Episode 84

Andrew Pace [00:00:00]:

Eggs plus 7a half at the Eagles.

GosuThune [00:00:03]:

I think it's, I just want nothing. You know how we feel about both of these coaches, these teams, like, I the others value on that Jags number, but it's just like I mean, I just I just think you're, you kinda have a gambling problem if you're betting significant money on this game, I think.

Shane Mercer [00:00:31]:

Hello, and welcome to another episode of Behind the Lines, a podcast purifying the sports betting industry and powered by Pinnacle. Remember to like, download, subscribe, drop us a comment. We wanna hear from you. Reach out. I'm your host, Shane Mercer. We've got Andrew Pace, the founder of inplayLIVE, a community of like minded sports bettors dedicated to long term success. And on today's show, we'll get to the gridiron grind a little bit later towards the end of the show because right now, joining us is one of the main voices from American Bettors' voices. He's an elder statesman of the gambling industry who's been on all sides of the various businesses from operator to regulator and everything in between.

Shane Mercer [00:01:15]:

Richard Shuetz, welcome to the show. We're so excited to have you. How are you?

Richard Shuetz [00:01:18]:

Thank you very much. I'm I'm I'm doing well, and thank you for having me on Behind the Lines.

Shane Mercer [00:01:24]:

We're we're really jacked to have you here. I know you and Pace met at BetBash earlier this year. That's how he got that awesome shirt that he's wearing. Before we really get into things, though, Richard, I got to ask you, do you bet on sports and what are you betting on these days?

Richard Shuetz [00:01:40]:

Very little.

Shane Mercer [00:01:43]:

I had a feeling

Richard Shuetz [00:01:45]:

During the Super Bowl, my, girlfriend and I took advantage of every bonus in the planet. It that caused me a few I've had a few problems with the sites, something about suspicious betting patterns, and I was convinced that it wasn't really suspicious. I was just better at math than they were. And, so, no, I don't I'm not a bettor.

Shane Mercer [00:02:14]:

Uh-huh. Okay. Alright. But but you did go and harvest some bonuses. I love it.

Richard Shuetz [00:02:19]:

I have 2, 2 partners that make up for my my short probably 2 of the bigger bettors in the world. You know? Spanky and, Billy Walters.

Shane Mercer [00:02:32]:

Just casually throw around names like that. No big deal.

Richard Shuetz [00:02:35]:

Yeah. Well, they're the 3 of us founded the, American Bedders. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:02:41]:

Of course. So you don't need to do much betting. You kinda leave that to them and and sort of represent their voices, so to speak. And the voices of of a lot of us who are sort of on the sharp side of of sports betting.

Richard Shuetz [00:02:52]:

Yeah. And and and and first of all, I've known Billy for over 40 years. I took his action at Stardust, and, and and one of the points that I've made on a number of occasions is that there's three realities about Billy is, 1, we let him bet limit bets at our book. 2, he beat us. 3, he was the most valuable customer we had. You you know, because when you're in the business of managing risk, when you've got maybe the best sharp on the planet giving you insight, you're much in a much better position to manage that risk. So yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:03:29]:

Yeah. So so let's let's talk a little bit about some of the work that you're doing with them at American Bettors Voices. The last time I saw you, Richard, you were participating in

Shane Mercer [00:03:41]:

the Massachusetts Gaming Commission and kind of giving them an earful. This was back in September when they held a public meeting to dive into the practice of limiting sports bettors at the individual level. Give us your take on on how that meeting went, that conversation, and and where you think things are going.

Richard Shuetz [00:03:59]:

I have the greatest amount of respect for the Massachusetts Gaming Commission. And and as an aside, I mean, while I was working on my PhD a 1000000 years ago before your birth, I, I wrote about the Nevada the evolution of the Nevada gaming model because Nevada was the first regulatory model there was. And so I did from 1945 to 66, and I it was a great study. I mean, I had all these wiretaps and all kinds of just a data trove that was unbelievable. So I had an interest in regulation, and and I really monitor agencies carefully. And and I've really been a little bit startled with the rollout of sports betting. And but one agency, I think, that has just really impressed me for a long time now, and I've written on it, is the Massachusetts Gaming Commission. They they are really a competent group that wants to do the right thing.

Richard Shuetz [00:05:01]:

And this has all moved pretty quickly, and and a lot of people don't know what they're doing. And and I don't say that disparaging. It's just the reality of the situation. And I would love it when a politician would come out and say, when are we gonna open? They wouldn't say, well, for the final 4 or, you know, March Madness or the Super Bowl or something like that, start of NFL season. I would like them to say when our regulator's ready, but politicians don't seem to be too willing to do that type of thing.

Andrew Pace [00:05:31]:

So, Richard, I have a question for you. You've been so heavily involved instrumental in a major piece of the regulatory side. What brings you to the player side of the table now given all that experience? And have you released all of those sort of titles and positions as a result of it?

Richard Shuetz [00:05:51]:

I was an operator for a long time, and I had the opportunity during that time to be involved running the casino at the Stardust back in the day when that meant something. The Stardust was the biggest book in the United States. We had 11 pay phones on the outside wall, and they were the 11 highest revenue, generating pay phones in the United States. You know, so much for the wire act working well. But so I've always been involved with betting and and what I and then I got affiliated with Spanky. Spanky called me up and wanted as you had done here, they'd, like, wanted me on a podcast, and and we kinda hit it off. You know? And and we stayed in touch, and then he talked about doing Bet Bash, which was at a bar in Jersey City for about 4 hours, and and now I'm in Central Pennsylvania. So my girlfriend and I drove over to check it out.

