Episode 89

Welcome [00:00:00]:

You're listening to Behind the Lines, a podcast presented by inplayLIVE and powered by Pinnacle, the number one sports book where winners play and never get limited. Go to pinnacle.com/inplaylive to sign up and get in the game.

GosuThune [00:00:15]:

If you look at that line graph, it's just for this month, and that dip looks really bad. What if you zoomed it out for the last year? You know? You probably wouldn't even really be able to see that dip. Yeah. Right? Like, it's it's become so insignificant that, like, small losing stretch that week compared to 50 weeks of of almost all exclusively winning.

Shane Mercer [00:00:50]:

Hello. Welcome in. It's behind the lines powered by Pinnacle and purifying the sports betting industry. I'm your host, Shane Mercer. That guy over there, Andrew Pace, founder of inplayLIVE, a community of like minded sports bettors dedicated to long term success. One of those sports bettors is the great Gosu himself, John Wilson, joining us for the full show today. John, glad to have you with us for the full hour.

GosuThune [00:01:11]:

Yeah. Excited. Thanks for having me.

Shane Mercer [00:01:13]:

Yeah. Glad to have you with us, buddy. Alright. On today's show, Ontario pushes for DFS, Michael Lewis, Explorers Limiting, a little month in review, and, of course, the gridiron grind. That's why we got John with us here for it. Alright. So I always love to start off with some betting news or some news in the space, and this one mostly applies to people where I live here in Ontario. But I think it can lead to a little bit of a bigger discussion.

Shane Mercer [00:01:39]:

So but first, a little bit of background on what we're talking about. Alright. When Ontario became a regulated sports betting market going back a few years now, I think all the way to 2021, spring of 2021, one of the downsides of that, and this sort of impacted me in the moment because, I was really heavily into DFS, both NFL and NBA. And what it meant was is that DFS in Ontario basically came to an end. FanDuel and DraftKings were allowed to offer their betting services in the province, and and, you know, that was great. But they made the decision to stop offering DFS because the law stated that all peer to peer contests in Ontario needed to take place within the province. Meaning, people in Ontario could only play against other people in Ontario. And this also applies to the poker to online poker as well.

Shane Mercer [00:02:32]:

Now, of course, there is the gray market out there, and you can go and explore those avenues for both of those things. But if you wanted to play in the regulated market, you could only play against other people in Ontario. So that meant that the biggest providers of DFS, FanDuel, and DraftKings said, you know, screw that. We're out. But, hey, here's all you can you can bet with our sites instead. So it all comes down to the criminal code. So it has this this issue, the the sort of stipulation in the criminal code about, betting being within the province. So fast forward to now, Ontario, the province itself went to the highest court in the province, the Ontario Court of Appeal, and is challenging that.

Shane Mercer [00:03:14]:

They want DFS. The province wants DFS in Ontario. They want people in Ontario to play against people outside of Ontario. So it went to the the Court of Appeal. It's made its arguments and, the arguments came to a close last week, and the Ontario Court of Appeal, is reserving its decision. It's a panel of judges, 5 judges, and we're expecting a decision on that within the next few months. So that got me thinking. When DFS left and I was no longer allowed to play DFS, I was like, oh, this kinda sucks.

Shane Mercer [00:03:49]:

You know? And then I sort of found other things, and I I didn't worry about it, and I kinda just moved on with life. Then I found Imply live, and I started focusing on sports betting on a more sort of, regular basis and a much more serious basis than I ever took DFS. For me, DFS was just something fun to do. I never really, made any significant money at it. I did win a couple of of big tournaments. One of them, like, a 500 person tournament. But for the most part, I was a long term DFS loser. And so, now it got me wondering, like, oh, if DFS comes back, would I go back to DFS? And I don't think I would.

Shane Mercer [00:04:22]:

I I just sort of where I am now and kind of looking at DFS as something that I think, you know, I would probably lose that long term. But I've also heard a lot of people talking about daily fantasy sports out there as something that's what, you know, a lot of sharps describe as solved. Right? It's it's mostly solved in the sense that it's all sharp people playing DFS. It's sharp people playing against other sharps at DFS, and they're all sort of struggle to carve out a tiny little, edge in the space if you're if you're even capable of doing it. And and and I think the same is true for for online poker as well, which, which you guys I know, PACE, you have a lot of experience in. John, I don't know if you do any online poker or DFS, but I sort of wanna throw it out there. Like, do you guys do DFS being outside of Ontario? Do you find it something to be mostly solved? And and is it worth it? So so Right. You know, out there, whoever wants to go first.

Andrew Pace [00:05:20]:

Well, I think just from the standpoint of legalization before I actually talk about my experience with it, You know, it's it's how how do you pull that? How is that technically illegal in Ontario?

Andrew Pace [00:05:36]:

It's just dumb. Yeah. Just dumb.

Shane Mercer [00:05:37]:

And the province agrees.

Andrew Pace [00:05:40]:

Yeah. You know, BetHog we had BetHog on and, you know, Nigel was talking about, you know, peer to peer, models for casino games. Right? Mhmm. Where it's like a tournament style. You know, DFS is is essentially that. Right? Like, pick everyone has the same budget. Everyone has the same access to information. Right? Pick pick your favorite team that you want, and, there's a rake.

Andrew Pace [00:06:01]:

Right? Like, the rake sitting in the middle there. Now when you talk about, like, is it solved? I I look back on the early days. Right? And what I would do is I would go into a DFS room, and I would try to find the tournament that wouldn't fill. So if they had a guaranteed prize and the tournament didn't fill, there was actually an edge for playing in that event.

Shane Mercer [00:06:23]:

Right. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:06:23]:

Good point. Right? So, like, if they said guaranteed prize of $1,000 and it was, like, a $10 buy in and you didn't get up to the entrance to actually have that $1,000 be paid for, There was a small edge sitting inside of that room. Those were extremely rare, and those were gone almost instantly as the hype for it grew. Because I was in there a little bit earlier than perhaps some other people were. I was betting so small at the time that, yeah, I won a couple events, but I don't think I ever ended up withdrawing any money. Like, maybe I deposited a 100 and got my balance up to a few $100 and thought it was super fun and cool. And and I know I never withdrew. So that will give you my experience with it.

Andrew Pace [00:07:06]:

I've referenced this a bunch, but the Action Network or Showtime, documentary on gambling that, featured Bill Krakkenberg, and then somehow they spotlighted Vegas, Dave. They also spotlighted a a a guy who was a DFS pro. And, it was pretty crazy what he shared in that documentary because I was pretty enthralled with what he was doing. I was like, holy shit. Because I was making money betting at the time and seeing what he was doing with DFS. I was like, wow. This is so freaking cool. But he he had a massive bankroll, and he was deploying 100 of 1,000 of dollars each week.

Andrew Pace [00:07:42]:

And the expected growth of his bankroll each week was actually it was expected each week that he would lose. So the whole goal is to win 1 or 2 weeks of the season. And, you know, it's really just his algorithm versus the public. Right? So, he's the one tracking weather. He's the one tracking injuries. He's the one tracking player value when the rest of the money at the time was extremely square lottery ticket type money, which still exists today. But when you say, is it solved, what he did and what he built, I could build probably with chat gbt in the next maybe 45 minutes. Wow.

Andrew Pace [00:08:26]:

Right? I am someone might think I'm insane for saying that, and they're like, Pace, you're totally wrong. But regardless of whether I'm right or wrong, it's a lot easier to do today than than what it was then, and that largely eliminates, his edge. Now referencing online poker, it is similar. Every single hand that you play, out comes the hand, which is the rake, and pulls in the cut for the casino. The same is true with DFS. So you have to have an edge that's that's beating that as well. And when you have that environment where everyone's money comes in together and you're not winning money, say, off of the casino or you're not winning money off of someone else specifically, and it's that pooled money where the rate comes out, I do think there tends to be diminishing margins where, you know, it may have been really good and things obviously regress to the point where that might be completely eliminated. I was playing pickleball last week with, a girl.

Andrew Pace [00:09:26]:

Her name's Jen, and, she's a professional poker player, for years years years, like, an actual professional poker player. We had Gabe from, the survivor pools on, Shane, who was also a professional poker player. Same story from both of them. They gave me the same story without they both know each other, but they don't know that I've spoken to both of them. And they both they give me identical stories. Right? And that is that, the edge is is gone or largely gone, because of the fact that people have access to all that same information. That's that's really just narrowed things in overall. So I just think it's fun.

