Episode 96

Welcome [00:00:00]:

You're listening to Behind the Lines, a podcast presented by inplayLIVE and powered by Pinnacle, the number one sports book where winners play and never get limited. Go to pinnacle.com/inplaylive to sign up and get in the game.

Robert Linnehan [00:00:16]:

Politicians and lawmakers will often introduce bills that they know stand absolutely no chance of being approved simply to say, hey. Look. This is what I'm doing. No one proved it. No one backed me up, but I'm doing this to protect my constituents from this threat of proxy betting.

Robert Linnehan [00:00:37]:

It could be that. It could be something like that. I don't know.

Shane Mercer [00:00:39]:

Which is crazy to think that that somebody's constituents would be at risk because of proxy battery. I I mean Hello. Welcome in. It's behind the lines powered by Pinnacle, purifying the sports betting industry. I'm Shane. He's Pace. We got a show for you today. I'm trying threads.

Shane Mercer [00:01:07]:

We got a regulatory update with the journal, and we'll touch on this bill in Iowa that would criminalize winners and the gridiron grind conference championships. Stay tuned for that at the end of the show. Gosu will be here. But first, Pace, how was your weekend? How was the sports betting weekend? How'd it go?

Andrew Pace [00:01:24]:

Oh, incredible. How about you?

Shane Mercer [00:01:25]:

Yeah. I had a great weekend too, man. Not so much on the NFL side. I mean, NFL was fine, but, I did great with basketball.

Andrew Pace [00:01:33]:

Nice. Yeah. Nice. Yeah. Yeah. I definitely was mostly focused on on football and hockey. I don't wanna say I didn't bet anything else. I've definitely started, you know, betting some of this college hoops.

Andrew Pace [00:01:44]:

But, yeah, just a it's been a month of just absolute magic on my end, and I'm really enjoying it.

Shane Mercer [00:01:51]:

Yeah. Yeah. I was checking out the tracker recently. They started day to day, and you really have been crushing it, dude. I was like, well, Pace is on 1. Like, he's rolling.

Andrew Pace [00:02:04]:

It's always it's I mean, when you're when you're betting for a, like, a living for lack of a better term, you know, you're always you're always capable. Right. You know, the next losing run's around the corner, but, you know, we obviously did a big feedback, sort of a feedback survey with the group. And there's some things I read in there that kinda motivated and inspired me, and I think that's helped. I've really just tried to stay in my lane and and pick my spots, and I think that's helped. And, things have worked out. Like, the Chiefs taking a safety to cover up plus 10a half, you know, that we thought we'd lost. So, you know, there's there's gonna there's always gonna be some things where you can go, yep. You know, I'm I'm doing all these things well, but you can do all those things right

Andrew Pace [00:02:51]:

And have it not go your way. And and there's just been a couple as of late, like a Mark Andrews drop 2.2 version that also went our way. So, you know, yeah, it's it's been great.

Shane Mercer [00:03:01]:

Yeah. Yeah. Those those moments, that that safety you know, the the intentional safety, I'm sure that that had the the gambling conspiracy theorist just up in arms out there, you know, depending on what side of the line you fell on. Yeah. What what a moment there.

Andrew Pace [00:03:17]:

You know what's interesting about the the conspiracy theorist? They can head over to our Instagram and watch Kenny calling out them doing it before it happens because teams do it for a reason. Yeah. And that's precisely what he did.

Shane Mercer [00:03:28]:

That was incredible too for for Kenny to be like, oh, wait. They could do this. You know? It it could happen. And then I you know, I'm seeing other people messaging going like, well, Andy Reid's the guy to do it. You know? He's the coach that would do something like this, and then sure enough, it it happened. It was pretty cool

Shane Mercer [00:03:42]:

to sort of watch it unfold, you know, in that way.

Andrew Pace [00:03:45]:

Absolutely. Absolutely electric is what it was.

Shane Mercer [00:03:48]:

It really was. It was super cool. In fact, that pace, I think you posted the video on, on Instagram. People should go check that out if you haven't seen it yet or you missed the moment. It was it was just it was an incredible moment. Very, very cool to sort of watch it unfold. Well, speaking of perhaps staying in your lane and we're on the social media talk here, I'm stepping way out of my lane. So I don't do a whole lot of social media generally or haven't in the past.

Shane Mercer [00:04:12]:

I do a little bit here and there, but but, you know, a sort of, you know, we're on this podcast, we're in this space. And I figure, you know what, New Year, let me jump into it. Let me really sort of start to engage with people in the betting space.

Shane Mercer [00:04:27]:

You know, in sort of a more regular, consistent basis. Obviously, we do the podcast here. We bring on great guests. You know, I have lots of awesome conversations, you know, with our guests and pace even between us. But I don't really engage with a whole lot of people outside of the Imply Live community when it comes to sports betting. And, you know, people sort of out there, you know, in in the in the betting world, whether that's a gambling Twitter or on Instagram. And and I thought to myself, you know what? Threads are sort of newer. I know the kinds of conversations that take place, especially on gambling Twitter.

