Episode 91

Welcome [00:00:00]:

You're listening to Behind the Lines, a podcast presented by inplayLIVE and powered by Pinnacle, the number one sports book where winners play and never get limited. Go to pinnacle.com/inplaylive to sign up and get in the game.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:00:16]:

But I but I love I love I love same game parlay. So I I hope, yeah. I mean, I I my my goal is to get other people betting them so that my bets stick out less. Like, I want more people. But I think if more people get into the tennis in game parlay market, even though, you know, I'm sure your listeners are probably pretty smart, and, you know, might steal my edges, the more people in there, the more you are.

Shane Mercer [00:00:49]:

Hello, and welcome to another episode of Behind the Lines powered by Pinnacle and purifying the sports betting industry. I'm your host, Shane Mercer, as always joined by Andrew Pace, founder of inplayLIVE, a community of like minded sports bettors dedicated to long term success. On today's show, yes, we'll do the grid iron grind coming up a little later. We've got an issue with Bookmaker that we'll get into, and we've got Isaac Rose Berman joining us. Isaac is a sports bettor and a sports betting writer with a substat called how gambling works. Isaac, welcome to the show.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:01:20]:

Thank you guys for having me. Happy to be here.

Shane Mercer [00:01:22]:

I really, really excited to have you on. You might be the youngest guest I think we've had on this show. And, you know, I mean, no offense by this, but you're relatively inexperienced sports bettor compared to a lot of the people we've had on the show, over the past year, year and a half or so. How did you get into sports betting? I know you kind of followed a similar path that a lot of more experienced sports bettors follow, which is starting out in poker and then, making a transition into sports. Give me a sense of of how you got into poker and then why you made that shift into sports betting.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:01:57]:

Yeah. I mean, I played poker pretty much my whole life, not at a particularly high level. And then I got to college, started playing with some buddies, and then COVID hit. And I just had a lot more free time, and I started just playing a lot more poker. And when you do something a lot, you get better at it. And when it comes to gambling, that means you start doing it for more and more money. And so I was doing that for a while. And then eventually, I got to a point where, I couldn't make as much as I wanted to in poker, and the lifestyle was particularly draining, but I was still pretty lazy and didn't want a real job.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:02:31]:

So I moved over to sports betting, and, yeah, it's been about a year and a half since then. And, yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:02:39]:

Okay. How do you how do you decide, though, that I don't want a real job? Because you're you're what? You're in your you're in your early to mid twenties. Right? Yeah. How do you how do you say to yourself and and more importantly, how do you say to your parents and your family? You know what? Forget that forget that traditional 9 to 5 life. I'm gonna be a professional sports bettor.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:02:58]:

I mean, I always I never thought this was gonna be something I would do for my entire life, frankly. Okay. It was you know, there are a bunch of things I wanna do, and I'm making enough money to be able to support myself, at least, you know, in the in the interim. Like, I I'm not, you know, making infinite amounts of money, but but do pretty well for myself. And so I was like, I can do this and then not have a real job. If the real job is not gonna pay me more, why should I do it? So, yeah, I think I I was pretty fortunate in that when I graduated. I had, like, a usable bankroll from poker. Not like anything too crazy, but enough that I could basically play stakes where I was earning a solid income.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:03:38]:

And then the same thing worked for sports betting. So just kinda transitioned the bankroll over.

Shane Mercer [00:03:43]:

Right.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:03:43]:

And it was yeah. I mean, it was it was not the most fun at times, but at the beginning. But then if you're, like, pretty good at it, you make more money. I mean.

Shane Mercer [00:03:50]:

Yeah. Yeah. For sure. Okay. So talk to us about what you bet on. I from what I understand is your main focus is tennis.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:03:58]:

Yeah. So these days, I would say tennis is basically the only thing that I kind of originate or that I do myself. But, honestly, these days just do a lot of random stuff, whether it's, like, some combination of top down, just meeting and working with other people who have good bets and they're smarter than you. And so you kind of get to be able to piggyback off them. If you can scratch their back, they can scratch yours. So yeah. I mean, I've I've been betting a lot of NFL recently, and I I kinda find it funny because I I know nothing about the NFL. Like, I I literally know nothing about the sport at all, and there's, you know, something particularly amusing about having, decently large sums of money on something that you're pretty sure you have an edge on, but you also, like, don't really know why.

Shane Mercer [00:04:40]:

Okay. I wanna I wanna stay focused on tennis because I do wanna ask you about your NFL betting in a in a sec. But, what do you do when it comes to tennis? Are you a pregame tennis player? Do you bet live? Is it a combination of both? What what are you what are you doing when it comes to tennis?

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:04:55]:

Honestly, everything. Like, I'm I'm pretty sure I've attacked, like, almost every tennis market there is at least in at some point in some capacity. Live, I really enjoy, but it's just it's a grind for me, and it really tires me out. So I basically only do live for the big tournaments. So if you know anything with the tennis calendar, there's, like, 4 major tournaments, and then there's sort of 9 tournaments that are the level below that. And so I restrict my live betting to basically those just because there's enough matches going on at once that it's really worth my while, and the limits are pretty high. So, I used to grind a lot more live, but it was like, I really just don't wanna be watching tennis 10 hours a day, especially if I can't even bet that much on these matches. And then so now it's mainly live for the big tournaments and then pregame for most tournaments as well, depending on the the size of the tournament, frankly.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:05:46]:

Like, the smaller the tournament, sometimes it I just can't really be bothered or there's, like, weird things that are happening. But for all the big tournaments, definitely. Sorry. That was a bit scattered all over the place.

Shane Mercer [00:05:55]:

No. No. That that's fine. I'm curious as to, like, are are you a tennis player? Like like, are you just a big tennis fan?

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:06:00]:

Yeah. I've been a I've been a really big tennis fan my whole life.

Shane Mercer [00:06:02]:

Okay. Right. Because it's a it's sort of a a sport that's like you know, when people decide to become a professional sports bettor, you know, they tend to focus on on, like, the big North American sports. Right? Yeah. No. No. Or not not tennis, but I'm curious as to why you got into tennis.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:06:14]:

I and I I think I mean, I frankly think I was incredibly lucky for that. Like, I I can't really I don't know much. Like like you said, I mean, I haven't been doing this for that long, but I but I really think in the last couple years in particular and maybe still to this day, there's a particular advantage of being a tennis bettor in the north in the, North Americas or at least in in the US just because I think the market is relatively fresh, and there aren't a lot of people as many people who do it as there are in Europe, and so there are a lot more inefficiencies. And I think had I been a fan of another sport and gone into, you know, NBA or NFL, maybe I would have found edges there. I don't know. But, maybe maybe I wouldn't have. And I think I part of the reason I've been able to do so in tennis is just it's just luck. You know? Look where other people aren't looking.

Shane Mercer [00:06:59]:

No. That that that makes a lot of sense, to sort of target a market that that you think is inefficient that, you know, can can be exploited. You know, since you said you're doing a lot of a pregame tennis betting, are you looking at mainly, like, money lines, or are you are you sort of diving into some of those, smaller markets?

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:07:17]:

Yeah. I mean, pretty much everything. I love I love smaller markets. They're just, more enjoyable for me. Obviously, you can generally find higher edges. The liquidity can be a concern, but, I would say my sort of sweet spot is the smaller markets that are, like, still kind of reasonable. You know, stuff like, set spreads, game spreads, maybe set scores, you know, like, let's say player a to win 2 to 1 in sets. Right? Something like that.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:07:47]:

And, you know, totals. But, anything anything below that, I really enjoy it, but especially a lot of these sites. If they're not really gonna let you bet anything on it, and it's probably gonna get your account kind of flagged, that's, like, why why would you waste your time? So it's really just a question of the liquidity of the different markets, which frankly switches, all the time.

Shane Mercer [00:08:04]:

Yeah. Do you have any books that that you particularly like for tennis betting? Like, you know, do you dial in anything in particular? I don't know.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:08:12]:

I don't know if I've read any books on tennis betting in particular.

Shane Mercer [00:08:15]:

Oh, sorry. I meant sportsbooks.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:08:17]:

Oh, oh, sorry. Oh my god. I don't know. Crazy. Yeah. So I'm sorry. I don't know. Yeah.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:08:25]:

I mean, I would say pretty much all of the US major books have, like, at least certain markets that I like to attack on them. And I think, you know, I'm I'm assuming this is true for other sports frankly. I'm just not really familiar with the markets enough to be able to say. But, like, there are just things that are generally gonna be priced, better on certain books, like certain markets that just stay that way over time in general. So it doesn't mean that there's always really good bets. Right? But maybe, you know, it's not a coincidence that if you want the best odds for, let's say, once again, use the same example, a certain player to win 2 sets to the to 1, that's very often gonna be on a certain book. So, yeah, I I I would say, honestly, all of the major books, in in at least where I am in New York Right. Have something to offer.

