Episode 93

With That, The 2024 Season Comes To An End!

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In our 2024 finale, Shane Mercer and Andrew Pace join John Wilson as they dive deep into the critical aspects of timeout management in football and its impact on game outcomes, highlighted by rookie quarterbacks like Caleb Williams and controversial coaching decisions.

They discuss contrasting timeout strategies used by top coaches like Andy Reid and Sean McDermott versus notable missteps by others, including Kevin O'Connell and Zac Taylor. John breaks down the playoff seeding scenarios and the potential for surprising upsets, especially in this week's crucial divisional matchups.

Andrew also discusses strategic betting approaches, including careful selection during NFL Week 18 due to unpredictable motivations, and the different factors affecting live betting. With insights on the NFL playoff picture, potential game outcomes, and betting strategies to maximize your profits, this episode promises to be packed with valuable information to end the 2024 season on a high note.

🔑 Key Topics

00:00 Successful double broadcast of NFL games on Netflix.

04:37 Streaming should auto-skip sports delays efficiently.

07:01 Netflix success with trending content and recommendations.

10:09 Public questions decisions after team losses.

15:52 Faith placed in inexperienced quarterback for clock management.

17:21 Questioning timeout strategy; optimism for Falcons' future.

22:06 Tom Brady's analysis was insightful and essential.

23:19 Previewing NFL week and college football playoffs.

27:02 Week 18 NFL betting unpredictable due to motivations.

29:34 Backups play hard to secure future contracts.

33:27 Teams kneel to ensure playoff berths.

38:46 Coaches' future impacts incentives and motivations.

41:44 Tease bets to favorable odds; successful strategy.

44:40 Decided against boxing Titans Jaguars game.

47:09 Favoring favorites with one underdog in season.

50:25 New voices, exciting conversations, diverse sports bettors.

52:29 Live betting enhances profitability despite pregame losses.

🎞️ Top Quotes & Hooks

Christmas Day Sports Streaming Success: "They pulled off a, a solid double broadcast on Christmas Day with, the the two games there, the Chiefs and, Steelers and, the Ravens Texans games. Both, went off without a hitch on Netflix."
— Shane Mercer [00:01:22 → 00:01:37]

Unsung Heroes of Broadcasting: "The guy sits in a chair for 7 hours straight. He doesn't even get up to go pee."
— Shane Mercer [00:02:52 → 00:02:57]

Skipping for Sports: "Streaming services should automatically skip forward for the user in all circumstances."
— Andrew Pace [00:04:45 → 00:04:51]

Trending Netflix Tactics: "What Netflix did a spectacular job of is people that watch Netflix always want something new."
— Andrew Pace [00:07:12 → 00:07:21]

Cultural Moment: "But putting it on Netflix was in many ways exporting the game to the world in a way that everybody around the world could tune in in an easy way, and get familiar with the game. It made it from from that perspective. Yeah. That was that was a huge win for the NFL and a big win, for Netflix, to, create something perhaps bigger than sports, a a sort of cultural moment, so to speak, which which, you know, is is is huge for for the game, for the league, and and for Netflix itself."
— Shane Mercer [00:08:52 → 00:09:23]

Why Coaches Face Tough Questions After Losses: "The thing about them losing is we know we're gonna get the questions as the public. They're gonna ask, why didn't you use a timeout? They're gonna say, why didn't you do this in these circumstances?"
— Andrew Pace [00:10:29 → 00:10:40]

Perspective on Sports Headlines: "The thriller of the Bengals game was Bengals win OT thriller, when in my opinion, the headline should have been Bengals could have kneeled out and kicked a walk off field goal to win the game and never gone to overtime, but instead, it's they win a thriller."
— Andrew Pace [00:11:39 → 00:11:57]

Zach Taylor's Questionable Decisions: “He lost a fucking Super Bowl because of his stupidity."
— Andrew Pace [00:12:14 → 00:12:18]

Worst Timeout Strategy Ever: "I think that this example between the end of the game and the Falcons not using the time out and the halftime was probably the single worst I've ever seen in football."
— Andrew Pace [00:12:43 → 00:13:27]

Faith in Young Quarterbacks: "And you're putting all of this faith in this in this young quarterback to manage the clock when you're the coach and it's your job to manage the clock."
— Shane Mercer [00:16:23 → 00:16:32]

Timeless Sports Wisdom: "You get a certain amount of fouls in basketball, and you get a certain amount of timeouts. There's no sense in keeping either of them."
— Andrew Pace [00:18:01 → 00:18:06]

Time Management in Football: "You can't ever get time back in the game. You know, once those 20 seconds are gone, those 20 seconds are gone."
— GosuThune [00:19:51 → 00:19:56]

College Football Playoffs: "The games might already be underway or at least one game might have already happened."
— Shane Mercer [00:23:33 → 00:23:36]

Why Timing Your Bets Matters: "And I said, well, did you bet it a week ago? He's like, no."
— GosuThune [00:25:30 → 00:25:34]

Betting Insights: "If you think you know something and you're getting value, the opposite is probably actually true."
— GosuThune [00:26:08 → 00:26:14]

The Underrated Drive of NFL Backups: "A lot of those people aren't aren't gonna be under contract to be on the team next year. Right? Like, they're they're trying to stay in the league, so they can be probably a little more dangerous sometimes."
— GosuThune [00:30:07 → 00:30:07]

Playoff Scenarios in the AFC: "I think if the chargers win and the Steelers lose, they're the 5. And then outside of that, it's basically Denver wins, and they're the 7. And then Miami needs them to lose, and the Bengals need both of them to lose to get the 7."
— GosuThune [00:30:19 → 00:30:31]

The Lengths Teams Will Go for a Tie in Crucial Games: "If ties matter on Sunday, where once the first two possessions are over, which again is a very rare circumstance, the team that can tie to get in kneels out because the risk of fumbling and losing the game would cost them a playoff berth."
— Andrew Pace [00:34:06 → 00:34:24]

High-Stakes NFC Showdown: "The Lions, Vikings to decide the one seed, then the loser gets the 5 seed."
— GosuThune [00:35:27 → 00:36:08]

Coaches' True Incentives in a Losing Season: "Whereas, like, some of these coaches that I think are under contract know they're coming back. The incentives are a little worse for them. Right? Like, they probably wanna try to get a good pick, get a good player, get a get their quarterback or whatever that they want."
— GosuThune [00:39:01 → 00:39:11]

Lions' Season in Trouble: "The Lions have kinda just been trending downward for a while just because of all the defensive injuries and stuff."
— GosuThune [00:39:42 → 00:40:07]

Winning Sports Betting Strategy: "It's just not what I do, but that's something that would make probably a lot of sense, to bet on that side and then, the Viking side of the teasers, to to 9 or 9a half if you can."
— Andrew Pace [00:42:04 → 00:42:15]

Strategic Decisions in Betting: "I had 5 games I was looking at to box, and I can only box 4."
— Shane Mercer [00:44:54 → 00:44:57]

Celebrating the Team Behind the Scenes: "Sabrina, thank you for everything you did over the past year. Without you, this this show certainly wouldn't be what it is."
— Shane Mercer [00:49:39 → 00:49:46]

Exploring New Edges in 2024: "I hope to keep bringing you a lot of new voices, a lot of people in the space who are doing things differently, trying to change the game. Maybe they're they're out there exploring new edges. I look at every conversation as an opportunity to learn and grow, and I think we've had plenty of that over the course of 2024 here on the show with the guests we've had on."
— Shane Mercer [00:50:33 → 00:50:53]

Learning and Growth: "The point of this is to learn from others and grow, and and sort of see what others are doing out there and then let you, the audience, decide what you think is what."
— Shane Mercer [00:51:04 → 00:51:43]

NFL Betting Trends: "It's been, like, the most public heavy, favorite heavy weekend, like, or we are in, like, 30 years."
— GosuThune [00:52:13 → 00:52:19]

The Value of Live Betting: "You might take a hit in a game where things didn’t go your way with one pregame shell fired, but you might be able to fire 3 or 4 or even 10 or 12 shells on that game live that went your way."
— Andrew Pace [00:52:43 → 00:52:48]

High Limits and Fair Play with Pinnacle's Live Betting: "Pinnacle's never gonna cook you. They're never gonna limit you. You can get that money down, and and tons of live markets."
— Shane Mercer [00:53:59 → 00:54:05]

🤔 Q&A

What is the primary topic of discussion in this episode of Behind The Lines?

