Episode 86

Welcome [00:00:00]:

You're listening to Behind the Lines, a podcast presented by inplayLIVE and powered by Pinnacle, the number one sports book where winners play and never get limited. Go to pinnacle.comforward/inplaylive to sign up and get in the game.

Shane Mercer [00:00:28]:

Welcome in behind the lines powered by Pinnacle, purifying the sports betting industry. I'm your host, Shane Mercer, as always joined by Andrew Pace, founder and CEO of Infay. I have a community of like minded sports bettors dedicated to long term success. And on today's show, betting the American election, Jake Paul, Mike Tyson, plus Pace gets ripped off. Alright. Pace, you wanna start there? What what happened?

Andrew Pace [00:01:47]:

Oh, man. So I think a lot of people at inplayLIVE know that I use a lot of different sportsbooks and and dance with the devil and, you know, play with some some gray market or some people call it black market sportsbooks. The thing is is in Vancouver, like, we're not a regulated province. Right? So if you're outside of Ontario in Canada, even Bet 365 would be considered black market market or gray market. But there's obviously gonna be more reputable books. Like, you know, if if you are in Canada, outside of Ontario, you know, you're gonna see, like, BetVictor, Sports Interaction, Bet 365, Betway, you know, 888 sport, like, sites that have been around for a very, very long time, that we have access to here. But separately of that, we have access to, yeah, a lot of crypto sportsbooks. And a lot of them, when you sign up, if you're from Canada, it says Ontario is not allowed.

Andrew Pace [00:02:28]:

And there's, like, a class act we talked about this potential class action lawsuit that could be happening against them. But the the layout and how they look, is gonna be similar on a lot of major pretty popular crypto sportsbooks that have kind of challenged stake. Like, stake sort of been the the real sort of leader in that space and kind of taken over the and and because of their success, all these other ones have have come along. So you have, like, Wall Street Memes Casino. They're getting pretty big. Lucky Block, TG Casino, which is a Telegram crypto book, bc.game. You know, there there's there's a big list of them. And like I said, I've used and been paid, by all these sites.

Andrew Pace [00:03:09]:

So it was on this it was a new site popped up on on a list with all those names, and had a review written about it by someone that had also reviewed these other sites. So I I sort of trusted this person. I was like, okay. I'm gonna dive in here. Typically, what I'll do is I'll go around to a couple different, review sites, like Trustpilot being a good example. And, if people have been scammed out of money, usually, I'll just stay away. So I have a pretty good radar for this kind of stuff, and I've actually had a really good run of not being like, I I don't wanna say it hasn't been hard to get paid on some sites, but I've had a really good run of actually ending up getting my money, because of being burned in the past. And, yeah, with this particular site, it's funny because if you if you you rewind and you trust your gut, I had this really bad feeling.

Andrew Pace [00:04:00]:

So the site is, was called cryptodashgames.i0. And I'll just caveat, whatever you guys do, do not play at this at this site. So I deposited small, knowing that there wasn't a lot of reviews online, and very quickly, realized that they were mirroring Bet 365, which for a sports bettor in my shoes, Shane, as you know, here. We love that. Your chops.

Shane Mercer [00:04:25]:

Yeah. We love it.

Andrew Pace [00:04:27]:

I realized I actually had played on a platform similar to this, but, their limits were oftentimes really, really small and not worth not worth playing. Whereas I had to, $350 or less. Okay. For a spin. And if you spun once, you were done for the game.

Shane Mercer [00:04:45]:

Oh, okay.

Shane Mercer [00:04:45]:

You're gonna do multiple spins. Alright. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:04:48]:

Yeah. So this was 2,000 US, spin up to 5,000 US per game. So I was just really excited about it. But I again, I deposit I think I deposited, like, $1,000, and I think I ran it up to, like, 1800. And I'm like, I am going to withdraw my funds to make sure that I do in fact get them. Went to withdraw. I never heard from them. You go to their live chat, and they always say, hello, dear customer.

Andrew Pace [00:05:11]:

That's their thing there.

Andrew Pace [00:05:13]:

They're like, hello, dear customer.

Shane Mercer [00:05:14]:

I love some of those live chats the way they, you know, they pretend to be nice. You know? They they greet you very nicely and or, you know, with those terms. But yeah. Blah.

Andrew Pace [00:05:23]:

Yeah. And and often like, sometimes it's a weird situation because you actually don't know if the person on the chat is playing dumb, is the only person that works there, or is actually a genuinely nice person that doesn't know what's going on at their sportsbook and is is actually shocked at what they're now seeing is going on with their customers. I think it's, the former in in in most of those cases. But, anyways, yeah. Hello, dear customer. Oh, in order for your withdraw, you need to contact our finance department. They send you the email for the finance department. You email them, they don't get back to you.

Andrew Pace [00:05:58]:

You email them, they don't get back to you. You email them, they don't get back to you. Finally, they get back to me and they say, you've been playing on games that are low risk. You need to, play on games that are higher risk, and you need to do with, wager your deposit amount 3 times over. So I got back to them and I said, where in your terms and conditions does it say that you need to wager 3 times over? And then I screen grabbed their terms and conditions and said it very specifically says one time over. Like, you need to wager your balance one time over. They responded, dear customer, all of our players know that it's 3 times in order to to play on our site. So I've done this before, and it's a lazy move.

Andrew Pace [00:06:43]:

But I go over to mines in the casino, and I'll select the biggest board of mines possible. And I'll put my whole balance on a mine, and there might be 80 mines there. And if it blows up, I lose my money. And if it doesn't blow up, which is like you have, like, a 99% chance or 98% chance that it doesn't. And and I'm referencing balances that are not significant. If it doesn't blow up, I've rolled my money over. So I go over to the mines. I click on the mine.

Andrew Pace [00:07:13]:

It doesn't blow up. I'm like, okay. Process my cash out again. Sorry. I did it twice. So I've I've wagered my balance 2 more times because I'd already wagered my balance once. I wagered my balance twice. I maybe made 7¢ more by not trying to click on a mine, which, by the way, if I ever well, that could be a fun thing to do on the podcast.

Andrew Pace [00:07:31]:

Like, Pace needs to roll some money over, and he's gonna click on some minds on our podcast today. We're all gonna hope he doesn't blow up. Right? So, I, yeah, I I I I've now 3 x, and I'm like, is it 3 x to my bankroll? And I've done it the 2 x in the casino. So I'm thinking, like, you know, I've I've done my part. Right? I'd at this point, I'm thinking, like, okay. I'm gonna play by your rules. I'm not gonna go regulator complaints or anything like that even though you're very clearly asking of your customers something that is outside of their terms and conditions. So process my withdraw again, and they come back and they say it needs to be 3 x in the sports book.

Andrew Pace [00:08:12]:

And I I'm like, where did you guys say that? Right? And they're like, also the games you played in the casino were low risk. They went back to that again.

Shane Mercer [00:08:19]:

Oh, right. It wasn't high risk enought, ok.

Andrew Pace [00:08:20]:

So I'm like, what the what the fuck? So I'm like, okay. I'm gonna I'm gonna let this rip. I'm just gonna bet on here on an NFL Sunday, see how we do kinda thing, and, and and see where where we go. Got my balance up to about 7 or $8,000, and then it fell back to about $25100. Definitely had 3 x to my my my my initial deposit.