Andrew Pace [00:10:05]:

Right? Like, when we talk about sports betting at its core, it's something that you throw $10 on a game, a $100 on a game. It makes it a lot more entertaining. It's it is fun. I think DFS is super fun. I think fantasy is super fun. Right? So I think it just fits into that bucket. And, if I lived in Ontario and it got taken away from me and then it was relegalized, I'd I'd I'd I'd kind of throw a few bucks in it again, Shane, and just, you know, slap couple lottery tickets together.

Shane Mercer [00:10:33]:

Yeah. You know, the thing is is that, like, I was thinking I was taking it maybe you know, I was trying to take it seriously and spending so much time on it and building my lineups that, like, I don't know that I'd wanna spend that amount of time, but maybe maybe going and throwing a couple bucks on something and just, you know, slapping something together in a few minutes might be something I I do. I don't know. I I just I I don't have that urge to to go back to it. John, how about you? Do you do any DFS? Is it still really popular in the States?

GosuThune [00:11:00]:

You know, I think with regulation of an easier access to just online sports betting in general, I think it's kind of fallen from popularity. I mean, I I don't have any stats to to really prove that. It's just kind of anecdotal. Like, I don't really have any friends that do it anymore. I have some friends that used to do it all the time, because we didn't have any sort of sports gambling where I am. But then once online sports betting became regulated here, people just flock to that instead. Because then you can still bet on all your favorite players or whatever. You know? Like, it's you're you kinda still get that same fix.

GosuThune [00:11:30]:

Plus, I think it actually becomes more of, like, a team type sport, where you can all you and all your buddies ride the same bets together. Whereas if you're playing DFS, you know, that's it's kind of like you're playing head to head against other people, and you may not have the same players as your buddies if you're, you know, trying to talk about it or something. So I think player people kind of just gravitate more towards those, cooperative activities, which is, you know, sports betting skies, cooperative activity, for groups of friends. You know, I I do know one of the founders of Roto Grinders, which is a Oh, yeah. Like a DFS.

Shane Mercer [00:12:04]:

I used it all the time.

GosuThune [00:12:05]:

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So I I I know I know him, and he is his you know, they sold that company to DraftKings, and then they were, you know, they're those guys are working on, like, doing something in just the betting space because they think that's where the better opportunity is. And one thing he definitely talked about was that, like, that edge disappearing where it used to be, you know, you build a platform like Roto Grinders to help casual people be better than other casual players. Right? But those casual players using services like that are still not going to be as good as people who create their own stuff and maintain it. Right? Because they're all using the same thing, so they don't have an edge over each other. Whereas someone who's using their own unique system for modeling and and valuing players is gonna have an edge over them because they're simply contrarian.

GosuThune [00:12:55]:

So, that he's he he mentioned that to me, and it's like I said, I've that's not something I've really played that much, but, it that's it's interesting that that, that seems to be a a common sentiment.

Shane Mercer [00:13:06]:

Yeah. That's interesting to to because you do need to be contrarian in in DFS and you know? But but building out your own stuff, I mean, that's yeah. Like, I I use something like Roto Grinders so that I can have to go through the work of building out something on my own because I don't even think I'm I don't even have the skills to to build that kind of modeling. John, you probably do have those kinds of skills where you could do something like that. But yeah. Anyway, I I thought it was interesting that, the people of Ontario are are certainly gonna sit back and watch this. I know I have a lot of friends that play DFS, so we'll we'll see what the decision is once it comes down, and then we'll see if people flock back to it in any kind of significant way because, I don't know if I will. Anyway, I wanted to bring that up.

Andrew Pace [00:13:44]:

Shane Shane, we would we would have to bring back the inplayLIVE season long DFS.

Shane Mercer [00:13:49]:

Oh, yeah. I know. That's right.

Andrew Pace [00:13:51]:

The biggest beef of that. So we we this is the first season we haven't done it, but we'd have to bring it back because the biggest beef was people from Ontario who couldn't play the free version.

Andrew Pace [00:13:58]:

It's completely blocked, and they couldn't like, it's funny. We'll find workarounds and things like that. People were like, we just can't figure this out.

Shane Mercer [00:14:08]:

So Well, there we go. I I would definitely compete in that. So There you go. There we go. I'll get I'll get my DFS fixed that way. No. That'll that'll be fun. Alright.

Shane Mercer [00:14:16]:

I wanna bring up, Michael Lewis. For anybody out there who doesn't know who I'm talking about, he's probably best known as the author of Moneyball. You know, the movie started turned into a movie starring Brad Pitt. Fantastic film. Great book. I've read all of his books. He's a fantastic author and journalist. Liar's Poker, about Wall Street in the eighties.

Shane Mercer [00:14:36]:

The Big Short about the, housing, collapse in the US in the 2008, 2009. Another, book that was turned into a great movie. So, you're you know, a guy who sort of explores the intersection of sports and culture and, and economy in a major way. So he's got a podcast out called against the rules, and, I started listening to this, because, of course, I'm I'm interested, in in in his work for 1, but also in the topic that he's exploring, which is sports betting. So that's what he's doing for his latest season here, and he sort of frames it around the viewpoint of the fans as as that's the person he's exploring, but it's sort of the fans and then how the fans engage with their favorite sports and how sports betting has sort of put itself smack dab in the middle of all of it. And, one of the themes and and the the the season is not not by any means over. We're sort of, like, halfway through the season. It may be not even quite halfway.

Shane Mercer [00:15:33]:

But, I bring it up because he's exploring the topic of limited, and, I it it's really sort of interesting to hear someone like him come at it this topic in sort of this exploratory way and and from a very sort of objective viewpoint. Because although I'm a journalist, I think whenever I talk about this topic, I come at it from a very biased point of view, Payson. I I think you would probably say the same that you're quite biased on this particular viewpoint. But it's interesting to sort of hear this guy come at it and explore it in this way where it's like, wait a minute. They do what? But they say this thing on the ads. But but they do this? And, anyway, I I bring it up just to sort of put it out there as something for our audience that I think our audience will really appreciate. So, you know, I I I wanted to sort of mention it and bring it up. Have either of you guys listened to it yet? No.

Shane Mercer [00:16:27]:

I have I have it wrong. Negative. Okay. I encourage you guys to to check it out. Have a listen. But, I I think the big takeaway for me is that we've got a guy of this caliber who's now sounding the alarm on this. And multiple times in his show, he's like, we've reached out to DraftKings. We've reached out to FanDuel.

Shane Mercer [00:16:44]:

We've, like, we've we've requested their comment on this topic, and it's, like, just silence from them, which is kind of funny because it's, like, you just just say you do it. We had Nigel on, right, a couple of weeks ago, you know, who was just very, you know, clear and straightforward pace telling you if you go and play at his site, you will get limited. You know? Just an honest straightforward approach that this is how it's done. You will get limited. Like, why can't they just come out and say that that's what they do? I don't know. Anyway, a great great podcast. I'm enjoying the listen. I'm enjoying hearing him explore it, and I think it's just awesome to have someone, you know, at his level, sort of go and and sound the alarm on this and kind of raise it as as a red flag.

Andrew Pace [00:17:29]:

Yeah. I think that's the that's the real takeaway. Right? Yeah. You know, awareness is so key. And, you know, you say we're biased on this. I think we see the whole we see the whole picture. Right? We understand the role of it all and just really at the end of the day, we we wanna make sure that there are options and that there is awareness. And when you piece that all together and you get a guy like this with his magnitude representing, you know, potentially the player's side in all this, that's where, you know, things things may start to turn to an extent.

Andrew Pace [00:18:01]:

Right? When you put when you you know, the Massachusetts thing, everything, you put it together and you go, okay. But, you know, this we're we're we're gaining some legs in this race.

Shane Mercer [00:18:09]:

Yeah. And that that that's the big takeaway. And, you know, he he talks actually to a lot of people pace that we've had here on the show, already. So so it's kind of interesting to sort of hear them as as kind of characters in in his sort of podcast episodes. So so pretty cool stuff there. I encourage everybody to go have a listen. I I don't wanna spend too much time talking about it, but but great show. Alright.