The primary topic is the use of timeouts in football and how effective timeout management can impact game outcomes.

Why does Shane Mercer emphasize the importance of timeout management, particularly for rookie quarterbacks?

Shane highlights the importance because rookie quarterbacks, like Caleb Williams, can struggle with clock management, which can significantly impact game outcomes and coaching careers, as illustrated by the firing of Eberflus.

Can you name two coaches mentioned who are known for effective timeout management?

Andy Reid and Sean McDermott are praised for their effective timeout management.

What specific game did Kevin O'Connell face criticism for his timeout management?

Kevin O'Connell was criticized for his timeout management during a Vikings game.

How does the podcast view the strategic decision of using timeouts versus clocking the ball?

The podcast debates that using timeouts strategically is crucial and often a better option compared to clocking the ball, a point emphasized as timeouts are a critical resource.

How did Zac Taylor's timeout decisions in a Bengals game come under scrutiny?

Zac Taylor's timeout decisions were criticized via text exchanges between Gosu & Andrew during the episode for poor management that impacted game outcomes.

What betting strategies does Andrew Pace suggest focusing on for the NFL Week 18?

Andrew suggests focusing on games with clear motivations, like Miami needing a win against the Jets, and advises caution with games that have ambiguous motivations, such as the Jags vs. Colts.

How did the podcast view the Lions' performance facing the Vikings, and why?

The podcast noted the Lions' downward trend due to defensive injuries, predicting the game would be high-scoring due to these issues.

What role did Pinnacle play in this podcast episode?

Pinnacle is the sponsor, and the podcast promotes Pinnacle for its live betting offerings, good odds, and high betting limits.

How did the podcast address the significance of Netflix broadcasting NFL games?

The podcast praised Netflix for its successful broadcast of NFL games, attracting 65 million unique viewers on Christmas Day, broadening the global exposure of the NFL.

👋 About The Host & Guests

Shane Mercer is a distinguished sports commentator known for his insightful analysis and charismatic presence on "Behind the Lines" powered by Pinnacle, which is purifying the sports betting industry. Accompanied by the renowned analyst Gosu and co-host Andrew Pace, Shane's expertise has illuminated the gridiron grind and the broader landscape of betting. As they prepare for their final 2024 show, Shane takes a moment to reflect on the past week in the NFL and to acknowledge Netflix for their contributions to sports entertainment. With a career marked by intelligent commentary and passionate delivery, Shane Mercer continues to be a respected voice in sports media.

Andrew Pace is a dedicated sports analyst and betting strategist, with a strong background in statistics and a deep understanding of NFL and college football. Known for dissecting game dynamics, such as timeout management and player motivations, he offers nuanced perspectives that help listeners make informed betting decisions. Andrew's involvement in the sports betting community, including events like BetBash, keeps him connected with industry trends and enhances his analytical prowess. Listeners value Andrew's ability to present complex betting concepts in an accessible way, often supported by personal anecdotes and real-time examples. Committed to responsible betting and continuous learning, Andrew Pace remains a trusted and influential voice in the sports analysis world, contributing significantly to the success of "Behind The Lines."

GosuThune, aka John Wilson, is a seasoned strategist and sports betting analyst, has always been fascinated by the intricate dynamics of game time management. With an acute understanding of football's play clock, Gosu passionately advocates for optimizing timeout usage. He emphasizes the importance of preserving timeouts for critical moments, where they can rectify errors or strategically stop the clock. John often highlights the irreversible nature of lost seconds in a game, advocating for a balanced approach that weighs the risks and rewards of timeout conservation. His insights and analytical prowess have made him a respected figure in the world of sports strategy.

📜 Full Transcript

Welcome [00:00:00]:

You're listening to Behind the Lines, a podcast presented by inplayLIVE and powered by Pinnacle, the number one sports book where winners play and never get limited. Go to pinnacle.com/inplaylive to sign up and get in the game.

Andrew Pace [00:00:16]:

New Text. This is unreal. New Text. To throw the ball three times there is just insane. New Text just injured one of his most important players because he didn't. New Text, not kneeling. New Text, My eyes.

Shane Mercer [00:00:44]:

Hello, and welcome. It's behind the lines powered by Pinnacle purifying the sports betting industry. I'm Shane Pace with us as always. And, again, we've got the great Gosu joining us, John Wilson, with us right off the top for our very last show in 2024. Alright. We'll do a little rewind and a little forecasting, both with the gridiron grind and with the big picture of betting. But first, guys, why don't we start off with the week that was in the NFL, and is kind of just wrapping up? I'm gonna start off by just, giving, Netflix some props. Kudos to them.

Shane Mercer [00:01:22]:

They pulled off a, a solid double broadcast on Christmas Day with, the the two games there, the Chiefs and, Steelers and, the Ravens Texans games. Both, went off without a hitch on Netflix. I tuned in just a little bit here and there as it was Christmas Day, and I've got 3 young ones running around the house. And we were really enjoying Christmas Day as a family, so I didn't watch or bet on a whole lot of football that day. But I did throw it on on Netflix just because I was curious to see how they were doing with it, and it was sort of on in the background, here and there. So if there were any issues, you guys please feel free to raise them. But from everything I saw, I think it looked like they pulled up, pulled it off. And it was much, much better than the Jake Paul, Mike Tyson fight from a technical standpoint, but also even from from an editorial broadcasting standpoint.

Shane Mercer [00:02:15]:

I loved absolutely loved seeing Scott Hanson and Drew Brees in the studio there, that and sort of breaking things down in between the games and sort of when, you know, we might see commercial breaks and that kind of thing. You know, I got a lot of love for Scott Hanson. For people who don't know, this is the guy who anchors the broadcast desk on NFL red zone. He's he's one of my favorite NFL broadcasters out there. I think he does a phenomenal job on red zone. And and what he does, I don't think people understand or give him enough credit for it. The guy sits in a chair for 7 hours straight. He doesn't even get up to go pee.

Shane Mercer [00:02:57]:

He's even talked about that before. Like, he doesn't drink a lot of liquids before NFL red zone begins at at 1 PM EST. He makes sure that he can be there for the entire time. I think I think he's an absolute broadcasting legend. Love Scott Henson. So it was great to see him on the Netflix broadcast and to see him alongside a guy like Drew Brees, I thought was perfect. You know, Drew Brees, one of the legends of our of our QB generation. So I enjoyed that a lot.

Shane Mercer [00:03:26]:

I thought I thought Netflix pulled it off. Did you guys have any issues with Netflix?

Andrew Pace [00:03:29]:

John, did you watch the game on Netflix?

GosuThune [00:03:32]:

Yeah. We had it on, in my in my parents' house. So, yeah, I didn't didn't have any problems with it. I mean, it was all was all fine. It's all good quality.

Andrew Pace [00:03:41]:

It's like kudos to Netflix. It worked. Yep. You know, it's kinda it's kinda funny. It's like, oh, give them credit, guys. The feed works. You know what I mean? Like, fuck. So I threw on a couple different feeds and and actually was tweeting about it and and did some real time, tests and things like that.

Andrew Pace [00:04:02]:

It's interesting. So when I first jumped onto the feed, it was 23 seconds late. And then I refreshed my feed just for the hell of it. And, then the the remainder was about 40 seconds late, and I couldn't get it back to that that 23. I did notice some people online talking about needing to fast forward, like, constantly needing to fast forward. I didn't have that issue. And then midway through maybe, like, the Q3, I was like, oh, I'll just see if I can fast forward, and I was able to hit the plus 10 seconds button once. I think just as a general statement, nothing to do with Netflix.

Andrew Pace [00:04:37]:

When people are watching sports, they don't need to see every single millisecond of the game. Streaming services should automatically skip forward for the user in all circumstances. Now if I'm watching a movie, I don't need it to skip forward if if it needs to buffer or whatever it needs to do. But, like, I remember going to New Jersey, visiting Kenny at his Shore House, and doing a weekend of bedding. And he at the time, he's ditched them. But at the time, he was using DIRECTV. And we had to have all the remotes out, and about every 5 minutes or so, we'd fast forward all the games to keep them up to speed. And it's because they slowly get more and more delayed as time goes on.

