Episode 95

Welcome [00:00:00]:

You're listening to Behind the Lines, a podcast presented by inplayLIVE and powered by Pinnacle, the number one sports book where winners play and never get limited. Go to pinnacle.com/inplaylive to sign up and get in the game.

Andrew Pace [00:00:16]:

The ace up your sleeve is going to the shady book and saying, look. I'm gonna level with you guys. I know you're not paying me. Right? The bookie, hey. I know you're not paying me. Can you please give me access to my account, and can you please let me play there even for x dollars? I just need to lose the money out of the account.

Shane Mercer [00:00:34]:

Just tell them straight up. Have you had that conversation? Like, where you've gone and said, look, guys, just let me lose the money here, please. Hello, and welcome. It's another episode of Behind the Lines powered by Pinnacle, purifying the sports betting industry. I'm Shane. That guy over there is Pace. By now, you should know the 2 of us. And on today's show, it's how to win with a sharp book like Pinnacle.

Shane Mercer [00:01:09]:

We'll be debunking the only ways to win. And the gridiron grind, it's playoffs, baby. That's coming at you towards the end of the show, so stay tuned for that. Alright, PACE. I'm kicking this off by debunking some bullshit that I heard on another podcast hosted by allegedly Sharp Bettors who have made it clear, perhaps they aren't sharp enough or maybe they've lost their edge over time. I was listening to a podcast where the host said there were only 3 ways to win at sports betting in 2025. And my issue is that it's not that these 3 aren't legitimate ways to win. They absolutely can be.

Shane Mercer [00:01:47]:

But to say that there's only 3 ways to win is fucking nonsense, man. I I don't know how else to put it. It's just something that I I heard it, and I couldn't believe what I was hearing from people that I thought were really sharp sports bettors. So here are the three ways to win. People are probably wondering, well, what are these three ways? And and these are things that if you're a sharp bettor, as many of you in our audience are, or if you're even just beginning, chances are you've heard of these ways, to to win at sports betting. And so it's top down betting, which is basically where you use a sharp book like Pinnacle as your source of truth, and you bet other numbers that are out there that are different from the sharp book. So let's say on a football game, Pinnacle has minus 3a half and you find a minus 2a half on another soft book out there, you take the minus 2a half. And over time, you'll find that that there's an edge there just by doing that.

Shane Mercer [00:02:43]:

How big is that edge? I think that's, you know, probably debatable. It's probably in the in, you know, low single digits. 2nd way to win at sports betting origination, creating your own lines based on modeling data, running simulations, that kind of thing. This is a very statistically driven approach using tools like Google Sheets, Excel, Tableau, Python, r. It involves a lot of data collection and analysis and probably requires some kind of programing skills. You know, I hope to explore this side of things in greater detail throughout the year. Maybe we'll have some guests on to come on and talk about what they do in this space. We've had some on in the past.

Shane Mercer [00:03:24]:

We've had some people who have created some really interesting tools for this kind of thing using AI as well. But this is sort of one of the ways out there where you create your own numbers and then you put them to test against the books and and hope that your numbers are closer, to the truth than what the books have out there. John Wilson, who's who joins us for the gridiron grind, he does a lot of this stuff and has been extremely successful with it. But that's that's number 2. And both those top down betting origination, ways that you can win in sports betting. And the third one, which I think is is kind of funny, but this was the third one that was thrown out there, Leveraging news and acting faster than others. And as we've talked about this before, that, you know, information is absolutely key in this space. You know, information is power.

Shane Mercer [00:04:15]:

You can absolutely use it to your advantage to win. But I've got to say, in this day and age, thinking that, you know, for all of you out there that that are listening, that are sort of new to your sports betting journey or maybe you're midway through and even if you are a sharp bettor, you know how difficult this can be to, 1, get this piece of news before other people. And then 2, you've gotta beat those other sharps to the book or or to wherever you're getting that advantage. It it it doesn't last for very long. So if you're an average guy out there trying to win at sports betting and you're listening to this, like, good luck trying to get the news and acting on it faster than the sharps on a consistent basis. I'm not saying you can't do it, that you can't do it once or twice or do it, but to do it all the time on a consistent basis, you know, in in sort of a pregame way, good good luck to you on that as that being your strategy for winning at at sports betting. So those were the the 3 pace that that were tossed out there. Now that I've gone through these sort of, you know, only ways to win at sports betting, I think it's time now that we can talk about all of the other waste pace that we win at sports betting.

Shane Mercer [00:05:26]:

And we use Pinnacle and and in a lot of those instances to do so, books like Pinnacle Sharp Sportsbooks that that really kind of help. PACE, I'll turn it over to you first. What do you think about those three things, those three strategies that I brought up? And and and I guess, you know, where how much is being missed when that's the picture?

Andrew Pace [00:05:48]:

Gosh. I mean, I think there's I those those guys are sharp sports bettors, and, there's an argument to be made that almost anything we bring up today will fall into one of those 3 buckets. That's what I would say. I would say the approach of the industry is pregame. It just simply is. When we founded in PlayLive, you know, there was very much this sort of don't do those things because there's a better way mentality with live betting. So it's it's tricky. There's so many ways to make money live betting, and that just wasn't what they were referencing.

Andrew Pace [00:06:31]:

So I don't necessarily wanna be like, they're so wrong. That's that's not really my approach. I think we just wanna open people's eyes and say, hey. You know, there there's some other things we can do here, and some of them might fall into those those buckets for sure. Certainly access to news when it even with live betting. When we know something that we saw with our own eyes, we make a decision that might not be official yet. Whether that's a player injury, whether that's a call an official made, whether that's a call that we think will stand or get overturned, where we have to put our own eyes and our own minds on the game that to determine whether or not that news was accurate or not. And that sometimes means that you're wrong.

Andrew Pace [00:07:14]:

And I think sometimes with access to news, you know, we we just had doctor Jesse Morris on here. He might assess an injury in a way that that we don't because we don't have the same knowledge of of the medical field and and what those injuries possibly could be. So someone might be listed as, you know, week to week, but they're not ruled out yet. And we might be able to bet on a couple of lines where we go, hey. We actually know this player will not be able to play this week. We make those same types of judgments as the degenerate bettors that we are in real time, based on those situations. So access to news and how you interpret it certainly is an edge, both pregame and live. It can also be a detriment.

Andrew Pace [00:07:58]:

Because if you do have some sort of biased opinion or you don't understand the rules and and different things like that and, Shane, you've seen it in real time where I get into a debate with another one of our pros about the call. Yeah. I think my my track record's really strong there to toot my own horn. But but the way we interpret information as human beings is always gonna be subjective and not necessarily black and white. And and for one person, that could be an edge. And for another person, like I said, that could be a detriment. So how you handle these situations could be, hey. This is an edge for you, and you start teaching someone to do it.

Andrew Pace [00:08:38]:

And they go they go lose a bunch of money because, their interpretations of it weren't weren't, accurate enough to actually generate an edge long term. But, anyways, the the whole point, I think, of today is I wanna open people's eyes up to how you can make money betting on sports. I've been excited about this episode for months. I would argue that what we're gonna bring up today is some of the best information that's ever been put out publicly on how to make money from sports betting and specifically live sports betting. We are gonna talk a little bit about pregame today, but as you guys know, I don't really consider myself to be a pregame pro aside from our teasers. We hit another one last week.

Shane Mercer [00:09:23]:

Bang bang.

Andrew Pace [00:09:25]:

But right. So, yeah, I think there's a lot of value packed into this, and I'm excited to get into it.

Shane Mercer [00:09:30]:

Yeah. You know, I think what what really sort of rubbed me the wrong way is that the only ways you know, I think that's what bothered me. It's like for anybody out there to say, hey, this is the only way to do something or these are the only ways to do something. I think that, you know, it's such a narrow minded approach to anything. You know? And and we're, you know, we live in an age of disruption, of change, of constant, adaptation required. You know? And and that kind of thinking just boxes you in. And and I think that's what really kind of rubbed me the wrong way about it. From the pregame standpoint, something that wasn't included in the conversation at all.

Shane Mercer [00:10:14]:

And and I'm not saying that this is, you know, that these that these are the ways to go from a pregame perspective, but it wasn't even part of the conversation is arbing and middling things that you can use a sharp book like Pinnacle to to do against soft books. Lots of people out there. I know we've had we have a few pros that that sort of really built their bankroll simply by doing pregame arbing. You know, and it's out there, especially with a lot of the bonuses and and incentives that you can get at different books like that. That's a way that right off the bat, if you're a new sports bettor, you you can you can build up a little bit of a bankroll just by arbing.

Andrew Pace [00:10:50]:

Yeah. I mean, I think, you know, the that initial kick of your bankroll bonus harvesting and Yeah. That that that that starts a journey beyond the bankroll. It starts a journey mentally where you approach the scene with an edge, with an angle. And while it will dry up because the bonuses won't just keep pouring in, it's it's a great way to shift your mindset from, I'm in an arena that's known for losing to now one where I am here to exploit and maximize opportunities that generate me a profit. And that that's it's a it's a gateway drug. It's like a gateway plus. It's a it's a gateway plus the way of betting.

Andrew Pace [00:11:35]:

It really is. And that that leads to a great, great, a great future, provided you continue down the path.

Shane Mercer [00:11:43]:

Yeah. And, you know, middling as well, which I think we'll get into, which I think is is a, a much more productive thing to do in to do live than it is to do pregame. But you can do it pregame. You know, you're you're are you gonna hit, you know, enough middles to to make it profitable over the long term? Maybe depending on how big those middles are, how how big of discrepancies you can find out there. But, you know, certainly, live, we we've managed to to to be profitable middling live. I don't do a lot of middling pace, and I know you don't, but we have a lot of people in the inplayLIVE community that do do a lot of middling live and and make money off of doing it. And, you know, in in a lot a lot of times, you need a sharp book to do that middling against. Right?

Andrew Pace [00:12:32]:

Yeah. Well, no. You don't know. You don't need one.

Shane Mercer [00:12:34]:

You don't need it. You don't need it, but it it can be good to have.

Andrew Pace [00:12:38]:

Right. So I think, Shane, if we're gonna if we're gonna transition here and start getting into this, I think that the biggest and and simplest sort of analogy for edges live versus pregame and why I bet live is if you go scour a betting menu right now and especially if you do it for major North American sports, will you find middles? Can you find middles? Will you find ARBs? Can you find ARBs? The answer to both of those questions is obviously yes. Can you find plus EV bets, whether it's top down, or whether you're originating those bets? Can you beat the books, to news? Some of them, yes, of course. Can you beat the books where your interpretation of the news is sharp and is gonna yield you a profit long term? Of course, again, the answer is yes. And I think when it comes to actually breaking news and and those ways of making money, there's an argument to be made that if you have that tremendous access to that information beyond, the level that the public has or beyond the level that the sportsbooks have, which that it's tricky, but it's possible. Your edges can be monstrous with pregame betting. Monstress.

Andrew Pace [00:13:56]:

But as a general statement for anyone that is going, hey. I wanna learn to make money from betting on sports. When you shift from pregame where you see some of these middles and arbs and they're really high hard to find and the edges are super small and the middles and arbs are super small to live betting, all of a sudden you have huge middles Yeah. Huge arbs. And with huge middles and huge arbs comes huge plus EV edges. And, yes, I'm talking about double digit edges. And a lot of people can't wrap their head around that. No.

