Episode 80

GosuThune [00:00:00]:

There's money in burning buildings. Right? So, everybody's running out of the burning building. You should run into the burning building. And a lot of that's that's something that a lot of people in the investment world will tell you as well. Right? Like, when everybody tells you a company's failing, that's when you should buy it. And so, you know, like, the Vikings are 4 and o. I might have bet them to miss the playoffs this morning. You know.

Shane Mercer [00:00:35]:

Hello, and welcome to another episodes of Behind the Lines now powered by Pinnacle and the only podcast purifying the sports betting industry. Remember to like, download, subscribe, follow us on all the socials @inplayLIVE. I'm your host, Shane Mercer. As always, we've got Andrew Pace, the founder of inplayLIVE, a community of like minded sports bettors dedicated to long term success. And today, we've got John Wilson joining us, better known in the inplayLIVE community as Gosu Thune, the great Gosu himself joining the show. John, how are you doing, buddy?

GosuThune [00:01:07]:

Good. How are you guys?

Shane Mercer [00:01:09]:

Good, man. Great to great to have you on. So on today's show, we're gonna be looking at ways to take a long shot and best ways to butter books, but also a little more, elaboration on the big announcement that we brought you last week as you as I mentioned off the top of the show. The this podcast is now powered by Pinnacle, and the inplayLIVE, community is going to be getting, more ingrained with Pinnacle and Pinnacle more with us. And, PACE, you've got a few details you wanna share about that. Yeah. Sure.

Andrew Pace [00:01:41]:

I mean, Pinnacle obviously saw something special in what it is that we're doing in at inplayLIVE. And, for me, it's always been you know, some sportsbooks have bombarded us from time to time asking us to promote them. Yeah. So most recently was a a story, at BetBash. A a bookie contacted me, and, you know, he's like, oh, I heard about your community. Like, we basically wanna be taking, everyone's action, you know, privately, paperhead, style. I think it lasted maybe, like, a week or 2 where, you know, the guy the guy I think he blocked me at this point. Right? So we've kinda we've been bombarded by some sportsbooks, and we're very much of the mindset of working with the the sportsbooks that actually do have, stuff in place for the player, and Pinnacle's obviously at the top of the list.

Andrew Pace [00:02:31]:

Now the best part of all this has been, yeah, Pinnacle, you know, knows who we are and all that kind of stuff, but I'm starting to get some texts from some guys, you know, some guys with some information, that know stuff. And I'm just gonna leave it at that, and I think it can really benefit the whole community. So, yeah, really pumped to have Pinnacle on board. You can head over to pinnacle.comforward/inplaylive and, start to get some more of the details of of what's going on and and how Pinnacle can benefit you as a sports bettor.

Shane Mercer [00:03:00]:

That's awesome. You know? And for anybody out there who doesn't know, and I know that there are some people who who aren't maybe totally familiar with Pinnacle, but Pinnacle will not limit winners. They won't kick us off their platform. They'll allow us to play there forever. Yes. There might be a limit on the market you're playing, and depending on what kind of market that is will determine what the limit is, but you will never be limited as an individual. And so, you know, that's what we've been talking a lot on the show about recently is being limited at the individual betting level or the individual bettor, level. That's what all of the the soft books do.

Shane Mercer [00:03:37]:

That's their model, but Pinnacle doesn't operate that way. One of the few books in the world that operates on the sharp model. And so we will never get limited. You will never get limited at Pinnacle. So it's a place

Andrew Pace [00:03:48]:

where they let winners play, and and that's why, you know, they align with us. So, Shane, since you brought that up, I think it's a really good segue to one of the topics. I know you're gonna bring up the article, but I do just wanna say, I went off to the start for football this season. That was just like felt like waving a magic wand to an extent. It's like, oh my god. This is the best football season yet. And then I started running into book issues, and everyone that, you know, kinda follows my journey, our masterclass, our primers, all that kind of stuff, they know that, you know, we have ways to sort of best handle or or best approach a sportsbook that you know is gonna limit you and then, you know, what you can get out of that sportsbook, as a result of of knowing that. And I you know, we're recording this on September 30th, so as it's playing, we're into October.

Andrew Pace [00:04:37]:

But, you know, we've had 4 weeks of NFL behind us here. I have been limited on a book per day on average in September. So we're talking 30 books. Right? Like, boom, gone. And I think John can probably say something similar. And when you're dealing with that separately of, like, hey. It's a good problem. Right? You're making money.

Andrew Pace [00:04:58]:

The books don't want you there. It's a good problem. Well, these sportsbooks, when they're doing this and, obviously, this has been a theme in the podcast over the course of time since we started. But when they're doing this, they do not allow for any legroom on how they can improve. Meanwhile, I can remember firsthand. It was the 1st playoff season of NHL playoffs at inplayLIVE, and Pinnacle had a line that they just shouldn't had. And I called it out on a livestream. We hit them.

Andrew Pace [00:05:28]:

They paid us. They didn't limit the player. They changed the market. So with great sports bettors comes great information, and Pinnacle wants that information. Yes. You could be like, Pace, why are you doing this? Well, the other side of it is they're letting us play there, and they have the lowest vig on main market lines, and that is what I go, hey. If I can't beat them, that's me as a player, but if I can beat them, I know I can continue to play. And all the conversation with them, it's all about volume.

