Episode 94

Welcome [00:00:00]:

You're listening to Behind the Lines, a podcast presented by inplayLIVE and powered by Pinnacle, the number one sports book where winners play and never get limited. Go to pinnacle.com/inplaylive to sign up and get in the game.

Andrew Pace [00:00:16]:

Give give me the Rams at 40 to 1. Fuck yeah. Like, I'm I'm I'm pumped for that bet. And, of course, every year we talk about something like this, and then we're gonna be sitting here going, oh, the Vikings guy.

Shane Mercer [00:00:30]:

Hello, and welcome to behind the lines, the very first episode of 2025. We are coming into the year powered by Pinnacle, here to purify the sports betting industry. I'm your host, Shane Mercer, as always joined by Andrew Pace, the founder of inplayLIVE, a community of like minded sports bettors dedicated to long term success. We've got the great go suit, John Wilson, joining us off the top to ring in the new year with us here, as we as we kick off our 1st episode of 2025. On today's show, DK's subscription service.

Shane Mercer [00:01:18]:

It's Black Monday in the NFL, and it is playoffs, baby. The gridiron grind coming at you in just a little bit. But, guys, first, I do wanna kick off our show here with this, piece of news coming from DraftKings that I think is kind of interesting. It's changing the game a little bit in the sports betting landscape. We'll see how it plays out over the long term. Right now, it's just a trial. But let me, let me give everybody out there the details. Alright.

Shane Mercer [00:01:46]:

DraftKings has launched a trial run of a subscription service. It's only available in New York at the moment. It's called DraftKings Sportsbook Plus. So you can pay $20 a month to have unlimited parlay boosts. So these parlay boosts, how it works, it's a 10% boost for 2 legs. And as you add legs, it goes up and up and up. The boost increases all the way to a 100% once you get to an 11 leg parlay. DK says it was designed to offer, customers an enhanced fan experience, creating more excitement and value to our extensive parlay offering.

Shane Mercer [00:02:31]:

Anybody out there who's used DraftKings already has seen this before with the, profit boost for parlays, but now, basically, you can pay $20 a month to have, to have that perk available unlimited. You can do it all the time. What do you guys think of this idea of a sportsbook having a subscription service?

GosuThune [00:02:55]:

I guess, like, I I have just so many questions. I mean, I think this is the first I've heard about it. To me, it's like of the idea that there's a flat fee is interesting because if you're, like, a $20 bettor, you're basically paying 1 unit to have a chance to win however many more units. But if you're, like, a $1,000 bettor paying $20 to be able to boost, like, bets that you think you have an edge on seems like an insane proposition. And I just wonder, like, how, you know, who and also, like, the who's going to pay for it? It's gonna be the people who have the the ability to bet 1,000 of dollars probably over the person who's betting $20 at a time. Right? They're more likely to do something like that. So I don't know. Seems like a bad move for DraftKings, I guess, where they're just trying to make people bet more parlays, but I don't I don't know.

GosuThune [00:03:48]:

It seems like you have a really, high volume, high dollar sharp bettors could could get a lot of free money off them in this way. But

Andrew Pace [00:03:57]:

Well, Shane, do they allow same game parlays as a leg.

Shane Mercer [00:04:00]:

Yes. They do. They they typically will allow the same game parlay. Oftentimes, the same game parlay could be considered one leg, though. So so sometimes they do

Andrew Pace [00:04:12]:

Oh, okay. So I'm not boosting a same game parlay a 100% if I put 11 legs on it.

Shane Mercer [00:04:17]:

If you did one same game parlay and you put 11 legs from the same game on it, I think that would count.

Andrew Pace [00:04:25]:

If if that can't be the case, the edge would just be tremendous to the people that know what they're doing.

Shane Mercer [00:04:32]:

Yeah. That's a good question. Do they allow it for the same game like, 11 legs on the same game? I'm I'm not a 100% sure, but I I I yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:04:42]:

Right. I I would have to assume no if the answer to that is yes. Like, there's already a team teams out there doing this. They're just gonna be like, oh my god. Now it's it's interesting. So there's the business side of things where you go, okay. DraftKings still hasn't you know, basically, they have turned a profitable quarter, but they're not, they're not, like, a profitable company right now when you look at their stock. So they're trying to find creative new ways to obviously encourage parlays while boosting revenue.

Andrew Pace [00:05:11]:

And then they look at their edge and how much they're making in that area, and they go, oh, we can boost these bets, and obviously that we we can still turn a profit based on our numbers. But I think this opens the door to a whole different type of bettor coming in and taking advantage. Right? So, like, there'll be some pretty prominent and long standing offshores that won't even allow you to parlay pregame tennis. Like, it doesn't work on their site. It says these types of events cannot be combined. And the reason for it is because in major tennis, as we actually head into the Australian Open here, major tennis tournaments data on favorites once you go to that 5th set, actually creates a theoretical edge on some of these crazy ass, big favorites, number 1, but those edges compound with parlays. So when you take some of these boosts from these sportsbooks that do offer them for tennis, it can be a really great way to make profit, from these books. So they're they are going to attract a Parlay customer that they don't even know exists because they haven't exposed themselves to that type of risk yet doing this.

Andrew Pace [00:06:27]:

So this could hurt them a little bit. Now the other side of it is, can I, as a Sharp player, look square by subscribing to this thing? And and how like, since it's a trial for them, how long does my leash grow being that player in their ecosystem? I I think there's I think there's a player that's gonna hit them really hard with this. And I I don't mean one. I mean, there's a type of player that's really gonna come in and do well with this, subscription. And, if I was in New York, I would be exploring this and looking at as many angles as I possibly could. And if I'm not in New York, you could talk to the people that are and work with them, potentially, on on how you can exploit this. Now I think fundamentally speaking, we're gonna go, oh, 11 leg parlay. It's a sucker's bet.

