Episode 82

Colin Davey [00:00:00]:

I think Pinnacle actually get I let me not answer your question in another interesting way. Just because I feel like because I brought it up.

Andrew Pace [00:00:09]:

You're a PR guy working overtime today Colin.

Shane Mercer [00:00:24]:

Hello, and welcome to another episode of Behind the Lines, a podcast powered by Pinnacle and Purifying the sports betting industry. Remember to, like, download, subscribe, follow us on all the socials @inplayLIVE. I'm your host, Shane Mercer. We've got the founder of inplayLIVE in the house as always, Andrew Pace over there, and we've got the great Gosu with us right off the top. John Wilson is here. We'll grind the week ahead with him in just a moment. But also on today's show, we've got Colin Davy, the founder of Betscope, joining us to talk data science, how he beats the books, and even how he beat Jeopardy. So that's coming up a little later in the show.

Shane Mercer [00:00:59]:

But first, a public victory over the books this weekend in the NFL. For those who don't know, sportsbooks everywhere took a beating on the NFL this past weekend. That's because favorites reigned supreme with many of them not only winning, but covering the spread to a couple of quick quotes from you here. Joe Brennan, a friend of the show, a guy we had on recently, he's the executive chair of Prime Sports, a sharp book. He was quoted on Sunday as saying, what a shit day today in the NFL. Not good for him.

Andrew Pace [00:01:32]:

Sorry, John.

Shane Mercer [00:01:33]:

Another, BetMGM exec said we had a decent day in the early window, but it's all gone after the Lions kneeled it out. What a smash they put on, the Cowboys. Here here's another guy, another exec saying we got smashed on the Steelers win, ahead of the Sunday night or another C suite executive at a sportsbook said it's the worst day of the season so far. This could get really ugly if the Bengals win in cover. Well, guess what? They did. And then the Bills winning was the cherry on top of the shit Sunday for the sportsbooks. So chances are many of you out there know someone who hit a long shot parlay is celebrating a big win in some way. I had a great weekend betting live with you guys, but it wasn't because I bet any pregame minuses or anything like that.

Shane Mercer [00:02:23]:

I think it would have happened regardless. But what do you guys think about the masses cashing in?

Andrew Pace [00:02:27]:

Well, John, you'd also mentioned the Bengals. The books got middled on the Bengals. So what what happened there?

GosuThune [00:02:32]:

Well, the the game last night, they got middled on the total. Right? They got middled on the they had opened at 44, closed at 42, and landed on 43. And then they really needed the Jets, and they didn't get them either. Bills won and covered. So, I mean, that one was did the bloodbath. They wouldn't stop. Really bad. Yeah.

GosuThune [00:02:47]:

Like, they were yeah. It was like I saw it was, like, the worst week in, like, 30 years. I know my I pregame. I typically align myself with the books. I got clobbered pregame, but like you said, Shane, we had a amazing day, especially, on Sunday. So, got it all back and then some.

Andrew Pace [00:03:01]:

So the from from a pregame standpoint, though, I've I've had days where I hear the sportsbooks cleaned up. I've had days where the public's cleaned up, and and in both of those circumstances, we have cleaned up. So, I don't think there's a correlation with what we do necessarily with the public or the sportsbooks winning necessarily. I think it's more so just finding vulnerabilities live. But I love how the verbiage about this massacre to the sportsbook is almost like we need to feel sorry for them. You know? So, like, the sportsbooks could move the lines more. There was a lot of single score favorites. So less than a score or less favorites.

Andrew Pace [00:03:39]:

Was there even the Eagles were minus 8. Yep. It was the only one. Yeah. I think they were the only double digit

GosuThune [00:03:44]:

Texans minus 7 maybe. It was, like, on a flat number, but 6a half. So Oh, right. Same with the Ravens

Andrew Pace [00:03:50]:

was a was a flat number as well. Yeah. The you know, 7. But but, anyways, you know, thinking back to to Peyton Manning playing the Jags, Broncos Jags, he was minus 18a half opened, and I think it might have closed at, like, minus 21a half. They didn't cover that game, but, you know, I've seen some Chiefs Raiders recently in the last few years, minus 14a half, spreads like that. And, the sportsbooks put themselves in a vulnerable position to an extent as well when the lines are are are that low, I would say.

GosuThune [00:04:20]:

Yeah. Well, I think it was the worst, like, 5 weeks for the public in 20 years to start the season. And so it was like all these double they're the 2 score underdogs winning and winning outright. Right? So they were they were due for they were due for a good day, you know, a lot of havoc.

Andrew Pace [00:04:36]:

Yeah. So, like, survivor pools, it I think last week, there's a lot of pools that had 0 people eliminated after the craziest bloodbath Yeah. You know, in survivor history. So it's it's kinda goes hand in hand.

Shane Mercer [00:04:47]:

Yeah. Yeah. A nice reprieve for the public out there to to, you know, celebrate some wins, maybe recoup some of those losses. And, you know, I think the sportsbooks, you know, pace, you're kinda it's like, it's red guy.

Shane Mercer [00:04:57]:

That stuff is like, oh, boohoo sportsbooks. But I think that, you know, they're actually gonna benefit in the long run from this, from that kind of a weekend. Right? They're they're gonna have all those bettors coming back with that money they won feeling confident, feeling great about themselves, only to hand it all back. You know?

Andrew Pace [00:05:11]:

Well, they they knew it. Right? They knew it. Yeah. They knew. I knew I knew this was gonna win. Right?

Andrew Pace [00:05:17]:

And they're gonna know its gonna win the next however many weeks and see see where it gets them haha

Shane Mercer [00:05:20]:

There we go. Well, on this show, we don't pretend to know anything about what is going to happen, but we do like to take a look at what's on the menu and perhaps where some advantages might be able to be had. So why don't we put our nose to the grindstone with Gosu here? Gosu, what do you got for the week coming up in the world of football?

GosuThune [00:05:40]:

Yeah. I mean, do we we can start with college football. Just talk about there's 2, main games this week. Only there's only 3 ranked matchups, I believe, but only 2 that I really wanna talk about. So the first one is, Alabama at Tennessee. So both of these teams, are have had the sign of the same trajectory over the last 3 weeks. 3 weeks ago, they won, big games against Georgia and Oklahoma, respectively. 2 weeks ago, they both got upset on the road against Vandy and Arkansas, respectively.

GosuThune [00:06:08]:

And then this past week, they've squeaked out narrow winds at home against, South Carolina and Florida, respectively. So, kind of interesting. Both teams have gone on a downturn after those big wins. Tennessee is a slight underdog at home. I think Tennessee should be favored in that game, so I'm probably gonna, back them as a home dog against Alabama, which I don't think this Alabama team is is what it has been.

GosuThune [00:06:29]:

And then the other game is Georgia at Texas. Texas is a small favorite. I think I opened at minus 3. I bet them at minus 3.