Andrew Pace [00:06:00]:

It's all about volume. If we can sit there I have a screenshot on my, on my, device right now that shows our players not I can't see players' balances, but shows how inplayLIVE has done using them since we signed up if anyone has signed up. We've made money off them, and they want more of it, and I think that is so cool.

Shane Mercer [00:06:20]:

Yeah. It's it's it's awesome. It's it's the way a sports book should be. And like you said, they're they're taking that those bets and using that as information to sharpen their lines. And on top of it, too, you mentioned the the you know, they have the lowest big out there or or among the lowest big. And so when you go and look at their odds, you're you're gonna see that, hey. The odds on this on this main market game are actually way better than a lot of the soft books out there. And so, you know, for anybody out there that is, like, you know, putting together their pregame parlays or their teasers or that sort of stuff, you know, there's a lot of good benefits to do it at a softbook that we can get into in a moment, but you're gonna get better odds at Pinnacle.

Shane Mercer [00:06:59]:

So just a suggestion, you know, if you're arguing that kind of thing. And not that I'm encouraging that, but, you know, there there can be a place and time for that. So why don't we get into some of that? So, article out over the weekend in, Bloomberg, Big, you know, business publication. And, the the title of the article was a bit sort of you know, got got me laughing a little bit, but I can I can understand it? Anyway, title is sports betting apps are even more toxic than you thought. Okay. So, you know, click on the article and I read through. And what's interesting about it is that it actually starts off by, having some quotes from some professional sports bettors. And these are sort of well known pro sports bettors that are out there, Paisley.

Shane Mercer [00:07:41]:

You might have met them at BetBash. I I I won't put their names out there, but they're in the article if anybody wants to go go and have a look. And, one of the things that they brought up was how they need to act like dGen sports bettors so that they can get a longer leash at these soft books. So they talk about, hey. When I sign up, I bet the home team, you know, from from whatever wherever they are, whatever jurisdiction they're in or whatever buddy account maybe that they're using. And, you know, they bet they bet the home team and maybe they do some home team parlays. But then they did a couple of other things that I thought were kind of interesting, and I wanna get your sort of opinions on these other sort of tactics that they're using. One of the things that they would do is, deposit, make a few bets.

Shane Mercer [00:08:28]:

You know? Maybe if they win a few, then they withdraw. Withdraw the whole balance and then redeposit again and go through that process of of depositing, pulling the money out, and then redepositing, you know, and and and sort of this process so that it makes it they say that it makes it look like, you know, they can't get enough. Right? That they just can't not have money in the account. They wanna pull their money out when they win, but then they they can't not have it back in the account, so they go to deposit it again. And, of course, these are pro sports bettors who were doing this as a tactic to get a longer leash at the book. Another thing that they did was setting an alarm and waking themselves up in the middle of the night, 2 AM, 3 AM, 4 AM, to place a bet. Just to get action in on something so that it makes it look like, you know, they can't they can't get through the night without placing a wager. Right? So that they they they are trying to make themselves look like problem gamblers.

Shane Mercer [00:09:28]:

Right? And so my god. This is how the article sort of set it up with this at the top of the story. Like, here's what these pro sports bettors are doing. Right? And it works. And so and this is the kind of thing sportsbooks want players to do, and that's where it's sort of the toxic element comes in. Right? That, hey. This is what the sportsbooks are actually looking for, and the kinds of people that they think they can take advantage of are the people who are doing these ridiculous, you know, degen, yeah, terrible gambling habits. And so I thought I thought that that was kind of interesting.

Shane Mercer [00:10:04]:

What what do you guys think about those buttering tactics? Would you try them yourselves? Do you think they work? What do you find works best for, priming a book? You know, that so that you get the most out of it. And then you go ahead with you first since you're our guest. You go ahead.

GosuThune [00:10:20]:

Oh, sure. Yeah. I mean, I think a lot of those, obviously, a lot of those things make sense, betting parlays and and betting, like, the local team. And I I always think, like, you know, taking the boosts that they offer, you know, all of those, like, just sucker things. Because a lot of those too also, like, I think if you just took the boosts, you'd probably do okay because they're boosting and maybe, you know, they're big because they're same game parlays a lot of the time. But they're more so designed to train you to make bad decisions. They're like they're training you to have a behavioral pattern that's negative value to you. Right? So whether you win or lose those boosts, there's a reason they have a max bet on them.

GosuThune [00:10:55]:

Right? They're really just trying to get you to start doing it without the boost. But I think they like when they see that. So, I mean, those things make sense. And, I mean, I know a lot of my friends who are just casual bettors. They they deposit on Saturday, bet college in NFL, and then they withdraw on Monday. And that's just that's how they operate. So I I agree that that that definitely at least for for how for, you know, how regulated sportsbooks, the ease of, you know, using your bank or PayPal or or whatever, it's just so much easier to get money in and out for there's a lot of people who don't understand cryptocurrency for using offshore books or waiting for a check-in the mail or something to get paid. So I think that especially on the regulated side, that's something that I know a lot of people definitely do.

GosuThune [00:11:33]:

So that make that makes sense to me.

Shane Mercer [00:11:34]:

Oh, that's interesting. So you know people that are you know average recreational bettors who are doing that. They're depositing Yep. And they're withdrawing, and they're depositing again and withdrawing, and it's sort of a a a standard sort of process there. Yep.

GosuThune [00:11:47]:

I would say most all of them. Really? And withdraw at least once or twice every single week. Yep.