Shane Mercer [00:18:28]:

I wanna get to to sort of, the meat and potatoes of the show today, because, we are on December 2nd recording this. And, I wanna do a little bit of a a look back at at the month of November because, it certainly had its challenges, to to say the least, I think. And and I think, you know, talking about challenges in sports betting, I don't think it happens nearly enough, at least in the in the general, podcast sports betting podcast world. You know, you listen to a lot of different sports betting podcasts. You get a lot of people coming on talking about, you know, how they're how they're pro sports bettors. They they, you know, they they make their living off of this, and then they give you a bunch of picks. And then, you know, next week you go back and, you know, they don't even talk about their record or whatever. You know, they're just moving forward all the time without ever kind of, looking back, and they certainly never talk about, their struggles as pro sports bettors or at least it's very rare.

Shane Mercer [00:19:25]:

And, I I wanted to mention it. I wanna, you know, have this sort of conversation about November because there was there there were certainly some struggles in it, but I also just think that our audience appreciates it. And and one sort of way that I I know that to be true is that, you know, back at the beginning of September or perhaps the end of September, mid September, pace, you'll remember I came on and kinda talked a little bit about how I was struggling at the beginning of the NFL season. And, I had a lot of people reach out to me after that kind of being like, hey thanks for talking about that. And I actually got invited on to another podcast, called, Props and Hops, hosted by this guy Matt Lanz. And, he said that one of the reasons he brought me on was because he had heard that episode and found it to be really refreshing to hear somebody kind of, talk about their struggles. So, PACE, when you go on, you your struggles are already so public. And, John, same for you because you're one of the pros for for people who don't know or aren't part of our community.

Shane Mercer [00:20:21]:

You know, John's also a pro who's on the live streams with PACE calling out bets live. And, you know, when you guys are having a bad run, like like, it's so public. You know? Whereas my bad run maybe isn't as public or I can choose to make it public or not make it public. But when you guys go on a bad run, it's it's it's so public. And, you know, November did have its its ups and downs and some significant challenges. So I think you guys have come out on the other side now and really sort of bounced back, which is awesome. But how do you go through that process? Or or, you know, what kind of insight can you give to people into that process of of, you know, the ups I think, you know, people can relate to. They're quite easy, but those downs can be pretty significant downs.

Shane Mercer [00:21:07]:

And and, you know, to be doing it so publicly has to be an extra challenge. So, you know, what kind of insights can you give to people out there, on how you kind of navigated those waters in November?

Andrew Pace [00:21:19]:

I think what separates, potentially the 3 of us and really any other betting pro from someone who just isn't a pro, is the understanding of your decision making, being profitable while it's losing. And that is so hard to live through versus to listen to. The difference of living through it and listening to it are fundamentally different. So you can't let the quality of your result assess the quality of a decision. And it doesn't matter if it's, you know, showing up at a bakery, because you wanted to get a chocolate chip cookie and then being sold out, and they you saw the person in front of you get the last cookie, and you say I should have left earlier, or you being stuck in traffic behind an accident that you missed the accident. You know, you're behind the accident stuck, and you go, I should've done I I shouldn't have why the hell did I listen to you when you said you needed to go back to get your jacket? Things like that where you go, you cannot change the past. It's physically impossible. And the decision that you made was made at the time for a reason, and all you can do is look back on whether you would make that decision again.

Andrew Pace [00:22:44]:

So with betting, you wanna assess the quality of your decision, based on the data that you had at the time that you made it, not after, it came through. So I'll give you guys a really good example that I actually referenced this in my primer that was out on Monday for our our group. But we had a Pittsburgh Penguins, hockey opportunity come in, in the group where everything about the opportunity, we we really liked from a data standpoint. But then when we actually watched what they did on the ice, it was very contradictory to the data that we had. We lost that bet, and it turned out that it was a terrible bet, but the data itself supported it. So that's actually a strange one because sometimes we'll lose a bet where we go, oh my god. Like, that was a great bet. We really, really got unlucky there.

Andrew Pace [00:23:34]:

You know, things went our way. It just didn't win. Right? Whereas in this particular example, the reason why I bring it up is because once we made the bet, their the motivation of the team wasn't in line with with with the wager that we made, and it was evident. Right? So all you can do is take that data that you have, make a decision based on it, and then obviously based on since it's live betting that we're talking about, a lot of people will with the pregame and then the game starts and it's done. With live betting, it's also based on the flow of that game and what's happening in that game and and some other factors, you know, that that we'll we'll look at. And then once that result has come in, is update the data in that circumstance and go, okay. Pittsburgh, data the the data for them just got a little bit worse, but separately of that, the motivation in that spot changed as well. Will I bet Pittsburgh again? Maybe.

Andrew Pace [00:24:29]:

But I've added that into my notes and my data so that the next time it comes through, that's just a little reminder. We do that with basketball all the time, right, with the end of game and and NBA games and and how teams are behaving. It might be one way, 5 times in a row, and then you just get this outlying situation that comes through that completely didn't align with the previous 5. And there's nothing that you can do about that. So I'm just gonna keep rumbling here. November had one of my worst betting weeks that I've ever had in my life. Okay? And you can see if you're watching on YouTube right now, there's it's so evident when you look at a chart like this where you go, what are they talking about? You know? It's just it's just bottom to top, up the whole way. Right? Very linear in into an extent.

Andrew Pace [00:25:19]:

But the the the week there in the middle of November was was truly one of my worst betting weeks of my life. I basically zeroed out my active bankroll, which separately of of having a bad week goes against what you're taught to do. Because that means you're over betting. That means, you know, you're you're you're not scaling down from a percentage standpoint. So if you're betting, you know, 1% or 2% units or or maybe some people are doing a little bit higher than that, you know, if if you lose half of that, you shouldn't be wagering the same dollar amount. That percentage should obviously slide down. Well, as you guys know, you know, sometimes your active bankroll doesn't actually represent what you have in your war chest from a betting standpoint. So my active bankroll losses, I would say for most people, they would have been significant.

Andrew Pace [00:26:10]:

But at the same time, I looked back on the week and I went, you know what? Life's good. Let's reset. When I reset, essentially, what I'm doing is I'm looking at, you know, what books I have access to, how much money I can get into those books, but also, doing it in a way where I'm like, hey. You know what? I'm not gonna chase here. I'm gonna be content with, you know, 2 to $5,000 full units, and as opposed to 10 to $20,000 full units, and and just run this thing up again. Right? And, after I did that, we had 2 losing days for the rest of the month. Finished the month with 7 winning days in a row there. And I ended up having just a spectacular November because of that reset.

Andrew Pace [00:26:54]:

And I actually hit the 6 figure club, from that reset in those 2 weeks, which was just incredible. But during that one week, we lost a bunch of members that couldn't survive. Right? Like, it was difficult. And and I do wanna give a huge shout out to the to our team. So if you can see this here, we have everyone's units for the month. I think this is one of the first months ever where after a full month, my calls were were down. It's definitely not the 1st month ever, but it's one of, where my calls were down. And, we got John on the podcast with us here.

Andrew Pace [00:27:28]:

He he led the charge. 8.64 units, he called in November. So from my personal journey as a sports bettor, I'm still calling bets, and I had a spectacular end of my month, like, spectacular. And a lot of it is credit to the team where I get to piggyback on what they're doing and really become a member in a lot of ways, where I get to listen to them, follow their calls, and and and take action on them. So, yeah, just a huge shout out to to to the whole team for for really making some great calls, but we have John on with us. So just a massive shout out to John for, you know, really just keeping things moving for all of us.

Shane Mercer [00:28:05]:

Yeah. John, holy shit, buddy. Nice work. I had no idea until I saw this chart here that that you really kind of pulled pulled everybody up, throughout the month. How did it go for you then? And and, you know, did you also experience that kind of mid month crash or dip or whatever you wanna call it? Just looking at the chart there.

GosuThune [00:28:26]:

Yeah. Yeah. I can't remember exactly what days those were, but I'm I'm looking at, like, my November. And and, yeah, I mean, I definitely had, like, in the middle part of the month, I had a couple of really bad days. I had one I had one day in particular that was, like, an absolute just train wreck. And, you know, like, for me, it's everybody is there you know, there's variance in what we do, obviously. Right? But there's even there's variance within the variance of, like, what bets can you actually get? Like, can you get the like, if if we call a bet because it's an advantage line, can you actually get that line, and how much can you get on that relative to how much you wanna get on that bet? You know, there are some bets we see on some of these books where it's like, I put 2 units on that if I could, but I know I can't. Right? But it's like if you're a if you're a $100 bettor, you there's some days where you could probably make 20 units if you're really exploiting some of these, some of these bad lines.