Richard Shuetz [00:06:47]:

I met Spanky in person and and whatnot. And then, I've been to every bet bash, and I've and he he put me on this board of, advisors or board of directors for the sports gambling hall of fame. And then I told him, I said, you've got a 2 legged stool here, and you need a 3rd leg, and that's to generate something that represents the bettors because the bettors have no voice whatsoever on what's going on now. The legislators don't ask. There's no voice to speak of. And, and it's bad because there's just and and there's things that I'm suspicious about, and that's why we're trying to help regulatory agencies ask the right questions. You know?

Andrew Pace [00:07:31]:

You brought up, you know, Spanky, obviously, and Billy Walters, and people are like, oh, they're just doing this to get down. Forget about that. That's all bullshit in my eyes. But what what is the benefit to the recreational player? So, obviously, you know, everyone at BetBash, they're either in that, you know, 1%, if you can call it 1% of the winning players. Our listeners are are in that 1% or at least aspiring to be there. Let's say you're not in that 1%. Like, where where does American Bettors voice help the recreational player and be the voice of of what they're looking for? And what are they looking for? I don't even know the answer to that question.

Richard Shuetz [00:08:10]:

Well, one of the things we we when we wanna make sure the system makes sense that that they're they're not being intercepted by algorithms that that are figuring out when they're most vulnerable to to accept a bet and how they respond to propositions and and things of that sort. We wanna make sure the game is square. It's, you know, that it's that it's a fair game. And, I mean, it'd be like sitting down at a blackjack game, and they can pull the aces out. And out of the average player, they may not understand that that's a real disadvantage, you know, and and the sharps will immediately. Most valuable card for a player in the deck, almost regardless of the rules. But, yeah, we just think that they need you know? I mean, if people are getting ripped off in in buying cars. You know? I care about that kind of stuff, and and and we just wanted just to get a square deal.

Richard Shuetz [00:09:04]:

And we want them to get a square deal because, again, it's critically important in my opinion for the sustainability of the industry. Because, 1, if you start busting out a lot of people and you're already beginning to see some data trails that the calls to the problem gambling places are are increasing and stuff like that, that's gonna there's gonna be a backlash to that.

Shane Mercer [00:09:26]:

Where do you see the Sharpe books playing a role in all of this then? Because if you have you know, you're gonna suggest that the soft books are going to be the ones who are are, you know, writing the legislation and they're they're the big lobby and, you know, they're in, in cahoots with the regulators perhaps in some way. I mean, can't the Sharpen books then kinda do the same and maybe sort of play the same game?

Richard Shuetz [00:09:47]:

Well, I think that, and and I don't intend to endorse anybody. I mean, Joe's company, you know, Pride Sports and and Circa, you know, is is Circa's a real book. You know? I mean, they put up big numbers. They put them up early. They don't you know? And, you know, if they take a big bet, they move the number.

Shane Mercer [00:10:11]:

You brought up the Stardust. You know, you brought up Billy Walters. You brought up Billy Walters beating you while you were at the stardust. Do do you ever think about maybe going back to that side of things, like, on the on the operation side of things?

Richard Shuetz [00:10:24]:

To do a sports book right is overwhelming exercise, you know, and and every weekend, you are just buried in that. You know, making sure you're you're if you're an originator and if you're, you know, if you're dealing to sharp play, and it's just overwhelming.

Shane Mercer [00:10:45]:

So then what is next for you, Richard? I mean, I know that you've sort of been there and done that and you kind of done it all. But is it is it just representing Bettors now with American Bettors voice, or do you have anything else in the works?

Richard Shuetz [00:10:57]:

Well, I really like writing. I've I've been doing a lot of writing about the industry, you you know, trying to cause people to understand where it came from and, you know, why regulation's important. You know, I watched the men and women of the Nevada Gaming Control Board build an agency to keep the federal government out of Nevada because the federal government was gonna close it down because there was a bunch of mobsters, basically. And and so they had to build a moat around that industry. They had to protect that industry, and the way they protected it was fairly rigorous regulation. I think that rigorous regulation has gone away. You know? I mean, it's that concerns me. Yeah.

Richard Shuetz [00:11:40]:

I mean, if you look at what happened at the MGM recently, and and and I know I'm I have a little bit more of a Vegas bias than most of the people now because of my roots. But, I mean, they had a situation out of control. They had a general manager of a casino assisting bookies to launder money. I mean, that's pretty amazing, you know, the situation with resorts. You had Wynn in September paid a $130,000,000 forfeiture, based on some really curious money transfers mainly from the Orient, from Asia and countries and stuff like that. And, you know, I think we need to talk about these things. I think we need to talk about how do we improve, terms and conditions. You know? How do we improve the public understanding who's financing the changes that are taking place in the in the industry? I I think that, you know, transparency is an incredible antiseptic, and and and I liked it.

Richard Shuetz [00:12:50]:

You know, I read quite a bit in the United States. I'm a seemingly popular writer and and in a house who have a tendency to be more direct than most because, I mean, in a lot of your gaming journalism now, you have to worry about access, and you don't wanna piss the operators off, and, you you know, you wanna get guys to take your call. I don't give a shit. You know? I mean, you you know, they I don't think you can hurt me. You know?

Richard Shuetz [00:13:24]:

So you know, again, I just wanna build sustainable systems. And, you know, I've seen a lot, and I think those experiences are valuable because it's amazing how the same problems keep creeping up in the industry. And and it and if you're not dealing with people of high character, honesty, and integrity, I think you just have some challenges. It's not gonna end well.