Andrew Pace [00:08:47]:

Yeah. So I go to process my withdraw. Finance department contacts me. They're we're so happy, sir, that you have played, the requirements, and they paid me out the money. And I was like, sweet. And this is oh, by the way, up to now, this really isn't a big deal. So I'm thinking now you're no.

Shane Mercer [00:09:07]:

You're you're going, okay. They paid me. Check. Book good to go. I'm gonna play here.

Andrew Pace [00:09:12]:

Yeah. So I, yeah, I don't wanna say good to go. I'd say I know what I'm dealing with. They've made that clear. They are shady as hell. I wouldn't recommend anyone playing here, but they've paid me. I've got this review from from this other site, and and let's rock and roll here. So I think I threw $4,000 in there and, just absolutely crushed them.

Andrew Pace [00:09:36]:

Ran it up to, a a third of a Bitcoin, just under a third of a Bitcoin. So, you know, over 25,000 US, and, they limited me. So I'm like, okay. You know, this was fun. Process process my withdraw. About 2 weeks went by, and I'm like, okay. They haven't heard from them. Nothing.

Andrew Pace [00:09:56]:

Go to the chat. Tell me to go to the finance department, all that kind of stuff. Finance department isn't responding now. Like, just straight up. Like, weeks are going by. They're not responding. I'm like, okay. I need to I need to turn to somewhere that can help me.

Andrew Pace [00:10:10]:

So I know members of our community have had help with a service called Ask Gamblers. And Ask Gamblers is a service that reviews casinos. Gamblers are allowed to review casinos. There's a whole list of sites that you can use on AskGamblers that they recommend, and they claim to have basically gotten people paid on a whole series of different sites, for, like, 1,000,000 of dollars combined. Right? So I'm like, okay. I'm I'm gonna submit a complaint here on AskGamblers. So I just basically told the story over text that that, you just told me. So sure enough, right after I created a complaint and then they they contact the casino then.

Shane Mercer [00:10:47]:

Right.

Andrew Pace [00:10:47]:

So they contact the casino, say a complaint has been submitted, you know, on our on our site. Here's the complaint, and they have a certain amount of time to respond. And meanwhile, once I see this now underway, I'm thinking, okay, they've gotten involved. I've I've seen the process. I've started the process. I've heard of members in our group get paid because of a complaint through AskGamblers. I'm thinking, jeez. We we wanna get these guys on the podcast.

Shane Mercer [00:11:11]:

I'm just gonna say, these guys sound great. We we gotta talk to them. Alright. But go on. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:11:15]:

Yeah. So I'm, you know, I'm thinking, yeah, we gotta get these guys on the podcast. Like, they'd they'd be great people to speak to, talk about the work they're doing in the industry, all that kind of stuff. So I submit my complaint, and then they sort of have a generic response, to them basically saying, hey. You you guys need to respond to this so that we can get the evidence and information to, you know, make a decision. So crypto games and this is public, by the way. Like, you can go look this up. So cryptodashgames.io responds to the ask gamblers complaint saying, I will check and get back to you.

Andrew Pace [00:11:54]:

That morning, right after, they finally responded to my emails. And they said, dear customer, we regret to inform you that your recent bets are considered very low risk. And by the way, what we do at inplayLIVE is not low risk.

Shane Mercer [00:12:09]:

This is not like, we're not talking about, like, 1.2 or or minus, you know, 2,000 wagers here. Right? PACE, these are all normal Jukes wagers. So we're talking 1.8 minus 120, minus 125 at at, you know, perhaps the lowest risk. Right? Kinda kinda wagers.

Andrew Pace [00:12:29]:

Or higher. Right? A lot of plus money bets.

Shane Mercer [00:12:31]:

A lot of plus money bets. Absolutely. Yeah. That too. Of course. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:12:34]:

So your recent bets are considered very low low risk, which prevents us from processing your request. However, we can offer you a solution. Please place 3 wagers of the declined amount. So we're talking about $30,000 US, 3 wagers of the declined amount. Please note that single bets in sports will not count towards this requirement. Once you complete these steps, we will be able to confirm your withdraw. Thank you for being so understanding. So they just asked me to wager 90 $1,000 US in parlays.

Andrew Pace [00:13:22]:

That's what they just asked me to do. Now it's worth noting it's worth noting that I have been limited at this stage. My largest ability to bet there is about $20. Okay? So I I I cannot wager $90,000 in parlays.

Shane Mercer [00:13:37]:

Even if you even if you wanted to do it, it would be, like, near impossible to to do it.

Andrew Pace [00:13:43]:

Now at this stage, I have my account, and I have this requirement that's been given to me. So you get to continue your complaint thread on AskGamblers. So there is a screenshot of this email sent to me from them and me, my version of that happening added to the complaint. So at this stage, AskGamblers gets involved, and they actually say to them, we need you to respond to this. You're not complying, and it's longer winded than that. They respond and say, we need more time to review this. Okay? I say, how much time do you need? Blah blah blah blah blah. Ask Gamblers then gets involved and says, we need you to respond again.

Andrew Pace [00:14:25]:

And they said, we have a final request to extend the time needed to resolve this. It's taking us longer than anticipated. So, November 8, 3 days ago from when this was recorded. We would like to inform you of our position regarding the case in question. After a thorough review, we have found that the matter intersects with the use of a second account. This has been corroborated through IP matching and device matching, which are in violation of our casino rules and terms and condition conditions. As a result, the winnings in question have been forfeited due to the violation mentioned above. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Andrew Pace [00:15:03]:

So when that was written, my account was shut down. I can't I can't access it. And the complaint on ask gamblers was shut down. Oh. They closed down, the whole forum. And if you go to this complaint at the very top, it says crypto.gamesio weeks to payment status resolved with a big smiley face. The second they posted this, the issue was considered resolved. They contacted me and wrote me an email saying they've sided with the sportsbook.

Andrew Pace [00:15:40]:

Now the claim that they just made, you guys might be watching this, be like, oh, Paste did this or that or whatever. It's my only account there. I've only logged into it on the device I'm on right now, on this one computer. I've never even logged into it from any other device. I don't multi account on sites, and I certainly don't do it in a situation where you're in a in in maybe a a gray or black market site that, you know, it could be a problem.

Shane Mercer [00:16:07]:

Okay. Let's just put that even that that whole question to the side. You didn't do it in this case. Even if you were going to do it, you are a sophisticated enough sports wager to know that you're gonna do it on a different device, you're gonna do it on a different IP address. You're not going to, expose yourself to that potential even if you were to, but in this case, you clearly didn't. So, you know, the yeah. Go go on. I just know that that claim is totally baseless either way.

Andrew Pace [00:16:38]:

Well, it's completely fabricated. And the thing is is because of this response, Ask Gamblers immediately closed the account and sided with the provider. And I actually thought about it. Like, what's the sports bettor supposed to do here? If a sports book accuses you of multi accounting, but you know in your heart of hearts or whatever the case that you didn't, how is a sports bettor ever to prove that someone else's account that they don't know that aren't correlated within any capacity is not their account? There's no way for us to be able to prove it, and yet that is the claim on their end that's sided with. So so it's interesting. In the time my complaint was opened, I noticed about 3 or 4 other complaints get opened against them. So had I have been 3 or 4 weeks or a couple of months further down the road discovering the site, I wouldn't have played with them because now reviews are popping up about them. So, yeah, shame on me for for diving in early.

