Episode 81

Johnny Capo [00:00:00]:

I'll say I'll say this and just because I don't I don't bet live in play at all, especially on MMA. I would if you watched, like, the let's just say the main live book. I don't really like to name books, but it's like a green one, the main live one, like a green one.

Shane Mercer [00:00:16]:

hahah I think we might know. I think we might know.

Shane Mercer [00:00:37]:

Hello, and welcome to another episode of Behind the Lines podcast powered by Pinnacle that's purifying the sports betting industry. Remember to like, download, subscribe, follow us on all the socials @ inplayLIVE. I'm your host, Shane Mercer. We got Andrew Pace, founder of inplayLIVE, a community of like minded sports bettors dedicated to long term success. On today's show, we'll have our new segment, grinding who goes through and break down the NFL slate for week 6. That's coming up in a bit. But first, joining us today, we've got an awesome guest. He's the cofounder and CEO of BetStamp.

Shane Mercer [00:01:12]:

He's the cohost of the Circles Off podcast. He's a pretty sharp bettor himself. Johnny Capo, welcome to the show.

Johnny Capo [00:01:19]:

Thank you, guys. How's everyone doing today?

Shane Mercer [00:01:21]:

Great, man. Just really happy to have you.

Johnny Capo [00:01:24]:

Yeah, man. It's, best time of the year incoming. We have, almost NBA season start, but, a lot of, lot of grinding to do with NFL and college football. It's it's just gets you back in the swing. Summer So

Shane Mercer [00:01:35]:

let let let's start there. How's your NFL season treating you so far? We're what? We're we're 4 weeks in, 5 weeks in?

Johnny Capo [00:01:40]:

NFL's been good. I mean, it could could always be better, but, you know, doing doing the same things. I I like how the markets are progressing every year on NFL. I talk about this a lot on our show on Circles Off, but, you know, it's one of the best times ever to be a bettor because there's so many different markets available. You know, you don't just have spread in total. And in the previous kind of era, there would be some player props available, some touchdown scores, some same like, you know, stuff like that, but you can never really get down money on that. So you'd be able to only bet a couple bucks. You know, max bet on a prop, $100, $200.

Johnny Capo [00:02:16]:

When, we're looking at the market now, we're hitting, like, an inflection point where because of the fact that all these props are more mainstream now and everybody wants to bet props, you can actually bet some decent money. Obviously, not as much as you can on the full games, but you can bet decent money on props nowadays for NFL, for example, touchdown score mark, yardage totals, you know, ladders, everything like that. And because of that, it's been a it's been a good season for anyone who wants to grind.

Shane Mercer [00:02:43]:

Yeah. Yeah. And, a lot of the books now really sort of shoving those markets in your face with a lot of their promos and and, you know, a lot of their marketing material. They really want you to bet that kind of stuff.

Johnny Capo [00:02:54]:

For sure. I think it's the highest hold for the sportsbooks. So, you know, overall, people are losing the most. But, a friend of mine once told me the bigger the hold, the bigger the fear. And, what that means is if you look at MLB, Major League Baseball, let's say, MoneyLiones. Right? You can shop across books. You can get, you know, 1p a side easy on the whole there. You can bet into minus 101, minus 101.

Johnny Capo [00:03:20]:

Pinnacle, for example, you, aforementioned, will deal 8¢ line in MLB. You know, minus 04, minus 04. So most people make the misconception of saying that's the easiest to beat because it's minus 04, minus 04. When in reality, as I just said, the bigger the hole, the bigger the fear. Meaning, when a sports book makes a market minus 30, minus 30, that is where you wanna attack them because that's typically where they don't have confidence in the market, and you can find, some metrics there.

Shane Mercer [00:03:48]:

Hey. Great little piece of advice there. And, yeah, that's a that's a really great way to look at it that, you know, where you're getting worse odds, there's a reason they're worse because the the book is a bit scared.

Johnny Capo [00:03:58]:

Yeah. And, also, with these same game parlays, I think they make so much money just on terrible plays that people are betting. You know, they might be betting, like, just stuff that isn't correlated much, and, they're just getting crazy, you know, negative correlation of factors applied to those bets. So, for example, you might bet Lamar Jackson, to score or Lamar Jackson to score 1 rushing touchdown and the Ravens to win. Now, obviously, these are correlated because they would assume the Ravens get 1 touchdown. But it's not like a crazy correlation where you can be affording to pay all this big. And if you were to just, let's say, put that same game same game parlay and be getting absolutely buried every week. Like, you you'd be losing, like, 30 to 40%, on those style plays.

Johnny Capo [00:04:43]:

So because of that and because that's, you know, the key one that most people are putting in, you actually have opportunity if you wanna get creative and starting to look at things with different correlation, negative correlation, everything. It's in infinite possibilities, and it's basically impossible to guard against all of these because it's, like, 1,000, if not millions of, you know, different, patterns you can do.

Shane Mercer [00:05:07]:

Yeah. Yeah. And I, you know, I like what you bring up there. Most people, I think, when they're when they're building those, they're they're just stacking negative EV upon negative EV, and it just gets compounded. Right?

Johnny Capo [00:05:17]:

Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. But, the the same game parleys are all about correlation and, I guess, inverse correlation. So, basically, either stuff that is gonna be like each other and should be priced negatively or stuff that should be opposite each other and priced positively. And if you can find edges on one of those, you can make a good amount of money right now. That's that's where I'd be looking actually. If I'm a new new bettor looking into the game, go straight to the SGP's and start and start shopping around and firing.

Shane Mercer [00:05:43]:

Hey. Love it. Cool, man. Well, we're gonna get into some of your betting story and a little bit more of your background and everything. But but before we get there, I wanna talk a little bit more about actual betting that you might be doing right now because I know that, you do some MMA betting too. Right? And we're coming off of a pretty, a spectacular performance from. I just wanted to get your reaction to to the card this past weekend. And then what exactly

Johnny Capo [00:06:06]:

are you doing in MMA? MMA, MMA is difficult. I will say a lot of people think it's easy to beat, but the limits are very high for MMA. They're, in fact, actually right now higher than, college football and higher than college basketball for sure. They're roughly, I'd say, just only behind NFL and NBA right now in terms of how much you can actually get down. People might disagree with that because they don't really have, like, this the wide variety of of books that are available. But if you're looking at people who are just, like, booking straight, booking real, and and booking real sports, like MMA is up there, It's very easy to get down 100 of 1,000, right now. So it's not easy to beat at all. It's very anecdotal in terms of, you know, who's gonna win.

Johnny Capo [00:06:52]:

Lot of news based stuff based on, you know, this guy looked good. This guy didn't didn't look good in camp. But, yeah, so for MMA, personally, I'm I'm a massive fan of sport. I watch every every card. I watch a lot of non UFC MMA as well, which is sometimes a bit of a waste of time, but you never you never know what you're gonna get. Gotcha. Yeah. My my edge honestly really is, like, I I like to shop around on pricing.

Johnny Capo [00:07:19]:

So, you know, if you have a variety of, like, 10 or 20 books that you're gonna be able to fire big on at tight tight holds, you really only need to have, like, one specific angle that you can beat and, you know, you'll be able to, let's say, earn 1% and bet into half percent hold. You you you might be able to do something there. So what I try to do is, you know, only bet into a super super low hold on the market, meaning, like, a shop around. Let's say, bolt on might be, let's say, I don't know, minus 400 and I can get Rowntree, like, plus 3.90. Well, now, you know, I don't really need a significant edge in order to actually sustain myself there. And I have a couple little tidbits of things that I that I'd like to look at. Not really anything I could, like, you know, share openly. Otherwise, it kind of eroded for me.

Johnny Capo [00:08:04]:

But I have a few little angles that I look at. But the most important thing is always shop around into that negative hold. That way you can actually sustain in the market longer. And if what I'm doing can earn me 1%, then I can stay alive. And if what I'm doing has absolutely zero edge, then, you know, I'm not really gonna die too quick. You know, I'm just gonna, you know, you know, lose a half percent, lose a 0.1% on the course of the card.

