Episode 92

Welcome [00:00:00]:

You're listening to Behind the Lines, a podcast presented by inplayLIVE and powered by Pinnacle, the number one sports book where winners play and never get limited. Go to pinnacle.com/inplaylive to sign up and get in the game.

Shane Mercer [00:00:16]:

They went to Evander Holyfield at one point. Remember and Evander Holyfield had his ear bitten off by Mike Tyson in a very, you know, a historic moment in sports. Yeah. Guess what? His earpiece wasn't working. Of all things to not be working, Evander Holyfield's earpiece. You know? I mean, it was it was just a cluster of of complete and utter technical failure over and over and over again.

Shane Mercer [00:00:57]:

Hello, and welcome. It's behind the lines powered by Pinnacle, purifying the sports betting industry. I'm Shane. Pace is with us as always, and we've got Gosu, John Wilson joining us off the top this week. You're probably listening to this on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day or Boxing Day, so a very merry Christmas to all of you out there. And, guys, I don't know if you realize this, but we're recording this episode on Christmas Eve Eve. So I'm calling this our Christmas EV episode. What do you what do you guys think? Does that work?

Andrew Pace [00:01:22]:

Love it. John do you know what Boxing Day is?

John Wilson [00:01:24]:

You explained it to me the other day. So I think I got it.

Andrew Pace [00:01:27]:

Why don't you explain it to the US listeners then since you're an expert now?

John Wilson [00:01:32]:

Man, is this the day after Christmas? Right? When you, is it when you unbox things, I guess, on Boxing Day?

Shane Mercer [00:01:41]:

I guess because you pack every year, you got all these boxes and you figure out what to do with them and some of them go back to the store for returns. I don't know exactly why it's called Boxing Day, but, yeah, you know, you return stuff and you get great deals at the stores. It's almost like a Black Friday, but now it lasts more than a day. It lasts a week or 2 weeks at least with the deals. Same with Black Friday. So it's just, you know, it's a whole season of deals. Anyway, boxing it, but it's a stat holiday. I don't know how it became a stat holiday.

Shane Mercer [00:02:07]:

Maybe we felt like we needed one more after the Christmas Day stat holiday.

Andrew Pace [00:02:12]:

I yeah. It's a smart tradition here in Canada. I like what we're on to here. The the sit down. You should take note. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:02:18]:

You guys would enjoy it. Alright, guys. On today's show, we'll break down the NFL slate. We'll do the gridiron grind. We'll also talk about the college, football playoffs. Also Netflix doing Christmas Day, and the NFL. So we'll we'll dive into that because I got some thoughts on that. And, but first, a big piece of news that we didn't get to cover, over the past couple of weeks because we've had these great guests on that we've been chatting with.

Shane Mercer [00:02:39]:

And if you haven't had a chance to to listen to a few of those guys, head back to those episodes and have a listen. But a big piece of news that we haven't sort of been able to dive into that we've sort of been chomping at the bit to is, a big purchase that took pace that took place in the gambling and sports betting world. Gambling.comgroup purchasing Odds Holdings. Odds Holdings is the owner of OddsJam, which I know many of you out there in our audience are very familiar with. So gambling.comgroup has purchased Odds Holdings, owner of OddsJam, for up to a $160,000,000. It's $80,000,000 upfront and then an additional 80,000,000 depending on performance through the end of 2026. I have a few thoughts on on sort of the future of OddsJam and and companies kind of like it, but but, PACE, I know that, you know, you have a lot of experience with OddsJam. We had Alex Monahan, one of the cofounders of OddsJam, on the show, I think, at the beginning of this year.

Shane Mercer [00:03:37]:

Like, very early on in this year, 2024, we had him on, and, it was really interesting to chat with him. Congrats to him, and to his partner, Matt. Matt's last name is escaping me at the moment, but I'm pretty sure it's his partner's person is is Matt, his fellow cofounder. What a score for them. Big win for them. Massive. So congrats to them on on this big sale. But, Pace, I know you've had some dealings with OddsJam.

Shane Mercer [00:04:00]:

What do you think of this?

Andrew Pace [00:04:04]:

I mean, it was massive. You know? Sounds like potentially over a $100,000,000 sale in in the, you know, the world of sports betting from the standpoint of, like, the winning side, you know, which is pretty freaking cool. Yeah. I think OddsJam is the the kingpin of the odd space. I don't think any other odds provider, or, like, odds screen provider or odds comparison tools would able would be able to come close to that sales price or valuation. But it is actually interesting because it does set the tone for that type of thing, to continue to occur on this side of the industry. Like, obviously, in the betting boom, we saw some major acquisitions with odds providers. Right? You know, obviously, the purchase of SB Tech and, you know, MGM was heavily in the market for for the bidding there as well, and a few others, that were pretty notable that took place, you know, obviously with Barstow Sports and Penn Entertainment, and then obviously, over to Disney.

Andrew Pace [00:05:02]:

So, yeah, crazy stuff. Now from the standpoint of Oddgem itself, you know, it is really interesting because they have tens of thousands of use of paid users. Tens of thousands of paid users. And as a user of OddsJam where I was like, okay. You know, obviously, we have a a partnership with them. And I'm like, okay. You know, I'm gonna take this as seriously as I can, and they gave me and a few other members at inplayLIVE. I think John included, their most premium subscription.

Andrew Pace [00:05:32]:

So the one that costs 1,000 a month, that includes, you know, all the all the live odds. Everything everything that they offer, you know, it includes. And what's interesting about the product is whenever there is a notification to make a wager, and I think this is the case with any soft line, especially a pregame line. I think it exists for live as well, but any any soft pregame line. There's a race to market. So, you know, you are now competing with tens of thousands of people to get that line in. And in my experience, like, you know, if you do have your phone out and, you know, you're walking down the street and, up goes this. The and, of course, with our phones, we can change the sound so that if it was an OddsJam notification or or any odds provider app, we got a special sound for that.

Andrew Pace [00:06:16]:

Basically saying, like, it's time to make a a bet right now. Right? So you know, you're walking down the street, up it pops. You flip over to the sports book provided that you have it. And, of course, with OddsJam, you do customize the books that you want it to notify you for. And and it is important to note that not all books are compatible. And for someone like myself that, you know, is in Vancouver and, using some pretty obscure books, I I'm I'm not always gonna be able to to get the lines that are even set up for me. But boot loop, off it goes. You know, I go in to make a sports bet.

Andrew Pace [00:06:50]:

Timing is almost impossible there. Almost impossible. Now if I'm at my setup, I'm gonna be one of the first people in. I'm gonna be ready for it. And that's the kind of thing where I go, okay. How much time is this occupying outside of the games actually being on to make sure that I get in on, you know, whether it's a middle, an r, but plus EV line, whatever the case. So there's that side of it. Like, can you get the line in? Then the second part of it is if you did get it in.

Andrew Pace [00:07:16]:

And I've had so many people contact me over the last few years saying, like, hey. Just, you know, a pass cross with an OddsJam customer where they said, like, essentially, they got limited, from 1 bet or 2 bets, and and they didn't even necessarily win or lose. So when you're competing, you know, with 20,000 plus people all all getting the same line and you do in fact get it, the sportsbooks, use Oddgem themselves in the same screen. We know that because we met with Optic Odds who provides, it's the same company as OddJam. They just provide more of a b to b side. And we we met with them and, you know, the the they said that sportsbooks are using the the very same screen with Opticods to, mitigate their risk, which makes sense. So they can see when they have outlying lines, get notified themselves, and then, of course, punish the players who who took those lines. Right? So, you know, that sounds doom and gloom.