Andrew Pace [00:07:24]:

Not always. Right? Those edges can compound and, you know, there's there's ways to scrape money here. We had one of the things we've talked about quite a bit this season is teasers. Right? There there's a time and a place for those things, and, there's a time and a place for even favorites in the NFL, if you're getting a a 100% boost in certain circumstances. Shane, you've strung some games together this season. I might have strung a few together. Yeah. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:07:50]:

You know?

Shane Mercer [00:07:50]:

Yeah. I do have to mention something, though, that that maybe is getting missed here, that I didn't, outline right off the top in all the details there is that each leg, can't be shorter odds than minus 500. So so just just something that, you know, I I do think you're absolutely right that there's probably a way to take advantage of it, but but that is a caveat in there. So you can't go, you know, you can't have a minus 1,000 favorite in that parlay.

Andrew Pace [00:08:16]:

Well, you could. It's just that leg wouldn't provide a boost.

Shane Mercer [00:08:19]:

Yeah. You wouldn't you wouldn't get the added boost because of it.

Andrew Pace [00:08:22]:

Well, you know what, though? I think it brings up potentially a bigger discussion, and that is membership tiers with sportsbooks potentially being something that could be uncovered down the road. You know, do some people pay for them? Do some people get get them through a VIP status where the membership is comped? Just that whole avenue. You know, we've obviously talked quite a bit on this podcast, especially last year, about BetVision, and how you're able to watch the game when you've placed a bet or you have money in your account. Do memberships start, you know, having access to that in some capacity? I know for me personally, I'll use BetVictor or Bet 365 to watch, NFL with BetVision. If you were to have to and, you know, let's be honest. Those are limited accounts that I'm using, to watch the games. But if they said, hey. There's a membership that allows you to access the games, through their site where, you know, you don't have to bet on the game or whatever.

Andrew Pace [00:09:26]:

I would obviously, be a subscriber to that. I know, John, you would too because you're always going through your limited accounts and going like, what am I betting a dollar?

GosuThune [00:09:35]:

Betting a dollar. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:09:36]:

Yeah. Yeah. To watch this game. Right? So, you know, that that just brings up a whole other discussion and potential revenue model. Now I have no understanding of this. When it comes to TV rights, like, there's a reason why we watch, Thursday Night Football and Amazon Prime. Why is it that BetVision has, like, the betting rights for being able to produce the games and us to be able to watch them. And you can watch the NHL on Bet 365 in China, but you can't watch the NHL on Bet 365 in Canada.

Andrew Pace [00:10:09]:

But you can watch European hockey. Right? So, like, how all of the broadcasting fits into this, and if betting is I don't wanna say a loophole, but an area where you go, okay. There are rights that allow for us to watch the games through their platform. Could that become a membership model? And, god, I I would be at the front of the line for that.

Shane Mercer [00:10:27]:

Yeah. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out over the long term because, you know, legacy broadcast is is slowly fading away and dying. We know this. You know, everybody talks about it, all the time. But, it is it is sort of hanging on and clasping to the rights that they do have, because I know, like, for myself, I have, I I've got, the NBA. I forgot what they call it, but what the actual league calls it. Right? That allows you to watch league pass. Thank you.

Shane Mercer [00:10:53]:

So I've got NBA League Pass, and I know when I go to use NBA League Pass, if the game is actually on TV, like, on on a on TSN here in Canada or or Sportsnet, I can't watch it on league paths. You know, I've gotta watch it on on the legacy broadcast channel. And and so, you know, I I think over this is just me sort of, hypothesizing, but I think over time, the legacy broadcasters are slowly probably gonna end up either being forced to relinquish those rights or lose those rights to streamers, like like, we're sort of starting to see. And and, yeah, it'll sort of be interesting to see how the sportsbooks can can kind of capitalize on that, and and perhaps, you know, pace like you're suggesting, offer, membership, you know, fees, you know, to be able to watch those those games. And and maybe you pay to to belong to the sportsbook, in addition to betting at the sportsbook, like, what DraftKings is sort of trialing here. And when it comes to taking advantage of it, though, PACE, and, you know, them sort of exposing themselves. I I just think that their their algorithms are only getting better and better at identifying those sharp players, and and they'll just boot them. You know, you go out, you go in there, you win a couple of of, you know, 100% boosted parlays, where you did compound the edge.

Shane Mercer [00:12:13]:

You know, they're gonna they're gonna catch on to that pretty quickly, and I and you're gonna get you're gonna get shown the door real fast, I think.

Andrew Pace [00:12:20]:

But but I agree with you, but I think there might be a little window here that if you're in New York, you could really take advantage of it. During this trial.

Shane Mercer [00:12:25]:

Yeah. 100%. Because, you know, yeah, they they wanna promote it. So, yeah, I think I think you're absolutely right there. It'll be interesting to see if other sportsbooks do follow suit where they start offering, you know, some kind of of paid subscription service, and and whether that means you're accessing boosts or or other, perks or inducements, or, you know, you're you're doing it to to, you know, be able to watch games. It'll it'll be interesting to see, but I I definitely think that this that this is gonna sort of open the door to to that kind of, experimentation from other from other books out there.

Andrew Pace [00:13:01]:

Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely.

Shane Mercer [00:13:02]:

Which is kind of cool, but but at the same time, I guess, we'll we'll see how it plays out. Alright, guys. Moving on into the sort of the the big news in, the sports betting world because, of course, the sports betting world at least here in North America is very much dominated by the NFL. And that that's a big reason why we do the gridiron grind, and we are gonna get to that in in a little bit. But first, guys, we are recording this on what is known as Black Monday. The day that NFL coaches lose their jobs. And for many out there, it also presents opportunity to perhaps slide into a role. So, I'll break down what we know so far.

Shane Mercer [00:13:38]:

And, of course, by Wednesday, when this episode comes out, I'm sure some of this will be dated or things will have changed or more people will have lost their jobs or some people might get hired. But here's what we know so far. Doug Peterson is out as the Jacksonville Jaguars, head coach. They have let him go. Jared Mayo is out in New England. They let him go on Sunday, after, they beat the Bills. The the Patriots beating the Bills in a in a bit of an upset even though the Bills didn't didn't play, their their, starters for the most part. We also know that the New York Jets do not intend to continue with, Jeff Ulbrich, who has been the interim head coach after they fired Robert Saleh, mid season.