Andrew Pace [00:09:08]:

Yeah. Well, when you talk about books themselves and you're like, I haven't really read a book like that, I'm thinking.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:09:12]:

I don't know. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:09:14]:

Guess what, Isaac? You can you can be the 1st to write one that that's worth reading.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:09:18]:

Sorry. Yeah. No. It's, it's it's been a long day.

Andrew Pace [00:09:21]:

It's okay. Man. It's okay. Yeah. No. I'm saying it's an opportunity. You can, Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:09:26]:

You can write beating tennis.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:09:28]:

No. I will. Actually, I will I will plug something I wrote, which is I wrote a how to bet on tennis guide for unabated, actually, which Oh, cool. Was my attempt to do that and honestly was was pretty long. It took me a really long time, and, I I think it's pretty good. So if people are interested in, learning a little bit about tennis betting, I would highly recommend that.

Shane Mercer [00:09:48]:

Cool. Yeah. But I encourage people to to go check that out. Okay. I gotta ask, though, because I'm not I don't follow a lot of tennis myself. Yeah. No. But, Pace, I know you follow it a little bit more, and we've got some people in our in our community that it can get really dialed into it when it when it's when it's in season.

Shane Mercer [00:10:03]:

But as far as I know right now, it's very much not in season. What are you betting on these days, Isaac? Or are you betting at all? Do you kinda just take a break when it when it comes to this sort of, off tennis season time?

Andrew Pace [00:10:15]:

Yeah.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:10:15]:

I mean, so tennis is a really long season. So it honest it actually, like, just started back up again. I mean, it was, like, about a month break. There's so many tournaments all year round. And that's what I was saying before. You know? I I don't do a lot of the smaller tournaments anyway just because I I I I find it I find it too exhausting. I need to take breaks. The last month or so, like I said, I've I've been betting a lot of NFL and NBA, which I which I find sort of, interesting because I just don't really know much about them about the sport.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:10:42]:

Whereas, you know, when I'm when I'm placing bets on tennis, it's, oh oh, sorry. Okay.

Shane Mercer [00:10:48]:

Well, so since you brought it up, I figured, hey. Let let's let's go check it out because I saw you bought this. You were we're talking about NFL. Yeah. You you you this was you posted this just this weekend. Right?

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:10:57]:

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's funny. No. This was this was I mean, this is, like, kind of a joke post. Like, I just, I I thought I I was I was looking because I was actually curious, like, not even for any of my own bets, but I was looking into how, obviously, this year, the Chiefs have had all of these sort of ridiculous wins. Right? Where, like, it just comes down right to the end and somehow it happens.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:11:17]:

And so I was curious if there was consistency between all of the different books on how they priced those outcomes. So I was just combining all of the odds on the different sportsbooks for different teams' money lines and the opposing team spread, just because I was I was curious if there's any variation there. And then I happen to be doing it on FanDuel, and, my inner demons got the better of me, and I just, I just sent it.

Shane Mercer [00:11:41]:

Okay. For for everybody out there who's on.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:11:43]:

I don't think this was I don't think this was plus EV to be clear. Oh, okay.

Shane Mercer [00:11:47]:

Fair fair enough. And you've already made it clear that that, you know, NFL isn't necessarily your thing. But, just for everybody out there who's who's listening and not watching, we pulled up a post on Twitter, from Isaac's Twitter at round robin 42. And, this is the same game parlay that he posted, over over the weekend here that that just passed. So this was the Kansas City Cleveland Browns, game. He's got the Kansas City Chiefs money line parlayed with the Cleveland Brown's first half winner, along with an alternate spread for the Browns at plus 3a half and a Patrick Mahomes anytime TD, paying plus 12,643. He's got a $250 wager on this paying out $31,858.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:12:31]:

It's a banger. Yeah. I thought I I like it. So I I'll I'll say, like, honestly, this wager to me, it, like, is everything that I think, you know, modern sports betting can be. Like, I love same game parlays. You know? I'm I'm a huge fan. And to be able to make creative bets like this, you know, even if even if they're minus EV, it honestly like, as a sports bettor, just it just it brings a smile on my face.

Shane Mercer [00:12:59]:

I I enjoyed having a look at it in pace. This is something that I think, you've brought up a few times here on the show over the last little bit with the with these sort of, same game parlays that that are maybe, correlated in some ways, but perhaps also even, like, anticorrelated in in a way. Right?

Andrew Pace [00:13:16]:

Yeah. I'd describe it as, like, what appears to not be correlated when it in fact is. And I I brought this brought a smile to my face right away. I hadn't seen this before we recorded, and I know it's lost, obviously. Yeah. But I look at it, and I'm like, I see the angle here. I like it.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:13:33]:

Yeah. And I don't like it a lot. Yeah. Like, I'm not I'm not one to, like, post winning tickets. I I just think I think it's kind of funny. And, yeah, obviously, you know, like, I'm not telling people they should bet this because I think it's Plus EV, but yeah. Right. That's really fun.

Shane Mercer [00:13:49]:

You you you have another one in here too, and I love that this one is kind of, like, in reply to Plus EV Analytics who, we've we've had, some other, people on the show. I know that's Matt, but we've had one of the people he works with on the show who's now part of American Bettors Voices. And, you know, Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline, Cleveland Brown spread plus 4 and a half, and this one paying 5.4. And I love that you replied to him and say free money.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:14:15]:

Yeah. What was his original tweet again?

Shane Mercer [00:14:16]:

I'd have to, let's have a look here. I clicked that open.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:14:24]:

Oh, I remember.

Shane Mercer [00:14:26]:

Denver is favored by more than KC on the spread, but by less than KC on the money line.

Andrew Pace [00:14:32]:

That's crazy.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:14:34]:

Ya It was it was Plus EV who inspired me to do this. I'm I'm a big I'm a big Matt fan. I think I think he's great. But I had thought yeah. So, basically, I'd thought about this for a while. I was like, you know, is there actually anything to this trend of Kansas City, like, winning these super close games? And then I saw Matt's tweet, and I was like, you know what? Like, let's test out all of the, you know, spread money line combos here and see if there's any variation between sites because, you know, obviously, if you can find some variation, maybe there's, something to work with.

Shane Mercer [00:15:03]:

Smart. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And I love it, and then, you know, it looks like you're you're having fun on on social media with it and and having a good time with it.

Andrew Pace [00:15:12]:

I find it funny that you talked about not betting on the NFL, not knowing anything about it. We bring up your Twitter. There's these NFL bets. And and then, basically, you said that you got into tennis because it was the sport that you knew, and here you are posting these NFL slips.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:15:26]:

I don't post them I don't post them that often. It's just yeah. I mean, like I said, I I'm not a big NFL fan, but, just been watching a lot this year, frankly, because because I'm betting a lot on it, and it's, it's an incredible sport. And I know it's, like, crazy to a lot of people. Like, how do you not follow the NFL? Like, all of my friends who are non bettors know way more about football than me. Right. But, yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:15:49]:

It's it's part of the journey of betting, to be honest with you. And, like, where you start isn't necessarily where you're gonna end up. In in my opinion, you know, there's a lot of different ways to make money from some of those derivative markets that you referenced. And there might be a time where you fast forward, and you're not betting them at all anymore even though the edge is still there. Right? And and a part of that is just like, you know, your individual journey as a bettor and basically being taken where, you know, you can get money down where there is better liquidity. And, I mean, tennis tends especially the majors. Sometimes when you click that bet max button, I'm just like, holy That's good stuff.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:16:28]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:16:30]:

Right? So tennis is definitely a big sport with a a lot of opportunities for sure, but, of course, so is the NFL. So that's where, you know, your money can be dragged. I remember for from my from my standpoint, like, I bet a lot on college football when I kind of first started making bets that profited me money. And I just, you know, dove into Sunday thinking to myself, you know, gee. It's still football. I'm just gonna do all the same things I did on Saturday, and there was this pattern. I I I wanna say it lasted 3 or 4 weeks at most, but that might be my naive way of of looking at it. But, essentially, would make all this money on Saturday and lose it all back on Sunday trying to do the exact same thing with, NFL that I was doing with college football.