Shane Mercer [00:05:00]:

You know, I've sort of followed that stuff, but not engaged all that much. And, I felt like maybe that, you know, I I could enter that space and really sort of, you know, try to engage with people, but I feel like I know what I'm getting there. And so I thought, you know what? I'm gonna I'm gonna go on to threads. I'm gonna start, you know, checking in on sports betting threads and sort of follow things along here and see what's happening out there. Maybe, you know, put out some some information that can maybe help people, you know, stuff that we're doing here on the podcast and that kind of thing. So, you know, I hopped into the sports betting section of threads and, dude, it was, like, flooded. Just absolutely flooded. More than 90% of the people in there are touts.

Shane Mercer [00:05:39]:

They're just trying to sell pics. They're offering free pics. Join my discord. Go. Here's some free pics. Give me tips. You know, like, tip me. Send me money because I'm giving you free pics.

Shane Mercer [00:05:50]:

And, PACE, it's not just pics, but they're all fucking long shot parlays. Like, you know, they do. It's like, hey, tail my 10 pick parlay and then give me a tip afterwards. It was going to hit 1. You just got to hit 1. That's what they said. They just got to hit 1. And of course, of course, all of them are posting, Hey, hit this one, hit that one.

Shane Mercer [00:06:08]:

You know, we won this money over here. If you're not tailing us, tell us now. Join my discord now. It was literally like just flooded with everybody saying, here's my parlay. Tell me, tell me, tell me. You know, it was like, what what's happening out here? And and then, of course, you've got a bunch of people that are, like, you know, saying things like, oh, I just started tailing this person, but they lost. Oh, that sucked. Or or, you know, oh, yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:06:34]:

I've been tailing and they were on a hot streak, but now it's now it's gone. You know, it's gone south. And then there's lots of people out there that just genuinely want to learn how to win. Right? They're asking they're asking some great questions. And then I just see them get bombarded by these these people trying to sell pics, you know, and it's just like, Oh, you want to win here? Tell me here. You know, it's just like, Wow, I was really sort of I guess I shouldn't be surprised. And Pace, you're probably sitting here going like, Shane, what did you think you were going to see? Because I know you engage online a whole lot more than than I do. And you've sort of been in the space longer and sort of dealing with this kind of thing longer.

Shane Mercer [00:07:12]:

But, you know, I was really sort of kind of kind of frustrated by it. So then I start making a few comments. K? Like, hey. You know that, like, the sportsbooks love it when you make these big long parlays. It's like their biggest profit maker. You know? Like, you know, stuff like that. Oh, man. Did some of these touts get upset? Oh, dude, they got angry with me.

Shane Mercer [00:07:35]:

They, you know, they guy had one person, you know, start start calling me out as a dad, like talking about my dog. Yeah. Like, they got really personal, dude. Like, they were just they were just mean. Like, it was just like, and, you know, I'm never going to attack somebody's personal character or go at somebody, you know, in a way that is going to try to make them feel bad. I'll comment on your on your pics or parley is on whether I think that's a great idea or not, but not going to go and attack you. But some of these people just came at me. And one of them, actually, I thought was funny.

Shane Mercer [00:08:05]:

He thought I referred to him as a tout. Right. That's what that's sort of a general term we use to describe people who are posting pics and trying to get people to sell pics and that kind of thing. He thought I was name calling. Like, he thought it was, like, derogatory. Like, I was, like, bashing him by by by using that word. It was just like

Andrew Pace [00:08:26]:

Shane, the definition of what you just said is is insulting.

Shane Mercer [00:08:29]:

Is it insulting? I don't know. It's it's thrown around all the time. I figured that's just it's just a term now. You you feel like it's it's insulting to call someone to tout?

Andrew Pace [00:08:37]:

By the definition you just gave?

Andrew Pace [00:08:41]:

Which is precisely what that person is.

Shane Mercer [00:08:43]:

Well, it's what they are. I I don't know. Don't they know.

Andrew Pace [00:08:47]:

It's like a person,, touting their picks and selling, like, selling their, you know, like, their betting service, like, inplayLIVE does.

Shane Mercer [00:08:53]:

Yeah. Well, there ain't I mean, I don't think it's, you know, they're selling terrible picks, but I didn't I didn't say that. It was more of just like, hey, you know, these are long, sharp parlays. You know, why are there so many totes out here trying to do this? You know, it was it's unbelievable how many how many there are. And there's such little conversation around positive expected value. Like like, when I say that there's such there's so little, I didn't see any. Like, it's hardly any. So, you know, I started posting a few things.

Shane Mercer [00:09:29]:

I post our show from last week, posting a few things about parlays, posting a few things about positive expected value. And sure enough, I did get a few people here and there kind of being like, yeah, you know, engaging a little bit and that kind of thing and got a few added to my followers, which was another thing that that some of these heads came at me for. They're like, Who is this guy? He has no followers. I'd like 40 followers space. I've got like nobody following me, which is whatever. You know, I'm I'm sort of new to the space, and I'm I'm rolling along here. That kind of thing doesn't bother me too much, but, you know, they I I understand how, you know, all you people think you need to have a following to to be credible. I get that.