Shane Mercer [00:14:20]:

The Jets are actively interviewing. I've seen Rex Ryan's name at the top of the list for the coaches that they're pursuing, which would be interesting. A little sort of, a blast from the past there. The New Orleans Saints need to find a coach. They're also, they ditched their coach Dennis Allen mid season as well. Darren Rizzi took over, but they're looking for someone else. So he's not gonna be there to stay. I saw a name thrown around Stanford's head coach, David Shaw, that the Saints are possibly looking at.

Shane Mercer [00:14:49]:

Perhaps that name, means something to you, John. I don't know much about the guy at all. The Chicago Bears got rid of Matt Eberflus mid season after after a terrible debacle that we talked about here on this podcast. So they're looking for a replacement. The Seahawks, they fired offensive coordinator Ryan Grub. The Bengals fired their defensive coordinator Lou and Arumio, and, a couple of other, head coach names on the chalk chopping block that I've seen, sort of put out there. Like, maybe they could lose their jobs. Mike McCarthy at the Dallas Cowboys and Antonio Pierce with the, Las Vegas Raiders.

Shane Mercer [00:15:28]:

Alright, guys. What what do we think? John, I'm gonna turn it over to you, first here. What do you think on some of these moves? Things shake shake shaking out. What do you think we should be paying most attention to in this space?

GosuThune [00:15:43]:

Yeah. I mean, I don't think anything really surprising with some of these firings. I think a lot of those, you know if people were questioning whether Doug would have even made it back from London, you know, a couple months ago. Right? So we're getting we were actually kinda surprised that he they he lasted this long. The Mayo firing, I think everybody kind of been talking about that for a while. I think it seemed kind of obvious, that that was that was gonna end up happening. Wondering if if Vrabel talking to the Jets is really just a play to scare Craft into hiring him for that job even though he passed on him last year. So that's probably that's, like, the first thing I thought of there is even when he was interviewing with the Jets, I thought maybe that that's what he was what his goal was.

GosuThune [00:16:24]:

So I I guess I'm not really shocked by any of those things. I I I would just like to see more players, coaches, and, like, football guys being head coaches again. I think we just I think the whole whiz kid, like, o c guy that that's become a head coach like, Mike McDaniel. Like, I I think I think that stuff just kinda run its course. You know, there's McVay is just kind of a different animal from though that group, and so is Shanahan. Shanahan's been around football his whole life with his dad. Right? Hall of fame coach. So, I just I think those guys are kind of different, whereas, you know, we have a sour relationship with the floor in our group, up in Green Bay from that same tree, you know, just kind of tired of those guys.

GosuThune [00:17:08]:

I would like to see a lot of those guys move on. And let's just go back to football guys that make football decisions during a game. Like, punting the football on 4th and 5 from the 50 and, you know, like, all that stuff. Like, let's just I want more predictability back in the league. I find myself every Sunday saying, well, I just don't think I can bet this game, or I just don't think, you know, this game, I I don't it has to be a stay away. I'd like to get more games back that I feel confident betting and knowing what decisions are gonna get made. You know? So that's kind of the angle I'm looking forward to and seeing who these, these next head coaches are gonna be.

Andrew Pace [00:17:43]:

Well, I think you brought something up there kind of in the discussion, and we've just come off of this incentives week.

Shane Mercer [00:17:49]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:17:49]:

And the incentives are, like, the discussion of incentives and these they have to win and they have to lose type things are so rampant in the betting space. It's it's almost it's almost a little bit toxic. Like, it's it's like guys, you know, it's a football game where, like, number 1, anything can happen. And number 2, because of this sort of incentive or or whatever it is, the narrative doesn't mean that it's going to happen. So, like, it's a really good thing to put in your back pocket as you head into week 17 week 18 next year and for the rest of your life. Do I want to know about those incentives? There was part of me last week where I was like, if someone fucking brings up another incentive, I swear to god, I don't wanna even know or hear about it anymore because it's become the entire basis and rationale for expected value. Nothing else goes into the discussion. Like, talking about the Bucks with Mike Evans, which, by the way, is the best evidence of how they actually do care and the incentives do matter and that there is validity to potentially having value behind them, that being the single greatest sort of evidence of it.

Andrew Pace [00:19:07]:

He didn't cover his pregame yards, yet everyone in the world was on that bet because of the incentive. And they instead of kneeling out, they give him the ball. But this is the the point. That was, like, probably the most bet or biggest example from this previous week, and they needed to win the game above everything. If they're in a situation where they can get him his incentive, they will, but that is secondary to making the playoffs. Right? So there's a lot of sort of narratives that float float around. This is now year after year after year. This is not just one circumstance.

Andrew Pace [00:19:49]:

We've seen it with 3 separate teams in this season alone where they won a football game to lose the 1st overall pick, and people think that they cannot win the game. And it's, again, it's not like I'm pulling a rabbit out of a hat. I can there's 3 examples this year. There's multiple from previous seasons as well. So a lot of this stuff, in these narratives, I think, actually go hand in hand with the coaching discussion because, John, you mentioned it. It's It's like, Mayo's getting fired, so don't be surprised if the Patriots actually go try and win. He doesn't really owe them anything. He's not trying to get them the 1st overall pick, and then there's also potentially the logic that the Bills didn't wanna give the Patriots the 1st overall pick.

Andrew Pace [00:20:31]:

You could kind of see at the end of the game, I think they handed the ball off a couple times down one score. Like, they McDermott.

GosuThune [00:20:39]:

Yes. Use the whole clock.