Andrew Pace [00:17:16]:

And that's where, you know, obviously, you know, you can keep losing, but people that look at sports the way that we do tend to adapt and adjust. And all of a sudden, when you're like, oh, gee. This is working in the NFL, and I'm able to get this kind of money down, compared to what you can with some of these college football games, especially the ones that aren't, like, you know, the the big power 5 or now power 4 schools. You know, that that's that's kind of the trend that happens. So, you know, where where your journey goes from here, I think tennis will probably be in your roots for forever, but at the same time, you might learn a lot more about football than

Andrew Pace [00:17:55]:

You might end up learning quite a bit about football.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:17:56]:

This is this is gonna sound this is gonna sound sick, but I actually kind of try not to learn. And I think part of it is I'm a huge tennis fan. I've been a huge tennis fan my whole life. And betting has made that a lot worse in a lot of ways for tennis. Like, it's very hard for me to just enjoy a tennis match in the way that I used to, both from a betting side and also just from watching so much. And I kind of still have that wonder about football. And there's something about watching a sport that you, like, just don't really get, that I don't know. I I just I find something, like, sort of sweetly innocent about it.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:18:32]:

It might sound ridiculous, but

Andrew Pace [00:18:34]:

There's there's a lot more to that, though, than what meets the eye. There's the the standpoint of this is what you love. This is what you're good at. And those other bets that you might be taking relating to football where you don't know as much about it and maybe enjoy it as much is you putting your faith in professionals that do know that area so that you can in turn be be that for them in in in areas that you're an expert at. And it's it's it's a really good lesson for everyone. Right? Like, the the more that you can be hyper specialized in any field, any practice, it allows you to really become an expert in that area. And you don't have to be. You don't have to be good at everything.

Andrew Pace [00:19:15]:

You don't have to be the best at everything. Let other people do that for you.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:19:18]:

No. That's that's exactly right. I mean, I think a a much better way of putting what I'm what I was trying to say is not that I like not knowing anything, but I don't wanna be, like, you know, in the middle of the distribution. Right? Like, there's there's no I don't gain much in my opinion from going, like, an unknowledgeable NFL bettor to, like, a pretty knowledgeable NFL bettor or watcher. Like, that's just a lot of work, and, I'm not gonna make money or, like, do good things by being, you know, like, 70th percentile. And I'm already so far behind that it's like, why would I waste all my time getting there when I could focus on things that I'm actually a lot better at already?

Andrew Pace [00:19:55]:

Yeah. For sure. It's interesting too about that whole chief's discussion on the money line because I find that fascinating where you have a larger favorite paying less on the money line due to variance than a shorter favorite paying sorry. Longer favorite paying more, shorter pay favorite paying less. That's fascinating. And it makes perfect sense as to why the sports folks would do that too because I would presume Kansas City is gonna get a lot more money line parlay action than Denver would have. And that's part of that is smart, and part of it is them pricing pricing it in a way that, you know, I would say is more more more advantageous to them given given the amount that they'd be put on, you know, that next leg of everyone's parlay that's out there. So that's really cool.

Andrew Pace [00:20:45]:

That's and and I think for anyone listening, like, if you are doing this type of thing, look for those sort of discrepancies because, a lot of, there's a lot of information in those numbers for sure.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:20:57]:

Yeah. No. And, I mean, I think yeah. I I love I love same game parlays not just because I think that they're sort of cool bets, but I think you can find really great edges in there. And, you know, what you've just outlined is is one of the ways that you start going about that. Right? Like, you think about things that are, correlated, but maybe there are certain instances where they're correlated in a different way or to different degrees, and you try to isolate those instances and find those sort of tail outcomes. And that's when you can, make some really fun, really profitable same game parlays.

Andrew Pace [00:21:27]:

Yep. So something we've talked about quite a bit recently is, like, expected growth versus expected value. Now when you have a longer odds on a same game parlay, obviously, your expected growth is gonna be less, but your expected value can be higher. I'm not gonna say it is higher. I'm gonna say it can be higher. So let's let's go back to tennis. Are you building same game parleys with tennis?

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:21:49]:

Yes. But it's an underdeveloped product. Okay. So I love same game parleys for tennis. Like, it is my favorite thing, but the markets just aren't really there yet. DraftKings and FanDuel and Caesars offer them, and maybe 1 or 2 others that I'm forgetting, but a lot of books don't offer them. The options are relatively limited. The limits are, like, decent, but not great.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:22:16]:

So, it's not as good. And in particular, if you think about how tennis is structured outside of grand slams where the, matches are 3 out of 5 sets, the 2 out of 3 set format doesn't really lend itself well to an SGP, I don't think, just because the match is too short. Whereas in the longer matches, there's more customizability, because they're longer. So it's, like, really only during these grand slams when you can kind of or when I'm really looking at them, and then they've only been out for, you know, 1 or 2 grand slams at this point. So literally every grand slam, the the market dynamics are changing there, and that really excites me. So, yeah, not what I'm working on right now because by definition, I can't do it until the odds are released, which is, like, a day or 2 before the tournament. But, yeah, like, I can assure you in the 2 to 4 days before the Australian Open in January, when the odds have come out, but the matches haven't started, all I'm going to be doing is same game parlors. I just don't understand.

Andrew Pace [00:23:15]:

You know what's interesting is I'm thinking to the way I've watched sportsbooks change from regulation pre regulation to post regulation. And then I might be describing something that you might not have as much experience with as as I do myself, and certainly some of the people that you're involved with would have more experience than than me personally. But I look at, like, a bet 365, you know, that's been around since out of the UK.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:23:38]:

Another one with tennis with tennis same game parlays. Yeah. I just don't use as much as I'm in New York, not New Jersey.

Andrew Pace [00:23:43]:

Right. Right. So they didn't have same game parleys before regulation, and they were kind of the king of, I would say, derivative markets. You know, basically, having anything you could think of, that you wanted to bet was available at Bet 365 versus a lot of their competitors, you know, the William Hills and things like that that you know, they they have markets that that you can bet on, but nothing like what Bet 365 had. And then you see FanDuel DraftKings pop up and what they're doing with their product. And all of a sudden, Bet 365 is like, holy shit. We gotta we gotta compete with these guys. We gotta we gotta step it up.

Andrew Pace [00:24:18]:

And what I noticed in that process is, to a certain degree, using the same odds providers for specific markets. So I'll give you an example of that. Bet365 used to have their own drive props, what are called flash bets for the NFL. They had their own markets, their own handicapping, their own system. Once regulation occurred, they mirrored DraftKings and SB Tech 100%. So the only change you would see is potentially different juice being charged, but we're talking about, you know, a few cents here and there. And and you do see a lot of sportsbooks do that. Like, Camby being a really good example, the odds provider where they'll have one one sportsbook that's that's offering, one set of lines and then another one that is identical.

Andrew Pace [00:25:12]:

They're still through the same odds provider, but they just say, hey. We wanna charge a little bit more juice to our customers. So can you nerf our numbers, you know, to a certain degree? Right? Well, I think about tennis, and I go, okay. Where is tennis bet the most? Where has it been biggest, you know, over these years? And I that points me to bet 365 as being the sports book that would have sort of the most derivatives and the most, I would say, the most options. Historically, I I don't bet tennis enough to know whether that's the case today. But I go, when will tennis catch up the way football has, giving us all these options and and opportunities to bet on? Because that that's exciting. Right? Especially, you know, I I used to think about this stuff for football when when legalization was rolling out. I'm like, guys, this is just the beginning.

Andrew Pace [00:25:57]:

We're gonna get all these crazy markets and ways to make money and, you know, that I I would think that tennis would need to follow suit to an extent.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:26:04]:

So I agree with you, but I'll I'll cut the book some slack here. I think it's just a less not a less nuanced game, but there's less options. Right? Like, in football, you have 11 different players. You can do all of these different player props. Props. There's all of these different options. Like tennis, you kind of just have the score. Right? Because there's no, you know, like, you can't do there's no passing yards in tennis.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:26:29]:

Right? Like, you either win a game or you lose a game. So, necessarily, it's less interesting, I think. There's less options from a same game parlay standpoint. But but that doesn't mean that you can't do some cool customizable stuff. Right? Like, I think, shout out to, like, FanDuel here. I think it's probably the best where you'll have things like, you know, the score of the first game, how many aces, like, all of these things, which are which are cool and interesting. But, fundamentally, it's just way it's a way smaller, like, surface area than something like football or basketball.

Andrew Pace [00:27:00]:

Right. That makes total sense.

Shane Mercer [00:27:02]:

Yeah.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:27:03]:

But I but I love I love I love sand game parlay. So I I hope, yeah. I mean, I I my my goal is to get other people betting them so that my bets stick out less. Like, I want more people but I think if more people get into the tennis in game parlay market, even though, you know, I'm sure your listeners are probably pretty smart, and, you know, might steal my edges, the more people in there, the merrier. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:27:24]:

Right. Right. Abs and I gotta ask you about that. Since you're doing these pre pregame, SGPs and you're you're mainly focused on pregame, do you find that your books have have, you know, nice leashes, like, long enough leashes that you can actually, you know, make make some money before they cook you?

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:27:40]:

Yeah. It depends what you're betting. But, I mean, I would say I think that's true for SGPs in most sports. Yeah. Like, not even like, I don't know. You know? I think at least in sort of the current landscape, SGP edges are are prized for that very reason. Right? Like, the idea of winning in an SGP, when the book thinks that it's not a good bet, when the, perceived hold is much higher, you know, that's really what what people want. So yeah.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:28:08]:

I mean, I I think I've definitely had better luck with tennis SGP's and other stuff, and I think that's pretty much true for all sports.