Shane Mercer [00:08:29]:

And have some fun while doing it.

Johnny Capo [00:08:32]:

Exactly. Exactly. I do think there's value in a lot of these, larger props as well on MMA. It's not anything that's super liquid. I don't think you can get down a ton of money on them. But, for example, like, Alex Pereira to get a knockout in round 4. Yeah. The pricing on these props, like, very out of whack when it comes to different books.

Johnny Capo [00:08:53]:

So I I really do like, you know, essentially taking some shots on things like that. Because, yeah, if, again, if you have an angle, like, hey, Pereira, he he he's he's really good. He's a good finisher, but, you know, he's has a history of getting out of the 1st round and getting some later finishes. You might be able to find some angles there if you're looking at it. But, yeah, I didn't play that. I wish I would have, obviously, but, you know, I I didn't even have any any any big size bets on the on the main event there. Did you guys?

Shane Mercer [00:09:21]:

No. No. I I personally did, and I was just watching it as a fan. I don't know

Andrew Pace [00:09:25]:

what to say. Interesting that you, you brought that up because I'm kinda rewinding the tape. I'm not a big, MMA bettor or even a MMA bettor at all. We actually developed a a system where when the, fighters came out in the ring, we we gave a point for different things from ethnicity to height to tattoos, not knowing anything about them, and we got reverse swept on the card. So I think you might be interested in

Andrew Pace [00:09:48]:

I think you might be interested in the other side, of that system. But as a as someone who doesn't bet MMA, something I have noticed is that you used to be able to wager in fight on so many different things that are all gone now, because those must have just had massive edges. Even now, like, oftentimes, just who's gonna win won't even be available once the round is actually on. Whereas I I recall, like, method of victory being open, in real time, with the like, the rounds. Like, basically, essentially, the whole menu almost translating to the live menu and that and that being a thing of the past now. Am I am I accurate there?

Johnny Capo [00:10:30]:

Yeah. Yeah. That was, those were up for quite some time. Very, very, very easy to beat without even trying on those ones. So, I think there's a reason why those got taken down now. But, yeah, you used to be able to bet a guy to win by decision, and that would be staying up to, like, you know, 2 or 3 minutes left in the 3rd round. And it'd just be getting essentially an arbible price with the money line on the opponent. Right.

Johnny Capo [00:10:54]:

So very likely to win on a lot of these if you're if you're piecing it together. The in play is still there. You can bet the fighters live, but they've drastically cut the limits. Like, you're not betting more than a couple $100 live right now on And, one thing I did notice also is with MMA, there's always been a significant problem with the judging. Meaning, the judges are, like, I believe it's basically by the commission. They're not, like, UFC judges per se. There's, like, judges of the commission. And what ends up happening is, you know, a lot of times, these these judges are well out of sorts.

Johnny Capo [00:11:30]:

Meaning I'm not even trying to criticize any 1 or 2 people, but when you have a fight and one judge scores at 3027 for side a and the other judge scores at 3027 for side b, obviously, there's a problem. And that happens, like, a couple times a month in today's in today's game.

Shane Mercer [00:11:46]:

It seems like it happens.

Shane Mercer [00:11:48]:

This happens almost every card now, and we had a couple this past weekend.

Johnny Capo [00:11:51]:

Yeah. Exactly. So when you're having stuff like that, you know, like I said, not even to criticize any judging or any people. I've sat, cage side or, like, ringside for I'm a big boxing fan as well. I've sat ringside for a lot of boxing fights, both like amateur and pro fights. And I will say this, to give them defense, it is nearly impossible to tell what's going on from that position. Like, I've sat right in the ring and watched a fight and then had a like, watch a 12 round decision and said, I have no idea who who won this fight. Like, I don't even know at all.

Johnny Capo [00:12:21]:

It could be 9 94. It could be, like, a 10, 8 round, every round. I would have no idea because you just don't see it from certain positions. And I think, yeah, a better solution would be to get the judges, like, watching on monitors somewhere without crowd influence where they can't hear the fighters and just, like, watching on TV. But, the way it is right now, yeah, it's out to lunch. So the sportsbooks had to adjust and really take that down a bunch. I do actually think right now something crazy for tidbit for the listeners here. Some of the live sites that'll offer live in between rounds, like, they they know they have to know the the cards.

Johnny Capo [00:12:57]:

They know what's what was on that round scorecard because the multiple times where I'll be watching a fight, and, you know, I'll see it as a clear one one. And, you know, like, Rogan and the crew and those guys will have, like, one one. They'll be like, one one going into round 3. Like, this is it. And then you'll take a peek at the live, and 1 fighter will be, like, minus 900. And it'll be, like, wow. So it's 2 o for that fighter. And then sure enough, you can take a look at the scorecards after.

Johnny Capo [00:13:25]:

And sure enough, it it's, you know, 1 fighter, 2 o on on on 2 of the cards and 1 and 1 on 1 card. And, yeah. So I I don't know how they're getting it, but, live the in place on a few of the sites have half the cards for sure.

Andrew Pace [00:13:38]:

Great information.

Shane Mercer [00:13:40]:

Yeah. That that's fantastic. You know, something to keep in mind for sure.

Johnny Capo [00:13:45]:

I don't know what you're gonna do with it, though.

Shane Mercer [00:13:48]:

It's great information.

Johnny Capo [00:13:48]:

it means.

Shane Mercer [00:13:49]:

Stay the fuck away. Yeah.

Johnny Capo [00:13:50]:

No. I I don't even I don't even know what you're gonna do with it, though, because you can't really get down too much.

Shane Mercer [00:13:56]:

And Yeah. And you don't really wanna bet the minus 900 side. Like, who wants to do that? But, you know, at the same time, you know, if if you're looking at that, like, the the book is telling you what the what the scorecards are. You know? That's a whole different way of looking at the line, I guess.

Johnny Capo [00:14:10]:

I'll say I'll say this, and just because I don't I don't bet live in play at all, especially on MMA. I would if you watched, like, the let's just say the main live book. I don't really like the name books, but it's like a green one, the main live one.

Shane Mercer [00:14:28]:

Like a green one. I think we might know. I think we might know.

Johnny Capo [00:14:31]:

If you looked at that book.

Johnny Capo [00:14:38]:

In between rounds there you go. In between rounds, if you took a look at that, like, that green site, you went to live in play, and you took a look in between rounds, I'd say you would be, there would be a lot less robbery, shocking decisions in your mind because you'd you'd you'd have a lot of the answers in advance.

Andrew Pace [00:14:56]:

Cool. I actually wanna go back to the same game parlor thing about football that you were chatting about because there's a couple important things that you brought up, and I think, you know, one thing you said is, like, hey. If you're a new sports bettor, that's what I would go and attack. The flip side of that is if you're a new sports bettor, that's what you're betting because you're betting with your fantasy team. So that's what can make some of those markets so beatable. And if you can find correlated bets in an arena where people are like, okay. I'm not even cheering for teams anymore. I'm cheering for my fantasy team. So, like, I'm gonna inflate the price of Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, the list goes on and on.

Andrew Pace [00:15:30]:

Right? And especially when you don't have the research about where they're playing, you know, who's defending them, how they play against, you know, zone versus man to man, the list goes on and on. You know, those are those are great opportunities. So from that standpoint of going, hey, Make a same game parlor. That's kind of contradictory to a lot of the things that we'll talk about on this show. But there's further upside to it too because when you win 1, the books are less likely to know that it was a sharp wager until you've done it with any sort of pattern. So we were talking about this last week on the show, but keeping your accounts is important, and this can be a great way to make some money while keeping your accounts as well.