Andrew Pace [00:20:40]:

They sort of threaded this needle of making it look like they tried to score when they didn't, and then, of course, they punted. They didn't go on 4th down. So, like, you know, there I've watched that, and I was like, he very comfortably and casually made sure New England didn't get the 1st overall pick at the end of the game. Now that narrative in and of itself, I don't believe. I just I think they went out and played football and probably tried to win, but once they were down late, he went, I'm not trying to win this thing. Right? So, yeah, with respect to the coaching, I I echo John's sentiment there. I I couldn't be more excited for Vrabel to be back in the league. Those are the guys that I want.

Andrew Pace [00:21:21]:

Dan Campbell fits the bill, John, for, like, a, quote, football guy, and he's a fucking psycho. He is a psycho. The things I'm watching him do, and I I love these lions. I really do, and I think a lot of people do. People are saying things online. Like, they they Dan Campbell, they wish they were playing with Dan Campbell. Other players are hinting that they wish they were on the team. People are saying they wish he was their dad instead of their actual fathers, and I get it.

Andrew Pace [00:21:48]:

I get it. He's so motivating. He's so inspiring. His play calling cost them the NFC championship last year. That game against the Vikings was a fucking statement game from the Lions. They looked unbelievable. But in key moments, he did some things and turned the ball over 2 separate times. And I'm not talking about, like, oh, a set of Dan's walking out there with his big set of knots going on 4th and 10.

Andrew Pace [00:22:15]:

I'm talking about analytical scenarios where, yeah, you want a football guy making the right decision, but he's doing things that don't make sense, like throwing a bomb on 4th and 1 inch. It is 1 inch to gain, and he's throwing a bomb try he's always trying to trick you. But when you're always trying to trick someone, you start to become predictable. They drew the Vikings offside on 4th and 2 when if he had have kicked a field goal, he would have gone up 3 scores where the Vikings couldn't statistically win the game. It was impossible. Whereas if he turned it over on downs, the Vikings statistically could have still win the game. Now I would hope that he wasn't snapping that football, but I think most people would think that he actually would have snapped that football. So I want the football guys in the league.

Andrew Pace [00:23:04]:

I think Dan's nuts. I'm excited for Vrabel. The league needs a real coaching shakeup, and I think, yeah, the whole the whole young kid coming in with some new analytical type thing has a place in the league. But at the end of the day, you need someone in charge that understands the game beyond the analytics because sometimes these analytics are are not factoring in the situation and the intensity of the situation. Yeah. Yeah. That's that's kind of my stance.

Shane Mercer [00:23:33]:

There's there's some intangibles there that that need to be factored in, and I'm glad you brought up Dan Campbell because I think he's one of those guys who who creates intangibles perhaps, and and certainly knows how to how to feel them, while he's out there. I think, you know, because because you brought up that game. I think a guy like Dan Campbell with his kind of wild man mentality is able to rope other coaches into playing his wild kind of style game, which is we we watched it last night. Kevin O'Connell going for it on 4th down and 4th and 5 or whatever it was, 4th and 3. It's like, kick your freaking field goal and take the points and let's move on. Especially in the first half there where it was a tight game, it was a close game. But, no, now he's going for it. You know? Because I think he's thinking because Dan's gonna go for it.

Shane Mercer [00:24:21]:

You know? Anyway, he's put in this situation and becomes like this this weird sort of of of game of chicken, I guess, in in some ways. And, anyway, you know, that that was a bit frustrating for me to kinda go out there and see because I think that, you know, I I would have liked to see to see my guy keep his head perhaps a little bit more than than

Andrew Pace [00:24:41]:

Yeah. Well, on that note though, Shane, I I think so we've got a full season regular season behind us of the the NFL. And, obviously, at the start of the season, there was just one thing everyone was talking about, the new dynamic kickoff. Right? And a big reason for these turnovers is something we we touched on is leaving your opponent at the 3, 4, 5, or 6 Yeah. Instead of them getting it out to the 30 on a on a failed attempt. Now in 2020 in last season, not this season, there's 4 kickback touchdowns. I'm just trying to think in my head. I don't have the answer.

Andrew Pace [00:25:18]:

I I know I've seen 2. I know I've seen 2. So, like, are there more kick returns, and and are there is there more scoring created from it? I know there's more scoring created from teams starting with better field position. We've seen countless examples of where someone just scored, and all of a sudden you're like, oh my god. They're in range, and it's like one play, and it's not a bomb. They started the drive at the 35 or the 30, and they they quickly got a 15, 20 yard play and bang. Maybe a penalty tacked on at the end. And it's like, oh my god.

Andrew Pace [00:25:50]:

They're they're downfield really quickly. So I think the coaching decision discussion also brings up that whole rule this that whole rule discussion with the season behind us and go, what was the upside? What was the benefit? What role is that playing in coaches' decisions, on some of these 4th down, you know, situations? And is there a world where we we go back to to an extent to to what we had? I don't know I don't know the answer to that, but, I I agree. I thought Kevin O'Connell was baited into trying to be Dan Campbell. And that reminds me of politics where, like, you know, you have someone pretending to be the the leader of the other party, knowing that they're just gonna lose a different version of that same person. And, it it it it reminded me of it. And I think Kevin O'Connell got, like, you know, coach of the year. I think he got completely outcoached in that game because it was a tight game heading into halftime. And then whenever you see a team blow out their opponent and it isn't on a splash player fluke, usually, that's gonna be coaching adjustments that were made.

Shane Mercer [00:26:54]:

Yeah. And and that that that's definitely, I think, what we saw. Alright. Well, I think that that wraps it up for coaching. Why don't we get into the gridiron grind? And we'll kick it off with the college football playoffs because we just we're now heading into the semifinal. Is that right? Semifinal?

Andrew Pace [00:27:14]:

Yeah. I love how Shane doesn't fully Shane's an NFL guy. He's like, I don't fully know

Shane Mercer [00:27:19]:

What are we doing?

Andrew Pace [00:27:20]:

What are we doing with college football?