GosuThune [00:06:36]:

I think that number is gonna go up close to 5a half, 6. I don't think it'll get past 6, but I like Texas. I think they're just better all around team than Georgia. I don't think this is the same Georgia of the last 5 years. The depth just isn't there so I like Texas.

Shane Mercer [00:06:47]:

Cool. Cool. Alright. What about over in the NFL

Andrew Pace [00:06:50]:

We're starting off, Thursday night football. We have the Broncos, Saints, the Sean Payton revenge game. The Broncos are favored on the road.

GosuThune [00:06:59]:

Yeah. The so the Saints were 3 and a half point underdogs to the Bucks, who I think we agree are a good football team. And I'm kind of it's they're telling me that Denver's one point worse than the Bucks. That seems that seems off to me. So I I think this is a really good teaser spot for the Saints at home, really low total.

Andrew Pace [00:07:15]:

We're back to London. Holy fuck was that bad on Sunday. The Jags look like they don't belong in the Football League. So or in the in the NFL. Now they're 5 and a half point favorites to the Patriots.

GosuThune [00:07:24]:

Yeah. I just say, like, I don't want anything to do with this game.

Andrew Pace [00:07:28]:

Next. Titans plus 9 at the Bills.

GosuThune [00:07:32]:

Yeah. It's a bit so it's a big number. I'd I'd the Bills are a little bit fraudulent to me, but I I kinda just like the under in this game. That Tennessee defense is good. I think the weather might be a little iffy. I I like the under in this one.

Andrew Pace [00:07:43]:

K. Miami, dumpster fire against plus 3a half.

GosuThune [00:07:48]:

Yeah. I think Richardson's gonna be back. It seems like under balled me. I think that totals are actually I think what? Only 2 games went under last week. Totals are actually pretty high. There's a lot of totals in the mid forties, upper forties. I don't think this is one of them, but I still I like a lot of unders this week, so I like the under in this one.

Andrew Pace [00:08:02]:

Okay. And then what should be Sunday night football? The lions plus 2a half at the Vikings.

GosuThune [00:08:09]:

Yeah. I so I bet this one had opened the lions plus 2. It's gone up to 2a half. I think the Lions are gonna be a massive public dog, but I just think at some point, the magic on this Minnesota train has to come to an end. I don't think they should be favored personally.

Shane Mercer [00:08:21]:

Get out of here. Get out of here.

Andrew Pace [00:08:23]:

I love the Lions on a teaser. And that means you should probably run.

GosuThune [00:08:27]:

But sometimes the books hang a bad line. Sometimes you just gotta punish them.

Andrew Pace [00:08:31]:

Bengals minus 6a half for the Browns.

GosuThune [00:08:34]:

I just I don't I just I don't want any I don't wanna watch a Browns game again for the rest of the season.

Andrew Pace [00:08:39]:

Texans plus 2a half at the Packers.

GosuThune [00:08:42]:

That's an interesting one. I don't like CJ Stroud on the road and Texans outdoors, so I kinda like the I like the Packers in that one.

Andrew Pace [00:08:49]:

Seattle plus 3 in Atlanta against the Falcons and Kurko.

GosuThune [00:08:54]:

I think that the Falcons tend to be a little under, respected in my opinion. I I I bet that when it opened it at even money, I think that minus 3 flat. So I I kinda I like that spot for them.

Andrew Pace [00:09:00]:

Eagles favored on the road against the Giants.

GosuThune [00:09:08]:

Yeah. It makes sense. This Giants Daniel Jones is just so bad. I don't I don't I just I don't really like the Eagles. I think it's like a LaGrindy, like, you know, NFC East game. I I like the under in this one.

Andrew Pace [00:09:20]:

Alright. Carolina Panthers plus 7a half at the Commandos.

GosuThune [00:09:25]:

Man, I just I don't think the Commandos are ready to be a 7 point favorite. They're a kinda team that you like to back as a dog because they're feisty. Totally. Totally. I think it's they got numbers bad.

Andrew Pace [00:09:36]:

Raiders plus 7 at the Rams. Rams minus 7. They're 14. What the fuck is that?

GosuThune [00:09:42]:

It's a weird weird weird line. I think Cup's back after the buy, so I think they're getting a lot of guys back, that are healthy. I'm just there's been a lot of rumors about them. The Rams looking to sell players. Like, I heard of, you know, rumors about Stafford being traded potentially and stuff like that.

GosuThune [00:09:58]:

But this Raiders team might they look kind of look like they just quit. Honestly, they were they were just god awful, on Sunday. So

Andrew Pace [00:10:04]:

Anything you like there?

GosuThune [00:10:06]:

If I had to bet, I I would I would probably lay it with the Rams, but I'd actually probably tease them down. I think there's that's a good Okay. That's a good teaser spot. But if if I had to play anything, I would play the Rams side and just assume the Raiders are done.

Andrew Pace [00:10:18]:

Alright. What should be Sunday night football part 2, Chiefs at 40 niners? The fee probably the game everyone's gonna be talking about the most, Super Bowl.

GosuThune [00:10:26]:

This is the the squarest, teaser leg probably in the history of square teaser legs. But, I think you just have to do it. It's like it's just Mahomes and the dog again. I think this is like I think it's just a bad line. I think the book's just they're trying to be a little cute here. I think it's just a bad line. The Chiefs should be favored.

Andrew Pace [00:10:41]:

Okay. Sunday night football, Jets with Davonta Adams against the Steelers.

GosuThune [00:10:48]:

Because I so this is kind of one where I actually like the Jets side to win the game, but I like the Steelers, teased. So So I wanna try to thread a needle here with this one because I think it's just gonna be a nasty game.

Andrew Pace [00:11:04]:

Okay. And I think the

GosuThune [00:11:05]:

Jets are due. The Jets have played a lot of games they should have won. I think they should have won that game last night. So I think it's just

Andrew Pace [00:11:11]:

And they they should have been Denver. They missed a field goal to walk it off.

GosuThune [00:11:15]:

They had some special teams issues, some bizarre penalties, like a lot of weird stuff. Yep.

Andrew Pace [00:11:19]:

The Jets and the Bengals are actually similar in that regard right now. Both of their records could definitely be quite a bit better. Monday night doubleheader again, which is just awesome. Ravens minus 3a half on the road to Tampa Bay.

GosuThune [00:11:31]:

Yeah. Oh, yeah. This is the one I loved when this came out. I think I texted you at, like, 2 in the morning, and I was like, I've I've I've already bet the Bucks. Plus 4 plus 4 and a half. This should be under a field goal to me. Tampa's good. I don't know what it is.

GosuThune [00:11:45]:

And the Ravens, like, I mean, they just they always are inflated. It's just and I don't like Lamar on the road as a big favorite. This is a bad spot for them.

Andrew Pace [00:11:51]:

Alright. And then we got, Jim Harbo. The, Harbos are both playing on Monday night. Chargers minus 2a half at the cardinals.