Shane Mercer [00:28:14]:

Yeah. So so you're getting a decent leash. You're not you're not cooking books too quickly.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:28:19]:

No. No. I don't think so. And I think also the nature depending on how what you're betting. If you're betting things with particularly long odds, that's kind of beneficial. Right? You know, if you're betting, if you have a really big edge on something and the odds are I remember I first read about this concept in, the logic of sports betting by Ed Miller and Matthew Davideau. But the idea where if you have a really big edge and you're betting plus 100, it's very obvious to the sports book that you're winning. They don't need that large of a sample.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:28:44]:

But if you're betting things that are plus 5,000 and they should be plus 2,000, you still have a massive edge. But because there's so much variance, it's a lot harder for the book to be able to perceive that you're winning a lot. And all you need to do is, you know, hit a few of those, and then you're kinda happy.

Shane Mercer [00:29:00]:

Right. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:29:02]:

Yeah. It's it's a really good point. And and to that same point where you're like, oh, I I want people doing this so that, you know, I blend in. They are. It's it's, there there was just something released from I think it was FanDuel where their revenue now is just it's just overwhelmingly same game parlay.

Andrew Pace [00:29:23]:

So if you get thrown in that same bucket, it's it's crazy. The other the other point is the popularity and profitability of these markets to the sportsbook is something that I don't think offshore books are going to be able to ignore anymore, where I hope we're gonna start seeing more competitive gray market books giving players these types of options. We've already seen it, with a couple, but oftentimes, the product is just so inferior compared to the regulated books. And and I hope that that change does come through the pipeline. I know in the States, like, you guys are really in a position right now where they're just really trying to crack down on on the gray market stuff. But at the end of the day, they're they're as a professional sports bettor, you know, you look at the journey of people that have come before us, and, like, they just have moved entirely.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:30:17]:

Oh, a 100%.

Andrew Pace [00:30:19]:

Like in Jamaica you know? So so, you know, could you see yourself on a on an island, you know, 10 years, 15 years from today, you know, living in the sun while betting on sports, offshore same game parlays? I'm not I'm not saying you specifically, but, like, that that image, that thought, you know, you go, hey. You do what you gotta do to go where the edge is.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:30:39]:

Yeah. No. I mean, I I agree. It is it is interesting. You know? It's it's such an incredible product that really has just reshaped the entire industry, both because of its profitability and its popularity. It's pretty incredible. Yep. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:30:56]:

You know, curious. You you've mentioned, you know, earlier that that, you know, you work with some people and and, you know, you do you do some networking, that kind of thing. Are you part of a group, or do you do you mostly operate on your own?

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:31:07]:

Yeah. I mean, I basically operate on my own, but then you just make connections with lots of different people, like, deal with people individually. I don't have like, I don't I don't have anybody know who I, like, automatically share my bets with or anything like that.

Shane Mercer [00:31:17]:

Right. Right. And you're not, like, selling picks or anything like that?

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:31:20]:

No. No. No.

Shane Mercer [00:31:22]:

Right. Cool. But you are, trying to make some money as a writer and as a journalist, which is near and dear to my heart as a as a fellow journalist. You you are out there writing.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:31:31]:

Not the case at all. There's no money in journalism.

Shane Mercer [00:31:34]:

That's that's a fact.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:31:35]:

That is a fact. I was I was trying to if I was trying to make money, I would not spend any time writing at all. Honestly, like, if you think about, like, I'm such a slow writer. The opportunity cost of new writing, it costs me way too much money. Yeah. But, yeah, I do it because I I enjoy it.

Shane Mercer [00:31:51]:

Yeah. The the time ROI is terrible at journalism.

Andrew Pace [00:31:54]:

Have you have you experimented with AI writing where then you put your touch on it?

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:31:59]:

Yeah. Like, sort of, but I don't know. I'm just the idea of publishing something that people will actually read with my name on it, like, I just go so crazy about making sure every little thing is perfect. I just end up spending way too much time writing and rewriting. And then by, like, the 5th time I've read it, I'm like, is this even good? Because I've read it so many times. Right. And and then it's like, oh, am I gonna focus on this, or am I gonna go actually try to make some money betting? And it's like

Andrew Pace [00:32:25]:

You're like, I could've just made I could've just made 50 SGP's. What the hell am I doing right now? Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:32:31]:

So so then tell me why you are writing. What why are you in it? What are you hoping to gain? And and I guess, you know, what's what's driving you to to cover the industry the way you are?

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:32:42]:

I mean, first of all, it's it's interesting to me. I think it's important, and I do I do enjoy it. Like, the the process is hard, but I I like being able to put out content that I'm happy with and that I think is adding value. I mean, the main reason I started was because I was frustrated with sort of the existing state of content, and that there didn't seem to me to be much overlap between people who were writing about the industry kind of from a regulatory and policy standpoint and people who actually had real experiences within the industry itself. And so I would look at, you know, the people who are writing in, like, major publications about sports betting policy, and I'm like, you don't even bet on sports. You don't know what you're talking about. And that's not just from, you know, a sharp perspective where I think that I have leverage or that I'm better than them because I win. It's really just a familiarity with the product.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:33:33]:

And so that's sort of what what drives me is just to to sort of try to add some value there. And also I I think I'm, you know, pretty good at it. Like, when I when I do try, and and really apply myself there and, you know, I wanna be the best at what I do. And I don't think I'm ever gonna be the best, sports bettor. But if I can be, you know, one of the best when it comes to being a sports betting journalist, however small that niche is, I I wanna try it.

Shane Mercer [00:33:57]:

Hey. Kudos to you for for entering the space that way. And I think you're I think you've nailed something there in the sense that, you know, there's a lot of people out there that that are covering it. They're writing about it. They're engaged with it, but they actually fundamentally don't understand it. And one of those one of those areas, which is probably the most concerning that we brought up here on the show, a few times with with other guests, is the fact that regulators tend not to understand the space. And I think you're discovering that too. Am I right?

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:34:23]:

Very, very much so. There's something I I would I would like to say. I'm currently in a dispute with a regulator, and I'm I'm working on a a piece about it. So I can't say anything, but, I'll I'll I'll message you guys probably in a few months after I get back from vacation about a very interesting thing that I'm that I'm doing right now. I'm sorry. I'm sorry for the sorry for being vague. I just I I don't wanna out myself with a a dispute with the regulator that's ongoing.

Andrew Pace [00:34:46]:

We get it. We get it.

Shane Mercer [00:34:47]:

Yeah. Yeah. Look look forward to hearing the story, though, on the other side.

Andrew Pace [00:34:50]:

Yeah. Yeah. We get it, and our listeners get it. And I think many of us, unfortunately, have been there. So we would love to hear about it, but, let's see what it's all about.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:35:00]:

Ya all I'll say is this, you know, I I've had my fair share of run ins with regulators. I think there's a particular type of interaction that Sharp customers are used to, where, you know, you you do something to a book that they don't like and they don't wanna pay you your money. And I've I've had enough of those instances, and, I've recently had some optimism with with fixing them. And I'm I'm hopeful to be able to change that, space for other bettors in the future for the better. I said better a lot of times there, but I hope that made sense.

Andrew Pace [00:35:30]:

Hey. Better bettors is a thing. So, Isaac, from that standpoint,

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:35:34]:

I think yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:35:36]:

Yeah. Isaac, I think from that standpoint, anything that we can do to help, it's we're we're there a 100%. So if it's simply sharing an article.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:35:46]:

Appreciate that.

Andrew Pace [00:35:47]:

Yeah. We'll do it. Our community will do it, and it's yeah. It helps everybody for sure.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:35:52]:

Yeah. No. And then in the next in the next couple months, you'll you'll see some stuff. Yeah. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:35:55]:

Cool.

Andrew Pace [00:35:57]:

Looking forward to it.

Shane Mercer [00:35:57]:

On this topic, though, PACE, you've got something that that's popped up for one one of our members, though, has had an issue with, Bookmaker, right, and their casino and and an issue with getting paid. Right, PACE?

Andrew Pace [00:36:09]:

Yeah. So, I mean, the the bookmaker is kind of renowned as, like, the largest standing or second largest standing, we don't limit winners casino sportsbook in the world. Not to mention, like, you know, the the one that I would refer to as the largest, which obviously sponsors this podcast, Pinnacle, you can't use them in the United States technically. And I guess, technically, you shouldn't use Bookmaker in the United States. But, again, that's a sports book that does operate in the United States. You can get an account from there. Yeah. And, like, I don't know.

Andrew Pace [00:36:48]:

We've heard some stories lately that really point to them not being as reputable as they should be. And any sports book that's licensed in Costa Rica basically has free reign as to what they wanna do and how they wanna treat their players. So in this particular example, this player went to, their online casino, which is something that I generally don't recommend, and he happened to win $33,000. He was pretty pumped on it. I mean, who wouldn't be winning $33? I don't care who you are. That's that's a pretty crazy win, especially in the casino. Not not some SGP here on on Chiefs Mahomes and and Brown's Plus. Right? But woke up.