Andrew Pace [00:10:05]:

I mean, a lot of those guys might be paying for some of their followers or use you know? Maybe. Using various bots or or whatever to to generate them. Right? So, you know, it's it's like this is this is the thing. This is the power of social media. Right? So in my in my previous career, if you told me that I was presenting to 40 people today, it would have been a big day for me. A really big day. Right. Really, really, really big day.

Shane Mercer [00:10:33]:

You're getting up in front of a room. You gotta talk to, like, you know, a meeting kinda thing, a boardroom or something?

Andrew Pace [00:10:38]:

Yeah. I think the biggest one I ever did was, like, a 110 people, and it was amazing. It was so much fun to do, but, yeah, I was nervous and, you know, this and that. And, you know, with social media, you can reach millions overnight or or in an hour for that matter. Right? And and 40 in a short period of time is strong. Shane, why the fuck did you go over to to threads?

Shane Mercer [00:10:59]:

Well, you know, it's new.

Andrew Pace [00:11:01]:

Done this on x or Twitter.

Shane Mercer [00:11:02]:

I could have done it. I could have done it on on x or Twitter. Absolutely. I feel like x and Twitter is older pace. I think I think that's part of it. I think that there's an older demographic there. I think that that there's a conversation there where maybe where maybe there's already a whole lot of preconceived notions around positive expected value, and I thought that maybe, like, maybe that is the place I should have gone if I wanted to just focus on that. But I think a big part of this 2 paces is sort of helping shift a culture away from from the negative sides of sports betting and, you know, chasing those long shot parlays.

Shane Mercer [00:11:45]:

And we talk a lot about that, you know, here on the show. And maybe maybe, you know, maybe that's such an uphill climb or, you know, it's like I'm fighting against the tidal wave of of crap out there by going to threads. And and, you know, Yeah. I mean, look. I didn't I didn't sort of, you know, plan it out that thoroughly perhaps, but I just said I want to engage, and maybe this is a place to do it. It seems like a lot of people are having more positive conversations on a place like threats than they are on Twitter. And so, yeah, you know, I think I that's at least what I hear out there.

Andrew Pace [00:12:17]:

Sounds sounds like you went through that yourself.

Shane Mercer [00:12:21]:

Exactly.

Andrew Pace [00:12:21]:

You're a bad dad.

Shane Mercer [00:12:22]:

I'm a terrible dad. Yeah. You know?

Andrew Pace [00:12:24]:

But but here here's the thing. Right? So, like, if if you go political and you're like, I'm gonna tell you why you should vote for Donald Trump to someone who is not going to vote for Donald Trump, you're you probably are wasting your time. It's probably gonna fall on deaf ears, and it might even make that person a little bit angry. We learned early on just from our ads, let alone actual social media posts or, like, you know, going and calming commenting and interacting with people. When we did ads about parlays, the single biggest defense of why we were wrong from the people that commented very similar to, I guess, what you dealt with was them showing a screenshot or them having hit a parlay before. That was their argument. Right? So if you're making 10, $25100 bets and all of a sudden you returned, you know, 4 figures or or more potentially on on the parlay that you made, you have absolutely no idea what your win loss is over the course of time. You just know that you hit that bet, that you were right.

Andrew Pace [00:13:26]:

It paid. It was exhilarating, and you cannot take that away from that person. There's no discussion or understanding of value whatsoever. And if you're engaging with people like that, can you, you know, kinda get someone out of the out of that mindset? Sure. But in general, you know, it's not gonna it's not gonna go in a way where you're just like, how does this person not understand? Or, like, why are they not getting this? It just it you know, you're you're probably talking to the wrong person. And and, unfortunately, yeah, a lot of young people in the industry are that's that is how they think. Right?

Shane Mercer [00:13:59]:

Yeah. And threads is, I think, a naturally younger platform, meaning that I think a lot of the people on threads are of a younger demographic. I'll say this, though, too. You're probably right. If I'm going out there and I'm trying to engage with the with, you know, a lot of these touts out there, I'm probably not going to change many minds. They they're they're set in their ways. They've got a plan. You know, they're going to sell their parlays and that that they're going to make money off doing that.

Shane Mercer [00:14:20]:

But there's a lot of people out there that are just trying to figure out how to win. They they just, you know, they don't know how to win. They see they're flooded by these parlays and they think that that that that's maybe the way, you know, but I guess I'm there to say parlays, parlay not the way. You know, and if I can just even reach a couple of people out there and sort of bring them into our positive EV tent, get them to think about what that means, then then maybe it's worth it.

Andrew Pace [00:14:53]:

Totally. And and so there's a guy on he's probably on all channels, but I've come across him on Instagram, and I'm sure he's on TikTok too for those that have access to it after after what's transpired in the past week. Yeah. But, you know, it'll be like a wrecking ball that that goes through a construction site, and the guy edited a video that that hits him or something like that. And he's like, how did I survive this? Or whatever it is. And it's something that was actually edited or created. And the guy that comes in and and debunks these viral videos is, like, physicist, genius, mathematician galore. And he'll take the original video.

