Episode 52

Shane Mercer [00:00:00]:

Pace, will you be, building your brackets ahead of the tournament based on Ryan's, data and research and some of the work? Welcome to another episode of Behind the Lines, the only sports betting podcast purifying sports betting industry. Remember to like, download, subscribe, follow us on all the socials at inplayLIVE, and we have a special promo code for you. If you wanna see what the community is all about, Take a look on the inside. That is 'BEHINDTHELINES' all caps. That special promo code for you to join our amazing, sophisticated sports betting community. Alright. On today's show, Apple Sports App. Is it the sports Apple? Sports app? Apple Sports app? I don't know.

Shane Mercer [00:00:50]:

We'll play with names a little bit. Saturday Night Live nails it with a sports betting culture commentary and certified bracketology professor Ryan Ammer on the show. Really cool interview with him. Stay tuned for that. But first, I'm your host, Shane Mercer. That guy over there, Andrew Pace, the founder of inplayLIVE. And, Pace, this is a big announcement from Apple launching the Apple Sports app. It looks like it has a lot of potential to change the way we do things.

Andrew Pace [00:01:24]:

Yeah. Does it?

Shane Mercer [00:01:27]:

I I I think on the surface, it does, and I think it does just because it's Apple. Right? Here we are having one of the biggest technology companies offering us real time data. I I think that when they say it's real time, I believe them. You know? It's it's the kind of thing where I don't think they would say it if they didn't feel like they had the technology to provide that data at that speed and at the volume that they say they're going to be because they they're they're basically saying, hey. We're gonna have every single sport here for you.

Andrew Pace [00:01:58]:

Right. And and what's interesting is, one of the storylines we've followed throughout the football season was Betvision and BetGenius. And when I was on a call with them, which we haven't spoken about on this podcast, I actually just asked them, like, hey, guys. Like, I'm curious about your business from the standpoint of you guys offering this really great sports feed of of the NFL and a couple of other sports. You know, what what does it mean for you when Amazon, when, you know, CBS, when Fox, when Apple, whomever it may be, offers the the same low latency feed in in real time? And, it you know, as a as a technology business, it is a little scary to see how quickly a big player can just go bang and, and and really one up you or wipe you out. And I'm I always think there's so many examples over the course of time, but I think back to the craze of Snapchat social media platform, and everyone's using Snapchat. And they've got these cool unique social media features that not a lot of other people are are using, and then almost overnight Instagram adds those features. And it's like, is Snapchat still around? Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:03:03]:

It is. Is it worth something? Sure. Yeah. But, I mean, I really don't see a lot of people that use it anymore. So when I see Apple Sports, I think, uh-oh, ESPN. Uh-oh. Score. Even though those are huge companies, I have no idea if they're better, but Apple just does a really good job with a lot of the things that they do put forward.

Andrew Pace [00:03:24]:

So, like, I'm just clicking into, the NBA tonight. We're shooting this on, on Monday. It airs on on a Wednesday. The Raptors are playing the Pacers tonight, so I've got information on the money line, the spread, the totals. They're all there and listed. I don't know who is powering those lines. But one of the things that I really like is they've got the Western and Eastern Conference standings laid out in front of me here. Now from a, user standpoint, I am not familiar yet with actually using this when the games are on.

Andrew Pace [00:03:54]:

So I think that's something we're gonna have to comment on in a future episode. I'm sure some of our our listeners have already started using it in some capacity or another. But, like, kinda like what you said, Shane, you're excited because it's Apple. Well, you just look and I I just keep getting a little bit more and more excited about the thought of, like, getting rid of my 6 coaxial cable boxes and just being able to get information in live sports feeds in real time. So, yeah, definitely something that, that is exciting. And, as a long time Apple shareholder and user of their products, they never have to question whether or not they get my support.

Shane Mercer [00:04:26]:

Yeah. And, you know, I'm just really excited. Like, you brought up ESPN and you brought up the score. Like, that was the first one that came to mind was the score for me personally because I think that's the one I probably use most frequently when I'm trying to get a piece of data on a game really fast, especially something that's happening live. And I find that, you know, they've often been able to to, you know, give that information. But I'm I'm thinking, wow. If now Apple's entering this space, I mean and they're gonna do it better than them, and they probably have the capability to do it better than them. I mean, wow.

Shane Mercer [00:04:55]:

What what what a game changer there. And then I guess, you know, my next thought turns to, are they gonna create a betting app? You know, is there gonna be the Apple Sportsbook? Right? I mean, maybe. Maybe. I don't know. But it that's, you know, something to to think about, I guess, on their side. And and if they did, I wonder what that might look like and how they might treat their customers.

Andrew Pace [00:05:14]:

So Right. And we know they already entered the space with Friday night baseball. Like, they took over those Friday night baseball games. And those feeds, in the grand scheme of things, they weren't amazing, but they were okay, from, like, a latency standpoint. I watched a couple games, Friday night games on on the Apple app there, for the MLB. But, Shane, what's interesting, we actually have never spoken about this on Behind the Lines, but it's something that we've talked about in relation to odds providers. So we talk about the, odds providers, being what's under the hood of several different sportsbooks. Well, what comes with that is the betting feeds that the odds providers in the sportsbooks use.

