Episode 64

Andrew Pace [00:00:00]:

I had a great baseball season last summer. I was making, I would say, 3 to 5 bets a week and I got limited on 2 different books throughout the summer and I profited about $30,000. And a big reason why I profited, again, no tiny violence here, only $30,000. Woah. Got confetti raining down on me on the broadcast here.

Shane Mercer [00:00:25]:

They got a party going on.

Andrew Pace [00:00:26]:

You made 30 grand. You made 30 grand. Confetti started pouring on me.

Shane Mercer [00:00:39]:

Hello, and to another episode of Behind the Lines, the only podcast purifying the sports betting industry. Remember to like, download, subscribe, follow us on all the socials at inplayLIVE. And if you wanna see what it's all about on the inside, we've got that promo code for you 'BEHINDTHELINES', all caps. You'll get the very best pricing to see what inplayLIVE is all about. Alright. On today's show, a sports agent writes an op ed in the New York Times. There's fears of a betting tax contagion, And this is June. What does sports betting look like in this month? Alright.

Shane Mercer [00:01:14]:

I'm your host, Shane Mercer, and as always joined by Andrew Pace, the founder of inplayLIVE. Pace, how are you, buddy? Doing great, Shane. Good to see you as always. I I wanna kick things off here with this sort of interesting op ed that I saw in the New York Times, authored by a guy named Lee Steinberg. He's a sports agent, a well known longtime sports agent. He's represented the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Troy Aikman, Manny Ramirez, just to name a few. And the title of his article is sports betting is a ticking time bomb, and he's essentially arguing that it's integrity that's going to get blown up. So in this article, he essentially argues that legal sports betting is going to ruin the integrity of professional sports.

Shane Mercer [00:02:02]:

He's saying, you know, it already is. He's pointing to Johntai Porter and the Shohei Ohtani scandals. Also mentioned, that the MLB is now investigating Ohtani's former teammate, David Fletcher, who is now part of the Braves organization. So so he's being investigated for placing wagers with the same bookie that Ohtani's interpreter was using, you know, in this article. You know, he also makes reference to the 1919 World Series pace. I don't know how familiar you are with baseball history, but this was the Chicago Black Sox scandal, in which, the White Sox players allegedly helped fix the World Series. So it's a sort of famous fix there. You know, he makes the case, you know, that with so much of the sports economy now revolving and sort of being integrated with the betting, companies that we're just gonna see this erosion of integrity.

Shane Mercer [00:03:01]:

You know, he believes the leagues need to intervene. But what's interesting is that in this piece, he doesn't So what do you think, Paste? Are you do do you think that that sports betting, you know, has the potential to ruin the integrity of our big professional leagues?

Andrew Pace [00:03:24]:

So the world's collapsing. Yes. Everything's falling apart. AI robots are gonna kill us. No one can agree on politics. You know, the world's burning. Sports betting's ruined. Sports are ruined.

Andrew Pace [00:03:37]:

Like, so much is, like, clickbait media fear mongering and all that kind of stuff. You know, like a really good example of the whole fear of e commerce was like, oh, Amazon's gonna run every other store in the world basically out of business. Yeah. And just completely ignoring the fact that the it hasn't made an impact on retail. Of course, it has. So just completely ignoring the fact that, like, people actually wanna go try clothes on sometimes and, like, go to the mall with their friends or, you know, go to the mall on a rainy day, and then you pop into a brick and mortar store and actually potentially buy something instead of buying it online. Like, there's there's a place in the marketplace for, like, a whole series of different, technological advances, and then a whole series of ways that, I guess, the old school or past way is gonna, you know, continue to be present and be be of demand, for lack of a better term. I mean, you kinda said it in the article, like, since 1919, this shit's been happening.

Andrew Pace [00:04:38]:

So legalized sports betting, all of a sudden it's exploded, like every game's rigged and like this whole psychology of, everyone blaming someone else for, like, the reason that they lost. I think the the whole mindset of, a certain ref favoring a certain team or a certain player that's got a motive outside of his team's motive, the list goes on and on and on, is it lacks ownership. It's it's putting it's putting your wager and the the bet that you took, in someone else's hands and it justifies why it lost because there's no way you could have lost on your own. Like, there's no way you could have picked a losing, you know, side of a side of a game. It's it's nuts. So it exists. It exists since 1919. You know, do we have all the details? No.

Andrew Pace [00:05:35]:

Is there an argument that could be made that, you know, the mob running casinos in Vegas and sportsbooks, having a greater influence than, like, say, a legalized regulated landscape, a 100%. Sports betting has been legalized in North America since 2018. So here we are 6 years later saying it's now gonna ruin it, wouldn't it already been ruined? And then like with what we do at inplayLIVE with live betting, it's like could that affect us? Sure. Has it? Maybe. Do I care? Like, no. You know? I don't know. When you're wagering when you're wagering live, it's based on what's already happening. So I find that if you were to make an argument that the game was rigged from the beginning, you would have seen it happening on the screen, and you could have adjusted to it based on what you're what you are watching.