Andrew Pace [00:15:33]:

He'll show the clip of it. And then talking faster than what appears to be listening to a podcast on 2x, but it's actually him talking at the speed. The wrecking ball will be like, oh, I hit this wrecking ball and I survived. He'll be like, no. You didn't. And then he goes into the mathematics and the physics of every single aspect of the video, And he'll go, using Google Maps, I calculated the distance from here to here at the location that you are at, which I found out was here from doing this and that. And he breaks the whole thing down, breaks all the math down, and debunks these viral videos that were in fact false or edited. So the reason why I bring him up is because he gets through to, let's call it, the uneducated viewer and actually gives validity to the claim countering the people that believed it.

Andrew Pace [00:16:25]:

That actually makes you go, oh, shit. Like, I was wrong. I'd I'd I thought this was real, and now this person's clearly proven that it isn't. So the reason why I bring this up is because if you're engaging with, say, a parlay like this, posting before the outcome and then posting after the outcome as, oh, you know, you shouldn't have done this. So you see this with a lot of, like, tipsters, obviously, or whomever. There's a lot of obviously, there's there's someone out there right now on gambling Twitter that's getting a lot of a lot of eyeballs with, being essentially the new Vegas Dave. If you debunk it before it's won or lost, that's a much better approach. And with a parlay specifically, you can calculate the expected loss of the wager, or you can give the data behind the expected loss or the of the wager regardless of the outcome.

Andrew Pace [00:17:17]:

You could also put the parlay together and use potentially another sports book where it pays better on that book. You could look at the closing line value relative to each of the picks that are on the parlay, and then you could explain and actually be able to debunk whether or not this person did the right thing. Will that still fall on deaf ears? Well, I can give you the answer to that. Yes. It it will. But you're gonna turn a few more heads where you go, hey. This guy actually knows what he's talking about. Let's see what he's talking.

Andrew Pace [00:17:49]:

Let let's actually see what he's selling for lack of a better term.

Shane Mercer [00:17:53]:

Right. Right. Well, you know, I I that that's a great, analogy there with the guy because, you're always gonna get those people that just won't, you know, won't believe the truth. But I figure if there's at least a few people out there that are looking for it and they're they're open minded that maybe, you know, we can we can sort of bring them in, to our community and get them thinking about, you know, things like positive e b. And not just that, but, you know, wagering, responsible wagering, tracking, bankroll management, you know, pays all the things that that we sort of And how to win and how to win. Right? And all of this is part of the strategy. Here it is. Where's the strategy? Here it is.

Shane Mercer [00:18:28]:

Here they are. That's what we're doing. Yeah. Get these things figured out. Right? These are the fundamentals of winning. Right? These are the sort of the base foundational elements that you gotta figure out before you're ever gonna win long term. Right. And and sort of just getting people to think about some of those basics, you know, I think is is is worth it.

Shane Mercer [00:18:45]:

So I'm going to keep at it. If any of you out there are listening and you're on threads, please find me. Give me a follow by it's it's just my name, which is probably a whole other thing. I shouldn't just put my normal name out there, but it's just my name. Shane dot Mercer. So you can find me quite easily on threads. Give me a follow. Join the conversation.

Shane Mercer [00:19:02]:

Engage with me out there. Maybe we'll bring in a few other people, into into sort of the positive e v tent.

Andrew Pace [00:19:08]:

And if you know Shane, you can defend whether or not he's a good dad to his haters.

Shane Mercer [00:19:15]:

Please, please.

Andrew Pace [00:19:16]:

40 supporters and his 12 haters.

Shane Mercer [00:19:18]:

My 12 haters. Yeah. Yeah. I could use use any help I can get out there. Apparently, it's, it's tough out there, man. Yeah. There you go. There you go.

Andrew Pace [00:19:27]:

There you go.

Shane Mercer [00:19:28]:

Alright. Well, anyway, I'll I'll I'll keep you guys updated on on how things go on threads. And, of course, I'll be sharing our our our episodes on there. And, I'll I'll even I even posted a couple past ones, pace, because, I'm finding that there's it's it's it's amazing how much we've done. We're we're approaching our 100th episode. I I think we're, like, 4 or 5 away, and I'm going back and I'm looking. I'm like, wow. Some of these are just such solid resources and learning tools.

Shane Mercer [00:19:52]:

You know, I posted, the one about chaos, on there because, we saw some chaos after, after the Saturday games there where the Lions lost. And, you know, we had the, the the, intentional safety and, you know, all that sort of stuff. It was a perfect episode to sort of put out there as people were were losing their minds over what they had seen. And, you know, sports is chaos. And so that was a message I was trying to share. And, you know

Andrew Pace [00:20:14]:

You know what's funny, Shane? Well, I can't remember. You called yourself a betting enthusiast or something back then.

Shane Mercer [00:20:19]:

Oh, yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:20:20]:

You you you were when we shot that, we're talking about beforehand, and you were just kinda like your mouth was open a little bit. Like, what the hell is Pace talking about right now?

Andrew Pace [00:20:29]:

So you've come a long way in the in the 90 plus episodes.

Shane Mercer [00:20:32]:

Big time. Big time. Absolutely. Yeah. This podcast has been instrumental in my betting journey, 100 100%. And, Yeah. It's just been a lot of fun. So, anyway, I've been posting some of the past episodes, so I'll I'll continue to do that.