Shane Mercer [00:27:21]:

That's why that's why I turned it over to you guys. Guys. I know you guys know what you're doing. I know that my future on Georgia lost. That's about all I know. I was like, these guys are out. They got they got they got it handed to them too. Right? By by Notre Dame?

GosuThune [00:27:35]:

Well, they if you I mean, the advanced like, what if you look at the 2nd order box score, they they actually had a plus win probability. So, like, if they played that same game with the same stats a 100 times, they probably win, like, 65.

Andrew Pace [00:27:48]:

There's a key there's a key moment in the game where, Kirby Smart Kirby Smart was outsmarted. Straight up. Yeah. Like, straight up.

Shane Mercer [00:27:55]:

It's bad.

Andrew Pace [00:27:55]:

He was outsmarted. It cost them the game.

GosuThune [00:27:58]:

Well, did you know the I didn't realize. So the the thing with his dad, because his dad passed away, like, that next day, and he had from complications of a surgery where he had fallen on New Year's Eve and broke his hip, and then he had surgery the next day. And I think Kirby, he was in intensive care because of complications from the surgery. I think Kirby knew that day that he probably wasn't going to make, so I didn't even, I definitely wouldn't have thought about betting Georgia, or I would have tried to probably hedge my ticket or something if I had known that situation, but nobody it wasn't public, so nobody knew that. So, like, I thought I think his clearly, after knowing that in retrospect and going back and thinking about that game, I think it was clear as his mind was somewhere else. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:28:40]:

There was a couple times during the game too where he was, like, on the sideline, and I could see what he was complaining to to the officials about. And I was looking at it going like, Kirby, you're not right. Like, it it it he was he was he he got out he got he got out coach, which it makes sense, in the spot. But, yeah, I mean, Georgia multiple times had, like, control of the situation in the game and was outgaining and outplaying, and they just fucked it up over and over and over again. But, you know, that wasn't even the real upset. It would the real upset was losing the Sun Devils from the rest of the the tournament because he looked fucking electric in that Q4. It was that the game was just so much fun. It was finally finally awesome to watch, like, a competitive, college football, competitive college football game in these playoffs because that was definitely the the best the best of all of them.

Andrew Pace [00:29:32]:

4th and 13, and they're in the next round, And they picked on that same safety twice, the poor kid. But, yeah, that was electric. Anyways, John, we got Notre Dame as a favorite to Penn State minus 2a half. What are your thoughts on this one?

GosuThune [00:29:50]:

Yeah. So, interesting on both of these games, I the line opened exactly what I make it, and then it moved toward the favorite. So kind of just tells you, like, where the public money's like, where the where the money is coming in on these games. So I made it minus I make it minus 1a half for Notre Dame. I actually think that the Penn State offense, with their run game has has probably the biggest matchup advantage in this game, just in terms of you can you can really run on Notre Dame, but Georgia hasn't really their offensive line was kind of bullied in that game by the Notre Dame front, and that's just been a weak spot for them all year. They haven't had the depth, and they've lost a couple of guys on that offensive line, whereas Penn State is is basically fully healthy in that area. So I actually think they have kind of like, when I look at the matchup, that's really the only, big time advantage that I see there. Otherwise, I think these t 2 teams are are very close.

GosuThune [00:30:44]:

But I think it's gonna be a very conservative game. I think it's probably a good under game. I think it's there's gonna be a lot of moving clock. Notre Dame would rather have Riley Leonard run than throw when we saw that. I think he only completed, like, 8 passes in that Georgia game or something. I mean, they they they gained less. I think they only gained, like, a 160 yards or something in that Georgia.

Andrew Pace [00:31:04]:

They they also were all things to kinda run. You gotta assume Penn State's gonna have seen how Yeah. They he gashed Georgia on it like, you'd be in a situation where you're like, okay. Georgia's getting the ball back, and they wouldn't even throw the football. You take off running and pick it up.

GosuThune [00:31:19]:

Yeah. And you can run on Georgia. It's not the same Georgia defense from years past. You know? And all these SEC teams, they don't have the same that, actually, Texas, They're ironically the the one only one left. They're the one that actually holds up like an old school SEC team. But, yeah, I mean, I I kind of like I kind of like the matchup for Notre Dame for Penn State, but I really like the under a lot. Okay. It's kind of low, but

Andrew Pace [00:31:40]:

it's I'm gonna come out and say that Penn State should be able to just fucking thump Notre Dame. That's my opinion. But, again, I don't give a shit about pregame betting. So I am looking to I'm looking forward to that. I'd say I'm looking forward to both games because lopsided games are sort of hated from the audience in college football, but we love lopsided games. And when you have a game that's more or less a pick them, you don't care who's dominating. You really don't.

Shane Mercer [00:32:08]:

Yeah. John bringing up the the total there. I just wanna mention that it opened at 47, and that line has moved to 45a half. So, John, it's it's moving it it's moving downward probably because guys like you are out there betting it.

Andrew Pace [00:32:22]:

John's probably already got 47. So when you're listening to this,

Andrew Pace [00:32:25]:

And you're sitting there getting 44. Yeah. Exactly. You know?

GosuThune [00:32:29]:

Well, nobody cares nobody cares about your CLV, so I I would still take 45. There you go. I like 45.

Andrew Pace [00:32:35]:

There you go. Okay. So Ohio State, John, I thought they opened at 6 and a half. They're down to 6 now. Is that wrong?

GosuThune [00:32:41]:

They opened at 4 and a half. And within, like, a day, it was it was up to 6 and a half. And then that's where the resistance came in. That they'll they'll it'll never they'll never give us 7. I don't think I mean, it would just they would get too much money on that 7, and they'd just be too easy to get that backdoor. So I think I have 4 and a half to 5, I think is the right line. You know, Ohio State looks head and shoulders above all these other teams left, right? I mean, of anyone in the playoff, they've looked to the absolute best because they've dominated on both sides of the ball consistently throughout both games that they've played. I mean, it's not even close.