Andrew Pace [00:05:53]:

So you might have one betting company, again, like BetGenius, who offers that BetVision product, and they are supplying the real time data to not 1 or 2, but potentially dozens of sportsbooks at the same time. So, Shane, we see this all the time as sports bettors where that data changes something in a game, whether it's a wrong score, a player that hit a 3 that was actually a 2 and the books haven't corrected it yet, but on the floor, it is corrected. The time on the clock, you know, potentially sometimes in a hockey game, you know, there might be 42 seconds left on all the books, but there's actually 50 2 seconds left on the ice. Might not be that significant of an example. But are we gonna have an independent data provider now that we can become more reliable on? Because you know Apple is not using other the other company's data. They are not doing that. So that to me is where I go, okay. How accurate is this? How fast is it? And how credible is it compared to some of those other spots? Because, we I've been on both sides of that.

Andrew Pace [00:06:59]:

I've been a recreational bettor on the public side where I used wrong information to think I was gaining an edge and made a really bad bet as a result of it. And then I've also been in the spot where I have the correct information, which is more probable now than not. I have the correct information. I'm able to potentially get gain an edge from having that information. The books will obviously have access to to a lot of this similar technology and and use it over time, but still, up to date information is is paramount.

Shane Mercer [00:07:29]:

Yeah. And and with all of that, with the with this sort of leveraging of technology that they're gonna be able to do and this idea that they wouldn't use an outside provider, you know, and sort of go and pay what an odds provider to provide them with with, with data because they're gonna be doing it on their own, comes the idea of, well, what if they were to launch a sports book? What would that sports book look like? And I think, you know, that they would be incentivized to say, you know what? We're gonna go with a sharp model book because, hey. This isn't our gonna be our main revenue source. This is just something we're doing on the side. And if it turns a a a small you know, a very sort of small margin in terms of profits, but we can gather a lot of people to it, it might be worth it. I don't know. It's it's something you know? It's a hypothetical, of course, and I maybe I'm just dreaming over here, but, I I I'm enjoying the dream. So it's an apple.

Shane Mercer [00:08:12]:

Bring it to us. Bring us a sharp buck, apple.

Andrew Pace [00:08:15]:

Right on.

Shane Mercer [00:08:16]:

Alright. With that, and and books and everything else, we saw something this week at some pace. I was betting on on Saturday, throughout throughout the day. And oftentimes, whether it's it's the weekend or not, I like to unwind at the end of the night because, you know, sports betting, live sports betting, it's a big drain on the brain, you know, or watching lines. It's you know? So at the end of the night, I like to throw on something mindless on TV. Usually, it's some kind of comedy or something, you know, just something to make me laugh and, you know, something I can just zone out to and and not think much about. Right? And so on Saturdays, that tends to be Saturday night live. And so this past Saturday, I'm, you know, wrapping up the day and I'm like, oh, what am I gonna what am I gonna watch here? And and, you know, Saturday night live is is, on.

Shane Mercer [00:09:00]:

It was a little bit later, but I'm restarting it, and and I got to watch, this, which was just honestly, to me, it just nailed it as a commentary on the state of sports betting culture in North America. So, why don't I go ahead and, and play that for everybody, here? And, let let's just check it out because this is just awesome. Alright. Rock bottom Kings pace. Would you bet on rock bottom Kings?

Andrew Pace [00:09:43]:

Oh, jeez. I think they do a great job of, of calling the industry out because it it is a joke, and it's funny. But at the end of the day, they are they are doing that specifically because of all the shit that we see on TV, the explosions, making it look easy, all that kind of stuff, and then trying to make it seem like they care by saying, oh, it's serious or whatever. Call the gambling helpline. Then they say you could bet on that as well is is really the the punch there. I mean, I think it's a great call out of the industry. When I watched it, I'm like, this is, this is, like, spot on from the standpoint of making like, the social trends of making a mockery of actual gambling problems, which we've seen in in the comments and some of the things that can happen, under a a certain type of a real creating awareness, for someone that has, you know, a problem gambling story. And then, of course, all all the betting and how easy it's, you know, supposed to be with with, these ads.

Shane Mercer [00:10:41]:

Yeah. It's just a a a an, you know, incredible piece of satire that just nails different elements of the of the culture right now when it comes to sports betting in North America. You know? Like you said, you got, you know, the sportsbooks, but they're you know, with the ads that are everywhere that make it look super easy and exciting. You know? And and then that's, you know, culture that I think we touched on last week about, you know, don't give up. How, you know, you keep making your parlays. Right? Like, you're a quitter if you stop. Right? And all of that kind of stuff. Right? And it's really kind of getting at that idea that, hey.

Shane Mercer [00:11:15]:

Look what happens when you don't stop. Right? And when you keep up with the problem gambling, all these things can happen. And, hey. You know? Then the the exactly. And nailing it with the with the punch line of it. Let's bet on that now. Right? And it's like and then also this idea too that, you know, friends end up perhaps getting pitted against each other when it comes to sports betting. Right? And you talk you know, you could you could be there with your friend and, you know, oh, I'm gonna take, you know, team a tonight.

Shane Mercer [00:11:40]:

No. I think team b, and you you end up rooting for the other person's loss. You know? And and that kind of thing happens, and it's, it's a really kind of negative aspect of the sports betting culture, at least in terms of how it's developing so far in North America. And I also think, you know, the fact that that we're touching on it and hitting it as hard as the way they did really sort of speaks to this idea that maybe we're reaching a a point of critical mass, you know, in terms of of market saturation of sports betting just generally and how it is everywhere now, and you you almost can't escape it. Anyway, I thought it was just I thought it was just, perfect in in terms of how they, how they did it. So, kudos to to SNL and and for for making me laugh, last night and giving us a little content here for the show.

Andrew Pace [00:12:25]:

There you go.