Shane Mercer [00:20:42]:

And, yeah, anyone out there, find me on threads, hit me up, engage with me. Let's get the conversation rolling around positive and bring some more people into the tent of of actually winning at sports betting and learning some of these fundamentals. I I think, you know, that that's a we'll have a fun time doing it, and, yeah, we're gonna get some haters out there. But, fuck them. Who cares?

John Wilson [00:21:03]:

There we go. Exactly.

Shane Mercer [00:21:05]:

Alright. With that, I think it's time. Let's bring in our guest. Robert Linehan is a regulatory regulatory writer and editor for Sportradar. You can find his articles at sportsbetting dime.com. Robert, thanks for so much for joining us.

Robert Linnehan [00:21:25]:

What's up, guys? Thanks for having me today.

Shane Mercer [00:21:28]:

Really excited to get into your work as we cover the regulatory landscape quite a bit here on this podcast. So so very excited to get into that with you. But first, I gotta ask you, how did you find your way into this space? Do you bet on sports? Are you a successful sports bettor? What do you like to bet on?

Robert Linnehan [00:21:46]:

Well, alright. I'll I'll take that 3 at a time here or one at a time here. How I got into it? I've been a journalist for, like, almost 20 years now, which seems long to think about when I say it out loud. But, you know, a very low you know, local journalism background, editor, writer for a number of small newspapers, sort of got my start with the daily newspapers, did some medical journalism back in the day. But how I got involved with sports betting, regulatory work, I I I did a lot of freelance sports writing for a very popular, very large, Philadelphia sports blog, called Crossing Broad. They were eventually acquired. They, the the owner of the blog, the creator of the blog, Kyle Scott, he really early got into the sports betting affiliate game. He was one of the first people to think to figure out, like, hey.

Robert Linnehan [00:22:50]:

Look. I can start putting these links up on my site, get people to sign up for FanDuel DraftKings, make a lot of money this way. And he gained quite a bit of attention from this English affiliate company, XL Media, who basically acquired him and a couple other sites in the northeast. Kyle knew, sort of my background, just from working with him, knew that, you know, I have jumped from covering a lot of different topics and figured, hey. Look. We need somebody to cover this, you know, the regulatory landscape from a, you know, journalism standpoint, and we think you'd be great for it. So that was a little that was right in 2020, early 2020. Been doing it ever since.

Robert Linnehan [00:23:42]:

Obviously, now with SportRadar. SportRadar acquired, my division, in Excel Media, couple months ago. And, yeah, been doing it ever since. Never, never really envisioned reporting on this for a living. Didn't even know it was really a job, prior to him coming up and asking me to do it, but, yeah, it's been great. In terms of your other questions, I don't do a lot of sports betting myself. If I do, it's, like, $20 here or there. I I don't have the time or the patience to, you know, put any type of research into it.

Robert Linnehan [00:24:20]:

It's all by my gut, which is, like, the number one thing they say not to do to be a sport veteran. But, you know, if I do, I I have one clear rule, and I I just can't the only thing I live by is I don't bet for or against any of the teams I root for. I I can't I can't divorce the bet from the outcome. So, like, you know, as you can see from back there, I'm an Eagles fan. So yesterday, if I had bet on the Eagles to cover, you know, I think it was I think it's finally settled on 6a half at the end. They won by 6. Now I with the the the win, them getting the NFC championship would have been marred by me losing a $25 bet on them. I can't divorce that.

Robert Linnehan [00:25:08]:

I just can't divorce it. So that's, like, my only hard and fast sports betting rule. I just stick I stay away from teams that I, like, root for just because I'm not that disciplined of a bettor that, like, you know, people say, like, oh, well, hey. Look. It it you know, the the the joy of them winning makes up for the loss of the bet, and I that that just doesn't work for me. I I I can't stand it.

Andrew Pace [00:25:33]:

You know what's interesting about that whole discussion that you just brought up is we always wanna make bets, that are in line with a team's motivation. So did Jake Elliott want to miss that PAT? Of course not.

Andrew Pace [00:25:45]:

He tried to he tried. Right? He tried to make it, But that's set up for the missed cover,

Robert Linnehan [00:25:50]:

2 of them. 2 missed extra points. Right.

Andrew Pace [00:25:53]:

Right. And then, obviously, when that stuff happens, the whole world reacts to why they lost as things being rigged or, you know, whatever the case. But interestingly enough is if they're down 14, the Rams would have gone for 2. So had they have, converted the 2 point conversion, it still would have likely been a 6 point game, if Jay Kelly did make that PAT because there's a whole bunch of of analysis that's causing coaches to go for 2 point conversions down 14 that kinda started, I would say, about 3 seasons ago, but really took took sort of wave last season, in the NFL. And the Eagles, they wanna win the game. They wanna win the game by as much as they possibly can, but late in the game, they're just trying to protect the w. They're not trying to sit there and make sure that, you know, Rob and his crew covers 6a half. Right? So, you know, there's some really good opportunities on the other side of those bets sometimes where we'll actually try to strike live and and go, okay.