Andrew Pace [00:17:39]:

But, again, I trusted this initial, review that that I looked at. So when I made my complaint with AskGamblers, I had a balance that I had access to. I had an account that I had access to. I had been given after in the middle of the process, a ridiculous set of terms to be able to roll my money over. But at the same time, I would have started clicking $25 at a time on every menu and trying to get as much of that $25,000 rolled over on their terms if that was my worst sort of case outcome. So after going through the process, not only did I get stripped of the ability to do that Mhmm. They took my account away, sided with the provider when the provider's fabricating information, are known as a source to help players in these spots. And they validated the casino saying that they have resolved it and sided with them and agreed with them when it's completely and totally false, leaving the next player subject to going through what I went through based on their validation.

Andrew Pace [00:18:51]:

So they completely are giving the keys to that casino and potentially other casinos to be able to continue to scam the next player, which is insane. So after this happened, I was like, okay. Let's look at some of the sites on there. And I start scrolling, and I'm like, oh, my stake scammed a bunch of inplayLIVE members. Evobet scammed me, stole my money. And I start going through it, and they're promoting sites that have notably and openly scammed people in our group. So I'm left speechless here. So next thing I do, I'm like, okay.

Andrew Pace [00:19:34]:

I'm gonna go to this company that reviewed them, and I need to let them know what they did to me. Provide the evidence so that they can take down their reviews. So I went to about 3 or 4 different sites that are currently have a have a review out there and just said, hey, guys. This is what's happened to me. I want you to know that you're promoting this site. It looks like more claims similar to this are popping up. I I strongly, you know, suggest that you take this review down because it's promoting a casino that is stealing from from their customers. I also think it's important to note.

Andrew Pace [00:20:06]:

They took my initial deposit. They took my $2,000 that I deposited into the site. They didn't even give that back to me.

Andrew Pace [00:20:16]:

Before where they are like, here's your initial deposit back. Like EvoBet, I just mentioned, they sent my initial deposit back to me, but they took the winings.

Shane Mercer [00:20:22]:

They took the winnings.

Andrew Pace [00:20:23]:

Yeah. And they also claimed the multi accounting when it was my only account. Right? So crazy sequence of events here. Buyer beware. This is what you do when you enter into this gray market, but this ask gamblers. They're there to, in theory, help players. And my god, I hope they see this. I really do.

Shane Mercer [00:20:42]:

Yeah, and, again, we we gotta bring them on the show. I I mean, it sounds like they're trying to do some good work, but maybe, aren't able to, fulfill their mandate to to the extent that they'd like to, or or maybe you know? Well, anyway, we I I don't wanna put words in their mouths or anything like that, but I'd love to have them on the show to have a conversation with them because it sounds like they're trying to do something good, but maybe it's not going as planned. The accusation of multi accounting is really concerning because it sounds like a lot of sports, which and this isn't the first time I'm hearing about the allegation of multi accounting being used to, not pay someone their winnings. And as a sports veteran, when you are accused of multi accounting, you don't get provided any evidence. Right? Like, in your case, they didn't they didn't tell you, hey. Here's your IP address and here's the device, you know, to go to go with it, and we, you know, had a login from, you know, this device and this IP address on a separate account, and this is the account name. And, you know, they don't give you any of those details, right, to to be able to say, hey.

Shane Mercer [00:21:52]:

Look. We caught you, and here's the evidence. They just say, hey. We caught you. Yeah. Hate, and that's it. Yeah. And this and you have no way of defending yourself.

Andrew Pace [00:22:02]:

Yeah. And in in this case, they said a second account. Like, they essentially making it look like we know about this specific second account, which, of course, does not exist.

Shane Mercer [00:22:12]:

Which doesn't exist at all. And there's no way that you can prove to them it doesn't exist or, in this case, prove to ask gamblers that it doesn't exist. It's just that they make a claim, and that's, you know, that that's the god's truth, you know, kind of thing. And it's like, well, no. It's not. But yet you as the as the bettor have no way of proving it other than saying, well, no. It's not true.

Andrew Pace [00:22:36]:

Yeah. And especially, like, IP matching. Well, there's no IP that could match. It's not possible. Like, it's not possible. Yeah. Only IP that it could match with is the account the one account that Im using.

Shane Mercer [00:22:46]:

That's the one account.

Andrew Pace [00:22:47]:

That's the only IP it could it's not possible. Right?

Shane Mercer [00:22:50]:

Yeah. It's

Andrew Pace [00:22:51]:

wild wild wild wild stuff.

Shane Mercer [00:22:52]:

Yeah. It it's starting to sound like that particular, allegation is becoming a loophole for sportsbooks to not pay up. And and, you know, when it when it come you know, when push comes to shove, that's the default now. That, oh, we'll just accuse them of multi accounting. We'll say that we have the evidence, and we won't provide it. And, you know, they're they have no recourse, and that's that.

Andrew Pace [00:23:13]:

Yeah. So and, again, just to to that that that same point, DraftKings, I mean, we talk about the regulated sportsbooks and some of the things that they do. DraftKings is a reputable fucking sportsbook. DraftKings posted saying, I don't know if it was it was Thursday night football. So they posted on Friday or Thursday night. 20,000 people hit the same game parlay on Thursday night football, and it was a bunch of touchdown scores, different touchdown scores that people went and selected. So you've got a sports book that is promoting that 20,000 people just won this bet that all took it, and then you've got another sportsbook where those 20 same 20,000 people, it could be used against them for having that same bet.

Shane Mercer [00:23:57]:

Right. Having the same bet. It may be accused of multi accounting or, you know, working as part of some kind of, you know, nefarious group or something like that. They come up with all sorts of stuff. Wow. Well well, that sucks that that that that happened pace, but, at least it's a a lesson, for your for all of our audience members out there and and, you know, at least, we know to avoid it. So what is that? Can can you name it one more time just so we know not to play there?

Andrew Pace [00:24:21]:

Yeah. And they're on a lot. This is the thing is I I I they're on a lot. Like, I'm sure other people are doing what I'm doing. They're on a lot of lists. Like, they're on a lot of lists alongside those reputable reputable gray or black market books that I just mentioned. It's cryptodashgames.i0. Stay the hell away from them.

Andrew Pace [00:24:37]:

And, shame on AskGamblers. By the way, one last thing. AskGamblers saw that they asked me to parlay my balance of $30,000 three times. They saw that and sided with them. As soon as you see someone doing something like that, the first thing you would say as a reputable third party that's mitigating the situation is you cannot ask this of a player. It is completely outside of your terms and conditions and outside of your the licensing that's allowed. Now they're licensed apparently, they're licensed out of Costa Rica. If anyone knows anyone that can help me, with a a lawyer there or someone, please please reach out.

Shane Mercer [00:25:20]:

Yeah. That third party house gambler's gonna still look at them and say, well, that's absolutely fucking ridiculous. You know, that that a sports book would ask somebody to do that. Yep. Yeah. Unreal. Alright. Well, let's move move move.