Andrew Pace [00:08:11]:

Like, why would you use OddsJam? Yet there's always this argument. Why would someone keep it? Why would they still have these users, if that was the case for them? So there's a lot of there's a lot of reasons for that, but I'm gonna just basically boil it down right to the the base level here. The sportsbook screen, both pregame and live, allows you to interpret the odds themselves and for you to make your own decisions. When that is the case and it isn't being necessarily spoon fed to you, you are more likely to do better with your sportsbooks than to be clipped just right out of the gate immediately. And the good news is that's actually their cheapest option of all of the products that they sell. So there's a lot of tiers that are in kinda like the 100 to $200 range, and, we have a promo code with them if you use code inplaylive 15. I think it gets it down to, like, $70 a month. And, that that sportsbook screen for me, that is the value of OddsJam.

Andrew Pace [00:09:13]:

That is the product, and that is the way that it becomes a tool in your tool belt as a sports bettor.

Andrew Pace [00:09:17]:

The $2,000 a month live stuff, it either posed the same problems that I just said, posted lines that actually were not on the sites themselves, or, you know, middles that just actually weren't there. And as they posted and you go and look at them, the they they they were not accurate, just with the technology of of pulling the true lines from the sportsbook. I don't know if you would have anything to add to that, John, because I know you've used it as well. Yeah.

John Wilson [00:09:49]:

No. I think that's a great point. I mean, I think it's also, you know, it's such a I mean, it's a great tool to use, but you're right. Like, the as much as we're gonna use it, other like, the people on the other side are gonna use it. And I I know I've definitely experienced being limited. Maybe not necessarily because I bet something that was an a line that was off of the market that I found on ObsGen, but just I know that when you you're ahead of a line change on stuff, especially the real softer books, They really go out of their way to to try to target you and get rid of you.

Andrew Pace [00:10:20]:

And it it is interesting because, like, for example, one of the books that I had turned on was Botano. So Botano is available in Ontario as a licensed and regulated book, and then they have a separate sort of entity that's available to the rest of Canada. I had to turn it off. OddsJam accurately represented Betano, but every single line I was getting was from that sportsbook. Yeah. They limited me in one bet, so they limited me in one bet. Right? The bet lost. So I I never made any money from this site.

Andrew Pace [00:10:52]:

And then my OddsJam is just spitting batano at me when in reality with the plus EV stuff, you'd almost want it to only be, you know, pinnacle bookmaker and a handful of offshores because then you're actually getting, lines that you won't get hurt on, and you're gonna get way fewer, if not any opportunities. Right? But at least when you know that you get one, you wouldn't be punished for it. Right?

John Wilson [00:11:18]:

Yeah. Yeah. And I, you know, I think I think books actually and I've I know I've made this point before, I think, on this podcast, but the I think there's a lot of books who know that they have weak lines in specific markets in specific sports. You know, we've joked about, like, MGM as an example of their their basketball totals, like, just seem to be higher at certain points of the game than everybody else. And it's instead of fixing that problem, it's like they use it as a trap almost to catch sharp sports bettors. Right? It's like anyone who's betting this number around this time in a game consistently, they've identified where we are weak, and it's rather than fix where we're weak. We're just gonna use that to get them off our site. Right?

Shane Mercer [00:11:57]:

Right. And that provides a lot of value to a book.

Shane Mercer [00:12:00]:

Like, if you're if you're, you know, you're an operator, like, hey. That that's, you know, that's that's a great way to to sort of catch your sharps, so to speak. Make makes a lot of sense. You know, I I wonder too about the future of, a company like OddsJam as, you know, pace you I think you sort of hit the nail on the head when it comes to 10,000, 20,000. And if they continue to grow, you know, perhaps 50,000, a 100,000 users all rushing to the same lines to to hit a bad line somewhere or, you know, a soft line, somewhere, you know, and and how that erodes the edge over time and how that edge, you know, can can disappear as you were kind of saying in a matter of minutes. And and I think as it grows, it'll it'll erode those edges long term, you know, and they just won't exist as often or or or as frequently, because ObsGen has done has been so good at the job that that it's doing, but but, you know, grown to to such a size where where, you know, it it it it isn't sustainable in that sense. And then the other side of this that I also wonder where I sort of question the the future of a of a of a service like this is, I think we're starting to see and and in our conversations pace with a lot of the guests we've had on, you know, they they've sort of reiterated this, but I think we are really starting to see the domination of a few sportsbooks, especially when we look, you know, south of the border, in in the US. I know, you know, I'm in a regulated market in Ontario.

Shane Mercer [00:13:30]:

We have a plethora of books, but there's still only a few that most people use. And, you know, we're really starting to see FanDuel and DraftKings kind of own the market in a lot of ways, and we've covered a lot of those smaller sportsbooks folding up shop in states that they had entered and moving on moving out and even on Ontario where where we've seen, books fold up and and move out. And I think as you kind of start to see these companies own a bigger and bigger portion of the market that they're operating in, where we're gonna start to see a lot of those other ones fold up shop. So, you know, the OddsJam screen down the line might go from, you know, a dozen books to only a half a dozen books. You know? And and and, you know, kind of getting rid of even more of of those opportunities. So I'm I'm kind of it'll it'll be interesting to see how how it how it plays out over time, but that's something I I think about when I think about the future, you know, of the space, and and what might be available over the long term. Any other thoughts on this before we move on?

Andrew Pace [00:14:32]:

Oh, big time. Yeah. So, I mean, one of the things we've really talked about on this podcast, especially in the early days of its inception, is advertising. Right? So, you know, we talked about, like, being inundated with with ads on TV in the in the start of all this, And and then obviously, you know, the stuff that's happened in Ontario with regulating how you can advertise, and then obviously different verbiage and things like that. But, you know, there is this affiliate model. We've we've touched on that quite a bit. Right? And pre legalization, these sportsbooks and I I think still to this day, but these sportsbooks really had to jump through hoops. It wasn't like we turned on TSN and DraftKings was you know, TSN or ESPN and DraftKings had actually sponsored it or FanDuel had actually sponsored it.

Andrew Pace [00:15:15]:

Right? And then, obviously, expert panel, you know, expert panelist giving us betting advice on there that that previously had never made a bet in their lives. Right? Well, in order to get around, you know, advertising on TV or social media or whatever it was, it it really was this affiliate marketing. So whether it was some sort of influencer, whether it was a major website, you know, that that, that promoted sports betting in some capacity that had a lot of users that the books would then pay to to to use that interface. That was really sort of the bread and butter of the industry and and and certainly was offshore in the gray market. And that still exists in a big way. Now gambling.com is really precisely that. I hadn't heard of them before this. So they definitely have news articles and different things to draw people to their website.

Andrew Pace [00:16:05]:

But, ultimately, this acquisition for them is the ability to then promote the sportsbooks that, OddsJam, has access to. Now I know OddsJam was doing that as well. They they they have affiliate deals with these sportsbooks, right, which I totally understand, especially if they aren't connected to players' losses, which is the traditional model where the percentage that the the player loses, you get access to a certain amount of it. But gambling.com is really in this deal for for that aspect of this. Can they continue to grow OddsJam? I'm not sure. Like, I really don't know. I think Alex has done such a tremendous job. Alex and the team have done such a tremendous job of doing that already.