Andrew Pace [00:06:27]:

So I don't know. I think the whole doom and gloom message with no solution is just a total cop out move. And, yeah, If regulators are looking to make this landscape clean, and by the way, this was one of the biggest reasons people were saying that sports betting shouldn't be legalized because they said that this would now happen more, but they went through with it anyways. And also the whole nil stuff in college football, they said that that would totally ruin the integrity of of the game. And and of course, things like that make an impact, But, you know, we're still here. We're still watching sports. I think we had the highest viewership ever in a women's game this year. We had the most viewed Super Bowl of all time.

Andrew Pace [00:07:15]:

This NBA finals probably gonna get some pretty big traction, I think, as well. So, you know

Shane Mercer [00:07:21]:

Yeah. Yeah. You know, you're right. Like, interest in sports and people watching has definitely, you know, skyrocketed in a lot of areas, especially in in sort of sportswear. You know, historically, people weren't watching, like, you know, women's basketball, for example, as sort of, the most sort of, you know, the one that's kind of out there right now in our in our faces, and we kind of look to as as an example of that. I I guess I'm wondering though, you know, does he have a point in in maybe thinking that we're going to see more pro athletes get caught up in these sort of scandals. And, you know, does the league need to do something about the way it restricts players and how they can how they can bet. And I know that they you know, different leagues already have these restrictions in place, but I'm wondering if maybe, you know, what might a solution be if there even is a problem here?

Andrew Pace [00:08:14]:

Right. So, like, as a general statement, like, the Calvin Ridley thing in the NFL, the guy was making parlays on other teams. It wasn't even it wasn't anything that he could influence, and he lost. Shohei Ohtani thing, it's his interpreter. Right? That's what we're saying it is. Yeah. Did the guy win or lose? He lost, like, freaking years of Shohei's salary.

Shane Mercer [00:08:35]:

Yeah. It was like 40,000,000 or something.

Andrew Pace [00:08:37]:

So we're we're not necessarily talking about guys winning a bunch of money here, you know? So like if if anyone does need to get involved, I think it's the leagues themselves. Yeah. And and at the end of the day, like, as we all know, you know, if you have Ohtani who now lost his interpreter as his bettor and he still wants to make a bet, do you think he'll be able to go place a bet somewhere? Like, I'm pretty sure he can get someone to place a bet for him. I I'm pretty confident that that he he's gonna be able to do that. So the sportsbooks, there's not much that they can do. I know we talked about it on a different episode where they only offer certain sides of bets, which would just be frickin' disgusting for the bettor. But it is the leagues and the way they crack down on it and how they handle it I think needs to be pretty severe, because I actually, you know, I was kinda talking all gloom and doom there, but if if the league does get involved and you do have a guy that has been proven to be betting, the punishment should be pretty harsh, because separately of all of that, it does, if it is like what Johntae Porter was doing, it is it does affect the integrity of the game. So, it does happen, I'm not gonna sit here and say it doesn't happen.

Andrew Pace [00:09:58]:

I just think that like as a general statement, the leagues aren't plagued with it. Players show up, they make an insane amount of money on their salaries and on their endorsements, and they play to win, and that integrity has been baked into sports since day 1. Are you telling me separate of gambling there aren't times where you're gonna have a few players on the team that just don't wanna be there. A team that just didn't make the playoffs and still has to play a regular season game that's like, fuck this, I'd just rather go home right now, like, their motives are in question. Right? So there's always gonna be, motivational changes from game to game and from person to person. 1 person is fulfilling their life's purpose on a team, the other person might be getting a paycheck, and you're gonna have that in any organization anywhere you go. Right? So, you know, motivations are always in questions. One of the ways that we make money at inplayLIVE is is figuring out what those motivations are in certain circumstances and then capitalizing on them, based on the discrepancy there.

Andrew Pace [00:11:01]:

So, yeah. Come down with a harsh punishment from the league. Maybe maybe a a punishment so harsh that it doesn't even seem fair, set an example. And a guy like Ohtani has immunity because he's Shohei Ohtani. He's like the best player in baseball. He's the face of the league. He's the face of international fans that otherwise would not be there, right? You know, Ichiro Suzuki, Shohei Ohtani, like they bring in fans by the 1,000,000. Right? If they put that aside and they said, hey, buddy.

Andrew Pace [00:11:36]:

You were involved in this. It's your guy. He was your responsibility. You're done. Like, you know, it would really send a message. It would, I don't know if I agree with it. I'm just saying that, you know, if you take harsh and extreme action, you might find that, you know, a guy who is making a great paycheck goes, I don't wanna risk this. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:11:59]:

We we've also seen from the leagues that that they don't always necessarily, think about sports betting as a top priority, and they don't necessarily know, everything that the books are doing as we sort of saw from from Gary Bettman a few months ago, you know, not knowing about about sportsbooks limiting players. And I imagine that, you know, in a lot of ways, the sports betting side of things is is just sort of, you know, just another issue in the pile of things that that leagues and commissioners have to deal with. It will be interesting to see, though, what they do because I I think if if there's any point in here that may made by, by by this agent, Leigh Steinberg, it's that I think we can expect to see more instances of players doing things in the sports betting realm that the league says they shouldn't be doing. And and we probably will eventually have to see some kind of crackdown in in the various leagues. So that'll be sort of something to to kind of watch for.