Shane Mercer [00:25:34]:

Moving on now, to to, a topic perhaps, more controversial. I don't know. It all depends on how you look at it, but, we are coming off a very big week in the United States. We saw Donald Trump elected back into the presidency, and we talked a little bit about betting on the election, ahead of the election. And now I wanna bring up, something that's kind of being marked when it comes to, what what sort of took place, during the election and and how it sort of played out on the sports book. So, an article, out of The Economist screen share of it in in just a moment here because we got a great graphic I want to share, but the article essentially saying that what betting markets got wrong about Trump's victory and basically saying, well, they might have just been lucky or biased or books. And and I think that there's there's some some sort of, you know, some interesting elements in this, that that we could apply to what we do on a regular basis when it comes to hearing pundits out there on sports broadcast and actual sports betting. But let me just get into some of the the details of sort of what we saw unfold in the in the presidential election here.

Shane Mercer [00:26:47]:

So, more than $400,000,000 was wagered on at least one betting site that specifically, caters, to politics. But the sum that globally on other prediction sites, reportedly topped several $1,000,000,000. So betting on the election was big, big money, the this past election. People were right into it. And, you know, many people in our audience were probably watching the betting markets very closely on this one. And so they probably know that Trump was the clear betting favorite at least in in in all of the prediction markets. He was like a minus 150 favorite, or or, you know, in the area of of 1.6 to 1.7, always sort of moving in that space. And that's despite sort of the pre election, coverage up there on all news sources sort of suggesting that it was a coin flip.

Shane Mercer [00:27:40]:

That, you know, this was as much a coin flip as it could be 5050 either way. A lot of the polls even at one point had had momentum for Harris, and so it was kind of interesting, that it turned out that the betting market was so much more accurate than the pollsters. And I thought that that was really kind of, fascinating. Let me just, share my screen here for a moment. So for everybody out there who's, just, listening in, you might wanna just go check out check out the YouTube, or you can go check out The Economist article if you want here. US presidential election 2024, Donald Trump's chance of winning percentage. And you can sort of see the date line over here. So, you know, August all the way through to Election Day in November, and you can see, like, what The Economist was forecasting.

Shane Mercer [00:28:32]:

Right? And so this red line here, you know, had, you know, Trump all the way down sort of in the 45% range here, maybe between August September, beginning of September, end of August. You know, taking a you know, going up a little bit then really dropping all the way down close to 40%, you know, timber. And then and then rising by, you know, end of October early November here, sort of just getting above 50%, you know, and and then sort of really kind of falling right as we got to the election, almost back down to that sort of 42 to 45% kind of kind of area, but what we saw from the prediction market, and this is the poly market, bookmaker, I guess, if we could call it that, I suppose, and you can see here that the implied odds on on Trump winning were always significantly, higher than what was being forecasted by the economists, and you can see it got all the way up here into the sort of 65% range before taking a little bit of a dip, but was always a clear favorite in 55 to 57%. So I say I thought that that was really kind of, interesting to sort of see that that's how it played out. And I think the other element of it here is that, you know, is that we get very similar noise in the sports betting world all the time where we will be watching, you know, I'll just throw one out there like countdown NFL countdown on the Sunday, you know, before the game start at 1 o'clock. Right? And you get all of these panels of experts all weighing in and they're all making their picks at different points and they're all giving, you know, reasons for why they think something and they're often just, you know, really sort of pumping up the favorites and I just thought we you know had me thinking that maybe you know oftentimes your greater source of truth is the actual market itself, not necessarily the area where people are talking about the market where they're giving their opinions or you know they're coming at it from a biased perspective, but rather the location where people are letting their money do the talking, so to speak, right? As they're letting their money tell the story of what they think will happen as opposed to polls and pundits and all that kind of thing. I I thought that was really sort of fascinating to see it play out when it comes to politics and and betting on politics. So I also wanna point something else out here, Casey, and I think you'll like this.

Shane Mercer [00:31:10]:

At no point did the betting markets suggest Trump would win the popular vote. So poly market gave that a 27% chance. So this this article essentially says, well, hey. Since since they got that side of it wrong, the betting markets got that side of it wrong and Trump actually did win the popular vote that, oh, maybe all these bettors were just lucky or and, PACE, we talked about this before that maybe the people who are placing wagers in this space, you know, sports bettors, a lot of, our crypto heads, so to speak, are all also tend to be right leaning and perhaps, you know, they were influencing the market based on their bias. At least that's what the The Economist article sort of concludes, Is that either they got just got lucky by picking Trump and having us the favorite the whole time or they were, you know, that that line was influenced by the bias that exists among the people who use, this market. So I thought that that was interesting. But, Pase, I think that you actually did place a live election wager, and I think it was on the popular vote for Trump to win the popular vote. Am I right?

Andrew Pace [00:32:17]:

It was well, I mean, define live. I did it on the morning of the election. I don't think yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:32:24]:

I'd call that live, people were voting. Right? People were at the polls at that point?

Andrew Pace [00:32:27]:

Yeah. Yeah. It's interest it's actually a really interesting thing that you brought up there. So I've had I've had a lot of discussions, like, amidst friends or families about, I guess, the prediction, and we had a lot of these leading up to the election and on election day and then after. And you know what's funny about anything like this is whether it's Sunday night football or or the election, the whole I told you so or, you know, whatever is if the result was validated the the the thought process prior. Right? Like, resulting. Right? But, yeah, from from, like, a predictive market standpoint with Polymarket, I think they need to do a better job of, accuracy and predictions. So if if a certain percentage, is on a certain side, when what what the accuracy is of that actually then being correct.

Andrew Pace [00:33:21]:

So you just brought up a really good example because I don't care about them being right. I think that matters. But I wanna know when they're wrong in order for me to be able to look to that in the future. So you just brought up when they were wrong. They were wrong about the popular vote. Okay? Why why were they wrong about the popular vote? So one of the biggest arguments leading into the election is the one you just alluded to. Whether it's crypto heads or sports bettors or whatever the case may be. The them being right leaning in this election and that potentially skewing some of the odds so that you could put yourself in a position where you could say it actually is a coin flip because of the fact that this has been swung a little bit too far to the right from the actual demographic of who has swung that side.

Andrew Pace [00:34:10]:

Right? Well, they were wrong on that too because everyone leaned right for this for this thing, which is why, you know, he he won the popular vote. So I'll actually tell you why I placed that bet. I was heading into the election. You know, I'm from Canada. I'm not an expert. I don't see what's going on in the streets in the United States or anything like that. I'm only subject to what is presented to me. So that could be the mainstream media.

Andrew Pace [00:34:40]:

That could be my own research. That could be me reading an article in The Economist, like the one that you brought up. That could be going to Twitter or other social platforms. And it was social platforms that ultimately caused me to make that wager. I even called Kenny, who people know is a a huge Trump supporter, and he told me not to place the bet. He said I won't win. And he's a huge, huge Trump supporter. So the reason why I placed the bet was because some people had done some polls on Twitter.

Andrew Pace [00:35:08]:

Elon Musk is the the most obvious one of who you're gonna vote for. And when I clicked on that, I think it was, like, 72% of people said that they were voting for Trump. Now he was a Trump support he is a Trump supporter. So so if I'm gonna click on that and make that my source of of information, you're gonna go back to this argument again of it being right leaning and and right bias. So I was like, I need to find someone doing this on on the left side. So I went and found as many polls as I possibly could on Twitter of people posting who people were voting for, and the lowest I found was 65% for Trump. The lowest.