Andrew Pace [00:37:32]:

They took the money away. 0 explanation and, you know, has filed complaints to the various places that you would file complaints to. And, Bookmaker has not responded. And the and I don't mean response is currently pending. I'm talking case closed. They're not responding. So

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:37:52]:

Did he have a screen like, did he have, like, screenshots of it in his account or whatever?

Andrew Pace [00:37:57]:

Oh he's got he has access to the account right now. So they returned his deposit.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:38:00]:

Is there there's a back transaction of them taking the money?

Andrew Pace [00:38:04]:

Yeah. Yeah. It shows it in the account. Yeah. Minus 33,000.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:38:08]:

No justification no justification given?

Andrew Pace [00:38:12]:

Zero. No justification. No response. Just complete and total utter bullshit.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:38:18]:

Was he a new user, or had he been there for a while?

Andrew Pace [00:38:21]:

New user. New user. Yeah.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:38:23]:

First first time deposit thing? How much was the initial deposit?

Andrew Pace [00:38:28]:

Large sum. 25,000.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:38:30]:

So you deposited 25K, should have withdrawn 33 or should have withdrawn 57?

Andrew Pace [00:38:36]:

57.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:38:37]:

Wow. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, my my first my my my first thought there, like, not not that this is a legitimate excuse or but, like, it would be something to do with, like, AML purposes and the source of funds, which made them refunded. I'm not I'm not saying like, it doesn't it sounds like the guy got screwed over, but I'm saying my my expectation would be if they did that, that's what they would cite. But the fact that they haven't even cited that is kind of crazy, and they just closed the case. Wild.

Andrew Pace [00:39:05]:

Yeah. But I think that, you know, when you you talk about playing in the gray market offshore, we posted some stuff before, by the way, and the comments below are hilarious. It's like, why wouldn't you just play it FanDuel? And it's like, yes. Sure. You know? First of all, I don't have that

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:39:17]:

I love I love that. Like, you're kind of outing yourself there. It's pretty funny.

Shane Mercer [00:39:20]:

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's totally outing yourself.

Andrew Pace [00:39:24]:

Mind you, I mean, FanDuel, I mean, I gotta give them props because they still allow you to place a certain amount of money even once you're clipped, which is nice.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:39:31]:

FanDuel Daniel deserves a lot of respect for that and for posting limits, as I think the only or one of the only US books that does that.

Andrew Pace [00:39:39]:

Right.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:39:40]:

Yeah. Really, really big. They they deserve a lot of credit for that.

Andrew Pace [00:39:43]:

Yeah. Big time. And and, you know, from my standpoint, no issues getting paid, whatever. Yeah. Separately of this issue, though, we've had these scenarios with Book Maker that have come up where, they voided some bets. They've done this thing where they spin you in, and it's very clearly at a certain price. And what's on the bet slip is completely different. And there's some patterns of things where I go like, jeez.

Andrew Pace [00:40:07]:

Did they not hit a quota, or did something just happen where they just kinda go, hey. You know, we do have full power over our users given our license that we are able to do this kind of stuff. And I think that if you are a sports bettor casino user, whatever, there's a process that you can take before you register for any sportsbook that must be taken. And the thing is is BookMaker would pass all of those these things except one. But you go down. You see who their license is. You you check them out online prior to see what kind of feedback is listed about them. Places like Casino Guru are are great for for looking at, the reputability of of that sportsbook.

Andrew Pace [00:40:52]:

Now let's say that you check the boxes there. You know, they're they're reputable, all that kind of stuff. If their licensing is in Costa Rica, I don't wanna say don't play on their site. You make your own decision. But if they're licensed there, it means you have absolutely zero recourse in any circumstances. There's literally nothing that can be done other than taking to the Internet and going, hey. You know, this is what this this particular site did to me. So, you know, we've played on Bookmaker quite a bit at inplayLIVE.

Andrew Pace [00:41:25]:

You know, the our line their lines are referenced regularly. In the grand scheme of things, would I not play there now? Well, no. I'm gonna be playing there probably every day this week. Right? So, you know, you we run these risks as professional players, but, gosh, bookmaker, like, pay the fucking guy his money for playing in your casino. If you gotta get rid of the account, that's one thing. You know, I know they don't clip players, but clip the guy, get rid of them, do what you gotta do, but pay him out the money.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:41:52]:

Yeah. No. And and no and no response is crazy.

Shane Mercer [00:41:55]:

Yeah. Crazy.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:41:56]:

Messed up.

Shane Mercer [00:41:57]:

Yeah. Yeah. Totally ghosted. Well, you know, Isaac, you're you're out there covering this space in in a whole lot of ways, and and you're doing it at such a young age. Where are you hoping to kind of take this over the next, you know, 3, 4, 5 years? What kind of impact are you hoping to have on the industry?

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:42:14]:

I don't know. I'm I'm just trying to, you you know, shed some light on some things that I that I think are important. Yeah. I mean, I think it's it's just a pretty critical time in the US just in terms of still relatively fresh in legalization. Yep. And, obviously, it's a lot easier to mold opinions and policy when it's early on as opposed to trying to change them later. And so my main goal is just to kind of try to educate people, especially people who are maybe well intentioned and knowledgeable about policy, but don't really have that background in in gambling per se to understand why, hey. You know, maybe this well intentioned regulation actually is kind of not gonna work and is is counterproductive.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:42:58]:

And, just trying to basically, yeah, inform inform people with, with the perspective of a of a bettor and, you know, some things that I know about policy that that maybe I can apply to the gambling world as well.

Shane Mercer [00:43:09]:

Love it. Love it. Well, appreciate you, you know, taking on that mission. It's a big reason why this podcast exists, and, we certainly need other people out there doing the same because it's such a it's such a vast landscape growing very quickly. And and like you've kind of pointed out with, with a lot of people out there who maybe don't necessarily always know what they're talking about.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:43:30]:

Yeah. No. I mean and I and I think, you know, in this in the same way the same trying to do the same thing for bettors as well. You know? It it, I'm not one to, like people should be able to bet whatever they want, and most people are gonna lose. They don't care. But, like, there is something particularly frustrating about seeing people just throw away their money in in really egregious ways. I I was talking recently to some people who are just doing all of their betting on, you know, prizepix and underdog. And it's like, dude, you're getting plus 200 for a 2 leg parlay.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:44:00]:

I mean, this is just it's just egregious. And that that that saddens me. So, yeah, it's, try to change policy and then also try to make people lose a little bit less money.

Shane Mercer [00:44:12]:

Yeah. There we go. Well, we're we're we're sharing the same objective, Isaac. We'd love to have you back on the show at some point and definitely, keep us posted on your on your story there. We'll we'll we'll you know, we wanna hear more about that with this this beef with a regulator that you got going on. For sure. Alright. Where can people find you at?

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:44:29]:

You can find me on Twitter @ round robin 42. And if you wanna read stuff I've written, you can find it at howgamblingworks.com.

Shane Mercer [00:44:38]:

Love it. Isaac Rose Brennan, thanks so much for coming on the show. Appreciate it.

Isaac Rose-Berman [00:44:42]:

Thank you very much for having me.

Shane Mercer [00:44:48]:

Alright. Top now for the gridiron grind. We've got John Wilson, Gosu Thune joining us as always for this segment. John, you covered off the college football slate last week. So if anybody out there wants to hear your thoughts on it, they can go back and have a listen to last week's episode. But those college playoffs do kick off on Friday night, so, something to look forward to there. And, again, just go head back, have a listen to to what John had to say there. John, any updates or changes from your analysis from last week? Anything that you wanna touch on before we dive into the NFL?

John Wilson [00:45:22]:

No. I think just what we covered last week, everything seems to be going the way we thought it would. Market's coming in on Tennessee and Indiana, and, you know, I think it's not no surprise there.

Shane Mercer [00:45:33]:

Love it. Alright. Alright. Football. Shane, before

Andrew Pace [00:45:35]:

Before we get there, we gotta congratulate you. You won the OLG prize pool.

Shane Mercer [00:45:40]:

I did. I did. Yeah. Ended up, taking down the OLG, pools ticket last week. Ended up being a a 149 winners. It was a 12 game card. So 149 winners is is kind of a lot. The everybody, who won it took home, $2,155.

Shane Mercer [00:45:59]:

Because of the Canada Post mail strike, I actually, have to go downtown to pick up my winnings. And because of the strike, they've got a major issue with people from all over Ontario trying to claim various lottery prizes. They've all got to book appointments to go downtown. So I had to book my appointment for January 7th. So almost like a full month from winning it before I could collect. I I they

Andrew Pace [00:46:23]:

They stayed and never replaced the old ways. Fuck. That's awesome, man. I'm so happy that you have to do that.

Shane Mercer [00:46:28]:

Yeah. It's hilarious. Right? It's like, oh, man. I've gotten paid faster by Shady Offshore's books than than the OLG here.