Shane Mercer [00:13:45]:

Richard, I wanna thank you for coming on our show to, scream and yell about those things, and and and sort of be that old man voice here. And I wanna thank you for, the work that you're doing with Bettor's Voice, along with Spanky and Billy Walters, because, you know, like you said, and and I think PACE agrees, you know, that work is is desperately needed in this industry. And so I just wanna applaud you for for taking on that role because someone with your experience has so much to offer, in this space, and to sort of be on that side of things is really valuable for all of us bettors out here.

Richard Shuetz [00:14:20]:

Well, thank you. It's it's been a pleasure to be here. Anytime I can ever be of assistance, I'm at your service.

Shane Mercer [00:14:26]:

Yeah. That is that's a guy we want in our corner place. 100%. 100%. Alright, Richard. Thanks. Thanks again. Really appreciate having you on.

Shane Mercer [00:14:34]:

Okey doke. Alright. Time for our grinding with Gosu segment where we take a look at the gridiron matchups ahead for the week. John, we did it without you last week. We're glad to have you back. But, pace, I think we did alright last week without him. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:14:52]:

I mean, I don't like the whole crystal ball thing, and I think sometimes when you win a bunch of bets, then people will be like, oh, I'm gonna bet it now this week thinking that it just wins. But I think the whole idea with this kind of thing is, like, you know, there's theoretical value, and the fact that it's come through 2 weeks in a row for me on that is just a nice little bankroll boost. And this compared to live is is really you know, it's it's really nothing. But, yeah, I mean, hopefully, some people tailed and and had some fun with it.

Shane Mercer [00:15:18]:

Yeah. No. It was it was fun. Alright. Well, let's get to, the the slate ahead here. What are we looking at, guys?

Andrew Pace [00:15:26]:

So, John, college football, I mean, let's just get a high level, like, rankings and everything. Like, where are you where are you at with what's going on as we head into week 10.

GosuThune [00:15:34]:

Yeah. I mean, I think the last week was pretty chalky across the board. I mean, almost every ranked, favorite one against a non ranked opponent and stuff like that. I think the only, like, upset was BYU is undefeated ranked, and they were a dog at Central Florida, and they they won pretty convincingly yet again. So, they always think it's funny when I look at the rankings and it's teams, you know, like Bandy, for instance, you know, my my alma mater. They were 25th ranked 18 point underdogs to Texas, lost by 3, dropped from the rankings. I don't know if you over perform expectation in a game and you're and you're dropped from the rankings is always, confusing to me. But, you know, that's that's why it's just riders voting and none of that actually matters for for the end of the year.

Andrew Pace [00:16:21]:

Yeah. And sometimes I think from a betting standpoint, you know, for anyone that's looking at a game pregame and you feel like you have to take something because you think there's value, I think BYU kind of filled that sort of public perception of a team last week where you go, they're ranked, their opponent isn't they're undefeated, their opponent has 4 losses. You know, I just have to bet this pregame. I understand that rationale. In my experience with that kind of betting, when I do that, it's just like a guaranteed loss every single time. And the beauty of live betting is is we all identified that game pregame. And then soon as it starts, we're like, if BYU is playing well in this game, we're gonna make some money off this game. And we absolutely crushed that first half because, we were getting value on BYU as an underdog against the team that they were they were outperforming.

Andrew Pace [00:17:10]:

So I guess my message to everyone for something like that is, like, just just watch the game and then see if your theory is coming into fruition, and then you can start betting on it. It doesn't mean that you're gonna win then. It just means that you've gotten a little bit more information. And, you know, in my experience, BYU is gonna come out and just get thumped in that game, and I'm gonna lose money pregame because that's how I used to bet. Yeah. So, John, what are you thinking for this week ahead? Obviously, we got a massive matchup with Ohio State playing Penn State. Ohio State's minus 4 on the road. What do you think?

GosuThune [00:17:45]:

Yeah. I actually think this game should be a little bit closer to a pick. The I think there's a little bit of question mark with Drew Aller, been state quarterback. He came out of the Wisconsin game late and wasn't allowed to go back in. There's, like, a video of him crying, when they tell him he can't go back in the game, or at least getting a little emotional. So, you know, it could have just been, hey. We're playing Ohio State next week. We're up to we're up 2 scores.

GosuThune [00:18:08]:

It's late. Like, what's the point? You know? Like, let's just let's just get get there to next week. But maybe I think people think maybe something happened to him. So just not not a lot of clarity there. I do think that there's from a matchup perspective, Ohio State has some some advantages particularly in their passing game on offense, but they are down 2 starting offensive linemen now both lost for the season 1, this past week, and they got pretty manhandled up front by Nebraska who got manhandled the week before by Indiana. So, just kind of, an interesting an interesting matchup. I don't know that I'll really do too much. I don't like either of these coaches in big games, so I'll probably just kinda watch and enjoy it and and, like you like you always preach, just take advantage of something live there.

Andrew Pace [00:18:49]:

Yeah. Another good example was that Nebraska game. We really took advantage of that one. A lot of fun, obviously, betting betting that game. We did have some Nebraska money line, which didn't come through, but it was a great bet based on the price that we got. Okay. So, I mean, are you gonna wager the Penn State? You match up Well before the game starts?