Shane Mercer [00:35:48]:

I wonder if that's because it's on Twitter where, you know, it's a space that has been farther, like, over time. Right?

Andrew Pace [00:35:55]:

So so I went to Instagram. I started going down to all the posts that were left wing posts, and I went through the comments. I couldn't believe what I was seeing. I could not believe what I was seeing.

Shane Mercer [00:36:07]:

What what was going on there?

Andrew Pace [00:36:09]:

It didn't matter how left the person was. The comments that got the most likes and support underneath the post, it was either completely left the whole way, like, left in in its entirety, the whole way, which meant that the comments were deleted. Because when you can't find one that supports both sides

Shane Mercer [00:36:30]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:36:30]:

You know there's a bias there. So if you go low we're in Canada. So if you go look at one of Pierre Poliv's I don't know how to pronounce his name, Shane. You probably do. Yeah. Pierre Poilievre..

Shane Mercer [00:36:42]:

Yeah. Pierre Poilievre.

Andrew Pace [00:36:43]:

Okay. You go look at one of his posts, there's gonna be someone hating on him in there. And that's a good indicator that posts that comments haven't been deleted.

Shane Mercer [00:36:51]:

Right. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:36:52]:

That's right. Someone hating on there. Most of the people that follow him are going to be his supporters. Not always. Right? So it was either completely all left or where it comments hadn't been deleted. I couldn't even believe what I was seeing. You have a left swinging, you know, celebrity or whatever it is, and the most likes underneath the comments were something that was in support of the right. So that's why I left x and went over there, and I'm like, this is just I've seen enough.

Andrew Pace [00:37:20]:

Like, I don't know if I'm right or not, but I'm gonna I'm gonna put a couple $1,000 on on Trump to win the popular vote at 4.3. And it hasn't hasn't paid out yet.

Shane Mercer [00:37:34]:

I'll probably take a look at it. Right? They're still counting. I was like like it's subclasses.

Andrew Pace [00:37:38]:

Yeah. I was I was like, I've seen enough. Like, this looks like it's gonna be a red wave, like, we've never seen before. And and there's a lot of people that were saying, well, no matter what, like, the right will lose because they'll rig the election. And and you know what's crazy is since he's been elected, I saw a clip, and it was Tucker Carlson interviewing Elon Musk about whether the moon landing was real or not. And he genuinely asks him and pauses, and he's saying, you're saying it did happen. And then Elon talks about the technology of the rockets and how everything essentially checks out and that they absolutely did, go to the moon. The comments are unbelievable below this post.

Andrew Pace [00:38:22]:

It is person after person saying, did you see that Elon Musk looked down when he answered that? He has to answer this way because, because he's funded by, the the people that are are covering up that they didn't go to the moon. The list goes on and on and on. So whatever you believe, this is my point here. Whatever you believe, you have the very person that just went in the trenches with you to essentially win the election, in my that's my opinion. Like, the Elon Musk was a a major part of Trump winning this election

Shane Mercer [00:38:53]:

Sure sure

Andrew Pace [00:38:55]:

A major part of it.

Shane Mercer [00:38:55]:

Big big part.

Andrew Pace [00:38:56]:

Right? You have that person that's like your your your knight in shining armor. Right? That you are now everyone supporting him that's on the right. They love him. Right? Say that the moon landing was real and they don't trust him.

Shane Mercer [00:39:09]:

They don't trust him.

Andrew Pace [00:39:11]:

And I said to my brother yesterday, this is the state of the world that we were in now. Whatever news we are given, we don't believe it because the mainstream media has fucked us up so much that we don't have the ability to go, this is the person that can validate it. And people need to understand this. If 911 was an inside job, that doesn't mean the moon landing is fake. If the moon landing was faked, that doesn't mean 911 was and inside job.

Andrew Pace [00:39:35]:

The dots don't need to all connect.

Andrew Pace [00:39:37]:

And that's the thing. People think that one conspiracy equals the next one. And there are some that have question marks or some validity, and there's a lot you know? And I feel like this election was a real point of emphasis that almost validated a lot of people's opinions that think that the right right wingers the further you go right, the more conspiracies you tend to have. Right? So they're all they're feeling so validated now that if Elon says we landed on the moon, they disagree with it. But, anyways, yes. The predictive market's very, very cool. I wanna I wanna know more about when they're wrong.

Andrew Pace [00:40:14]:

That's what I wanna know more about. And I think that then once that data is out there, we can start to have more accuracy because like you alluded to, Shane, they were wrong about the popular vote. Why were they wrong about the popular vote? Was it strictly based on people's perception or was it actually based on what they were willing to put their money on and they viewed that as riskier? So then they didn't put their money on it.

Shane Mercer [00:40:36]:

Yeah. Maybe maybe that's what it is, is that they viewed it as riskier and they didn't put their money on it or they felt like, yeah, you know, there there was a lot of stats out there to suggest that that he wouldn't win the popular vote, so maybe they just felt like that's where they they would put their money on the other side and have him win the presidency. But, yeah, not exactly sure what happened there, but, I wanna move along to another, big sort of cultural moment, if you will, that's about to take place. I I think a lot of people are talking about this whether, you're a boxing fan or not, but that is Mike Tyson, Jake Paul facing off in the ring for a boxing match. And, there's a lot of people out there, who are, you know, think maybe, you know, Tyson shouldn't be doing this. He's 58 years old. He's going up against 27 year old Jake Paul. The bout is sanctioned by the state of Texas and the regulator there.

Shane Mercer [00:41:30]:

So, you know, it's got the full go ahead. It's happening on Friday this week. So, you know, this episode comes out on Wednesday. It'll happen in, you know, 2 days from from then. And there's a whole bunch of sportsbooks that are saying, not not gonna happen in this state, or I should say state regulators that are saying, not gonna happen in this state. So Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, have all said you're not gonna be able to bet on this fight, at least not here in our state. The reason being is that they're calling it an exhibition. They're saying it's not a professional bout.

Shane Mercer [00:42:08]:

They cite the rule of, 2 minute rounds instead of 3 minute rounds, 14 ounce gloves instead of 10 ounce gloves. All of that making it for sort of an unconventional, boxing match, and and they're not gonna allow it, in their state. Now I just wanna mention though that for people outside of the United States or people who have access to a Pinnacle sportsbook account, They can bet on this site if they're interested in it. Tyson is coming in at a very as a very heavy underdog with odds of, 3.5 or plus 2.50, and so that makes Jake Paul a big favorite in this. But as you can imagine, the actual, sportsbooks in the United States, so, you know, your your your fan kings and and MGMs and all the rest of it, they're expressing some disappointment. They're not happy with these with these state regulators. It's like, hey. You know, what gives here? Why why can't they bet on this? You know, we want off for it.

Andrew Pace [00:43:05]:

So I I'm just trying to think. Like, I'm just trying to picture a betting menu. How does collegiate sports differ from that rationale? The not professional.

Shane Mercer [00:43:15]:

Right? Professional, I guess. I I don't know. I suppose it's it's, I I don't know how what the what the difference would be there. That's a good point. Like, it's an amateur competition. Right?