Andrew Pace [00:46:35]:

Right. And and then based on that, I guess you'd never play in the pool again. Right?

Shane Mercer [00:46:39]:

Come on, dude. I play this every week. I've been doing it for I think this is I think this is my 12th season doing it every single week for for 12 seasons. And so, of course, I played it again this past week and I'm heading to Monday night again. And this is a 15 game card. So, yes, we're recording this on Monday. I've got the Vikings and I've got the Falcons tonight. I need them both to come through, and I'll I'll hit this pool again.

Shane Mercer [00:47:04]:

And with it being a 15 game card, hopefully, there'll be far fewer winners.

Andrew Pace [00:47:10]:

Okay. So I gotta tell you, number 1, congrats, and I'm happy that you won. I think it's super cool. We're breaking down NFL every week. And since you have nailed last week and, you know, you're potentially in line to nail this week, we should be asking you about your picks, Shane. Right? That's awesome stuff. Couple of things I'm going to challenge you on. Okay.

Andrew Pace [00:47:31]:

The first, have you ever looked at the games that you box in, removing them and taking a parlay on a book with parlay boosts and looking at what the payout is for the cost of your ticket with the boxed in games? Have you looked at that before.

Shane Mercer [00:47:44]:

I have, explored that before, and it's just the kind of thing where you don't know what the prize is going to be. So in some cases, yeah, you know, parlaying, it could be could be a better play depending on the favorites you're taking. But when you get a massive dog come through and either you took the dog or you box that game and that massive dog comes through, that weeds out so many people where the upside of of the of the pool win would be far bigger than than, the Parlight and the Parlight payout.

Andrew Pace [00:48:16]:

Okay. Interesting. But, I mean, something to look at. Right?

Shane Mercer [00:48:18]:

We're always looking at your Absolutely. I've had people bring that up numerous times. Believe me. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:48:23]:

Right. And and I think for people like we're referencing Ontario right now, a lot of people have these types of pools available to them. Some of them are online at different, you know, sweepstakes type books as well. And even sportsbooks will have, ones that don't even cost money to enter.

Andrew Pace [00:48:39]:

You would have just had to have made a bet on the site or been an active customer on the site in order to participate. So when you when something like this is coming in like last week, I'm not gonna ask you the question because the we stopped recording, and then you said, hey, pace, John. I gotta throw something at you. I could win upwards of 400,000 tonight, but I know it's gonna be less than that. I'm trying to figure out how to hedge. So we've just done the episode. Right? We had the the, you know, the the brilliant guy from the UK, you know, saying hedgings for gardeners. And then you come in here asking how to hedge this game.

Andrew Pace [00:49:16]:

And my understanding is you put $200 on the cowboys at plus 6. Is that correct?

Shane Mercer [00:49:20]:

Plus 5. Plus plus 5 flat.

Andrew Pace [00:49:23]:

So you hedged a potential $400,000 ticket with a $200 cowboys plus 6.

Shane Mercer [00:49:29]:

Plus 5. Yeah. The the remember remember too that the pools ticket itself is an $80 ticket. So, you know, that's all it is.

Andrew Pace [00:49:37]:

So I I like that you did a hedge middle.

Shane Mercer [00:49:39]:

Yeah. Middle. Could've hit both and both looked really close in that game. Bengals, cowboys, and and, you know, it was it was living in that middle until, like, the end of the game.

Andrew Pace [00:49:51]:

If that gave you peace of mind, I will not judge you.

Shane Mercer [00:49:54]:

Big time peace of mind.

Andrew Pace [00:49:56]:

Did it?

Shane Mercer [00:49:56]:

Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Dude, I was, like, not sweating it as much. I'm like, alright. Well, at least I know I'm coming away with something out of this game.

Andrew Pace [00:50:05]:

Now everything in life is a massive fundamental difference between learning it and living it. So the discussion versus the execution. Okay? We had Johnny from Betts Stampedon who asked this man if how much he would hedge for a $1,000,000,000 coin flip, and he said $0. I'm flipping for the full amount. So I gotta call you out for that, Shane.

Shane Mercer [00:50:30]:

Okay.

Andrew Pace [00:50:31]:

You won't you won't hedge for a $1,000,000,000. Right? But you will hedge for $200 on your cowboys plus 6. So plus 5. Sorry. So the reality of life is this, guys. You can talk about being an expert about buying real estate, but it's not the same until you've made your first purchase. You could talk about being a great dad and what you would do as a father. It is not the same until you are a dad.

Andrew Pace [00:50:59]:

And you can talk about flipping for a $1,000,000,000, but it is not the same when you are staring down the barrel of a $2,000 parlay that you hedge out of. So, Shane, congrats on the win.

Shane Mercer [00:51:11]:

Thank you.

Andrew Pace [00:51:13]:

You're back in line to win again tonight. By the time this airs, you will have won or lost again. Are you hedging tonight?

Shane Mercer [00:51:17]:

I mean, look. Okay. This being a 15 game it's a 15 game ticket. K? There the I I know for a fact that the prize pool will be bigger than the $2,000 win. K? So I I feel like Why do you You know what? Yes. Yes. I'm going to hedge again. I'm gonna do 3 parlays where I take the the other teams.

Shane Mercer [00:51:38]:

So, basically, I have I have the Vikings and I have the Atlanta Falcons. I need them both to win. So I will do 3 parlays with the other combinations in there, which are all I've already looked at them. They're all paying in the area except the 2 dogs. If I the the Chicago Raiders parlay pays about 12 point o, and and the other 2 parlays pay about 4 point o.

Andrew Pace [00:51:59]:

So If any of the 2 dogs win, you'd lose. Correct?

Shane Mercer [00:52:03]:

If if any of the 2 dogs yeah. Then then then the the pool stick, it will lose. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:52:08]:

Yeah. So you you could just take the 2 dog singles.

Shane Mercer [00:52:12]:

I could.

Andrew Pace [00:52:12]:

Right? You don't need to build a parlay. That's correct. Right, John?

Shane Mercer [00:52:15]:

Well, no. Yeah. I could just take them each as singles. Yes. Yeah. I could do it that way.

John Wilson [00:52:21]:

You could just take both of them on the spread. Take them both plus 3a half at, like, plus 140 or something, you know, or plus 120.

Andrew Pace [00:52:27]:

Or or not hedge, Shane.

Shane Mercer [00:52:29]:

Yeah. Well You know?

Andrew Pace [00:52:30]:

Okay. But how do you know the pool is bigger tonight than it was in the previous week?

Shane Mercer [00:52:34]:

I'm just I'm just saying that the previous week was a 12 game, ticket. This is a 15 gamer. The 5th the 15 gamers are always, well into 5 figure, prizes.

Andrew Pace [00:52:46]:

Okay. So you're you're staring down the barrel of a $10,000 plus parlay.

Shane Mercer [00:52:51]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:52:52]:

Are you hedging for a $100 tonight, or are you well, like, what are we doing?

Shane Mercer [00:52:56]:

My ticket's an $80 ticket. And so what I'll probably do is put a if if you know, depending on what it was, I was looking at the 3 parlay route, but but, you know, you guys make a good point there where I could just take 1 dog on each one, separately. That that's a way to play it out too. But I I probably won't put much more than a $100 on it just to, you know, make the money back. You know what I mean? Like like, I'm not I'm not looking to cash in huge here. I'm just looking to to It's a peace of mind. It's a peace it's a absolute peace of mind thing for me where I I know I'm coming away with something as opposed to nothing.

Andrew Pace [00:53:29]:

You are so full of shit on your $1,000,000,000 flip.

Shane Mercer [00:53:29]:

You know what? The $1,000,000,000 thing was in the moment. You guys are sitting there doing math. You the other thing with the $1,000,000,000 flip that you gotta think about is you need a buyer. You gotta go out there and find a buyer for this for this coin flip. K? That's a whole bunch of work all in of itself. You you know, at least in this scenario, I'm in full control all the time.

Andrew Pace [00:53:49]:

In the hypothetical scenario, we had the option to be to be bought out and what the number was. So, anyway, we'll leave it at that. Good luck tonight, Shane. The hedging makes me sick. I wanna just buy your ticket off you. That's what I wanted to do.

Shane Mercer [00:54:05]:

I wanted to buy it for. How much would you buy for?

Andrew Pace [00:54:06]:

Well, we that's something

Shane Mercer [00:54:08]:

It could be 400 k, because how much would you pay for a ticket that could It could pay 400k.

Andrew Pace [00:54:13]:

No no, based on your information you just said, we'd be valuing it at $10,000.

Shane Mercer [00:54:18]:

I I think it could be significantly more than that. It could be in the 25 to 30 k range.