Andrew Pace [00:05:24]:

And, again, for sports, no service in the world should you ever have to do that. They should auto skip forward. So, Shane, to your point, one thing I thought that was really freaking cool and I know nothing about sports viewership. I know there's a lot of discussion right now about how the NBA viewership is is down even though Christmas Day was a home run for the NBA. Apparently, it was a absolute home run. But, again, I don't know what numbers are good or bad. Apparently, they had 65,000,000 unique viewers or something like that on the Netflix Christmas. I'm assuming that's really good.

Shane Mercer [00:05:56]:

Yeah. That's that's fantastic. And that was that was sort of throughout the entire day of broadcasting.

Andrew Pace [00:06:03]:

Yeah. And and so there's a couple things that were just sort of interesting. Because, again, we talked about the business of this last week. So I, again, am gonna look at, like, the business aspects of it. I thought it was hugely freaking cool to watch Drew Brees explain the rules of the game to a guy, an international

Shane Mercer [00:06:19]:

That was funny.

Andrew Pace [00:06:20]:

That genuinely wanted to know what the numbers meant. And I just thought that was freaking cool. Just the way he explained it, obviously, we knew the answers to those questions. It was just one of those moments where you're like, That's really freaking cool. Yeah. You feel like people are being brought together in a certain way. So then that's where I'm like, why is Netflix doing this? And I was talking shit about them last week. Like, stay in your lane.

Andrew Pace [00:06:45]:

I'm gonna check myself for that comment. Kudos to the NFL to put themselves on a platform that has people around the world asking about the rules of the game so that they can follow it in. Huge kudos. So

Shane Mercer [00:07:00]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:07:01]:

That's part of the stream issue. Right? Like, I just thought that was so cool to watch. Now from a business standpoint and a viewership standpoint, that makes perfect sense to me. What Netflix did a spectacular job of is people that watch Netflix always want something new. And that day, the number one trending item was Christmas game day or however they worded it, and you automatically click it because you're like, oh, what's everyone doing in the world right now? Like, what reality TV show is everyone talking about? What this, that, or the other is everyone talking about? I wanna be in the know. So then I get home, and it's now Boxing Day, December 26th, and I flick on Netflix to throw on in the background. And sure enough, it says under the continue watching tab is Christmas game day because I I didn't watch all the games, and I I stopped watching the Chiefs game around the time I just said, the middle of Q3. So Netflix is now recommending me to pick off where pick up where I left off like a show, and I am certain this wasn't 65,000,000 people.

Andrew Pace [00:08:08]:

But there is a percentage of those 65,000,000 that then went and finished the game at a later time because of Netflix interface, and I thought again that that was also cool and well done on their behalf. So I'll from just from a streaming standpoint, it's like, hey. They did it. That I don't know how much that kudos gets. I think that's, like, the baseline standard. But separately of that, I I thought they did a good job, by getting it up on their platform and getting unique viewers.

Shane Mercer [00:08:35]:

Ya I'm glad you brought that up because I saw that come up a few times where people, international viewers were asking questions, yeah, about the game and how it works and some very sort of what we would consider pretty elementary questions. But I I that occurred to me, too. It's like I never I never thought about it ahead of time. But putting it on Netflix was in many ways exporting the game to the world in a way that everybody around the world could tune in in an easy way, and get familiar with the game. It made it from from that perspective. Yeah. That was that was a huge win for the NFL and a big win, for Netflix, to, create something perhaps bigger than sports, a a sort of cultural moment, so to speak, which which, you know, is is is huge for for the game, for the league, and and for Netflix itself. So, yeah, I'm glad you brought that up, PACE.

Shane Mercer [00:09:26]:

Thanks for that. Let's talk about, some fails from the week, from the week, from this past. And again, it seems like we come back to this a lot. But our clock management is a major issue for coaches and it's still persisting to be an issue. There were 2 incidents from this past week. One of them came in the Sunday night game, and and I would say it was it was extremely costly for the Atlanta Falcons. Pace, do you wanna set the scene for us with with with how it played out? And then then I can give you, some comments from, Ricky Morris that that he made after the game.

Andrew Pace [00:10:07]:

Okay. I haven't heard about any comments. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:10:08]:

So I'll give you the comment.

Andrew Pace [00:10:09]:

Im super interested in that. So I think the the one of the things just as a general statement, it doesn't matter if it's Nick Sirianni going to overtime last season against the Washington Commandos where he scrapes out the win, or it's the first half of the Atlanta Falcons game, not the not the second half where they lost. The thing about them losing is we know we're gonna get the questions as the public. They're gonna ask, why didn't you use a timeout? They're gonna say, why didn't you do this in these circumstances? But when you get the win or when it didn't specifically lead to a scenario that people view as, like, oh, good good example of this. Steven Goskowskis, missed a PAT in the AFC championship against the Denver Broncos. New England scored a touchdown to tie the game, but they failed on the 2 point conversion. Denver went on to win the Super Bowl.

Andrew Pace [00:11:02]:

Okay? So everyone pointed to Steven Goskowskis, missed the PAT, but he missed the PAT in, like, the Q1. Like, the game has now changed. You've had so much time to adjust to that situation, but that's what people love to do. They love to point to a specific circumstance. So the Falcons 1 is a perfect example of where as the public, whether we're bettors or viewers or fans of the the Falcons, whatever, the question gets asked. What so many people don't see is all the circumstances where the question does not get asked because it ended up winning. Gonna give you an example from last week. The thriller of the Bengals game was Bengals win OT thriller, when in my opinion, the headline should have been Bengals could have kneeled out and kicked a walk off field goal to win the game and never gone to overtime, but instead, it's they win a thriller.

Andrew Pace [00:11:57]:

Not only that, the interview after that game, Zach Taylor gets questioned about the game, and he just praises Joe Burrow. And it's like, we still have a shot at the playoffs, and the headline is so positive when meanwhile, he put his team in a position yet again, because this is not a one off. He lost a fucking Super Bowl because of his stupidity. Yet and lost an, was it the AFC championship? I don't know what it was, but the one of the Chiefs, see, they had that game as well. He's an idiot, and this stuff keeps coming back to bite him. And he was just lucky to scrape this one out. But, again, the headline, a win OT thriller. Now to the Falcons game, the one that you asked me about, that lack of time out being used at the end of the game wasn't even the worst of it.

Andrew Pace [00:12:43]:

They had 3 time outs at the end of the first half. They throw the ball to midfield. There was 108 left on the clock with 3 time outs. The clock is now running. They ended up burning almost 40 seconds between the next two plays, and they went to half with all their timeouts. Yeah. So it's absolutely insane. And I think that that this example between the end of the game and the Falcons not using the time out and the halftime was probably the single worst I've ever seen in football because some of the stuff with end of game stuff like Zach Taylor and some of the examples we've given, we we brought up the Jets and, you know, we brought up some other examples here.

Andrew Pace [00:13:27]:

I genuinely think that they are mistakes that can happen in real time, or they don't fully understand end of game clock management. And I would say that's inexcusable, and it is. But we've just noticed that trend that that is something that we noticed that maybe a lot of people don't. But the time out is a fucking button on Madden that every fucking kid that plays Madden knows how to press the button on their controller to stop the goddamn clock so that you can still score. So the the, like, the the no time out thing, I can't fucking fathom. It's insane. And and the Falcons deserve to lose. I'm glad they did even though I had their money line.

Shane Mercer [00:14:16]:

Yeah. You know? Okay. So, I think this is another case to where they they had the 2 timeouts. They should have used 1. They didn't. They lost, I think, a total of 16 seconds, but they still ended up getting into field call range, Right. Because, they got bailed out with a pass interference. Right.

Shane Mercer [00:14:34]:

Well, it was long. Right. There was there wasn't range enough for their kicker.

GosuThune [00:14:39]:

Yeah. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:14:40]:

Yeah. It was a 56 yarder. I mean, a lot of kickers can make a 56 yarder. Obviously, this guy can't or at least couldn't in that moment. It was way short.