Andrew Pace [00:16:53]:

You know? So there's there's really the affiliate play here, which is, again, gonna be associated with with players losses. So I don't know how that'll all shake out for them. But, yeah, Shane, kinda what you alluded to. It's like another company that's really you were talking about it from the sportsbooks side. Like, we may only see 5 or 6 sportsbooks on the screen. Well, what about all the companies that are now acquiring the other side of things to to really isolate and and and narrow down to the ones that are doing it best? And then how does that tie into actually winning? Right? So, you know, if if sportsbooks or affiliate deals, sites that are are generating their revenue from customer loss are the ones that are now acquiring these companies. What is what does that look like for for winning players down the road? It's it's interesting.

Shane Mercer [00:17:41]:

Yeah. Yeah. It it is. And, well, yeah, what does it look like for winning for winning players down the road? It it looks kind of bleak unless we get reg sort of step in and and start looking at things from a from a fair play perspective, which which some are, which is great to to see. But, you know, the offshore side of things, I think, you know, is an area that's probably kind of licking its chops going, you know, hey. We we we've seen this coming from afar, and and we're gonna just continue doing what we do in our space. And and they they might be the big winners in all of it.

Andrew Pace [00:18:15]:

Totally.

Shane Mercer [00:18:16]:

Yeah. Totally. Anyway. Okay. Let's move on because, there's a lot, a lot to get to over this holiday period. And one of the big sort of story lines, taking place this year is the NFL on Netflix on Christmas Day. So, traditionally, I think most people who have been betting on sports or have been actively involved in in in major sports for for a while or at least tracking as a fan and, you know, paying attention to the sports calendar know that the NBA has traditionally owned Christmas Day. It's it's kind of been the only sport on.

Shane Mercer [00:18:51]:

And and that's been a day for the NBA. And as a big basketball fan myself, I've kind of enjoyed that, you know, being able to sort of flick on a game here or there in between Christmas Day activities. But, now we've got 2 NFL games, and it's being broadcast on Netflix. Okay. So I have to I have to sort of get this out of the way here, guys, and, you know, part of my rant here. But did any of you watch Jake Paul, Mike Tyson fight on Netflix? I've chances are many of you did, pace. We talked about it here on the show. I don't think I've ever watched a worse sports broadcast in my life for anything.

Shane Mercer [00:19:35]:

That was the I I couldn't believe what I was watching, and I watched almost the entire broadcast because I was curious about it from from somebody that's worked in television and produced

John Wilson [00:19:46]:

Watching in quotes too. Right?

Shane Mercer [00:19:47]:

Yeah. Well, yeah, I I really was. I I had well, trying to watch, I should say. I tried to watch it all. I had it on for a chunk of time. But, you know, as somebody who's worked in television and produced television for a long time, I had a lot of interest in this event from a broadcasting sort of perspective. I just wanted to see how they would tackle it, how it would play out. Single handedly, one of the worst things I've ever watched when it comes to a sports broadcast.

Shane Mercer [00:20:11]:

And I'm not just talking about the fight, which was objectively terrible. Like, obviously, the fight itself, the main event fight was just brutal. But everything that that surrounded it was terrible. The commentary in the lineup of people that they had participating was kind of a joke. There were technical fuck ups all the way through. And I'm not just talking about the stream itself, which I'll get to in a moment. But what I mean, like, there were technical fuck ups, they were throwing to people who didn't have their mics turned on. They went to Evander Hollyfield at one point.

Shane Mercer [00:20:41]:

Remember? And Evander Hollyfield had his ear bitten off by Mike Tyson in a very, you know, a historic moment in sports. Yeah. Guess what? His earpiece wasn't working. Of all things to not be working, Evander Hollyfield's earpiece. You know? I mean, it was it was just a clusterfuck of of complete and utter technical failure over and over and over again. And then, you know, they had all of the like, you know, one of the announcers seemed like, you know, like, some kind of carnival announcer. Like, it was just terrible. It it it com completely brutal.

Shane Mercer [00:21:13]:

And then and then the big story from it all was it what it didn't work. As it as it got closer and closer to the the big two fights at the end of the night, the stream started crapping out. You couldn't watch it. It was freezing. It froze on me on my TV. I couldn't then and then I I tried resetting things and, you know, leaving Netflix, signing back in, going back in. I couldn't get back in on my TV. I went to my phone.

Shane Mercer [00:21:37]:

It worked for a moment on my phone, and then it crapped out. I ended up having to I I missed the good fight, Amanda Serrano and, what's the Taylor. The Serrano Taylor fight, which was, awesome, but I missed it in the moment. Missed huge portions of it in the moment because of this whole fuck up. I ended up watching the the shitty fight, the Tyson j Paul fight on my wife's phone, like, sitting there because that's that's the only place we ended up being able to get it to work. So it was just a completely and utter failure from Netflix's side of things, in terms of broadcasting a sporting effect. Now Netflix is saying that it was a great learning opportunity. They've stress tested their system.

Shane Mercer [00:22:17]:

They also don't expect the same level of viewership for the NFL games that they got. For the for the Paul Tyson fight. It was something like 65,000,000 streams for that fight. They're only expecting about 30,000,000 for these NFL games, but they did sort of say that they're already highlighting the peak time that they're most concerned about. 545 Eastern, 245 Pacific. That is because Beyonce is performing at the halftime show for the Ravens Texans game. So that'll probably be the most likely time that if it is going to crash, it'll probably crash at that time. For me, guys, at this point, I need to see it to believe it when it comes to trusting that Netflix will be able to deliver a flawless stream in a live sports event.

Shane Mercer [00:23:02]:

I didn't even bother touching on latency pace because they I as far as I can see, I don't even know that they can pull off a broadcast of a of a live sporting event. Alright, guys. That's my rant. What do you guys think?

Andrew Pace [00:23:15]:

I I think it brings up a a discussion that's bigger than Netflix. Right? I think we're talking about broadcasting games and broadcasting rights. We've touched on that from time to time. Like, why the fuck am I watching a game on Peacock on Saturday? As soon as we hear a Peacock game like, as soon as we hear the game's on Peacock, we pretend it's not on. And some of the games this year were actually good games. So then we go to, like, this NHL Monday night thing on Prime or Friday night baseball on Apple or Thursday night football on Prime. And, like, it is a real struggle as a user to be victim to the different ways that these companies are trying to maximize their profits from a streaming standpoint. Forget about the fact that you need YouTube TV and Amazon Prime and Netflix.

Andrew Pace [00:24:03]:

Forget about that for a second. Right? To the average person, that's freaking annoying. Right? For us as sports bettors, we're kind of like, give me the next thing that's the best way to watch the game. Like, give me that thing. Right? So I am definitely not immune to spending serious freaking coin on how to watch games. But they can't figure it out for us. So you're the ones making all the fucking money off of us. You can't figure this out for us? That to me is what's so fucked up here.

Andrew Pace [00:24:37]:

We're not talking about, oh, hey, Shane. You know, I'm gonna try to broadcast an NFL game today. You know, it's my first crack at this kind of thing. You know, I'm I'm I'm I'm live streaming with Twitch and with Zoom and with Twitter or whatever, and I I gotta broadcast the game tonight. You know, there's gonna be millions of people watching. This is a multi, multi $100,000,000,000 company. This is one of the biggest tech companies in the world. The fact that this is even a discussion is insane.

Shane Mercer [00:25:10]:

Yeah. Yeah. It's it's disappointing. You would think that they would be better. I just hope that they're figuring it out or that they have figured it out, you know, and that maybe, like, Tyson Paul was like a a trial run at this kind of thing where it was sort of a joke of a fight to begin with, and they were kind of like, hey. Let's let's do this. We'll put this on. It'll be a big show, and and this will be an opportunity for us to really test our our capabilities.