GosuThune [00:12:00]:

Yeah. I I like teasing the bird the the bird bags up here. I think it's a low total indoor game. I think Murray's gonna they they can put up some points and, yeah, it's it's a good teaser spot for me.

Andrew Pace [00:12:09]:

Right on.

Shane Mercer [00:12:13]:

Alright. Well, there we go. A lot of great actionable insight there. If any of you out there are thinking about acting on some of that, excellent analysis from Gosu, Pinnacle Sportsbook is the place to do it. You will get the very best odds, around. So if you do wanna take a shot on anything pregame, that is absolutely the place to do it. And even if you're betting live and and, you know, you see something that sort of aligns with what John was doing and and, you know, the the lines haven't moved too much, you you know, Pinnacle's still the place to do it. You're gonna get the best odds there.

Shane Mercer [00:12:45]:

So check them out if if you're looking to to take any action on that. Anything else from you, John, before we, move on?

Andrew Pace [00:12:51]:

I just have to say go to pinnacle.com/inplaylive

Shane Mercer [00:12:57]:

There you go. Perfect. Alright, guys. Well, John, great to have you as always. Looking forward to having you back next week to grind out the following NFL and college football slate. But for now, we'll say goodbye to you, and we'll bring in our next guest. Colin Davy, founder and CEO of Bettscope, a mad data scientist and a Jeopardy winner. Welcome to the show, Colin.

Shane Mercer [00:13:23]:

How are you?

Colin Davey [00:13:24]:

What's up, guys? Thanks for having me here.

Shane Mercer [00:13:26]:

Hey. Real really happy to have you. What have you been betting on? Did you clean up this past weekend like the rest of the public?

Colin Davey [00:13:32]:

Sadly, like, I, I was in Europe this past weekend, so, apparently, I missed the one golden window of the year. But, no, as always, it's whatever's in season right now. NFL college, like, anything with the market in front of it and the data feed to aggregate, I am just finding all the nooks and crannies, which is, where I think most of everyone should be spending their time these days, just figuring out how all these systems work, where the inefficiencies are, and how to maximize your ROI with as little brain cells fired as possible, because who wants to do work anymore?

Shane Mercer [00:14:09]:

Ain't that the truth? So are you sort of, you know, digging into the nooks and crannies of of main markets more? Are you more of a props guy? Do you parlay? What what do you like to do? Do you keep it straight?

Colin Davey [00:14:20]:

I don't try to touch the main markets anymore because this is kind of how Bettscope was like, the thesis of why Bettscope was founded. I think there are the main markets are just so picked over by all the big groups out there where if you, the average bettor, think that you know ball and you're gonna wake up Sunday morning and beat the market single handedly, that's like saying I have a hunch on stock, and I'm gonna go out trade Goldman, on the equities desk with being a retail investor. Without getting too much into the retail stock picking thing, generally, I think there there are just so much better opportunities in all these other weird little markets, the alt lines, the props, the like, anything and everything that is just, like, not being picked over that much. Bottom line is if you are not institutional money and you're just the average, like, kind of informed bettor, I think the time and effort is just so much better spent understanding why when and where these inefficiencies in all these little markets, like, propagate, why they're structurally, like, continuous, why they're always gonna be there, and just spend your time there. Because at the end of the day, like, these are the the markets that are the only remaining market inefficiencies. Charitably call it, a retail investor, like, if you're that as as a sports bettor.

Andrew Pace [00:15:39]:

I love how in the grand scheme of everything you just said, you more or less referred to yourself as, like, an average bettor.

Colin Davey [00:15:45]:

Yeah. Like, that's pretty much it. Give and I because I say that having spent time in the originating game. I came up and kinda became a data scientist through trying to crack the market on all of these main markets, whether it's golf or tennis betting or even football or basketball for that matter. You learn the hard way that it's not as easy as it sounds even if you do have a math background, even if you do have an affinity for statistics. Everybody comes into it thinking that they can crack those markets because I'm smarter. I don't know or I think I know something that no one else does, and you find out that it's a lot harder than it is. And so you either give up saying, wow.

Colin Davey [00:16:22]:

This is too hard, or you say, like, what do I need to do to improve my process here? Like, I hold no illusions that I have some sort of great secret model after trying to build years of great secret models that, like, did pretty well in some niche sports. But the problem with originating is you have to know everything about the sport at all times as the sport continually changes. Even if you have a model that works 1 year, it requires upkeep. It requires new data sources. It requires so much maintenance and ongoing thinking that the only reason to do that is if you truly love that part of the game. And I do, and I love it enough that, like, I it's they're better they're they're cheaper ROI avenues or opportunities rather than just, like, trying to basically, like, just be a casual, like, dude at the gym rather than trying to bench press 405 every single time. Like, no. You don't need to be a world class, like, power lifter or weight lifter.

Colin Davey [00:17:18]:

You can just be a jack dude instead, and that's a pretty good life too.

Andrew Pace [00:17:23]:

Cool looks good. Right?

Shane Mercer [00:17:25]:

I like the way you put that there. That that's a really great way to sort of understand it. So is is that who Betscope is is catering towards, the average recreational veteran? What exactly will they find if they go and check out Betscope?

Colin Davey [00:17:36]:

I think Bettscope is more geared towards the intermediate to advanced bettor, where I think you know that it's the basic idea of I know that there are these market inefficiencies and all these weird alt spreads and totals and all these props and all these other markets that you see out there, and maybe I have some directional way that I think the game will go. But excuse me. What Bettscope is more geared towards is letting you access those markets with kinda like a root thesis of opinion. Like, all else being equal, like, let's say that I think the bears were gonna cover us against the Jaguars last weekend. All else being equal, I also like Caleb Williams to hit the over on his passing prop, and I also like Trevor Lawrence to hit the under on his passing prop. Because all these markets are correlated with one another, and not only they're correlated, there are the massively inefficient markets that are correlated with your main market. So what Bettscope is trying to push you to do is instead of just saying, I like the bears. I'm gonna go bet the bears at minus 1 at the first sports book that I see.

Colin Davey [00:18:41]:

Tell me that you like the bears, and I'm gonna come up with 7 other recommended bets for you because in a world in which you're correct and the bears are going to do generally better, let's find the most cost efficient effective ways to get you to ex exposure to that general arc of the game. And it's gonna be in markets that you either don't know exist or it's just too much work for you to have 8 odd screens open and look at 50 derivative markets and constantly being line comparing and line shopping. Let's just simplify this for you where you tell me what you like, and I'll construct the portfolio for you. It's also a way to take the less pressure off of you trying to come up with the most perfect investment thesis, Either grinding out your model to make sure that all the errors are tamped down or I gotta study up on this area a little bit more. No. Just give me a general directional lean. And, you know, if that general directional lean would maybe let you beat the spread market, you know, 50.5 percent of the time, or you're directionally right, but not enough to cover the vig, let's just find you the markets that you actually can beat and turn your general directionally correct thought into an actual positive ROI by attacking the markets that are related to your thesis, but you don't need to be picture perfect or world class sports bettor to, like, make winning bets.