GosuThune [00:14:49]:

But also, like, it's not even the backup kicker thing is like, Koo doesn't even have a good leg, like a deep leg anyway. You know, so they should be used to this scenario where they need to get to like a 50 yard field.

Shane Mercer [00:14:59]:

Yeah. Yeah. Because I firmly believe that coup would have would have eaten. I'd have had the leg to get up there, but he would have missed it. He's just he's just been terrible. Anyway, so here's Raheem Morris after the game. Of course, he gets asked about not using the time out in that situation. And I think that this might speak to some of the mindsets of some of the other coaches when it comes to their relationships with their quarterback.

Shane Mercer [00:15:23]:

So here's what he said. I thought we could get to the line of scrimmage with our operation. There could be a little bit faster there. Trying to save that time out in hindsight could have been a good decision or better decision to take that time out to have the opportunity to move up there. So he's essentially saying, look, You know, I thought we could I thought our team, our squad could have got to the line of scrimmage faster, but, obviously, they they couldn't, and I probably should have used

Andrew Pace [00:15:51]:

It wasn't his last time out!

Shane Mercer [00:15:52]:

It wasn't his last time out. He had 2 time outs, but he could've he'd absolutely could've could've used the one there. But I think and and and I think the last time we talked about this, it was and and you can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think we were talking about a rookie quarterback as well, and putting faith in that rookie quarterback to know what to do in that high pressure moment. And here we have a guy who's making his 2nd start of the season with, with with, Michael Phoenix junior there. And you're putting all of this faith in this in this young quarterback to manage the clock when you're the coach and it's your job to manage the clock. You know, and you're you're basically saying 99 finish No. You're basically just saying that that you're, you know, you're you're you're basically saying, yeah, my quarterbacks got this when there's no reason to believe that they've got this.

Andrew Pace [00:16:46]:

Okay. So, quote, got this means they're still gonna be burning tons of time off the clock.

Shane Mercer [00:16:51]:

Yeah. They're still yeah. It it it would be the difference between, like, 16 seconds and and maybe only losing 8 seconds, 10 seconds.

Andrew Pace [00:16:58]:

Okay. So so let's change the circumstance. Okay? If they don't have any timeouts, they fly up to the line and they clock the ball, and maybe they used up 10, 11 seconds. Yeah. Right? They would have done that. But part of this is they go, we know we have 2 timeouts.

Shane Mercer [00:17:12]:

Yeah. Right? So just use it.

Andrew Pace [00:17:15]:

Okay. And then the other side is, okay, Rookie quarterback. Okay. Caleb Williams. We watch Eberflus get fired right after this.

Shane Mercer [00:17:21]:

Thank you.

Andrew Pace [00:17:21]:

Very similar situation. Right? What about the first half when you had 3? What what what's what were you trying to do there? Were you trying to get up to the line quicker to not burn your 3 timeouts? Do you get some kind of bonus or incentive for taking them into halftime? Wesley, who's a big Falcons fan in our group, he'd he'd messaged me after. He said, aside from the whole thing he's a Falcons fan. He goes, aside from the whole thing, I thought, Michael Michael panics, I don't know why I called him that, looked really good. And and he's very excited about the future of that team because he feels like, you know, they they they have a really young, good quarterback. And then he said, my basketball coach said a rule to us when we were kids growing up. He says, you get a certain amount of fouls in basketball, and you get a certain amount of timeouts. There's no sense in keeping either of them.

Andrew Pace [00:18:06]:

And I was like, what a perfect analogy. Like and and sometimes we're like, why is McVay burning his timeouts and it'll be the end of the game, and he'll have none left? And I go, well, at least he fucking used them. You know what I mean? So now you say rookie quarterback all this shit. What are the odds that Sean McDermott with Josh Allen or Andy Reid with Patrick Mahomes does not use a time out there? Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:18:31]:

Yeah. Really. Right. You know, they're going to use it.

Andrew Pace [00:18:34]:

They're using their time out.

Shane Mercer [00:18:36]:

Andy Reid, a 100% is using his time out. Sean McDermott's done some some silly things, too. I think so. Maybe not.

Andrew Pace [00:18:42]:

But I'm using the best quarterbacks in the league as example.

Shane Mercer [00:18:44]:

Yeah

Andrew Pace [00:18:45]:

It's like you have veteran quarterbacks that are extremely experienced. You're still gonna use them.

Shane Mercer [00:18:49]:

Yeah. Because because it just makes sense to you.

Andrew Pace [00:18:52]:

It wasn't the only time this happened again. So another game where we're just gonna look at here where they're the heroes. Shane, it's your Vikings. And it's the end of the half. What's what's, and this coach is getting the most praise in the NFL.

Shane Mercer [00:19:03]:

Yeah. So 8 and o 8 and o No. No. No. Kevin. Kevin O'Connell.

Andrew Pace [00:19:06]:

Kevin O'Connell. Kevin O'Connell. Same thing. End of the half. He has 3 timeouts. They don't burn a time out, then Starnold takes a sack, and then he has to take them. Like, starts starts use he ended up using them, but he had to. He was, like, forced to.

Andrew Pace [00:19:20]:

And they ended up getting a field goal, but they could've scored a touchdown, and he kept those 3 timeouts. For for what reason? I don't know. Yeah. It's a plague. It's a it's a plague.

GosuThune [00:19:30]:

Yep.

GosuThune [00:19:32]:

You could also I mean, fundamentally, you can always stop the clock late. You can spike the ball, and I I I I know you always wanna have that one time out for, like, you know, in case you botch a snap late or you get sacked and you need to burn it. But, like, when you have more than 1, you can always snap you can always clock the ball, but you can't ever get time back in the game. You know, once those 20 seconds are gone, those 20 seconds are gone. But once you if you use a time out and you don't have it anymore, you can always clock the ball. So it's it's just not people aren't it's not a they're they're not, weighing the risk and the reward of of keeping it.

Andrew Pace [00:20:08]:

So, John, you were not on stream for, Zach Taylor's debacle.

GosuThune [00:20:13]:

No. But I was watching the game. I was watching the game with a good friend who like, she's she's a football fan, but looks like walking through the end of the game like this and me talking out loud about why everything they're doing is so bad. It was just like it was like I was just narrating this awful, like, story to her. It's just like I have too much to to to compute.

Andrew Pace [00:20:35]:

So John's not on stream, and I get a a text. This is all in real time with the Bengals game. Dumb coach. New text, throws and goes out of bounds. New text, can't make it up. I say I'm losing it right now, and I could picture the place. Right? Next next pass was to Ja'Marr Chase. It was incomplete.

Andrew Pace [00:20:57]:

He he text me, incomplete. New text. This is unreal. New text. To throw the ball 3 times there is just insane. New text. Just injured one of his most important players because he didn't. New text, not kneeling.

Andrew Pace [00:21:13]:

New text, my eyes. New text, please lose. The Bengals go on to win. New text, no justice in this one.

GosuThune [00:21:28]:

That sums it up. I'll also, I think in there somewhere, it's something about I'm I'm, like, watching this, and I'm, like, I'm no. I'm texting him, and he I'm, like, a minute delayed at this bar watching this on on whatever, platform they're watching it on. So

Shane Mercer [00:21:42]:

Right. Yeah. Right. Fuck. Well, I I just, to go back to the Vikings there. Yeah. Tom Brady kinda kinda was, you know, questioning that because he was doing the broadcast for that game. Questioning Kevin O'Connell and and the and the time out issue in the in the first half there.

Shane Mercer [00:21:55]:

And then, at the end of the game, though, he said that he's gotta be coach of the year. So Tom Brady lending his, lending his credibility to to that movement, which, I mean, hey. Look what he's done.

Andrew Pace [00:22:06]:

And and that is that is the thing is we see things in coaches that go beyond the wins and losses that are just probably areas of improvement. And I thought Tom Brady absolutely hit the nail on the head because he didn't just say he should have used a timeout. He broke it down completely and analyzed the whole thing, and I thought I couldn't say it any better. He he absolutely nailed it. So I thought it was really great that Tom Brady said that because we're trying to bring awareness to this stuff. Right? I think there needs to be awareness to this stuff. You hope that at some point someone sees something where they go, oh, gee. That was right.