Andrew Pace [00:14:28]:

But they're out there, and they're out there consistently, and and we are evidence of that. So when you say, you know, the role of a sharp book, in this equation, I think there's a lot of reasons why, Pinnacle is gonna be a cornerstone for a sports bettor's success. And Pinnacle's the sharpest sports book in the world. There there might be another book that's equally as sharp to it, but I think when it comes to reputation, payouts and everything that they do, they are the sharpest sportsbook in the world.

Shane Mercer [00:14:56]:

On a global level, I think I think it's probably unmatched. Right? In North America, you could maybe have the conversation, but I think on a global level, Pinnacle is probably the sharpest by far.

Andrew Pace [00:15:07]:

Right. Right. And and when they set a line and they are viewed as the sharp line and using other books to, I guess, assess the value around that Pinnacle line to see where discrepancies are and then betting based on that and and having an edge from it. If you just take that identical approach to pregame betting and shift it to live, it's just, like, mind blown. And the reason why is because you're not gonna find these multi point discrepancies pregame where you will find them live. Not only will you find them live, you're gonna find them more consistently and with less time remaining in the game. So when it comes to making money from live sports betting, I think the one of the most fundamental things that you can do is break the game down into the shortest time frames possible. So you have to be careful when we enter this discussion, Shane, because as soon as you take a pregame veteran who doesn't have an edge, who's could maybe put in the bucket of of someone that could potentially be a losing player or maybe even have a problem or lead to a problem

Shane Mercer [00:16:24]:

Well, we know that that that the vast majority of sports bettors out there are losing players. Right? Like, if if, you know, somebody's finding the show out there, chances are they're a losing player. Right? And it's it's something like 98% or even higher are losing players. So, you know Sure. The vast majority are. Right?

Andrew Pace [00:16:41]:

Sure. So all of a sudden, when you flip things to live and you break the game down into smaller chunks, all of a sudden, it's like spinning the roulette wheel more times. Yeah. Right? And that's the last thing we wanted to do for years. For sure. So we're kinda gonna go forward where it's like we're not referencing people that have a problem and can lose more. And, actually, being a being, you know, the CEO of inplayLIVE and and seeing some of the interactions that we've had with customers, potential customers in the industry, there has definitely been people that speak out against live betting strictly from the standpoint of you're going to lose more from betting live because there's more gambling opportunities now. And that's why there's been such a shift to live from the sportsbooks themselves is because they are opening up new revenue streams.

Andrew Pace [00:17:26]:

So let's put that aside and go forward with the the prop the things from a profitability standpoint. Now if you're looking at a pregame r, pregame middle, whatever the case may be, there is we talked about chaos theory in one of our very first episodes of behind the lines. There is so much uncertainty regardless of the expected value of your wager. You can have great closing line value. You can have a model that suggests that you have a a double digit edge, in the game. And the game gets flicked on, and it just goes completely opposite of of of what we had hoped or or how you would have hoped that that game would have gone. Really good example from this past weekend was the chargers were favorites on the road against Houston. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:18:11]:

What? 4 point favorites? 4 and a half point favorites, I think it was.

Andrew Pace [00:18:15]:

I think it I think it was 3 flat

Shane Mercer [00:18:16]:

Okay.

Andrew Pace [00:18:17]:

What what it closed at.

Shane Mercer [00:18:18]:

Right.

Andrew Pace [00:18:19]:

And separately of whether you believed there was value on either side of that game or the total, the game simply went one way after the Q1 because the chargers actually got the first two scores in that game. Houston ran over them after that. Right? So you may have said there's great value on Houston. They're at home, blah blah blah blah blah and listed off the reasons as to why you originated that line to have value, and there's nothing wrong with that. But if for whatever reason you were pointed in the direction of the chargers, the game just simply completely went the wrong way. Now the less time you have in a game, even though that same chaos theory exists, the less the variance will be applied to the wager that you're made that that you've made. Right? And that's why, you know, the odds of someone winning a game with 2 minutes left when they have a lead in, say, a hockey game when they're up 1, They're they're so heavily favored in that spot versus when the game started, whether they were the favored or not. The less time it's just a simple equation.

Andrew Pace [00:19:23]:

The less time remaining, the the more predictable, that outcome will be. It's not to say they're gonna win. It's to say the the the chance of them winning is so much higher as less time rolls in. So when you break the game down, it doesn't matter what game it is. It doesn't matter if it's a period of hockey. It doesn't matter if it's a a 10 minute window of hockey. It doesn't matter if it's a quarter of basketball or a quarter of football. You are opening up a whole world of betting opportunities when you shorten those games.

Andrew Pace [00:19:57]:

So what we're talking about specifically here is you might be looking at the Q1 of an NBA game while the game is actually running as opposed to looking at the end of that game. If you have a 2 point middle for the end of the game and it's in the Q1, I would probably tell you not to bet on that even though there might be an expected value there. And the reason for that is because it is so hard to land in that. But if there's 5 minutes left in the Q1 of an NBA game and you have that same two point middle, the odds of it landing in that spot are so much higher.

Shane Mercer [00:20:36]:

So much higher. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:20:39]:

So when we break the game down and and we see these variances, between 2 different sportsbooks, the shorter that time frame, it actually equates to, the greater the value, in that game. Now when it comes to Pinnacle specifically, let's let's pretend that what we said is completely accurate. They are the sharpest line, and you have other sportsbooks with variance around that line. Whether it be the same line at a different price or an entirely different different line that you can land in the middle. And just so you know, when we're talking about landing in the middle, guys, we're talking it could be a total or a spread. You have plus 6a half on one team and minus 4 on one sportsbook and minus 4a half on the other side at a different sportsbook. And if that quarter or half or game, ends on 5 or 6, you would have won both. If it landed on any other number besides 5 or 6, which is actually the more likely outcome, you're gonna lose the juice, that you paid for those 2 wagers.

Andrew Pace [00:21:40]:

You're ultimately, causing a very small loss, typically about 10 to 15% of the total amount that you wagered as opposed to the full size of what you lost. If you've done it correctly, you simply can't lose, both bets. Now when Pinnacle presents that that opportunity where you go Pinnacle is 2 points lower than, let's say, FanDuel, you could simply just take the FanDuel line and go, okay. Pinnacle's setting it here, and FanDuel is the the book that's 2 points higher. I'm just gonna take the FanDuel line because I believe that Pinnacle's sharper, and I'm gonna win money off FanDuel over the long term. Some people simply don't have that appetite for risk.

Shane Mercer [00:22:26]:

And that would fall into the top down, bucket that that, you know, we we sort of referenced off the top of the show here. Right? Except you're using it in a live format.

Andrew Pace [00:22:36]:

Totally. Yeah. Totally.

Shane Mercer [00:22:42]:

So I guess the other yeah. The other side of that too, right, is that you're you're using it in that format. And if you only take the one side, you take the FanDuel side, you know, that that would be top down betting, and you probably have an advantage there because Pinnacle is the sharper book. And if you do decide to middle and and, you know, you you take the the, the middle there, whether it's a 2 point middle or a 3 point middle, whatever you're getting, you know, you're risking only the juice. It's a small amount of risk for a big possible hit by hitting both bets if you land in the middle.

Andrew Pace [00:23:14]:

Totally. Yeah. Totally. And and I think the point is here is not only are you gonna get not only will you not get that opportunity pregame.

Shane Mercer [00:23:24]:

No, a 3 point middle would never exist pregame like that, even a 2 point middle almost never exists. You might get a half a point or a point if you're lucky. But, right. You know, we get we've see 4 point medals off 5 5 5 medals. Yeah. I mean, 4 and 5 point medals are not uncommon. And it like, in a basketball game, that's nuts. Like, a 4 point medal in a basketball game with, say, only 5 minutes remaining in the game or in the quarter, which would be sort of the smaller game you referenced, like, that's insane value.

Andrew Pace [00:23:53]:

Yeah. Totally. And separately of getting that opportunity, that opportunity might stay there for a much longer period of time, and it might continue as the game flows. So Yeah. You have a you have one of these 2 or 3 point middles that we're referencing. It's coming in for the Q1 or the first half, and you get the opportunity to maybe create a whole window of middles where you might have, anywhere from a plus a half to plus 10a half completely covered with, the the the corresponding minuses in 2 to 3 point windows all the way into the half. And you might go, oh, I'm paying quite a bit of juice if it all misses. But you might only need to land on one number to hit 5 or 6 of them.

Andrew Pace [00:24:44]:

And, well, you took very, very little risk. That simply just doesn't exist with pregame betting. And and the opportunities like this, they come quite a bit. The reason why these opportunities present themselves is you have a game unfolding with 2 completely different algorithms reacting to what's happening to that game. And sportsbooks do their best job to mitigate their risk while that game is actually running, but it sometimes can take a time out and a bunch of money coming in, to reset those lines. And even then, some sportsbooks don't don't correct adequately. So, yeah, Pinnacle does a great job. But even with Pinnacle, they will post lines.

Andrew Pace [00:25:28]:

And this is the thing. A lot of people will say, oh, I'm bleeding money out of my Pinnacle when they're betting this with with these strategies or styles. They'll go, oh, I'm bleeding out of money on my pinnacle, but it still provides them with the peace of mind and comfort to have their bets closed out and not be taking the the the risk. I I don't bet like this.

Shane Mercer [00:25:45]:

Yeah. I was gonna say, I I I don't do a lot of middling either myself, but this conversation is a bit is has made the wheels in my head saying, you know, going, shit, Shane, you need to do more middling. You should be getting a little more middling in, you know, in my portfolio. But, you know, anyway, it's just Yeah. It does take a significant time, you know, commitment there. And, you know, I want to make it we don't want to make it sound easy. It's it's work.

Andrew Pace [00:26:09]:

It totally totally is work. It's it's not fun either.

Shane Mercer [00:26:12]:

It can be like it very much is like the meme with, like, you know, all the numbers and the equations flying around. Right. Because there's just so many numbers and and, lines that you're that you're looking at. You have so many books open and and, you know, it can be yeah. It's a brain drain for sure.

Andrew Pace [00:26:29]:

Right. So what I was referencing there with the the algorithms of 2 of 2 different sportsbooks react reacting differently to what happens, I personally find that the biggest discrepancies will be in games that are outlying games themselves. And what I mean by that is maybe it's a, an underdog who's up by 40 in a basketball game. Yeah. Maybe it's a a game where the total was projected NBA game where the total was projected to be 2 10 pregame, and, it it it's looking like it's gonna land closer to 250 or 260 or vice versa. It was a 235 point pregame total, and it's looking like it's gonna land closer to a 190. Games that are really big outliers relative to what, was predicted in the game, is where you'll see multiple sportsbooks, show show some of these these discrepancies that you can middle or arb. Now I think it's important to reference.

Andrew Pace [00:27:21]:

There's kind of 3 ways that you can sort of structure, a a middle. And there actually are risks to this. So, Shane, you're we both talked about us not really doing this a lot. There's a reason for it. We can get into that. But, the the first thing that's important to know is that if you were to take, let's say, a middle where you bet on a line that's 3 points high on one book and the clock is running and you spun in, you know, under 212 and a half, and they in the NBA, they hit back to back threes in 6 seconds. And we all know with the spooling process of some of these sportsbooks, they may see those 2 baskets go in and accept your bet. And that was the high line.