Shane Mercer [00:11:53]:

Right. Right. That's interesting, Pase, because I think, you know, in in the past, you know, some advice has been that, hey. Maybe, you know, run up the account, don't withdraw, and kind of stay off the radar. Yeah. I have a I have a few oh, quite

Andrew Pace [00:12:05]:

a few things to say. So I think it's a great topic, number 1. Number 2, there's a entire chapter of our masterclass at inflay live dedicated to this topic. Right? It matters, and it's evolving. So if anyone ever says, oh, this is what you do or this is how you do it, it simply may have worked for them at a current point in time. Because my experience with all this stuff, it's the same as anything relating to betting on sports. There's many ways to make money from betting on sports. There's many different ways that will or will not work for you, in this department.

Andrew Pace [00:12:43]:

Now the betting, hitting a bet, and cashing out method is the degenerate betting method. There's no debating about that. Now if you take that approach to when you are doing things that maybe you do want a little bit more under the radar, that's where you can find yourself in trouble. And the reason for it is just as a general statement, when you when you do place a withdraw on a sportsbook, you're now putting in your putting yourself in a position for a potential review of your account. And I actually have a very at close close to home situation that happened to me last week with this. I was on just a hell of a run with, NorthStar Bets. They are a regulated book in Ontario. They use CAMBI lines in Ontario.

Andrew Pace [00:13:31]:

And if you access their outside of Ontario Canada site, they're licensed by the Kawanaki or whatever it is, like the Indian tribe. Their lines are the same as Hard Rock. I had just a really kinda bad run there to start. I intentionally did lose some money there, which I I do tend to do. You you play some of these parlays that we're referencing. And then I actually was like, okay. It's it's time to play. And I think I got maybe deposited $2,000.

Andrew Pace [00:13:59]:

I think I ran it up to about 12,000. I lost that 12,000, and you might be like, holy shit. $12. Well, the thing is is in the grand scheme of my unit sizing, it was just like, hey. Maybe it was only 1 or 2 bets, and I'd really scaled aggressively in that account, and and and went on to lose that money. I personally believe that that gave their trading team, whom whomever, the confidence that if I play there, eventually, I will lose, you know, losing that $12,000. I I kind of gave myself a bit of a reckless image there. K? I proceeded to run my next $2,000 deposit up to $70,000.

Andrew Pace [00:14:41]:

Now they limited me not on a sport, but on one specific market in football, where I was like, okay. They're finally starting to catch on. $70,000, I've made a lot of money betting on sports, but getting any account to 70,000, in my opinion, that was very difficult to do, and that's that was kinda like a banner account. I'm like, holy shit.

Shane Mercer [00:14:59]:

Yeah. Yeah. That's that's a lot. That's a that's a big number.

Andrew Pace [00:15:02]:

And I was kinda just like you you start you start playing these mind games with yourself when you aren't necessarily on, like, a regulated book. Yes. Again, they're regulated in Ontario, but this is not their Ontario site. I was like, you know what? I'm just gonna try a withdrawal. So I processed a withdrawal. I took my balance down from 70,000 to 60,000. So 999 to avoid getting track. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:15:24]:

Right? And the withdraw processed, I wanna say, within 30 minutes. And I was like, oh, that's so that's such a nice feeling because we all know how, you know, that can not be the case with a lot of these books that we use. And then I'm like, okay. Well, the account's still in good order. I just can't bet this one market. Let's light it up tomorrow and keep it going. Go to bet $1 bets. Right? Had I have not made that move, who's to say how much further I could have gone? They were letting me spend in $5,000 bets on that account.

Andrew Pace [00:16:01]:

So, there isn't necessarily an advantage to withdrawing. It's how you do it. It's when you do it. It's why you do it. It's where you do it. Now when you bring up the late night stuff, the reason why I laugh so hard is because if I rewind the tape to my early twenties, I can remember being out in downtown Vancouver at a nightclub 12 West and going, hey, dude. There's some freaking handball on right now. Do you wanna make plays for bets at the bar? And what we were doing was we were betting.

Andrew Pace [00:16:34]:

We didn't know the teams. We didn't know the players. We didn't know anything. We're betting on the team that just scored in hand ball hand ball to be the next team to score, which if you know the sport at all, they pretty much score on every possession. And we just it would be like 10 or $20 bets, you know, degenerate betting, and I would lose money. Like, I I'm not gonna sit here and be like, oh, I was making a bunch of money. No. I thought I'd lose a bunch of money.

Andrew Pace [00:16:59]:

But it was happening at, like, 2 AM Pacific time, you know, 5 AM EST. So when when you said that, I'm like, jeez. That's interesting. And, you know, there are definitely ways that you can do this kind of stuff where you can, yeah, slip under the radar and and make yourself look like a degenerate.

Shane Mercer [00:17:19]:

John, you ever gonna wake up in the middle of the night to bet, handball or, you know, something else overseas? What other weird sports are there? I don't know. Badminton? Pretty soon, I'm sure they'll have pickleball in the menu.

GosuThune [00:17:32]:

Yeah. Yeah. You bet some esports. Some some Korean Chinese leagues. There's a lot of that. You can actually get a lot of money on some of those on, on some books. So yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:17:44]:

The the thing is, Shane, is this this article makes it seem like there is a solution. There's not a solution. Okay? No. There's only there's only a a longer leash. Yeah. And there's geolocation software that is figuring out where you are. So to to a pin precise location where you go, oh, you know you know, Jane Smith from Saskatchewan's in downtown Vancouver at Andrew's apartment. You know? They know it, and I know they know it because no matter what level of, you know, this sort of buttering or priming that happens on the account, they're they're still, you know, taking action on it very quickly, in a lot of cases.