Shane Mercer [00:12:26]:

Yeah. Alright. With that, we have a pretty cool guest on to talk our college basketball and pace. When people start listening to this, it'll be the end of February, and they may be listening to it on the 1st day of March. And let's just call it. March is here. Right? It's it's it's just about to be March madness time. And, I know the the team at imply live is is really excited for that.

Shane Mercer [00:12:49]:

And, the guy we have on here, really, really interesting in terms of what he's doing, and and why and how it can, you know, help influence, some decision making. And, I I think it's it's really fascinating. So with that, here is Ryan Hammer, certified bracketologist, as I keep calling him and will call him again. Let's roll that interview. Hammer, a certified bracketologist, a guy studying all things n c, double a, hoops. Welcome to the show, Ryan. Great to have you.

Ryan Hammer [00:13:24]:

I appreciate y'all for bringing me on. It's been good.

Shane Mercer [00:13:26]:

Hey. Really, really excited to have you and talk college hoops. We are huge fans of college hoops at inplayLIVE. 1st, I just wanna ask you, give give us a sense of your work. What how would exactly would you describe it? What do you do?

Ryan Hammer [00:13:41]:

It's a great question. Too it's probably too much. But anything from, what most people see, a lot of analytic breakdowns on team stats and team stuff and rankings and observations and analysis on team stuff, March Madness tournament, bracketology. But there's also a lot of, like, player evaluation. They do a lot of NBA draft stuff, especially as the tournament goes on further and post tournament into the draft process throughout the summer and all. So the college is trying to bridge the gap between college and NBA and kind of hitting as much as I can in that sense, but, it's a it's a wide range and, like I said, probably too wide for my mental mental stamina.

Andrew Pace [00:14:18]:

I I actually Shane, sorry. I actually haven't seen anyone online that, posts, as educational of content as college hoops as you do. And I appreciate it. I actually thought about your page when I was looking at some of your stuff that I'd come across, and I was like, is there anyone in this world that evaluates college hoops as much as this dude?

Ryan Hammer [00:14:41]:

No. I I appreciate it.

Andrew Pace [00:14:42]:

Anyone else like you that does this stuff?

Ryan Hammer [00:14:44]:

There's there's tons of people that do stuff under the radar and all. I think highly of myself and what I do, and I like what I do, and everything I put out is for a reason, obviously. I don't think there's anyone like me that does, like I said, the combination of what I do and, the depth analysis and visuals and, all that together. That being said, there are people who do things better than I do and do things worse and whatever and different things that I don't touch. So there's it just depends. I think it's a personal preference type thing. So

Shane Mercer [00:15:12]:

so, Ryan, I've I've pulled up a a screenshot here and just sharing for all of our audience out there. So if you're if you're just listening on the pod, you might wanna go and watch the YouTube version to get a sensor. At least go check out Ryan, on Twitter. That's at Ryan Hammer o nine, and he's also on Instagram, Ryan Hammer 9. But, Ryan, give us a sense of exactly what it is we're looking at here. This is the, you so so your posting goes with the power 30 comes the metric rank comparison with CBD Analytics. And and you've got some agree and disagree. So so, you know, you've got some some issues that that you're taking here with what their rankings are versus yours.

Shane Mercer [00:15:47]:

But give us a sense of what is this metric rank? How did you create it? What is it exactly?

Ryan Hammer [00:15:52]:

Yeah. So every week, I do a power 30 from I don't know what date the start season starts. November middle of November when the season starts, power 30 of me power ranking teams. I updated every single Monday once a week, kinda like the AP poll does. I like to think I'm better than the AP poll, which is not a good standard because that's easy. But, I like to it's a lot of iTest and, like, yes, there's resume things behind it where where do teams rank in some metrics in in the net and chempom and all these different things. But it's a lot of eye testing. So this with, partnering with c b CBB Analytics, a great data site, Iwork, we I basically put a side by side view of their top 30 in adjusted net rating and my top 30 in a power ranking.

Ryan Hammer [00:16:32]:

So a lot of times, I'm we we we talk about a 1,000,000 things in here, but it basically just looks about the differences and agreements from what not just my power ranking, but most consensus power rankings look like versus what the numbers and data actually say. Me and every other person doing a power ranking don't fully agree on everything, but, like, USF is obviously not gonna be loved by the numbers because of their early season, start and their woes there. But everyone doing a power ranking now has to include them because they're playing so well. So there's a lot of differences like that, but I think it's just really interesting. We thought about it with CB analytics a few weeks ago actually to start doing this. It's like it'd be a great look to show people, like, hey. Like, you know, these some teams are good on Ken Palm or this site or whatever and, like, in the metrics, but how does that actually compare? And, like, what does that mean going forward? So I think it's a good look.

Shane Mercer [00:17:20]:

So just, I guess, you know, give us a sense then when you say that you are, comparing, you know, and and you're sort of collecting data to compare it with consensus rankings. What exactly does that like, how does the what does that process look like? How do you you're using CBN analytics, and you're just scanning all of their data, but don't all these other people have the same data and access to the same data?

Ryan Hammer [00:17:44]:

Yeah. So every site that puts out metrics is gonna be a little different in what their formulas truly are. Like, no one knows the exact Ken Pomp formula, obviously, because then his business wouldn't be as unique, and he would be toast. But so every site is a little different. Like, you'll see BYU might be higher on some sites and, just random spitball in Saint Mary's might be lower on some sites. So but it's a general idea. Like like you're saying, all these sites are gonna be very similar because the numbers aren't gonna lie even if you deviate one part of a formula different than another or you weight certain things. It's not gonna fluctuate from Kem Palm to CBB analytics to Evan Mia to Bart Torbjorn, like, that much.