Andrew Pace [00:28:07]:

And then you go look at your low line, and you're in trouble. Yeah. You you actually don't have, a middle anymore. We we'll reference that as being flipped upside down. So there's there's significant risk of that. That's number 1. Number 2 is the same example I just gave where you actually can't get out of the bet and you got stuck with an uncovered, middle that you can't get out of that. Maybe they hit a a third three now, and you're, like, 6 points behind or something like that, and you never end up getting the opportunity to get out of it.

Andrew Pace [00:28:37]:

So when you're betting on these types of things, if you're doing it while the games are running, some people do it with extreme levels of success because they've developed this skill over time and they're comfortable with those risks. But we always say wait for a time out and then make your decision. You have to be quick, obviously, but when you wait for a time out, you know that you can't get burnt completely. Some middles you might close out where you don't end up with a middle at all. You end up just intentionally eating the juice because of the lines, the lines that moved in that spot. Now when it comes to execution with anything in life, it's everything. I said this was boring. Shane, we both said that we don't do it.

Andrew Pace [00:29:21]:

I promise you, if you're like, hey. I wanna start doing this. This sounds really cool. You can do it in both football and basketball are amazing amazing for middling. Absolutely amazing. And I knew we were shooting this. So I had Pinnacle up next to Bette Victor, yesterday, and I was just looking at some of the lines coming through. And I'm like, there's a middle with a rail.

Andrew Pace [00:29:39]:

A rail is like if you had minus 6a half plus 7 flat, and it landed on 7, a key number in football, and it landed on 7, you'd push the 7 and hit the 6a half. And then all of a sudden, minus 6a half plus 8a half appeared. And I was like, oh, there's a really nice middle where if it lands on 7 and also can maybe, in this example, take a 2 point conversion, if if that was relevant for the play, and hit it. Execution's everything. This is a skill that you develop as a sports bettor that you put in your back pocket that can come out at times that you didn't even expect it to come out. When you aren't middling where you go, okay. I have this skill, and I actually need to put it into play now for a bet that, again, maybe we saw a call get overturned. And you're like, oh, I can middle out at this book right now.

Andrew Pace [00:30:25]:

And we know that we didn't want the original bet that we took. So when you enter this arena of doing this, you have to put in some time where you go, this is confusing and this is hard and this is challenging and this isn't as easy as they made it seem. And that's where that skill develops. And then there's the actual execution of your bankroll and how you deal with it and dealing with sportsbooks limiting you and all that other kind of stuff. So I started this with saying there's 3 ways to structure these. The first is where you actually are eating juice to pay for the middle. So if you had minus 1.15 on one side and minus 1.10 on the other side and you were doing $1,000 middles and you laid the juice, so you bet $1,150 on the minus 1.15 and $1,100 on the minus 1.10, Combined, you paid 25¢ of juice, to take that middle. And if one of those two sides misses, you'll have eaten the juice, on your wager.

Andrew Pace [00:31:21]:

So you're in in this example for a total of 2,200 and $50, and you're only gonna be returning a $1,000 back if one of those two sides, misses, which actually is the more likely outcome. 1 of those two sides missing is is gonna be what happens more times than not. So you actually have to be comfortable with when you're middling, you're you're you're hitting at about 15%.

Shane Mercer [00:31:42]:

You'll you'll return $2,000. You'll return 2 like, you'll you'll get your $1,000 plus another $1,000. So if you're in for 22100, right, you would get 2,000 back. You would lose about $200 or or Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:31:54]:

I wanted to get through there with that example. You'd lose $250. Yeah. Right? Right. You you'll you'll have risked $2,250. And if one of the two sides doesn't hit, it will have cost you, the $250. But you risked 250 total dollars in this example where you had the upside of winning $2,000 profit.

Andrew Pace [00:32:16]:

Yeah. $2,000 of of profit. Right? So, with volume, which is what you get live, you don't get that pregame. With volume, these start hitting quite a bit, to the point where you watch your bankroll and you just go, oh my god. This is amazing. So that's the first way to structure them.

Andrew Pace [00:32:36]:

The second way is oftentimes what would require some alternate lines, which Pinnacle offers live. So let's say you have a soft line at FanDuel that's 3 points high. Well, you might not take a 3 point middle in this example. FanDuel might be at minus 110. Well, you can take one of the alternate lines at Pinnacle that might pay plus 1.20, and you have a one point middle. But the one point middle was an arb because you paid 1,100 to lay the juice on the FanDuel side, and you paid 1,000 on the Pinnacle side. And if the pinnacle side hits, you would have actually returned $1200, and you can structure it so that you you put equal amounts on both sides so that you return a profit no matter what. But you don't lose money.

Andrew Pace [00:33:25]:

They actually paid you to take the middle. You might have returned a net profit on the $2,000 of about $10, $20, $25, small money, but it didn't cost you anything. You made a little bit of money, and if it lands in the middle, kaboom. Yeah. So that would be an arb middle. That would be the second way to structure it. And then the third way would be a free middle. So you find opportune and, obviously, the more that you get towards paying juice versus not paying juice, the opportunities become smaller and smaller, but they still present themselves regularly.

Andrew Pace [00:33:58]:

And if you structure it so that it's free, there's a few different ways that you can do it. Shout out to Randy. There's a few different ways that you can do it. You can lay the juice on the 3 point middle as the example that we just gave from the $2,250. But lay it for only maybe $500 of it, and then take a half point middle or even no middle with the remaining 500 and take that alternate line so that regardless of the outcome that occurred, you end up breaking even and having a free middle with a portion of it. And and it's just an amazing way to take a totally no risk approach to to live betting.

Shane Mercer [00:34:39]:

Yeah. It's it's, again, yeah. Like you mentioned, Randy, we did a whole episode with Randy as well, probably about a year and a half ago, almost 2 years ago, on middling. The guy, you know, is incredible. He does it basically, you know, as his sort of main way of betting. He's a superstar with it. And and he does you know, the free middle, the the the paid middles where you're getting paid to take the middle, kinda like an like you referenced, like an arb middle. You know? It's an incredible way to to build a bankroll, and I'm glad you referenced the alt lines on Pinnacle because I think that that's something that maybe, you know, gets underappreciated.

Shane Mercer [00:35:17]:

But Pinnacle keeps those alt lines open so late because, you know, you referenced the, you know, avoiding chaos and and trying to make the game as, you know, as as short a window as possible. Well, Pinnacle will allows you to really take advantage of it because they do keep those alt lines open so late. I mean, in some cases, pace, we're talking basketball here. They could keep, they could keep lines open and perhaps even alt lines open as late as a minute left in the game, like, 1 minute remaining in the game. It'd be hard to do a middle there because a lot of other books will be closed by then, but Pinnacle could would still be open.

Andrew Pace [00:35:57]:

Which which obviously presents opportunities. And this is where this is where Pinnacle really comes into the tool belt of a sharp sports bettor. You might need to derisk a position that you have Yep. In another game where you can't you can't do it anywhere else. And cashing out might cost you quite a bit of money because cash outs in general are loaded with big. So they're loaded with, additional house money. And Pinnacle offers one of these late lines for you to be able to to derisk to a certain situation. Now I I almost never hedge.

Andrew Pace [00:36:31]:

I almost never meddle. So the strategies that we're talking about, I don't even use, but they're a fundamental cornerstone of your growth as a bettor to understand how live lines work and how sportsbooks work. Right? There's a whole series of different reasons why I think Pinnacle really is a cornerstone for people to bet with that we're gonna we're gonna be able to touch on here. But this top down middling approach to whether it's plus betting or closing your bets out so that you're not taking a lot of risk is amazing. And sometimes what you'll find is, you know, you're you're doing this and you go, okay. I've got Pinnacle here and woah. I keep saying FanDuel. FanDuel is 2 points high.

Andrew Pace [00:37:11]:

Well, MGM is 1 point below Pinnacle. So I like this 2 point middle at Pinnacle, but I've actually got a third point, using 2 2 softer books together where Pinnacle was somewhere in the middle. Right? So the beautiful part of that equation is that those other two books are gonna gonna limit your action. So with the Pinnacle as one of the pieces of of the equation, you know that you're gonna get to to keep your account there, which is obviously just it it it is really nice, in the grand scheme of things. Now using using Pinnacle as as this they're the sharp book and everything else isn't, 99 times out of a 100, it's correct. That that is correct. But when you are remarkably disciplined and, again, the idea versus the execution is so easy. The theory to say is so easy.

Andrew Pace [00:38:02]:

The practice is a whole other ballgame. It is a whole other ballgame. But there are opportunities where once you become comfortable enough with live lines, whether it's the rules of the game, the news that's breaking down in front of us in real time, the game flow itself, potentially some sort of pattern associated with, how how how momentum has swung in a game, how they're moving the football, the motivations towards the end of a half for a football team. The list goes on and on. The end of a game for a hockey team, whatever it is, it doesn't mean that you don't make money off Pinnacle. It means there's a time and a place for when you pull the trigger on an uncovered wager with them on a live bet. Again, most of the time, they'll be sharper. But can you make money there, by picking your spots? With without question without question.

Andrew Pace [00:38:53]:

And several people in our group have have done exactly that. So Yep.

Andrew Pace [00:38:58]:

If you take that disciplined approach, it also becomes an area to place plus EV bets on their side as well.

Shane Mercer [00:39:03]:

Yeah. Yeah. This isn't to say that Pinnacle is, that, you know, Pinnacle doesn't offer positive EV. In fact, you'll find a lot of the positive EV by focusing, on betting with them live, by breaking the game down into smaller games. And then even taking that that, you know, smaller game, we'll call it a quarter, and we'll use the basketball example and call it a quarter. And then just focusing on the last 3 to 4 minutes of the quarter, you know, because Pinnacle will still be open with lines. And, you know, people talk about closing line value all the time from the pregame perspective. Are you talking about the value of closing line value and how important that is for a pregame bettor? Well, start thinking about that in terms of live and getting that closing line value of the quarter.

Shane Mercer [00:39:51]:

So knowing when a book like Pinnacle will close the line for the quarter, right, which could be, you know, depending on on what league it is and what sport it is, or or we'll go back to the basketball example. Let's just say it's the NBA. You might know that Pinnacle is gonna close the line at 3 minutes. So you know that you could get some closing line value on the end of the quarter by getting your bet in at at the 3 minute and 15 second mark.

Andrew Pace [00:40:22]:

Which if you're betting on that outcome separately of middles, arbs, whatever, that's where you know you're gonna have the least amount of variance from a time perspective. Not we can't control what happens on the court, the field, the rink, etcetera. But, again, from a time perspective, that's where you have the least amount of variance, which, again, oftentimes presents the most expected value.

Shane Mercer [00:40:45]:

Exactly. And and Pinnacle stays open later. I just wanna get that I gotta reinforce that compared to a lot of soft books, you will find Pinnacle stay open later.