Andrew Pace [00:12:56]:

Well, Sean, one of the things that you just you just mentioned there is, like, hey, it's June. Right? Well, what do we see in June in the NFL? What do we see in May in the NFL quite a bit? We off like crime is up in the NFL. We see players that get into trouble in the off season.

Shane Mercer [00:13:10]:

Yeah. A lot of players doing stupid stuff. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:13:13]:

And people are like, oh, you know, what do you expect? Like, you know, they're not in they're not they're not with their team right now. They're more likely to to act out kind of thing or they're they're they're young and have too much money that they know what to do with, so they go off and do stupid things, or Superman syndrome, or they think they're invincible, or whatever the case may be. And obviously some pretty serious stuff has happened over the years, like obviously Henry Ruggs being a recent one. But like put that lens now with betting being legalized, like shit is going to keep happening. It it it might be betting related, it might not be, it'll happen in all arenas, and and that's just the nature of of human beings. So you could be like, oh, create a harsh punishment like I just said. You know, peep the harsh the the Henry Ruggs is like in jail for life. He still went out and and what happened happened.

Andrew Pace [00:14:03]:

Right? So like shit is still gonna happen. That's that's just the reality of of humanity. Right?

Shane Mercer [00:14:09]:

Yep. Yeah. And we'll we'll see people continue to to sort of, you know, jeopardize their careers, even even if it is for, you know, a negative EV, you know, 10 10 light parlay or something. Right? It's, like, just something totally stupid. But, yeah, you're right. We're probably guaranteed to continue to see that kinda that kinda stuff. Okay. I don't wanna stay all doom and gloom, but this is sort of a little bit of doom and gloom from the sportsbooks point of view, and an update on a topic we touched on last week.

Shane Mercer [00:14:39]:

So we talked about taxation in the state of Illinois. Well, Illinois has upped their tax, to 40% at least for, DraftKings and FanDuel, and those 2 sportsbooks have something like 90% of the market share in the state when it comes to, sports betting and, online sports betting. So they're they're they're seeing their tax rate in that state go up to 40%. The state's also raising the minimum tax for low volume sportsbooks to 20%. So it's a it's a tiered tax system when it comes to sportsbooks in the state of Illinois. Ohio also raising its tax rate, from 10% to 20%. And, in the article I was reading, a Sportico article which sort of looks at all things, in the business of the sports world. That that's kind of the the nature of the publication.

Shane Mercer [00:15:31]:

They they quote this one analyst, who's saying that, you know, Wall Street is, you know, is saying that states see sports betting as an easy path to increase tax revenue, and there's a contagion risk. That that that term is coming from, Benjamin Shelley, a UBS betting stocks analyst, warning of this contagion risk that other tax hungry states are gonna see states moving their tax rates up, and they're gonna wanna move theirs up as well. And, you know, they're they're saying that, you know, it's gonna be bad for the operators. Now the only possible good side is that the operators may be allowed to open up more online and mobile casino games, which could potentially, you know, be be more profitable for the operators. But this idea of a tax contagion risk, pace, do you think this is something that that the sportsbooks should be worried about? Yes. Yeah. Why?

Andrew Pace [00:16:37]:

Well, if we talk about, you know, the Massachusetts stuff where they're talking about not limiting players, that's not good for the book. And if that rolls off state by state, that's gonna make them less profitable. If the books have higher taxes to pay and it works in one state and they go, why can't we do that here? Ohio did it. Why don't we? Illinois did it. Why don't we? That could snowball as well. The pub the public nature of the Massachusetts hearing leads to the potential for if those operators then show up and expose all their practices, then all the other states seeing that, and then that snowballing, as well, or becoming a contagion. Okay. Right? So yeah, I think I think it's definitely a factor.

Andrew Pace [00:17:19]:

I just I find the the world is so fucked up, in so many ways, and I know we're talking like, oh, it's all gloom and doom, and then I'm like, this place is fucked. Well, the reason why I say it is because you have a revenue stream that does not exist. There's an illegal offshore market where 1,000,000,000 of dollars are being wagered. No one wants you to legalize this stuff because the potential problems that it could have on on the area in which it's legalized. It gets legalized because you kinda take this mindset of it's happening anyways and we might as well capitalize on the tax dollars. So now you have a new channel of tax revenue coming into the government. And rather than being like, oh this is great, we're getting 20% of the book's profits here as tax revenue, You go, let's up it to 50. Like, you know, you just press a button and you're like, give me more money.

Andrew Pace [00:18:13]:

Yeah. It's just bullshit. Yeah. It It's bullshit.