Andrew Pace [00:26:48]:

You know, what's the motivation of the losing team? What what will they do, you know, late in this game? Would they kick a field goal? Would they go for 2? All that kind of stuff. And that's where you can sometimes actually make some profits. But I love that you brought that up because it's it is a really good piece of, sort of good lesson for any sports bettors. Like, your fanship is actually a detriment to you from a betting standpoint. You're better off to just enjoy the game as a fan, and and and leave it that way if if that's, you know, how the betting's gonna affect you.

Robert Linnehan [00:27:17]:

It drives you crazy. And, I mean, it's it's look. If you can do it, it's great because, you know, like I mentioned about the the research, I mean, you don't you don't know you know your team. You know the team that you've watched every single week for the last 18 weeks better than any other team in the league. So, you know, you've pretty much done your research just by watching every game, watching every snap, watching every minute. So if you can sort of divorce it, I mean, it's not a bad thing. But just for me, personally, I I I can't do it. And, like, I don't wanna bet on the Rams to cover.

Robert Linnehan [00:27:49]:

Like, get out of here. Like, I don't I don't want that. And, like, you know, god forbid, like, the Rams win. It's like, alright. They won. I don't get to watch the Eagles anymore, but I I want $25 on a bet. Like, that's supposed to make up for it. Like, I just I can't do it.

Robert Linnehan [00:28:03]:

I can't do it. I'm not a big sports bettor to begin with. So if I do, it's very few and far between. And I'll probably stop for many months. Well, I guess maybe I'll I'll dabble in March Madness when that comes up. But after that, you know, I'm not looking at baseball. I'm not looking at any of that stuff. I'll jump back in maybe a little bit next football season, but it's very limited time for me to do anything and support that.

Andrew Pace [00:28:28]:

Right. Right.

Shane Mercer [00:28:29]:

I love that. I've actually got a friend. So so, Robert, just use that example of of you betting on this on the Rams to to have covered there. I've got a friend who, loves to do what he calls, what we've called,

Andrew Pace [00:28:41]:

Emotional bet.

Shane Mercer [00:28:41]:

A happiness middle. Right? Where Oh. Happiness middle. So, for example, he's a Bills fan, and, he happiness he hit his happiness middle yesterday because he actually took the Ravens plus 2a half. And so and the Bills won by 2. So he won his bet and his team won. Won his happiness middle.

Robert Linnehan [00:29:01]:

That's the perfect. And that could not have been more perfect. You didn't, you know, Andrews dropped that easy 2 point conversion. Yeah. He didn't have a chance to go to overtime and, you know, have them either win or or or the Bills to win by 3. So I it ended up working out per that that's that is the perfect middle right there. He wanted that. Bills are going to the AFC championship.

Shane Mercer [00:29:21]:

There you go. Right? So so happiness middle is something to consider. Yeah. Alright. We didn't come on here to to talk about fanship and and, you know, bring you on to talk about, happiness middles and that kind of thing. We came on to talk about your serious work in this space, which is very serious. We cover it a lot, the regulatory landscape and what's happening, what's taking place in different jurisdictions and that kind of thing. But you follow this much more closely than we do even.

Shane Mercer [00:29:46]:

I was looking at some of your articles thinking, wow. I hadn't heard about this, so I didn't know this was happening. You're doing some fantastic work out there, Robert. So first of all, kudos to you because this isn't an easy space to cover. Is it?

Robert Linnehan [00:29:57]:

No. Thank you, Shane. I appreciate that. It's a it's a very eclectic, a a lot of lot of things going on, not just, you know, legislatively, but or or state by state. But, I mean, now you're seeing, you know, a a lot of the federal government getting involved with this. You've got things going on in Canada that affect what's happening here in the US. Things that have happened in England that are just starting to affect what's happening here in the US. There's a lot to write about.

Robert Linnehan [00:30:28]:

I mean, it's more than just, you know, hey, look, what state? Because the vast majority of states have already legalized sports betting. I mean, 38 states or 39, plus DC, I believe, have legalized some form of sports betting. So the majority of states have sort of dipped their toes in it already. But, yeah, there's always something to report on. There are always new bills. I mean, just I've written last week, I wrote several articles about new bills that are cropping up, about whether or not to, increase sports betting taxes. You know, you've got a couple, new bills that just popped up I saw today, where, you know, they're they're they're sort of taking into account what a lot of federal lawmakers want, regarding advertise sports betting advertisements and promos and and and in game betting. Yeah.

Robert Linnehan [00:31:19]:

There's always something to sort of jump into and and and dig your teeth into and really sort of, report on. So it's a very interesting space. And, you know, like I mentioned before, it's a hell of a lot better than medical journalism or or local politics. You know? It's much more interesting than that. So happy to be a part of it and, happy to devote my time and energy to it.

Shane Mercer [00:31:41]:

Well well, happy to have someone like you covering it and and keeping us informed. You know, our audience is made up of of a whole lot of sharp sports bettors out there and those who are hoping to become sharp sports bettors. And a big part of staying sharp in this space is knowing what the rules are, what's changing, where it's changing, how it's changing, how it could impact you in your jurisdiction. What would you say are some of the sort of the the top trends or or issues that maybe we should be paying attention to, in this year ahead?