Andrew Pace [00:40:54]:

Totally. So, when it comes to your betting journey, whether it's, you know, taking this approach of going, hey. I wanna, you know, try some of these middles and things like that. Probably gonna be some times where you do make some mistakes. Probably gonna be some times where you get discouraged. So put in your back pocket a real system for money management. With middles in particular, you can go a little bit heavier. But to start, you have to understand those risks.

Andrew Pace [00:41:23]:

And to understand those risks, it usually means you have to live them. I coulda told you about them, and one day you might go, oh, right. He said this might happen. But when you live them, it's totally different. And let's say let's say your entire bankroll is $2,000 and you have $1,000 in 2 different books, And this great middle opportunity presents itself. And, geez, Shane, what are some of the ones we've seen? You bet on the wrong game.

Shane Mercer [00:41:51]:

Yeah. That's happened. You know, you you think you're meddling 1, you know, on one book on a game on one game, but you actually take like the over in one game and the under in a completely different game.

Andrew Pace [00:42:05]:

Human error. Yeah. So it's easier on a back back. The Celtics are on a back to back, and the total happens to be similar for where they're at in the current game. And you ended up middling to tomorrow's game, getting flipped, the line changing. The list goes on and on and on. So you really have to be responsible. I would we would always recommend people start with $1 on each side for practice,

Shane Mercer [00:42:27]:

Something small to practice with.

Andrew Pace [00:42:28]:

You do that for about a week and do it like do it for 5 nights

Shane Mercer [00:42:33]:

and make all those mistakes, you know, not on purpose, but you will make those mistakes where you bet on the wrong game where you get flipped upside down. You know, those things will happen to you, and you'll learn and, you know, understand it that much better.

Andrew Pace [00:42:45]:

Yeah. And a good example too is someone will be like, I can't seem to find middles between bet online and sports betting dotag.

Shane Mercer [00:42:54]:

It's like well, guess what? The same book.

Andrew Pace [00:42:56]:

You're using the same sportsbook.

Shane Mercer [00:42:57]:

Yeah. Same same odds provider there.

Andrew Pace [00:43:00]:

I I can't find middles between, Unibet and BetRivers.

Andrew Pace [00:43:04]:

Well,, guess what. They're both I'm using the same sportsbook.

Shane Mercer [00:43:06]:

Right? So be there.

Andrew Pace [00:43:08]:

I would say start and I'll but the reason why I bring that up is start with 2 books. Seriously. And when you get comfortable, get up to 4, maybe get up to 6, but start with 2 books and have a process. So how that process would look for me is I'm gonna go, okay. I'm a real bettor where the game dictates my bets, which a lot of people have a really hard time wrapping their brain around. At Bet Bash, I'd be like, they'd be like, oh, so you originate this? And I'd be like, I just watched the game, and and people had a hard time processing.

Shane Mercer [00:43:42]:

Well let's dive into that a little bit, pace, because I think maybe, you know, you don't call it originating, but, you know, I would say what you do is kind of origination in a lot of ways.

Andrew Pace [00:43:52]:

Im not handicapping the game with a system that I'm handicapping based on my knowledge of the game and then my betting data.

Shane Mercer [00:43:59]:

And you're betting. Exactly. So you're still using data. You know, you're still you're still you're just taking in that data in sort of real time in a lot of ways and comparing it to sort of past stuff.

Andrew Pace [00:44:11]:

But I didn't generate the data to make the bet. I made the bet that generated the data that then helped the next bet.

Shane Mercer [00:44:17]:

Exactly it's a different way. But I would I would still argue that it is it's live origination.

Andrew Pace [00:44:25]:

Sure. Who cares?

Shane Mercer [00:44:27]:

Right? Like, you know, who gives it? Right.

Andrew Pace [00:44:29]:

So so but the reason why I'm bringing this up with respect to middling is if you have NBA League Pass, right, and you have YouTube TV or YouTube TV with college basketball, as soon as you see a game on commercial, that's your time to act. Yes. It might be 15 seconds latent, but tie there isn't like a time out notification on the sports book.

Andrew Pace [00:44:55]:

Like, that 365 is not like ding sing. Cornell against Princeton is on a time out. Now you choose to go middle our lines.

Shane Mercer [00:45:00]:

Well, you will see if you are if you're watching that closely, you'll see clock stopped and then this little graphic that comes out time out. You know? But but the reason why it's a time to learn.

Andrew Pace [00:45:09]:

Right. But the reason why I brought this out start with 2 sportsbooks bet on timeouts only, and have a way to identify the timeouts. So for me, I've got a screen devoted to the games that allows me to see that they're now on the time out or they're reviewing something, whatever the case may be. And when they're reviewing something, what I love is that allows my interpretation of the review, which is, again, not related to middling, but another discussion where I go, this is gonna be a flagrant. They are gonna get 2 free throws in the ball. The line isn't reflecting that. I am gonna bet based on that situation. Right? But have a process to identify those games that are on time outs and then simply go to those games on those 2 sportsbooks.

Andrew Pace [00:45:51]:

It's that simple. Go to the nearest closing line. So if they're in the Q1, go to the end of the Q1. If they're in the second quarter, go to the end of the first half. 3rd quarter, 3rd quarter. Game game. Right? Go to the nearest closing line. Find discrepancies.

Andrew Pace [00:46:08]:

Execute on the discrepancy. Start with a dollar to $5 for a solid 5 nights of doing this. And when you feel like you're comfortable, then get into numbers relative to your bankroll that makes sense. And I would start with 1%, 1%. So that's if you have a $1,000 bankroll, that's $10 on each side. Right? And I would try to get up to 3% once you're really clicking with this stuff. Some people even get up to 5, but I would say try to get up to 3%. So if you had a $1,000 bankroll, you'd be doing 30 and 30.

Andrew Pace [00:46:42]:

And and just get comfortable with it, and that will open up so many more windows for you to be able to to make money as a sports bettor. Start with basketball, and the reason why is because there are no key numbers. It's irrelevant. When you get into football, you'll find that you might see a ton of middles on a ton of books. A really good example of a middle will be you might have minus a half and the half and plus 2a half and the half, and it's the last drive of the half. And it's a tie game. The minus a half to the 2a half is theoretically possible, but it's largely irrelevant. It essentially is the same line.

Andrew Pace [00:47:45]:

Whereas if it was minus a half plus 3a half, a walk off field goal in the example would then land it in in the middle of both, which would be a a hard middle to find. That wouldn't be something that you'd be able to find consistently. But we definitely have seen totals where you're approaching the half where it's 9a half and 11a half, and you need a touchdown and a field goal, and that's precisely what ends up happening. And if it doesn't, of course, you took very little risks. So, start with basketball, and then you can transition into other sports. And the high higher volume, higher scoring sports, I've never middled cricket. I've never middled handball. But I I think there could be potential.

Andrew Pace [00:48:24]:

I just don't know personally firsthand. I know that, you can do it with, Aussie football. I know that is, something that a lot of people in our group have done. But it's a it's it's an amazing way to make money, and those alternate lines at at at Pinnacle are great for it. Now sort of on the same conversation of the the top down approach, what you might find at sportsbook sportsbooks is where you don't have a middle, you might have an arb, or the arb makes no sense to take, but you do find outlying lines. And this is where you can transition into some plus EV bets, using Pinnacle as a cornerstone where you just do the the basic basic math. So if you have a line at Pinnacle that's minus 200 and you're getting what we call normal juice at another sportsbook for the same line, so minus 125 or better, The implied hit rate on minus 200 at Pinnacle is gonna be 66.7% of the time, so, 2 thirds of the time. Now there's a vague in that line.

Andrew Pace [00:49:32]:

You're gonna hit it closer to 61%, But we like to kinda round down, say, you're gonna hit it at 60%. So if you have a minus 200 line at Pinnacle and then you do have a minus 125 or better at another sportsbook, this is where you can start experimenting where you didn't have a middle. Right? You might not even have an arb. It might be plus 125 on the other side of that minus minus, 200. And or if you have an arb, it's cheap. It's and then you go, I don't even wanna click this. It's not worth the dollar or what whatever it is. But you know that you've got a bet that should hit it about 60% of the time based on the pinnacle line, and you can simply uncover those wagers and start transitioning into that form of betting.

Andrew Pace [00:50:23]:

Now what's challenging for someone that comes out of the world of closing bets and arbitrage and middling and all that kind of stuff is that just because it's gonna hit 60% of the time doesn't mean this one's gonna hit, and it doesn't mean the next 10 are gonna hit. And there's sometimes nights will reference Randy again where he goes, my pinnacle balance is way up. And that was a tough night for betting potentially for people that are doing this. Right? Yeah. So you have to be comfortable with the the prospect of even though the probability that you hit it over a sample size of a 1000 times is gonna land in and around 60, that you're never gonna not have where you flipped a weighted coin a 1000 times where the 40% didn't hit a few times in a row. Exactly. Potentially 10 times in a row. And that's Shane, you know something about, 13 losses

Shane Mercer [00:51:21]:

haha

Andrew Pace [00:51:23]:

Why don't why don't we bring that up right now? Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:51:25]:

Yeah. I had a rough day on Saturday, a rough start to the day on Saturday. Anyway, losing 13 wagers in a row. Ugh. That was, that was tough in the moment. Very, very difficult in the moment. Had to take a little break and walk away and, and come back. I was able to recoup some of that, but not all of it.

Shane Mercer [00:51:42]:

And and that's that's that's betting. You know, you're gonna have days that better like that. And, you know, this is a this is a I'm deploying a strategy there where, at this time of year, I'm expecting to hit at about a 70% clip. And it sure didn't feel like that at that moment.

Andrew Pace [00:51:59]:

Doesn't mean doesn't mean you're gonna doesn't mean you're not gonna lose. But we had a monster we had a monster day monster day on Saturday as a group. Right? And the best way we're we are the compass. inplayLIVE is the compass. Now as a as a member of inplayLIVE, do you follow that? And the answer is yes. Of course, you do to an extent.

Shane Mercer [00:52:19]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:52:19]:

Can you get every line? No. Of course, you can't. Can you join for some? Yeah. Of course, you can. Are you off doing your own thing? Well, for a lot of members, the answer is no. And for a lot of members, the answer is yes. And there's a reason why you're off doing your own thing. It's what you just said.

Andrew Pace [00:52:35]:

You're expecting to hit this wager at 70%. And whether it's 60 or 70, it's it's it's got an amazing expected value, but doesn't mean you're not gonna lose a bunch in a row. And 13 is a tough pill to swallow. It's tough pill to swallow. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:52:49]:

It was it was it was it was challenging little little run there. But that that is why it's also kind of nice, to, like you said, sort of, you know, have, have the livestream up as something that you can go back to and fall back on. And I think, I actually think it was a couple of calls, from one of our pros that that, got me my first, two wins of the day that day. So it was nice. I thanked him for it. Nice. Yeah. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:53:15]:

Yeah. Yeah. Shout out to Tim. Hawkeye Tim. Thanks for coming through for me that day, buddy.

Andrew Pace [00:53:21]:

Yeah. But and, again, I think when you're working with a community and you have a team of people to help you through the challenging times to pick you up, maybe there's times I know where I'm just like, I I'm not calling another fucking bet tonight. I'll take other bets, but I'm not calling another fucking bet tonight. And it's because you're dealing with a little bit of the struggles and the grind, and you just wanna hear someone else say the thing that you would have said yourself. You just need that that little bit of it's almost like a pat on the back without getting one. That that reassurance where you go, there is expected value on this. We just lost a few, but we still have to take this next one. This is a great opportunity, and it doesn't mean it's gonna come through.