GosuThune [00:19:07]:

No. You know, I've already it's like a you know, in part of the futures that I gave out to the group before the season started, bet pretty heavily on Penn State to make the playoffs before the season started. And I think we're we're just obviously way ahead in that bet. This is their last, you know, real tough tough game that they have. Obviously, you can lose any game, and they've come close to losing some games that shouldn't have been close. But even if they lost this game, which, you know, that that was baked into the price of that. So, just kind of rooting for Penn State there in in that way and, you know, just take advantage of something alive. I mean, if I had to pick anything, I'd I would like to lean under in this game.

GosuThune [00:19:41]:

Both these coaches are really conservative, in close tight games, just historically. So, so that just makes me think there's just gonna be a lot of running the ball and not wanting to let their quarterbacks make mistakes.

Andrew Pace [00:19:54]:

Right. Okay. So moving on to the next slide. We got Oregon playing Michigan, which I think at the start of this season probably would have been circled as one of the biggest of the season. Forget about Michigan for a second. Let's talk about Oregon because I am the biggest nonbeliever in every team ever unless they're named Georgia. I'm starting to believe. Where are you at? Yeah.

GosuThune [00:20:13]:

I you know, Oregon, they've they've done what they've done last few years. I think tend to really just stomp a lot of inferior opponents. That that game last week, I mean, Illinois, maybe one of the worst, like, I don't know what they were. They 6 and 1 and ranked in the top 20. I just wanted the worst in in recent memory, from, like, a power rating standpoint. Like, I actually made that game, like, minus like, Oregon minus 24 and a half. And I think that was pretty similar to what the line was pregame. But, yeah, I mean, they they definitely been playing really well.

GosuThune [00:20:42]:

I think they got, like, kind of a wake up call against Boise, earlier in the year. They had some issues just kinda figuring some stuff out. Dylan Gabriel looked pretty bad, honestly, to start the year, and he's really rounded out. So, they they definitely look like one of the more complete teams, especially since Texas got got pretty exposed by Georgia.

Andrew Pace [00:20:59]:

Would you lay 15 points on the road in Arbor.

GosuThune [00:21:02]:

Yeah. I would. I just I don't I think Michigan's terrible. I've, like, I I wanted to bet Michigan to miss the playoff for the season, kinda chickened out because I just hate betting against these blue blood programs and what is essentially a beauty pageant, where you're banking on media members and people to not kinda prop them up. That was just a mistake. Like, this team is just not good. So, yeah, I I would lay it with Oregon.

Andrew Pace [00:21:26]:

So here's a really good example of something. B BYU is an underdog this week. We just talked about BYU and how they came out against, UCF. That was another game this past week, Illinois versus Oregon, where the first words out of my mouth when the game start was, I think there could be really good value on Illinois today. And then I think it was within maybe 5 minutes of play where we started laddering Oregon in the first half and and won all of our bets. So just because I had that belief about BYU doesn't mean it's gonna carry over because my first thought with this Michigan game was, wow. There really could be value on Michigan in this game. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:22:03]:

Yeah. Yeah. Maybe there maybe there would be.

Shane Mercer [00:22:06]:

Before you go on, I just gotta jump in here and just say, you know, as a casual, like, I I don't, you know, follow college football the way you guys do. I'm a little more casual with it, but I enjoy watching that Oregon team play. And I'm I'm coming around as just sort of a guy, you know, who, like, enjoys football and, you know, more regularly, I'm I'm like, oh, I wanna watch these ducks, and I actually wanna, bet on them a little bit too, some of the totals and that kind of thing. So I'm I'm I'm riding that that you know, I'm riding ducks maybe to the end here. Quack. Quack.

Andrew Pace [00:22:34]:

Awesome stuff. Okay. And then moving on to the the the evening slate, there's a few games here that would be standouts, you know, especially preseason that we woulda looked at. I don't think we we are gonna talk about all these, but USC is playing Washington on paper before the season started. That would have been a massive game. I think no one gives a fuck about it now. So I think we can pass over that one. And then Pittsburgh's undefeated.

Andrew Pace [00:22:59]:

They're plus 7a half at SMU.

GosuThune [00:23:02]:

Yeah. This is an interesting game where I actually can't get to this number. I I have it basically, like, SMU minus 3a half. I can't get across the 7, but it's I mean, there's it's SMU's taken a lot of money. I think people really don't believe in Pitt, as a team. I think they think they're a little fraudulent like BYU, which I I I would definitely agree with, but I also don't think SMU is really I think they've one of the reasons as, you know, I called a lot of SMU Futures before the season was just because of their schedule. But they're really not, not playing what the the to what the expectation was. So I think, this is kind of just a battle of 2 pretty fraudulent, teams with really good records here.

GosuThune [00:23:42]:

So, I will say there's a lot of trends that I've that I have that favor SME, so I'm kind of torn. So, again, it's probably just another stay away. Though, I do like the over because both of these teams are really good at getting explosive plays and giving up explosive plays, and there is a what we call havoc mismatch in the trench. So a lot of negative plays forced turnovers, favoring the defenses. So I think you could see some short fields, huge plays, just kind of a chaotic game.

Andrew Pace [00:24:10]:

I'm just gonna come out and say it. There could be good value on Pittsburgh Live because that's my gut for every every time I see a line like that. I won't touch a pregame, but there could be value on Pittsburgh Live. But the thing is is, like, 21 of their points this past week were defensive pick sixes, which is insane. Yeah. Like, that's absolutely insane. I don't know when the last time that happened was.

Shane Mercer [00:24:33]:

I think they were early too, didn't they? They were they were fast, weren't they?