Shane Mercer [00:25:36]:

I mean, if if that's the case, they failed the test miserably. And and, you know, we'll we'll see where things go. Alright. John, any thoughts on on Netflix watching the game on Netflix? Are you concerned? He's not gonna use Netflix, sir. I mean, yeah.

John Wilson [00:25:54]:

I it's like, honestly, I mean, all it's it's on Christmas day, so I'll be with family. Right. And we'll have Netflix on, and we'll be watching it. But if if this were if this were, like, a regular thing, I think I would do what Pace mentioned earlier where it it I would treat it like the Peacock games, and I just wouldn't have it on. Yeah. Because all you know, I mean, it I'm also there's just other things that that I could be spending my time doing rather than trying to figure out how to find this and get this game on and then, like, dealing with buffering and all of that. I could be watching something else. I could I could have that screen on something else.

Shane Mercer [00:26:28]:

Yeah. Yeah. Great point too. Like, does the NFL even belong on Christmas Day?

Andrew Pace [00:26:33]:

It does. It does, unfortunately. I hate that it's on Christmas day. I hate that it is, but it does because of the fact that they have the numbers to back it. That's what Yeah. Any the NFL used to play games in Toronto. They don't anymore.

Shane Mercer [00:26:47]:

Yeah. Right? I went to a couple.

Andrew Pace [00:26:49]:

Every like, there's a reason why there's more UK games. Right? Mhmm. I fucking hate UK games. I'm I'm dropping a lot of f bombs today. But the the, you know, when they have the numbers to back it, that that shuts me up. So the real question is, will they be back on Netflix after this this performance? That will be the real question. And just so everyone knows, if you're sitting here thinking like, oh, well, I don't wanna use Netflix to watch the game. Use your sports book.

Andrew Pace [00:27:15]:

Okay? Yes. That encourages going in and betting. That's the whole reason why they have the product. Any sportsbook with BetVisions. So Bet365 is great. If you're in Canada, you can watch the games there. John, I think what are you using for that?

John Wilson [00:27:26]:

I use Draft Kings, FanDuel. Yeah.

John Wilson [00:27:28]:

Any of those, yeah. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:27:30]:

Watch it on your sportsbook.

John Wilson [00:27:32]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:27:32]:

It's way, way, way more live. It's I think it's about 4 to 5 seconds behind the actual play at the game. Yeah. Yeah. So there's an argument to be made that if you were at the game with potentially bad views, long lines, and the inability to go pee whenever you want, you'd be better off broadcasting it from your sports book than going to the game itself.

Shane Mercer [00:27:56]:

There you go. Maybe that's maybe that's the the the long term direction here. And you asked, will it be back on Netflix? The answer is already yes. It's a 3 year deal. So 2025, next year it'll be back, and 2026.

Andrew Pace [00:28:06]:

On Christmas?

Shane Mercer [00:28:07]:

On Christmas. Yeah. Or at least on Netflix. And And I think it's on Christmas as well. I'm pretty sure that's what I saw there. So

Andrew Pace [00:28:13]:

You know, this this is like the this is like a larger discussion as well. So not the games and how they're broadcast, but a business discussion. There's part of business that is staying in your lane. And what did Netflix do as a company? They brought Blockbuster to you. That was the first thing they did. They weren't an online streaming platform. Yeah. Your Netflix arrived in the mail, and they just made a more convenient version of Blockbuster.

Andrew Pace [00:28:39]:

But what they showed was that they were innovators. They were a company that wasn't afraid to try new forms of technology to bring us the conveniences that we enjoyed in the entertainment aspects of our life. And to this day, it doesn't matter what streaming platform you are on, whether it's Hulu, YouTube TV, Disney plus, you know, the list goes on and on. Netflix is by far the best product, and I don't mean the best shows or anything like that. Apple TV, another one. Amazon Prime Video. It is the most user friendly. They have figured out every little thing that when we are watching shows, how we want it to continue to play and how we want it presented to us.

Andrew Pace [00:29:23]:

Yeah. There's no better product. Okay? They have done such an exceptional job of going from a company that shouldn't have existed in the industry because someone coulda squash them had they have seen the trend before they did to being an absolute juggernaut. Now does that mean you don't expand into new areas? I'm not gonna say no to that. What I am gonna say is they're venturing into something that all the other players in this game are better than them at, and it's making them the same. Like, ESPN and Disney, they know how to broadcast games. That's what they've done long before Netflix. Is Netflix innovating that process? No.

Andrew Pace [00:30:02]:

They're not. Not at all. They are simply trying to do it as good as they have done it for literally a 100 years. I don't know how long it's been. They're trying to do it as well as they are, but they can't because the product the product doesn't has so much latency. Regardless of whether they nail this, they can't. Not today, at least. So that's where you you go the question, what are you doing? Stay in your lane.

Shane Mercer [00:30:30]:

Yeah. Well, well, we'll we'll see how how it goes on Christmas day. I mean, maybe they'll maybe that'll be it'll be you know, they'll pull it off or at least, you know, pull it off in some way that they can call a success. I don't know. We'll see. But why don't we actually talk about the games now? We you know, we we've sort of gone off here on a on a couple different, tangents to start the to start the show. But I think a lot of our audience out there have really been enjoying some of the content when it comes to actually breaking down the slates ahead, pace. I think we pulled off another, podcast teaser win this past week.

Shane Mercer [00:31:07]:

Am I right? We we we got that one? Are you sure we did? Yep. Yep. There we go. Yep. So, that that's, you know, a a w for everyone out there that's listening and and tailing those. We've got a lot to cover in this space, but, maybe we'll we'll save the NFL for a little bit. And why don't we dive into the college football playoffs, which are, coming up in well, at about a week a week away or so as when people are listening to this, it'll be about a week away. John, you wanna kick us off here, on the college side since I know that you probably focus on this at least more than I do?

John Wilson [00:31:42]:

Yeah. Sure. So, I mean, I I guess I'm assuming most people that are are listening either watched or were, like, the results of the first round, a lot of very noncompetitive games.

John Wilson [00:31:53]:

I think the narrative kind of for a while was, you know, these teams like Indiana, SMU, they got in over Alabama. I know a lot of people were up in arms. I think Greg McElroy during the broadcast of the Indiana Notre Dame game was saying we kinda went on a rant about how Alabama should have been in, over some of these other teams. But, you know, Tennessee, honestly, probably got outclassed more than any of the other teams against their opponent, in that first round. So the SEC people out there kind of shut up towards the end of that, I think. You know, the in the next round, I think it's a really big advantage to have that week off, and to not have played it for a game that 1st week because now you have 2 weeks of preparation, for the opponent. Especially, it's actually an advantage as well in that, not because of the strength of the opponent, but that the favorites, the the the assumed opponent that you would have and would have been preparing for won the game. So now, you know, you've had you've been preparing for this exact opponent for 2 weeks.

John Wilson [00:32:52]:

So some interesting lines out there. The Georgia, I think, was an underdog when the lines were there before the game, before Notre Dame beat Indiana and advanced, and now they're actually a a slight favorite. I think they're like a 1 point, 1 and a half point favorite, which is interesting. I think that that game is, like, is is about the closest handicap game. It should be the most interesting one because there's, you know, Ohio State, Oregon, we've seen them play before, and they played each other to a standstill, essentially. I'd I'd argue Ohio State was more impressive because they did it on the road and should have won if Will Howard knew how much time was in the game. And, so I think Oregon got a got a little lucky in that one. But at this Georgia Notre Dame game, you know, it's it's 22 teams that don't play each other to you know, Notre Dame hasn't played.