Andrew Pace [00:53:57]:

But, yeah, sometimes some sometimes that's that's precisely, what you need.

Shane Mercer [00:54:03]:

Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. We talked a lot about middling here, PACE. We talked a lot about arbing and that kind of thing. I I called what you do live origination. There are people out there who do live modeling. I mean, you know, these are

Andrew Pace [00:54:17]:

We do live modeling.

Shane Mercer [00:54:18]:

Yeah. Right there. You you definitely do a lot of live modeling, I would say, particularly when it comes to to hockey.

Andrew Pace [00:54:24]:

Right? Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely.

Shane Mercer [00:54:26]:

And and, you know, taking advantage of things, again, late in a period, late in the game. And that's sort of, I would say that that's kind of the main way that that, you win and that the team at inplayLIVE wins.

Andrew Pace [00:54:41]:

Sure. Yeah. I like to call it for love of the game. Right? So, like, line discrepancies and all that kind of stuff, I I have always come up betting the opposite of that. I have always come up where I and you'll hear me say it on stream all the time, Shane. I would love to bet this if this line existed, and I haven't even looked at a line yet. And you'll see our chat go. I'll say 6a half, and I'll see a chat go 5a half at MGM, 6a half at Pinnacle.

Andrew Pace [00:55:08]:

Right? Like, they start saying it. And then other times, it's like, pace, that that line's not even close to what is being offered. Right? And and there's times where I create a theoretical bet that I'd wanna make in my head, and and it's not a it like, my line would be a bad line, and I still would want it because that's the way I I am essentially analyzing, that particular, game or half or or whatever the case may be. And that's just that's just always how I've bet. I've been a a watch, watch the game, the out the the motivations, all those types of things, potentially the injuries, and and then and then go go to bet from from there. And, it's been successful for me, but I think it's really important for other people that they understand that what we've brought up today is it's like a fail safe approach that doesn't require, you know, advanced modeling or anything like that. It simply, requires a couple of sportsbooks to to go ahead and and obviously, look at the discrepancies between them. And and, again, you're just never gonna see these types of opportunities pregame

Shane Mercer [00:56:15]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:56:16]:

Compared to compared to what you see live.

Shane Mercer [00:56:18]:

So, I think I think that this is a a a great opportunity to shout out the master class, at inplayLIVE when it comes to the various different sports because we can't get into all of the the the exact strategies for how we deploy, each strategy for each sport at the end of games or at the end of quarters and that kind of thing that is not middling and it's not arbitrage, but it's straight betting. And it's it's sort of using, it is kind of that using the strategies and the data that's been compiled over time to to make, to make betting decisions in those moments. So, you know, that that's that's where that lives, and there's there's a whole bunch of material there, that pace that that you've created and and a lot of the other pros have have, you know, added to along the way. And so all of that, exists within the, inplayLIVE masterclass. Masterclass. So I just wanted to kind of put that out there because people might be wondering, well, how come you didn't tell us exactly how to bet, you know, the end of a basketball game or tell us exactly how to bet the end of an NHL game? It's all out there, and it's it it it it is available. And, I just wanted to make sure that that that people are aware that that that stuff out there exists and that there are so many ways to take those strategies and apply them and win even on a sharp book like Pinnacle.

Andrew Pace [00:57:37]:

Right. And and going back to the the same thing with live, you you lose your accounts, when you win money. It's just the the reality of this business. When you identify a pregame middle, a pregame arb, pregame closing line value, whatever it is, it's crazy how many sportsbooks will clip you regardless of the outcome of the game. That happens live as well. I would say there's a higher probability of you falling under the radar with live wagers because there's less evidence of, I guess, an extended period of time where that line, was egregiously soft to the point that they would say this person knows precisely what they're doing, in this circumstance. So you can fall under the radar and have a little bit of a longer leash. Now on that note, I'm gonna give a shout out to FanDuel who obviously is not a a a sponsor of this podcast like Pinnacle is.

Andrew Pace [00:58:35]:

But if you just have a Pinnacle and a FanDuel when you're limited on FanDuel, you still have a decent, spin that you can get in on a game. I don't use FanDuel because I'm not in Ontario, and I'm not in the States. But, I know for a lot of people, just that that marriage of Pinnacle and FanDuel is a really nice way to to profit long term doing some of the things that we've we've talked about in this episode so far.

Andrew Pace [00:58:58]:

And I do think that we should get into, Shane, I think we should get into, how I've used Pinnacle.

Shane Mercer [00:59:04]:

Yeah I was just gonna say because that that's a whole other, that's using Pinnacle to navigate an entirely different problem in this space. I haven't had to use Pinnacle myself in the way pace that you're about to kind of walk us through. But this is that and that is simply because I live in a regulated market in Ontario where, if I have an issue with a book paying or or it's thinking about not paying, I can very easily go to the regulator or threaten to go to the regulator. And, I've had a lot of success that way with getting books to just cave instantly and just be, like, fine. Here, you know, what? We'll pay you out. And even with, with with some of the, offshore books, I haven't had to use as many, perhaps less reputable offshore books. I have had had to use some and I have had some some issues with some offshore books, but I've I've always been able to get my money out of an offshore book. But, Pace, I know that's not the case for you.

Andrew Pace [01:00:02]:

Yeah. I'm actually coming off of a a really big weekend, and I've got tens and tens of 1,000 of money that is I don't know if I'm gonna get, like, straight up. It's

Shane Mercer [01:00:15]:

Like, you're sitting there, you had an a monster weekend, and you're going, now I gotta hope this book pays.

Andrew Pace [01:00:21]:

Like, I have multiple accounts under review. Again, we're going we're getting into some offshore stuff. Right? But, like, let me give you guys an example of let's say you're using, like, a PPH, like, a bookie site local bookie site. Right? And he can't pay you or he's he's run on you. Right? What I'm about to go through gives you an ace up your sleeve to get your money or get some of your money.

Shane Mercer [01:00:47]:

At least get some of your money back. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:00:49]:

I helped a member with it, last night.

Shane Mercer [01:00:51]:

Oh.

Andrew Pace [01:00:52]:

He's got a sports book, and he's in a situation where he doesn't think he's gonna get paid. The verification is crossing the line for him, and he doesn't want the sportsbook that he believes to not be reputable to have, the information that they've asked for.

Shane Mercer [01:01:06]:

Well, you know, sometimes sending a stool sample can get a little messy, I mean. Yeah. Right?

Andrew Pace [01:01:11]:

So So I said to him, hey. Do you have Pinnacle? And he goes, yeah. I do. And I'm like, well, here's what you're gonna do. So I'm in the process of doing this, I would say to an extent always. I love it when I'm not, but Pinnacle simply as a more or less guaranteed way to get your money out of your sportsbooks without going to regulators and complaining is a tremendous one. And what's crazy is is I've gone to forums. We've talked about this, like ask gamblers and gone, hey.

Andrew Pace [01:01:42]:

This is what happened with my money. And because I went down that route, they locked my account and kicked me out. But I had access before. They just weren't paying me. So I still had access to sportsbooks.

Shane Mercer [01:01:54]:

You could still lose all your money there essentially. Like, there's like, hey, commodities.

Andrew Pace [01:02:00]:

I'm limited and it takes work, but I still can make bets. So we're I'm gonna use the NFL slate this weekend as an example of how you could move money out of your sports book, and it costs you money. You are paying Pinnacle a fee to do this, and you are rewarding the sports book that won't pay you. So the simplest form of this is we're gonna take the Texas Chiefs. It's a very good example. You would take the huge underdog at your sportsbook that you're limited at or is not paying you. You would put as much of your balance that you can cover or bet depending on the two circumstances on the Texans to win the game. Now the Texans are paying about plus, 370, in in, on sportsbooks right now.

Andrew Pace [01:02:50]:

There's a chance that you can find a game. I'm just using this as the first example I looked at where you can get less of a VIG and closer to an arb to do this. But you would take Houston Moneyline for the max bet you can on the sports book that you need to move money out of. And then over at Pinnacle, you would take the profit from that bet, and you would put it all on the Chiefs Moneyline. Now you lost money doing this, But if you go through a lawyer to get your money, you usually have to pay them fees. It's you're getting something back out of the equation. If the Texans win, that sucks. But over time, when you keep doing this, the money will shift over to Pinnacle where you're gonna have no problem getting your funds out.

Andrew Pace [01:03:41]:

Now there's another layer to this that you can do. And the reason there's two reasons why I'm gonna bring up this next way of doing this. The first reason is that it further ensures the money moves to Pinnacle. So if the Texans win, the money's the money grew at the sports book that you're trying to get the money out of. Right? You bring in a second game. Okay? So I'm gonna again use this weekend as an example. The Lions are minus 8a half right now at home to the command, to the Commandos, they're minus 600 on the money line. At the sports book that you're trying to move your money out of, you would take the Texans money line, parlayed with the commandos money line, which is a very low probability of hitting.

Andrew Pace [01:04:26]:

And, of course, if it hits that balance, it's gonna grow even more. But what that does is it ensures more money moves over to Pinnacle on a more consistent basis. Yes. It might cost you a little bit more money. But number 2, and this is the big reason why I do it, oftentimes, my limited accounts will give me a bigger pregame max bet on a parlay Mhmm. Than it would on a single. So I might go and click the Houston Moneyline, and my max bet might be $50. But then I go click Houston and the Commandos, which pays out way more.

Andrew Pace [01:05:01]:

Right? And it might let me do it for a $150 because they see that their probability, is is, they want that bet, essentially.

Shane Mercer [01:05:11]:

Yeah. They have a much higher chance of taking more of your money.

Andrew Pace [01:05:14]:

Now at Pinnacle, you have to make 3 separate bets. You have to cover all the outcomes. So you'd have to take in this example, you'd have to take the Chiefs' money line with the Lions' money line, the Chiefs' money line with the Commander's money line, and the Lions' money line with the Texans' money line. So you have to cover out all three other outcomes. But because of that, the odds of the money filtering over to Pinnacle, is much higher. Now the reason why I say this is an ace up your sleeve. Let's say it's a bookie that runs on you. Let's say it's a a a sports book that, you still have access to the account, but you know they're not paying you.

Andrew Pace [01:05:45]:

I have an account right now where I clicked withdraw on October 1, 2024. I have access to the account. My max bets are about $250. There's 5,000 US in there. It's nothing crazy, but I want the money. I'm not gonna leave it there. So I filter the money through doing these parlays because I get a bigger bigger amount down on the parlays and and shift it over to Pinnacle doing that. But, again, I still have access.

Andrew Pace [01:06:12]:

Whereas the ace up your sleeve is going to the shady book and saying, look. I'm gonna level with you guys. I know you're not paying me. Right? The bookie, hey. I know you're not paying me. Can you please give me access to my account, and can you please let me play there even for x dollars? I just need to lose the money out of the account.

Shane Mercer [01:06:31]:

Just tell them straight up. Have you had that conversation? Like, where you've gone and said, look, guys. Just let me lose the money here, please. And and and what's the response like?