Andrew Pace [00:18:25]:

So that that brings up a whole other set of strategies. You know, do you have certain accounts that you only use when you're not at home? How much loss are you willing to take on an account, before you absolutely let it rip on them? How much are you betting on each bet? Right? So, like, are you flying under the radar at the $100 level, at the $1,000 level? Are you perceived as a whale at the $10,000 level where they want you, or are you more likely to get limited? There is no answer to any of those questions because it completely depends on the sportsbook. It completely depends on your history with the sportsbook, your location. The list goes on and on and on. Right? So I think for more than anything, it's just people being aware of these things so that they can recognize, okay. There might be a better way for me to do this, but it still is inevitable. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:19:22]:

One way, that, you know, might help in this whole process of getting a longer leash is taking some long shot odds and and, you know, taking taking a shot on something that that might be kind of out there or, you know, something that maybe other people aren't really, you know, thinking about and, you know, it's it's hey. And then maybe, yeah, maybe you hit it, but maybe even hitting it doesn't hurt you that much with the book. And, you know, it still keeps you in the good graces because, hey, at least they're betting on that 30 to 1, you know, long shot dog play. And and I'm bringing it up because, John, you do this kind of thing. You really sort of can dial into to, you know, futures and and, maybe some odd sort of pregame plays that are super long shot plays, but you you do it from a place that is, very sort of meticulous and data driven and analytical. So can you give us a little insight into into maybe some of these plays that maybe you've you've taken lately, maybe some that you've hit? And and what is it that you're looking for?

GosuThune [00:20:28]:

Yeah. Sure. So, you know, I do a lot of, futures mark, modeling. You know, I make I make a lot of my own lines, and I basically forecast out what those lines are gonna be for the whole season for I do this for college football, NFL, NBA. And so, you know, I'm able to spot inefficiencies in a market, and exploit those. And you can either do that and just try to hold on to the bet and hope it hits. Like you said, a lot of case some cases, these are extreme long shots where if I just hit 1 in my lifetime, it'll pay for, me betting that every year and then some. Right? And then other cases, they're, you know, 41, 5 to 1, but I think they should be 2 to 1, 3 to 1, those kinds of things.

GosuThune [00:21:07]:

And those you expect to actually win a couple every year. Right? So, you know, last NBA season, we hit Clippers to win that division. We hit the the Thunder to win their division, and some of those were paying, like, 7 to 1. Right? So, you know, we hit well well, who well, we had Shay Gilders Alexander to win the MVP at 25 to 1 before the season, and at one point, he was the favorite, towards the end of the season and came in second in the voting. So, you know, it's it's we're gonna win those, every now and then, and it's gonna pay for a lot of the losses. So I do think some of those bets have value, in in your account when betting them. I think they I think in general, if you're winning a lot of money on futures, it's probably no better than winning a lot of money live or or even pregame doing you know, anytime you're just winning a lot, they're not gonna like that. But when you're betting a lot of long shots, it's a good chance you're just gonna lose all of them for a for a long time.

GosuThune [00:21:57]:

And I also think they like, you know, you you they have your money, and they can invest your money and do what they want with it for 4 to 6 months. Right? So I will say I the very first account I ever had limited, was, Twin Spires, when they were open here, and it was for betting Julius Randle to win the MVP, which he definitely did not. Probably one of the worst bets I've ever made, but they clearly thought that if I was betting that, I must know something. Turns out I did not. He just happened to have fit my model that year, so I liked to have the 100 to 1 odds I was getting, but, he didn't win. So you definitely can't get limited, but, you know, there's a lot of value. I mean, I think we've we're on a couple pretty good long shots so far for college football futures this year. Some of them don't look that great.

GosuThune [00:22:43]:

Small bets, like, we bet North Carolina to make the playoff at 40 to 1. But part of that was just because, like I said earlier, inefficiency in a market. So they were 25 to 1 to win their conference. Well, if they win the ACC, they make the playoff. So why are they 40 to 1 to make the playoff if they if that's included with the other bet? Right? So that doesn't look good. Their quarterback got hurt in the 1st game of the season. He's out, out for the year. But then we have James Madison to win their conference at 8 to 1.

GosuThune [00:23:10]:

They're 3 to 1 right now. We happen to win their division at 3 to 1. So a lot of good value that we've got on some of these things. So I just think there's, you know, just inefficiencies when you're forecasting out things that are gonna happen 3 3 months from now. And a lot of that is dictated on just where the money is. If they don't have a lot of money on a team, they'll give you a good price because they want that action to balance out and, check themselves. So

Shane Mercer [00:23:33]:

Alright, John. So let's give the people some examples of some of these, wagers that you've kind of taken over the last little bit here. One of them has to do with Shohei Ohtani. Tell us what you were doing with him and and how it went.