Robert Linnehan [00:32:13]:

Well, you know, other than the obvious of, you know, there are several there are still several very large markets that don't have legalized regulated gaming. I mean, Florida is not fully open. You have one operator in Florida. It's all controlled by Hard Rock Bet. You know, the big you know, there's always some rumblings about FanDuel and DraftKings and other operators potentially going to Florida. Obviously, Texas has no regulated sports betting. California has no regulated sports betting. I mean, those are 3 massive markets that could potentially top New York.

Robert Linnehan [00:32:46]:

I mean, New York is head and shoulders above every other state right now just in terms of handle, sports betting, tax revenues. I mean, they're at a 51 percent 51% tax rate. So, I mean, that's to be expected. But those are 3 states right there that if legalized, they could jump ahead of the largest sports betting market in the world in New York, you know, within the year if they legalize. But other than that sort of obvious narrative, you definitely you know, the next things that people should be looking out for, I think and you're starting to see it already a little bit is our states reexamining their sports betting tax rates. And not for the better for operators. You you you have in Maryland right now, the governor has already proposed doubling the tax rate from 15% to 30%, which would really, you know, sort of jut Maryland up at sort of the top of the list, or near the top of the list for states regarding sports betting taxes. Ohio has already doubled their rate.

Robert Linnehan [00:33:49]:

They doubled their rate 7 months into sports betting. They went from 10% to 20% almost instantaneously because they saw how much money was being left on the table. You saw in Illinois this past year, they have the 1st in the state, a a tiered tax system where they will tax you at different rate. They'll tax operators at different rates for how much revenue they bring in every single month. This was obviously very different from their original. I think they started off at 15%, and now the largest operators are being taxed. I think it's the 40% is the the threshold right now. So what does this mean? Why why does this have anything to do with, you know, Sharpettors, things like that? The more you see that, the higher taxes, the less promos you're gonna get, the less free money you're gonna get, the less bonuses you're gonna get.

Robert Linnehan [00:34:38]:

It it really causes operators to really reexamine what they can give betters. You know, they may have to sort of, you know, jigger the juice on on on certain bets. I mean, that's always a threat. They say, oh, the with the the you know, we're gonna have to take more or the the the lines are gonna suffer because of the tax rates. Really haven't seen that yet. It's it's always a threat, that they make when states are sort of reexamining their taxes. But certainly something that's, you know, that, yeah, you can see is that, hey. Look.

Robert Linnehan [00:35:11]:

Like, some of these promos, these these really nice promos in some of these states, they're gone when when you have to pay with these operators of paying 30 or 40% when they were were originally paying 15%. So that's something that's pretty big that you can look forward or that people can look to. And then, you know, I mentioned it a little earlier before, but you're also gonna see some federal stuff, which would really, really impact the market and what people can bet on. There's something called the Safe Bet Act right now that has been introduced, which would, you know, very much limit sports betting advertisements. It would limit in game betting, and it would really sort of put a clamp on what operators can do in certain states. And just recently, you see someone, a a lawmaker in Massachusetts, has introduced a bill that pretty much mirrors what they wanna do in the Safe Bet Act and increase taxes to 51%. It would completely eliminate in game sports betting in Massachusetts. You know? Look.

Robert Linnehan [00:36:21]:

And I we're laughing about this. Like, it doesn't really like, from where I'm sitting, like, the chances of something like that passing is less than, like, 5%. Like, there's just no way. But just the fact that they're starting to talk about this

Shane Mercer [00:36:36]:

Mhmm.

Robert Linnehan [00:36:37]:

And that there are discussions that are sort of coming from, you know, these these federal, bills, I mean, that that could be something. Hey. Look. Like, alright. Well, maybe we won't do 51% tax rate, but, hey. Maybe we could, you know, talk about some ways to limit in game betting or, you know, you you

Andrew Pace [00:36:55]:

Why? Well Why? What's the rationale?

Robert Linnehan [00:36:57]:

Is that, in game betting is extraordinarily bad for somebody that has a that has a problem with with gambling.

Robert Linnehan [00:37:10]:

You know, it's just saying, look. You can make all of these micro bets, you know, instead of just betting on, hey. Here's an outcome of the game. I'm gonna bet on this. You can bet on, you know, in some cases, what the next pitch is gonna be in baseball, or if this team will get a first down. You know, will the next run be over or under 4 yards? It's just giving people that may have a problem with gambling, thousands of more options to bet and lose money and and take advantage of, you know, some of them may have an addictive nature. You know, do I I I I go back and forth. I mean, I think problem gambling is a it is a big issue.

Robert Linnehan [00:37:49]:

I think there were ways that I I think there are things that can help people with problem gambling. I I don't know if, like, an elimination of in game betting is is going to be a solution for this. I think if people want to do that, they're gonna find a way to do that. You know, hey. Look. People can bet with Bovada or or any of a number of other offshore unregulated books and get their fix that way. I I don't think you need to go that far sort of, on that side. I think there's maybe something in the middle, where there could be more problem gambling services or, you know, you could use AI to maybe better identify people that may have some, you know, interesting betting habits and sort of limit them.