Shane Mercer [00:18:17]:

Yeah. You know, if you're if you're an operator, you're probably looking at this, like, yeah. They're thinking exactly, yeah. That's complete bullshit. How do you go and, you know, ramp it up that quickly, you know, that amount? And and, you know, we've seen too that these, lot of these sportsbooks aren't aren't, you know, aren't profitable yet. So are they you know, just because they're raking in, bringing in a lot of, revenue in terms of of, you know, betting dollars from from any particular jurisdiction. The the sportsbooks themselves are still struggling to to turn a profit. And if they gotta start paying, you know I know that New York is at is at 51% or something.

Shane Mercer [00:18:55]:

So, you know, this this tax rate in Illinois kinda gets a little closer to that, and and Pennsylvania is up there as as we mentioned last week in the in the high thirties. So, you know, I I don't know that they can afford it, especially if it's happening in every state. Right?

Andrew Pace [00:19:10]:

Yeah. And I think that there's a lot of things that pushes the player back offshore. We've talked about that a lot, like what does all of this lead to? It leads to the player going back offshore, it leads to the player going back to a local bookie, it leads a player to the quote illegal methods of wagering. Well what about the sportsbooks? Like they're gonna go back to Curacao, let's just say fuck Illinois, like, you know, we we'll we'll operate, we'll operate in the gray market and and and operate to jurisdictions that we don't have to pay such obscure amounts of tax to. Yeah. I've you know, survival is is important and when there's someone a power that has that level of control that just presses a button. And meanwhile, I always find it ironic because the worst run businesses on the planet as a general statement are governments. Like they don't handle money properly.

Andrew Pace [00:20:07]:

They go into huge amounts of debts. They spend frivolously. They spend money on things that most people probably wouldn't prioritize, and and they run out, and then they just press a button and say give us more money at at the businesses expense or at the individuals expense. And sometimes when you look at the flow of money and how it just there's like these compounded taxes being put on it from the corp corporation paying it to the individual paying it, and then the individual going to buy their goods and services and then them paying again on top. It it it's compounding all around us at all times, and there's a reason for it. We have to pay for health care and infrastructure and roads and all these other things that are required. But, again, from a business standpoint, they're not run properly, again, as the general statement there.

Shane Mercer [00:20:55]:

Yeah. Yeah. I think I think a lot of people And they have the power to do this. Yeah. Yeah. You know, the governments, you know, government spending in so many different areas, so many countries and jurisdictions could get completely out of control. But I don't wanna get too far down into the into the political world here because, you know, things can get a little tense, especially with an election, taking place in the United States this year.

Andrew Pace [00:21:19]:

Left wing, right wing, it doesn't matter. I think most people can can agree that that there's a lot of things that they don't agree on.

Shane Mercer [00:21:26]:

Yeah. Exactly. And, you know, the government will always be there asking for more money, and the operators are are pulling in huge amounts of of revenue. They'll they'll be there with their hands out and and looking for more all the time. Yeah. Okay. Let's get to the side the beating the books side of things now. Pace, this is June.

Shane Mercer [00:21:47]:

We've just entered a new month. And, traditionally, I think at inplayLIVE pace, this has sort of been part of the downtime of your really kinda getting, you know, summer begins in this month of June, and we sort of get into these dark days of summer. And and they're kind of just around the corner here. But things aren't necessarily as slow or maybe they won't be as slow this year as they have in past years, I wanna kick things off with a conversation around baseball because, PACE, we are just coming off of a weekend stream, a Sunday baseball only stream at inplayLIVE, which, is is pretty unusual. I think this was the first one of of the season. Right? That was sort of just with a a baseball focus. And, I gotta say, the team on the stream absolutely crushed it. I think what was it? 4 for 4 or 5 for 5 on on some of the main market plays that were called on stream.

Shane Mercer [00:22:48]:

It was it was really impressive to to watch. And I think anybody, you know, who isn't a part of inplayLIVE, now might be a good time to join because you can catch up on these sorts of strategies that are being deployed throughout the summer while learning and preparing yourself for the football season and the really sort of busy sports season that kinda takes place from September through to the end of March. But, if you are already a part of inplayLIVE, Pace, for people who are members already, they're probably wondering, and they've been here a little while. They might be wondering, hey. What's going on behind the scenes that that, you know, could be leading to more, potential baseball opportunities?

Andrew Pace [00:23:25]:

So are you asking me that, Shane?

Shane Mercer [00:23:27]:

Yeah. I am.

Andrew Pace [00:23:28]:

Well, you were on the stream yesterday. Right?

Shane Mercer [00:23:30]:

I was.

Andrew Pace [00:23:31]:

Yeah. So, yeah, we we killed it. It's a small sample size. Right? And But I I haven't I've been pretty open about my baseball journey.