Andrew Pace [00:22:43]:

And that's why I'm trying to bring some awareness to the games where they went on to win so that hopefully people can start to see this, and there is a message that actually gets out to the NFL where there's a time and place where they go, oh, we shouldn't do that anymore. Right? And Tom Brady saying it is the ultimate awareness. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:23:02]:

Yeah. Well, you know, maybe Tom Brady hurt us. You know? I don't know. Maybe it made its way to it. But, yeah, the more the more we talk about it, the more we talk about it, the more the more maybe it'll it'll make its way to the to the ears and the minds of the coaches in the NFL. Who knows? All right. Yeah. Well, that was great to look back.

Shane Mercer [00:23:19]:

But on the show, we love to look ahead. We'll dive into the week ahead in the NFL with our gridiron grind. So we'll do that now. But first, I just want to mention college football playoffs are taking place depending on when you're listening to this. The games might already be underway or at least one game might have already happened. You know, this episode coming out on New Year's Eve, and the games are taking place over the course of New Year's Eve, New Year's Day and then through the week here. So depending on when you're listening, well, will depend on on, you know, what information you've been able to act on. But, John, you broke it all down for us already in last week's episodes.

Shane Mercer [00:23:53]:

If you didn't have a chance to hear that and you do want to hear about some college football, go back. Listen to last week's episode. John broke it all down. John, anything change between now and then?

GosuThune [00:24:04]:

No. I don't think anything's changed. I mean, I think since then, they officially said that Carson Beck's done for the year for Georgia, but I think we already were operating under that assumption anyway. Don't really care. So now everything's pretty much the same, you know? So if you can go back, I guess I can't say go back and listen to it because by the time you listen to this, the games might have already happened anyway. Yeah. But, okay. But now.

Shane Mercer [00:24:26]:

But but no changes. All right. Great. Good to know. And I'm just going to put this out there. After our conversation last week, I did leave our recording, and I did, go and bet Georgia to make the finals and Georgia to win it all because, it that that sounded like some really great advice, John. So I'm cheering for the Bulldogs. Oof.

GosuThune [00:24:45]:

Let's go. Let's go.

Andrew Pace [00:24:46]:

Let's go. Speaking speaking of great advice, John, we're we're pretty good on college football. I mean, I'm looking at the lines. Georgia lines come down a little bit. Everything is pretty much the same as what it was. What's your John, you should drop your line to your buddy about your buddy where you say, well, they're like, well, the line move this much, and you said, well, did you bet it today? Can you give us that quote?

GosuThune [00:25:06]:

Somebody was injured in a game. Right? Or, like, we knew somebody wasn't playing, and the line started moving at, like, you know, 2 hours before the game kicked off. And it it maybe this was an NFL game or maybe this was one of the maybe this was a college football game. I can't remember which one. And, buddy in my group said, like, why is this line moving so hard right now? And I said, well, so and so is out. He said, yeah. But I've known that for a week. And I said, well, did you bet it a week ago? He's like, no.

GosuThune [00:25:34]:

I'm like, well, did you are you betting it right now? He said, yeah. But I guess I will need to wait. I was like, well, there you go. You know? Like, people don't bet early in the week when they hear news. They they wake up on game day and they make a bet. The public. Yes. Yeah.

GosuThune [00:25:49]:

So you know? And there's also this idea that, like, you hear something. So this is you know, that this means that I've got value on this side because this guy's out. Well, guess what? All the people who set the lines or the people who moved the lines already knew this way before you did, and they've already already bet it. And they're not gonna they're not gonna wait until the end. So it's just a good chance that you're if you think you know something and you're getting value, the opposite is probably actually true.

Andrew Pace [00:26:14]:

Right. Right. Right. So, yeah, I guess not a ton of line movement on these lines from last week, to today. There there is movement, but just not a ton of movement. So The

GosuThune [00:26:23]:

the Forks line has come down. The Sun Devil's getting a little bit of love from the the Sharp community, I think. I think I mentioned last week, I felt like that that line was maybe a little too high. Right.

Andrew Pace [00:26:34]:

So Well, it should be exciting regardless. Hopefully, we do have at least one good game because it wasn't that wasn't the case before. So as we get in the weekend 18 of the NFL oh, another teaser win, week 17.

GosuThune [00:26:47]:

Yeah. I don't know.

Andrew Pace [00:26:47]:

Thank you. Was awesome snuck. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And, we're gonna get to you in a second, Shane. I'm taking over it. Here.

Andrew Pace [00:26:55]:

I'm taking over it. We're gonna get to you in a second.

Shane Mercer [00:26:57]:

Sounds good Im ready.

Andrew Pace [00:26:58]:

I have a bone to pick with Shane.

Shane Mercer [00:27:00]:

Bones? Pick them.

Andrew Pace [00:27:02]:

Okay. So week 18 of the NFL is, like, just one of the it's like preseason. You really have to be careful with what you're betting and which games you choose. And in my opinion, what you should do as a live bettor and as a pregame bettor is almost throw the book out the window because of the fact that the motivations can be can be unknown. Some teams love playing that upset role where it's their Super Bowl, and they have nothing to lose. There's no nerves. They just let it rip. They know they're done ready to party, whatever, after the game's over, and they're capable of beating anyone because they are, in fact, NFL teams.

Andrew Pace [00:27:47]:

That's the one side of it. The other side of it is teams that just are done in every way, shape, or form. And then, of course, all the resting that occurs, yes, we have information on that. Yes. I'm sure there are ways to make money from it. But in general, just focus on the games where the motivations are 100% clear, and don't make the motivations the justification to that someone's gonna win or lose. Make that the justification that you are in fact going to be betting on that game. So a really good example, this is Miami playing the Jets.

Andrew Pace [00:28:17]:

Miami needs to win to get in, and they need some help as well.

Andrew Pace [00:28:21]:

But the Jets would love to let it rip in that game in my opinion.

Shane Mercer [00:28:24]:

Divisional game? I mean, of course, they wanna win.

Andrew Pace [00:28:27]:

Yeah. You know, it's been abysmal over there. And and even this Bills game against the Jets this last week, was it Tyrod Taylor that came in and scored 2 touchdowns? I'm not trying to say he's good or whatever, but, like, maybe maybe he does come in and and play a bit of an upset role. I have no idea what's gonna happen there. Aaron Rodgers does fit the bill for a veteran quarterback that might just sit part of the game. Right? And we actually we cashed really nicely on that Jets game. We ended up getting some people got the game total at plus 190. I I got the plus at plus 1.72.

Andrew Pace [00:29:02]:

So, that was a really nice finish for us. Yeah. So I would just I would just take that in into week 18. John, what do we got?

GosuThune [00:29:10]:

Yeah. So, I mean, if we wanna go down kind of the list of maybe games or scenarios that make sense, or or, you know, that that matters or makes sense to wager on, you know, I'm definitely gonna be staying away from, some, you know, like, Jags, Colts. Not gonna be betting the Jags, Colts game. Like, why is that game even gonna be available?

Shane Mercer [00:29:30]:

But another divisional game where both teams are probably gonna try to come out and win.

GosuThune [00:29:34]:

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I don't you know, it's it's it's one of those things where it's like, who knows who's playing for what team and how long they're gonna play and, like, what anyone's mindset is, you know, incentive contract incentives. But I don't know. Sometimes those back the backups for teams, like, that are resting, you know, or maybe in that Jets situation, like, if the Jets end up not playing a bunch of guys or something, like, the all those backups need to play well because they need to get a job somewhere next year. You know what I mean? A lot of those people aren't aren't gonna be under contract to be on the team next year. Right? Like, they're they're trying to stay in the league, so they can be probably a little more dangerous sometimes. I think that's probably under handicapped.

GosuThune [00:30:08]:

But, you know, as far as, like, the AFC goes, I think it's basically the Steelers win. They're the 5 seed, which you definitely want because you definitely wanna play Houston at the 4 spot. Right? So they definitely wanna win that game. I think if the chargers win and the Steelers lose, they're the 5. And then outside of that, it's basically Denver wins, and they're the 7. And then Miami needs them to lose, and the Bengals need both of them to lose to get the 7. Right? So that's kinda how things kinda how things shake out. The NFC John,

Andrew Pace [00:30:34]:

I'm just gonna stop you there because of the I'm just gonna stop you there because of the point you brought up. So are you saying that if the Bengals win on Saturday, the chargers could rest on Sunday?