Andrew Pace [00:33:16]:

And they're the they're the favorite win it all big time now. I think it's the public thinks they're they're unbeatable.

Shane Mercer [00:33:20]:

That was a thrashing.

GosuThune [00:33:21]:

Yeah, it's them in the field. So, yeah, I mean, it's I would rather like again, this isn't a game I would bet pregame, but like, because if I, if Texas is the side, I like, I would rather just see if I could get a 7 and a half, like, you know, like just wait, let the game start and then let Ohio State get a 1st down. And all of a sudden you get a 7 and a half, you know, it's like when you get those lines, like the lines move so fast in college. So, but from a matchup standpoint, I think the defense is actually have an advantage in this game. But, you know, the total is not high enough for me to want to take it under, though, with how explosive Ohio State is specifically.

Andrew Pace [00:33:57]:

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, they're 22 really good games this week, so I'm I'm excited for them. Okay.

GosuThune [00:34:01]:

Oh, oh, sorry. Quinn Ewers revenge game.

GosuThune [00:34:06]:

People who forget about, the Quinn Ewers lost his job to CJ Stroud a couple years ago.

Andrew Pace [00:34:12]:

Yeah. Oh, that's good stuff. Okay. Over to the NFL, I, you know, if you're gonna lose a teaser, best to go 0 and 2, which is what I I did this past week. I'll just I'll just do a run through from the teaser standpoint really quickly. So games that make sense, I'm not betting these. You can get Houston up to plus 8a half. I think Baltimore on a 10 point teaser probably makes a lot of sense.

Andrew Pace [00:34:35]:

There are books that have the bills at 8a half. So getting them down to 2a half on a 6 is super appealing. Get the Packers up to plus 10a half right now. That makes a lot of sense. I think the commando side on the plus, getting them through 8a half and up to 9 or 9a half is good. And then if you can get 1a half on the Rams, you can get them up to 7a half. There's no way I am betting that combination of games. I hate Houston.

Andrew Pace [00:35:02]:

I think they're a terrible playoff football team. I'm not saying they won't win or cover. I just haven't liked what I've seen from them. I think Baltimore is probably the highest probability team of a blowout in the NFL right now. So I wouldn't touch minus 10, but that, that 10 10 point down teaser probably makes a lot of sense. I love the Bills at 2a half. That would definitely be my my favorite, of the week. I want to get the Commandos, but as we're recording this, a lot of it is plus 3 at even or plus money.

Andrew Pace [00:35:33]:

So I would wanna see that get to 3a half or 4 and have it get a little bit juicy to put on a teaser. And then finally, I do like the Rams, but I really would like 8a half. I would pull the trigger for 7a half. So, basically, I haven't bet my teaser yet. I'm waiting and hoping that I'm gonna be able to get a couple of those pluses. But the 3 that I like are the Rams, Commandos, and, and the and the Bills. I would assume I'm only gonna do 2 of the games because I don't think the lines are gonna match up, the way I the way I want them to at at the same time, but, we shall see. John, what do you like this weekend for, any of these playoff games?

GosuThune [00:36:15]:

Yeah. I think the numbers on particularly the Ravens and the Bills are too high. I don't think any of these teams should really be more than a touchdown favorite, this year. Like, in any spots, the I think what you're seeing is kind of what you talked about with the teaser. The books are afraid of having those numbers at 7a half, 8a half because they know they would get a ton of lopsided action on teasers on those favorites. So a lot of times I don't I don't know if people really are are aware of this maybe, but a lot of times with these favorites that are more than a touchdown favorite, a lot of times the line is actually made considering teasers. Like, you know, they don't they just don't wanna give themselves the exposure on that teaser. So I think that's why that Raven's number is so high because that's a also divisional game.

GosuThune [00:37:00]:

You know? And then you have the greatest underdog coach of all time in Tomlin getting 10 points on some books right now. I I could see the number keep going, because I just think the public's gonna hammer the Ravens. They're gonna hammer them in teasers. So, that that's a really interesting one. I'll definitely have to have some action on the Steelers for sure. I I kinda like the Bucks. I was actually hoping that line would go down because I don't know the the public really likes the Commanders. The Bucks almost didn't make the playoffs.

GosuThune [00:37:28]:

So I'm kind of hoping I can get normal juice on a 3 or, like, minus 110 on 3 flat or maybe, like, minus 120, minus 125, or minus 2a half. I think that line should be closer to 4a half. The other lines out there kind of makes sense to me that that charters Texan's line makes sense. I I I can't get there on, like, a minus 3 for the charters, but 2a half, I I kinda like, even though I don't know that there's much value on the number. I just think that Texan's team has so many bad vibes, and they've they've just they've really kind of torpedoed here towards the end. And then finally, that that Vikings line, I think, that opened 2a half, and you've seen that come down real quick. And I think that game is gonna close like a pick. If I made that line, I would make it Vikings minus 115 on the money line.

GosuThune [00:38:12]:

I think people are probably gonna be pretty surprised by that. I think that's that's a line that's gonna have a lot of reverse line movement where there's a lot of professional money coming in on the Rams while the public's hitting the Vikings, wondering how it's their only pick. The narrative about, you know, it's probably gonna be a home game for Minnesota and, like, all that kind of stuff. I don't know that that's necessarily gonna be true in the playoffs. It for that game, I think people actually make the trip to see to to support the Rams and brave the LA traffic. But I like the Rams. And I gave you, you can still get the Rams at, like, a massive number to win the Super Bowl, which, you know.

Andrew Pace [00:38:46]:

Oh, I'm in on that, John. There's no way I was passing up those odds.

GosuThune [00:38:48]:

It's it's pretty it's pretty nuts. Some of the team hosting a playoff game in the 1st round who's their coach and quarterback have won a Super Bowl together in in in recent history. Just a pretty crazy number on that.

Andrew Pace [00:39:01]:

But you people talk about the Bengals, the Bengals, the Bengals and the run they're on. The Rams are on an incredible run. The Rams closed out the season as elite of as any team in the NFL and not getting the attention.