GosuThune [00:23:48]:

Right. Right. So, tying it all back into our conversation earlier about getting your books ready to to start winning, well, you know, we talked about same game parlays, some, you know, long shots trying to lose money, trying to look square. You know, Shohei Tani is probably I mean, he's definitely the most famous baseball player right now, the most talked about. He had that 5050, game where he was the 1st player ever to steal 50 bases, hit 50 home runs in a single season, and he had, like, the greatest single performance in a game offensively, I think, ever. If you go by yeah. Baseball reference, I think they have a stat that's called, like, expected runs added in a game or something like that, and it's it was the highest ever, in recorded, baseball stats. So I think he, by himself, added, like, 10 runs above an average replacement player in that game.

GosuThune [00:24:37]:

So pretty incredible stuff. So, I just you know, it was like I I had a couple a couple new books I opened, and I started just parlaying Ohtani props together because he was on an incredible streak. So I was parlaying, you know, home runs, stolen bases, RBIs, total bases, hits, just a bunch of walks, just any any way Ohtani could do damage to the other team. I was just kinda stitching them together. The the most fun one obviously is the home run stolen base parlay because unlike all of the other offensive stats in a game, the a stolen base can't be gotten with a home run, right, in the same bat. So they're they're essentially conflicting. So oftentimes, when you parlay things that are negatively correlated, you get an odds boost on a same game parlay. It's one way to actually try to extract some value, out of same game parlays.

GosuThune [00:25:25]:

So, you know, betting a tea betting an underdog to win, but taking their team total under for a game is another one. So it's just the ways ways you can win. But so, I was, you know, he was on such an incredible heater that I I bet this every day, with him. Like I said, like, a lot of different combinations of this stuff, and it just kept winning every day. He would have, like, 3 hits, 2 stolen bases, a home run, like, 5 RBIs. And so, at first, one of the accounts that I had was, elevated into, like, a VIP status because I was throwing away 100 of dollars on same game parlays, parlays, and other sports. And I was betting this Ohtani parlay, and I won there. And I won, you know, several $1,000, on it.

GosuThune [00:26:08]:

And then I won again. And then I won again. And they kept giving me these profit boosts, you know. So as I'm getting I'm betting this this thing that he's doing almost every game. Like, he's he's doing it every other game or every 3 games, and I'm getting it at 14 to 1 times, you know, 50% extra or 30% or 20% or whatever the boosts are. And I'm hitting it, like, every other day. And so they actually limited my account. So at first, I was doing what they thought was amazing square behavior, and it just so happened that it won, which is, you know, 2, also something that I would I was gonna bring up earlier in the limiting discussion where a lot of times players, you know, even casual bettors might accidentally find themselves doing something that is is an incredibly high ROI play in the moment and get accidentally limited.

GosuThune [00:26:54]:

Though the average person might not know because maybe they don't bet more than a $100. Right? So they wouldn't even know that they were limited. But it's just funny how even even when you do all of the behaviors that they want you to do on betting the squares player and the, like, the squares thing that's going on right now in sports, they'll they still come down on you when you take when you take them for for what they deem to be too much money, I I guess. But, yeah, it was a fun little run there, with Shohei. And now I think maybe those parlays will pay even better in the playoffs when the totals are lower. So I'm excited to maybe just keep keep keep rolling with them.

Shane Mercer [00:27:32]:

Okay. Okay. So we're we're gonna be riding the Shohei wave through the playoffs.

GosuThune [00:27:35]:

That's right.

Shane Mercer [00:27:37]:

Awesome. Love it. Okay. You got another, example for us. This one, coming from the NFL. Talk to me a little bit about, you know, we we were sort of talking offline about, the last undefeated team and how, you know, the Detroit lions were really getting pushed by the sportsbooks to to, hey. Take this bet. I think it was pay, I don't know, maybe plus 500, plus 600, maybe somewhere in that ballpark to take the lions to be the last undefeated team.

Shane Mercer [00:28:06]:

And, you know, the hype on the lions was really high at the be, before the season started. And I'm very, happy to say that, my Minnesota Vikings are at top of the division right now. That's true. Yep. We'll see who owns the division at the end of the season. But but you did something, in that vein, but very different.

GosuThune [00:28:28]:

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I I will say for our for our members, we did we did also all take the lions, to be the last undefeated team. There are some there are some reasons for that, outside of just the the value on the number. But, unfortunately, Dan Dan made one too many mistakes, in that game and cost him. But, the the I've I've taken personally the titans to be the last winless team, which is, in my opinion, a much more fun bet, than the last undefeated team. I took that a couple weeks ago, because the number was basically the same as before the season because I they, you know, they outplayed the Bears in that game in week 1 when they lost, and Will Levis turned the ball over so many times.

GosuThune [00:29:10]:

So I think there is just they were a little they got a little bit of a bump even though they lost the game. And Will Levis is just dreadful. And they're really just not much of not much good to speak of on that team, but the odds just didn't really make any sense. And it was elevated because they have a buy early in the week early in the season, which is one reason that to, like, to have, like, that Detroit bet as well. But so the Titans go on buy next week, and right now, they're the only team left, outside of Jaguars, with without a win. And even just in week 3, the Jaguars and the Bengals were the only 2 other teams, that, didn't have a didn't have a win. And the Titans lost on Sunday, and both of those teams played on Monday. So there's actually a chance for that bet to cash in 1 week after I bet it, which is pretty amazing.

GosuThune [00:29:55]:

Of course, they both lost, but the Bengals won this week. So, and the Jaguars are winning with, like, 2 minutes left, in in their game as well. So I should have already cashed that bet, but, you know, plus 800 for, what I think is maybe the worst team in football, to to not win a game through week 4 or 5. So, you know, pretty pretty good. So I'm excited to hopefully keep that alive tonight, against the Dolphins.