Shane Mercer [00:20:04]:

Yeah. Yeah. It's very interesting. So give me a sense of what I'm gonna see then when I you know, if I were to sign up at Bettscope login. Am am I going to see suggested wagers? Like, you sort of said, you know, if I tell you I like the bears, you know, to cover the spread, you're gonna show me a bunch of other suggested wagers. Are you gonna give me the price? Are you gonna tell me where to bet them? That that kind of stuff?

Colin Davey [00:20:26]:

So we set it up so that it starts off completely agnostic to Okay. What your thesis might be. So what we do is we take all the incoming odds from everywhere else, and we'll convert those into implied distributions and projections. And so when you see something like a Bears Jaguars game, you can take a look and you say this is basically the market projected box score as a whole. And we'll also highlight the markets that might have low hold across 2 or more sportsbooks. Maybe if there's an arbitrage opportunity, we're just gonna highlight all those markets for you. And the reason we put it in projections format is the intermediate to advanced bettor typically has their own numbers for some of these things that they like, whether they're prop projections, whether that's the original spread projections. We want you to change one of those numbers and say, well, the market thinks the number is this.

Colin Davey [00:21:18]:

My number is this. So if you punch in and if you punch in your number and you update all the other numbers, conditional on your number being right, we'll update every other number on the board and run every updated number and every updated distribution against every price at every sportsbook and gives you a recommended list of all the other things that you should be betting that you might have not have been thinking of.

Andrew Pace [00:21:43]:

You know what I love about it? Well, first, we can tell you we're in Europe. Seems you keep referencing the game in Europe from last week.

Andrew Pace [00:21:50]:

But you know what

Colin Davey [00:21:51]:

It's actually because I'm here in Chicago, so it was the only time that I've seen a functional quarterback maybe in my entire lifetime. Oh. So it leaves an impression.

Andrew Pace [00:22:00]:

I was gonna I was gonna say, he's either a huge Bears fan or, you know, he was actually in Europe or both. Yeah. But, yeah, you know what I you know what I love about that model is that a lot of what is offered from, I guess, like, an odds comparison, sort of standpoint in the industry is a lot of information just being shot out to the user. And maybe it is like, oh, there's an arbitrage opportunity in this game, and it pops out. And you're like, oh, sweet. I'll go bet it. By the time you log into your account, it's already gone. Right? It gives the user full autonomy.

Andrew Pace [00:22:30]:

Like, they're making the decision on their read themselves. And we've had a theme on this podcast actually since BetBash, and it was the whole mentality of, like, don't bet this, bet that. And I think your product really falls in suit with that where, you know, if you do have sort of this boring 1 to 2 percentage on, you know, a certain side in a game, there's nothing wrong with that at all. But there might be a way to actually extract a little bit more value and get that ROI up a little bit if if you're consistently getting that edge by by using some of these, I guess, sort of correlated wagers that you're referencing on your site. That's so cool. I think I think it's amazing.

Colin Davey [00:23:07]:

Yeah. And I think that's the like, part of it is an educational piece because by the time you're intermediate enough that you meet you know, you might know that these markets exist or that, oh, there's arbitrage out there, so you know the market is generally inefficient. I think they're like, as more and more people kind of uplevel their betting abilities as they move away from kinda, like, you know, the the basic mistakes that all novice bettors make, they probably do have some directional edge, and sometimes it kinda caps out as it's good enough just not to beat the main markets because that's kind of for the the professional investment class if we're being honest, where, like, again, you, the average bettor, probably are not gonna wake up Sunday and put down, like, 10 Pinnacle will take your bet up to $10,000. Like, they're pretty confident in the number at that point. Now you might you might genuinely know something that they don't. It's just not enough to overcross that, like, you know, the minus 1 10 spread or maybe even the minus the 108 spread. But it doesn't mean that your hunch isn't valuable. It just needs to get deployed in areas that you either don't know are there, or you could do it, but it's just a huge pain in the ass to go have 80 odd screens up there.

Andrew Pace [00:24:20]:

Colin, since you brought up Pinnacle, let's use them as an example, because they're a great sports book. They don't limit their winners. So, obviously, that's a place that a lot of players like us look to knowing that we can actually get get down on a game. Will a site like yours benefit you for wagering at a place like Pinnacle that doesn't necessarily have some of these other markets that we're referencing?

Colin Davey [00:24:46]:

I think Pinnacle actually get I let me not answer your question in another interesting way. Just because I feel like because I brought it up.

Shane Mercer [00:24:55]:

You gotta be straightforward about it.

Andrew Pace [00:24:56]:

You're you're PR guy working overtime today, Collin.

Colin Davey [00:24:59]:

The other reason why I like this is so, like, I I think, like I don't know how much time I give it, but the time honored strategy of basically, middling off of Pinnacle, treating them as a source of your truth or top down betting if you wanna go that way.

Shane Mercer [00:25:12]:

Sure. Sure.

Colin Davey [00:25:13]:

It also has its limitations because in some of the more interesting markets like the alts, Pinnacle's alts don't have full coverage over the full range of spreads because they correctly know that to get alts down, you not only need to know essentially, like, the mean of your distribution or whatever variable is, aka the spread, you need to know the variance and which determines, like, the fair value of all those alts. They only go so far from the main spread for a reason because no one knows how to price any of those alt markets.

Andrew Pace [00:25:47]:

People have tried, People have tried. We've we've very much enjoyed the books that have tried.

Colin Davey [00:25:51]:

Oh, very much so. And in fact, I if I had to guess, I know exactly how they're pricing those. Everybody and their mother has some sort of Monte Carlo simulator because what still works marketing magic is the ability to say, I simulated the game 10,000 times. Well, that must mean that it's 7 decimal point accuracy. Right? Because we simulated it 10000 times. The only reason those simulators, like, have the prominence they do is they're relatively easy to spit out prices for those alt markets. It doesn't mean that they're accurate prices, but the incentives of the operators are not to produce a good number at all times. In fact, many product managers there get evaluated on their day to day job of look at how many markets that we were able to spin up.

Colin Davey [00:26:39]:

It doesn't matter that those markets are essentially loss leaders or arguably we shouldn't even be offering them. They get to brag to their boss that we spun up a bunch of markets. And the thing with simulators in particular and the reason why I love their continued use by all the operators is simulators are always so dependent on the assumptions you feed into them. And if you gave if you just spec'd out, like, if I'm an operator, I need an in house simulator, and you spec'd it out to 10 different engineering or data science firms, you'd get 10 different values for the same price because everybody has a different assumptions. And so that's why I love, like, a tool like Bettscope because it allows you to access that through things like market consensus kinda sharpened up over empirical results. And those are markets that don't have Pinnacle governing, like, those actions in all the other books. So Right. I think that's where it kinda gets really interesting.