Andrew Pace [00:23:40]:

So i'll kinda touch on that a little bit. As a recreational bettor, always fun to have some summer action. You know, you're at the pool, at the beach, on the boat, you know, you get a nice refresh in there, maybe a couple run lines on a parlor, always good fun. Definitely negative EV, and expected losses is in in the agenda there. And then when we launched inplayLIVE, I think naturally what happens is if you have a betting group that's focused on winning and you love a certain sport, you are now going to look at that certain sport differently than you looked at it before. So in my case specifically, we had the COVID bubble season of NBA and NHL playoffs, and then the fanless NFL and college football season starting. And then we had a weird baseball season that year where baseball wasn't as affected as the other sports because, you know, it's it's outdoors, and they just went with, like, no fans. And and a lot of the baseball season it was affected, but a lot of the baseball season was played.

Andrew Pace [00:24:56]:

But we had playoff baseball at the same time as we usually do. Well, for me, you know, playoff baseball's at a time where football is more of a focus for me. I don't really care that much about following playoff baseball, you know, through, October November. Well, a couple of the guys in the group, you know, started making some money betting on baseball in that baseball playoff season. So much so that there was a couple strategies that I was jumping on myself that that were really profitable in that playoffs. Astros, Dodgers comes to mind, a few few different bets we took there. And, that rolled us into the next baseball season where I got pretty excited about the regular season because of the profits that we had in the playoffs. And, you know, a couple couple guys in the group that that had done had done really well, and and I just got crushed.

Andrew Pace [00:25:51]:

Like I got crushed. I went into baseball thinking to myself, like okay, I'm gonna make money this year, I'm making money on all the other sports. Let's just roll in those same unit sizes into this new season and and, and go from there. Yeah. Like, I'm guys, I'm talking multiple 6 figures. I think I lost like 300 g's that summer. Wow. And and I did it in a way that number 1, it was within my bankroll at the time.

Andrew Pace [00:26:20]:

Number 2, I did it with, like, this belief, like, we can do this. And it was a a little strange because a lot of it for me was just, following, and not learning. Like, I was not learning. I was mostly just following. And I also too, there might be people that had a great summer that summer that I'm referencing. I wasn't in for all of it, you know, so I'm coming in and out. Yeah. I I got I got hit pretty hard.

Andrew Pace [00:26:50]:

Had that all back and more, you know, within within a a month or 2 of of that football season. So it's like you don't need to there's no tiny violins, over here, you know. And then the the next season I approach things, definitely much more cautiously and, you know, still didn't necessarily do well. And that led me to last summer where I wasn't like, okay, this is going to be how look like I'm in, I'm making money on baseball, all this kind of no, it wasn't like that. It was like, this is tough, and I know it's tough, and I'm gonna be here as a member of this team and I'm gonna see what I can do where, when, how I can do it. And and this is also years of collaboration at this stage, referencing last summer. And, I had a great baseball season last summer. I was making, I would say, 3 to 5 bets a week and I got limited on 2 different books throughout the summer and I profited about $30,000 And a big reason why I profited, again, no tiny violence here, only $30,000.

Andrew Pace [00:27:56]:

Woah. Got confetti raining down on me on the broadcast here.

Shane Mercer [00:28:02]:

You got a party going on.

Andrew Pace [00:28:03]:

You made 30 grand you made 30 grand confetti started pouring on me. But but, the reason it was only $30 was because I wasn't betting heavy on on anything. I think probably the biggest wager I made would have been about $2,000. Like, I really was very cautious, which this MLB season, I've already wagered quite a bit more than that on some of the bets that I've I've called. But last season kinda set this season up where we go, hey, like, let's not pump this and make it sound like it's gonna be this great, you know, amazing time of year. And I don't even wanna have that message come across now. But let's look at some of the things that we built off of last summer and see if we can hone those in. And that came down to like just building a couple things, looking at a lot of data and compiling it over all of April and all of May.

Andrew Pace [00:28:58]:

And then going, hey. Maybe we have something here. Let's start poking at it and see where it goes. And, that led to yesterday, which again is a small sample size, but like you said, I think we have 5 for 5 on main market wagers. And, I just had a tremendous Sunday that has caught me. I we're we're recording this on Monday. It got me really excited for tomorrow night to to stream baseball. So there's a couple big nights of baseball where you get a lot of games in a short window, and what's great about that is with a high volume sport, it does allow you to be selective.

Andrew Pace [00:29:33]:

Where maybe you do have 10 or 18 games on in a day and you only end up making a couple of wagers in that entire day. You're looking at everything. You're evaluating everything. But, where the star where the sort of stars align, where you actually do get theoretical value on on a on a great value wager, yeah, you you might only get a couple.

Shane Mercer [00:29:56]:

Well, I'm I'm looking forward to to maybe tuning in for some of these baseball streams throughout the summer there. You know, you mentioned Tuesday. You know, baseball, Tuesday nights and Sunday midday. Right? Those are those are 2 days out of the week that I think are pretty consistently good baseball days. And so, you know, if you and the team are gonna be streaming those days, I'm gonna try to make them a priority and tune in for for as much as I can because, I'm yeah. I'm just, you know, baseball not a big part of my betting portfolio, at least for the past, you know, little little while, year year and a half or so. But, you know, interested to to just learn and grow and and sort of see what you guys are doing and and kind of, you know, pick up on on what you guys are putting down if it's working and and sort of, you know, roll it into my toolbox and something that, you know, I can I can sort of practice this year and then maybe build on on next year? Yeah. But but really kinda looking forward to that.