Johnny Capo [00:16:12]:

Absolutely. But I to be clear, I don't advocate for just, like, dunking same game parlays. I'm saying finding inverse or positive correlation that will win you a lot of money. Like, an a perfect example I can say would be, okay. If you bet Daniel Jones 400, yeah, plus passing yards and the Giants to lose. Okay? Now if he gets 400 passing yards and the Giants is like, what are the chances of that? I don't know. I don't have it off by hand, but what are the chances that the sportsbooks completely accurately priced that within their 20% hold? It's I just gave a random example. I have no idea what the pricing on that is, but there's if you look and just, like, list out thousands of samples like that and you can try to price them out, you have the data behind it, then, yeah, I've done that multiple times.

Johnny Capo [00:17:01]:

I found, you know, tens tens of thousands of different angles that can be played, on any given basis for all sports, by the way, not just NFL.

Shane Mercer [00:17:11]:

Very good. I wanna I wanna sort of move the conversation forward like I promised our our audience a little bit earlier. We wanna learn a little bit more about, you know, Johnny the guy and how he sort of got to this place as being, you know, one of one of the premier sharp sports bettors out there and, you know, host of the circles on podcast and and CEO and founder of BetStamp and all those sorts of things. But, you know, take us back. When did you first start getting into betting? When did you, you know, then think maybe this is something that I I wanna do, you know, more seriously?

Johnny Capo [00:17:43]:

Yeah. I can I can run through real quick? I started betting when I was, like, there's a government lottery here called ProLine in Ontario. You guys probably.

Shane Mercer [00:17:51]:

We're very familiar with ProLine. I'm also in Ontario too.

Johnny Capo [00:17:54]:

So There you go.

Johnny Capo [00:17:56]:

Basically, yeah, I started on ProLine when I was a kid. I was placing bets that I didn't even know were good bets, but they actually somehow were. I was just getting super lucky, but I I would place, like, Ovechkin to score a goal and, like, Backstrom to get an assist and the Capitals to win by 2. And, like, I was getting the correlative pricing on that and not even knowing it. So I started off as playing those for a couple bucks, $5, $10. And then, yeah, eventually got my first, real real site. And, then I got a second so basically what happened was my this is a crazy story. So I got I got I got a site that I could play on.

Johnny Capo [00:18:35]:

I placed a couple bets, negative EV bets, how to bet in on, like, a Flyers Rangers game, something like that, and I wanted to stream the game. Couldn't watch it. Obviously, I wanna watch it. I think probably, like, $10 on the game. So I go online to try to, like, stream this game, like, searching, like, Rangers, fire, stream. I hit obviously, you get the pop ups. They got pop up 365, Bodog, x y z, whatever. And then I'm like, oh, so there's more sites.

Johnny Capo [00:19:01]:

So I I open that site now, and then I realize, oh, my book a and book b or book a and Bodog, book a and 365, completely different odds. Like, wow. I can arbitrage these. So literally, it was like my first, like, week betting. I learned that you could just arbitrage it through the sites and kinda took off from, from there over the years.

Shane Mercer [00:19:22]:

Okay. So, you know, I think so you started at at a young age though betting on ProLine. Right? Like, kind of, you know, perhaps younger than maybe you should have. Right? Which I think we have in common. You know At

Johnny Capo [00:19:34]:

the at the appropriate age. I mean, listen. I I come from a a a town where gambling is extremely prevalent. Like, everyone in high school is is has access to betting. It's typically not a frown it was not a frowned upon thing at all. Even just to put a couple bucks on a card game with, you know what I mean, with a family member, like, it wasn't it wasn't frowned upon. So it was a lot easier from in that sense.

Shane Mercer [00:20:00]:

I I I can understand that. I grew up in a family too where where, you know, gambling was a was par for the course and, you know, just play small amounts, card games at at Thanksgiving, and all that sorts of stuff. So I I can absolutely relate to that. But give me a sense of of what you wanted to be when you grew up. You know? Did you think that you'd be working in in the betting industry?

Johnny Capo [00:20:20]:

That's a good question. I never really answered this. I haven't answered this question in years, I should say. So I started betting, like I said, from a young age. I found success right away, which is extremely rare and lucky. And just most people, you know, they start they they they get into debt or they, you know, they lose it. They have a a problem. They they learn how to fix it.

Johnny Capo [00:20:39]:

Like I said, I got extremely lucky. I just learned how to win right away, like, right off the bat. And I started networking and building, like, community off of, like, just Twitter. And I just started making, like, all these friends in the community and whatnot. So I went to university. I went to school, and I went to business school and whatnot. And I I kinda got, like, a traditional, you know, good job out of business school and all this stuff. But the whole time I was doing that, I just kept my gambling community, and I would just do that all day every day.

Johnny Capo [00:21:04]:

So I remember being in university, and, like, I had just, like, crazy, like, excel skills just because I would use them from gambling. I learned everything on myself. I just watched videos to, like, run some models. I would ask people on Twitter. I asked my now podcast host Rob Pizzola. You know, we met via just cold DM when I was, like, a kid. I just DM'd him, hey, Rob. Like, I I need some help with some stuff.

Johnny Capo [00:21:26]:

Like, can I pick your brain? I'll I'll buy you a dinner. I'll do this. I end up taking him to a Leaf game, and we kinda started a friendship from there. But all this stuff, it's I had I remember going to university, and I was already, like, by far the best in the class at Excel and, like, better than the teachers and stuff like that. I I, like, running macros and all these things just from learning this myself on YouTube. So I would go in, and then they'd be teaching, like, super basic stuff. And I'd be like, oh, I wonder if this teacher can help me with, like, this modeling problem I have. So I'd have to, like, change it so that it wasn't sports betting so it wasn't frowned upon.

Johnny Capo [00:21:59]:

And then I'd go and I'd go after class, like, hey. Can you help me with this project I'm working on? And then she was like, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Whatever. But they she wasn't even any help. Like, I was already further advanced to that. So, you know, I got I got a a job and everything like that.

Johnny Capo [00:22:13]:

I worked for a couple years. I learned a lot of stuff, made a lot of friends, and it was it was a good experience. But ultimately, you know, I was always gonna do something in betting. And when the time came where, myself and my, you know, now business partner, Julian, we basically had a chance to start BetStamp and basically be at the forefront of, like, the whole advantage play sports betting stuff. We kinda just, like we took it, quit the jobs, called it a day, started it up, and, yeah, couldn't couldn't be happier. We, and we've achieved a lot. Today's been almost 5 years. Time completely flies.

Johnny Capo [00:22:50]:

But, yeah, for those of you who don't know what it is, we have, it's it's Betstamp, Betstamp dot com. Basically, we have the best sports betting tracker on the market by a mile. It's actually used by real pro bettors. Like, guys who actually bet use this tracker. It's not a tracker where you have to only, you know, directly sync your wager in. You can do different things. You can add multiple accounts. You can do accounting.

Johnny Capo [00:23:12]:

You can do everything on there. You can do real analysis that would actually be important, to you winning more. For example, segmenting by prop type totals over under CLV, different things, time of day. Everything's in there, so it's the best betting tracker. And then, we also have what I consider to be the best odds comparison tool product for alternate markets. So we've got, odd screen for all, game and player prop. That's every book, every sport, every skin, every prop type. So for NBA, we've got, like, you name it.

Johnny Capo [00:23:49]:

1st to score a basket, that's in there. Points, rebounds, assists, that's in. Rebounds, assists, everything. So it's all in there. I'm forgetting some of the markets. I haven't been NBA in so long, but, it's all in there. And, yeah. So we have that screen.

Johnny Capo [00:24:02]:

The app is completely free. You can just go to betsamp.com or betsamp.app or download at the App Store. Sorry for the plug. And, the pro screen, like, the actual odd screen is really good. The only way to buy it right now is to shoot us a DM on Twitter, and then we kinda, you know, discuss it and, you know, figure out a price and all that stuff. But, that's that's what's going on with the pro screen right now. Really cool tool. It's only for, like, guys who are trying to win and are actually winning at sports betting.