GosuThune [00:24:37]:

Yeah. There's they play they play extremely fast. They're like the, they run they run to the line, snap the ball. And SMU plays pretty quick too from depending on what they're doing, how well they're playing on offense. I I will say the pit and BYU are both, like, in the top ten in terms of luck gained or, like, the wins gained from luck or points gained from luck, the true luck metrics, like fumble recoveries, missed field goals, stub muffed punts, things like that, in, like, recent history. So, like, top 10 in, like, the last 20 years when you look at these stats. So, that's why people when you analyze pregame and you try to model this stuff, you just have to dock points for the fact that they've simply won games by margins that they didn't deserve.

Shane Mercer [00:25:18]:

Love that. Points gained by luck.

Andrew Pace [00:25:21]:

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's it's a factor, and we talk about it when we're livestreaming all the time where we go, hey, guys. We have to remember that it's 10 nothing, and both of those scores were scored off of turnovers. It wasn't the offense that drove down the field. Right? And then there's other times where that happens, and then you still don't care like the Detroit Lions this past week. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:25:39]:

They were all kick returns, but it's like, they're still the Lions. Let's see how they look when they get the ball on offense and then kaboom kaboom kaboom. Right? So I I said this last week. I'm gonna say it again. I don't know if I've ever been more excited for an end of a college football season in my entire life. We were sitting here just a few years ago looking at, oh, could they somehow get to the 2 seed to be in the natty? And then that went to, like, 4 teams, and you're just trying to narrow down and just pray that FSU doesn't make it because they've you know they suck, but right? And and now here we are where we're looking at teams where you're going, like, can Pittsburgh get in? Like, is there a path for them to make it work somehow? And then, you know, teams like Bama that should have their season over where you go, you know, it's just not. So I'm super excited. But, John, we're gonna talk about this quite a bit, and I think about a month's time.

Andrew Pace [00:26:32]:

This will be the single most irrelevant bowl season in the history of college football because all the bowl games that, quote, unquote, mattered in the era of 1 playing 2 in the national championship game, they mattered. Once we moved to the 4 team playoff, they stopped mattering as much. Now that we're in the 12 team format, so many games matter where it's life and death, amazing playoff format, everything we could ever ask for in college football. But then the ones outside of that, we are gonna have teams playing where it's their 1st bowl season in however many years. They haven't been in a bowl game. They care about it so much. They're gonna play their heart and souls out in that game versus a team who is just doesn't give 2 shits about that game. And I I think it's gonna be the most irrelevant bowl season of all time.

GosuThune [00:27:23]:

Yeah. I mean, a lot of those games tend to matter less and less for a lot of programs, like you said. And and it only gets worse when you get the, it's like the NIT tournament in college basketball. Right? It's like how many teams declined to go because they thought they were their their season was hinging upon going to the actual tournament, and they they feel like they're too good to go to this other tournament. And, yeah, I mean, that's it's gonna be like that with a lot of bowl games. So there there's just but there's always so much value in finding the teams who actually care and wanna be there, especially when they're matched up against one of those teams. I mean, we made a lot of money. I think I called, like, a full unit, couple maybe maybe 2 units on Missouri pregame, last year against Ohio State because it was that

Andrew Pace [00:28:02]:

And you and you called live units as well. I think you went all was said and done. Yeah. I I think when all was said and done, you had a good, like, 3 or 4 units.

GosuThune [00:28:07]:

That was a good game for me. I will look at that. Sweaty too.

Andrew Pace [00:28:12]:

It was not like some cake walk, but but our, our, our our, predictions, happened to come true for that one. Okay, John. Over the NFL, I'm just gonna run through some teaser things really quickly, and you can you can dispute me on any of them. The rules that we've talked about in the previous weeks for teasers, I actually am am gonna use my heart to to tell you to pass on some of them. So there's 3 games that stand out to me this week. I personally, when I have, like, a big favorite on the road, so the Jets being a really good example from last week, the Ravens being a really good example from last week, I just automatically stay away from those. So if I'm gonna go from 7 down to 1 or 6 down to 0 Yep. On the road, it's just an automatic pass for me in the NFL.

Andrew Pace [00:28:57]:

There's people that are so much better than me at this that might disagree. So the first game that I really like is teasing Houston up to 7. If you could somehow get 7a half on the road to the Jets, that makes me like it that much more. Baltimore is getting way too much credit, and Denver isn't getting any credit. So I thought about teasing Denver up, but then I asked myself, why am I betting against Baltimore? You're never dead with plus 15 and a half, but, again, I'm I'm gonna probably pass on that one. The Bengals suck minus 8. Like, that's nuts to me. So, again, I'm gonna pass, and it really is for me the Bills teasing down to 0.

Andrew Pace [00:29:40]:

I really like that one. The Patriots on paper might be the best teaser opportunity of the year, and I'm gonna pass on it. I'm gonna pass on it because I just can't do it. I just can't do it. John, I'm sure you're gonna you're gonna go there. So for me, the the 3 games that end up standing out for me are gonna be the Texans teased up to 7 on Thursday night football. The Bills teased down to minus a half, against the Dolphins. And there's a few others that I like, and this pains me to say this, but I I think the last one is gonna be the Eagles down to 1a half.

Andrew Pace [00:30:23]:

John, let's do a quick rundown through, the menu Thursday night football Houston plus 1 at the abysmal New York Jets.

GosuThune [00:30:31]:

Yeah. And no surprise. I I think the Texan should be slight favorites here, though. When it's like a one on either side, it just it might as well just be a pick. I think it's just they're not really that worried about, you know, getting middled or anything. It's just an opportunity to juice some people on a money line. So I do like the Texans here. I I don't like Stroud.