Ryan Hammer [00:18:23]:

But the power rankings do because my power rankings, if Gonzaga loses twice this week, I'm dropping their ass out. And CBB analytics is not gonna do that because they don't just look at them and say there's no way they're a top 30 team, but I do. So that's, like, the biggest difference, I think.

Shane Mercer [00:18:36]:

Right. So you're so you're kind of adding in that that human element and analysis that, I guess, you know, for you is is rooted in a lot of experience as well. Right?

Ryan Hammer [00:18:45]:

Yeah. I think I'd like to trust my gut. Let's be honest, though, when the bracket comes out in March, I go with gut calls, and half the time they're wrong. And I'm like, god. Whatever. What the fuck? But I tried to, and I think that's what genuine power rankings are. And you see that in every sport. You see NFL power rankings every week during the season and MLB and NBA, etcetera, throughout the entire year.

Ryan Hammer [00:19:04]:

But there really aren't like, in college basketball, I think it is consensiously using the whole entire industry uses analytics and numbers more than any other sport. NFL is probably, there's a deeper layer to it, but for the general people and the general public and the common fan, I don't know of a sport that uses the metrics like this as much and considers it because of Kemppam and stuff like that. So I think it's really good to basically give people every ounce of it to to let them know what's going on. So

Shane Mercer [00:19:32]:

I've noticed on a lot of your, social media that you also do a fair amount of traveling. Like, you're getting out to games. You're watching a lot of games in person. How does that influence your your work here when you're creating these power rankings?

Ryan Hammer [00:19:46]:

Yeah. I'm trying, something that I wanted to do different this year and take things to the next level, and next year, it'll be even more. You really get a better feel for on all different levels. Like, just being there in general as a fan is enjoyable. Like, I was at Baylor this past weekend and brand new stadium. Like, the vibes down there. I'm from New Jersey. Going to Waco, Texas is in a different world, so I loved it.

Ryan Hammer [00:20:07]:

It was so much fun. But then also, like, evaluating teams and how they're gonna be and how my gut like, I saw about gut check and gut feeling on those teams are, gonna be for the tournament in postseason and even players for the NBA draft. And even if it is just trusting a certain player in the tournament, like this past weekend, the Houston Baylor game I was at, Jamal Shedd, I've known he's amazing. He's that dude. He's one of the best players in the country, but I would trust him with my life in my life in his hands, like, without a doubt, especially after seeing him and them play. So little things like that kinda push me one way or another. I try not to bias it too much based on where I was because, like, I've been to Baylor, but I haven't been to Duke, and I haven't been to Illinois. So I try to keep it as just as I can, but some games, obviously, like a Baylor Houston game is next level, so you take that into consideration.

Shane Mercer [00:20:53]:

Yeah. Yeah. That that makes sense. But that's pretty cool that that you're getting out there and you're kinda seeing things for yourself. So, you know, we got we gotta ask you. You know, we're a community of of sports betters. We bet on sports pretty regularly, especially college basketball at this time of year. Do you bet on sports? And and, you know, what does what does what does your sports betting look like?

Ryan Hammer [00:21:09]:

I dabble. I used to more, but I just, like I never wanna half ass it, so I think my time and, like, my mental capacity just are occupied by other things. So, like, I during the tournament, maybe I'll throw some bets out there and stuff like that. And, I'm always looking at lines also and understanding those kinds of things because it definitely helps you try to realize if I'm missing something or, like, what the what to expect in games and whatnot. So I'm always paying attention to that stuff even if I'm not actively wagering, but, it's a it's a seldom experience now, I'd say.

Shane Mercer [00:21:40]:

So so not not, you know, all the time. So what do you hope to do with your data then? Like, Like, what do you what do you hope kinda comes with all of the stuff that you're

Ryan Hammer [00:21:46]:

Yeah. I one I think is just interesting. Like I said, I don't think this happens in any other sport like this, and I think that's super intriguing to be able to visualize 363 teams on a one piece of paper or one sheet virtual sheet, and just be able to look at it and understand more without even watching a game. I'm not a just a stat nerd. I'm a I'm big on the eye test and, like, Hooper or whatever, that kind of thing because there's that's like the the bus meme where you have, like, one one person on this side of the spectrum, one person on the other, and they kind of never agree. I try to find the middle ground in that, but I just think it's really interesting, 1. And then 2, I know that people bet, and I know that people gamble. And other people just like to understand also going into games.

Ryan Hammer [00:22:27]:

Like, if people are watching Duke Carolina next weekend or this weekend, Gonzaga, Saint Mary's, and, like, they just wanna know what to expect. So I do a lot of breakdowns and previews of stuff like that of, hey. Like, Gonzaga plays really fast, and Saint Mary's plays really slow. And on the road, Gonzaga does this, and this is what you should expect in that game. So little things like that that I think like I said, I understand that gamblers and bettors love that stuff like y'all because it makes sense. Why wouldn't you? Like, this stuff has actual contextual evidence in from the last few years and from even last 10 to 20 years as to why it it, it works. It's kind of like an evidence of itself, but, there's a lot of different reasons. I also just enjoy it.

Ryan Hammer [00:23:05]:

Just it's just fun to look at things in in a different scope.