Johnny Capo [00:24:31]:

This is not the product where, you know, we're gonna be instructing you on, like, what arbitrage betting is or, like, what you know, why this is a good bet or why this is a bad bet. It's informational, and you do need you do need a brain to be able to use it. But, you know, everyone that's using it right now is making crazy money. And like I said, we're in the we're in the golden age for sports betting because you can actually get down on some of the shit, which is amazing.

Shane Mercer [00:24:56]:

Sounds sounds pretty great. Yeah. I mean, you know, I think we're we're reaching the right audience here. You know, everybody that that sort of tunes into our show or most of the people, you know, are people who are winning already or at least want to be long term winners. And, you know, it sounds like the kind of, tools and resources that maybe, you know, we might be using something similar already. But, you know, it it it sounds like you guys have a great, you know, suite of tools out there for sharp bettors who are or who are sort of already in that sort of head frame.

Johnny Capo [00:25:25]:

Exactly. Yeah. Exactly. That's and that's what it's about right now is I I do feel the industry has shifted a bit in a sense that the guys who used to be considered sharp bettors are now you know, there's some of them have stood the test of time, but a lot of people are more educated now, and they're starting to realize, okay. This guy wins. This is how he wins. This is what I can actually do, and this is a person I can trust and listen to and respect. Whereas in the past, it was just like, oh, this guy has this record.

Johnny Capo [00:25:54]:

He must be good when, you know, there's obviously a lot of things you can do to kinda manipulate and and and market towards that audience. I think that the customer right now is a lot more educated, the average bettor. I do think there's a large larger percentage than ever that actually wins betting sports. And whether that be, you know, winning a $100 a month or winning 10,000 or a 100,000 a month, I think the the number is consistently growing on how many people are actually winning.

Shane Mercer [00:26:20]:

Yeah. It would it would be interesting to sort of see what's what's out there in in terms of that. I wanna ask you because you mentioned Rob, and you you sort of just hit him up with a with a cold with a cold DM. But at what point along the way did did you join Circles Off? Was it before Betstamp, after Betstamp? And and how did that go where where you guys are like, hey. You know, we should do something more together?

Johnny Capo [00:26:42]:

K. First, I guess, the origin story. Rob and I went to the same high school, although about a decade apart. And, so, yeah, he's he's older than me. We so I I DM ed him, hey, buddy. We went to the same high school.

Shane Mercer [00:26:54]:

How often do you point that out?

Andrew Pace [00:26:58]:

He's like ya he in 10 years older than me.

Shane Mercer [00:26:59]:

At least 10 yeard older.

Johnny Capo [00:27:01]:

I just wanted to make it I just wanted to make it kinda known that, like, we went to the same high school, but it's not like I was in, you know, grade 10, and he was in grade 11.

Shane Mercer [00:27:08]:

Right. Right.

Johnny Capo [00:27:09]:

We just happen to attend the same high school. But Right. So we attend the same high school, so I I always like to personalize DMs and stuff. I don't just, like, ask for something. You know, I'd recommend anyone who's DMing anyone do the same thing. Like, you know, make it personal. Hey. I've been watching you, listening on this.

Johnny Capo [00:27:24]:

I know this guy this guy went to the same high school. Let's do this, this, and this. Any chance I can provide some value to you in this way? And started to kind of just being friends over that, you know, throughout the years, just built a friendship. I came to him with, like, the idea for BetStamp before he, like, you know, joined or anything like that. I was like, yes. This is what I'm gonna do. What do you think? He connected me with a bunch of people in the space as well. He kinda saw the vision and liked it.

Johnny Capo [00:27:51]:

But, ultimately, you know, for for him, it was about timing. And once we actually got everything going and started to have some success, I went to Rob's like, hey. You gotta join this. Like, we need you full time on here. And he's like, k. I'll think about it. Whatever. He obviously accepted.

Johnny Capo [00:28:06]:

He joined to to help us out on BetStamp. Eventually, while we were working there, I said, buddy, there's pretty much no good podcast in the space for sports betting advantage play right now. You know, obviously, this was many years ago. I'm like, well, we gotta start 1, me and you. Let's just start it, and we'll rip it. We we gotta just be organic, be natural. We have all the contacts. We have all the friends.

Johnny Capo [00:28:28]:

Like, we have we have the info. Like, let's just do it, and people will probably watch. And, you know, to date, it's been a slow grind, but we built it up to what it is today, and people actually watch. And now, you know, Rob, he's he's the the the a he's the man on the media side. He's doing everything. Like, look at the amount of content this guy's pumping out. He's literally the number one for sports betting, media. He's doing live watch alongs.

Johnny Capo [00:28:53]:

He's doing educational content. He's doing everything. Drama style shows. Like, it's but also super, super informative, and you can actually legitimately learn off of listening to these shows. Whereas when I was on the come up, like, I tried listening to stuff. I couldn't learn shit. Like, there's nothing available.

Shane Mercer [00:29:10]:

I'd agree with that a 100%, and it I would say it's still pretty star. You know? There there's not that much out there. And, that's why it's great to have you on the show and to have Rob, several months ago come on the show and just to connect with like minded people, which is what we're really about at Empire Live. It is really sort of, you know, bringing those those people together, which is fantastic. I gotta ask you because, you know, on this show, we talk a lot about the industry itself. We talk a lot about sort of, perhaps maybe some of the more nitty gritty things about what's going on in the industry, you know, in terms of regulation rolling out across the continent and and sort of different stages of where it's at. One of the big things we've been watching is, is the Massachusetts Gaming Council, for example, you know, where where they are doing a deep dive into limiting players at the individual level and and whether, you know, they think that that's something that should be allowed in that state. What about in the industry when you look at the industry really sort of grinds your gears or gets you, like, you know, get gets you going a little bit?

Johnny Capo [00:30:11]:

Honestly, man, nothing much. I'm a pretty easygoing guy. The end of the day, I it's the same in any industry. Like, if you're in an industry and that's your thing, then there's gonna be something that pisses you off. I learned this younger in my life, and it was a happy lesson for me to learn that there's really nothing in any industry that if you're like the man and you're actually doing stuff, that there's not people who are just, like, you know, making quick money scamming and doing something. So it's gonna happen anywhere. I, I learned it actually from talking to one of my best friends is, you know, in the online personal training space. He's a absolute killer.

Johnny Capo [00:30:49]:

He's doing really well. And the whole time when he was kinda coming up, it was him just getting mad about how these guys are doing this whole, like, get a 6 pack in 6 weeks and doesn't work like that. And, you know, everyone wants to buy that those products, but they don't wanna buy his, which are real. And, you know, for me, it was the same thing. I was like, wow. Everyone wants to just buy these shitty picks online, but nobody's actually, like, putting in the work. And then I would try to go, you know, get shredded and get a 6 pack, and I'm like, damn. I want that 6 pack in 6 weeks.

Johnny Capo [00:31:18]:

So it makes sense of why you wanna buy this product. Yeah. Just whatever industry you're in.

Andrew Pace [00:31:24]:

Great analogy.

Shane Mercer [00:31:25]:

Yeah. So those are the guys riding along. Their base.

Andrew Pace [00:31:29]:

Yeah. Well, of course. Johnny, super cool story, man. It's actually really crazy to think, you know, you go from betting on a hockey team in a way that maybe is a little bit unconventional, but also if you guys remember those sites, you had to put a couple picks together. You couldn't just bet a single. Right? So you're like, okay. Let's do the OV assist, you know, goal thing. And then that's led you to obviously what you're talking about when we started the show, the same game parlor in the NFL.

Andrew Pace [00:31:55]:

It's it's you know, I don't know how long it's been since that first day till now for you, but, you know, it still is the same thing that you're doing, which is is so cool. And, like, the story of, you know, being in your class and, like, really taking the modeling and everything to the next level and and and really owning that is, it's why you're so successful. It's really, really cool story. So huge congrats on all of that, and, it's inspirational, I'm sure, to a lot of our listeners and to Shane and myself, you know, with obviously the amount of things that you can do to win in this space. I always say there's a lot of ways to make money from betting on sports, and you're doing a lot of stuff that we aren't doing. It's always cool to hear about it.