Shane Mercer [00:30:20]:

I love that you're rocking, like, a a titans, sweater there too. And and, of course, they're coming to us from from that state. Right?

GosuThune [00:30:30]:

That that that's right. This this is purely just to to, support my tax dollars, that are are going to the new stadium. So, yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:30:41]:

That that's awesome. Well, you know, the these bets are all you know, they sound like they can pay off. They can also, help you keep, a book around a little longer maybe than unless you keep hitting them like you did with with Shohei. But, you know, in theory, they should help you keep your book around a little bit longer. Do you have any sort of tips or advice for people out there if they wanted to go down this sort of long shot path? I know you said you do a lot of modeling yourself, and you sort of, you know, do some origination, on your own. But do you have any sort of advice for for people out there that maybe, you know, aren't doing that kind of thing?

GosuThune [00:31:18]:

Yeah. I would just say it's there's always I would say there's there's money in burning buildings. Right? So, everybody is running out of the burning building. You should run into the burning building. And a lot of that's that's something that a lot of people in the investment world will tell you as well. Right? Like, when everybody tells you a company's failing, that's when you should buy it. And so, you know, like, the Vikings are 4 and o. I might have bet them to miss the playoffs this morning.

GosuThune [00:31:42]:

You know, it's it's just you. It's kind of like, you know, and I have reasons for wanting to do that in in projections that I make. But, you know, like, whenever the hype is is is great is the best time to sell. Whenever it's low, it's the best time to buy. So, you know, after week 1, the the the Steelers, people were even just going into the season, people were really selling the Steelers, and I I took a little bit on their their season win total under. But the odds still for them to win the division just simply didn't make any sense based on the amount of wins that they were projected to have. Same with actually the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts and the Jaguars had the same preseason win total, but their preseason division odds, the Colts paid an entire unit more.

GosuThune [00:32:25]:

Like, it was they were plus I think, plus 400 you could get the Colts to win the division. The Jags were, like, plus 280. Well, why is that the case if they have the same win total? You know, that's just a simple market inefficiency. So sometimes you don't need a model or anything. You can just line up the other odds that the books are giving you and find where something just doesn't make any sense. We do it all the time live, right, when we're looking at, well, what does touchdown pay? Well, why if they're gonna score a touchdown, they're probably gonna do it in this quarter. So maybe I should just take the over or something. Right? It just a lot of times the books are their algorithms just they they get lazy, and they just wanna let them do all the work.

GosuThune [00:33:02]:

And they let the money move the line and stuff, and you can find a lot of a lot of value there.

Shane Mercer [00:33:08]:

Yeah. And, I'm glad you brought that up because, you know, we're talking to you about all these sort of long shot things and then these, you know, futures and then that that sort of stuff. But, at the end of the day, this is sort of just something you kind of do on the side. Right? You're still focused. Your main focus is still live betting.

GosuThune [00:33:25]:

Yes. Yeah. And that, you know, futures bets that we made, our our our most famous community one right now is that we have the Arizona State Sun Devils win total under for the season. I think we have under 4a half. They're they started 3 and o. But in every one of those three wins, we were betting them the whole game because they were underdogs and they were winning, and they were winning big. So, we made back probably 5 times what I've bet on that under, in those 3 games. And, oh, by the way, the under's still live.

GosuThune [00:33:56]:

They might not win another game. You never know. So, you just have to pretend like you don't have bets when you start betting live and just play the cards that you're dealt.

Shane Mercer [00:34:06]:

Love it. The forks. Yeah. We made some money off the forks. That was a lot of fun, but maybe maybe no more fun or winning off the forks anyway, and and you can still hit your under. I love it. We'll get it all for the scoop. Alright, Pei.

Shane Mercer [00:34:18]:

So what do you think about these, the the these, you know, kind of what some people might call crazy bets that John is placing here?

Andrew Pace [00:34:25]:

Well, I don't I don't necessarily think they're crazy bets, so I'll disagree with that right off the hop. But I wanna go back to the Shohei Ohtani thing. So John's betting the Shohei Ohtani, same game parlors. You know? In in one account, you know, he's looking like a a recreational player. In another account, he's getting clipped. The simple reality is you're just gonna get clipped if you win money. We haven't even gone into getting clipped when you didn't win money because they didn't like the pattern of the way that you played. When sports betting got regulated, there was this big article on DraftKings about a guy who hit this crazy, crazy parlor and then got limited after, and he was a recreational player that just happened to hit a, you know, a multi $100,000, parlor.

Andrew Pace [00:35:10]:

So imagine you're sitting in Las Vegas. Close your eyes or just look at my screen. Right? And you hit a jackpot on a slot machine, and they're like, sir, here's your money, and we need you to leave and never come back. That's essentially what some of the sportsbooks are doing with people, and I'm not referencing John here, obviously, but that is what they're doing in a lot of cases. You hit some big parlor, you're out of here. It's like, are you freaking kidding me? That is so stupid. Okay. Back to the Ohtani thing.

Andrew Pace [00:35:43]:

You are making these bets that are the most square public bets imaginable. They happen to win, and you are kicking them off your site. At least give the player some sort of leash to keep trying something. Change the odds. Oh, he's still this is the whole point. Scott said this last week. Oh, he likes he took plus 10. Okay.