John Wilson [00:33:38]:

They played Texas A&M week 1, and and beat them in A&M. That's the only the only time they played the SCC. So, I think it's interesting. I I make it a pick as well, so I think that line's pretty pretty good. I think there's a huge coaching advantage for Kirby Smart in that game. I don't I really don't like Marcus Freeman as a coach that much at all, in terms of preparation in game, coaching. So, I I like I think there's value in Georgia. I think you can get up upwards of plus 600 now that all the favorites have advanced, but you're talking about the coaching mismatch of going against Freeman and then potentially James Franklin.

John Wilson [00:34:10]:

And it's just what what I'm saying, coaching is just worth to me, that's worth, more than I think the models and, the handicappers can can, account for.

Andrew Pace [00:34:21]:

It's probably the it's probably one of the biggest competitive coaching mismatches we've seen in the last few years of college football. Yeah. Because usually with the playoff format that we've had, we were getting Kirby Smarts and Nick Saban. Right?

John Wilson [00:34:36]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:34:38]:

Like, in in say what you want about guys like Ryan Day or, the coach of Oregon's

John Wilson [00:34:44]:

Dan Laning.

Andrew Pace [00:34:45]:

Yeah. They've been there. They haven't won, but they've been there. Right? I don't know. Yeah. James James Franklin has not been there. And whenever he's gotten close, we've seen him just get fucking destroyed.

John Wilson [00:34:59]:

Yeah. Destroyed. Yeah. So he'd, Frank you know, Franklin's they're playing Boise. I think they're, like, a they're a double digit favorite against him as I I think they probably should be, but that's a game again. Boise's had 2 weeks. I assume they've been preparing for Penn State the entire time. It's on a neutral field.

John Wilson [00:35:16]:

So you you just never you never know in those games. It's it's, again, it's James Franklin. They just won the biggest game in that program since, you know, I've decades, really, I guess, since they won a a title with Joe Paterno. So, who knows? They could they could have a letdown there. On the other side of the bracket are Blood Forks, catching 2 touchdowns against Texas. Of all the games, I think that Clemson, Texas game was probably the most competitive. It still wasn't it never felt like Clemson was gonna win the game, but they did get it to within a touchdown at the end with you know, they were getting a lot of soft, field there. But, you know, Texas looked like that you could move the ball on them.

John Wilson [00:35:55]:

And I I you know, again, Arizona State probably been preparing for Texas for 2 weeks. The talent mismatch is definitely there for them, but I don't trust I just I don't trust Quinn Ewers. Well, I never will. He's just the back foot specialist. He'll he'll probably make a bad play there, and I think that game could actually be a lot closer. I think I think they're catching too many points. I think that should be around 10, 10, 10 and a half, something like that. So 2 touchdowns, I think, is is pretty good there.

John Wilson [00:36:23]:

And then the last game, like, Oregon, Ohio State, Ohio State's favored. I think a lot of people are probably surprised by that, but that's exactly where I make line about 2a half. I think Ohio State's the better, more complete team. And like I said, I think they were more impressive in that, in even though they lost, to Oregon. So, you know, we'll we'll see. But Oregon, again, has an advantage. They got 2 weeks to prepare, so we'll see.

Andrew Pace [00:36:48]:

I I just I just look at lines, and I think to myself, like, the public money that's gonna come in on Oregon as an underdog, not at home, but at home. Because we saw, what, 70, 30 crowd in Ohio State against Tennessee, and the Rose Bowl's a lot closer to Oregon than it is to Ohio. So, like, it's no no neutral site is truly a home game, but that is gonna attract some some public attention for sure.

John Wilson [00:37:16]:

Yeah. It's always it's always interesting to me, like, trying to get in the mind of the public because the public is no longer like, they consume so much media around sports now. Right? So, like, the public wouldn't have been backing the Steelers like they were this weekend after they got destroyed by the Eagles, like, 2 or 3 years ago. Like, now they're consuming so much more betting information. They're seeing all these trends of, you know, this team does this when they after a loss, or this coach is this with as an underdog and all of that. And then they the what would have been the sharp side is now the public side. So, like, a lot of that sharp edge is now lost because the number is now moved that way, right, knowing that the public will also join them on that side. So I just I have I have a hard time sometimes figuring out, like, will the public back Oregon as an underdog because they're an under they'll look and see they're an undefeated underdog, or will they have consumed all the information about, like, Ohio State just annihilating Tennessee and now hop on that bandwagon? You know? I don't I don't know.

John Wilson [00:38:16]:

So it's interesting. Right now, it's about 5050 tickets, is what I'm seeing.

Shane Mercer [00:38:22]:

We'll see how that that line moves as we get as we get closer, to the day. John, like, I gotta ask you quickly because you referenced, Georgia plus 600. Is that to win it all?

John Wilson [00:38:34]:

That is it is to win it all. I think on FanDuel, you can actually and I'm sure other books have this, but I think on FanDuel, you can actually just bet them to make the final, which I would think is actually a better bet. I think I wanna say that was, like, plus 270, but some of those numbers might have shifted Right. Because it's been a few days removed from the games. But like I said, I I I like I like their side. Carson Beck being out, I don't know that that's he seemed like he was already ready to for his NFL life. You know? I think he's one of those what we're referencing earlier, the NIL stuff, the pace he's talking about. Like, he seems like one of those guys that's he's gotten his money.

John Wilson [00:39:11]:

He's got he's had the experience, and he's ready to cash again. So That's right. Oh my god.

Andrew Pace [00:39:17]:

He no. He he has no he the NFL life is I don't know what that's gonna look like. I don't think he has an NFL life. Okay. So there's one thing too that I think people should know as well. That Arizona State game, I don't I I know that team was, you know, this they are kind of the Cinderella or the darling version of, like, a March Madness right now where they've just even the fact that they got the buy is just like it's kind of insane. Right? And here they are, in the quarter finals. They didn't get the home game.

Andrew Pace [00:39:47]:

Right? I think that the stadium would have been electric there because they got a lot of that that program has really come into light. I I don't think that their fans are gonna travel as well to Georgia as the Texas fans will. So that environment, I think, could be really hard for them to play in. Now 14 points is insane. But, as someone who wants Arizona State in the final, I think that that environment's gonna be really tough for them to perform in personally. Yep. John, do you think there's any other, bowl games that you just wanna touch on that aren't aren't the playoffs? Is there anything that kinda excites you or jumps out at you or maybe some traps that you think should be avoided?

John Wilson [00:40:31]:

You know, I'm there's, I mean, there's definitely games I'm I'm interested in. I've and and getting a couple of games that I've that some lines a lot of those lines don't really exist anymore because a lot of the bowl season is kinda getting ahead of information. I I like Texas Tech against Arkansas. That game is gonna be like, from a fan standpoint, I think it's gonna be similar to an Arkansas home game potentially because it's in I believe it's in Memphis. But I think Arkansas is missing, like, the majority of their, like, entire offensive starting lineup. So I I just and I think that that's just kind of a a bad spot for them. So I I do like that. On that same day, I think this is, this is those Friday games.

John Wilson [00:41:15]:

The Georgia Tech Vandy game are really, like, the under in that game. 2 of the absolute slowest, run heaviest teams, out there. I think that game could be a real snoozer.