GosuThune [00:29:19]:

But, you know, for most of us, like, it's it's typically not possible to do that. So, you know, I think, like, college football has been my best sport so far this year, and we've really found a ton of success leaning into the variance in that league with the overs and and that sort of thing and and betting some of those massive spreads. So, we've really done well, and I'm even I'm probably as handicapped or if not more handicapped than anybody out there, in my ability to bet those, because of where I am. So, and it still was my best sport. So, you know, that's our no excuse mindset. So despite a lot of really bad beats and a lot of stuff that didn't go our way, you know, just powering through and finding a way to be profitable, I had a had a solid month. It wasn't anything spectacular, but it was it was still good. It's still better than, like, what I want my average month to be.

GosuThune [00:30:11]:

And, you know, so I I definitely can't complain about that at all.

Shane Mercer [00:30:15]:

Wow. Still better than what you want your average month to be.

GosuThune [00:30:19]:

Yeah. If I'm like if I you know, I set goals for myself, how much money I I I wanna try to make and, like, I call it our, like, fiscal year. Right? You know, maybe, like, August August through May, kind of, or August through the mid the early part of June with the NHL NBA playoffs. But, you know, I have a goal, and, like, it's, like, how much money do I need to make up per month to reach that goal? And, you know, I was I was over that, in in November. October October was tough, for me personally just because I think, you know, we had to do some adjusting, but it really bounced back, after we figured all that out, and, November was good.

Shane Mercer [00:30:52]:

Wow. That that's awesome. Well well, again, congrats to you, buddy. And then kudos to you for sort of, you know yeah. Like like Pace kinda said, kinda, being the driver for the team there and, you know, helping keep everybody afloat and and up. You know, Pace, you mentioned that, you know, we lost a lot of members during that that that downside swing.

Andrew Pace [00:31:10]:

Not a lot. Not a lot.

Shane Mercer [00:31:12]:

But some. Yeah. Yeah. You know, what advice do you have for people out there on on how to weather those storms?

Andrew Pace [00:31:20]:

Yeah. So I think experience is the greatest the greatest your greatest asset in in this stuff. And the reason why I say it is because when you live through a bad week before or a bad day before and I'll I'll give you guys an example. Okay? So let's say you're you're new to betting, and you you've learned these strategies with inplayLIVE or anywhere else. It doesn't matter what system, what program it is, what advice you're receiving, what modeling you're using, and it's working. You're making money. You're really positive. You're really happy.

Andrew Pace [00:31:53]:

You're validated in the purchase that you made, and you're really excited for the future. And to an extent, sometimes as humans, we all have this sort of Superman syndrome where, you know, bad things happen to other people, but they don't happen to us. Right? So I remember the first time I got limited by a sports book. I had heard about it, but I didn't believe it. I was like, oh, that that that happens to other people.

Shane Mercer [00:32:19]:

You didn't believe it. Thats hilarious.

Andrew Pace [00:32:21]:

I believed I believed it, but I just when it when I got that email from that book, because we all know what book I'm talking about.

Shane Mercer [00:32:30]:

Yeah, For sure.

Andrew Pace [00:32:32]:

My heart sank. And I was literally like, what am I going to do? Whereas now I might get that email from various books, and a lot of books don't send you an email. You just find out when you log in and try to bet.

Andrew Pace [00:32:47]:

You know I might get get it a dozen times in a week. Right? So there's a lot of different things with this separately of winning or losing, but where you feel bulletproof. And you might take that confidence and that high into the next day and go, okay. We lost that one. We lost that one. We lost that one. We were not losing this one. And you make really poor decisions.

Andrew Pace [00:33:09]:

So with experience, you recognize that it's normal to lose, and that and that weathering that storm is an is is there's nothing more important for survival, in this. So when we talk about struggles, then we talk about coming out on the other end. I'm sure there's someone listening to this right now that just simply didn't come out on the other end. Right? And and we may have lost them, and I don't mean we as a community. I mean, we may have lost them as a potential, you know, professional sports bettor, sports value analyst, whatever you wanna call it. So for those of the those are the people that are on the edge, that are on the bubble, the biggest thing is taking ownership. Right? So you see me there on the on the chart negative 2 units for the month. Should you follow my bets next month? Right? The point is you take that ownership where you go, I'm making this bet for this reason and for this amount.

Andrew Pace [00:34:07]:

And if it loses, I know that I made the right decision at the time. I didn't assess the the the the wager based on the outcome. I'm gonna assess it before I make the wager and and at the time I make the wager, and and then you become really, really comfortable and confident for the for the future and and moving forward. Yeah. I I my personal growth as a bettor has been tremendous because they're the I think back to November 2022 and some other challenging times before in PlayLive, and I questioned everything. I went, oh, does this not work anymore? And by this, I don't mean this strategy. I mean, everything. Does this not work anymore? Whereas now when this happens, I know.

Andrew Pace [00:34:59]:

Okay. Hit the reset button. Let's rock and roll. Let's make really smart decisions, and and let's let's let's get this back and and more. And, time and again, I'll I'll say to myself, why were you worried about anything? Just get back on the horse and and do the best job you possibly can, and then the results speak for itself. But a big part of it too, Shane, is obviously improving. Like, you have to look at those losing runs and go, what did I do wrong? You don't just go like, oh, this was perfect, and they're just all bad beats and good bets. That's just never the case.

Andrew Pace [00:35:30]:

So what did I do wrong? Where did I overexpose? Where did I chase? And and just kinda continue down that path of constantly trying to improve. And, you know, tracking is just such a major part of that. And, you know, again, if if you just zoom out and you look at this chart, you go, what are you complaining about? And, you know, for the people that that didn't make it through, this run I soon as, our commander's first half bet loss yesterday, there was some of that left as it lost. Right? Right in that moment. And it's like, I just know that person made a bunch of mistakes in that game. And did that game hurt in that moment? Yeah. I didn't I didn't wanna lose, but, like, if you had 3 quarters of a unit on that on that game, you just move on.

Shane Mercer [00:36:18]:

Yeah. And it's it's too bad for that person because they weren't able to stick around for the Buffalo game last night, which was just phenomenal. Talk about capitalizing on a situation. You know? But, PACE, I I you know, you're you're sort of talking about the dip there. And I remember right after that weekend where we're at the bottom of that dip, you know, and we're here, showing up on Monday to record the the podcast, you know, you and I, and I think maybe we had a guest that day. But it was like, you know, both just sort of talking about how that little dip there. Right now, it looks like a significant dip. But on the year chart, it's gonna look like like like that.

Shane Mercer [00:36:56]:

You know what I mean? It's gonna look like nothing on the year chart. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. So it's, it's, just a great way to you know, you gotta just be reminded of those lessons, and then I'm glad you brought up the Superman syndrome because I know that that happens. I know I can be guilty of it.

Shane Mercer [00:37:11]:

And it's it's it's, just something to always remember that, you know, you're you're not, you know, you're not Teflon, and you gotta you gotta just be ready for the next, losing streak potentially and just be you know, approach everything with that sort of sharp mindset of of, you know, I need to make smart decisions here that are that are based on things and not, you know, because I'm hot right now or anything like that. You know, John, anything, from you in terms of bouncing back? Any advice for the people out there? And I know one other thing I wanna mention quickly too is that the you know, you talked about the doubting things. I know, myself as well could sometimes sort of be like, oh, I'm not gonna bet that anymore, you know, because it lost that time. You know, John, any any do you ever go through that where you're like, you know what? I'm not gonna wager on that anymore because it lost or or it went through a losing streak, and and just stay off of it? Or or what advice do you have for people out there?

GosuThune [00:38:11]:

Yeah. Well, it's you should never not bet something because it lost. I think Pace already touched on that. Right? You you you like that penguins bet. You you maybe don't bet the penguins next time, not because it lost, but because it didn't look like you ever had a chance to win. Like, you bet something where the motivations of the players, the team was clearly not aligned with what you were betting. Right? So that's when you that's when you make that change. But as far as, like, these, you know, bouncing back at least these these stretches, I mean, I like that, you know, you look at that line graph, it's just for this month, and that dip looks really bad.