Andrew Pace [00:32:36]:

And learn new new opportunities. I'm sure a couple guys that listen are gonna hit you up and say, hey. Saw the episode on Behind the Lines and, really interested in in BetStamp to to learn more about it. So I I hope you guys get some good traffic from that. Awesome stuff, man.

Johnny Capo [00:32:49]:

100%. Yeah. If you wanna reach out to me, I'm not I'm a kind of a private guy, but you can DM at BetStamp and just ask for me, and it'll find its way, to me. So that's the easiest way on Twitter. Or shoot an email, contact at BetStamp dot app. It'll just go through. But I don't have any social media of my own or anything like that, unfortunately.

Andrew Pace [00:33:07]:

Un unfortunately or fortunately?

Johnny Capo [00:33:09]:

Fortunately for me, I don't have any have any social media. I like it that way.

Shane Mercer [00:33:14]:

I love it.

Andrew Pace [00:33:15]:

When you said Rob's the media guy, just tell everyone, DM Rob.

Johnny Capo [00:33:19]:

They do. He gets he gets mad when he gets not he doesn't get mad. He'll he'll tell me all the time. Like, bro, people are d, and d, like yeah. Just, like, get your own thing. But

Shane Mercer [00:33:28]:

That's the big drop. Hey. Hey. Can you hook us up with Johnny? I wanna reach Johnny.

Johnny Capo [00:33:32]:

That's he does that about once a week. He'll send sends it. I want your contact.

Shane Mercer [00:33:36]:

Well, that that's hilarious. Okay. Before we let you go, there's something that you do on your show that I really like, and I I think it it does it it has a great effect with your guests, and that is you'll ask them a a few hypothetical questions. And the way they answer these questions can be very revealing. So I was hoping that maybe you could ask Pace and I a hypothetical question that might reveal something to our audience that they don't already know about us. But just to give an example out there, just so that our audience understands what I mean by it, I'm gonna throw a hypothetical question at you, Johnny. K? Are you is that cool?

Johnny Capo [00:34:12]:

Done buddy lets do it.

Shane Mercer [00:34:13]:

So so here here's the example for everybody out there. So, Johnny, would you rather be a podcast host or a podcast guest?

Johnny Capo [00:34:27]:

I would rather be a that there's oh, wow. It's hard

Andrew Pace [00:34:33]:

He wants to hit the neither button. I know he wants to hit the neither button.

Johnny Capo [00:34:36]:

Okay. Yeah. That that's probably true. I don't know I don't know how you're reading that off me. But, no, I I think k. I'd probably rather be a podcast host. And the reason there is, I like I'm a guy who likes to be in control.

Johnny Capo [00:34:53]:

If you guys listen to me, I I think it'd be pretty obvious from the podcast. I I like to have that level of control, so I wanna make sure stuff, like, goes well. You know what I mean? I always wanna be the guy steering the combo as opposed to letting it be steered. So I'd I'd choose podcast host. I feel like from a monetary standpoint, you're a podcast host. You have the chance to grow your show and make money there. If you're a guest, probably not as much, but you might be selling something, and you make money off there. So I don't know.

Johnny Capo [00:35:17]:

Good question, but I I'll I'd rather be a host.

Shane Mercer [00:35:19]:

I I like it. I like it. There we go. Alright. Now your turn.

Johnny Capo [00:35:24]:

Honestly, I'll I could bring one back because on the spot here that I haven't haven't brought up in a while, but, we listed this what used to be my signature. Producer Zach acted walked into the room I'm I'm in for those of you who who listen to Circles Off as well.

Andrew Pace [00:35:38]:

Whats up, Zach?

Johnny Capo [00:35:39]:

We're gonna do we're gonna go with the Billy flip. That's my favorite question of all time. I don't know if you guys have heard of it. Have you, Pace or Shane? No. Oh, this is incredible, and I'm happy you haven't heard it. Okay. So this is a question I made up myself actually from, inspiration from a few others. The $1,000,000,000 flip.

Johnny Capo [00:35:59]:

K? This is how it works. You have a coin. Heads or tails, regular coin, nothing fixed, you know, no funny business, regular coin, heads or tails. Okay? You have to call it in the air. If you hit, you win. If you lose, you lose. Okay? So that's that's it. It's just a 5050 bet.

Johnny Capo [00:36:17]:

You do it one time only. You can never do it again. You have a one time in your life. Okay? If you win, you win $1,000,000,000. Okay? Obviously, a life changing amount of money for almost anybody. If you win, you win $1,000,000,000. Okay? If you lose, you get nothing. Alright?

Shane Mercer [00:36:33]:

K. So

Johnny Capo [00:36:34]:

that's the flip. And if I told you, hey. Would you like to play? Obviously, you're gonna play. Right? So assuming you're set to play, but someone's offering you a cash out. So you need to now say, alright. I'm gonna sell this flip to somebody else. What is the lowest amount of money that you would sell that flip for? I haven't asked the question in a while, so maybe that's not the most clear. But for example, if I said, hey.

Johnny Capo [00:36:57]:

I'll buy that flip off you for a grand. You're gonna tell me to go kick rocks. But if I said, I'll buy it off you for 500,000,000, which is the fair EV, you'd probably sell that given, you know, reducing your variance. So what is the amount that you would sell that flip at? Lowest

Andrew Pace [00:37:15]:

That's a great question because right away, you start wondering how you would actually be able to sell the full 500 because that's what it is. It's not the full billion. It's the full 500 because that's the fair price. And you'd have to have someone that's actually gonna offer that to you. So you know that whomever is buying it is comfortable with taking the risk, and they're charging you for it.

Johnny Capo [00:37:37]:

Well, no one's gonna pay 500 for it. They might pay 4

Shane Mercer [00:37:40]:

Exactly. Yeah.

Johnny Capo [00:37:41]:

Yeah. Exactly.

Andrew Pace [00:37:42]:

So so can you find someone that would buy it for $475,000,000? That's $25,000,000 of theoretical edge that they're receiving on the on the wager. And then they're that's how derivatives work. Then they're gonna go sell it to the next person, the next person, and then you're gonna get down to potentially 100 of 1,000. So

Johnny Capo [00:38:00]:

So that is the best answer I've ever heard. No one's ever no one has ever mentioned selling it as a derivative some sort of institution.

Andrew Pace [00:38:10]:

Well thats how the world works. But the so but the question for me, though, is, like like, if you just throw that scenario at me and you're telling me I even got $5,000,000 out of it, and you you put me in the position, I'll be like, hell, yeah. I'll take the 5 mil. But, no, in this spot, it's big, big money. So I think I think in I I think 450,000,000 is is fair. That that would be my number.

Johnny Capo [00:38:31]:

But forget about whats fair. What would be what is the lowest amount you would take from that right now. So you you have to you and where it's basically like one shot, you say, alright. I will not sell this for less than 4.50 mil. And if I say no, I'm not buying it for 4.50 mil, you're flipping. And then you're going 0 or a bill.

Andrew Pace [00:38:48]:

I don't have to go I don't have to go through you.

Johnny Capo [00:38:51]:

Let's say it was right now. Just me and you.

Andrew Pace [00:38:52]:

Okay. Right now? Right now, okay. There's so there's no ability to do the things that I'm referencing.

Johnny Capo [00:39:00]:

No. You can't you can't you have to basically flip or sell it for this low the this lower amount.

Andrew Pace [00:39:08]:

I guarantee of every time you've asked this question, this is the longest explanation that's ever occurred.

Johnny Capo [00:39:12]:

No. No. No. I I this is my favorite question. So I I actually asked it too many times to guess on the pod that people were like, hey. Enough with the billy with the billy flip.

Andrew Pace [00:39:21]:

Oh my god. Jeez. Oh, that's really interesting question because you have to take a life changing amount of money. But then as soon as you say the number, you know that you're passing up theoretically 20 to 1 on on the heads on the wrong side of the coin, which is crazy a crazy bad bet.