GosuThune [00:39:15]:

Yeah. I mean, they beat the Bills, you know, a few weeks ago. Like, they they've beaten good teams, and they've looked good doing it. So, I just that that to me, that's the biggest value on the board. Mean it's not gonna doesn't mean it's gonna win, but it's you have to have some money on that.

Andrew Pace [00:39:29]:

The Bills who beat the Detroit Lions, the Bills that beat the Kansas City Chiefs, the Rams handled them very well. They can the Rams can beat anybody. The Eagles are amazing. The Lions are amazing. The Vikings look like shit last night, but they have been amazing. Give give me the Rams at 40 to 1. Fuck yeah. Like, I'm I'm I'm pumped for that bet.

Andrew Pace [00:39:52]:

And, of course, every year, we talk about something like this, and then we're gonna be sitting here going, oh, the Vikings got They got through right. Shanes gonna be like I told you so guys.

Shane Mercer [00:39:58]:

You know, I probably, though, like, you guys are bringing it up, and and I can't disagree. Like, the Rams like, I had I had Puka and Kyron on one of my main Fantasy teams all season long, and I had them last season as well. I kept them as keepers this year around because I I love that offense. I think that offense is really strong. And, I I did not want the Vikings to be going to play the Rams this this upcoming, this upcoming weekend.

Shane Mercer [00:40:32]:

And and I'm very, I'm very concerned for for my team heading out there because I think I think you guys are absolutely right. I think that Rams that Rams team is is dangerous. And when we talk about, wide receivers in the league, you know, Justin Jefferson, of course, always comes up as a top name. Ja'Marr Chase always coming up as a top name, and and, you know, there there's a few others out there. I don't think Puka Nakua comes out as much in the conversation as I think he needs to. The guy is big. He's strong. He's fast.

Shane Mercer [00:41:04]:

He's got he's a whole package of wide receiver, that that you just want on your team, and and he's durable. You know. Yeah. Like, it's it's, I think he's a special player. And I I I think he yeah. I think he's an absolute superstar. And then of course you have Cooper Kupp out there who is who is that guy just a few years ago and and can probably still pull it out. And, and then you talk about McVay and and Stafford having already been there and won it.

Shane Mercer [00:41:30]:

You know, it's it really is, they're they're a full package team, and I I'm I'm very concerned of my Vikings heading out there.

Andrew Pace [00:41:36]:

Sorry. You have you have you bet the future?

Shane Mercer [00:41:38]:

I'm thinking I'm gonna I haven't yet, but I think I'm going to.

Andrew Pace [00:41:42]:

It's a great emotional hedge.

Shane Mercer [00:41:43]:

Yeah. It is an emotional hedge. That's what it is. So Yeah. I think I'm gonna have to, especially if the number like, I haven't I haven't looked, but is is that 40 to 1 number still out there? It's probably not that high.

Andrew Pace [00:41:53]:

I I haven't I haven't looked today, but with the the new line of screen released, but I know there's, like, 30 sixes out there and stuff like that.

Shane Mercer [00:41:59]:

I mean, like, if any anything over 30, I think I'm gonna probably have to

GosuThune [00:42:03]:

45 to 1. Oh my god. On a book out there.

Andrew Pace [00:42:05]:

That's better than the line you got John.

Shane Mercer [00:42:07]:

That's insane.

GosuThune [00:42:09]:

I know. It's better than the line I got before we even knew they were gonna make the playoffs. I don't I don't understand. I think it's it's just maybe, like, drawing the Vikings in the 1st round or something. I I don't know. But I the the even the path, you know, assume everything goes chalk, they get to play in a dome again. McVay gets to play against golf again. You know? Like, I mean, it's there's familiarity.

GosuThune [00:42:27]:

There's a matchup kind of advantage there, not having to go outdoors. If, you know, I think that's a good just a good path for him. It's the odds are odds are pretty insane. So Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:42:36]:

Yeah. Totally. And I'm just realizing as we're talking about this stuff, Shane, the that you have up. Yeah. Yes. The commando's playing the Rams, and the Vikings are playing the Rams.

Shane Mercer [00:42:45]:

Yeah. How did that happen?

Shane Mercer [00:42:49]:

You gotta make a little adjustment there.

Andrew Pace [00:42:51]:

A guy on Twitter who was, like, super hopeful.

Shane Mercer [00:42:56]:

You would think that was the case but this is Bleacher Report. Yeah. I don't know. They they got it a little screwed up here.

Shane Mercer [00:43:01]:

But, you know, I try I try to do something here to give everybody a visual representation. Hopefully, everybody's just listening in there.

Andrew Pace [00:43:08]:

No. You know what? I I like it. Sometimes, there's kind of a a notion in betting that if you're an expert of the sport or, like, you grew up playing the sport, that it could actually be a detriment or a handicap to you when you go in betting, and that you'd be better off, like, almost like throwing darts at a board and deciding that way as opposed to putting your knowledge in because knowledge has nothing to do it it should I shouldn't say it has nothing to do. Knowledge has nothing to do with, like, beating the spread. Right? There's so much more that goes into that kind of stuff. So, you know, putting up a bad graphic might might actually lead to success for for for because then the information that they operated with is, is, is gonna provide a little bit more chaotic or chaos in your decision. So, anyways, yeah, that Rams number is great.

Shane Mercer [00:44:02]:

Yeah. A couple other things I wanna I just wanna pick up on quickly. John, I think you're absolutely right to be looking at the Steelers, especially, like, if you can get a a crazy teaser spread on them, a divisional game. I mean, you know, these these teams know each other, and the spread is huge already. I don't know that that's I I think that spreads a little nuts, but I I think you're right that as the week goes on, the public's probably just gonna be hammering the Ravens. Right? And they're just gonna be looking at that Raven side, all all week. And and I'm thinking, like, yeah. I think I think, you know, there might be something there with the Steelers, at least to keep the game close.