Shane Mercer [00:23:08]:

Pace will you be, building your brackets ahead of the tournament based on Ryan's, data and research and some

Andrew Pace [00:23:16]:

of the well, what what are what perfect brackets don't exist. Right? So it's one of these things where, like, we're just taught to fail in that in that space no matter what we do. But what I can say and I can kinda bridge the betting stuff a little bit with the content that you've produced, Ryan, is, like, when I've come across things, the visuals are so powerful because when you do have, like, some of your x, y, 4 quadrant graphs that, will plot things based on pace of play, but also based on the wins that are produced by that team. Those visuals are really powerful, for a betting group like ourselves because we can then quickly identify a team that is less or more likely to score more or less points, in a significant, part of the game that could present potential value, based on the way that that game's actually, trending, and and the way that team's sort of sort of playing. So as we move into, like, conference tournament week, we're gonna be referencing some of the stuff that you've you've put forward for sure. So I feel like it's almost like a a preemptive thank you because we haven't really used it much yet. But I know that as we as we get down the stretch here, we're we're gonna be looking at some of that stuff. I definitely noticed that, a lot of the stuff that you put forward there is, let's call it defense positive.

Andrew Pace [00:24:46]:

So the teams the teams that are ranked higher in the, in the power rankings that you put further down are the fast paced teams, and you really seems like you really, you you kinda, lean defense when it comes to, your rankings. Would that be accurate?

Ryan Hammer [00:25:02]:

Yeah. I think I we talked that before the show. My, my, whatever it's called, bio says, like, defense appreciator, which is very much true. I appreciate a good defense. It's funny. I don't, like, consciously do that, and I'll just be like, oh, yeah. Alabama plays way too fast and way too they're way too good on offense to me to rank them too high. They win games.

Ryan Hammer [00:25:21]:

Like, I don't really care. And if they look good, which teams like Alabama and Arizona, for the most part, and Kentucky do, I just know that, historically, there's much more is a much higher success rate with those teams that have a better defense. And Arizona lost to Princeton last year, and they were one of those teams in the top right quadrant. Really good and really high pace and a lot of possessions, and the problem is with those teams and is that at some point, like, they could play 4 teams that play at a high pace also, and they're just better. And they're gonna kick their ass and kick them to the curb and go to the final 4. But the problem is is that when you play a team that does the exact opposite, then the game, it it leans the your favor it favors the other team, your opponent, especially in an upset, because if you're used to playing whatever, I call it a 100 a 100 possessions in a game and then you play against Saint Mary's who plays in half that, you now have to focus more on offense and each possession means so much more which you're not used to. And then if you get behind it all, you're kinda screwed at that point. And that's why Houston is so good.

Ryan Hammer [00:26:18]:

I mentioned Saint Mary's. That's why they've been so good, and Dayton's been so good this year. And that's why Arizona lost to Princeton last year, and that's why Princeton beat Missouri last year, and it happens to a lot of teams. And that's why Alabama lost San Diego State. They weren't able to play their comfortable game in the sweet 16 last year. So it's more of like a historical understanding of, hey. Like, these teams tend to flop at some point. Now that being said, teams like Gonzaga in 2021 when they lost to Baylor in the title game, They were all the way in the top right well past where Arizona is, but they also did it at a much higher rating and I think much better effectiveness.

Ryan Hammer [00:26:53]:

So that kinda speaks to that. But teams will succeed, and they will win by doing that. I just think there's a a lower floor, I guess, we'll say, in postseason play.

Andrew Pace [00:27:01]:

So, Ryan, with this visual up right here with the the trapezoid of excellence, knowing that a bunch of our our listeners are not viewing this, can you try to walk us through this a little bit and what it means? And then I know you're not a big bettor yourself, but then just maybe from a betting standpoint, not necessarily giving advice, but just, you know, giving the data associated with it?

Ryan Hammer [00:27:21]:

Yeah. For sure. So the the trapezoid of excellence has taken off this year in terms of popularity. People hate me all the time. Like, oh, when when's the next trapezoid excellence? And I was like, holy shit. What did I do to myself? Like because if it flops, which is not gonna flop like it's based on historical stuff, I'm confident in it. If it flops, my reputation down the drain. But they it basically goes PACE, horizontal and adjusted net rating, which is basically just, like, efficiency and overall efficiency on the website going vertical.

Ryan Hammer [00:27:49]:

The further right, the more possessions you play, the higher pace, like Arizona that I mentioned, and the further left, the exact opposite where Houston and Saint Mary's are and bunch of teams like that. So the reason why there's a trapezoid of excellence in the middle and not in the top right or the top left really is because teams that win national championships and also teams that tend to make runs that you didn't expect tend to not play too fast or too slow and also at a higher rating because, like we're saying, if you if you can play both speeds, right, both ways and adapt to your opponent, and be able to change things and be comfortable in different situations, unlike Arizona and Alabama and Kentucky are, in my opinion, and the numbers will support that, then you have a better chance of winning. And so UConn last year, Baylor in 21, Virginia was a little bit more towards where Houston is, which is still okay. Those teams tend to be not all the way fast or all the way slow, but towards the middle to be able to do those things. And the reason I have to explain this to a lot of people why it's a trapezoid is because, right, like, if you play super fast like Arizona, for people that can see this right now, they're they're at a very, very good rating. Like, one of the best in the country. It looks like maybe, like, 3rd or 4th best, something like that. But you need to be, like, where Houston is in terms of adjusted net rating to be able to play that slow and be able to win a national title, and that's where Virginia was where so if you play really, really fast, you have to play even at an even better rating is what I'm trying to say because you have to really be able to kick everyone's ass no matter what they're gonna throw at you.