Shane Mercer [00:41:26]:

That's a 51 and a half? 51 and a half? Is that your line?

John Wilson [00:41:28]:

Yeah. Yeah. 51a half. 52 is a dead number, like 51a half, for sure on the under there. I think it's kind of like a squarish, like, thing where, like, play for an under, but it's just I mean, you know, prove me wrong. So those are some interesting games. I I I I don't look forward to watching the Iowa Missouri game. I think that Alabama Michigan game is another game that could be just really slow, a lot of running.

John Wilson [00:41:56]:

That's that's one that I I'll probably look at it under on. That's that's a I forgot basically a an that's before the 1st playoff game on New Year's Eve. That's in the morning, that game. And then later that day, South Carolina playing Illinois. I think South Carolina is really good. They're basically playing everybody in that game. Now that's a team that was, like, one of the hottest teams at the end of the year. I think they're gonna build into that.

John Wilson [00:42:21]:

And then I think Illinois is just awful. I think they're one of the worst, most fraudulent, ranked teams that was ranked all year. Every time they played, somebody like, I think they played Penn State and Oregon and got just absolutely annihilated in both of those games. And I think South Carolina is on par with, Oregon, and and certainly Penn State. I think they're a very good team. Could have easily been in the playoff and had given somebody some trouble. So, I really like South Carolina minus 9a half in that game.

Shane Mercer [00:42:48]:

Cool. Alright. Well, I think that just about does it then for for college football. Over to the pros. Are we ready to move on here? Alright.

Andrew Pace [00:42:57]:

Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Okay, guys. So another teaser win last week, which was freaking awesome. Gonna keep the momentum going. It was just a good week for teasers overall. And I think separately of teasers, if survivor pools had have started in, like, week 8, you'd have, like, 90% of leagues still in.

Andrew Pace [00:43:14]:

Like, our league dropped down from, like, 100 and 100 and 100 of entries to, like, 8 people, and it's been at, like, 8 people for 6 weeks now. Yeah. So, like, favorites are crushing it, which is why in week 16, we saw multiple 14 point spreads, 10 point spreads, all that kind of stuff. And we're seeing a little bit of that this week as as well. There is a nice Christmas day teaser. I'm actually not gonna bet it myself. But if that's your thing, you'd wanna jump on the Steelers plus 9 and the Ravens plus a half. They say don't go through 0, but that would be the the play that I would personally take there.

Andrew Pace [00:43:49]:

You could push the Ravens up to the 11 side, or, sorry, the Texans up to the 11 side. But the Texans look fucking terrible. They look like an an absolute shell of a playoff team. The Ravens are obviously a really strong team, in general, and, still very much playing for their division. So, that would be a fun one to take on Christmas, but that's not gonna be the one that I actually recommend. John, is there anything that you like, throughout the whole week in the NFL side?

John Wilson [00:44:21]:

Yeah. I I mean, I I agree with what you just said about about those games. You know, historically, the the road teams have done well on Christmas, and that's not just the NFL. That's, like, every sport. And that's actually true for a lot of major holidays. And, you know, you can you can say whatever you want about it. I think just an anecdote of, like, the people that are at home, the players that are at home thinking about what they're gonna do with their families and stuff or having just come from doing things with their families. Like, I think it's just kind of their their mind isn't there.

John Wilson [00:44:47]:

Like, you know, when you travel, you can kinda just forget about other things in your life, you know, and just focus on what you're there for. I think that's an an anecdote, but it's true. It reminds me of when he do Turkoglu in the in the playoffs or the magic back in the early 2 or 20 tens. He had, like, a baby, and he is, like, home splits for, like, home and away were just awful. Good. He was at home. He's like, I don't sleep at night because I have a it's like a 4 week old baby crying. So it's like, you know, that's a proxy for this, but I think it's kind of just the mode.

John Wilson [00:45:16]:

So I do like the I think the Ravens there this is a this is a potential rematch. Right? So if the Ravens get the 5 seed, this is they'd play the Texans again in the 1st round. So I think they come out and really just try to lay it on them, and make a statement there, and they've got the advantage of being that road team. So I do like the 1 you like the 5a half? Yeah. I just lay the points with them personally. And, like, you know, Tank Dell's gone for the for the Texans. They have just really stumbled to the finish line. That was rough.

John Wilson [00:45:41]:

And they looked devastated, like, emotionally in that game. Right?

Shane Mercer [00:45:43]:

CJ was crying on the sideline. I mean, yeah, that was that was a big hit to the team.

John Wilson [00:45:48]:

They're on a short week after that. I don't I don't I really don't like them. I like to I kinda wanna fade them down the stretch. For for other teaser opportunities, I like the Rams at home against the Cardinals. I think the the Cardinals are just done.

Shane Mercer [00:46:01]:

Yeah.

John Wilson [00:46:02]:

Now the Rams, they just they went out. They win the division. I like them at home in that matchup.

Shane Mercer [00:46:06]:

Is everyone in that division except the Rams done after what after this past week?

Andrew Pace [00:46:13]:

No. No. Seattle can still win the division, but the Rams are in the driver's seat.

John Wilson [00:46:17]:

Yeah. Okay. So the, if the Rams went out, they they they win the division. And if the if Seattle wins out, I believe they win it as well. Like, I think it's I think it's literally gonna come down to that. If they both win this week, it comes down to week 18. Okay. And the Rams host that game.

Shane Mercer [00:46:33]:

Right.

John Wilson [00:46:35]:

So I like I like that one as a teaser. Tampa Bay hosting Carolina at home, awful loss at Dallas. That's I think that's another good teaser spot to get them down to, I believe, 1a half, 2 there. I hate teasing on the road. They have the Colts at minus 7. The only issue with that one is that they're they're going on the road to the Giants who have if you watched any of that Falcons game, the Giants like, if you watch any of the Giants games the last, like, 3 weeks, I mean, there's not a more obvious tank job Yeah. In the last decade than than what they're what they're doing there. I mean, it's it's it's gross, and they should all be fine.

John Wilson [00:47:10]:

But the the Colts, like, I think the Colts, if both the Chargers and the Broncos win on Saturday, the Colts are done. So the Colts are technically still alive, but that could factor in, know, like, they go to they go on the road in New York. They know they're done. Like, do they really care? It's like, I don't know if I wanna tease that spot. But if if if one of Denver Los Angeles loses, then I'd I'm definitely interested in it because they're alive. Right?

Andrew Pace [00:47:34]:

And then I I do wanna jump in quickly here, John. I think this is a really good awareness moment for anyone that is betting on the NFL in the next 2 weeks. The mindset of a team being done or a team competing because they have to win to get in does not equate to value.

John Wilson [00:47:54]:

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:47:55]:

It is so important Good point. To base your bets off of motivation always. That is there's no debate there, but that does not mean it will happen. So if you think that a team, like Arizona doesn't care about beating the Rams once they're already out, you're just simply wrong. Do I like the Rams this week? I love the Rams this week. That doesn't mean that the Rams are going to win. A lot of these division games are Carolina, another really good example. Tampa's playing for their life now after that loss to Dallas.

Shane Mercer [00:48:30]:

And Carolina would love to play spoiler in that situation.

Andrew Pace [00:48:33]:

Yeah. Big time. So I'm not saying don't bet them. I'm not saying they're not good teaser spots. I'm simply saying do not base your rationale for betting. And who was it? I mean, we just saw we just saw the Raiders, win a football game that, you know, took them out of of the number one overall pick. There was a big week 17 or week 18 depending on when it was where it might have been the Bears. I'm not sure where they woulda had the 1st overall.