Andrew Pace [01:06:42]:

Usually, they don't respond. Oh, okay. Usually, they don't respond at all because they think that me doing that somehow will implicate them. Right. But that's where on a one to 1 or personal level, they're like, oh, you're just gonna lose the money out of the account and then great.

Shane Mercer [01:06:57]:

Right.

Andrew Pace [01:06:57]:

But whether it's whether it's low priced pregame bets, like low vig, low cost pregame bets, or whether it's getting money out of a a shady sports book or using it as, like, this top down approach, it's it's a cornerstone. It's something that if you have in your back pocket and you know how to use it, you'd be crazy not to integrate these systems, into your your live betting or your just your successful betting journey.

Shane Mercer [01:07:30]:

Yeah. 100%. Yeah. That's, I I hope not to run into that problem. But if I do, I know I have a way to get out, which is which is

Andrew Pace [01:07:37]:

I have, like, 4 books I'm gonna be working on this week from last weekend. We're gonna be doing it. But but here's the thing, Shane. Now here's the next conversation. Let's say you're playing on a short shady sports book that you know will never pay you, but their lines are so soft that you know you can do this and you still do the math and you go, it's worth it.

Shane Mercer [01:08:04]:

It's worth it. Yeah. Yeah. It's gonna be worth it for sure.

Andrew Pace [01:08:08]:

Yeah. So that's my story.

Shane Mercer [01:08:10]:

There you go. No. Hey. It's a it's a great it's another you know, again, though, you have to have you have to have the pinnacle account to be able to do it in the first place. There there's really no downside to at least having the account. You know? And and and, yeah, it's just like you said. It's an ace in the back pocket, and it's, it's super valuable. Okay.

Shane Mercer [01:08:31]:

Well, I think we've covered off quite a few ways, that you can, you know, leverage, a Sharp book like Pinnacle to your advantage to actually win money, over time. Pace, you've got a contest. Tell us about the contest that we're gonna do here.

Andrew Pace [01:08:48]:

You know, it's crazy, Shane. When you brought that up, I totally forgot about it.

Shane Mercer [01:08:52]:

And we'll get, like, one of us remembers.

Andrew Pace [01:08:54]:

Okay. So for 2025, we're committed to giving away 4,000 US dollars, and we wanna encourage people to responsibly win money as sports bettors. And we our contest is essentially gonna help fund your journey and your bankroll. So once a quarter, what we're gonna be doing is funding someone's Pinnacle account with a 1,000 US dollars, for whomever we select, for for each of these contests. Now the contest is is going to start right away, and how you enter is really simple. All you have to do is send a screenshot of your Pinnacle account, full screen, corner to corner, with a wager placed in that account of $10. No more, no more is required if you wanna send a bigger bet slip, by all means.

Shane Mercer [01:09:48]:

$10 minimum? $10 minimum. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:09:50]:

Place that wager at Pinnacle, and all you you do is send that screenshot with your details to, Sabrina on Discord. So you cannot email her. You have to send it to her on Discord. So if you're not a member of our free Discord channel, you have to join that in order to be eligible, and you need to be able to make the the bet on Pinnacle. If you don't have a Pinnacle account, go to pinnacle.comforward/inplaylive. And, if you have any questions about how to acquire 1, you can also contact Sabrina as well. So Sabrina on our Discord server will generate those entries, and, we're already 2 weeks into this quarter, but we'll be doing the the giveaway. I guess that would be, what, January, February, March.

Andrew Pace [01:10:33]:

Yeah. In the March March 1st.

Shane Mercer [01:10:35]:

There you go. Per amazing. So once every 3 months, once a quarter, a 1,000 USD to the winner. Wow. What a deal. That's amazing. You know, all you have to do is post a $10 bet. Hopefully, your bet wins.

Shane Mercer [01:10:49]:

Maybe it's a middle. Right? You don't have to tell us if it's a middle or not. Just place to place it there. And, you know, there you go. You're off and running. That's a great contest. Look forward to seeing the winners. If you want to post them in the comments, show us your bet slips in the comments and maybe spark a little conversation about about what it is exactly that you're betting, why you bet it, that kind of thing.

Shane Mercer [01:11:10]:

I'd love to hear about it. And, you know, that that's a way to kind of keep this conversation rolling about how to leverage a sharp look like. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:11:18]:

And if people have any questions about any of the topics that we brought up today, just obviously fire away. Yeah. If you're in our Discord server, you can DM either Shane or or myself. You can comment below on the the comments. You can find us on Instagram, Twitter, etcetera.

Shane Mercer [01:11:30]:

Yep. At inplayLIVE out there. So there's so many ways, to to reach us and, yeah, show us those bets. Looking looking forward to to seeing what people decide to to bet on and and what kind of wagers they're they're gonna place. Alright. Pace, anything else before we move on? I think that's it. Right? Alright.

Andrew Pace [01:11:48]:

That's it.

Shane Mercer [01:11:48]:

Time for the gridiron grind. Let's go. Alright. Gridiron grind time. John Wilson is here with us. John, how are you, buddy?

GosuThune [01:12:00]:

Good. Good. How are you guys?

Shane Mercer [01:12:01]:

Good, man. Good. Good to bring you in. I referenced you in the earlier part of the show there. We were talking about modeling origination, and I know you do quite a bit of that yourself. Right?

GosuThune [01:12:09]:

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [01:12:10]:

Yeah. Yeah. We were talking about ways to win, and, that that's one way to go about it. And, that's why we like to bring you on for this segment because we know that you're doing a lot of that stuff when it comes to football, both college and NFL. And, it's been a lot of fun over the course of the season so far having you come in and participate in the segment. And I know you've helped Pace win a few teasers, right, Pace? The fuck, Shane? Given all the credit to John. Yeah. But I mean, look, it's an assist, right? He's he's definitely giving an an assist on those teaser victories that you that you're, you know, calling out for the masses there.

Andrew Pace [01:12:46]:

No. A 100%. I mean, it's all about teamwork and discussing different things. I I really I think my best strength is a as a pregame teaser pro is staying away from games where I would identify what I think has a high blowout potential. And and that's why, like, last week, I'd I home I don't I again, no data to back this, but home teams in the playoffs, like, the Chiefs this week. Chiefs are, like, blowout potential 0 out of 10. But I don't know what it is about home teams waiting for opponents in in as favorites on these first two playoff weekends. There's a lot of destruction in those games.

Andrew Pace [01:13:25]:

I don't think the Chiefs are necessarily gonna blow out the the the Texans, but, let's put it this way. I wouldn't want the Commanders at plus 14 on a teaser this week even though the math might make sense for that. I think there's a high blowout potential there.

Shane Mercer [01:13:40]:

Right. Yeah. Yeah. If if the Chiefs do blow out the Texans, I think that'd be their 1st blowout of the season. Yeah. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:13:48]:

Or yeah.

GosuThune [01:13:49]:

They already they blew them out the first time. They don't think the Texans scored.

Shane Mercer [01:13:52]:

Did they really? I I forget what that what was that? When was that?

GosuThune [01:13:55]:

The game. Right? Then they they I think I don't think the Texans scored.

Shane Mercer [01:13:58]:

Yeah. Right. They scored 2 points. They got the safety earlier in the day. Yeah. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:14:02]:

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Baltimore, wasn't it? Wasn't that Baltimore?

GosuThune [01:14:08]:

I thought that those, Texans Texas

Andrew Pace [01:14:10]:

You're right. You're right.

Shane Mercer [01:14:11]:

You're right. You're right. Yeah. Yep. Yep.

Andrew Pace [01:14:13]:

You're right. Well, I guess I'll just get into my teaser then right away.

Shane Mercer [01:14:16]:

That's it. Let's hear it.

Andrew Pace [01:14:17]:

Another another win, which was awesome last week. And, hopefully, people when they when they say this like, I did say that if if the Ravens got below 9, that I like them at 2a half or less. So I actually hit 3 teasers over the weekend because I had I ended up adding Ravens into combinations of of what I took. It's it's as simple as it it sounds this week. It's it's the Chiefs lines. You need to right now, you can get 7a half and 8a half. So both of those need to be under 2a half for it to be an official take. But, yeah, that's a that's a must bet teaser in my mind.

Andrew Pace [01:14:49]:

Oh, Shane. I forgot to bring this up in the pinnacle stuff, but it's important when talking about those parlays and moving your money out of the account. Yeah. Exceptional opportunities where you can really close the Viggin are where you have 2 minus 6 teasers where pushes aren't losses.

Shane Mercer [01:15:10]:

Oh, yeah. Okay.

Andrew Pace [01:15:11]:

You get normal juice on the 2 money lines when the money line otherwise would have paid about minus 1 40. If you can when you're moving money from book to book, teasers can be an amazing way to do it. So I forgot to bring that up. That's a great strategy, for moving money, that can lead to closer to ARBs as opposed to, you know, paying as make you pay less juice. Right.

Shane Mercer [01:15:37]:

Okay. Hey. Noted. There you go. Good. There you guys go. Another little little piece of advice there. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [01:15:43]:

There you go. Okay. We've got your teaser out of the way. So it just officially it's it's Lions Chiefs,

Andrew Pace [01:15:49]:

2 and a half or less.

Shane Mercer [01:15:50]:

2 and a half or less. There you go.

Andrew Pace [01:15:51]:

On a 6 point teaser.

Shane Mercer [01:15:52]:

On a 6 point teaser. Yeah. Okay. Let's do a little college football before we get into the NFL playoffs. We are at the championship game. John, what are we what are we looking at here?

GosuThune [01:16:05]:

Yeah. The so Ohio State, I think people are gonna forget how close that game was based on the fact that it looks like a 2 touchdown victory, but Texas first and goal, the chance to tie the game.

Andrew Pace [01:16:17]:

Should have tried the game.

GosuThune [01:16:19]:

So, Ohio State opened a huge favorite against Notre Dame who, had a thrilling win against Penn State as a back and forth game. So Ohio State opened, I think, 9, 8a half, 9, 9a half. I know the I think the day after it opened, I was able to get 10 at our friends at Pinnacle. I paid a little bit of juice. I think I got minus 114 on that 10. I think it's it's down to 8 now.

GosuThune [01:16:45]:

I think it's probably gonna close around 7a half, 8. I don't think it'll ever touch 7, but, you know, I think that's an interesting game. I think Ohio State still that everybody's kind of penciled them in, you know, week after week is since they had that really big win against Tennessee as just like the the de facto winner of it all. I do think 10 was just as too many points to pass up. I think Notre Dame just they've gotten they're that team that's just really lucky. Everything's going their way. They get all the bounces.

GosuThune [01:17:14]:

They get a lot of close calls. They get the fumbles. Like, all that stuff just kinda working out for them. And it just seems like it's probably gonna be one of those games that's gonna be close. I think they both can run the ball. I think Ohio State specifically has a really good matchup running the ball just like I think couple weeks ago, we talked about Penn State had a really good matchup running the ball against Notre Dame. We saw that to be true, especially in the first half when Penn State really looked like the the much better team there. But, you know, I think it comes down to Chip Kelly.