Andrew Pace [00:30:48]:

Yeah. So I think there's there's actually a message here that I could send out to the betting community that might be of value as well. There's a lot of, like, pregame baseball guys and they will be the first to tell you that the edge in baseball sometimes doesn't even make it worth it. They'll be like, oh, you know, like, did I make money over the summer? Yeah. I did. But it was a real grind. A lot of time, a lot of work, a lot of energy.

Shane Mercer [00:31:13]:

A lot of them hace huge bankrolls too to to justify their very small edges. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:31:18]:

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. And and so much so that they go even with the money that they did make, it was so much work that they would have rather just taken the time off. Take that approach into the live menu, into the live game. So like there was a few of the calls yesterday, Shane, like I didn't say this to anyone, but they were games that I like loved pre game. I loved them.

Andrew Pace [00:31:43]:

And then I took that knowledge into the livestream without having money on them yet and then got to make a decision. Contrary to that, there was it wasn't a baseball stream, but we were focusing on some playoff sports where there was a baseball game coming in, and it was a game I loved pre game that went the completely opposite way, and we ended up capitalizing on that game as well because of the fact that I didn't have money on it, I waited for live, and I was able to let that pre game bias go based on what was going on in that particular game. And in in all those examples, we happen to want to win those those wagers. So my advice would be if you do really like a game and you do have a couple question marks about that game, let it play out a little bit. And yes, there's gonna be a time, you know, where you're like, oh my god, you know, they're up 4 nothing already. I should've I should've bet them. You let that go and you just don't worry about it. And I always like to say, like, even if a team is winning, the value on them is still there.

Andrew Pace [00:32:50]:

And I'll give you an example of what I mean by that in another sport. So let's just pretend that, like, Ohio State is playing an underdog like a Maryland or someone that's in their division that they would typically just obliterate. And for whatever reason, you thought that plus 21a half on their opponent was a good line, one that would cover at a rate that provided theoretical value. And you go into that game having not wagered that pregame line, and Maryland's actually competing with Ohio State. And it's a tight game or or maybe it's not a super tight game, but, you know, they're play they're they're they're playing football with them. It isn't just one of these completely typical, like, one way Alabama or I Ohio State type games. Whether it's the main markets or some of the minor markets, those opportunities, even though the game, even though you might have wanted that pre game line in, there are still opportunities to capitalize on it live in real time. And it puts you more in tune with the game.

Andrew Pace [00:34:00]:

So if it turns, like this morning I watched Novak Djokovic be down 2 sets to 1 and down a break in that 4th set where he's about to lose the match. And then you watch him break, break back, and then challenge him on the next serve where you're like, okay, Novak's turning it on now. That's kind of like a similar example where Novak is like an Ohio state where, you know, you see them just taking over. Since you're in tune with it live, maybe you can bet on the Novak or the Ohio State in that particular case, or maybe you go, oh shoot, like I actually am glad I didn't end up betting this pre game because I'm now watching this team who was who was competing with this favorite and doing really well. I'm watching them just derail and I can see it in real time and that's presenting an opportunity here or that's presenting a great leave where I'm like okay, I'm so glad that I placed that bet. So take your data, take your information, bring it live into the matchup, and don't be afraid to let go of any and all bias, that you had pregame towards that team or event and and just just run with it from there.

Shane Mercer [00:35:10]:

Yeah. No. Great great advice there. Absolutely. And, you know, it's a a great leave can often feel as awesome as a win. That's an actual win knowing that you made a a great decision by not betting something. Okay. I wanna talk about a few other opportunities that we're gonna get this month, and these are championship opportunities.

Shane Mercer [00:35:29]:

We've got the NHL, Stanley Cup final, and we've got the NBA finals both taking place this month. Let's start with with hockey. Just quickly, what can we expect from the Rangers and Florida, and and what are you sort of hoping to see from the series?

Andrew Pace [00:35:49]:

Well, you said Rangers and Florida, so I expect Florida to advance to this Stanley Cup final.

Shane Mercer [00:35:55]:

I've got Rangers on my there. It was because it's been Rangers in Florida all this time Yeah. For the last little while. Yeah. The Oilers and Florida, Canadian team in the in the final.

Andrew Pace [00:36:05]:

Yeah. I I really don't know. It was such a weird game to watch the Oilers just get absolutely pummeled and win the game.

Shane Mercer [00:36:12]:

Yeah. Just story on shots.

Andrew Pace [00:36:15]:

Yeah. Nothing would surprise me. I think Florida going back to back to the cup final, I mean, losing both would just be devastating to them. I can't imagine. So they're gonna be freaking hungry, and they've been hungry. You can see it all play us how just how hungry they've been. From a betting standpoint, I'm I'm hoping for a lot of Panthers leads late in games, but we'll we'll see we'll see what comes of it. Honestly, it's like the Super Bowl.