Andrew Pace [00:54:23]:

Yeah. So, I mean, you you know, if you just price the parlay of the 2 favorites together, right, you're gonna get the vig the vigorous value Yeah. Of of what your current ticket is worth combined with knowing the payout, which we don't know. So that that's what you look at in that scenario. And I think that for me, like, I would be interested in the 2 favorites if I was getting, like, I don't know, plus 200 on the 2 favorites.

Shane Mercer [00:54:51]:

So that's about what I think they pay. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:54:54]:

Yeah. So if that's what they pay right now on the parlay for the 2 of them, you know, I'd need value on it.

John Wilson [00:54:59]:

Like, parlaying, like, the if you just parlay the favorites right now, it's, like, minus 130.

Andrew Pace [00:55:04]:

That's minus 130, Shane.

Shane Mercer [00:55:08]:

So you would have to parlay the 2 favorites?

John Wilson [00:55:09]:

You're sitting on, like, a you have a ticket that's currently priced at minus 130, and you've got it at, like, 200 to 1.

Shane Mercer [00:55:16]:

Yeah. Wow.

John Wilson [00:55:17]:

It's like if I came to you and said, hey, I'll give you I'll give you plus 20,000 on the Vikings and Falcons money line parlay tonight, you would just bet, like, you would bet multiple units on it right now. Right?

Shane Mercer [00:55:31]:

Absolutely.

Andrew Pace [00:55:34]:

Shane, let it ride.

Shane Mercer [00:55:34]:

Let it ride, they say. Let it ride.

Andrew Pace [00:55:37]:

Who cares, but you have to be comfortable with it losing.

Shane Mercer [00:55:40]:

Let it ride. I'm I'm, you know, very comfortable with it losing. I mean, I lose this most of the time. Right? I usually win it, you know, couple times a year. It's kinda kinda thing. So been playing it for this long. I mean, I'm I'm used to losing it. But getting to Monday night, I the way I look at it is if you make it to Monday night, you've won because you're in the position to hedge.

Shane Mercer [00:55:59]:

Right? So, you know, this is this is a long term thing I'm looking at where I know I'm playing it again next week and the week after that and all season next season and the next season after that. So it's like, you know, I kinda kind of look at it, take my wins when I get them.

Andrew Pace [00:56:14]:

Right. So take the win. Don't hedge. Okay. K. Let's dive into the NFL for this this week. Good. Shane, you wanna just release your card now?

Shane Mercer [00:56:24]:

Now? I usually look at it about about midweek Wednesday, Thursday where I'm I'm starting to put it together, and then it all comes down to Sunday, though, you know, where Sunday morning's the the crunch time.

Andrew Pace [00:56:35]:

Hopefully, some of the analysis on the show has helped. Oh, big time. On that on that note, we took a teaser loss last week, and my last two teaser losses are because the freaking quarterback goes down. Gino Smith got hurt with Seattle, which sucked. But, John, I know we have a bit of a unique week now. NFL is gonna be on Saturdays, and then, obviously, we're diving into the holiday season where we've got 2 games on Christmas. We're not gonna get to those today, but, what do you what do you like this week?

John Wilson [00:57:04]:

Yeah. I mean, obviously, a couple of games that stick out. The Steelers Ravens on that Saturday night, I think, is when that game is being played. I think I saw this they could get the Steelers a plus 6 at the time we were recording this on Monday, which I thought was pretty wild. I think it's just like a reaction to what you know, I think the Steelers were a massive public dog against the Eagles, and they lost and didn't look competitive. So I think you're just gonna see a lot of action on the Ravens this week because, you know, they blew out the Giants. Whoop de do. Good for them.

John Wilson [00:57:33]:

So, I'll definitely be on the Steelers there. Plus 6, plus 6 and a half, plus 7. We'll see where the line goes. And then I I saw the the Bucks are only 4 point favorites, albeit at Dallas. But I mean, I just I don't think Dallas should get much of a bump for beating Carolina. Even though I think some people were surprised because Carolina's been playing competitive football for a while. So I definitely like the Bucks there. I like the, Bears at plus 7.

John Wilson [00:58:00]:

We can get it, and, at home against the Lions. You know, Lions just keep taking more injuries. I liked the Lions against the Bills just cause I thought it was a good number. They they just couldn't stop anybody. You know, I don't think Chicago's been very is pretty good. But, plus 7 in a divisional matchup is pretty is pretty solid outdoors too in the cold with golf there. And then I'm hoping that the number on the Commanders, keeps creeping up. They're hosting the Eagles this week.

John Wilson [00:58:29]:

Eagles have just been, you know, playing really well, beating everybody. And I think it's just, you know, I think it's gonna be a sell high point for me on them after they really handled the the Steelers. So I'm hoping that number gets up to 5, 5a half, 6. I think it's sitting at 3a half or 4 right now.

Shane Mercer [00:58:47]:

Yeah.

John Wilson [00:58:48]:

Yeah. Yeah. So I'm hoping that number gets up, but, we'll see. I think it's gonna be really cold in that game. And then there's a couple couple good teaser options, but I know we'll we'll talk about that a little bit. But I think that's I think that's it for me on this on the slate.

Andrew Pace [00:58:59]:

Well, I think we gotta bring up the Houston Texans playing the Kansas City Chiefs because the Kansas City Chiefs right now are plus 2 because of the Mahomes injury as we're recording this. I mean, that line implies that he is not playing. I I I gotta think, like, does that move to 3 if he's officially out? Like, how much is that line really gonna move? And can Kansas City compete without him at home based on the way they've played this season? I don't know. I think I think that game is just kinda interesting. Do you have any thoughts on it? Or

John Wilson [00:59:29]:

Yeah. I just like, I I I don't know that I really wanna back Stroud on the road as a favorite in, like, the cold and stuff. I don't know that he's he's just not played well on the road all year and last year. He's just not the same quarterback, and then goes outdoors in the cold. You know, I hear I hear it with, like, not you know, Mahomes means a lot to that team, and that numb this number is probably right. If he's out, it should probably be Texas minus 3. But I'm just I don't know that it's something that I'm interested. I actually kinda prefer the number go the other way, and it gets up to, like, 6 because everybody's betting against the Mahomes list seats.

Andrew Pace [01:00:06]:

Ya I was referencing the Chiefs side of it personally.

John Wilson [01:00:07]:

Yeah. Oh, you wanted you want Chiefs plus? Is that that's what you're saying?

Shane Mercer [01:00:11]:

Yeah.

John Wilson [01:00:12]:

Yeah. Yeah. I hope the number keeps going. That's the side I would take probably.

Andrew Pace [01:00:15]:

Yeah. I'm just reminded of Mahomes getting hurt in, the playoffs 2 years ago.

Andrew Pace [01:00:22]:

And I can't even remember who the quarterback was. Was it Chad Henny?

John Wilson [01:00:26]:

Chad Henny. Yeah. Yep.

Andrew Pace [01:00:27]:

And is he the backup?

John Wilson [01:00:29]:

It's Carson Wentz, I think. Okay.

Andrew Pace [01:00:31]:

Because Chad Henny and did the Chiefs look like they do with Mahomes in? No. Did they win? Yes. You know? So, like Yeah. He gets the job done or or that team gets the job done. There's a winning mindset in that in that squad, and I'm not even referencing them winning the game. I'm just, like, thinking about, like, a low scoring competitive football game that could be teased. Right? As for teasers, I mean, I freaking hate road favorites. There's a reason why I didn't take the commandos this week.

Andrew Pace [01:00:58]:

In in the in this past week, I think that if you had a teaser on them, you got freaking hosed at 1a half. But separately of that, I kinda try to stick to my gun. So, like, the lions to me is obvious. And do I want them on a teaser? It's like, sure. I just I just personally hate road favorites. And when I go through the menu, there's nothing that I really, really love. The Commandos Plus is interesting, but, again, it's a spot kind of like Seattle last week where I go, you're going in and against a team that's just so freaking good. The Packers have been playing such good football, and I think that's the the same can be said about the Eagles.

Andrew Pace [01:01:36]:

So, yeah, I I nothing's really sticking out at me too too, obviously. John, what about what about on your side?

John Wilson [01:01:41]:

So I I like a bigger teaser this week with, like, a larger number. So we can get, like, 3 or 4. So you can do the 3 team, 10 pointer, or the 14, 13 pointer, and get normal juice on that. So there's a couple, like there's like an anti tank, parlay teaser you could, you could do this week. So you've got the Pats on the road at the Bills. You've got the Giants on the road at the Falcons. You've got the Saints on the road at the Packers. Those are all like 11 to 14 point spread.

John Wilson [01:02:08]:

So like, I'm gonna do from something probably really square and just put all those teams together and then probably throw in, like, maybe the Steelers if they get to, like, plus 7. And then I can get, you know, 20 points on them, and that and get to normal juice on one of those because I like I mean, all of these these really square, teasers, these parlays, like, they just keep winning. It's 2 years in a row. Like, it's it's not a fluke. I think as in the Sharp community and the books, like, we're just not I just don't think we're properly handicapping when you have teams with bad quarterbacks and bad coaches going against competent NFL teams. I think we're just behind on that because these these big spreads, these favorites, they keep covering, and they and these dogs just don't win outright. We've just week after week. For 2 years now, it's been that way.