Johnny Capo [00:39:37]:

I only like asking it to gamblers. The way the reason I actually kinda got this question, I think it was from mister Beast, the YouTuber, where he was asking people, like, would you want a $100 or flip for a 1,000? And everyone was like, give me the 100. Or I think it might maybe it was like, do you want a $1,000 or flip for 10 k? And for those amounts of money, for guys like us who have actually bet.

Andrew Pace [00:39:59]:

Well, we're flipping every time.

Johnny Capo [00:40:00]:

Obviously, you'd flip every time. You're not gonna take 1 k on a on a, you know, on a 5 k EV. But then I started to kind of ask myself, okay. Would I take would I take a mil, or would I flip for a 100? Obviously, I'm flipping for a 100. You know what I mean? And then it was like, hey. Would I take a 100, or would I flip for a 1,000,000,000? And now at that point, it's kinda where you need to you need to ask yourself.

Andrew Pace [00:40:21]:

I I I can't pass up 10 to 1 on the I can't pass up 10 to 1. I'm I'm I'm I'll do I'll I'll take 200 mil.

Johnny Capo [00:40:29]:

200? So you wouldnt take 199.

Andrew Pace [00:40:31]:

I'll Pass up 5 to 1. I'm still that 5 to 1 is still in my head, and I would still even if I lost, I'd still be mad that I passed up 5-1.

Johnny Capo [00:40:40]:

If I offered you right now 199 mil, you you don't take that?

Andrew Pace [00:40:43]:

That five's the number. The 5 to 1.

Andrew Pace [00:40:45]:

Yep. It's it's 200 for me. Yeah.

Johnny Capo [00:40:48]:

You're cashing out at 200, not a dollar less. If not, you're flipping.

Andrew Pace [00:40:51]:

And I'm still not sleeping well about the decision. It's a bad theoretical decision, period.

Johnny Capo [00:40:56]:

Alright, Shane. Give us your number. You know,

Shane Mercer [00:40:59]:

I I I'm nowhere near, I'm not I'm not I'm nowhere near the math guy that that paces there. And, you know, like, he instantly went to the derivatives. Like, you know, I'm sitting here going in my mind, like, obviously, I'd you know, I I think I would sell it for for the for the for the EV of 500 mil, but then I'm sitting there going to myself, like, my life is a certain way today. And if I got 500 mil, that'd be fucking amazing. Yeah. But I have a 50.50 shot at a bill. I'm gonna fucking flip it. Let's go.

Shane Mercer [00:41:28]:

I'm flipping it. I'm flipping it. No. I'm slipping for a 1,000,000,000. Fuck it. Let's go. That's that's that's where I'm at.

Johnny Capo [00:41:35]:

Some serious math guys actually did the math to, like, crank out what your net worth would have to be for you to flip. It was it was pretty high. And I I I was initially considering, like, oh, I'd flip, but I think I'd probably come down. I realize now if you get if you just take a 100 mil clean, you're gonna run that to a bill in your with just sheer time anyways.

Shane Mercer [00:41:56]:

That's a good point, actually. That's a good point. You could get there with another bill easy.

Johnny Capo [00:41:59]:

I I don't I don't know what the answer is, but, yeah, if you're, I guess, comment below. Comment comment on below if you have, your number. But, like, I don't know. I I mean, listen. 10 mil is life changing for almost anybody. Right? 10,000,000 is life changing, but are you gonna really take 10 mil and you could flip for a bill? It seems No.

Andrew Pace [00:42:16]:

No. You can't. You the math doesn't make sense. The math is the math is never gonna make sense with what you take. Other this is why this is how insurance exists. You know that. Right? So the math of insurance never makes sense. When you when you run these probabilities when you're in university, if you do any sort of statistics or math class, And they actually will run the decision tree or the probability tree where they say, should you buy insurance or not? And the math tells you no, but the answer is actually yes because of your actual ability to cover the loss of what you're insuring.

Andrew Pace [00:42:49]:

So then you end up buying it, and it makes sense to buy it because of the actual reality of these things occurring regardless of the probability of them. This is a similar situation. It's just the the reverse of it.

Johnny Capo [00:43:01]:

Yeah. An insurance company is just, like, compounding and stacking, like, 1,000,000 of minus a 100,000 positive EV bets.

Shane Mercer [00:43:09]:

Yeah. That's what they're Yeah. Exactly.

Johnny Capo [00:43:10]:

And they're just cashing they're just cashing a couple percent on those bets. Yeah. Making sense. So yeah. I know. That's that that was actually one of my favorite hypothetical questions. I think it tells a lot. The Billy flip.

Johnny Capo [00:43:21]:

I think it tells a lot about a person because, you know, most people, if given the situation, most people in the world, if given the situation to get $10,000 in their hand or flip for a 100,000, most people in the world, like 99% plus, would take the 10,000 and not gamble that on the flip. And I think it's telling once you realize that 99

Johnny Capo [00:43:45]:

People out of a 100 would take the money and not gamble it even though they're foregoing 40 k in EV. So it it's just shows you where people are at and then shows you why there's so few winning, gamblers.

Shane Mercer [00:43:56]:

Yes. Yeah. Absolutely. Love it, Johnny. Well, that that was a lot of fun, and, really appreciate you coming on the show, chopping it up with us, asking the hypothetical question. I feel like, you know, I'm I'm a part of the group now, and I'm really, really really, really love it, man. It was great having you on the show. And, any last message for our audience out there before we before we say goodbye? I know they can't find you anywhere.

Johnny Capo [00:44:20]:

The the only thing I'd like to plug, to be honest, is, we do our own shows myself, my co host Rob Pizzola. You can follow him on Twitter. You can follow our show at circles off HQ on Twitter. We do once a week, video show on YouTube and audio where you can find it. It's called Circles Off Sports Betting Podcast. If you like this, it'll be right up your alley. We have a lot of great guests on, in the sports betting space. And a lot of times, it's just us, shooting the shit about real gambling strategies.

Johnny Capo [00:44:48]:

If you watch the show, there's a very, very, very high chance you'll pick something up that will help you win, unlike these, you know, NFL preview week week 6 shows, which not gonna be true.

Johnny Capo [00:45:01]:

Sorry about that, boys.

Shane Mercer [00:45:02]:

No. No. It's all good. It's all good. We do always get a little different angle to it, but we have to call ourselves out sometimes. Alright. Thanks, Johnny.

Johnny Capo [00:45:10]:

Alright. Have a good one, guys. Thank you for having me on. I really appreciate it.

Shane Mercer [00:45:13]:

Alright. Take care. Alright. Time to dive into our new segment that I'm dubbing grinding with Gosu. We've got the great Gosu himself here, John Wilson, joining us once again. John, we had great feedback to you joining us last week and kind of, breaking down the NFL slate and the NFL week ahead. So, why don't we do that again, and, we'll start there with the NFL.

Andrew Pace [00:45:34]:

Yeah. So I think last week, a couple of the teaser recommendations that we gave actually came came through. Not that that's why we're doing it. But I think people got good value from, you know, some of that stuff where you have, you know, nice plus with an under and and that kind of an under being an indicator of of of what to take. But I just have to say after coming off week 5 of the NFL, it is so freaking nice to have 6 early games.

Andrew Pace [00:45:57]:

Like, we have another London game this week, and it's 6 again Yep. This week. And, like, for just the managing of it and your brain process, I don't know what it is. Even that 7th game can just make things a little bit more tricky. I think it's really good advice for anyone that listens from a betting standpoint. Don't worry about every game that's on all the time. And I think we do a really good job of that with college football because there's so many games on that we just choose the 5 or 4, 2, or even 1 sometimes that's gonna be a good game for us. And you should take the same approach with some of these busy NFL slates.

Andrew Pace [00:46:29]:

So, John, we're starting off with Thursday Night Football. The niners are at the Seahawks division game, always tricky. Niners minus 3.