GosuThune [00:30:50]:

No. The chargers still need to win to get the 5 is my understanding.

Andrew Pace [00:30:56]:

Okay. But if the Steelers have won, they're still playing for something?

GosuThune [00:31:01]:

Oh, the Chargers? No. I think the Chargers would then be locked in the 6, I believe.

Andrew Pace [00:31:06]:

Okay. So this is something that's really important from a teaser standpoint, in my opinion. If the chargers and and this is the thing. The line may go crazy. If the if Pittsburgh, wins, the line may drop to the Raiders may end up being favored in this game.

GosuThune [00:31:23]:

Yeah. Yeah. Very very well could be. So so the Chargers beat the Broncos both times. Right? So they own the I think they own the tiebreak in all these scenarios, and the Steelers own the tiebreak with the Chargers because they beat them. So it's like it's it's Steelers control them their own destiny, and then the chargers are safe from the tiebreak, against the other teams. I believe that that could take that spot.

Andrew Pace [00:31:46]:

Right. Okay. Because if that chargers game matters, I I know I don't. I try to stay away from road teams, but, I did Baltimore minus 5a half on Sunday was one of the the teaser picks I took last week. The chargers minus 5a half this week. If that line is 6a half or less, that would be a teaser leg that I would want, but I'm not gonna officially say that I'm gonna be taking it until I have that information.

GosuThune [00:32:06]:

Yeah. So that it's, you know, the old school way of betting with the if then bets or whatever. Like, it would be an interesting one to do something like that. Like, a lot of most books don't don't do any of that anymore, but, that would be, like, a scenario where where you would do that. Or maybe, like, you wanna bet one thing and then roll it over into another bet on the next day based on the outcome. You know, you could you could do that instead. So Right. But so, yeah, those are the games that matter.

GosuThune [00:32:30]:

And I think those games, like, you know, you said that NFC North or AFC North games are being played on Saturday, so they the charters will know, based on the outcome of that game, whether they they have anything to play for or not.

Andrew Pace [00:32:42]:

And and just a side note, really quickly. Sorry, Shane.

Shane Mercer [00:32:45]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:32:46]:

Games that matter going to overtime, guys, the tie is a huge factor. So we saw this in week 17. Give you a really good example. The Bengals overtime thriller, who did they play again, guys? Broncos. Broncos. If you guys were to go back now and watch the overtime, and I'm I'm referencing, how Sean Payton called plays and what he did, he played in a way where he was going to kneel out to take the tie, but the opportunity didn't present itself. They needed one more first down when they had the ball. So, essentially, in that game, you could've and I'm not talking about the opening possession because I'm gonna bring up the Falcons neck the Falcons Commanders next.

Andrew Pace [00:33:27]:

After the opening possession, you could have bet the Bengals money line and free rolled the bet knowing that the that Denver, provided they didn't just bust through the line, would have kneeled out, and I'm talking about with a certain amount of time left in the game. The same was for the Commandos. If the Commandos against the Falcons had a tied that game, they would have made the playoffs. They scored an opening drive touchdown. Had they not have done that and got the ball punted back to them, so now we're talking about only a few minutes left, they would've worked the ball downfield, and they would have kneeled out in that game. And a lot of public would have been like, what the hell is going on right now? Keep that in mind if ties matter on Sunday, where once the first two possessions are over, which again is a very rare circumstance, the team that can tie to get in kneels out because the risk of fumbling and losing the game would cost them a playoff berth. Just just a side note. Sorry.

Shane Mercer [00:34:25]:

No. No. Good good to know. I'm glad you brought that up, because, yeah, you're gonna you're gonna wanna think about that, especially if some of these games do go to to overtime. I was just gonna make a a note on the on the chargers raiders that, you know, even if the chargers are locked into the 6th spot, like, let's say that they do end up locked in there. I I don't wanna make a presumption that they're definitely going to do something like resting all their players. It's still a divisional game. They probably wanna go into the playoffs with momentum, and the motivation might still be there to win.

Shane Mercer [00:34:54]:

I I don't know. But I I would just me, personally, I would be hesitant to see. I'd really wanna wait for any news right up until game time on that one.

Andrew Pace [00:35:02]:

Yeah. And and on that same note, and I think that's a a really, really good point, just because teams have their starters in doesn't mean they won't come out of the game for the entirety of the Q2 onward, Q3 onward, or all of the Q4. So if you have a bet and you're like, oh my god, and then they come out, don't be surprised.

Shane Mercer [00:35:22]:

Yeah. Yeah. Great great point there. Cool. Alright. Moving on. What other games should we should we be looking at here?

GosuThune [00:35:27]:

Yeah. The so the NFC is obviously like, there's a lot more moving parts of that one. The the big one, obviously, Sunday night, the the Lions, Vikings to decide the one seed, then the loser gets the 5 seed. Right? I think that's pretty much I think it I don't think there's any way around that. I think there's some weird scenario where, like, somehow the Eagles could get it if, like, all these other teams won, like, some crazy combination of something, that I don't really understand. But, I think that that big game basically just decided, and we would know going into that game whether that other crazy scenario was even possible. And then the Rams are they've Rams clinched the division because the the commanders won, which is hilarious. And so they were

Andrew Pace [00:36:09]:

John John, you advised people on this podcast about the Rams to win.

GosuThune [00:36:12]:

We did. Yeah. 10 to 1. And there's a couple more times, after.

Andrew Pace [00:36:15]:

So, no, the the Vikings will not miss the playoffs?

Shane Mercer [00:36:18]:

No. They won't.

Andrew Pace [00:36:21]:

That's betting, folks. That is betting.

GosuThune [00:36:23]:

I have a physical. I should just come rip it up on the Yeah. On the during the podcast.

Andrew Pace [00:36:28]:

A great call.

GosuThune [00:36:29]:

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So the so the Rams are locked in. I think we McVeigh is the kind of guy. Like, he doesn't care whether they're the 3 or the 4 seed. He'd probably just sit everybody anyway. Right? Like, he he's, like, one of those overly zealous, like, when not playing preseason, not playing like, resting in games when you're already in the playoffs, but we'll see.

GosuThune [00:36:45]:

I think if they win, they're the 3 seed. If they lose, they're the they're probably the 4 seed, assuming the Bucks win. Assuming, you know, the Bucks, I think, what are they? 14 and a half point favorites over the 6th.

Shane Mercer [00:36:55]:

Yeah.

GosuThune [00:36:56]:

Yeah. This week. And, the I think the with the Commanders win, they're the 6th, and then the Packers would be the 7, I think, is how that works out. So it's, like, kind of one team controls, like, the destiny in each of these games. So, you know, I think there's probably gonna be some team that upsets, another one that we just aren't we don't we're not gonna see coming. It's, like, maybe it's the maybe it's the Saints somehow. Like, maybe it's, who who are the Packers? The Packers. The Bears.

GosuThune [00:37:26]:

Maybe it's the Bears. Yeah. Maybe the Bears beat them and knocked them to the 7 c. Like, something weird like that's probably gonna happen. I just don't, you know, you could throw some money at all of them. I'd rather just.

Shane Mercer [00:37:36]:

And I mean, every game this week is a divisional game. So you're going to you're going to find those underdogs. I would just love to just come out and beat their divisional rival to end the season.

GosuThune [00:37:45]:

Yeah. And the, you know, the the so the bill the Bills Patriots game is interesting. Right? Because I think the Patriots are in the driver's seat for the for the first pick, and they the the Bills I think they're the Bills are still favored, even though I think they've said that their guys aren't gonna play in that game, on the road at New England. But New England probably wants to lose the game or the management wants to lose the game. So I don't know. What a what a weird game.

Shane Mercer [00:38:13]:

That's a weird one.

Andrew Pace [00:38:15]:

So, we brought this up before, but another really good example this past week of, like, these conspiracies and tanking and all that kind of stuff. Players wanna win. We watched Oakland, sorry, Vegas, give away their bottom seed, and then we just watched the Giants give away their bottom seed. Right? So don't be surprised if a team like the Patriots does in fact win, and fans can't believe it. And it's simple. It's the people that are on the field. They wanna play competitive sports like you said, John. A lot of those guys might be playing for a job the next season.