GosuThune [00:38:43]:

What if you zoomed it out for the last year? You know? You probably wouldn't even really be able to see that dip. Yeah. Right? Like, it's it's become so insignificant that, like, small losing stretch that week compared to 50 weeks of of almost all exclusively winning weeks. Right? It's just that that's really important to just zoom out. You know, I had like, September was my best month ever, and then I had a losing October. Like, when I I rarely ever have a losing month, just period. Right? And it's like, wow. I I could look at it like, man, I need to maybe I just don't have it anymore.

GosuThune [00:39:22]:

But it's like, well, just last month, I I had my best month ever. I was doing the best I've ever done. So, like, zooming out is is super important. And then just growing and remembering when you get your mind when you when you start to become negative and you start to make poor choices, be being more self aware about that and remembering what happened the last time you did that. So last November, I on ironically, last November, I didn't have a I had a bad month. And it it was actually things just kind of that were fluky, like, I'd accidentally added a 0 3 or 4 times, and it they all lost. And so I got tilted, and then I started to and I'd had an incredible year up until that that moment. And so then I started to bet too much on things I shouldn't be betting too much on.

GosuThune [00:40:07]:

And now from having been through that this time around when I had a bad October, I didn't change anything. I didn't chase anything. I didn't do anything different. I just kept staying the course, and I've gotten all of that money back and then some. Right? So it's just a matter of of remembering what happened the last time you were in this spot and what you can do better, and and what didn't go right for you and how to fix that.

Shane Mercer [00:40:32]:

Love it, John. And I think we have a theme here sort of developing November just naturally being perhaps a challenging month. Pace, I know you said November 22 for you is sort of the last real rough one. Now here we are looking back at the November where there was a a rough stretch. Not that the month was was rough in in in its entirety. But, John, you're kinda referencing a a a November as well that was tough for you. And I wonder if maybe just the fact that there's so much going on. Right? We've got so much that sort of ends up rolling in because the hockey season is now in full swing.

Shane Mercer [00:41:03]:

The NBA season is in full swing. Of course, we have NFL. College is is kind of hitting that that sort of crucial time period, of college football I'm referring to. And then, of course, we've got the beginning of college basketball. You know? And it's like, there's just so much going on that maybe it's just, you know, we're we're stretching too thin through the month. I I think that that's something for me anyway speaking for myself. I found myself kind of, you know, getting pulled in so many directions where my way of bouncing back was sort of dialing back in on the things I'm most comfortable with. Anyway Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:41:36]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:41:36]:

But that that's important, Shane. And I think one of the biggest differences. So November 2023 is our single biggest month that we've ever Oh,

Shane Mercer [00:41:42]:

So there you go.

GosuThune [00:41:44]:

And yeah. I told you. It it was fluky. I had multiple I had multiple strange losses that were Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:41:51]:

Right. And and that's kind of the point. It's like everyone's journey is their own and weird shit happens and people do make misclicks and things like that, like, it happens. Right? And and I know I've been on the side of you know, you might have a book where the max bet button is consistently around 500 to $1,000, and you're just always going max bet spin. Just trying to get as much money in as you can. And I've had that happen where I just spun $50,000. And people have witnessed it on stream, and I'm like, fuck. And I'm like, I know I know I'm gonna get over this if this loses, but, gosh, this one's gonna hurt, and then it loses.

Andrew Pace [00:42:27]:

And it can it can derail your day or your month. Right? Just like that. Especially if you have access to the money. I've had it where I've done that, and it didn't spin in because I didn't have access to the money. It wasn't in the book. Right? Like, the max bet's 50, and I had 28 in the book. And I'm like, oh my god. Thank god that didn't go through.

Andrew Pace [00:42:45]:

Right? Actually, it happened to me yesterday with the Commandos, where my max bet was pretty consistently around $500. And I clicked it, and it was not a big deal at all, but I ended up clicking in for about 25100. Like, it was not a big deal at all, but it happened to me yesterday where I was like, I'd already that was kinda just my last little $500 top up, and I was like, okay. I have a little bit more on this than I wanted. It but I I didn't care at all. But it it happens, and shit happens. And I think for me, the fundamental difference between this November November 2022 was November 2022. It was the learning lessons that I went through during that time where when they they poke their ugly head out again this year, I I don't wanna say I was ready for them and I handled them perfectly, but I bounced back way differently.

Andrew Pace [00:43:32]:

And I didn't beat my head against a wall. I really picked my spots, from there on in. And as a and also did did things differently. Right? Like, adapting is is everything in in this business. If you can't adjust to what is what if you can't adjust to what used to work, to what is working now or what isn't working now, you are dead in the water. And I know that has been the Achilles' heel for so many members where they learned something and something was a certain way in a in a year, and it simply is gone. The edge is gone. The angle's gone, and they're still hammering their heads against the wall in a situation that is not gonna yield profits.

Shane Mercer [00:44:15]:

Great advice. Yep. You gotta adjust. Constantly be adjusting. Well, I think now is a good opportunity to, start talking about what adjustments maybe need to be made or maybe not need to be made in the NFL season and in the college football season, let's kick off the gridiron grind time.

Andrew Pace [00:44:35]:

Wow. John's here already.

Shane Mercer [00:44:37]:

And John's here already. There he is. Bang. John, just like that. Ready to go.

Andrew Pace [00:44:41]:

But before we dive into this week, we gotta touch on a couple things from last week.

Shane Mercer [00:44:45]:

There were some there were some crazy stuff from last week.

Andrew Pace [00:44:47]:

There's some insane stuff that obviously a lot of people are talking about, and I think that when we come out of a week like last week and just so everyone knows, I think most of our listeners are our members. But if you're not a member of inplayLIVE or you were a member of inplayLIVE or whatever your journey is with listening to this podcast, we were live all freaking week. Wednesday before Thanksgiving is loaded with sports because Thursday is the NFL day. Right? So every where where Thursday might be a balanced busy day with hockey NBA, they load that all into the Wednesday night. So we're live all Wednesday night, then all day Thursday for the NFL. We have 5 prime time games in in in week 13. Not prime time games, like isolated games with sorry. 6.

Andrew Pace [00:45:33]:

3 on the Thursday, 1 on the Friday, 1 on Sunday night, 1 on Monday night. Right? So and we're live for all of it. So sometimes after a week like this, you know, you're waking up on a Monday, and you just want because we're filming this on Monday. You just wanna just breathe and not even think about betting all day long. Right? And then we have to rehash some of the things or start looking at the next week, which, you know, is is what we do and what we love. But we witnessed something on Thursday that was like nothing we had ever seen before with Matty Berflus and the Chicago Bears. It was quite a drag. Crazy is we we witness it where we're watching it, and everyone's watching us, and we're reacting to the game and what's happening.

Andrew Pace [00:46:13]:

And we're describing oftentimes, like, okay. Well, they should do this now. And then you'll see a really good coach just do it all. But it seems like that is missing in the NFL and in college football to a degree we have never seen before this year. So much so that things that we used to bet on that were our lifeblood in college football, we don't even consider anymore because of the coaching. And we actually saw that with James Franklin. There was a big altercation after the game between Penn State and Maryland where I don't even know the coach's name of Maryland. John, you probably know it.

Andrew Pace [00:46:51]:

It's off the back of your hand. But they go to shake hands, and he kinda physically grabbed James Franklin. And he got mad at him, and he got mad at him

Shane Mercer [00:47:00]:

It was tense, yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:47:01]:

James Franklin run up the score on him, and James Franklin tried to defend it by essentially saying, in college football, we have all these other things that we're playing for aside from the winning that particular game. We have our our kids that are the 3rd and 4th strings that need to learn how to play and learn how to score. And we have, a a committee that is relying on the differential in this game to place us in certain positions, which I just completely and totally call bullshit on. I I think if they won 37 to 7 or 45 to 7, it doesn't matter. But he defended essentially scoring late. And the thing is is that culture ripples across the the league, and and other people will then follow suit. Like, oh, James Franklin, Penn State, 3rd ranked team in the nation, blah blah blah blah blah. We're gonna we're gonna, follow suit with them.