GosuThune [00:46:37]:

Yeah. I make this I think that line's pretty sharp. I the the thing that stood out to me is I just think this total is really high for a prime time game outdoors in a divisional matchup with Seattle. You know, you can always get some, like, humidity, some rain, some wind there. I don't know what the weather looks like, but Seattle looked terrible against Giants. So I just thought and we don't know what the niners kicker situation is. So, I probably tapped that under a little bit early in the week, and I think that number is gonna go down. So that number just stood out to me.

GosuThune [00:47:04]:

Thought it was pretty high.

Andrew Pace [00:47:05]:

Alright. Then we're heading to London. Jags plus 2a half at the Bears. Yeah.

GosuThune [00:47:11]:

I know. I know. You know, this is, like, kind of like a home game for the Jags. Right? Like, they're used to playing over there, and they're an underdog, which I think is You know, they're they've been bad, but I think this is actually a really good spot for a teaser. Speaking of teasers, you know, the total is about 44. It's about, like, as high as I typically wanna go for a teaser. In Jacksonville, like, they won that game, but they came off like a spread loss. And a lot of times, catching extra points with a teaser when a team just came off a spread loss is a really good strategy.

Andrew Pace [00:47:38]:

Bucks plus 2 at the Saints?

GosuThune [00:47:42]:

Yeah. I think this is a higher total, but I still love the teaser here, divisional matchup. I like the fact that the Bucks are coming off, a longer rest period. You know, the Saints are playing on Monday night football. The Bucks played on Thursday night, so that's 3 extra days of rest. That's a pretty big deal. And then, you know, the back door is always open with Baker, and that that offense that can move it. So I really like teasing them in this game.

Andrew Pace [00:48:04]:

Cardinals plus 5a half at the Packers.

GosuThune [00:48:07]:

Oh, man. I don't really like much in this game. I was gonna look at the weather. I think there's supposed to be, like, some wind, maybe some rain, and it's Kyler outdoors. So I was just gonna kinda wait and see what the weather looked like in that game.

Andrew Pace [00:48:19]:

Awesome. Browns plus 8a half at Eagles?

GosuThune [00:48:23]:

I think the Browns are, so I make this line like Eagles minus 5a half, but I just think the Browns are totally unbeatable. So, like, I'll probably just take the Eagles because I think until they get rid of Watson, they're just I he he Watson walked off the field when Stefanski was trying to go for it on 4th down, and he just didn't acknowledge that that was happening. I mean, he's he's quit. So until he as long as he's a quarterback, I think you just have to bet against them.

Andrew Pace [00:48:48]:

Texans minus 7 on the road in New England.

GosuThune [00:48:51]:

Yeah. I think I think this line's pretty sharp. I I can't lay it with Stroud on the road, but I think it's a really good spot to tease the Texans down. I think this Patriots team is is just they're they're just dreadful. I mean, they lost to Tyler Huntley and his he's been with the team for a week, you know, out right at home last week. So

Andrew Pace [00:49:07]:

Probably the most exciting matchup of the week, and the hype is big, and we're getting them as a big underdog. So we got the Commandos plus 6a half at the Ravens.

GosuThune [00:49:18]:

Yeah. Another another game. I think that line's pretty good. I just think there's gonna be a ton of points if the weather is good in this game. You know? So I think that total is really high. It's, like, 52, but, I mean, this the commandos games, they just they just find a way to go over. And then that Ravens game, there's 76 points or whatever it was in that in that game yesterday. So crazy.

Andrew Pace [00:49:37]:

Chargers minus 3 on the road in Denver?

GosuThune [00:49:41]:

Yes. Interesting. Chargers off a buy. I just got kinda like I like the Broncos at home, and the the elevation is still early in the season. Beau Nicks is you know, he throws the ball 3 yards at a time, but he doesn't really make mistakes. It's, I that total's really low, but it probably deserves to be really low. So yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:50:00]:

Steelers minus 3 in Vegas.

GosuThune [00:50:04]:

Man, I think this is a good spot for a teaser again. Get the Raiders up to through 7 or 6, 7, and 8. I think I I like the under in this game again even though it's really low, but I'm I'm afraid to take it because I'm afraid of, turnovers with 2 really good pass rushing teams, Havoc creators and Justin Fields and maybe Aidan O'Connell as quarterback. I just I can't take it under any game like that, so I'll just take the the points with the teaser.

Andrew Pace [00:50:29]:

2 of the 5 weeks with, the Raiders, the games have been shockingly under until the Q4.

GosuThune [00:50:36]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:50:36]:

Yes. Yesterday being a prime example of it. Yeah. They seem to continue to fight down 21, 28 points. They've been a tough team for unders. So, yeah, I think that I'd run for the hills on that game personally. Falcons minus 6 against the Panthers.

GosuThune [00:50:51]:

You know, what a nasty game. I'll probably have to just hold my nose and take the 6a half, with the Panthers, maybe 7 if it gets there, but I probably won't even watch that game.

Andrew Pace [00:51:03]:

Lions minus 3a half in Dallas. That's probably the other big, big exciting match of the week.

GosuThune [00:51:09]:

Yeah. I, actually make this close to a pick. I don't really understand why they're laying so many points. I guess, maybe the optics of that game, the Steelers, the Monday night football game, which is how nasty it seemed to look, but Dallas, like, dominated that game. I mean, if you watch that game, they got in what do we say? They got in the red zone, like, 6 times. They scored maybe 3 of those times. But, I mean, they just dominated. So I I'm not gonna I'm gonna stay away, because I just can't trust them to not turn the ball over, but I don't I just don't agree with that that line at all, personally.

Andrew Pace [00:51:38]:

Sunday night football, Cincinnati against the New York Giants. Cincinnati is 3a half on the road.

GosuThune [00:51:43]:

Yeah. That that Giants plus 3a half is just staring me in the face right now. Really staring me in the face. This Bengal seem it's like I just don't know how much of our perception of the Bengals is just from the last few years. I mean, they played a lot of they played these close games, but they just can't get it done. So I just I can't back them.

Andrew Pace [00:52:03]:

And then an interesting one because the Bills are coming off 2 losses in a row here, and the Jets are in trouble. Monday night football bills, Jets bills minus 2 and a half.

Shane Mercer [00:52:12]:

Big ones in the division.

GosuThune [00:52:14]:

It is. It's a big one. So the I've I don't know that I've ever seen a game that has as many trends pointing towards the Jets as this one. I just I have a lot of trends that I that I follow and stuff, and it's just kind of incredible. I I really hope it gets to 3, and I'll definitely be taking the Jets because that's just what a what a tough spot. It's a low total division game at home. I think it's good for teasers. I think I like the under in the game, and I like the Jets side.

GosuThune [00:52:40]:

It's just one of those I think it could be a nasty game.

Andrew Pace [00:52:42]:

Nice. So for college football, last Saturday, we saw more upsets of the top 10 than I think I can ever remember. And it seemed a little bit shocking because usually at this point in the season, there's quite a quite a bit of an established dominance towards those top 5 teams. Yeah. Some upsets happen in college football. But is there anything that kinda stands out to you this coming week from both a future standpoint with the the playoff and obviously, with any any, games on the menu that that stick out.

GosuThune [00:53:13]:

You know, I think that last last week was kind of interesting because there there were a lot of top 10 teams, but that lost. But I think a lot of them like, I don't I personally haven't had Missouri or Michigan in my top ten ever this year, like, even to start the season. I Missouri, I I liked some futures on because I like their schedule, but I just from a talent standpoint, I don't they didn't really belong to me. So I think there are a couple fake top 10 teams that lost yesterday, but it's good for the good for the headlines. Like, Michigan was an underdog in that game. But, you know, so this week, there's a couple really good matchups. So the the the couple big ones, Texas, Oklahoma, the Red River Rivalry, This game is always insane. I I just this might be one of the biggest spreads I can ever remember on this game.