GosuThune [00:38:46]:

Yeah. Or a coaching few of the keys. A lot of these coaches, they, you know, they, you know, who's I think Antonio Pierce has been talking about getting fired all year or getting fired at the end of the year. Like, does he really care? Like, you know, he like, he probably doesn't care if the Raiders had a good pick. Right? So he's coaching to win these games. Whereas, like, some of these coaches that I think are under contract know they're coming back. The incentives are a little worse for them. Right? Like, they probably wanna try to get a good pick, get a good player, get a get their quarterback or whatever that they want. You know, may mayo people always talk about firing mayo.

GosuThune [00:39:16]:

So, like, does Mayo really wanna lose to get the pick if he's not gonna be the coach there anymore? So yeah. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:39:23]:

Yeah. Good point.

Andrew Pace [00:39:25]:

Good point.

Shane Mercer [00:39:26]:

Alright. Anything anything else on here that that we guys that we that we need to tackle, that we need to talk about? I mean, you know, obviously, the Vikings, the trike game is is the game of the week. They've put it in the Sunday nighter there.

Andrew Pace [00:39:38]:

Do you have any leans there, John?

GosuThune [00:39:42]:

I don't know. I mean, I just the the Lions have kinda just been trending downward for a while just because of all the defensive injuries and stuff. And, like, I felt like for a while, it was overblown, and I do think at first it was overblown. I think we've talked we talked about that one week where they were, like, barely favored it, like, against somebody. Maybe it was Green Bay. I I can't remember. But I feel like they that that was overblown, but then it just kept then their backups got injured. It just kept happening.

GosuThune [00:40:07]:

It kept getting in. Like, they just kind of have been trending downward. So I'm a little bit like, that seems seems like a time to, like, kinda buy low on them after that big and a big emotional win from Minnesota. You know? I don't know. I mean, it seems like a great game to watch. Probably gonna be a ton of points.

Andrew Pace [00:40:23]:

Oh, yeah. Okay, guys. From a teaser standpoint, the only thing I'm gonna look at is games where motivations are not in question. So Bengals Steelers game is a is a good one for a teaser because we know that the motivations are 100% there on both teams. I last week, I talked about if you were gonna do a Christmas one, the stars were aligned for the Steelers and the the Ravens. And I said I'm not taking the Steelers. I just there's something about them. I'm sticking with that with my gut this week.

Andrew Pace [00:40:50]:

So does the Steelers plus 7a half make sense? Absolutely. It does on a teaser. Am I taking it? No. I am not. I do like it though, but I'm gonna pass. Falcons right now are at 8a half. You can get them down to 2a half. Something about Carolina scares me week in, week out, but I just have to trust that they know that they can potentially win the division if the Bucks, win.

Andrew Pace [00:41:13]:

This one's a little bit sketchy because I think they're gonna try and win no matter what. But if they look at the halftime score and the Bucks are up 40 to nothing, that's one where the Falcons could potentially rest some of their guys and keep them healthy for next year. But that is the leg that, makes a lot of sense for me. So Falcons is the first leg. The second leg, I fucking hate it so much because I I just love the Detroit Lions. But, the Vikings plus 9, you just cannot ignore. That might get the plus 9a half. I said this about the commandos on stream last night.

Andrew Pace [00:41:44]:

It's one of these games where if you can get the commandos minus 3, but you can tease it to 9 or 9a half on another book, it's the perfect situation, and that was one of those games where that precisely came into fruition. Yes. It took over time, to get it done, but I'm kind of on board with that. Like, if you can get the Lions at 2a half, that's something that I'm not gonna bet them pregame. It's just not what I do, but that's something that would make probably a lot of sense, to bet on that side and then, the Viking side of the teasers, to to 9 or 9a half if you can. So, 2 pick teasers are available at minus 110pinnacle.comforward/inplaylive. We've been crushing them, so, let's let's keep it going with, a week 18 w. Vikings, plus 9, hopefully, plus 9a half, and, Falcons, minus 2a half.

Shane Mercer [00:42:34]:

There we go. Yeah. Teasers have been on fire if you've been listening, here to the podcast and and tailing those. So, so it's a well done pace with those, awesome stuff there. Alright. You've got you've got some you've got some issues you wanna bring up. Let me have it.

Andrew Pace [00:42:49]:

Oh, well, it's our next segment.

Shane Mercer [00:42:51]:

Oh, yeah. What's what's what's that?

Andrew Pace [00:42:53]:

Don't box it.

Shane Mercer [00:42:54]:

The box of bet it. So here we go.

Andrew Pace [00:42:58]:

Are you how are you in your OLG pool still this week? Well, I shouldn't have to ask that. Of course, you were eliminated because you bet the Browns. You didn't box it.

Shane Mercer [00:43:05]:

That would be incorrect. I am still live as we, head into the Monday nighter. We are, of course, recording this on the Monday, and, I am still live. I've I've made it to Monday night. This is a 10 game week, so, my expectations for the prize are very, very low. We only had 1 underdog win with the with the Giants.

Andrew Pace [00:43:24]:

So So should we switch the segment to don't box it, bet it, but then behind closed doors box it?

Shane Mercer [00:43:29]:

Yeah. Yeah. Maybe. Maybe. That's okay. It was one that I was looking at, you know, thinking, yeah. I should I should, I should probably, just bet this at the time when we recorded on Monday, but things change throughout the week. K? So, I mean, look.

Shane Mercer [00:43:43]:

Am I gonna be beholden to to decisions made on the fly on a Monday? You know, by the time Sunday rolls around and I'm and I'm walking into the convenience store to to, you know, put get my ticket. I mean, you know, decisions gotta be made. And and sometimes you gotta you gotta change things up and, you know, we gotta be flexible in this business. We can't we can't just be tied to something.

Andrew Pace [00:44:05]:

Well, the one thing that I will say is that if you bet the Browns money line and then to what got announced out, you had some great closing line value.

Shane Mercer [00:44:13]:

Yeah. You would have. Yeah. For sure.

Andrew Pace [00:44:15]:

They they look terrible and got crushed.

Shane Mercer [00:44:16]:

Still got crushed.

Andrew Pace [00:44:18]:

You're so you're 1 for 2 on don't box it, bet it. So the new segment, don't box it, bet it, but then box it in the dark.

Shane Mercer [00:44:25]:

Don't box it, bet it, and then box it in the dark. Well, if I'm really going to go that that route, I would say take the Vikings, bet the Vikings, and I'll probably box that later. You know, because I don't want to put my fanship on the line there.

Andrew Pace [00:44:39]:

You you boxed the Giants?

Shane Mercer [00:44:40]:

I boxed. So actually, that was the decision that I had to make, right? I had decided that I was going to box the Browns Dolphins, and I was originally going to ride with the Colts. And I had 5 games I was looking at to box, and I can only box 4. And the change I made actually was to not box the Titans Jaguars, which was, you know, by all accounts, a box worthy game. It looked like an ugly game on the surface. There was no reason to to wanna get involved there. But when I looked at the Colts Giants, I I started to lean the same way. And, I I, I doubt teams on the road when they're playing a nonconference game generally.

Shane Mercer [00:45:25]:

So a nonconference road game for the Colts there. And, so I ended up riding with the Jaguars at home against, a lowly titans team, and I boxed, the the Giants Colts game.

Andrew Pace [00:45:39]:

And since we're recording before Monday Night Football, people will know if you won already. Did you box? You obviously didn't box tonight. You've got the I've got

Shane Mercer [00:45:45]:

the Lions tonight. Yeah. And I will not hedge. Okay. And I will I've I've you know, swear to god, I am not hedging on this one because I don't I think the prize is gonna be so low that a hedge just isn't worth it. I think I think there's a real chance that I that the Lions win tonight, and I maybe just get my $80 back and it becomes like a push on that ticket.

Andrew Pace [00:46:06]:

So, Shane, it's unfortunate that this is week 18 and this is our last segment of a full NFL slate because we're still going to grind

Shane Mercer [00:46:14]:

The playoffs.