Colin Davey [00:27:33]:

So that's my long way of not answering your question, decided that I would answer a question that I would think was more personally interesting. You're welcome.

Andrew Pace [00:27:42]:

I think with all this stuff, it there's there's a bit of a theme here. You're talking about, like, how difficult originating can be and comparing it to, like, say, you know, trying to beat Goldman Sachs with the stock market. And then looking at some of these alternate markets, we did an episode, Shane, way back in the day on on, like, chaotic models.

Shane Mercer [00:28:00]:

Oh, yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:28:01]:

And and at the end of the day, with with all this predictive stuff, you can only predict whether there's value or not. And a lot of people in this industry, and, obviously, we're now really referencing the recreational player, they're actually gonna try to make predictions where they you know, you have the whole lock culture. They can't lose all that kind of stuff. And and, you know, the the bills are not losing tonight, etcetera, etcetera. You you have all that verbiage across the industry. But all of these models will will will fail when it comes to a lot of these alternate type lines, based on what is actually happening now once the game has started, the the chaotic nature of sports. And no matter what you handicap before the game starts, once it's happening, you know, it's all out the window. So, that's where sometimes these alternate lines and things like that from a live betting standpoint can just be crazy lucrative, because sometimes just just the nature of the game and what you're actually seeing that that is pretty much impossible to handicap.

Andrew Pace [00:29:01]:

And, that's why a book like Pinnacle is so bare bones once the game is on, obviously, but still still valuable to have from a live betting standpoint as as a shame you and I know. But, yeah, I think I think what you're doing is super cool. And not being a pregame bettor myself, I can certainly see the the merit in in the the logic behind, you know, what it is that you're doing. So I I think it's awesome.

Shane Mercer [00:29:24]:

Mhmm. Colin, I wanna ask you more about, like, your motivations for for starting this. Like, what's your why behind this behind this company? You know, why did you wanna enter this space and and be another tool out there in a space that is rapidly getting filled up with all sorts of betting tools?

Andrew Pace [00:29:41]:

He just called you a tool.

Colin Davey [00:29:43]:

Not not the first time. Won't be the last. Not worried about it. So so BetScope started because it was the tool that I wanted to use myself that did not exist in the market. A classic be the change you wanna see in the world.

Andrew Pace [00:29:58]:

Every great business. There it is. That's the word.

Colin Davey [00:30:00]:

I, you know, I'd spent some time in the industry before. I was actually at the Action Network as their founding director of data science, like, back when that launched.

Shane Mercer [00:30:10]:

Oh, okay. Well, we missed that in the bio.

Colin Davey [00:30:12]:

Just a little bit. Yeah. It's kind of a distant life. You know, the, the live bet win probability meter that they have in the app when their bets are logged?

Colin Davey [00:30:21]:

You can kinda see the odds of your bet winning as the game goes on? That is my baby. That is one of the many algorithms that I have created, in my time as a data scientist, and it lives on. So, so, yeah, I have spent some time in the industry enough. The the most foundational book I ever read was The Logic of Sports Betting by Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow, which I think that and their sequel interception should be required reading for anybody who's even 5% serious in this, where the thesis of attack correlated markets with weak pricing rather than just firing into full hold like markets on your hunch was the foundational idea for Bettscope. And I saw that no one else was really doing anything that unlocked that type of concept, and I think it hits the sweet spot of providing genuine, provable value to your rec bettors, where it actually will make their win rate go up. And it's a concept that just unlocks completely different user experiences and tools because, like, it's a way to kind of expand your level of thinking, or if I think this and I think that, well, all these things are connected. And so it kind of moves you away from that lock culture that you talk about where lock culture. Like or, like, ultimately and that's what over half of the, like, the the products out there in this industry are, just selling you certainty where there is none.

Colin Davey [00:31:45]:

Yeah. Because sports betting is scary. You wanna be confirmed that you're you're making the right decision. The bottom line is you don't know what's gonna happen, and that's what creates the opportunities to actually, you know, find profitable bets is because no one knows no one knows what's gonna happen. And so I think I also think a lot of people have identity wrapped up in being good sports bettor, either because I watch college football every Saturday and I know ball, and so this is a way for me to make money on my expertise when, like, sorry. You're I it's just because you have a lot of identity wrapped up in it, you think you understand, like, what moves markets and, like, what is predictive. It doesn't necessarily. And I think that leads to a lot of predatory behavior because, like, I'm sure you see it all the time.

Colin Davey [00:32:33]:

People wanna think of themselves as good sports bettors, but don't necessarily want to do all of the throughput to actually make themselves good sports bettors. So it's trying to find that sweet spot of how do you meet people where they are in terms of, like, having opinions, but also steer them towards something that's actually gonna work and not just give them false confidence, essentially.

Andrew Pace [00:32:53]:

You said that so much better than I did, so thank you.

Andrew Pace [00:32:58]:

Colin I actually have a totally random question for you. The the jeopardy thing, obviously, that gets brought like, it's like part of your identity at BetBash. Everyone's like, oh my god. Here's the guy that won jeopardy. Right? And you're like, k, guys. Chill out. More like take a bow. Right? I have seen so many highlights over the years of where sports get brought up on Jeopardy, and it's like, obviously, rest in peace, Alex Trebek.

Andrew Pace [00:33:24]:

Like, they're layups. Right? Like, they're total layups. Did you ever have that as an edge in your experience, with Jeopardy being, like, the only, nerd on the show that knew anything about sports?

Colin Davey [00:33:38]:

I wanted to come up so bad. And in the green room before my episode went on, I was sitting there watching, and I see that one of the categories called the ABCs of golf, and I'd literally done golf analytics for an Action Network predecessor company I was looking for. I'm like, damn it. Why did I couldn't why did I have to call get called then? And so I was shopping at the bit for any kind of sports question because I knew I'm were on the table and then probably didn't get a single sports question in either of my episodes.

Andrew Pace [00:34:09]:

Have you have you seen those highlights?

Colin Davey [00:34:12]:

Oh, the one where no one gets a single football question? I get sent that clip about 5 times a year from both of those people.

Andrew Pace [00:34:18]:

Okay.

Colin Davey [00:34:19]:

So, yes, I am all too familiar.

Shane Mercer [00:34:22]:

Love that. Yeah. You know, those those clips are hilarious because you're sitting there right out for any of us who would probably actually suck at Jeopardy if we went on. It's like the one category we were just clean up, you know, and it's like, yeah. You you just hope and pray that if if you were out there that you would get that. But, you've but you you did win anyway. You didn't have to get any sports questions.

Colin Davey [00:34:41]:

Yes, I did it the hard way. No. With yeah. Without any sports.

Andrew Pace [00:34:45]:

The hard way., The hard way.

Shane Mercer [00:34:45]:

I don't know. I mean, you did it you did it perhaps the hard way, but you found some shortcuts. Like, some really significant shortcuts.