Andrew Pace [00:48:58]:

The Texans, Bears, something like that. And they gave I I think it must've it was the Texans. And everyone said there's no chance they will win. They have to lose this game to get the 1st overall pick. Players don't care about the 1st overall pick next year. They want to go out there and compete for their contracts, for their ability to land on new teams, for for their pride, their ego. They want to go win. So don't think that underdogs can't get it done this week.

Andrew Pace [00:49:24]:

Sorry, John. Go ahead.

John Wilson [00:49:24]:

Nope. Nope. You're you're a 100% correct. I think a lot of people here like, it's still a good spot if it's a good spot, but a lot of people hear the situation and they think it's, a 5 unit nuclear whale, you know, like I just, I go all in on this game because they have to win and

John Wilson [00:49:38]:

the other team doesn't care, but nuclear whale. Yeah. But no, that happens. It was, it was the what, 4 years ago, the Jags and the it was the Carson Wentz Colts team where the Colts needed to win to get in the playoffs. All they had to do is win. And the Jag it was the Jags that give it that spoiled themselves out of a pick Yep. By beating them. And so, yeah, the players don't care.

John Wilson [00:50:02]:

Now I will say the best way to evaluate this is go look at the injury report for a team. And so when you will go pull up the Giants or the Saints as another great example, they have, like, 30 people listed on their injury report. That is that is management. That is the front office, and that is the coaching staff tanking the team. It's not the players. So go find those things. Same thing in the NBA. Go find the the teams that are listing, like, more than half their roster on the on the injury report, as a way to to get out of attempting to win a game.

Shane Mercer [00:50:35]:

But yeah.

John Wilson [00:50:35]:

So those are good spots. And then the only other the only other spot, I'll mention this week is there's just so many bad games. I just don't even I just wanna stay away from almost every single game this week. But the the the Jets at the Bills, if you're gonna do a a larger teaser, I think getting the Bills, like, as a 10 spot or, like, a 9 spot down in there is is a good one. So, like, you know, don't go through 0 or whatever on all that. But if you're gonna throw in some underdogs like the Steelers on Christmas, and you wanna do, like, get 3 teams at a 9 or 10 point teaser, I think the Bills is a really good one to to put with one of those.

Andrew Pace [00:51:10]:

Alright. So, guys, for my teaser this week, there's a few games that I think really do fit the bill. The first are gonna be the Broncos plus 9a half. I don't know if I can take it. The second is gonna be the Rams. That's my favorite one of the week down to 0. The next one that is kind of obvious to people that I think is a trap that I'm gonna be passing on is gonna be the Dolphins on the road to Cleveland. It's just a cold game with 2 s scares the hell out of me.

Andrew Pace [00:51:35]:

And then the the Packers up to plus 7a half against the Vikings. Now what I'm actually going to bet, I didn't even include the game in it, but I am going with the Ravens and the Rams. 2 pick teaser.

Shane Mercer [00:51:49]:

Love it. Love that Rams pick. Big, big fan of that one. Alright.

Andrew Pace [00:51:53]:

But I think, honestly, any combination of those games, if you wanted to do a a a bigger teaser this week, I'd go Steelers, Ravens, Broncos, Rams, Packers.

Shane Mercer [00:52:06]:

Oh, Packers. Okay. Yep.

Andrew Pace [00:52:10]:

Well, the Packers the Packers, Shane, you're you're a Vikings fan.

Shane Mercer [00:52:13]:

Yeah. And that's gonna be a close game. That's gonna be a close game.

Andrew Pace [00:52:16]:

It's gonna be playoff game. Yep. That game is a playoff game in a lot of ways.

Shane Mercer [00:52:18]:

Big time is it a playoff game. Absolutely.

Andrew Pace [00:52:22]:

Yeah. And and maybe you won't be able to get 7a half on the packers by the time, things kick off. But, yeah, that it makes sense. I'd love to be able to get 8a half instead of 7a half. That would be the way I'd love for it to go.

John Wilson [00:52:32]:

Yeah. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:52:34]:

Alright. Awesome. Anything else, guys?

Andrew Pace [00:52:37]:

Yeah. Shane, did you win your OLG pool last week?

Shane Mercer [00:52:40]:

I Did win my OLG pool last week. That was 2 weeks in a row.

Andrew Pace [00:52:43]:

So you tried to sell me a ticket for 10,000

Shane Mercer [00:52:44]:

I might have tried to sell you a ticket for for $10,000.

Andrew Pace [00:52:46]:

What did you win?

Shane Mercer [00:52:48]:

I won $655. Understood. haha. Like, can we just okay. So the week before that...

Andrew Pace [00:52:57]:

You can't you can't control how much you won.

Shane Mercer [00:52:59]:

I cannot control how much I won.

Andrew Pace [00:53:00]:

That's not your fault.

Shane Mercer [00:53:00]:

No. It's not my fault. It's a total it just speaks to the unknowable nature of the prize, because I I've been playing this for, you know, in my in my 12th season, playing this since 2013. It was a 15 game, card. The previous week that I had won as well was a 12 game card. Both cards had 3 underdogs come through on. K? So you have one where it's 12 games, 3 underdogs won. Another week where you have 15 games, 3 underdogs win.

Shane Mercer [00:53:29]:

You would think that the 15 game week would have fewer winners just because you need to pick more games. Nope. Not even close. Not even close. It was 570 winners or something like that. The previous week had a 149. You know, I I I mean, it's just it just speaks to to to the nature of this prize and then how

Andrew Pace [00:53:49]:

different It also it also goes to show though what I was talking about with survivor pools and things that. Like, a lot of those big favorite parlays are coming through, especially if you could've just said, hey. I don't wanna bet those those 3 dogs. Like, those games you just took them off. Yep. And I'm sure people have done well on some of those big favorite parlays in the last few weeks. For sure. Shane, we started a segment unintentionally last week given that you were going for your 2nd win in a row.

Andrew Pace [00:54:11]:

And I'm gonna call it, don't box it, bet it. Because last week, you gave us your dog of the week. Now it took a $60,000,000 a year man.

Andrew Pace [00:54:24]:

To go down and get injured for it to win, but you won. So how was your OLG pool this past

Shane Mercer [00:54:29]:

I've I had 3 wrong this past week. It was a it was a tough week. It was only a 13 game ticket too. So 3 wrong is definitely, dead. I almost made it through the 1st slate of games if it wasn't for Arizona not completing the comeback. I needed them to make that comeback. I would have made it through the 1 o'clock. So so they put the dagger in on the 1st slate of games.

Shane Mercer [00:54:49]:

I had made it through everything else until that, but then I also got the San Francisco 40 niners wrong. I also got the the Tampa, Buccaneers wrong, which is actually nicer. You know, having one wrong on on a ticket is the absolute fucking worst.

Andrew Pace [00:55:04]:

Did you box the Eagles commandos?

Shane Mercer [00:55:05]:

No I took that commandos straight up, like I had planned on, and, what a game. What a game. I mean, I didn't plan it to go that way, but you know? Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:55:15]:

Don't box it bet it.

Shane Mercer [00:55:17]:

Dont box it, bet it?

Andrew Pace [00:55:17]:

Give us your dog of the week.

Shane Mercer [00:55:18]:

Okay. On the Sunday side so so the card itself is is gonna be a small one, because we have 6 games taking place before Sunday. Mhmm. Which is like, you know yeah. So it's gonna be

Andrew Pace [00:55:31]:

No. No. It doesn't need to be for the OLG card.