Andrew Pace [00:47:53]:

But, anyways, back to the NFL. To blame Caleb Williams in that spot would make sense to me because he needs to get up on the ball quicker. And if the team had no timeouts, all of the blame would have been shouldered on him. But when he didn't get up on the ball quickly, and then Eberflus didn't take his time out, and then in the media afterwards say, I like the way we handled things there. At that point, we needed to take a shot at the end zone when he could have just simply used a time out and tried, like, a 58 yard field goal to tie the game is absolute insanity, and I think it is beautiful that very quickly it was react it was it was handled and he was fired. I hate firing head coaches. I hate it. I think they need to be given a longer chance, a longer leash, just like with Dan Campbell.

Andrew Pace [00:48:45]:

Imagine firing Dan Campbell after his 1st season because they were losing, but this is sheer stupidity that makes you question why in the fuck anyone would ever be in that position in the NFL or the collegiate level making 1,000,000 of dollars to be that unbelievably stupid in the moment, yes, but arrogant with absolutely zero humility to admit wrongdoing or any faults. It reminded me of a politician, number 1. And number 2, I think that we need to make it a standard where the students of the colleges that their football coaches attend, the statisticians, the mathematics kids, all the guy the the computer scientists, whatever it is, data engineers, the list goes on and on, they need to do projects on football where the coaches attend their presentations on the data of the end of a game, and the coaches should have to pass in order to get their paychecks. It's never gonna happen, but it needs to happen. I am sick and tired of the mass stupidity. And you know what? I'm actually so grateful that I've stopped losing money from it and have started profiting from it. But it shouldn't be the way it is. I had

Shane Mercer [00:50:06]:

to get that off my back. I won't ask you what politician you were referencing there. But all of all of them. All of them. Okay. But fair enough. But, yeah, to go like, to for that game to end and you have a time out in hand, you know, it's like, what? How did you not use that time out? And then at the afterwards to defend and be like, yeah. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:50:25]:

I think, you know, I think we've made the right call. I think we did things the right way. It's like, no. It's like the equivalent of, like, you know, Survivor. And I and we Survivor fans out there. It's like Survivor going home with with an immunity idol in your pocket. You didn't play it. Right? It's like, come on, man.

Shane Mercer [00:50:39]:

You obviously made a mistake. Just say you made a mistake. You know? Anyway, unbelievable. But, you know, glad to hear that, you know, the team there has found a way to profit off of this stupidity.

Andrew Pace [00:50:49]:

Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:50:50]:

Yeah. Alright. John, anything that that stood out from you from the past week that you wanna get off your chest before we kinda start looking ahead?

GosuThune [00:50:59]:

No. I mean, I think that, well, I'd I would just like to say, good riddance for Ryan Day and that joke of a of a program joke of a man, after they just made fun of they they made fun of and mocked Indiana and Kurt Signetti, who's had their best season in forever. And because they just beat them as they should have beat them at home as a as a substantial favorite, as a as more than a touchdown favorite. And then to just lay an egg to their biggest rival who is just terrible this year and to get beat at home was was embarrassing and and a well deserved, embarrassment at that.

Andrew Pace [00:51:38]:

Who's the running back, John, for Ohio State?

GosuThune [00:51:42]:

I'm not I can't I'm not sure off the top of my head.

Andrew Pace [00:51:45]:

So Ohio State

GosuThune [00:51:46]:

Sean Judkins, is that what you're talking about? The Ole Miss transfer?

Andrew Pace [00:51:50]:

It was Trevion Henderson.

GosuThune [00:51:52]:

Oh, okay.

Andrew Pace [00:51:53]:

So Trevion Henderson bust the line and goes down at the one so his team can respectfully Indiana game. Yeah. Ryan Day says he did the right thing, but then you never know what can happen. So they ram it down their throat when they're up. How much were they up?

GosuThune [00:52:13]:

Fake knee. They were up 16 maybe at the time.

Andrew Pace [00:52:17]:

So the game was over. There was, like they could've they could've kneeled out, and they ram it down their throat. So anything can happen. Well, not when you just kneel out and the game ends. He rams it down their throat, same thing as the James Franklin thing we just discussed, then defends the decision. I was so happy to watch him get his ass kicked. He is a fucking moron as well. Like, he he he needs to take his Ohio State's course that I'm referencing of of students who come up with how to handle, the end of game.

Andrew Pace [00:52:46]:

But separately of that, just being a respectful team. Right? Kneel out and go shake hands with your your your your team. You've already won the game. It's over, anyways.

Shane Mercer [00:52:57]:

Yeah.

GosuThune [00:52:58]:

I don't know. All these all of these big 10 teams this year, like, or Oregon did it that, like, that dumb fake field goal, and then they're, like, always doing that cute stuff where they shift at the line. They're up, like, 30, and they're, like, going for 2 on on these teams. Like, it's just I don't know. It's it's just it looks it looks sad to me. It really looks sad, and maybe they'll still win it all. I don't know. I'm not gonna bet on them.

GosuThune [00:53:20]:

I just I don't believe in you know, when you're it's hard to get somewhere if you can't act like you've been there is the way I always say it. Like, it Right. You you gotta you gotta have the mindset that you're a a champion and a winner first, and it's not like we're out here to just have fun while we run it up on this team that's doesn't belong with us. You know?

Andrew Pace [00:53:38]:

And and and would you ever see Nick Saban do that? I've watched Nick Saban kneel out with 3 minutes left when he can't kneel out yet out of respect.

GosuThune [00:53:47]:

Yeah. At the goal line. Yep.

Andrew Pace [00:53:49]:

At the goal line, and he turns the ball over and says we're not gonna score on you again. Do you think Nick Saban in the committee was ever affected by him kneeling out, not scoring there?

Shane Mercer [00:54:00]:

Yeah. Alright, guys. Well, I think you can probably bank on some disrespect, some stupidity in the week ahead. It's gonna happen again. We can probably come back here on Monday and talk more about it.

Shane Mercer [00:54:16]:

You know? But, alright. What do we like in college football for the week coming up here, John?

GosuThune [00:54:23]:

Yeah. So the conference championship week, obviously, for there's there's a lot at stake here for for the teams involved. You know, the seeding, you're looking at trying to get a buy, for some of these teams that are that are playing in these games. Some teams just need to win their games to get in. So what I'll probably do here is just run down the the teams and the rankings. So the college football playoff rankings won't come out till tomorrow, but we'll just look at the AP.

GosuThune [00:54:49]:

Which is a pretty good proxy for that and compare it to what the rankings were last week and talk about who's probably in no matter what, who needs to win to get in, and then the at large hopeful. So if if you look at the AP, and like I said, they've been really good at looking like the playoff rankings this year, from the committee. So I'm just gonna kinda use what they've got because I think it makes sense. So the top 7 teams, Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Tennessee, Ohio State, are probably all in just kind of no matter what. And it can make the case for why that would be. So, you know, if if Penn State lost by a 100 to Oregon, maybe they they fall out. Georgia lost by a 100 to Texas, maybe they fall out.

GosuThune [00:55:28]:

That's I think those scenarios are pretty unlikely. You know, Georgia, it'd be how could Georgia fall behind Alabama if their 3rd loss is in the conference championship? I don't think the committee would punish them for being in that game and then losing that game even if they lost it pretty badly. The the president was kinda there last year, or with TCU when they lost when they have when they were undefeated going into the playoff, that was 2 years ago, going into the play or their conference championship, and they lost to Kansas State. They still put them in. So they they seem to not want to punish teams for losing in the conference championship. You could argue that wasn't the case last year when Georgia didn't get in, because they lost to Alabama. But that was a unique scenario where there were 3 other undefeated teams. That's just so rare that that happens.

GosuThune [00:56:14]:

And in fact, we only have one this year, right, with Oregon. So those 7 teams are are probably in no matter what because 3 of them don't even play again. Notre Dame, Tennessee, Ohio State, and then the other 2, 2 of them are gonna or the other 4, 2 of them are gonna win, 2 of them are gonna lose to that other team. So those teams are probably in. Now after that, you have de facto playoff games in the conference championships. Right? So you have the group of 5 that's gonna be decided by Boise State, UNLV. That game is played on Friday night at Boise. Boise beat UNLV at UNLV earlier in the year.

GosuThune [00:56:49]:

It wasn't a convincing win, but they did outplay them, pretty soundly in that game. I think it's fair to say, they were so they were rarely losing in that game maybe at the beginning and then, controlled it the whole rest of the game. You have Arizona State against Iowa State. I believe that game is being played at, Jerry's World in Dallas, I think. So neutral neutral field game, the winner of that game is in. The loser is out. And then Clemson playing SMU. And this one, I have a little bit of an asterisk.