Colin Davey [00:34:53]:

I did. So, like, this is a good segue. So, we should link this or something, but I think if you just Google, like, Colin Daley Jeff Colin Davy Jeopardy, I have an article floating around called how I won Jeopardy with data science. And it basically goes, like, the the approach is so here's an there there's so many little things that people don't know about Jeopardy that I love, like, telling. One of the asides, and I think the secret is slowly getting out on this one, Jeopardy is barely a trivia contest. It's it's far more a reflex contest disguised as trivia contest because Interesting. The the biggest thing that people say you need to train for is buzzer speed and not recall effects. Because how it works when you're on stage is, you know, they read the question.

Colin Davey [00:35:38]:

You are only allowed to buzz in when a little light goes off that you cannot see, like, when you're watching at home. And if you buzz in too early, you're locked out for quarter of a second. And so it's all about optimal timing where your thumb needs to be firing as the last syllable is being uttered. So as soon as the light goes off

Colin Davey [00:35:57]:

You're already halfway to buzzing in. And I trained on this for weeks leading up to the episode, and it was by far the bigger source of edge where, like, you have to be on on reflexes by far. So anyone that goes on the show, go buy this book called Secrets of the Buzzer by Fritz Holzenegger, former 90 Stop. Like, oh, no. It is it was the best investment I ever made, and, like, I and I say this lovingly. This 5 99 ebook is the most autistic thing I have ever read because it has every last detail that you would ever want to know about optimizing your buzzer speed. Literally, anything you're about to ask, it's already in the book. Someone has obsessed over this far more than I thought have thought about anything in my life, and I am forever grateful for it.

Colin Davey [00:36:48]:

So Oh, it's just like a very interesting read. But that that's a tangent.

Andrew Pace [00:36:53]:

Oh my god, That's a great tangent.

Andrew Pace [00:36:58]:

And you know what? Sorry to cut you off, Colin. Separately of how absurd that is, that is such a such an incredible example of where preparation leads to success.

Colin Davey [00:37:11]:

Yes. You you were there like, the the way someone else put it is you're finding the game within the game. What are the objectives? What are my highest leverage areas where I can maximize preparation and improvement? It's not studying the dictionary and downloading all of Wikipedia. It is figuring out what are the high like, what are the maximizing chances success and optimize for that.

Andrew Pace [00:37:33]:

You you know what, though? That also shows, like, when you're watching the show sometimes where someone buzzes in and it wasn't that difficult of a question and they look clueless, And it's because they won the buzzer, but the it happened to be a question that they didn't know.

Colin Davey [00:37:47]:

In general, most contestants up there do know the answer to any given question. The tiebreaker is what's your buzzer reflexes? So, anyway, keeping on the theme of figuring out where the highest avenue ROI is for prep and all that, one of the other things people don't know about the show is that Jeopardy deliberately reuses certain key phrases and keywords for commonly occurring answers. They call them Pavlov clues, and they do this by design because they want repeat viewers of the show to remember some key phrase. And it's like, oh my god. It's always that. A classic

Shane Mercer [00:38:25]:

That's how I sometimes know the answers to stuff I should have no clue about.

Colin Davey [00:38:28]:

Yeah. And I it's because they, like, reuse it. So, like, a classic example, if you is if if you ever hear the phrase Iowa painter, it's always Grant Wood, the guy that did American Gothic. If it's an art category and you hear the phrase Tahitian women, it's always Gauguin. And they do that on purpose because to engage viewers. And so there wasn't really any study guide, and they're kinda you know, there's some Internet forums that kinda give you some, like, Pavlov clues and stuff like that. But my thesis was, if I can just remember for every one of the most common answers, if I can reduce my prep to only having to remember 6 words instead of the entire Wikipedia article, that maximizes the amount of key information that I can retain.

Colin Davey [00:39:13]:

So what I ended up doing was there's a volunteer site that basically has all the questions going back to, you know, the eighties or the nineties. Downloaded the entire site, ran all of the text for the most common answers through some natural language processing algorithms to extract kinda like those key stem words and dump them into flashcards. And so, you know, if the answer is Eisenhower, like, alright. I only have to know these, like, 5 words. And so you basically memorize only those flashcards. And so, like, it is just hyper make doing study or doing prep on hyperefficiency for, like, how much information do I really need to retain for all these common answers? And if I can get it down to just 6 words, I can cram in the most. And it ended up being the margin of victory for those. Like, I basically picked up 3 answers that I wouldn't have otherwise, and that was just enough to get me over the hump.

Andrew Pace [00:40:09]:

You know what's crazy about what you just said is that you don't even know the the the, like, the actual knowledge associated with the question.

Colin Davey [00:40:19]:

This is the dirty secret about if you have a knack for trivia. We all seem so much smarter than we really are. And you're right. I don't know. Like, I did not need to know the whole entirety about everything.

Andrew Pace [00:40:31]:

Which reminds you of, like, cheating on a high school test or something or, like, where you memorize a high school test, and you didn't actually retain any of the knowledge from that course in high school. It's just in one ear out the other. You got your a on the exam and you're out of there.

Colin Davey [00:40:47]:

Yeah. That is actually pretty much what it's like to be on Jeopardy where as soon as I got off, like, 90% of it leaked out from all the cramming that I did before because when am I ever gonna need this again? You know?

Andrew Pace [00:40:59]:

Yeah. And instead, it's just a spectacular story.

Colin Davey [00:41:02]:

Yeah. The other part that I did appreciate being on, and I've heard this from several people, is having a betting and gambling background really does help you in ways that you don't expect. So one of the other strategies that people don't do it or don't employ enough is they don't bet enough when you find a daily double. The math is overwhelming. Like, when you find those, like, you need to be aggressive on those because the best way to guarantee you winning is you have to have a lead going into final jeopardy. Because otherwise, it's just, like, too much craziness and too much variance on the very last question or anything that that anything can happen, and you wanna be in control of your own destiny. So having a lead going into final is paramount, and that means that you have to get really aggressive and bet a lot when you find a daily double. And I knew that math going in.

Colin Davey [00:41:53]:

And when you're under the lights and doing it for real, it is so much more terrifying where you find it and you say, alright. If I have to bet everything and if I don't get this right, my day is done. Right. And yet having just being inundated, having done expected value calculations forever, just knowing the probabilities, it's that's my version of going for it on 4th and 3, where I know this is high risk. I know there's a huge like, bad things can happen if I don't don't get that right. But the mental backstop that it provides where it's like, look. I've literally ran the numbers ahead of time. I know this is the optimal strategy.

Colin Davey [00:42:36]:

It puts a backstop to your mind that is racing a 1000000 miles an hour under the most pressure you've ever felt to just pull yourself together, find some brain cells left find some brain cells left to actually pull the answer from deep where it's in there and execute in the moment. And just having that background just, like, frees up so much that, like, you can actually capitalize on knowing, like, what the right strategy is.