Andrew Pace [00:36:07]:

We better move the line to plus 9a half. Oh, he still likes plus 9a half. We better move it to plus 9. Okay. He doesn't like it anymore. Let's leave it at plus 9. Right? So Shohei makes sense at at 20 to 1 for him. Let's move it to 15.

Andrew Pace [00:36:22]:

He likes it at 15. Let's move it to 10. He likes it at 10. Let's move it to 6. Not betting it anymore. Let's keep it at 6. Where is this common sense in this industry? It is unbelievable. Okay.

Andrew Pace [00:36:35]:

Some of the other bets that John's making, I've been a part of them. They're great, and I think that it's important to understand when we talk about some of these picks, whether it's the titans, whether it's, you know, the forks, the the under on wins, I think we also might have a little bit on them to make the playoff at this point too, which I think we probably might end up losing both of those. John was a successful sports bettor before he joined in PlayLab because of this modeling and because of some of the things that he's gonna do. So you might tune in and be like, oh, this guy's awesome. By the way, he's gonna be on, hopefully, like, for 5, 6 minutes where we do a a menu rundown, like, hey, a quick menu rundown. He's not giving out picks, guys. What it is is it's information. What you do with that information as a sports bettor is always going to be up to you.

Andrew Pace [00:37:22]:

How are you gonna deploy your bankroll knowing that you might get limited? How are you gonna make a decision for tomorrow, for your next account, wherever that may be, to make sure that you do get more money out of it? Are you gonna rush to some of the bets that he just mentioned and see the lines of them and and and bet them now knowing that he might be ahead or behind on some of them? Right? Like, it simply is information. We're not gonna be here, you know, touting these picks. Now with that, John, I think it's really cool to just run through a menu. You know, you and I do this sometimes on calls, and we're not making picks. But, you know, you you do look at some of the NFL lines as they as they first come out. And we did that last week, and, you know, we're obviously never gonna be perfect. But you look at some of these these lines early on. We've got the Bucks on Thursday Night Football, underdogs to Atlanta.

Andrew Pace [00:38:13]:

Do you do you have any thoughts on that?

GosuThune [00:38:17]:

I do. What do what is the line right now on that one?

Andrew Pace [00:38:21]:

2 and a half for Tampa Bay. They're they are on the road, and Kirk Kirko has been heating up. But is that something where you have any information on?

GosuThune [00:38:29]:

Yeah. So, well, Thursday nights is is typically a good spot for the for the home team just because of the the low rest and the travel. So I actually I actually do make that I think the 2 and a half side of that is a pretty good line. And I think the you know? So the book the books I mean, you know, the Bucks just had a really good week against the Eagles, and the Falcons kinda looked like crap, against the And and if

Andrew Pace [00:38:52]:

I'm teasing that line, I'm taking the Bucks. Because I got the 8 and a half side, and and that's where I like it. We're going to London this week with the Jets, Vikings. Near and dear to the Imply Live members' hearts is the the extraordinarily long live streams where we go Saturday, 9 AM Pacific to 11:30 PM Pacific, and then we wake up 6:30 AM Pacific, and then we go straight till 8:30 PM Pacific. The Jets are underdogs in London playing the 3 4 and o. Shane's Vikings are now 4 and o. Unbelievable. Let's go.

Andrew Pace [00:39:26]:

Starnold. Starnold. John, anything there?

GosuThune [00:39:31]:

I like that. I like that. The jet side of that is a teaser leg for sure. Get that 2a half up to 8a half. It's a low total game. I think it's around 40. I think those games those London games are just weird games. You know? Like, they'd find a way to just be low scoring and kinda gross.

GosuThune [00:39:44]:

So I think getting the teaser there is is good.

Andrew Pace [00:39:46]:

When when so, separate thing. And, again, we're not good pregame bettors. Well, I when I say we, I make up for all 3 of us at once. When you have a low total and you can tease a line above 7, usually that is a good spot because of the fact that the books aren't projecting a lot of scoring. It means it's it's harder to cover. Dolphins minus 1 at the Patriots.

GosuThune [00:40:09]:

Man, I just that's a that's a gross game. I actually kinda just wanna see how Huntley plays. You know, he actually had some good games in Baltimore, when he was on that you know, when he when he stepped in for for Lamar a couple years ago. So or last year. So I mean, that, I just kinda wanna see how he plays. You know, honestly, that might be a good spot to take Dolphins because the the Patriots are are are truly dreadful.

Shane Mercer [00:40:32]:

Yeah. He was a really serviceable backup last year.

Andrew Pace [00:40:36]:

I think when you go through a menu, it's really important to drop our famous line. Sometimes the best bet is the one that you didn't make. Panthers plus 3a half at the Bears.

GosuThune [00:40:47]:

Oh, the the darn old special. I think that that line is just I think they're trying to sucker people into that 3a half. I I really don't I don't know that I can I don't know that I can do it?

Andrew Pace [00:41:00]:

Colts plus 3 at the Jags?

GosuThune [00:41:04]:

Probably, man. Probably probably the Jags. I think it's it's this week or it's this week or never.

Andrew Pace [00:41:11]:

God. Kill me on those lines. Bills plus 1a half at Houston.

GosuThune [00:41:17]:

Oh, that's an interesting one. It's probably a good I mean, you would think it's a good spot to back the Bills after that loss, to the Ravens where they just looked they looked pretty bad. I actually make that like, both of these last couple of games we talked about, I make, like, pretty close to a pick. A lot of these games this week, more than half the games, I think, should be under a field goal, which I think they are. So, that's just up there.