Andrew Pace [00:43:26]:

Yeah. And can you bet on an amateur golfer in the masters?

Shane Mercer [00:43:30]:

Yeah. I mean, I I'm I'm I'm sure you can.

Andrew Pace [00:43:34]:

Right. So, like, what's the differentiation there and and separately of collegiate sports? Because that's like a major example. What other sports are on there that wouldn't be considered professional?

Andrew Pace [00:43:43]:

I think you could bet on the CFL. Oh, no. nevermind.

Andrew Pace [00:43:47]:

What other sports can you bet on?

Shane Mercer [00:43:49]:

I mean, we all we've all gone through the venue and seen a whole lot of crap in there that, you know, might not quite qualify as a professional sports, so to speak. Right? Like, you know, do I wanna bet on on Korean ping pong? I mean, I'm you know, I'm sure there's a book out there offering it. I don't know if it's if it's at the professional level or not. You know, oh, there's there's oh, hey. So here's a great example. There's the the emarkets. Right? Like, you can bet on people playing video games. I mean, who's professional about that?

Andrew Pace [00:44:16]:

I don't know. I don't know. I don't I am actually like, what's the what's the genuine difference? And the other the other thing I'm I'm thinking is this is the very reason sports betting was legalized.

Shane Mercer [00:44:26]:

Right.

Andrew Pace [00:44:27]:

Like, the rationale to not bet on this is the very reason it was legalized. So what's everyone gonna do that are in those states?

Shane Mercer [00:44:33]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:44:33]:

They're gonna go to their nearest offshore sports book, their bookie, or call a friend in another state to place the wagers for them. Do they not? Like, this is the very reason sports betting was legalized that they're doing this. And this is a big deal. This fight is a big deal. A lot of people want to bet on this fight, and a lot of people are gonna watch this fight. I mean Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:44:53]:

It's on Netflix. I mean, that's a big, you know, big thing all all in and of itself that Netflix is the one to put this thing on.

Andrew Pace [00:45:00]:

Yeah. Yeah. For sure. That's wild. I'd we we've talked about rigging sports a little bit on this podcast. I think that there is a little bit more opportunity in some of these Paul fights from the past. My personal opinion is that Mike Tyson isn't getting in a ring without the desire to destroy or kill someone. I don't think he's in this to to throw a fight personally.

Andrew Pace [00:45:25]:

I don't think he's capable of it.

Shane Mercer [00:45:27]:

Yeah. I I don't think he's I don't I don't that never once crossed my mind that he would be the kind of person to get in the fight and take a fall Yeah. You know, for for a paycheck. I I don't see that happening. I mean, the guy is 58 years old, and he's up against the 27 year old. I mean, that's a 30 year age gap there. You know, that doesn't look good for him. I'm a bit concerned for his for his welfare.

Shane Mercer [00:45:50]:

But, you know, he's a he's a professional fighter, and he's he's a he's a real killer. I mean, we saw that in in his day. You know, you brought up something interesting there, though, in the tying it back to our previous conversation and how many people thought the election would be rigged. Right? And I'm just thinking about these state regulators in these in these states I just laid out, you know, Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, maybe not as much, but certainly, like, you know, those those red states or traditional red states. I wonder how many people that work for the regulator thought the election would be rigged, and yet they still allowed people to bet on the election there. You know, it's like, but now you won't let them bet on this. It's it's kinda like, what gives? Or how do you make that, you know, how do you make those decisions? I don't know.

Andrew Pace [00:46:39]:

Yeah. I just I I I'll just I'll I'll just keep falling back to this being the very reason that they regulated sports in the first for sports betting in the first place. So, you know, picking and choosing in this spot just strange to me because people are I don't think there's a single person that is gonna go to bet on this fight that doesn't see the markets, that doesn't go figure out how to get money in. So it's a huge opportunity for the, offshore books to capitalize here. Because let's say it's you know you know how people's brains work? They're very in the now. Right? It might be 30 minutes before the fight tips or bell. How do you say tips is basketball? What do you say for a fight.

Shane Mercer [00:47:17]:

Yeah. Before the opening bell.

Andrew Pace [00:47:20]:

Okay. Before the bell rings. Right? And they might not even know it's on, but someone texts them. Or they see something on social media or news sites or whatever, and they go, oh, I wanna watch that. I'm gonna tune in. How do I tune in Netflix? Okay. I wanna get a bet on this. They open up FanDuel, DraftKings, whatever.

Andrew Pace [00:47:38]:

They can't find it. Maybe they even go to the support. Then they find out because that's the moment that they'll find out. And then they'll call someone and say, hey. You're call someone or or open an account or whatever. And and, betting sites will be capitalizing on this. You could probably Google right now, like, where to bet on the Tyson fight in Kentucky, and a bunch of sportsbooks are gonna pop up. And affiliate deals will be made from you clicking on those links.

Andrew Pace [00:48:02]:

Right? So, like, there you know, there's a whole business here.

Shane Mercer [00:48:04]:

For sure. Yeah. And, I'm sure a lot of those people that are looking forward and not finding it on the regular sportsbooks, they probably have already even got a gray market account out there, you know, that they're gonna be going straight to and and, you know, like, oh, yeah. I can't get it on DraftKings at FanDuel here in the state. But, oh, you know what? I'll just go to go to my, my good old gray book over here where I know I can bet stuff like that. But like I mentioned, if you are out there, Pinnacle is gonna be the place to get the very best odds on that fight. So go, check them out. And, if you're just signing up the first time, pinnacle.comforward/inplaylive is the place to get to sign up.

Andrew Pace [00:48:38]:

Yeah. It's actually kinda cool. So if you have not gone to that link, pinnacle.comforward/inplaylive, actually, go to it because they've they've

Shane Mercer [00:48:45]:

It's awesome.

Andrew Pace [00:48:46]:

Custom built they've custom built something for us now. And, like, I smile because it's got our logo up there and stuff, but it's a beautiful page. If you have any, any love for inplayLIVE or hate, go go check us out and, and let us know what you think. Cool. Yeah. I'm excited for the fight.

Shane Mercer [00:49:02]:

Yeah. Yeah. It should be a fun one. A fun one to watch, you know, just for the the entertainment value of it all as opposed to, you know, wanting to watch it to see a great boxing match. But, you know, I'm I'm just I'm just there for the circus of it all. I think it'll be fun. Yep. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:49:16]:

Alright. With that, now time for our gridiron grind with Ghost.

Andrew Pace [00:49:26]:

Alright, John. Another week of football in the books. And, last week, we passed on a teaser, But that was actually based on the lines when we recorded, and I think it's worth noting that it turned out to be a great week for teasers last week again. By the time we were on stream for the game in Germany, we ended up calling a teaser, with those chargers. The Chiefs came down to minus 6a half before kickoff, which I thought was crazy. They were insanely lucky to escape, but we ended up getting on the, the Chiefs chargers and the plus in Arizona. So when we recorded Arizona, I think, was minus 1a half. And by kickoff, they were plus 2.