GosuThune [00:30:48]:

Stroud's just not the same on the road. I know I say it every week. He's just not. But I do think that, like, teasing that side, I think, is is a pretty good bet. I think that totals, like, in the low forties. So I I actually back you on that one. I I I like that quite a bit.

Andrew Pace [00:31:02]:

Denver plus 9a half. They're 5 and 3. The public are starting to get hyped on them. I think this is a product of the sportsbooks getting smoked by favorites winning in the previous 2 weeks, not this past week. Baltimore minus 9a half at home. What do you think?

GosuThune [00:31:17]:

Yeah. So I can't get there on the number from a modeling perspective, but I just let let me let me give you a rundown here. So Denver has 5 wins. Here's their opponent's records. 4 and 4, 2 and 6, 2 and 6, 2 and 6, and 1 and 7. So they have beaten 5 teams by with a combined record of 11 and 29. Now the 3 games they lost, they haven't lost by more than a touchdown, but I think the best team out of any of those they played was or one was the Steelers. The Steelers aren't exactly in a high powered offense capable of covering multiple touchdown spreads.

GosuThune [00:31:49]:

So, I I'd I think this is a good spot to buy on the Ravens here, against it and just sell this Denver team. I I really just don't think they're very good at all.

Andrew Pace [00:32:00]:

Wow, 9 and a half to me is still just crazy. Yeah. Great perspective. And, again, that's I think my gut is telling me don't tease to 15 and a half in that game. I don't think anything would surprise me, including Denver winning that game. But Yep. Okay. Raiders plus 8 at Cincinnati.

Andrew Pace [00:32:13]:

If Cincinnati doesn't win this game, I mean, I don't know what to say.

GosuThune [00:32:16]:

Yeah. Yeah. I have this at 7. I think there's a little bit of early money on the Raiders kinda bringing that number down. I I do think it is a good time to tease the Bengals. I I just don't know that this Raiders team this is, to me, a good spot to put the Bengals in a teaser and then also take, like, the plus 8 with the Raiders and and try to hit that middle there because I think we've seen it. We saw it this past week. The Raiders recovering for all but 2 minutes of that game against the Chiefs, right, and then they end still ended up covering at the end with the backdoor.

GosuThune [00:32:42]:

So, I I think that's what I'll do there.

Andrew Pace [00:32:45]:

Patriots plus 3 with a total of 37a half playing the titans. Yeah.

GosuThune [00:32:49]:

I do. I mean, you said it's probably one of the best teaser spots of the year. I I think the only thing with this game is that we don't know who's playing quarterback for either team because May got concussed in that game. And then it's you know, you've got Will Levis. Like, think about the the circle of quarterbacks in this game. It's Drake, May, Jacoby Brissett, Mason Rudolph, Will Levis. I mean, this is like a bad preseason second half, you know, is what this is. And then

Shane Mercer [00:33:13]:

ugly.

Andrew Pace [00:33:14]:

To ask your you have to ask yourself the question of, does it matter who plays a quarterback as well? Yeah. You know what I mean? When it comes to that discussion.

GosuThune [00:33:22]:

Yeah. I really don't think it does. I mean, I'd I'd be more comfortable with the teaser of Rudolph played and not Levis because I think Levis has the potential to score a lot if he's on, but he also has a potential to score for the other team as well. But there's a little more variance with him, so I would just rather it Rudolph.

Andrew Pace [00:33:38]:

Right. So what's on paper? Something really exciting. It turns out to be the old Walter White run. Saints minus 7 at the Panthers.

GosuThune [00:33:47]:

I this I can't this number is hilarious. I don't is Derek Carr playing this week? Like, I don't I don't I guess I just don't understand how they can be favored by a touchdown. I think it's still Rattler or Haynor. I know Rattler got benched, but I I'm just gonna take the panthers.

Andrew Pace [00:34:01]:

The the state the state you just said it in the last game. The state of the quarterbacks in the NFL right now, it's like we're watching preseason football with some of these games. Like, the Saints running through these guys is it is bad. Yeah. If this team was 2 and o, it is a fucking bad product that New Orleans Saints are putting out right now. And then on the other side of the ball, like, is Bryce Young gonna start again?

GosuThune [00:34:24]:

Yeah. No. Wait. I don't think anybody knows. So I but I just I don't know that I care. I just why why are the states why is Spencer Rattler laying a touchdown on the road to anybody?

Andrew Pace [00:34:37]:

Alright. Cowboys, 34 cowboys plus 3 in, Atlanta.

GosuThune [00:34:43]:

Yeah. So I I make this about Falcons minus 2. I don't really have much of a read on this game. I just it says, you know, I think I should take the Cowboys. Falcons just won a big a big divisional game. Cowboys lost a game that they probably should've lost anyway. Seems to me like a spot to take them with the especially with that number, but I just I just can't trust the Cowboys. I mean, I think they have all the talent in the world.

GosuThune [00:35:05]:

They just seem that they can't put it together in a game.

Andrew Pace [00:35:08]:

Chargers minus 2 of the Browns.

GosuThune [00:35:11]:

I don't understand this line either. There's I think the Browns are still being priced like Deshaun Watson's a quarterback. Actually, I love this for a teaser spot. Like, this is but to this total this total is, like, strangely high to me too for a chargers game. I know it's Winston, but, I mean, plus 8a half, here, you can get at some places on a teaser leg, so I just love that. I'll bet the Browns straight up too.

Andrew Pace [00:35:33]:

Wow. Okay. Commandos, minus 3a half at the Giants.