GosuThune [00:57:21]:

Clemson has to win to get in. SMU probably needs to win, but I think if they lost a very close game and they looked really good and or maybe it's an overtime game or something, I think they can still get in. So they're ranked 8th, in the AP right now. I think they were 9th in the playoff rankings last last week. So there are a couple spots ahead of Alabama. They're one spot ahead of Indiana. It would just be really interesting if they lost a very close competitive game. So I can't I just can't rule them out.

GosuThune [00:57:54]:

And I think the books the the books agree with that. So if you go look at odds to make the playoff, I think SMU is, like, minus 300 or something right now to make the playoff, minus 280 on some of the books that I see. Whereas to just to win that game, they're only, like, minus 140 or minus 150.

Shane Mercer [00:58:10]:

I'm looking at that now, and they they actually opened as underdogs. They were plus 2 and a half underdogs, and the lines moved to, to make them a 2 and a half point favorite now.

GosuThune [00:58:20]:

Yes. Yep. That which is that's that's where I make the line. I make it about minus 2, minus 2 and a half. Right. So I think that's I think that's a correct move. And so then after that, those are there's only 2 spots left. So you have Indiana, and the books are kinda telling me Indiana's in because I can't find a line on Indiana

GosuThune [00:58:39]:

To make the playoff or not make it. So that, to me, tells me that they're in. And then after that, you have Alabama. And I don't think South Carolina is gonna jump Alabama in the in the playoff rankings because Alabama beat them even though I would argue South Carolina losing at the end of the game by 2 at Alabama is more impressive than Alabama winning that game. That's I just think they're probably gonna give credence to Alabama because of the name, the record's the same. Theirs their resume's very similar, strength of record, all that kind of stuff, very, very similar, but Alabama has the win. So I think they'd ed them out. So, basically, Alabama needs SMU to either needs SMU to win or needs SMU to lose convincingly, and then I think they're in.

GosuThune [00:59:20]:

Outside of that, I think everybody else is done. That's pretty much it. So that that SMU Clemson game is is very easily the most important game, that's gonna be played this weekend.

Andrew Pace [00:59:29]:

Oh, no, John. The the Forks is the Sun Devils by far is the most important game.

GosuThune [00:59:32]:

Unless you have a ticket. Some tickets on, that.

Andrew Pace [00:59:36]:

We we had a we had a a night where the Sun Devils were playing, I don't know, at, like, 7:30 Pacific. So, like, 10:30 EST kickoff. And I stayed on, and we won, I think, 3 bets in the first quarter on them, 3 bets in the first half on them, and then we hit some other stuff in the game on them. And then the same thing happened next week. And they're underdogs in both of their matches. Like, they were not projected to be good this year. So we're like, let's, we we took some of our profits from that night, and we're like, let let's throw a little bit on them to to make the the playoffs. So, I have a ticket with them at 40 to 1, for $500.

Andrew Pace [01:00:10]:

It pays out 21,000. Sorry. It pays out 20,500. So I I'm gonna be cheering for Arizona this, this this Saturday, but, really good example there, just to bring up hedging. A lot of people will talk about hedging and tickets, and we even had a guest on here, Shane, you know, who essentially has a service that, you know, you you you can sell your tickets on and people can buy buy them. Right? It's it's important to know as a sports bettor.

Andrew Pace [01:00:38]:

It's important to know as a sports bettor. Right? When it comes to hedging, cashing out, you know, whatever the case may be. The first is the cash out. Right? That costs you as a sports bettor money. Because if you were to just go to that same book, but oftentimes to a different sports book, and buy out the other side of your wager, you're gonna make more money. So if your cash out was a $100, you may have actually gotten a 103 or

Andrew Pace [01:01:07]:

104 dollars had you have hedged out instead of cashed out. But whenever you hedge out, you bought a line that has a VIG to do it. So you paid a price to do it even if you did it without cashing out. Right? So there's an argument to be made to just never hedge out, never cash out. Now I think there's always a time and a place for when it it does make sense to do. And, we do talk about middles a lot at inplayLIVE where we actually will wager on some of them live in real time so we can get, like, a I don't know. We had one yesterday, in the Eagles, Ravens game where we got the Eagles plus 7a half, and then we got the Ravens at minus 6a half when it was 9 nothing. So had the Ravens won by 7, they lost the game.

Andrew Pace [01:01:54]:

We would have won both bets, but we only ate the juice on the middle, that we took in that case. But when it comes to hedging, as an example, just to bring up this Iowa State game, if you could get plus 3 on on Iowa State, if they, as a hedge to a futures ticket, Arizona State could win by 1 point or 2 points where you'd win both bets. Arizona State could win by 3 where you push the plus 3, and you win your futures ticket. But if Iowa State wins the game, then you've hedged in a way that, yes, that line still has vague. It doesn't eliminate what I just said. But I love the upside of a hedge where you can win both bets. I had a buddy who had a a parla. We can all guess who that was.

Shane Mercer [01:02:38]:

It was our chief parlay officer.

Andrew Pace [01:02:40]:

Yeah. You had a parla pay it was $10 pays, like, $8,000, and he just needed the Chiefs to win on on Monday night football. Chiefs are actually down all game. But what I said to him was, the Chiefs were I think the Chiefs were, like, 7a half

Shane Mercer [01:02:55]:

I was gonna say I think they were 7 point favorites that night. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:02:57]:

Yeah. And I was like, you can take plus 3a half where it's an alternate line and you move it in, and you have the upside of of of winning both bets. And and in that case, the the middle the the middle hedge would actually hit. And what I love about that is separately of the other line having vague is that you can make more money from your hedge or parlay than you would have made had you not have done it. And I love I hate hedging where you can't win both bets, and I love it when you can you can land in a little sweet spot to scoop. So that's just something for our listeners to to keep in mind, when it comes to these offers and opportunities. And I know that, like, WagerWire exists because if you're a bettor that did one of these, like, 10 pays a 1000000 type bets, you can't hedge that. So you take you hit the cash out button because that's your only option.

Andrew Pace [01:03:46]:

Right? And the book's charging you such a premium in that spot. So that's why services like that exist. So some whales can come along and buy the other side and turn that into value for themselves, and it's a win win situation. Anyways, I'm super excited for that game. John, aside from praying for more snow, is there anything you like in the NFL?

GosuThune [01:04:10]:

You know, I I was like this last I'll be honest this last week. I I really didn't like that many games. It's kinda getting to that point in the year where you were you question what certain teams are playing for and why they care anymore. Yeah. Sure. You know, we're we're we're officially a a week or 2 into teams being mathematically eliminated even though we know seasons were already over to begin with. I do think I do like their the Lions line is coming down. I would love to get try to get Lions minus 3 at home on a Thursday night against the Packers.

GosuThune [01:04:39]:

I definitely don't want anything over 3, like, minus 3a half. If I could get a 3 at, like, minus 120 and probably play that. I I I have the Packers rated pretty highly, actually. I've been I think they're, like, my 5th or 6th highest power rated team. But, I mean, the Lions at home on a short week, I think, is just such a good spot. I like the Bills on the road at the Rams minus 4, if you can get that. And that number may continue to go down. I think the the Sharp Sharps just can't quit the Rams.

GosuThune [01:05:11]:

I know I like the Rams, but it's they just keep playing with these really good teams, like and they just seem to be unable to compete with the best teams. Like, they we saw them against the Eagles. Right? But they took care of business against the Saints. You know? So it's just kind of how they are. Their their their their floor is their floor is high. Their ceiling is low, I think, as far as this Rams team goes. The, the Browns plus 7, I'm gonna have to take if it gets there again on the road against the Steelers. You just really don't Mike Tomlin is just the greatest underdog coach ever.

GosuThune [01:05:43]:

He's just a terrible coach in terms of covering the spread as a favorite. So just really like to fade him in those in those spots. And then I like the Saints on the road as a favorite against the Giants. They think you can get Saints minus 4a half or less. 5 has actually become a pretty common number. It used to be viewed as the most dead number. It's actually been pretty common this year. It's just as common as 7, if you can believe that.

GosuThune [01:06:08]:

And I think a lot of that has to do with just the going for 2. Yeah. The people people not kicking field goals in range going forward on 4th down. It's like touch touchdowns or nothing. We've seen a lot of missed field goals

Shane Mercer [01:06:18]:

Missed Field goals, missed extra points.