Andrew Pace [00:50:03]:

So, yeah, we we we hit the teaser again, and I think that at a minimum, hopefully, when we go through these segments, it's helping people to recognize that. So, we had the the week where we had a a plus 7a half that ended up moving to plus 8a half on Houston, where by the time our recording was out, people would have ended up, winning. So just because we didn't take something on the podcast doesn't mean that some of these stars won't start to align for us, throughout the week. Let's flip over to college football, John, because we had another big loss last week. Obviously, Georgia just took their 2nd loss. Are there any games of note this week, as they relate to the playoffs, and divisions?

John Wilson [00:50:42]:

Yeah. Yeah. There's, I mean, there's a lot of teams playing that need just, you know, win to stay alive in the hunt for the playoff and everything, but they're really the only game really where there's 2 teams that have just a ton at stake is the Tennessee Georgia game. So Tennessee is going on the road to play Georgia. I think that line opened about, like, 11, 11a half, for Georgia, and it's been bet down under 10 now. So I make it about 10. So I'll probably be on the Georgia side there. But it's it's a it's an important game because I think if Georgia loses, they're they're they're probably done, honestly.

John Wilson [00:51:16]:

Very tough for them to to to get in at losing as a a near double digit favorite at home for a third loss. The Tennessee, I think, can survive if they play it close, and then they just need a lot of help from other teams. But they really don't have a lot of good wins. Like, Alabama is their really their only good win, and they've, really struggled on the road this season. So, I really don't think they're a strong team, but I don't know that I think that many teams in general are strong. So but, that's that's really the only game this week that's got those huge implications.

Andrew Pace [00:51:43]:

Yeah. Pretty wild to think if this was a 2 team championship or a 4 team playoff format this year because, you know, you'd have some of these biggest names not even in the discussion anymore. It would already be done. Before we flip the page on college football, I have to bring up this game. Kansas is 3 and 6. They're playing 9th ranked BYU. Well, rankings aren't out when we're recording this, so it might even be 8th or 7th ranked BYU. 9 and o, and they're minus 3.

Andrew Pace [00:52:14]:

What am I missing here?

John Wilson [00:52:17]:

I mean, I just I think that that's I think it's a pretty fair line. BYU is just simply they're just they're just simply not very good. I mean, they they they should have lost that game last week for more than one reason. I think we were when we were betting on that game, we were watching that game. We kept talking about how Utah was just playing the playing to lose the game, and they and they did, and they got punished for it. But but, I mean, the end of that game was a fiasco, and the league has even apologized for for how the game ended. So just kind of a kind of a joke. But, you know, like, you need a little bit of luck to to win.

John Wilson [00:52:50]:

So, we'll see. Maybe they can keep it going, but it's you know, I'll be honest. I'll probably be on Kansas in that game. We're just gonna keep keep betting them, betting against them.

Andrew Pace [00:53:00]:

Okay. Right on. Let's, let's head over to the NFL here. I think, when we're talking about teasers, obviously, to enter here, I think there's some unbelievable spots this week for a teaser. But we got the NFC East showdown for Thursday night football, commandos plus 3a half at Philly.

John Wilson [00:53:16]:

Yeah. So this is an interesting game. I I make this number about 4, so I think there it's like if I had to say, like, I think that there's value on the Eagles side, but half a point of value doesn't really excite me. I I I really I don't know if I think I might stay away from this game. What I'm interested in is how Jaden Daniels plays outdoors when the weather starts to get cold. You know, he's a California guy. He played at Arizona State LSU. Not a lot of cold weather, and I'd you know, and then in the northeast, you know, some of these games are gonna get kinda nasty with the weather.

John Wilson [00:53:48]:

It's gonna be windy and really cold. I think this game is gonna be in, like, single digits Celsius. So, I mean, it's gonna be a cold game. So I just kinda wanna see how that offense keeps moving as we get into cold weather.

Andrew Pace [00:53:59]:

Yeah. Absolutely. I'm gonna skip over the Colts, Jets for obvious reasons. We go to the, AFC North for another division showdown. This one's super exciting. Baltimore at the unbelievably surprising Steelers.

John Wilson [00:54:13]:

Yeah. I think the Steelers just continue to be disrespected. You know, I I thought that game should have been a pick against the Commanders. I think this game should be closer to a pick than it is. I may get the Ravens minus 1, minus 1a half. So, like, I there's still 3a halfs out there on the Steelers. Well, you know, normal juice minus 118, I think, you can go get right now. I like that already better.

John Wilson [00:54:36]:

You know, it's just I don't think the market's willing to catch up to them.

Andrew Pace [00:54:40]:

The Vikings are still considered to be a top team at 7 and 2. Any stance on them? I know you've talked about fading them making the playoffs, minus 6 at Tennessee.

John Wilson [00:54:51]:

Yeah. Yeah. They keep winning. So it's, you know, that that still like, the the values, I think, has been there all year, but they just keep finding a way to to win games. I've also caught some luck with some backup quarterbacks and stuff like that. Like, last week, they played against Mac Jones, and they looked not not good against, against the Jags team that's just pathetic. And so, again, they're playing another bad team in Tennessee. I make this slide about 5.

John Wilson [00:55:13]:

I'll probably take the titans. I took the first half under in this game. I think just 2 really good defenses against middling offenses or, I mean, bad offenses. I'm probably more concerned about the titans turning it over on their own side and scoring points that way.

Andrew Pace [00:55:26]:

Are you not concerned about how the titans have scored an opening drive touchdown in the Q1, like, 4 weeks in a row now and then thus the only touchdown of a game? Yeah.

John Wilson [00:55:35]:

Yeah. Hey. Just bet it again. Bet it again after they do it. That's that's what I'll do. Get that 23a half, 24. We'll see what the number is. But yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:55:43]:

I'll probably pass over the brown saints unless you're really excited in a couple of really bad teams. I actually wanna talk about the lions with you a little bit because my experience with these 10 plus and multi score spreads in the NFL, I can think back to some crazy lines, Miami against New England where New England needed to win the game to get home field by, and they lost to Denver in the AFC championship, and I would argue they lost to Denver. There's a failed two point conversion and a missed PAT by Steven Gaskowski. I would argue they lost that game because they didn't have home field advantage. They lost to Miami in week 17 as, like, 19 point pregame favorites. But there's a lot of notable ones. The Jaguars, were, I think, plus 22a half against Peyton Manning's Broncos. And, the Broncos did win that game, but I think they won it by, like, 10 or 7.

Andrew Pace [00:56:37]:

And it was actually, like, a pretty close game throughout the game. So what do you make of some of these big lines in the NFL that we are used to seeing in college, but obviously haven't really seen have we seen any line like this yet this year?

John Wilson [00:56:49]:

I think this is the first, like, near to touchdown. Like, this one this one's, like, 13 now, I think, as a time of we're recording this, which is I I mean, honestly, is about what I make the line, but it's you know, this has been a year of the backdoor and just garbage. Right? At the end of at the end of games, we've seen the worst of the worst quarterbacks go down the field and score a meaningless touchdown as time expires. Like, you you know, to cover a 13, 13 and a half, you need to be up 23 points at the end of the game to to feel good about it. You know? So I just think it the the the math kinda gets thrown out the window at the end of these games, and you just don't it it just I don't feel sorry for anybody who who's betting, like, minus 13 and a half in the NFL and lose then it gets a bad beat at the end. You know? So I I just I already marked this as a pass. I'm staying away.