GosuThune [00:35:38]:

Yeah. This is, this is such an interesting game. This game reminds me it's not as big of a spread, but it reminds me of the Browns game from this past week where it's the a team that's leading the or, like, in the in the division, like, they're doing so well, and they're playing a divisional opponent who's just awful struggling, and it's just a spot to lay an egg after, like, a roller coaster of a win with that Hail Mary, in that game. So I hate the Giants, but and and they are on a short week because they're playing on Monday night, but, I think you just have to take that plus 3a half that's out there right now.

Andrew Pace [00:36:09]:

Also a really good reminder, I believe this matchup was, 21/19 the last time they played, and all of the 21 points from the commandos were field goals. Yeah. Seven field goals. Wow. Yeah. And the the giants lost their kicker, and they would have won this game, in my opinion, if they had their kicker because, of all the spots that turned into turnovers on downs, and they missed every 2 point conversion. So that that game, it's actually the 2nd game this year where the underdog has won because the favorite lost the kicker. The other one being the niners against the cardinals.

Andrew Pace [00:36:43]:

So I think the Giants played a great game against the Commandos. I also think the Commandos have improved since then, where Jaden Daniels, like, he hadn't thrown a touchdown yet. I think it was week 2, and he hadn't even thrown a touchdown yet. Like, he looked good, but he couldn't finish the drives. I think he's a a a little bit more competent now. But, again, we saw this past week with the the hail Mary. He essentially got beaten that game, and they were unable to to finish in the red zone throughout the entire game. Jags plus 7a half at the Eagles.

GosuThune [00:37:10]:

I think it's, I just want nothing. You know how we feel about both of these coaches, these teams. Like, I the others value on that Jags number, but it's just, like, I mean, I just I just think you're you kinda have a gambling problem if you're betting significantly.

Shane Mercer [00:37:25]:

What's the total in that one?

Andrew Pace [00:37:27]:

45a half, and it's, the old Doug Peterson revenge game.

Shane Mercer [00:37:31]:

Okay.

GosuThune [00:37:32]:

Yeah. I mean, I'll probably put a small bet on the Jags just because I bet I do bet what my model says a little small every week unless I have some competing force going against it, but this is not gonna be a a real bet at all for me.

Andrew Pace [00:37:44]:

And, I've also teased the Eagles down earlier in this segment. So, maybe guys just erase that from your memory. It hurt to say when I said it, but I I still stand by it. Bears plus 1 at the Cardinals.

GosuThune [00:37:56]:

Yeah. I I think this is another game where I I have I have a Bears minus 1. I think that, actually, I think the Bears are good. I think, like, they should have won that game against the Commanders. Like, I think they play a lot of teams, like, close and well. Like, they should've lost to the Titans week 1, but they've gotten a lot better since then. So I do like the bears, but I also think the cardinals are good. So it's just it's so that's just gonna be an interesting game to me.

GosuThune [00:38:18]:

I think you can kinda find value in both teams' lives. If, like, if you're if you're the kind of person who likes to try to get one team plus 7a half and the other team plus 7a half, I think that could be a a game for you. So Right.

Shane Mercer [00:38:32]:

Crazy to think that the Cardinals probably top of that division. That's nuts. I would never predict that.

Andrew Pace [00:38:37]:

That division's wide open, and the cardinals have played 2 really good football games in a

Andrew Pace [00:38:43]:

row after playing a couple of really bad ones. And let's not forget, they had the ball in week 1 driving to beat the bills in an absolute shootout. And I think that some of the more high profile games where we've had our eyes on them a little bit more, they've looked so bad that people think they're worse than they are. But, again, like you said, John, the Bears aren't that bad, and they have a good like, a really good defense. Rams plus 1 at the Seahawks.

GosuThune [00:39:09]:

Yeah. Another yet another game. I have the other team favored by 1 instead. So, a couple of things to say about this. I think this is a really good teaser spot for the Rams in a division game even though it's on the road. I think this is a a a good spot. Seattle's offense just hasn't really been that good. The they tend to put up some yards, but they've just really struggled to actually capitalize and score, in the last month or so.

GosuThune [00:39:30]:

So, I I it is the Rams outdoors. I like the under a lot in this game, just because it's Seattle crowd's loud. Their offense hasn't been that great, and it's, you know, the the an indoor team going outdoors. But one thing I will say about this game is and I said this like, well, I wasn't on the podcast last week, but I know he talked to you about this taking the Rams to make the playoffs before that game last week. Plus 590. You can still get plus 400 at some books. If they win this game, they have Miami and then New England after that. So they could very easily be 64, and then all of a sudden they're, like, minus 300 to make the playoffs.

GosuThune [00:40:04]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:40:04]:

I thought some of the craziest trade discussions were the they're still at the top of the list. So they're talking about biggest moves heading into free agency, and Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford are at the top of the list. And I'm looking at it going, they're playing good football. They've got their team back. This is more or less the team that won the Super Bowl, like, to an extent. I know Aaron Donald and some other key pieces are no longer there, but, man, Lions minus 3a half in Green Bay.

GosuThune [00:40:32]:

Yeah. So this is another one. We don't know who the quarterback's gonna be, I think, for the Packers. So this line makes sense where it is for me right now. If this is Jordan Love, I think this game should be closer to a pick. If it's Willis, I think it'll end up being around, like, 4a half, 5a half. I don't think they're gonna give people the 6, but it's, I really like the Packers. I'm gonna bet the Packers no matter what.