Ryan Hammer [00:29:18]:

So that's why it's a trapezoid. And the biggest way that I tell people to use this is not to live and die by this because it's not that simple. But if you are a society between a couple national champions and, say, you like Purdue and you like Kentucky and you like, I don't know, Houston, like, this might say, okay. Go with Purdue. And if you if you really don't know who to go with and, also, finding the differences in matchups is the biggest thing, especially in the early round. So hard to see all the different teams here. I probably should've focused some to a smaller quantity, and I will as the tournament comes closer when the tournament's here, obviously. But if Arizona or Alabama that plays super, super fast, I think I we just I just mentioned it.

Ryan Hammer [00:29:57]:

If they play against, like, Saint Mary's or if they play out, I think, Vermont's down there towards the slow end or Princeton, in the 1st or second round, those teams that play it at a very slow pace at a high rating can easily just make Alabama or Arizona uncomfortable and play a game that's and that's 30 to 28 instead of 50 to 45 at halftime. And then all of a sudden, Arizona and Alabama are scrambling at halftime trying to figure out what to do. And, if they're playing from behind in a slow crunch game where Princeton's taking every second of the shot clock, those are the things I look for. And I kinda ramble on for a bit, but finding the differences with real contextual evidences as to, like, what you can see happening. Okay. This this can definitely happen, and there's such opposites that this is an opport good opportunity for an upset even though it might not happen.

Andrew Pace [00:30:40]:

I think from a betting standpoint, I'm gonna kinda bridge the gap a little bit here because the way we wager at inplayLIVE, which obviously many of our listeners know about, is we like to actually identify some of these discrepancies as they're happening in real time. So, you know, you might get 4 or 5 examples similar to what you just mentioned there where the public actually isn't surprised and potentially that big favorite or that big school does run away with the game. But the one that doesn't then seeing that in real time and then being able to go, hey. We saw this chart. We saw this team that plays at a very different pace than than than Alabama or Arizona. Because of that information, we know that they're pretty uncomfortable right now, and this game has become a struggle. You might be able to get a live spread that that that, underdog, could cover that has some theoretical value on it, and you might even be able to get a money line or an underdog upset, which I know we got a few of in the tournament last year that really, really went well for us. And the flip side to that is a school that, has that sort of that that that Cinderella run that we we tend to see, the the public actually tends to get burnt by those teams more than any other teams even though they're the public's favorite story.

Andrew Pace [00:31:55]:

And the reason for that is because the first time they won, they cost the public money by upsetting the favorite. The second time they won, the public tends to not believe that they can do it again. And then by the time we get to that 3rd round is when the public is like, the big Cinderella story. You know? Maybe they win that 3rd game and the public actually did well on it. And then, you know, if if not, they they lose again on them. And then and then, of course, after that, they tend to derail because they actually aren't teams that will be, in that trapezoid itself. They they tend to, you know, make it to maybe a sweet 16, maybe an elite 8, and and then and then they can really get the doors blown off one once they get in that position, which obviously we've seen kinda year in, year out. But visually speaking, seeing this and then kind of parlaying that with real time situations from a betting standpoint, as we always say on the show, information is power.

Andrew Pace [00:32:53]:

So I love this stuff. It's really cool.

Ryan Hammer [00:32:55]:

Yeah. For sure. Yeah. People people love this graph, and they love the trapezoid of excellence. I've been had told a 1000000 times, hey. Gotta make it. Give me a t shirt or something with trap with that on it. I'm like, I I don't really know if that's gonna happen, but okay.

Shane Mercer [00:33:07]:

I gotta ask you, Ryan, because I I know before we started the show here and I and some of your your, some of your handles on on social there, you know, you describe yourself as as a advocate for defense or a guy who really appreciates defense. And so when we talk about the fast paced school, like in Arizona, for example, matching up with with a much slower paced school, why is it that the faster paced team is the one that's uncomfortable? Why is it not the slower paced team that that is the one uncomfortable? I guess, why why is the fast paced team at the disadvantage?

Ryan Hammer [00:33:43]:

Yeah. I think I think there are teams, I will say preface and say that there are fast paced teams that, don't get put out of their pace. Right? So Gonzaga in 2021 was one of those teams. That's how they got the national title game and almost won, even though Baylor was amazing. Like, they if a team like Saint Mary's that came up against a team like that of this year's team, they would blow them out of the water because they were so effing good at it. But in in a vacuum and most of the time, it's because they're used to playing so many possessions, so they don't have to shoot at as higher field goal percentages, and then they make teams that kind of play in the middle of pace and at a regular pace in different styles, they make them uncomfortable because they have to just keep up, keep up, keep up, keep up. But if you play against a team like Dayton or Saint Mary's are good I keep referencing them because we're looking at the graph. Right? But they're those are 2 efficient offenses also and so is Princeton.

Ryan Hammer [00:34:31]:

Right? So they in great example. They have a good defense and a great offense by by the metrics and efficiencies, and they make every possession count where Arizona and Alabama, for the most part, like, it kinda fluctuates. In in some games, like, when Alabama played Kentucky, they didn't make every possession count because they just had to play keep up and just go go go. And if they're missing, they're like, okay. It's okay. We're gonna have many more possessions in the game where Dayton almost values each possession more, if that makes sense. So I think that's kind of what it what it knuckles down to. And only when Dayton starts off with a lead or a team like Dayton, if they play Arizona and they start off, they're up 20 to 10, and then Arizona gets lost, and then they start really scrambling.