Andrew Pace [00:36:42]:

It gets so hyped up, everyone's tuned in, everyone knows who's playing, And, you know, from a betting standpoint, it's extremely low volume now. You know? You you might get excited for a game that you end up making no bets on at all.

Shane Mercer [00:36:54]:

Mhmm. And, you know, on the other side of things, on the basketball side of things, we've got the Mavs and Celtics. I'm hoping, that we just have a nice tight series, you know, because basketball has had a lot of, blowout series, this playoffs. It'd be nice to see the final really sort of become a nail biter. Go to go to 7 games. You know, let's get some some close games all the way through. That that's what I'm hoping for. Pace, I imagine that you're kinda hoping the same.

Andrew Pace [00:37:22]:

Yeah. And, I mean, like, the Mavericks are getting no credit again, and it's just fucking insane to me. So they went in the West is better than the East. That's not some new thing. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:37:31]:

It's been a long time.

Andrew Pace [00:37:33]:

The West is better than the East, period. They took out the one seed in the Thunder, and they had to play them on the road. They took out the Wolves who took out the defending champions,

Andrew Pace [00:37:47]:

And they had to take them out on the road.

Shane Mercer [00:37:49]:

Who arguably have one of the most exciting players in basketball in in Anthony Edwards.

Andrew Pace [00:37:53]:

Yeah. But, I mean, Luka Doncic is better than everybody. Right? And now he's plus 7 heading into Boston in game 1. I don't know what's gonna happen. They're just getting no credit. Right? So if it's a tight tight series, that means there's probably gonna be a lot of value on the Mavericks throughout it. Like, based on the the Mavericks are are playing paying over 3 point o or plus 200 to win game 1. Based on that line, it'll probably be a pick them in Dallas at home.

Andrew Pace [00:38:23]:

So Boston might be a slight favorite in Dallas. Mhmm. And Mhmm. I have no idea who's gonna win, but if if are you telling me Boston's gonna win for nothing? Like, I think there's gonna be some some value on Dallas throughout the series.

Shane Mercer [00:38:39]:

Yeah. Yeah. I hope so. You know, you get them down a couple points late in the game, you could have a tremendous number on them, and all you need is a Luka 3 ball.

Andrew Pace [00:38:46]:

Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:38:46]:

You know? We we could be looking at those kind of situations. Yeah. Alright. Other sports taking place this month. We got the WNBA in action pace. I know that people at in PlayLife have, been some of the pros have been calling, and a lot of people have been betting on the WNBA. And I think you included. You've been you've been getting some wagers in on the WNBA.

Shane Mercer [00:39:05]:

What what can we expect through this month? Just kinda more of the same, I think?

Andrew Pace [00:39:09]:

Yeah. So I'm like I mentioned being a follower in baseball a few years ago, I'm a follower in the WNBA. I'm just kinda listening and watching right now. It's my 1st year with it. That's really all I I can say. The guys that have been calling it have have done a great job, and yesterday, swept that as well. So, you know, yeah. I hope hope to continue to follow and watch my bankroll grow from it.

Shane Mercer [00:39:31]:

Yeah. Yeah. Great. If you, you know, if anybody wants more basketball, the WNBA is there. It's not, you know, as high volume as the NBA, but, you know, you got a you got a 4 game slate, you know, on a day. That's a that's a pretty good WNBA slate, and you mix it in with everything else that that that's taken place out there in the world of sports. And, you know, you can have some have yourself some some really great opportunities. Anything else to watch for in the month of June? Pace, anything else you're keeping an eye on?

Andrew Pace [00:39:56]:

Are you kidding me, man?

Shane Mercer [00:39:58]:

I gotta know where you're going with this.

Andrew Pace [00:40:00]:

We've got the 3rd no, we've got the 4th most popular football league Wow. In North America

Shane Mercer [00:40:08]:

4th most.

Andrew Pace [00:40:09]:

Kicking off on Thursday. Number 1 is the NFL. Number 2 is collegiate football. Number 3 is the UFL. Number 4 is the CFO. We're still seeing the UFL? The the UF the UFL definitely attracts bigger crowds. I think they have some some big numbers in their in their in their stands. But yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:40:28]:

I love betting on the CFL throughout the summer. I think there's a lot of things that they could do differently that would improve their league as a whole. I think the the they need to play fewer games to take to prevent some injuries, and I think they need to stop competing, with the NFL college football, MLB playoffs, the start of NHL, the start of NBA with their end of season. If you told me that we were a couple weeks into CFL already right now and the season wrapped up at the end of August or or 1st week of September right before the NFL. I think a lot more people would follow it in and and could see a season, from cover to cover. But, yeah, regardless of that, great sport to bet on and line discrepancies are rampant in this league. So, you know, when you're looking at 1 or 2 different sportsbooks, you might see some some pretty crazy opportunities, when you're wagering on the CFL. So, and it it is exciting.