GosuThune [01:06:19]:

Yeah. Missed extra points. You know, the beginning of season, the narrative was nobody field goals are too easy. And then, like, I every week, I lose 3 or 4 bets to a missed field goal. Yeah. So I don't I don't know what anybody's anybody's viewing view on that is now, but it's that's not mine. And then I like the Bucks at home, minus 6a half or less against the Raiders.

GosuThune [01:06:40]:

Raiders season's over. They're literally eliminated, already. The Bucks are really good. So, I think they're they're they're back on a tear. Saints as well, I meant I forgot to mention. With Carr, they've been good. They've played a lot of close games even when they've lost.

GosuThune [01:06:55]:

They had that stretch where he wasn't there. They lost, like, 7 games in a row. I think he would miss 4 or 5 of those games otherwise. Other than that, they've been okay, and they fired the one of the worst coaches in the league. So things can only go up for them. So that's why again, another reason why I like them against the Giants.

Andrew Pace [01:07:07]:

I have a few words about the Saints after their 15 minute drive yesterday for 0 points.

GosuThune [01:07:12]:

Oh, yeah. Yeah. Where they gave themselves no chance to win.

Andrew Pace [01:07:15]:

Yeah. That was that was insanity. Anyways, another another teaser win, from last week, Shane.

Shane Mercer [01:07:22]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:07:23]:

So back in the win column. Right. And just from a teaser standpoint, again, it was one of those weeks where on Monday when we're recording, some of the lines didn't make a lot of sense. And by the time kickoff hit on Sunday, yesterday was a or I shouldn't say yesterday because people are watching this on Wednesday. It was a teaser dream, and I think everything you could have possibly strung together hit. So I I hit a couple of really nice teasers yesterday. So, hopefully, people are using the advice from this, to get some really good wins. But heading back into this week, I really do think based on the lines right now, it's another 2 pick week.

Andrew Pace [01:07:58]:

So I know that that's not as exciting for the people that like the big payouts. John touched on 2 of these games, but, I'm gonna go against them because teasers are totally different than spreads. But, the Bucks and the Steelers, that that 2 pick teaser is a a really nice one, and that's what I'll be on this week as of right now. There's a couple other teaser spots this week that are appealing. Tee Seattle to plus 9. I I did tease Seattle the plus 7, that they were on one of my my tickets this past week, and they went on to win the game. Seattle plus 9 is really interesting. So that is one that you you could add.

Andrew Pace [01:08:36]:

I don't know what it is about the cardinals that keep just making me not bet them on either side of the game. But I keep just throwing up a red flag with them, and I think it's just unbelievable inconsistency from them. It's like Kyler Murray Murray is either an MVP candidate 1 week, or he looks like he shouldn't even be in the league the next week. So that's where I'm just really struggling with them. So I think I'm just gonna officially keep it as as those 2. The other one that is appealing on paper would be the Dolphins, at home. But I don't know. I'm again getting that just a weird vibe, with that division matchup where I'm just gonna pass on that one.

Andrew Pace [01:09:12]:

So, so keeping it to keeping it to those 2.

GosuThune [01:09:15]:

I like I like the dull. I I I have the Steelers written out as a teaser, so I'm gonna try to hit a middle on that game, for sure. I'll definitely have the Steelers teased even though I'm on the I'd be on the Browns plus 7. But I do I do like I I like the Dolphins. It it's they they looked awful in the cold, and now it's gonna be 80 degrees in humid Miami again. So they have an advantage there.

Shane Mercer [01:09:32]:

Yep. Just just to be clear, that that's the Steelers and the Bucks teasing them both down to, like, minus 1

Andrew Pace [01:09:40]:

Minus a half.

Shane Mercer [01:09:41]:

Minus half.

GosuThune [01:09:41]:

Yeah. I like that a lot.

Shane Mercer [01:09:42]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:09:43]:

Yeah. All the ones that I'm referencing are are 6 points. And, yeah, again, there was nothing you could have taken teaser wise last week that that would have lost, I don't think. Right. That made sense based on the things that we talk about. John, there's there's one other thing I wanted to talk about with you for the NFL this season, and that's the Bucks to win the division. Mhmm. Do you see that as an opportunity, or has the opportunity past us because of the the win and loss last week?

GosuThune [01:10:09]:

No. I do I do think it's an opportunity. I think we needed that to actually wanna make that bet because they they they don't have the tie break with the Falcons because the Falcons beat them both times. So they they have to win one more game. Like, they have to be at a full game ahead in the standings. So, like, to me, you're if if if they hadn't won, which they almost didn't, and then the the falcons won, which they should have, they actually doubled the chargers and yards in that game, then you would you would just not want this bet at all because it'd be so hard to make up that ground with the remaining schedules. But I I do like it now. What are what's the best odds you've got out there for that?

Andrew Pace [01:10:46]:

They're they're at plus 120. Before this week, they were at plus 375. So it it really is a massive difference. And and I I have wanted to talk about this, and I've wanted to take them for multiple weeks. But at the same time, I kinda wanted to see them get out of their gauntlet. You know, they had a couple unexpected wins early in the season that they showed us that they can beat anyone and then kinda reality set in with that schedule. But their schedule is a little bit of a cakewalk going forward. And and the Falcons definitely have a couple of tough games.

Andrew Pace [01:11:15]:

The Bucks, they they have one game that I guess they, on paper, they should lose, and that's gonna be against the chargers. But aside from that, I'm looking at them and their path to winning the division being one that seems very realistic. Now if I was getting plus 200 right now, I wouldn't even be discussing this with you. I would have just already bet it. But at plus 120, yeah. I I kinda wanted to get your thoughts.

GosuThune [01:11:39]:

No. I I mean, I I really like it. I, like, I I make them the favorite. I think the I think the fair price right now with no vig is minus 115. That's that's what I that's what I show as a fair price. So I think that plus 120 is a really good, is a really good number.

Andrew Pace [01:11:55]:

Alright. Awesome. And, John, amazing call on the Packers last week. I rarely bet pregame, but, when you did your analysis on the podcast to that, I was like, there's no way I'm not putting somebody

GosuThune [01:12:04]:

It just seemed the like, it was I I I really felt like I'd I really missed, like, a it was like net the Jake Paul thing where it was a gambling opportunity of a lifetime. Is that what Portnoy said? It's like, I felt like that during that game. I was like, why did I not have, like, 5 units on this? It was so obvious, and everybody knew it. And the public's winning. That's just although all the public does is win the last 2 years. So when they're on something heavy like that, it's it just seems to be an auto play.

Andrew Pace [01:12:33]:

And it sound it sounds like fading them is the a similar opportunity this week, and, of course, not 5 units. But if we can get those lines down to 3, that'd that'd be a take that I would definitely support. So awesome stuff.

Shane Mercer [01:12:44]:

There you go. Wisdom of the crowd there. Yeah. You know, follow. I'd take a take a look. Alright. If any of you out there, are interested in placing any wagers based on what you just heard from John and Pace there, the place to do it is Pinnacle Sportsbook. You will get the very best odds, the least amount of VIG.

Shane Mercer [01:13:02]:

And, you know, every time that I go to to place a wager there based on on these conversations, I always find I get the best odds there anyway. So it's like, I don't know why I would place it anywhere else.

Andrew Pace [01:13:12]:

And one one of the things that's nice about that is let's let's say you have minus 110 for, the lions right now at minus 3a half. Right? And, again, we're recording this, at a different time than what the the lines are gonna be when you're listening to it. But you oftentimes will get, like, minus 102 for that minus 3a half. And if you move the line to minus 3, it might be minus 110 for minus 3 there when other books would have that at minus 125.

Shane Mercer [01:13:38]:

Yep.

Andrew Pace [01:13:39]:

So if you are doing this stuff pregame, are they sharp? Yes. They're sharp. But when you have a great opportunity, it's it's about losing less sometimes from a sports betting standpoint and then, of course, winning more. So get the best price and and definitely check out pinnacle.comforward/inplaylive.

Shane Mercer [01:13:55]:

There you go. Alright. Pace, John, sports bettors around the world. Till next week. Keep beating those books. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download, and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts.

Shane Mercer [01:14:09]:

Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below. And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code BEHINDTHELINES.