GosuThune [00:41:39]:

It's like a good over game though for me.

Andrew Pace [00:41:42]:

Ravens, minus 2a half at the Bengals.

GosuThune [00:41:48]:

It's tough to take a favorite on the road in that division. You know? It seems like the the Bengals just haven't looked good. I mean.

Andrew Pace [00:41:56]:

Might be another good teaser spot. Browns plus 3 at the Commandos?

GosuThune [00:42:02]:

I mean, we love the Commanders. So I think it I think the Commanders, you have to back until they until they prove.

Andrew Pace [00:42:10]:

We made a killing on Sunday on the Commandos. I think the whole mindset there is Jaden Daniels might be elite, so bet it until he's not. Yeah. Raiders plus 3 at the Broncos.

GosuThune [00:42:25]:

It's definitely I'd I'd I think the Raiders are better are just a better team. Denver backing Denver at home early in the season is a really good strategy until about week 4. It seems like conditioning and altitude doesn't catch up for the road teams until about week 5. So now we're into week 5. So I kind of like I kinda like the Raiders there.

Andrew Pace [00:42:46]:

Cardinals plus 7a half at the niners.

GosuThune [00:42:53]:

Man, the niners looked really good against a really terrible New England team. I'd probably make that line about that. It's tough to I mean, the division matchup over 7 points, sometimes I think you just gotta take it.

Andrew Pace [00:43:04]:

Will be a lot of teasers on the niners, essentially money line or minus 1 and a hal f there.

GosuThune [00:43:09]:

The cardinals money line would, would do the books some some good. That's for sure if they won that game.

Andrew Pace [00:43:15]:

Totally. Giants plus 6 at the Seahawks.

GosuThune [00:43:21]:

Wanna see how Seattle looks tonight. Whenever betting a t you know, whenever looking ahead on a game that the team hasn't played on Monday night, it's like if this if Seattle beats the Lions, then that line moves to, like, 8. Right? If they lose, you get maybe 4a half or something. So

Andrew Pace [00:43:35]:

Here's a game that I love to lose some money on because anything I do in the category that we're doing right now, I just lose. Rams plus 3a half at home taking on the Packers. Right away, that screams to me Rams plus 9a half on the teaser, but go ahead, John.

GosuThune [00:43:52]:

Yeah. I mean, I think there's something weird about the Rams. I was looking at their their futures odds right now. I mean, they're they're, like, 11 to 1 to win their division and just some strange some really strange numbers. It it, to me, signals that there's a lot of injury news that I don't understand or, like, some injuries to key players are, like, cup or worse than they advertise. And there's people that know more than I do because that those numbers are just totally off of of what I what I make. So

Andrew Pace [00:44:17]:

Cowboys plus 2 at Steelers.

GosuThune [00:44:25]:

Man, I just hate backing the Steelers as a favorite. I just think that they're a much much worst. I think they I think the Cowboys are a good team. They've had some execution problems this year. I just I I just can't take the steal. I mean, you know I was all over the Colts this week, so it'll probably be another spot to fade Tomlin as a favorite.

Andrew Pace [00:44:43]:

Right. And then final one is Monday night football, the Saints plus 5 at the Chiefs, which I think that line will be moving in the Chiefs' favor by the time kickoff hits.

GosuThune [00:44:52]:

I agree. That's I'd I have that I have that number as a much bigger number. The Chiefs tend to struggle covering bigger bigger numbers. They did it this week against the charters despite not ever really winning or leading in the game. But, I just I don't like car on the road or outdoors at all. Right.

Andrew Pace [00:45:11]:

So I just wanna say the reason why we bring these up is because a few things. Number 1, we make a tremendous edge on live betting that doesn't exist pregame. You know, typically, the best pregame bettors are gonna get a 2, 3 percent edge. Our ROI across all sports is is closer to 15% for the for the year. And when you go through a menu, which a lot of people do and they bet everything or they they bet a whole bunch of legs, you're just adding value to the sportsbooks and not to yourself. So you bring up a guy like John who models all this kind of stuff, and you hear him go, for most of the games. Right? So there's a couple where he's like, yeah. I like this game.

Andrew Pace [00:45:51]:

They aren't picks. It's just information. So, yeah, it's been a great NFL season so far, and, hopefully, that gives you a little bit of insight.

Shane Mercer [00:46:00]:

Awesome. Well, I'm looking forward to to doing this menu rundown because I feel like I just picked up a whole bunch of information that, you know, just, has me more, equipped and and feeling sort of better armed heading into the into the into the next week of of NFL. And it's it's nice to sort of just get it on the brain right away, on on a Monday when we're recording this. But even early, you know, whether that's you're listening on a Tuesday or a Wednesday when the when the, the episode comes out, or or, you know, Thursday morning before before the Thursday niner. This is just great information to have. So, John, looking forward to having you, make a regular weekly appearance and do a menu rundown with us.

GosuThune [00:46:36]:

Yeah. Looking forward to it. Sounds fun.

Shane Mercer [00:46:38]:

Awesome. Alright. Well, it's been a lot of fun, chatting with you guys, this week. So to you, Pace, John, all the sports bettors around the world tuning in, till next week, Keep beating those bucks. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download, and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below.

Shane Mercer [00:47:03]:

And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code BEHINDTHELINES.