Andrew Pace [00:46:15]:

The rest of the college football playoffs and then, obviously, the NFL playoffs we're gonna be talking about from a betting standpoint and, obviously, what's going into these lines. But I would say for next year, given that you are sitting at your potential third win of the season And, again, this is not a value oriented, discussion in in any way, but this is more of like, hey. How can you look square with your sportsbooks? And also considering that you have had a decent amount of success with this. Every single day that you do this, put something on the parlay.

Shane Mercer [00:46:48]:

On the parlay.

Andrew Pace [00:46:50]:

At a reputable sports book like Pinnacle, right, where you're you know, you're getting the best odds and just compare, the payouts throughout the year. And and obviously do it for money that isn't important. Now I would also say don't do it at Pinnacle so that you're getting the, you know, the the butter on a book that actually is better for it. But something to consider for next

Shane Mercer [00:47:09]:

season. Something to to look at for next season as a sort of a thought experiment, as we go as we go through the season. Absolutely. Yeah. Because this is this is one of those weeks where, you know, though I look at it too, and I only we only add the 1 underdog come through, but even that 1 underdog coming through might have been enough to make the payout worth it with all the other favorites that that I took, which would it would have been 6 that I that I had to get right. So 5 favorites and and and 1, and 1 dog there. Or, no, I guess, I wouldn't have taken that dog. So it would have been all favorites.

Andrew Pace [00:47:35]:

That that Colts game would have wiped out a lot of people.

Shane Mercer [00:47:38]:

Yeah. Maybe.

Andrew Pace [00:47:39]:

Because a lot of people wouldn't have boxed that. And you did say you thought you had a 5 figure payout and tried to sell Yes.

Shane Mercer [00:47:45]:

I did. Yeah. Yeah. Like, on menu. Can't blame me for trying.

Andrew Pace [00:47:47]:

Like the the previous one. Right? But there's a chance that this one's bigger than what you think it is.

Shane Mercer [00:47:52]:

There's a there's a there's a chance it's bigger than what I think it is. I think that chance is very low given it's it's only 10 games, but, you know, you never know. You're right. You never know. And and that that's what makes this really that much fun too is that you don't know what the price is. And then, you know, it gives you hope sometimes. And sometimes, like this week, you know, the expectation's very low, and maybe I'll just be really happy with whatever comes through.

Shane Mercer [00:48:11]:

Who knows? Maybe the lion's lose tonight. That's also possible. And I you know, I'm sitting here looking like a like a loser as this as this comes out. So that that's very possible. Whatever. Whatever.

Andrew Pace [00:48:22]:

That's well, there there's no certainty in life, only value or lack thereof. Anyways, guys, great cap off. We did 7.22 units on Saturday on our stream, one of our bigger days of the year. Tons of fun, betting live on on Saturday. And, just a huge shout out and thank you to everyone who listens to the podcast over the last year, and happy new year to everyone.

Shane Mercer [00:48:45]:

Yeah. Very, very, very excited. I'll just give, a big, shout out, pace, to to you and Raj, for this, past year with this podcast, just to sort of go behind the scenes a little bit for people who might not know. Pace and Rodge went to BetBash. They did it on short notice. They sponsored an event. They met a whole bunch of people, and a lot of those people ended up here on the podcast. And that was a big a big win for us on the show.

Shane Mercer [00:49:14]:

It was great to to to meet a lot of those people, and I get a chance to chat with with people for me and and make those connections. So so big shout out to you guys. But there's 2 other people behind the scenes as well that I absolutely have to give a shout out to here at the end of the year. And that is, Sabrina, who has booked us a whole lot of those guests throughout the year, managed, you know, the calendar and got them into the seats for us. So, Sabrina, thank you for everything you did over the past year. Without you, this this show certainly wouldn't be what it is. And Chesto, for those who don't know, Chesto is Pace's brother. He does all of the editing for the show.

Shane Mercer [00:49:52]:

He makes sure it all gets posted on time. So, Chesto, big thank you to you as well for for everything you do. This year was pretty awesome for the show itself. The Pinnacle sponsorship was absolutely incredible. So, again, great job on that, guys. That happened way sooner than I thought it could happen, and it's fantastic. And we hope to keep them aboard as as we go forward into 2025. And, for all of you out there listening, what can you expect in 2025? Well, I hope a lot more of the same.

Shane Mercer [00:50:25]:

And I know that might sound a little bit like, oh, wait. You don't have new exciting stuff for us. Well, I think that this year was full of a lot of new and exciting, and we don't know what's to come. But I hope to keep bringing you a lot of new voices, a lot of people in the space who are doing things differently, trying to change the game. Maybe they're they're out there exploring new edges. I look at every conversation as an opportunity to learn and grow, and I think we've had plenty of that over the course of 2024 here on the show with the guests we've had on. We've had a lot of different people. Some of them sharp sports bettors, some of them not sharp sports bettors, some of them some of them may be portraying themselves as sharp sports bettors, and and I don't know.

Shane Mercer [00:51:04]:

Maybe I leave afterwards with kind of questions about whether they're sharp or not or how sharp they might be. But but, you know, that's not the point of this. The point of this is to learn from others and grow, and and sort of see what others are doing out there and then let you, the audience, decide what you think is what. And and I think, I think we've done a fantastic job of that over the course of the year, and I just look forward to keep to to continuing to do that in in 2025. So, thank you to all of you out there listening. We really appreciate your support. Give us a like, a comment, a subscribe, all those things. John, any parting messages before we go? It's been great to have you, John, here with us doing this gridiron grind.

Shane Mercer [00:51:43]:

So thank you to you for stepping up week in, week out, and and doing it. I know we teased you a little bit here and there when you when you've missed it, but but that's only because we value having you on so much.

GosuThune [00:51:54]:

Yeah. No. I appreciate it. It's been fun, guys. This was like, of all the years to come on and do, like, or try to sharply analyze games, especially in the NFL, it's like, been a hard one because there's been, I think, what, like, only one underdog won this week and stuff. You know? It's like it's not unusual. It's been, like, the most public heavy, favorite heavy weekend, like, or we are in, like, 30 years. So it's been kind of an adventure, but just sitting on those square teasers every week made some nice money.

Shane Mercer [00:52:26]:

There we go.

Andrew Pace [00:52:29]:

Right on. Also, John I think that is a good point to segue into the value of live betting. Right? So, you know, you you you might take a a hit in a game where, you know, things didn't go your way with 1 pregame shell fired. Right? But you might be able to fire 3 or 4 or even 10 or 12 shells on that game live that, went your way. I know we certainly experienced that with, the Georgia Texas game, right, where you had Texas pregame. And it ended up being one of our most profitable games of the entire year even though garbage was thrown on the field, and we had a delay for 30 minutes. But, I know you can attest to that firsthand being a guy that was a pregame pro, still is, but, you know, obviously, your your bankroll has taken you with, I'd say, a a greater, percentage of of units deployed to the the live side of things.

GosuThune [00:53:19]:

Oh, yeah, for sure.

Shane Mercer [00:53:21]:

Yeah. Awesome. Yeah. And, you know, we talk about betting the teasers, betting all things pregame that come up in the grind on Pinnacle, pinnacle.com/inplayLIVE. And yes, they are our sponsors. So of course, we're going to talk about them, but we don't really talk about their live markets. They do have plenty of live markets out there, and you will get the best possible odds for some of those live markets as well. Great limits.

Shane Mercer [00:53:42]:

If limits are an issue for you and you're finding, oh, getting, you know, bets down live is hard. Pinnacle's got great limits for for live betting as well. And, again, you know, you might you might be able to snag something on Pinnacle that that is, perhaps, you know, hanging there or, you know, something that might get you cooked on another book. Pinnacle's never gonna cook you. They're never gonna limit you. You can get that money down, and and tons of live markets. So, so, you know, just gotta mention that because I don't think we give them enough love for their live markets, and they got plenty of them. Alright.

Shane Mercer [00:54:13]:

Well, guys, this has been great. Till next week when we break down the NFL playoffs and hopefully we'll have lots more coming to you in the new year in 2025. But until then, to all of you out there, keep beating those books.

Welcome [00:54:25]:

And with that, the 2024 season comes to an end. Goodnight!


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