John Wilson [01:02:52]:

So, I'm gonna be a square this week and probably do something like that.

Andrew Pace [01:02:56]:

I mean, the thought of none of those teams being absolutely shit kicked is almost impossible for my brain to process. So I I think I might leave that one I think I might leave that one to you, John. I do kinda wanna keep a trend of of taking something. I keep looking at 40 niners games just thinking they're the 40 niners, but, like, you can get them to plus 7a half right now on the road against Miami. But I think I think I I got a pass there. So, yeah, I think for me, I'm just gonna be doing Lions, Bengals. You can get those both down to minus 1 right now. And I'm not thrilled about it, but we'll we'll keep the keep the momentum going.

John Wilson [01:03:34]:

Good. Take your Chiefs, you know, get them up to 8 now.

Andrew Pace [01:03:38]:

I, yeah, I just want a little bit of I I I do like the Chiefs. I just want a little bit more information as we head into Saturday. It is a short week for them, so I think that that obviously lends itself to not playing. But Yeah. Patrick Mahomes just he just plays. He just fights through everything. But I think that in this situation, it might be one of those ones that makes a little bit more sense. Sense.

Andrew Pace [01:03:55]:

Before we sign off, Shane, I do wanna ask you your opinion since you're the OLG guy, but I do have to do another shout out to the NFL coaches, this past week. The fucking Washington commandos are so unbelievably lucky to have won that football game

Shane Mercer [01:04:13]:

I didn't need that stress because I didnt have that game boxed either. Like, fuck that.

Andrew Pace [01:04:18]:

So it is first down in field goal range with 2 minutes and 36 seconds left. They lose 3 yards on first down, but they're still in range. They throw a bomb to the end zone, which if they score a touchdown, they give their opponent 2 and a half minutes to still potentially win the game. With they had time still is what I'm saying. Are they gonna win if they score that touchdown? Yeah. They're gonna freaking win the game. But is there a chance they still lose? Yes. That leads to a stop clock and then out of field goal range.

Andrew Pace [01:04:54]:

They throw an incomplete pass after that. They use up a total of, like, 20 seconds on their drive, and the Saints still keep their time out in their pocket. They almost lose the game as a result of it. If they you would never do what I'm about to say. But if they went Neil, Neil, Neil, field goal, they would have been up 10 points, and their opponent would have had about a minute left to drive back on them with with no timeouts. What the fuck are these coaches doing? That's number 1. Number 2, Lafleur on Sunday night football for the Packers. The game is over.

Andrew Pace [01:05:30]:

This isn't about win or lose. Seattle has packed it in. They have given up. They go run, run, run, and they give Seattle a minute 15 to go run, run back. And what does LaFleur try to do? He throws a fucking 80 yard pass to Christian Watson, which is incomplete, stopping the clock, being hugely disrespectful, and openly trying to score in that spot late in the game. Seattle gets the ball back. What do they do? Instead of run, run, they go run, run, run. You guys listening, you might think that that is completely meaningless, but it's it means more than that, and it's the key moments in games that certain coaches are trying to do things that will cost them wins at some point.

Andrew Pace [01:06:14]:

I don't mean might. It's a certainty, and it is so mind bogglingly I don't even know if that's a word, challenging to witness and process when you see it in the

Shane Mercer [01:06:25]:

I think we saw it at the beginning of the season with Sirianni. Right? Didn't didn't they lose to the to the commandos in in that game.

Andrew Pace [01:06:31]:

Yes.

Shane Mercer [01:06:31]:

At the beginning of the season, and that's exactly what happened.

John Wilson [01:06:34]:

Right. I think Falcons

Shane Mercer [01:06:35]:

Was it Falcons? Oh, it might have been Falcons. Yeah. It might have been it might have been, Kirko chains there making the comeback. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:06:40]:

Yeah. Yeah. That's right. It was the Falcons. Yeah. And so the the losses do occur from these decisions. And my god, the Commandos escaped a bullet there. I don't know if that was Kingsbury, but my god.

John Wilson [01:06:53]:

But Jets almost did it as well. They, now now, Green, they weren't trying to. It was a broken play, but Davante Adams, like, was just trying to get to the sticks, and then he turns around, and there's nobody in front of him. So he just runs all the way down. And he tries to score, which at that moment, he probably should. But then, you know, they could have actually just run the ball three times. The Jags actually let him in.

John Wilson [01:07:14]:

But there would have only been, like, 10 seconds left after that.

Andrew Pace [01:07:17]:

I'm glad you brought that up, John. Perfect example. They lost the week before because of it.

Shane Mercer [01:07:23]:

Yeah. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:07:25]:

Now and and you could have argued the game still sort of mattered then. They threw the ball to Davante Adams instead of running it. He stepped out of bounds. They went on to lose the game in overtime because they left their opponent time. That won us our teaser that we we had called. Yeah. So we were happy with it, but that was another insane example. And then did you see the post press interview with Aaron Rodgers about exactly that? About not kneeling on the ball.

Andrew Pace [01:07:54]:

So they lost the week before because of the way they played the end of the game, then they played it again the same way against the Jags. They they exposed themselves to a potential loss from the way that they did it. And both of these weeks, we had the Jets money line live. Thankfully, 1 of the 2 came in, and these are a big plus money. We had the Jets at, like, plus 250 yesterday, when they were down 3. We thought it could be a walk off score and said there's, like, 4 more scores. Yeah. But point is, afterwards, in the press, he got interviewed about not kneeling on the ball there.

Andrew Pace [01:08:29]:

And he went to the sideline, and they all talked about it. He said, Adams, him, whatever. And after he smiled, then he said, but sauce wouldn't have gotten his first pick. And they he used it as a defensible argument. And he he said it to the media. Sauce wouldn't have gotten his pick, like, leading to some sort of bonus or or something like that. And it's like, dude, I know you're freaking 211 this season or whatever the hell you are. But, like, that's the message that's out there now.

Andrew Pace [01:08:59]:

And, you know, we we talked about Ryan Day previously where he's like, anything can happen. And it's like people defending this style of play, it has led to losses. We brought up the Falcons and the the Jets example, and it will continue to lead to losses. So I hope somewhere out there, someone's listening.

Shane Mercer [01:09:21]:

Yeah. Alright. Eventually, they'll this will make its way to to the ears of some coaches somewhere.

Andrew Pace [01:09:26]:

Shane, OLG card wizard, you have to any games you like this week, or is it all just based on who's gonna win?

Shane Mercer [01:09:32]:

It's all based on who's gonna win. No. Let's have a look, though. What are what are the games? Do you know, like, the the Steelers, Ravens game is gonna be prime for that that Steelers Steelers upset, I think. You know? You got that divisional game, so that's probably a box for me, when when I get a when I get a look there.

Andrew Pace [01:09:48]:

A box is a stay away, guys.

Shane Mercer [01:09:50]:

That's what it means. It means take both to win there because it's it's one of those divisions. Bet the dog.

Andrew Pace [01:09:54]:

You know what we need from you? We need your dog of the week. Because you're not boxing every underdog. Who's your dog of the week?

Shane Mercer [01:10:01]:

My dog of the week that I'd be willing to take straight up no box is probably the Washington Commandos against against the Bengals. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:10:10]:

So now now that I know in these conversations that you try to act all ballsy, and then are you gonna box that game?

Shane Mercer [01:10:17]:

No. No. I don't know a 100% right now. I don't wanna say I absolutely won't. I gotta have a you know, I wanna have a a more in-depth look at the card here. But, typically, actually, the the games that I box are those games with fucking shitty teams playing each other, where you just don't know what's gonna happen. You know? And we have, I think, you know, like, Jacksonville Raiders. Like, that's a box.

Shane Mercer [01:10:37]:

Yeah. You know? Like like, forget that game.

John Wilson [01:10:39]:

Titans Colts.

Shane Mercer [01:10:42]:

Titans Colts. That's a box. You know what I mean? Those those are the ones.

Andrew Pace [01:10:46]:

I want your game. I want your dog of the week.

Shane Mercer [01:10:48]:

Right now when I look at this slate and I'm looking at everything, it is the Washington commandos straight up that I probably wouldn't box. I would probably take them to win that divisional game at home.

Andrew Pace [01:10:58]:

You just lost your edge in the OLG.

Shane Mercer [01:11:01]:

Everybody out there everybody out there knows. Alright. Alright. That was fine. Alright. Well, till till next time, till next week, we'll, we'll we'll run this back and have a look, and then we'll know whether I won or lost or what happened, and I can fill you in on my hedge. Alright. To sports bettors out there, John, pace everybody listening around the world till next week.

Shane Mercer [01:11:24]:

Keep beating those books. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download, and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below. And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code BEHINDTHELINES.