Andrew Pace [00:43:02]:

So, Colin, what you just said is being a a sports bettor and kinda having that analytical mind helping you in that spot. But I think for a lot of our viewers, if you reverse that, it's hugely beneficial. So take that mentality back to your next day of betting. Take that mentality and go, hey. I have the data. I have the analytics. I know I'm making the right decision. And, also, take it outside of betting.

Andrew Pace [00:43:26]:

Like, you're talking about edges in a game that are very much provided by preparation, by study, by factual information. Approach life that way. Right? Like, the the the edges are are ongoing and relentless if you take this this approach. It could be anything from, you know, how you manage your money to, you know, finding your next flight hack or deal to, you know, the list goes on and on. Right? I think it's you're a freaking genius. I think that's obvious. But I love the way that you break it down to make it I I I don't wanna say make it simple because nothing you did was simple, but you make it understandable for idiots like Shane and I.

Shane Mercer [00:44:12]:

Yeah exactly, totally. And, you know, it's just, like, I think, Pace, like, you know what you're getting out there. It just is that's what I'm thinking the whole time. It's like, here's a guy. Yeah. He's got this this data background, the sports betting background, but he's somebody who just sees life in a way where, you know, he recognizes that the edges we need to win at life, regardless of what it is, are all around us all the time. And I think you just gave us a great example of that, which is is so cool.

Colin Davey [00:44:39]:

I mean, one of the advantages of that, it's like the annoying thing about life, it's like, I agree with the message, obviously. If you're listening to this, it's like, great. I'll go apply that strategy in in my life. Life is wonderfully murky and gray, and it's never that black and white when you're trying to take, like, a, you know, a process focused mindset because emotions get in the way. You don't always have the data. The nice thing about a game show like Jeopardy is it's an environment where there is none of that gray area in life. There's a process. There's a right answer.

Colin Davey [00:45:07]:

It's entirely fact based. And the thing that I appreciated about it a couple years removed is I can always anchor myself in that moment where it's like in an environment where there is no gray, this approach worked fine. You carry that over the rest of life. It's all about trying to make it as little gray as possible and kinda anchor yourself being like, nope. It's all there to begin with. It's the process is there. The mindset is there. It's just trying to frame everything that you encountered that's murky and gray and not straightforward in life into that, like, alright.

Colin Davey [00:45:38]:

How do I make it a black and white? How do I jeopardize it, so to speak?

Andrew Pace [00:45:42]:

Yeah. Yeah. So I want I wanna bring up the 4th and 3 analogy. And the reason why is because the majority of our viewers, bet live with us. Right? And we we talked about, okay, we're not we're not pregame bettors, and and the way we wager is is actually you know, the more pregame information we have, oftentimes, we we we'll view it as noise. It it could muddy our opinions of the game prior to the game starting and then carry those opinions, into the game as a result. Now there's all these analytics in football today. Right? Go, don't go, you know, whatever the case pops up on the screen on a 4th down situation.

Andrew Pace [00:46:18]:

This is an uneducated and biased opinion, so I I wanna get your thoughts on it. The 4th down analytics that were being presented don't actually account for the situation. And what I mean by that is, yes, the average yards are this, or, yes, if they get it, that's the probability, or, yes, if they fail, that's the that's the probability that's listed. But too many times, 4th down conversions are being failed because of the intensity of the situation and perhaps the emotion that we have noticed. And a really good example of that is two times this year, Sean McVay has gone for a 4th and goal from the 5 on, like, the opening driver in the Q1. He keeps failing. Josh McDaniel, keeps failing on on fourth down in in these circumstances. So I feel like sometimes with these analytics, like, there's league averages being applied to a situation that maybe isn't accounting for the fact that, okay, this isn't just any other 5 yards anymore.

Andrew Pace [00:47:21]:

This isn't just any other 3 yards anymore. Do you have any opinion on that at all?

Colin Davey [00:47:26]:

I think it's somewhere in between. I think you are right where the percentages are basically a good baseline, and what they're really there to do is to point out instances where the gap between, like, say, point field goal versus go forward, whatever, you know, the win expectancy gap is on the order of something like 8 or 10% or something like that. When it's close, I do think there is avenues for a coach to basically say, like, well, the model's not pricing in x y z, and due to my expertise, I'm feeling that this is like, I will deviate from it a little bit. But historically, I think most people you have to start with the assumption that you are overestimating your own agency in terms of being that tiebreaker. So I think most people take it outside of 4th down or, like, let's say you have a close call or some numbers that gives you, like, decision a, decision b. People do tend to overvalue their own agency in terms of being a tiebreaker because kinda what we were talking about at the beginning. I am the protagonist of reality. Only I can know the sacred truths because you wanna feel like you're that special.

Colin Davey [00:48:41]:

And that's why, like, I think everybody is better off starting from the premise of, no. I'm a huge dumbass, and I ain't gonna like to I look for better structure and guidance versus I know everything and, like, some tools are there to help me, but I'm not really gonna be there. So I think there is some humility there that benefits all situations, and so I am sympathetic to your view on analytics don't price in x y z. But the x factor is like, okay. Well, if in some mysterious world, we could quantify that, how much how much does that move the needle for you? Is it 2%? Is it 20%? And more oftentimes, people's arbitrary numbers, like, just so happen to be, oh, yeah. It moves at this percent because that's the way that shows that I'm actually a genius. So, like, at the end of the day, I still think people do overvalue their own judgment and agency. And you have to have a track record of basically outperforming those, like, essentially, like, model recommendations, And there are some people that do.

Colin Davey [00:49:46]:

Actually, interesting that this is I think this is a good enough tangent actually. Like, I interviewed a couple years ago for an, ESPN analytics job where their own internal sig team or sports and or stats information group, you know, they had their own predictive model where they're gonna try to predict every single game, and they had an open challenge to all the analysts and the honor talent. See if you can beat a robot. And to my point, 99% of people, like, who thought they knew ball could not do it. And there is exactly one savant that just kicked the machine's ass every single time, former Bama quarterback, Greg McElroy. Wow. A name you haven't heard of or thought of in probably forever, but he was just one of those people that is that platonic ideal. Like, I know the model says this, but I know this, and I really do think that this is more important than the model's giving credit for.

Colin Davey [00:50:37]:

He's the only one where they apply it over and over again.

Andrew Pace [00:50:40]:

But did he have a background that supported that, or was it.

Colin Davey [00:50:44]:

yea he was a yeah. He was a bama quarterback.

Andrew Pace [00:50:47]:

No no, Ya I'm sure he played the game. He knows the game, but I'm talking about, like, models and

Colin Davey [00:50:51]:

Not at all.

Andrew Pace [00:50:52]:

Right. So it was it was instinctual. It was his years of experience that that built Yeah.

Colin Davey [00:50:57]:

And he could act he he had, like, he could accurately digest what the model is and is not pricing in Wow. And adjust accordingly.