Shane Mercer [00:44:34]:

Maybe not win, but but keep it within a a one score game.

Andrew Pace [00:44:40]:

They don't even need you to cover the spread.

Shane Mercer [00:44:41]:

Yeah. But that's what I'm saying is I I think they they can keep keep it a one score game. I think they can keep it a field goal game potentially. You know, that could be a 2017 walk off field goal for the win either side. You know Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:44:53]:

And we have seen Lamar Jackson, MVP, get the bye, be that get that home game after the bye, and then get up set in the playoffs.

Shane Mercer [00:45:01]:

So, it it happens.

Andrew Pace [00:45:02]:

Definitely Division games are where you can see probably a a real high probability of of upsets happening.

Shane Mercer [00:45:08]:

Yeah and, I know that that pace you like the Bills there, but, I I just that Denver team seems feisty.

Andrew Pace [00:45:16]:

I don't like the Bills I don't like the Bills spread. Right. If I can get 2a half on a teaser for the Bills, which you can right now, Bodog as Bodo 365, they both have they both have 8a half, and then it is the juicier side. So there's value on that 2a half on a teaser right now. I just don't like what I can put it with. I really like that Bills at 2a half. I think I think the Bills come out and, take care of business.

Andrew Pace [00:45:38]:

They know what they're doing in the playoffs. But but Sean Payton, the the time out holder, you know, he he is a good coach. We know that. Oh, yeah. My god, is he a fucked up dude with what he's doing on the field. Bo Nix is looking at him going call the time out, call the time out, and Sean Payton tells him to hurry up. They end up not even using it. Like, he clocked the ball.

Andrew Pace [00:46:01]:

Like, I it's just yeah. The guy is so messed up in the head sometimes. But, yeah, anyways, guys, separately of football, I think it's important because 2025 here now, our first episode of 2025. A lot of our, you know, gridiron stuff on the show has been like, oh, okay. We're we're talking about college football. We're talking about NFL. And I think it's really good for people to know that from a betting standpoint, there's no question that football sort of is the it's almost like the gravitational pull or what what controls the ecosystem of of the betting landscape, and it's for good reason. People just love the sport.

Andrew Pace [00:46:35]:

It's there's a reason why it's so profitable, so popular, list goes on and on, and I absolutely love it. From an ROI standpoint, it's been a great season. There's no question about it, and, you know, with not without its ups and downs. But what's to come this time of year from a betting standpoint when we look beyond football is the most profitable and most exciting, time of year from an ROI standpoint. Whether it's college basketball, Shane, whether it's women's college basketball

Shane Mercer [00:47:02]:

I'm already getting in on the women's and, and and, you know, watching the men's as well. I'm I'm playing both already, and then, you know, I'm, like, I'm excited for it. Absolutely. And it's it's been Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:47:12]:

And we had a great little week there betting on on college hoops this last week, and I kind of view this as the start of the season because this is when teams are now competing for starting to get a little bit more of a picture of, you know, where they're gonna stand in their in their conference tournaments.

Shane Mercer [00:47:26]:

And we get those conference games. Like, those conference games are in abundance now, whereas before, they they really weren't, and and we're really getting those conferences.

Andrew Pace [00:47:33]:

Yeah. And one one thing that's nice, we talked about this last year, is some of those conferences, they they do become their own league with their own tendencies, and and that's always something that that's really nice to keep an eye on. So, you know, sometimes we'll talk about, oh, like, they don't do this in European hockey, but they do it in the NHL or vice versa. You get that a little bit with, like, these these conferences in college basketball. There's so many teams, obviously, way more than college football, where, you know, you go, oh, that that you know, this this league's, you know, notorious for, playing slow or whatever the case may be. Right? Or or running it up on their opponent, being disrespectful to them, not dribbling the ball out. You know, the list goes on and on. And then from from a hockey standpoint, we're we're rocking and rolling, had a really big week of hockey, and our ROI is, really clicking on the season here with the NHL.

Andrew Pace [00:48:23]:

Had to obviously make some adjustments with this some of these new tendencies this year. But we kinda hit our stride as we head into the second half of the NHL season and into the playoffs. And then there's no debate with the NBA. Like, what's to come with the NBA is some of the most exciting, months in profit of of the entire year, especially as we head into the playoffs. So, on top of that, it's tennis season. Right? So we we turn the page into the summer a little bit earlier with tennis. I think the summer starts, right, or is is ending in in Australia to kick off the the major tennis season, but, a lot of fun and a lot of profit to be had. And, again, from an ROI standpoint, a lot of our ROIs on these sports are actually higher than football.

Andrew Pace [00:49:05]:

Mhmm. But it just doesn't have the same level of betting hype. So I'm really excited for, yeah, the rest of the the start the rest of the year, the rest of the sports seasons, but, you know, the start of 2025 because I think we've got some really good momentum, inside of the group at in play life.

Shane Mercer [00:49:21]:

Absolutely. Yeah. I love love that you touched on all all that. I I really only start looking at hockey and joining you guys on hockey kind of now ish and through the rest of the season, and not not much of a priority towards the end of the calendar year for me. And and, you know, you talk about ROI being higher. A lot of that is because, you know, these are when you talk about the NFL, it's the most efficient market out there. Right? It's getting it's getting the most action. Those those lines are always gonna be, somewhat sharper, whereas now it's a great opportunity to kinda dial into some of these, less efficient markets, perhaps, less bet markets that we're able to take advantage of as sharp bettors out there.

Shane Mercer [00:49:55]:

So it's a great time of year. Absolutely. And I'm I'm very much looking forward to it. And we'll we'll be talking more about some of these other sports and some of these other leagues, here on the podcast as as the as the year goes on and and and the seasons, progress. And I'm looking forward to to that as well. Alright, guys. Anything else before we say goodbye? That's it. Alright.

Shane Mercer [00:50:13]:

Fellas, till next week. Keep eating those bucks. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download, and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below. And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code BEHINDTHELINES.