Andrew Pace [00:57:36]:

Yeah. I'd probably I'd probably agree with you there because I think none of us would be surprised if the Lions won 51 to 7 either, and that 7 coming at the very last drive of the game. Yeah. Okay. We'll probably pass on the Packers, Bears, Raiders, Dolphins unless there's any standouts for you there. Rams, you said they keep being under handicap. We just saw them lose. Are you still interested in them?

John Wilson [00:57:58]:

Yeah. I still like the Rams. This this line, I think, is a little too high, though. Like, I think the Patriots have proven they keep games close. They stay competitive. Now especially with Drake May in there, I think he's he's been he's been pretty good. And they their defense plays well enough. So and it's, you know, again, outdoor these indoor teams going to the East Coast outdoors.

John Wilson [00:58:22]:

You know, so it's I I just I I do anything with this game, but it's it's just worth noting that I think there's value on the Rams from a season perspective, but not in this game. Okay. Team you've come back to time and again that you've said sucks, and

Andrew Pace [00:58:30]:

it that one has really come true. Denver, they're now 55 when they were looking like they, you know, they could be something special. Atlanta, 6 and 4, 1st in the NFC South. In what I would still consider to be a somewhat competitive division against, Denver plus 2 as underdogs? What are your thoughts there?

John Wilson [00:58:55]:

Yeah. Denver. So I make this, like, Falcons minus 2a half here. The the the number is moving that way or is moving, towards Denver. Like, Denver is getting getting hammered here, I think. So, like, the the sign opened as the Falcons' favorite. Now Denver is is, like, a 2 point favorite. So I actually like teasing the Falcons here even though it's on the road, but it's just I mean, low total, you know, these Denver games, like, they're just they tend to be grinders, and it's, you know, I think it's just tough for them to cover a large number.

John Wilson [00:59:21]:

So I think it's a good teaser spot.

Andrew Pace [00:59:23]:

Alright. We get into some real meat and bones here now. The most competitive division in football right now, we got the Seahawks taking on the niners.

John Wilson [00:59:31]:

Yeah. I show some value on the niners here. I was thinking maybe tease them down, to, you know, just like a close to a pick. I think there's a lot of value there. I think they looked they looked really good in the first half against the Bucks, and then they kinda turned it on again at the end. But the I think they're just a superior team. I think Seattle has some issues. I also don't know if Metcalf's playing, which I think is really important for Seattle.

Andrew Pace [00:59:56]:

Extremely important. So definitely keep an eye on that. Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, probably the best matchup in football every single year. What do you got?

John Wilson [01:00:04]:

Yeah. I think it should be a pick. And so I think right now, the Bills are minus 2a half. It's just like, here we go again with Mahomes as an underdog. Why? Like, I just the, you know, the the people that make the lines are sharp, but, you know, they're at some point, you just have to abandon your your models and everything, and you just have to say, like, it's Mahomes as a dog. Why is he a dog? Why is he ever a dog? And I get, like, balancing the money on either side and all of that, but I just say let people sleep. Let people bet this, this Bills team. You know? But they're you know? So it's crazy.

John Wilson [01:00:38]:

I'll be on the Chiefs.

John Wilson [01:00:41]:

Not much to say. Tease it. Tease it. Bet it bet it straight up. Bet the money line.

Andrew Pace [01:00:45]:

Yep. Totally. And I think also too, I mean, this is a the Chiefs are grinding out some tough wins here. Right? We got super lucky on the teaser as I mentioned with the block field goal. Yeah. They're showing up for this game. The Bills are showing up too. This is what football is all about.

Andrew Pace [01:00:59]:

This game is what football is all about. Sunday night football, Bengals plus 1a half at the chargers.

John Wilson [01:01:05]:

Yeah. They this they flexed this game. I think it was supposed to be Colts, Jets.

John Wilson [01:01:12]:

Like, this is the first flex maybe. Yeah. The actually, I I have a weird I have a weird line on this. I actually made this made the Bengals a slight favorite in this game, which I was kind of surprised, when I dug through the math on this one. But, I I like, I like to take I'm gonna take Cincinnati. I I like them in a teaser as well. I think there's chargers.

John Wilson [01:01:34]:

You know, the chargers team has played really well. They just play low scoring games. Their offense is kind of, like, just sputtering. So I think just, you know, getting the Bengals with an opportunity to backdoor there at, like, a 7a half, 8a half number is is really good.

Andrew Pace [01:01:46]:

Yeah. For sure. So, guys, I'm we're gonna pass on Monday night football here with the Texans playing the Cowboys, the battle of the battle of, Texas there. I'm just gonna run through, teaser a teaser this week. It's hard for me to make an official, call because I'm gonna be on a combination of a bunch of these different ones. Because when there's a really good week, where, you know, I potentially have 4 or 5 games, I will have something where they're all put together. But, usually, I just view this as a great week to look as square as I possibly can by putting different combinations of, you know, 2 to 4 of these together. There are 2 games I'm gonna say that do also scare me, so I'm will be less on these ones than others.

Andrew Pace [01:02:23]:

The first is the Commandos. I love a division battle where I'm going through, up to plus 9a half, teasing them up to plus 9a half. The second is the Steelers at home. You can tease them up to plus 9 as we're recording this. There's a chance that that even moves further, and we could get to plus 10. But those are all those are the 2 games that also I wouldn't be surprised at all if both of those teams got absolutely curb stomped. The next are, the, the Atlanta Falcons on the road to plus 8, potentially even more. The niners at home, down to a pick, the Chiefs up to plus 8a half, and the Bengals up to plus 7a half, which I think, John, there's only one of the games there that you didn't just automatically say without us talking about it first that I like these teaser spots.

Andrew Pace [01:03:12]:

So, that's a lot of games, and I do anticipate a couple of those probably losing as as they tend to. We've been on a real heater with these, but I'm gonna be on a combination of of those games.

John Wilson [01:03:25]:

Yeah. I'd also add in the I know we skipped over the Browns game, but that line's kinda moving towards Cleveland. So if you can get the Saints at, like, plus 1a half, keys that up to 7a half, I think that's another good one. Like, asking Jameis Winston to cover 7a half on the road. You know what I mean? It's that's I think that's a good spot.

Andrew Pace [01:03:41]:

Yeah. I I'd agree with that, and I think it's also important that if you're listening, I had, some people send me some screenshots from a previous week where we talked about a line that we maybe would have wanted to get, and then they just bought a higher value teaser. And the other picks on it won, which is great. But the other picks on the teaser, they went through numbers where it didn't make sense. So instead of getting, like, plus 160 on 3 picks, it was, like, plus 110. And I think for anyone listening, that stuff really does matter. So don't go buy the saints on a 10 point teaser now. That's not what we're saying.

Andrew Pace [01:04:12]:

We're saying if it if it, you know, moves to that plus 1a half plus 2 range, then that's another one to to add to the list. Alright, John. Super appreciate it, man.

Shane Mercer [01:04:20]:

Alright, John. Great stuff. Thanks for that. And, again, if anybody's interested in taking some action on that, Pinnacle is the place to do it. You'll get the very best odds there. Sign up at pinnacle.comforward/inplaylive. Alright. PACE, John.

Shane Mercer [01:04:34]:

Sports Bettors from around the world till next week. Keep beating those books. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download, and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below. And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code BEHINDTHELINES.