Andrew Pace [00:41:30]:

It is a really exciting league. The way that the rules are are designed is so that the game never ends. And what I mean by that is, if if it's even a 3 score game we saw it last year, teams can be down 21 with, like, 2 minutes left and still win the game, with the the way the clock works and everything. So it can be pretty electric at the end of games.

Shane Mercer [00:41:48]:

When does that season kick off? Thursday. Thursday. Holy crap. Jesus Christ. It's it's upon us. It's it's coming. Alright. Well, there we go.

Shane Mercer [00:41:56]:

So, you know, really, it's not as slow as maybe we think it is when it comes to this time of year. There's a lot going on, a lot to be excited for.

Andrew Pace [00:42:05]:

Right. Well, betting on sports is is dependent on sports. Right? And betting is, it's seasonal and it's cyclical. Right? But it it changes, lockouts, strikes, COVID bubbles, all this stuff affects it. But I find that there are so many different times of the year where I say to myself, gosh, I love this time of year. So, you know, if you call the start of the year September, kickoff for NFL, you go, gosh, I love this time of year, and I don't think it needs much explanation. But one of the reasons that I absolutely love that time of year is because Tuesday nights, Wednesday nights, and Friday nights tend to be pretty chill and and provide great mid week balance. You fast forward to October and you got the puck dropping in NHL and the tip-off in the NBA.

Andrew Pace [00:42:57]:

So you go, gosh, we got all these other sports now to bet on. I love this time of year. November, you throw college basketball into the mix both men's and women's. Now you are in the busiest time of year. So from November until the end until the playoffs of football, that is where it is, like, full on. You you sometimes can't even believe that you are taking time off because you're like, oh my god. I'm missing this night, which every night is just nonstop sports and is insane. So there's a beauty in that.

Andrew Pace [00:43:32]:

Then you get into the NFL playoffs. Like, what more could you ask for there? And then, obviously, you transition into, March Madness. Then for March Madness, you transition into the playoffs of the NHL and the NBA. MLB starts, the CFL starts, and then you have tennis and golf season. So, you know, when you when by the time June rolls around, I go, gosh. I love this time of year because it's the summer and it it is a little bit lower volume. But separately of what we've touched on this summer, there are some other sports people love to bet on, like Aussie Rules Football, Cricket, and, we have the Olympics this summer.

Shane Mercer [00:44:07]:

Yeah. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:44:07]:

So we're gonna get more high level basketball with, like, men's Olympics and then all the other, Olympic events that that can, of course, be wagered on as well. And then you blink and it's August, and August is actually the most underrated time of the year because the NFL preseason is so freaking amazing to bet on. So all of a sudden that's that's 12 months of of betting. So you have to continually have balance with yourself and you have to continually remind yourself of the benefits of the current time of year that you're in, from a betting standpoint because you don't wanna take any of it for granted. You wanna enjoy the journey.

Shane Mercer [00:44:44]:

You know, I'm glad you brought up the Olympics. That's sort of one that we'll have to look at a little bit, later in the summer. Because maybe we'll do a whole show on on Olympics and then Olympic style batting and have a conversation about that. Yeah. And I'm glad you brought it up because it jogged my mind on another big sporting event taking place this summer. That is the euro. Yeah. I mean, how could we be remiss to to not mention the euro, which I think begins later this month? Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:45:07]:

It begins later this month, and that's gonna be awesome.

Andrew Pace [00:45:10]:

Imagine being a sports fan. You're listening to this podcast and you're like, anything else going on in June pace? I'm like, the CFL,

Andrew Pace [00:45:21]:

They are like these idiots didnt even bring up the Euro. Like, oh my god.

Shane Mercer [00:45:23]:

Yeah. Yeah. The most watched

Andrew Pace [00:45:25]:

The most watched event of the year, we don't even touch on.

Shane Mercer [00:45:28]:

We we don't even touch on. So we'll have to we'll have to talk about more about that as as the month rolls on and as we get closer, to being of that tournament. So a lot going on, at inplayLIVE. It is the summer, but it is not necessarily slow. Still a very, very busy time of year and and lots to kind of, participate in and and learn about if you're, you know, just, wanting to to add some add some tools to your tool belt in in the sports betting world. There there's a lot of options, a lot of opportunities there, and, we will be with you through it all here on this podcast. And next week, do we ever have an amazing guest for you? This is one you are not gonna want amiss. A former CEO of a sports book and a true trailblazer in this space.

Shane Mercer [00:46:14]:

Really looking forward to having this guest on. I'm not gonna tell you who it is, but it is a big one coming at you next week. So really looking forward to that pace. Anything to leave our audience with before we say goodbye? Keep beating those books. Keep beating those books. Take it easy, buddy. Cheers. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines.

Shane Mercer [00:46:33]:

Remember to like, download, and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below. And if you wanna join and play live, use promo code 'BEHINDTHELINES'.