Andrew Pace [00:51:05]:

That is so cool. You know what's interesting about this whole conversation is do you remember the viral clip, Lamar Jackson's, MVP season? 4th and 2. Harbo pulls off the headset. Hey, Lamar. You wanna go for it? And he goes, hell yeah, coach. Let's go for it. Yeah. So they pick it up, scores the TD on the play.

Andrew Pace [00:51:24]:

It goes viral. Everyone's going nuts about it. I think the next 4th down conversion, the Ravens did it again, and they scored. Yeah. After that, they missed about 3 in a row, and now John Harbaugh kicks on, like, 4th and inches. He like, all the time now. And it's interesting because the result for him, he couldn't stomach when it didn't work. So if it's working, it's like, great.

Andrew Pace [00:51:49]:

Great. Let's keep doing it. It's almost like, you you hit 5 bets in a row. Right? And then you miss the 6, and you're like, I'm not I'm not I'm not betting that bet again. Like, that it's too too risky to to get $0 back. Right? And now he's been super conservative since then. Yes. Of course, there's times where he's gone on 4th down, but he's been a lot more conservative, since then.

Andrew Pace [00:52:08]:

And the flip side to it is, again, those examples I'm gonna give you, like McDaniel or or McVeigh where they just don't seem to ever really get it. And, again, of course, that's a biased opinion of mine to even say that, but that's kind of how it seems. Like, it just does not work, but they keep doing it because they believe the analytics behind, the decision. So, you know, it's it's 2 very different, approaches to to the situation, and we watch it all unfold in real time. And, you know, we have to obviously factor the the coaches into the situations that we're in. Right? Like, Dan Campbell. Right? Like, he's a he's a he's an outlier in in this discussion. And, we just watched I don't know how much you followed Sunday, but we just watched, fat Mike, Mike McCarthy, go for it, like, 4th and 2, 4th and 3, 4th and 4 on his own side of the field and fail every single time in a football game and just watch it turn into an absolute disaster, for his team where I don't know if that was analytics or just pure stubbornness.

Colin Davey [00:53:12]:

Oh, no. That feels like it has tin cup energy. Just like Yeah. Fucking struggle behind this whole.

Andrew Pace [00:53:18]:

Tin cup energy. That's such a good analogy. Yeah. Anyways, I just wanted to get your opinion on that, that, on that topic because, I we we're we're all following that stuff so closely. And and then the the other side of it is with with these analytics and things like that that are happening in the game is you'll watch, like, entire leagues not go for 2 when they're down 14 and they score the 1st touchdown. Whereas the NFL, everyone's doing it now. College, you're like, oh, no. They kicked the PAT.

Andrew Pace [00:53:44]:

Oh, they kicked the PAT. CFL, oh, they kicked the PAT. And it's really weird. It's like, are you guys opposed to analytics? Do you not look at that kind of stuff? You know, are you not understanding the rationale and the percentages behind why they're doing it in the in the best league in the world and you're not carrying it into yours? Like, it's nuts.

Colin Davey [00:54:02]:

Yeah. Like, that's it's everybody operate at the end of the day, everybody operates according to incentives, and incentives don't always, like, perfectly align with what we think the, like, actual job description is. Again, like, that's if what is what is a, a coach's job? Is it to win football games, or is it to keep a coat a job as a coach? Interesting. Those are those are 2 very different job descriptions. What is the job of a sportsbook operator? Is it to provide or what what is your job as a project manager at a sportsbook operator? Is it to make sure that your products make money for the company, or is your job to show how many products you made, because that oppresses the vice president and look at how many things I can build no matter how they turn a profit? Right. Everybody just has different incentives. This is a long way of saying, I'm really excited to see ways that generative AI is just gonna be shoehorned into every single sportsbook offering, not because we actually want it or need it in any of our sportsbook UIs, but it's because every single one of the c suite has decided that we need AI in all our products. So everybody's just gonna be ramming these things in in every single nook and cranny despite the fact that no one asked for it.

Andrew Pace [00:55:15]:

Well, people are terrified of being the next blockbuster, so they feel like they have to.

Shane Mercer [00:55:20]:

Yeah. Right? Gotta keep up.

Colin Davey [00:55:23]:

Yeah. And that creates it. Like, it's it depends on if you think that, like, you're are you facing the threat of Netflix or are you facing the threat of I don't know. Like, I don't even know what the analogy is of a not real Netflix is. But I I'm none of them should be afraid of chat GPT.

Andrew Pace [00:55:41]:

Right. Right. And the the other part of that discussion as well is the user. Right? So the user's using AI. Are they gonna be smarter than us? Right? I I think Do you know do you know what I mean? That is a thought for sure.

Colin Davey [00:55:55]:

Yes. It it is a thought. But, again, like, I think there are plenty of people walking around with these fantasies if I can just ask a robot what are the good bets this week. And the interesting thing about that robot is that robot is gonna be so confident in telling you what the right bets are because they have all been programmed with the most man splaney effect of, like, yeah. I know everything. Oh, that's an easy one to answer. I get the answers right here. And it's like, no.

Colin Davey [00:56:19]:

You're you're not actually coming up with an original thought.

Andrew Pace [00:56:22]:

You know what's crazy too is if you you can ask chat GBT, like, something like this. Like, what were what was the score in each of the quarters in the NBA preseason game tonight? And they'll they'll just pump out this totally wrong answer. And I'm like, where are you getting your data from? That's wrong. And rather than saying, I'm sorry, like, what is the correct answer? They give you another wrong answer. So it's like, oh, it was actually this. And I'm like, if you add up the 4 quarters, it doesn't equal the game score. You've got the right game score. Like, you're smarter than this.

Andrew Pace [00:56:53]:

I know you are. And then I'll I'll be like, would you like me to tell you the scores? And then they go, okay. And they're like, I've I've factored that in. And it's like, oh my god. I've asked some crazy probability questions that we have data on to to some of these, AI services. And let's put it let's put it this way. They're not there yet. They're not there yet.

Andrew Pace [00:57:16]:

There there's a use case for them 100% and and a lot of great ones. But, there's there's definitely some some shortfalls for sure.

Shane Mercer [00:57:24]:

Yep. Yep. Well, Colin, it's been great having you on the show. Really, I feel like I'm walking away from this, having learned a lot, but but feeling maybe perhaps that much dumber coming into it, to be careful. But but I always always benefit from these kinds of conversations in a in a major way and, really, look forward to to chatting with you again at some point in the future. Where can people find you if they wanna hit you up for their their data science questions? How can they reach out to you?

Colin Davey [00:57:54]:

Just shoot me a note. Honest, I'm at I'm on to Twitter still @adjbaseline, and then you can usually find me at Colin at betscope.io.

Shane Mercer [00:58:04]:

Awesome. Alright. Well, Colin, Pace, and everybody tuning in from around the world, all all you sports bettors out there till next week. Keep eating those books.

Shane Mercer [00:58:26]:

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