GosuThune [01:17:38]:

Like, is he just gonna run between the tackles, or is he gonna get into his bag of east west and try to do all sorts of stuff? You know? It really, I think, comes down to him because I think there's a really easy path to victory for them and just controlling the clock, running the ball, and Notre Dame's struggling to stop that, but we'll see we'll see what he does. And on the other side, I think Notre Dame can have some success running, especially with Riley Leonard. I think Ohio State's kinda struggled against some mobile quarterbacks this year. So we'll see, what they can do to keep it close.

Shane Mercer [01:18:05]:

I think there's a big time hype train as sort of a casual college observer, a big time hype train on on, Ohio State. Do you think that the public will, you know, hammer Ohio State and and perhaps move that line more?

GosuThune [01:18:22]:

I don't see it going back up close to 10 again. I think I think the public also has kind of fallen in love with the Notre Dame story just because of, and, like, the how how I mean, they beat Georgia. They beat they beat Penn State in that in that game.

Shane Mercer [01:18:37]:

Little Cinderella type story kind of developing that? Yeah. Okay.

GosuThune [01:18:41]:

Plus, I think the Ohio State is by far the largest number of tickets that on any team to win the Natty. So, like, the public already has them essentially in this game

Shane Mercer [01:18:50]:

Okay. Right.

GosuThune [01:18:51]:

At plus money or better. So I I think the books I think the books are just in trouble no matter what in this game. I think, unfortunately, for them that their their year of of losses has not come to an end quite yet.

Shane Mercer [01:19:03]:

I love to hear that.

Andrew Pace [01:19:04]:

Do you think, do you think people will be enticed by the Notre Dame Money Line because that's it's just one game, so they they want a high payout, that being a prospect? And then the other side of it is, do you think people will tease Ohio State with with some picks from the weekend?

GosuThune [01:19:20]:

Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. I mean, who who's not gonna have Ohio State, the Chiefs, and the Lions, in in a teaser this weekend?

Andrew Pace [01:19:28]:

We wont.

GosuThune [01:19:31]:

I mean, honestly, if it's if this week's like any other week this year, that will just win easily because everybody had, you know, the the Eagles, Ravens, Bills, Moneyline Parlay that paid normal juice or even plus money, this weekend, and I don't think anybody was really sweating that, from the moment those games started. So, you know, it's just been it's how it's been this year. Right.

Andrew Pace [01:19:54]:

Well, I mean, I guess the chargers, a lot of people were behind the chargers.

GosuThune [01:19:58]:

The chargers chargers and the commanders were pub were, like, the 2 public road teams this weekend. Yeah. So they got they got we went 1 for 2.

Shane Mercer [01:20:06]:

Okay. Right. Okay. Alright. Well, let's

GosuThune [01:20:08]:

The public public went 4 for 5 in the in the wild card round.

Shane Mercer [01:20:11]:

So so the public just keeps that. Monday. Yeah. Public keeps rolling.

GosuThune [01:20:15]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:20:15]:

What I'll what I'll say is I I saw Ohio State as a beatable football team, this this past week, and I don't think Texas played well. I don't think Texas played well against Arizona State. We saw Arizona State really be the team that could have won the game, and then we saw Ohio State in a position where Texas, they were 1st and goal at the 1. And Sark ran the ball straight across the 9 yard line on 1st and goal at the 1 while the whole line collapsed and and tackled him. It just it it left left an impossible, situation for their offense to overcome when they just needed to they ran the ball on first down straight at the straight at the line. But just because it didn't work for 1 yard then doesn't mean you don't do it 3 more times. Like, you've gotta pound that ball in, and and doing something way back behind the line of scrimmage typically isn't gonna be the the path to freedom. I'm not saying Ohio State's gonna lose that game.

Andrew Pace [01:21:09]:

I just saw that they were definitely beatable in that game.

GosuThune [01:21:11]:

Yep. Oh, yeah. I agree.

Shane Mercer [01:21:14]:

Alright. Over to the NFL. Let's start things off here with the Houston Texans visiting the Kansas City Chiefs.

GosuThune [01:21:23]:

Yeah. So the Christmas Day rematch, the Christmas Day

Shane Mercer [01:21:26]:

Can the Texans score more than 2.

GosuThune [01:21:28]:

Rematch. Yeah. So the the, this line opened at 8, I think, and it got bet up a little bit, and then it's gone back down. So it's kind of kind of interesting little tug of war that's going on early. I see it personally. Yeah. It's kinda bounced around there. I think it's I think it's too many points.

GosuThune [01:21:48]:

I think this says under a touchdown kind of line for me. I make it about 6. So I definitely take a little bit of the of the Texans, but I agree. Like, I just I have a hard time imagining the Chiefs losing this game. But, you know, that's just kind of the way the Chiefs play. It's they they don't they don't take care of business a lot against these teams. They kinda play with their food. Even in the playoffs, we've seen it kinda year after year.

GosuThune [01:22:11]:

So I think I I will definitely take the points, but what I like more is the under. I think it could be windy and snowy potentially there. Definitely windy. And these are 2 of the top rated defenses. I think that Houston Texans defense played really well. They played great. Against the chargers.

Shane Mercer [01:22:25]:

Yeah.

GosuThune [01:22:26]:

So I just think you know, the Chiefs, they they they definitely know how to put together 10 minute drives in the second half and really ice it.

GosuThune [01:22:33]:

So so under 42 is still out there as we are recording right now. 42 is kind of a dead number. So anything 41 and a half or or or higher, I really like in that game.

Shane Mercer [01:22:43]:

Nice. Awesome. Why don't we stay in the AFC, and and look at that picture? Because I think this next game might just be, like, the game of the week, maybe the game of the playoffs. I think there's a lot of hype around this rated

Andrew Pace [01:22:57]:

The the Bills game. This game should be the AFC championship, but then you can't ignore the Chiefs. There should be an AFC championship where they just all the 3 of them play each other. It's a new format, new rules. The the Chiefs offense takes the field. If they score, the Bills defense comes on the field, like, you know Three way game. Yeah. We need a three way game to settle this AFC.

Andrew Pace [01:23:20]:

Right? And part of me thinks to myself, whomever emerges from that, are they more beat up and not ready for the AFC championship, or did they just win such a big game that they're ready for anything and they just run over the AFC and the NFC in the Super Bowl? I I I really don't know, but I think that that game could be decimating to both sides with how hard it's gonna be to to play and win and and, hopefully, how exciting it is. And then, yeah, the other side is they just freaking come out rumbling from from such a big momentum as victory. I can't believe the Bills are plus 1 at home. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [01:23:59]:

Yeah. I I yeah. Plus 1, plus 1a half. Alright, John. What what what do you think here?

Shane Mercer [01:24:06]:

Yeah. Well, another outdoor game, though, too. I know, you know, I'm not too far from Buffalo, and, it it's been, you know, pretty cool. And we got lots of snow, and and I don't know what's in the forecast, you know, for a week from now. But, yeah, I mean, it should be interesting.

GosuThune [01:24:23]:

Yeah. So this line, I think opened bills minus 1a half, and then it moved to the other side. And so, what I thought was really interesting is that, you know, when I when I model the game and I make a line for a game, I I can go as many decimal places as I want. It's like a formula that I have, and it goes you know, it's it's a fraction of a point. But so, normally, I just cap it at, like, a tenth of a point. So let's say, like, you know, for instance, I have, I have the Chiefs minus 5.7. So I just said it's, like, minus 6, right, or, like, minus 5 and a half, 5.

Andrew Pace [01:24:56]:

Sure. Sure.

GosuThune [01:24:57]:

This game, I actually have point007. So I'm at, like, as about as much of a pick as as you can have a game be a pick. And so I think this line might just get batted around a little bit where teams or people are just taking plus money on both sides or a point on both sides or teasing whichever side. I definitely like the Bills side. If I can get plus 7a half with Josh Allen at home, I feel like I'm especially against this Ravens secondary, I feel like I'm always in that. I think that's a really good, teaser leg, not the ones that we'd mentioned, but I think that that is a good one. That one and a half is available on a couple books right now. So you you can do that teaser.

GosuThune [01:25:33]:

My thing again with this game, it's, the weather. I I'm really shocked the books are hanging 51a half as the total in this game for what could potentially be a very bad weather game. So I went and looked at the weather. It depends on your where you're sourcing it from, what you're looking at. The weather station that's actually located at the Bills Stadium says there's a high chance of fog and there and there's a visibility warning. And then in addition, potentially snow and high winds. So you could get a game where it's, I mean, you've seen it like that lake effect or that fog and the cold where, like, you can't see more than 15 feet in front of you. Right? So it's hard to complete passes with high high wind, but it's even harder when you can't see the target you're throwing to.

GosuThune [01:26:17]:

So, like, I don't really see much downside in taking a huge position on this under. And then if you just if the weather looks okay and you you don't like how much exposure you have, just get out, later probably with the middle because I think the sharp money is gonna come in on the under here. But I think it potentially if the weather is really, really bad, this total could go as low as, like, 45, 46. Like, I could see it really dropping as if this were the weather estimate for I mean, this was Friday instead of Monday, I think this total will be in the mid forties and not in the fifties.

Shane Mercer [01:26:46]:

Right. This game being played in the evening as well, so it will be dark. You know, kickoff time is 6:30 PM EST, which is, well into sundown, here on on this side of the world at this point. And, you know, I know people are hearing this come out on Wednesday, so the line may have moved. That total may have moved. John might bet that line down himself, if possibly. But, yeah, 51a half is a high number. I've got it.

Shane Mercer [01:27:15]:

I've got to put this out there too, because I know voting's completed. There was the, you know, people know the outcome of the regular season MVP. But it is like, you know, on social media, it is a clash of titans between between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. How much does this quarterback matchup just factor into everything with this MVP conversation looming over at all?

GosuThune [01:27:43]:

I mean, I I you know, it's I I think maybe for Allen, it matters a lot because he hasn't don't think he's won one yet. Right? Has not. But the but Lamar has a couple. I don't know that. I think Lamar's the the monkey on Lamar's back is actually winning in the playoffs. So I think, like, for him, I'm not sure that any of this even really matters. But, and I'm not even sure he's, like, maybe the most important person on his team for this game because I think Derek Henry in running the ball, especially if that weather is bad. Like, it's another reason I like the under.

GosuThune [01:28:11]:

I think both these teams just wanna run the ball. So I think this clock could be moving the whole game. So, yeah, I think it's a it's a really big win. It's a really big game for both teams, but I think it's really important for for Lamar Jackson.

Andrew Pace [01:28:25]:

We also saw the Bills against the Niners in a snow game this year, and the game was won on the ground. There's no question about it. The Bills thumped them. They are not the Ravens. We know that. But you have to give the weather edge to the Bills. I think a lot of bettors will give the weather edge to Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. And that makes sense.

Shane Mercer [01:28:48]:

Derrick Henry. You know, if I think of a bad weather game, I think Derrick Henry, you know, shines.

Andrew Pace [01:28:54]:

But that that makes sense. You go this is the more dominant running back of the 2 teams, but the Bills run game is exceptional. Josh Allen running is exceptional. Yes. Lamar Jackson's a better runner than Josh Allen, but it is exceptional.

Shane Mercer [01:29:11]:

That's debate. I think people are you know, reasonable people could debate that with you for sure. You know?