Ryan Hammer [00:35:11]:

And every possession means even more an incremental level because they're losing, and they really have to start hitting at a higher rate, because Dayton's gonna take all 30 seconds of every shot clock at that

Shane Mercer [00:35:21]:

point. Alright. So really interesting how you kind of put that together there in the sense that a team like Dayton values its possessions so much more and is more effective with those possessions. And and then another team perhaps like Arizona, for example, that that maybe doesn't value its possessions as much. And and I guess that's something that sort of becomes kind of culturally ingrained in the schools themselves, and I thus making it hard to kind of break out of that pattern when put on in the moment and on the spot.

Ryan Hammer [00:35:51]:

Yeah. They're they're kinda just so used to go especially in the Pac 12 Arizona. It's just a great example because it is such an offensive power conference, and it's a conference that's heavyweight at the top by Arizona. Lazio has been playing a lot better, who they did sweep Arizona. But realistically, there's not a lot of good teams. So you kind of have to teams that are that much worse in the Pac 12 play end up just tailoring to whatever Arizona wants to do all year, and that's what those teams like to do also. And they they know that from years past. So when you get a team from a conference that doesn't play like that, like Houston, and those teams over there and then the a 10 with Dayton, that's a team that they they never reside to letting teams kinda run them at the gym like that, so.

Shane Mercer [00:36:29]:

Yeah. Yeah. Pace pace of play is such a big part of what we do at inplayLIVE and betting on sports live. I mean, such valuable knowledge to know ahead of time to look at a matchup and say, hey. We've got Dayton against Arizona, for example, and this is gonna be a clash of of matchups when it comes to pace. And we can, based on what Ryan's telling us, expect or perhaps, you know, project that the defense is gonna win out over time in a in a game.

Andrew Pace [00:36:57]:

Yeah. Or at least just welcome the chaos of it all, right, where you just kind of appreciate it as it's unfolding. And and, yeah. Information's power power data is power. So all of this can just go into the bank, help you make better decisions long term when it comes to this kind of stuff. But, Ryan, I will say, like, it would be great to have you to come back on to do, an I told you so moment with the trapezoid of excellence, should it should it come into fruition. But from the standpoint of the public, so not the bettors, and all the brackets. I know you said don't follow me for the brackets, but using some of that data, what would be your big advice piece to, everyone that is filling those out in the next month here, when it comes to some of that data that you're seeing?

Ryan Hammer [00:37:38]:

Yeah. I I think and it actually goes back to the betting thing also. I was thinking about it before where finding value is is important and value in terms of especially in the in the tournament, people think of huge underdogs and whatever. If you're talking Moneyline plus 3, plus 4, plus 500, 600 odds, even bigger for the higher seats, obviously. And I think if you hit 1 or 2 of those, even if you try on 5 or 6, it's okay if you get them if you don't get the other one so wrong in the other regions and stuff like that. I just think where you see an opportunity and there's value even if it's still less than a 50% chance of of likely it happening, I think you'd take it. So an example might be, if I think I'm gonna drop some random bracket in my head, and we're the same teams we keep talking about because they're on my mind. If you have Arizona and then you have Dayton versus Saint Mary's right here and then whatever, like, if you think, hey.

Ryan Hammer [00:38:29]:

Like, Saint Mary's is the underdog against Dayton, and they would be against Arizona, but I don't see Arizona getting past that sweet 16 point here, whoever they might play after that. So that's a really good and and, also, the matchup makes sense for one of these 2 teams like Saint Mary's to be able to beat day in, and they match up well against Arizona. So almost like picking and choosing your your upset battles and your value picks based on where you see those top teams kind of falling. Where Purdue last year, I took I think I took Memphis to go to the Elite 8 or final 4 because I was like, damn. Memphis FAU is a toss-up. I I like whoever whoever I gets out of there to beat Purdue. They didn't have to play Purdue, but, I still would have taken them even if I knew that Purdue, was definitely gonna win because I saw that opportunity. He said, I don't think Purdue is gonna go that far, so let me pick a flyer here because I do like these teams also next to them.

Ryan Hammer [00:39:16]:

So that's my biggest suggestion. And then also don't don't just stare at numbers and be like, yeah. Like, this guy, Ryan Hammers, says that these teams are gonna be good at this.

Ryan Hammer [00:39:24]:

Like, don't do not do that. I will fill out a bracket. It's usually decent enough, and I I have some picks I I get excited about and all, but I never win my bracket group because you don't need to know anything to win a bracket group. So stick with your gut and also pick teams this sounds real stupid. I do it all the time. Pick teams that you want to root for. Like, I enjoy watching Houston play.

Ryan Hammer [00:39:44]:

So I might pick Houston to win a national championship or go to the final 4. I don't enjoy I don't know. I don't there's not many teams I don't enjoy, but I don't I'm a Maryland fan. I don't enjoy Maryland. If Maryland was the tournament, I wouldn't pick them because they make me sad. But that's that's the thing. If you feel passionate about teams and you wanna see them win on top of being confident in them because of x, y, zed, then roll with those kind of teams. So

Andrew Pace [00:40:07]:

Yeah. That's awesome. I also think too that some of the points that you made could actually transition really well into what I would call the most underrated part of March Madness and that it's the conference tournaments before the tournament. I just there there's nothing like that that week or 2 weeks with, counting some of the smaller divisions, and and watching them fight for that that only spot to get in the tournament. Right? And and how exciting that that can be. And, obviously, it's a little bit more volume. So from a betting standpoint, we're always looking for volume, and, the tournament is actually when a lot of the it's 1 it's interesting. It's when the public gets most excited, and it's when the volume actually decreases.

