there coaching other humans to, you know, try and and win a game or, you know, it's always gonna come down to this to this human element that I think, an AI or any kind of technology just can't influence or or have an impact on. And especially when we talk about what we do, betting live, it's gonna be very difficult for, any kind of piece of technology to understand what humans are actually doing in the moment.

Shane Mercer [00:44:15]:

And I think that's always going to be, something that, will always be able to kind of have an edge over the machine. So when it comes to trying to, forecast or or look at what a probable outcome or or, you know, what a human is is likely to do.

Andrew Pace [00:44:31]:

Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. There there's historic data to to make predictions on theoretical value, and then there's actual chaos and what's what's happening on the on the the rink, the court, or the field. Right? So it it's been proven that chaos is unpredictable. So, you know, you can an an AI model won't usually do a prediction, based on 1, you know, 1 simulation. It'll be tens of thousands, if not millions, of sim simulations to come up with the most probable, outcomes or value based on that. But which one of those millions are gonna come into play and how it happens is is an infinite, probability.

Shane Mercer [00:45:11]:

So Yeah. Exactly. But I did think it was interesting, and that's why I kind of pushed them a little bit on it. The idea of live modeling or having models, you know, kind of adapt to a live scenario, I think would just be a really cool sort of tool to have on the side, you know, while engaged in in live sports betting. It would be, you know, I think it would be pretty cool. At least something to kind of just provide a little bit of an assist. Right? You're not gonna base all of your decisions on it just like you would in any other piece of technology or platform. But, you know, to have that little extra knowledge sitting there, you know, kind of helping you make a more informed decision.

Shane Mercer [00:45:45]:

I mean, you know, what's what's the downside of that. Right? Yeah. Alright. Well, very cool, interview there with, Brian Beachkofski from Rithmm. We look forward to bringing you many more voices from within this ever expanding and growing sports betting industry. Very, you know, optimistic about the future and, what what, you know, what's in store for for the sports betting world. So so much kind of happening at such a fast pace, and, it's just super exciting. So, stay tuned.

Shane Mercer [00:36:08]:

Remember to like, download, subscribe. Follow us on all the socials at inplayLIVE. Big shout out to OddsJam, which was brought up in the interview there earlier, and we are continuing to use over the course of the college basketball season, which we are ever slowly approaching March, and then the middle of the month when we get into the madness, which is something that I know I'm always excited for. And, PACE, I know you are too. So please stay with us, throughout the next few weeks. We're gonna be bringing you a lot more people and interviews and, talking about all of the topics in the sports betting industry that matter to you, sports bettors, who are trying to become better bettors. Alright, pace. Till next week, buddy.

Shane Mercer [00:46:59]:

Keep beating those books. Cheers. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download, and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below. And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code 'BEHINDTHELINES'.