GosuThune [00:53:56]:

Texas is, like, minus 15 or something like that, probably deservingly so. I think this Oklahoma team is just not very good. You know, Tennessee really struggled and lost to Arkansas on the road last week. They really just kinda dominated Oklahoma, especially in the second half a few weeks ago. That now is just to mean way more about Oklahoma. That team's just not very good. So I I I probably just will pass on that game because those rivalry games you're trying to lay 2 touchdowns is just just not a good spot. And then you at the same time in the afternoon, you have Penn State at USC.

GosuThune [00:54:28]:

So USC was number 11. They went down. They fell all the way out of the rankings, which is which is hilarious. It's not like it's easy to go from the West Coast up to Minnesota and play outdoors at nighttime. You know? I I don't like, I don't I I think that loss isn't as bad as people seem to think it is. No. I'm not sure USC is that great either. But, you know, USC, I I actually make this game close to a pick.

GosuThune [00:54:51]:

I think Penn State's laying, like, 5a half or something like that. You know, so when I look at this game, I just see both offenses are just outside the top 100 in explosiveness. USC, their their defense is in the bottom of, like, of rushing metrics, havoc metrics. So I I think Penn State's gonna be able to move the ball slowly and just kinda grind this game down. So, actually, I like the under in this game, but I just can't lay points with, with a small game James on the road there in a game that needs to win to to get in the playoff probably. So, next toward the a lot of a lot of good games at night, Tennessee, Florida. This is just a rivalry game from history. Florida's not very good, but I think there's a little I really wanna highlight this game because I think it's really good buy low sell high spot here.

GosuThune [00:55:40]:

Florida coming off 2 straight wins, one against Mississippi State who is easily the worst SCC team. They're a dumpster fire, and then they beat a corpse of a UCF team that everybody had really hyped in, before the season. And, they just looked just they showed up, like, dead on arrival in that game. So I don't know. We made a lot of money on betting on that game in Florida and that game, as you know, on Saturday. So I don't know what that was. And then Tennessee, like, they're just a different team at home. They're they're starting, you know, Nico's a red shirt.

GosuThune [00:56:10]:

It's his 1st year as a starter. That Oklahoma game, like I said, way more about Oklahoma. Tennessee secondary is really weak. I think Florida can get a backdoor here, so I'm not really interested in laying the that, 2 touchdowns for the whole game. I do really like the first half, though. I think Josh Heiple is the most profitable coach in history, covering the first half spread. Florida defense outside the top 100 in success rate, bottom half in line yards for the run. So I think Tennessee is just gonna run the ball all over him in the first half.

GosuThune [00:56:39]:

So I really like them in the first half there. And then, also in the late slate, we have the biggest matchup of the day, probably Ohio State Oregon. So Ohio State, I I have this close to a touchdown favorite. I think it's about 3a half, 4 right now, so I definitely like the Ohio State side of some other reasons for that. You know, Oregon just hasn't looked very good. I can't trust Dylan Gabriel at all, especially playing what'll be the by far the best defense he's played against, all season long. Will Howard is definitely not as talented as past Ohio State quarterbacks like Justin Fields, CJ Stroud. But he has played in a lot of big games when he was at Kansas State, and he's played well in them.

GosuThune [00:57:21]:

You know, last year, they lost an overtime game at Texas, and he was 26 of 41, 300 plus yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception. He's played in big games, hostile environments. Don't think it'll really faze him at all. Oregon's bottom 10 in standard down explosiveness on defense. Bottom 5 in rush explosiveness. So I just think Ohio State's gonna find some huge plays on the ground and then really, really get it in the end zone. And then, Ole Miss, LSU, our friend, Lane Kiffin. Back to back to haunt us again, I'm sure.

GosuThune [00:57:55]:

So LSU is coming off a buy. I I really don't think this LSU team is very good at all. I think Ole Miss is better than they showed when they lost to Kentucky because I think Kentucky is actually a legitimate team. I mean, you know, Kentucky probably could've could've and should've won against Georgia. They did win against Ole Miss. I think Kentucky is just good. I have them, power rated close to my like, in the top ten almost, in in my rankings. So I don't think that's really a bad loss at all.

GosuThune [00:58:24]:

The I I do just I struggle to see, why this total is so high, in this game. It's like 66a half it opened up. It's crazy. So I I've already bet the under. Ole Miss is a defensive team. Their defense is better than their offense, which which is not what Kiffin's known for. But that's how they're playing this year, and that's kind of where the talent is stacked. So Ole Miss is, number 3 in success rate offensively.

GosuThune [00:58:51]:

LSU's defense is number 89. So I think Ole Miss will be able to move the ball. But LSU generates a lot of negative plays, so I think some of those drives are actually gonna take a long time, to score. And both of these teams are in the bottom half of the nation in explosiveness on offense. So I think scoring is gonna come in long methodical drives, not in chunk plays. So when you got a total that's in the mid sixties, it's just hard to get to that number.

Andrew Pace [00:59:14]:

Very hard to get to that number. I mean, the clock keeps running now. Right? So Yep. That's insane, Gosu. Shane, you wanna top anything off there with, your analysis? Or

Shane Mercer [00:59:25]:

That's a good one, base. Because I'm I'm sure I'm not gonna go The only thing I have to say in all of this as we went down through the through both slates is that it is, like, a a tragedy that we are gonna have to watch Cincinnati and the Giants on Sunday Night Football instead of Detroit at Dallas. They gotta flex that. Like, the Detroit Dallas game is like, I wanna watch that in prime time. Cincinnati at the Giants, like, what are these teams? 13, both of them or something like that? Like, no. Thank you. Anyway Well, that's all that's all I got.

Andrew Pace [00:59:59]:

I just love having different teams on prime time. I know we're gonna get a we're I know we're gonna get a solid dose of Detroit and and Dallas this year. So I'll I'll take anything that isn't, isn't those same teams over and over personally, and

Shane Mercer [01:00:10]:

I think the NFL knows that. They've really fucked up their scheduling with the whole let's ride era in Denver where we had to watch fucking Russ every single night 2 years ago. Yeah. That was right. Last year with the Jets and Aaron going down in in week 1, just obviously brutal. And then the Jets just were watching mofo and the boys, Zach Wilson just come out every single day. Just these horrid, horrid football games. So I think we're seeing a little bit more of that this season them just knowing like, hey.

Andrew Pace [01:00:38]:

You know, we can't put all our eggs in one basket. Like, let's show some different teams. And as bad as Sunday night football was this last week from, like, a entertainment and viewing standpoint, would I rather watch Bengals, Ravens, Sunday night football? Sure. But I liked seeing the Justin Fields Steelers team on prime time just to get to know that team a little bit more, get get our eye eyeballs on them when, you know, that might be a team that's just buried in that that 10 AM Pacific, 1:1 PM EST slate where you don't even end up paying attention to them. Right?

Shane Mercer [01:01:09]:

Yeah. Well, I think the league knows that no matter what, we're probably gonna watch it. It doesn't matter it doesn't matter who it is. We'll be tuning in. Alright. What what a what an episode, guys. John, looking forward to bringing you back again next week, and I think we'll keep this going, because I think there's a lot of actionable, intel there that that our, audience can take away if if they look at, you know, whether it influences their their live betting or whether they wanna make some some pregame plays themselves. So, John, thanks so so much for for doing that.

Shane Mercer [01:01:36]:

And I think, we'll just about wrap it up there. So to pace, to John, to our guest of the week, Johnny out there, and to all of the sports bettors tuning in from around the world till next week, guys. Keep beating those books.

Andrew Pace [01:01:47]:

And if you wanna tell Gosu's calls, all of them are available at the lowest juice at Pinnacle. Head over to pinnacle.comforward/inplaylive.

Shane Mercer [01:01:57]:

There you go. Take them at Pinnacle. Alright, guys. See you later. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download, and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below.

Shane Mercer [01:02:13]:

And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code BEHINDTHELINES.