Andrew Pace [00:40:41]:

So yeah.

Ryan Hammer [00:40:43]:

Yeah. For sure. And I think it's funny, Vic, in terms of betting especially and making picks, the conference tournaments are probably the hardest thing to do in my opinion because there is not as much there's not as much research that goes into it as the NCAA tournament because that's obviously the big the big dog, the big whale, the dance, whatever. But, also, there's not as much historical evidence as to runs and whatever and upsets in the conference tournaments because, like, I don't know, Tex A&M, who's struggling in SEC play and they've been struggling all year, they might they're a good team and they like, everyone I might think, hey. Like, they're they're good. They can easily beat on Alabama and then beat the Tennessee and go make a run to the SEC tournament final, because of what whatever reason I like them in the NCAA tournament if they get there. But then all of a sudden, like, I don't know, Ole Miss or Missouri comes out of the out of the the depths of the waters, and that stuff just happens. It happened with Georgetown in the Big East a couple years ago, and not a single soul saw it happening.

Ryan Hammer [00:41:37]:

Oregon State in the Pac 12 tournament. It's just not the same statistical evidence and proof throughout the year because they've been playing these teams all season long, and now all of a sudden it happens. So, like, it just may it it's mind boggling almost, and, so I I put less value into my picks for those than I do for the tournament for sure.

Shane Mercer [00:41:56]:

Cool. Good to know. Ryan Hammer. That's at Ryan Hammer 09 on x and Ryan Hammer 9 on Instagram. Any other socials you wanna give a shout out to? Or or

Ryan Hammer [00:42:06]:

No. You're good. If people search my name, they should be able to find it. I'm not worried.

Shane Mercer [00:42:09]:

There you go. He's an easy guy to find. Certified bracketologist. I look forward to using the trapezoid of excellence as I build my brackets, this year for sure.

Ryan Hammer [00:42:18]:

Of course. Yeah. I appreciate y'all having me on.

Shane Mercer [00:42:20]:

Alright. Take care.

Ryan Hammer [00:42:21]:

Yep.

Shane Mercer [00:42:26]:

Alright, pace. So that was Ryan Hammer. I am honest when I say I think I might just use that trapezoid of excellence when I build my next bracket. I mean, it looks really cool, and, I think he's on to something.

Andrew Pace [00:42:39]:

Yeah. The the the more we know about teams' tendencies and patterns and, like, if I actually think back to last year's tournament, some of the things that we were doing live, especially with UConn's run, where they put us in this position over and over again, and then we hit these wagers on them over and over again. We are identifying these things to an extent, but this gives you that much more confidence when you're seeing on it unfold, which is is is tremendous. Also, I think with college basketball in particular, you know, you do have hundreds of teams. So, it can get a little messy. It can get a little chaotic. A bunch of teams come through the the the menu, and you you might not have a bunch of information on that particular team. And, sometimes these visuals can can help, especially if, you know, you you zoom in a little bit and can't get some of those clumps a little bit more separated so that you can actually see which which team is which.

Andrew Pace [00:43:39]:

So, yeah, great stuff, and looking forward to the the future with respect to those types of things.

Shane Mercer [00:43:44]:

Yeah. You know, as you get you know, touching on the whole clash of styles fast paced versus slow slow paced team, It's the kind of thing where it's like, you know what? If I see that now, I can go and look at the the trapezoid then look at the schedule of games, right, and sort of see, like, oh, or do we have any of these major clashes taking place? And then, you know, maybe circle them and say, okay. But now, you know, let's watch the game live and see how it develops. And is it is it playing into what he suggested, where the slower paced team is is likely or, you know, perhaps has a higher percentage chance of prevailing in in imposing their style of play on the game. And and if that's the case and you are seeing it, well then, jeez. Now it gives you, like you said, that much more confidence to place the wager on the game if it is fitting into our strategy.

Andrew Pace [00:44:35]:

Yeah. Absolutely. Absolutely. And then and also just from a recreational standpoint, like, you know, may maybe you shouldn't take, you know, whatever team to win to win March Madness, based on looking at some of that stuff and and to win your bracket. It can it can I think brackets are impossible, but it can help you actually get closer to the right per the right team at the end of the whole thing? Right?

Shane Mercer [00:44:57]:

Yeah. Exactly. Well, you know, really glad to to have Ryan on the show. And I I think he provided us with a with a lot of information, and I definitely plan to look to to look at more of his stuff on social media as we sort of make our way through this month of March. Very exciting times. And also helping us along the way, we'll have OddsJam up, during during streams and and, throughout, and if people want a promo code, we have a promo code for people that are part of inplayLIVE already to, sign up for OddsJam right?

Andrew Pace [00:45:27]:

Yeah. Yeah. Just fire in that code 'inplaylive' for 35% off your first month or 'inplaylive15' for 15% off in perpetuity.

Shane Mercer [00:45:33]:

Yeah. Helps you really identify, the weak lines that are out there across the books and, you know, helps, make your decisions a little bit easier, especially if you've already said, oh, I really wanna bet this. Well, who's offering the best line? Who's offering the best odds? Make it all right there in front of you. It makes life, that much easier, as you as you bet live. Alright. Well, with that pace, I think that's another show in the books. Looking forward to talking a lot more about college basketball as we progress through this next month. Cheers, buddy.

Shane Mercer [00:46:03]:

Alright. Keep beating those books. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download, and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below. And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code 'BEHINDTHELINES'.