Andrew Pace [01:29:15]:

Once a little James Cook is exceptional. Right? Yeah. Is he Derrick Henry? No. He's not Derrick Henry. No. But they're in their building with their psychotic fans jumping off the top of the stadium onto the field. Like, they're it's gonna be it's gonna be electric no matter the weather. And I agree with John.

Andrew Pace [01:29:34]:

Like, that that niners game, I think I don't know what the game total was in that game. It ended up being 3510 final. I remember that. We made so much fucking money on that game. Yeah. Yeah. With player props and and various things we're looking at.

Shane Mercer [01:29:46]:

Yeah. Yeah.

GosuThune [01:29:47]:

Pretty game of salts.

Andrew Pace [01:29:51]:

Right? But, you know, I'm I'm ready for it. I'm here for it, and I think, I think there's I know why people would bet on Baltimore. I get it. But the Bills at home in the snow is that's their stadium, their game. There's a reason why they're not putting a roof on the new building. Let's put it that way.

Shane Mercer [01:30:08]:

Well, I'm I'm just excited to sit back and watch that game. I think that's gonna be it's just gonna be awesome. Okay. Let's let's keep it rolling here. The Washington Commandos heading to Detroit. I'm not sure that, you know, people perhaps thought that this would be the matchup on the NFC side and that this would be the team going to meet Detroit. But here we are. I think it opened at 7 and a half, John, and I see it's moved to 9 and a half.

Shane Mercer [01:30:34]:

What what do you think, though?

GosuThune [01:30:36]:

Yeah. That makes sense. I make it about 8a half, 9. Okay. So I think Lions getting the the proper respect here in the in the market. I think Pace talked about this at the beginning, but or or at the beginning of this segment when I came on with the the the blowout potential in this game is very high, especially because of Washington's defense. But, I mean, I think also Washington has ability to score. Yeah.

GosuThune [01:30:57]:

This total is astronomical. It is, like, 56. It is a high it's a high college total.

Shane Mercer [01:31:02]:

It opened at 49a half, and, yeah, I'm seeing it up to 55a half 56. So it's been better.

GosuThune [01:31:09]:

So the I I think, one way I wanna attack this game is I don't really wanna side here unless I am teasing the lions. One one way I wanna attack this game is, looking to bet turnovers because the total is so high and these are 2 of the highest going forward on 4th down teams in the league. I think you're gonna be seeing numbers, like, especially when the lions have the ball, 12.0, 13.0, even on 3rd and shorts for turnovers because of how high the total is and how much the books are gonna have to the algorithms are gonna expect they score a touchdown every time they get the ball. And those numbers are just gonna be massive. I think even if you just bet it blindly on every drive, the chance you come out on top is really high. That there's just no turnovers in the game, seems unlikely, right, given the amount of 4th downs we're probably gonna see. And they're both gonna sucker each other in doing it. It might be a situation where you don't think you can punt or kick field goals to stay in the game.

GosuThune [01:32:00]:

And we saw O'Connell get sucked into that that game with Dan, 2 weeks ago. Happened. Yeah. So, like, I think it's they're just both gonna get trapped in this thing, and we're gonna see I think we're gonna see teams going forward on 4th down a lot in this game. If they even get to 4th down, who knows? They might just score every time anyway. But, yeah, it's that's gonna be what I'm gonna look for.

Shane Mercer [01:32:18]:

Right.

Andrew Pace [01:32:19]:

Okay, John, Rams, Eagles?

Shane Mercer [01:32:21]:

Hey. Wait up, Matt Ed.

Andrew Pace [01:32:24]:

I didn't even I didn't even blink.

Shane Mercer [01:32:26]:

Take it take it easy there, guys. Alright. We we know alright. So we don't know the outcome of tonight's game recording on Monday.

Andrew Pace [01:32:32]:

Rams Eagles. Go ahead.

Shane Mercer [01:32:34]:

We're still in it, Pais. I've got my sweater. Okay? I'm gonna be emerging on Wednesday, and and it's gonna be, like, victory for me here. Alright, guys. I'm calling it now. Vikings, Eagles. What is it, John?

Shane Mercer [01:32:50]:

Lets play both out, though. Let's play both both scenarios. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:32:56]:

So that's relevant for the viewers that that know the outcome.

Shane Mercer [01:32:58]:

Or do you know the outcome?

Andrew Pace [01:32:59]:

Guys. We don't know the outcome, and, we could throw up a little write up in the comments of the podcast on Wednesday below on any thoughts on that game. I think that's the approach because we can't we're not gonna waste people's time where we're evaluating the version of the game that doesn't exist.

Shane Mercer [01:33:13]:

Okay. Okay. Let me let me throw this out to John. John, if it's Vikings, Eagles, what's the line?

GosuThune [01:33:20]:

Oh, okay.

Andrew Pace [01:33:21]:

That's cool.

GosuThune [01:33:22]:

I think the line will be 6 or no. Sorry. Vikings, Eagles, I think the line will be 3 or 3a half.

Shane Mercer [01:33:29]:

Okay.

GosuThune [01:33:30]:

Which is about that's that's I would make it about 3 personally. So if it's over 3, if I get 3a half, I will probably take the Vikings.

Shane Mercer [01:33:37]:

Okay. Okay. And if it's Rams, Eagles, what's the line?

GosuThune [01:33:41]:

I think it'll be on the other side of 6, but it it really depends on how if they win convincingly, then maybe it's not that high. But I only make it probably about 5, assuming nobody gets hurt or anything like that, and I don't see anything weird. So I, again, I would be on the dog. I kind of I think the Eagles are a little overvalued personally. They really haven't impressed me very much in a good while, and I know Hertz has been out, but he didn't look very good. And they they as a team, they didn't really look good very good except on defense against the Packers. I think a little bit of that was just kinda self destruction. Love just looked mopey and out of it that whole game.

GosuThune [01:34:14]:

And that team's they've had lost a bunch of people to injury. So I kinda just wanna fade the Eagles. I know that's not gonna go well in our community, but, I think that they're just a little overvalued right now, personally.

Andrew Pace [01:34:25]:

I think it'll go down just fine in our community. I think it'll go down just fine. Okay. 3 of the 4 divisional games are outdoors. 3 of the 4 games are in cold climates. Is there something there with these teams having an advantage with this beyond the line that's offered, or am I just totally out to lunch?

GosuThune [01:34:49]:

I think that's I think a lot of that's factored in, certainly. Like, when I mean, I'm Sure. If I'm handicapping this, I I don't I don't sometimes I'll move it move the line a little bit for weather if I think one team really has an advantage in the way they play. Like, if it were bad weather in Philly, I think that would definitely would favor them over someone like the Rams or or or the Vikings who need to throw the ball more. But, you know, it's otherwise, it's the standard home field plus a little bit of a bump for it being playoffs.

Andrew Pace [01:35:14]:

Right. So I would say, I unfortunately, I would say like, I I do like the Rams, but I would say they have the biggest, the Rams and the Vikings, they have the biggest disadvantages going into these cold weather stadiums. And the Vikings, you know, obviously, the Bills are redoing their stadium. They're keeping it outdoors. Obviously, this technology is being talked about like crazy. But the Vikings are one of the newest stadiums in the NFL, and they were one of the coldest fields in the NFL. And they've gone away from that. I understand why they're doing that, but there's something so beautiful about outdoor football.

Andrew Pace [01:35:48]:

And I know that Super Bowls get played indoors or in warm climates with the exception of that 2014 Super Bowl in New York, which turned out to be one of the warmest, mildest winter days in, like, the history of New York, which, I mean, it was maybe that was meant to be. But, yeah, I I love the the outdoor element of these these teams that have earned the right to play them in their buildings, this time of year. So, yeah, I'm I'm here for it. I'm excited for it. And, yeah, I don't know if there's something there. And I think did does Minnesota have a disadvantage if they do go to Philly because of switching to an indoor team to switching to an indoor stadium?

GosuThune [01:36:26]:

Yep. Definite. I mean, Darnold plays worse outdoors. It's it's

Shane Mercer [01:36:30]:

Yeah.

GosuThune [01:36:30]:

Prove I mean, you can measure it.

Shane Mercer [01:36:32]:

You know? I I say yeah. I I I think that there's, you know, there there's a tremendous upside to playing outdoors on a regular basis, you know, to just being because then you go indoors, and and it's not like any nobody ever says, oh, hey. You're going from outside to inside. You know? Do you have a a disadvantage because of that? Never. Right? It's it's only goes the other way around. So, Yeah. I I'm with you there, Pais. I think that there is probably an advantage to to playing outside on a regular basis, especially in a cold environment.

Andrew Pace [01:36:59]:

Well, like, if you're the Bills and you're going into Houston, you're kinda like, ah, this is nice. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [01:37:03]:

Yeah. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:37:04]:

They'll light it up. Yeah. Whereas if you're Houston going to Buffalo, Buffalo is like, this is what we practice in every day. Yeah. And Houston's like, fuck. You know? So which is a possible outcome for the AFC championship game. Right? It's possible. It could be Houston playing in Buffalo.

Andrew Pace [01:37:21]:

Yep.

Shane Mercer [01:37:22]:

Could be.

Andrew Pace [01:37:23]:

And and by the way, I will take a teaser loss for that outcome. I would be thrilled to with if the Chiefs go down to the Texans, take my money, I'm

Shane Mercer [01:37:32]:

I'm I'm thrilled. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:37:34]:

That that Chiefs teaser is an emotional hedge.

Shane Mercer [01:37:37]:

Right. Okay. So you you don't wanna see the Chiefs move on. Got it.

Andrew Pace [01:37:40]:

Yeah. I think a lot of people are in the same boat.

Shane Mercer [01:37:42]:

I I think there's a lot of people out there. I mean, I don't I I like watching Patrick Mahomes play. I do too.

Andrew Pace [01:37:46]:

He's made me a lot of money. a lot of money

Shane Mercer [01:37:47]:

I like them. But, but yeah. Alright, guys. Anything else before we close it out here? I think that's about it. Okay. Go ahead.

GosuThune [01:37:55]:

I wanted I did wanna say you were right, and I don't you were right about the that Texans game. It was the the Ravens was the one they got shut out, and the the Christmas game was not the it's not that game. The Ravens game was the one I think or that Christmas game was maybe the one that were Tank Dell got hurt in that game, or maybe that was a week before. I can't remember. But you're right about that.

Shane Mercer [01:38:15]:

Oh, so there you go.

Andrew Pace [01:38:16]:

Even a blind squirrel finds a knot every once in a while.

Shane Mercer [01:38:21]:

Alright, guys. Thanks for clearing that up, John. Fact checking over here, making sure that, you know, the the record is set straight. Awesome work. Appreciate it. If anybody does wanna act on any information that was just provided, you wanna go place the wager now, something pregame? Place to do it to Pinnacle Sportsbook. Go check it out over there: pinnacle.com/inplaylive

Shane Mercer [01:38:39]:

If you haven't signed up, you sign up over there. But great place to place any of these wagers we mentioned. You're gonna get the very best juice over there. Alright. With that pace, John, sports bettors around the world till next week. Keep eating those books. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download, and subscribe.

Shane Mercer [01:38:57]:

We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below. And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code BEHINDTHELINES.