GosuThune [00:40:53]:

So I took a little bit of the 3 and the 3a half, and I'm just gonna add depending on whatever the situation is, hoping I can get that better number if it's Willis, because this is the Lions' first game outdoors this season. They have not been outside once yet, which is why we made that bet on the Lions to be the last undefeated team, which unfortunately, you know, would wouldn't be winning anyway because Kansas City is so undefeated. But, I really like the packers in this spot no matter who the quarterback is just both from a numbers perspective and that spot. And just like the Rams, I think this is a really good opportunity to take a future bet with that side if you like it. So you can get the packers to win this division, at plus 380 right now on a book. And if they win this game, they will be in 1st place in the division. So a wild number there if you if you like that side and you're primed for the upset like I am.

Andrew Pace [00:41:42]:

Okay. So I bit my tongue when you talked about betting Texas against Georgia. I'm not gonna bite my tongue today. You could not pay me to bet on the packers pregame in this one. So you're, John, you're probably right. Or my own. I'm looking at this lions minus 3a half going, holy fuck. Here comes another blowout, and the Packers are gonna get absolutely, sat sat down in this one.

Andrew Pace [00:42:09]:

And this is the beauty. One of us will be right. Okay. Colts plus 6 against the Vikings.

GosuThune [00:42:15]:

Yeah. I don't I don't I don't really don't agree with this number. I'd I've just I've never caught up to the Vikings, from a handicapping standpoint. So I, you know, I barely make it, like, Vikings under a field goal here. So I'd and I think there there's early a lot of early money coming out on the Colts, so I think it's the right side. The Vikings to me, I I think I've mentioned this a couple of times when we've been on streams talking about some of these teams, but these teams are really over perform once they hit that first loss, that first disappointment. I think sometimes some reality and some, like, you know, thinking back to the expectations of before kinda sets in. So I really expect sometimes for these teams to just fall off a lot based on with the train that they were riding.

GosuThune [00:42:58]:

So I just I'd I'd have to see them kind of recover from a loss, win a couple more games in a row again before I just upgrade them into my modeling again. So I I like the Colts in this side.

Andrew Pace [00:43:07]:

In our in our first segment, they've gone 12 since you said you bet a little bit on them to miss the playoffs.

GosuThune [00:43:13]:

I still like them to miss the playoffs. They're currently, that's plus, you can get plus 240. And I think it should be, like, plus 135, 140, right now. Right now, I have them as a 7 seed. I think you can need 10 wins, to make the playoffs in the NFC this year. I think it's really tight in the NFC.

Andrew Pace [00:43:31]:

Shane, are are you curling up in your coffin over there?

Shane Mercer [00:43:32]:

I'm just I'm just staying quiet over here. I don't I don't wanna hear any of this. But I but on on like, I think John's on to something, though. After that first loss, I wasn't surprised to see us go on the road and lose to the Rams, and, you know, it's such a tough division. The NFC North is the best division in the league right now. Yeah. Yeah. You're right.

Andrew Pace [00:43:51]:

There's I don't think there's even a debate there. Bucks plus 8 and a half Monday night football, against the Chiefs.

GosuThune [00:43:57]:

You know, we know what we're doing here, don't we? It's our guy.

GosuThune [00:44:01]:

It's our baker. Baker's our guy.

Andrew Pace [00:44:04]:

I looked at this, and I thought, jeez. The Chiefs are finally getting a lot of credit. I don't know.

GosuThune [00:44:10]:

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No. I I I think anything I actually I mean, I still make it Chiefs minus 8, but they they tend to just not again, like I say it all the time, they tend to not cover these big spreads. I think they covered 1 earlier this year. I can't remember who they played.

GosuThune [00:44:22]:

But then they just got backdoor. Like, they weren't only covering for 2 minutes against the Raiders in that game, and still gave up the backdoor there. Like, with Baker in that offense, you know, they lost Godwin, but I think they're just still primed to be able to get in that backdoor. So I I really like the that plus 8 NAV. I think it might still I think it might go up. This might be a game where, you know, closer to kick, the public might be chasing a little bit, really hammering the Chiefs. They're gonna have the Chiefs in every teaser, imaginable this week. So I think that number might might still get up close to 10, so I'm gonna wait a little bit.

Andrew Pace [00:44:54]:

Awesome stuff. Well, I mean, it's been a crazy football season, both college, and NFL, and I know we've had a lot of fun betting on all this stuff. A good reminder, guys, we bet live at inplayLIVE. It's just fun to run through the board. It gets us mentally prepared for the games. Gives you a little bit of a a primer from the standpoint of, hey. You know, this is what the line is pregame, and these are some things that we might be looking for.

Andrew Pace [00:45:16]:

But when these games go wrong, we abandon them quickly where they're either games we don't bet on at all or we're we're going the other way. So it's good stuff.

Shane Mercer [00:45:24]:

Great reminder there. And another reminder for everybody out there, if you do wanna act on any of this, excellent knowledge that was shared by John and Pace here, in college or the NFL, Pinnacle Sportsbook is the place to do it. You'll get the very best odds over there. And if you haven't signed up, you can go sign up at pinnacle.com/inplaylive. That's where you wanna go, click that link, sign up there if you're not signed up already. And, yeah, Pinnacle, the place to bet all things pregame in my opinion, especially if you're getting any kind of closing line value or anything like that. That's the place to do it. A 100%.

Shane Mercer [00:45:57]:

So head on over there and and check that out. Alright, guys. Anything else from the gridiron? Is that it? That's all. That's all she wrote for the week. Alright. Well, pace, John, sports bettors from around the world till next week. Keep beating those books. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines.

Shane Mercer [00:46:13]:

Remember to like, download, and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below. And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code BEHINDTHELINES.