Shane Mercer [00:55:33]:

It doesn't need to be okay. So Don't box it. Bet it is the Denver Broncos in Cincinnati. So In Cincinnati. I love those Broncos.

Shane Mercer [00:55:44]:

Sorry, buddy. Those those Broncos are a team that just show up. They wanna win.

Andrew Pace [00:55:48]:

I was so waiting for you to say either the Cardinals or the the Texans.

Shane Mercer [00:55:54]:

Oh, no. Yeah. No. Just no. I like the Denver Broncos. And and on the Sunday, though, if I am looking at at the old g and I'm taking that into account because I'll I'll just be doing that, I love the Browns at home against, against Miami Dolphins. So that that might be one where I consider taking the dog and not box it.

John Wilson [00:56:12]:

I like that one. That's that you know, you're in my

Shane Mercer [00:56:15]:

Yeah. I'm in in your space there.

John Wilson [00:56:17]:

Yeah. Okay. In the garbage bin with this.

Shane Mercer [00:56:19]:

Yeah. Exactly.

Andrew Pace [00:56:20]:

2 of the teams you just brought up played each other last week with the, the Bengals and the Broncos. The sorry. The Bengals and the Browns? Yeah. The Brown actually had a chance in that game despite what it appeared to be.

Shane Mercer [00:56:34]:

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. They had a chance.

Andrew Pace [00:56:35]:

Thompson Robinson was he was atrocious. He was as bad as any quarterback play you could really watch. And I think this is a problem in the NFL in general right now, is we've got these elite quarterbacks. So you could say this is the same of any time, but I think the gap is widened. We've got these elite quarterbacks. I would put Burrow in that list of elite quarterbacks or, like, the great quarterbacks. Right? Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, obviously. List goes list goes on to a certain extent.

Andrew Pace [00:57:01]:

Jared Goff, for god's sakes.

Shane Mercer [00:57:02]:

Lamar Jackson.

Andrew Pace [00:57:03]:

The drop off after that, Lamar Jackson, the drop off after that is unspeakable. And I actually think it's gonna get worse because of the nil deals and the portal and the players not coming up the right way. I think the drop off could continue to get worse. Dorian Thompson Robinson was freaking awful in that game. They moved the ball, and he turned the ball over once they had crossed over half over and over and over again. It was absolutely wild to watch. And I think I don't know if this is a nil thing, but you see it with Kyler Murray, who's definitely not a nil guy. You see it with Caleb Williams.

Andrew Pace [00:57:40]:

It's like your first instinct is not to pass. Your first instinct is to try to scramble to then be able to pass. You don't stand in the pocket and throw. So the ability to scramble and run as a quarterback, they'll call it dual threat and triple threat if you got the the brain for it. Right? So Lamar Jackson's renowned as a triple threat quarterback. Josh Allen is a triple threat quarterback. Right? He has the full package. But these quarterbacks are making the least primary responsibility as a quarterback, their first instinct.

Andrew Pace [00:58:14]:

I have to scramble around the pocket to now be able to pass. Some people will blame the o line, but at the end of the day, you can see clip after clip of these quarterbacks where they're missing guys that are wide open. I don't mean missing the throw. They're not making the throw in the first place because their first priority is trying to dodge, the o line. So, hopefully, Dorian, if he's gonna be starting for you with this dog, play there, plays okay for you. But, yeah, they they they were bad despite the fact that I thought they kept despite the like, separately, the score, they kept up in that football.

Shane Mercer [00:58:50]:

Yeah. I I think it speaks more to the Bengals defense, which is just, you know, like, they they they just haven't played great all season, and, you know, they they'll just keep giving opportunities. They would I think they they got those turnovers given to them, you know, as opposed to earning them. You know what I mean? Right.

John Wilson [00:59:07]:

Yeah. Right.

Shane Mercer [00:59:09]:

Alright. Cool, guys. Anything else? That does it. That does it prior to Christmas.

Shane Mercer [00:59:14]:

There we go.

John Wilson [00:59:15]:

I think you know? Well, if I if I could give maybe one little long shot that I kind of like right now is I like the Rams. You can get them plus 4,000 to win the Super Bowl.

Andrew Pace [00:59:26]:

Wow.

John Wilson [00:59:28]:

It's hard for them to, like, not win the division because they Seattle could just lose to, speaking of terrible team, the Bears, this week, who would really be shocked, honestly. And then the Rams beat the Cardinals in there. They've already won. So they wouldn't even need that last game. But plus 4,000, I mean, McVay Stafford in the NFC is probably the best head coach quarterback combo of a playoff team. You know, you put Campbell, Goff, maybe. Sirianni is negative to me. So even if Hertz is really good, then I I still don't think I think it kinda washes out.

John Wilson [00:59:59]:

But 40 to 1

Shane Mercer [01:00:01]:

I mean, I definitely don't hate it at all. You know, that and this is a team that's that's been there and done that too. Right? So, you know

John Wilson [01:00:10]:

Yeah. The people were you know, 2 months ago, people were talking about them blowing up their team trading everybody. You know?

Andrew Pace [01:00:16]:

We we we brought it up, like, 3 weeks in a row.

Andrew Pace [01:00:19]:

We're like whats this. This they've got everything. They've proven it. They've been unbelievable. I also think Puka Nakua might be the best receiver.

Shane Mercer [01:00:26]:

Oh, he's incredible.

Andrew Pace [01:00:27]:

That, Like, you know, obviously, Ja'Marr Chase, you know, Justin Jefferson, Fantasy Points, and all that comes into the equation. I'm talking about pure route running and the ability to bring down a ball. Yeah. It is unbelievable what he does.

Shane Mercer [01:00:40]:

Break down a ball, break a tackle. He's physical. I mean, you know, it's it's I mean,

John Wilson [01:00:45]:

in the playoffs, when you need when it's one score game as many playoff games are, most playoff games are, when you need that one drive, like Stafford, McVay, Nacua, Kupp, those guys, like Yeah. Kyron Higbee's back. Higbee came back, had a monster TD. He, like, leaped, like, 20 feet to into the end zone. That was so yeah. They're they're firing.

Andrew Pace [01:01:07]:

Yeah. On that note, guys, just because we said Merry Christmas, I think a lot of people at Imply live probably need a bit of a break. You know, I I probably had 2 of the best betting weeks of my life, and they are bookended by 2 of the worst betting weeks of my life. And, it's good to just freaking reset, unplug. You know? Turn the turn the Christmas games off. You know? Yeah. Sure. It might be on in the background or whatever.

Andrew Pace [01:01:32]:

But, you know, to take a much needed break. The NHL's doing that. You know, they have 4 days off here. I love that approach of of just resetting and unplugging. And, and and the whole mentality with betting isn't like bet big to win big. It's have a small amount of money that you don't need for life's necessities and run that into life changing money. Rinse and repeat. So take that approach, guys.

Andrew Pace [01:01:58]:

Have an amazing Christmas with friends and family. Always remember to give back when and where you can. That doesn't mean financially all the time. That could be as simple as picking up a grocery bag for someone that you think could use a hand. So, yeah, take the time to do that stuff, and we'll be back and better than ever. We have one more episode before 2025, but back and better than ever in 2025.

Shane Mercer [01:02:22]:

Great message to end the show on. With that, pace, John, sports bettors around the world till next week. Keep beating those bucks. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download, and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below. And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code BEHINDTHELINES.