Robert Linnehan [00:38:34]:

Yeah. I don't know. I I think it's a very severe overreaction to what they're trying to do, but just the fact that this has been introduced and this is sort of in the ether right now leads me to think that there could be a lot more states that are will have start having these types of discussions.

Andrew Pace [00:38:52]:

It's it's all it's just seems like it's like, did you not know what you guys were getting into? You know? So you go legalize sports betting, and then you take away elements of it because you think there's too much of it. And then you increase the tax on the operator. That is the operator isn't even profitable today, and then you increase the tax on them. Like, you know, what what do you want out of this? You you want a bunch more money, but not at the risk of the public's, you know, betting. And then, of course, what what happens? You already alluded to it. You push everyone back into the gray market.

Robert Linnehan [00:39:21]:

Absolutely. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:39:22]:

Doesn't make any sense.

Robert Linnehan [00:39:23]:

I mean, I I I can see states wanting to take a look at the tax rate. So the tax rates were pretty low. I mean, when when these bills were introduced and and passed a couple years ago after, you know, PASPA was repealed and and state started rolling out these bills in 2018, I mean, they were, like, 10%. Like, 10% sports betting tax rate is nothing. Like, that's absolutely nothing for what you're you're you're getting out of this. I I could see why you'd want to maybe take a look at that. Maybe say, hey. Look.

Robert Linnehan [00:39:51]:

You're making a lot more money than we thought. This was really low. We let you have your fun for these last couple years. We're in we're we're gonna edge it up, you know, maybe to from 10 to 20 or or from 20 to 40. I I think the in game stuff is a little it's severe. It's very severe. I I think there needs to be some type of personal responsibility as well. You know, you you're you're punishing a majority of sports bettors that don't have problems, and and you're basically saying, okay.

Robert Linnehan [00:40:26]:

Since a small amount of people, the the vast minority of people that do bet on sports, you know, they have a problem with this, so nobody can have it. I just something about that sits kind of wrong to me. I I I look at, like, the alcohol industry or the tobacco industry where, you know, there are hey. Look. Like, yeah, there are people that have problems, and there are services out there to help these people sort of overcome their problems. But you're also not saying, okay, since there are people out there that are alcoholics, we're gonna ban alcohol altogether. I I I just I I kind of view it in the same way as sports betting. I mean, just my opinion.

Robert Linnehan [00:41:07]:

Certainly, I don't know if it's the right one, but that's just how I see it from an outside looking in perspective.

Shane Mercer [00:41:13]:

Yeah. That's a that's a good, comparison there comparing it to to alcohol or or, tobacco. And, I mean, even look at the opioid epidemic, that went unchecked for how long. Right? Mhmm. You know? So when yeah. Yeah. Exactly. In many ways, still still is.

Shane Mercer [00:41:29]:

But, you brought up you know, we're talking about Massachusetts. So why don't we, you know, stay there for now? Because something we've been covering so closely here on our, podcast that really sort of impacts our audience in a big way is the practice of, limiting bettors at the individual level. And, we know that the Massachusetts Gaming Commission is, you know, exploring this very closely. Where do you sort of see that conversation going in the year ahead?

Robert Linnehan [00:41:53]:

I could definitely see regulations new regulations coming out in terms of not necessarily saying, hey. Look. You can't offer you know, I I don't know if people know, but, you know, there's this whole VIP limiting type stuff that's going on right now. You know, I did a whole one of the things I I really point to from over the last year. I wrote a very long story about VIP programs and sort of the behind the scenes look at how they entice people to keep betting and, you know, people share text messages with me about, you know, from VIP host. I'm sure you guys you guys seem like, like, you're in it. I'm sure you had some experiences with VIP program.

Shane Mercer [00:42:31]:

Had a few VIP hosts.

Robert Linnehan [00:42:33]:

There you go. Yeah. You know, in terms so the the the limits and the VIP stuff really goes hand in hand, which Massachusetts the kudos to the Massachusetts Gaming Commission because they're sort of the first to really pick up on this where you have these VIP hosts that are basically saying, hey. Look. If you want, you won too much last week. We can't give you any bonuses. We can't give you any free bets this week. But if you lose hand over fist, and this is coming anecdotally from people that I've talked to, when you're on that real big downswing, that's when the VIP swoop in and say, hey.

Robert Linnehan [00:43:12]:

You want free tickets? Why don't you deposit another $500 into your account? Do you wanna keep betting? Here's some more money to keep betting as long as you deposit some more money. So it goes hand in hand with limitations because on the same in the same point, if you start winning too much you know, and and the operators, you guys know the operators will deny this up and down. But if you start winning too much, that's when they start putting caps on your bets. So it it's really sort of this predatory cycle where, you know, if you're a VIP, if you're in a VIP program and you're losing money, they want you to keep depositing. And they really sweeten the pots to, you know, hey. Here's some more free bets. Here's some more, swag, some merchandise. Here's some more betting deposit bonuses.

Robert Linnehan [00:44:00]:

We'll match your deposit if you deposit next week. But then on the flip side, you start winning, they're gonna limit the amount of money you can bet. They're going to take away your VIP status and just say, hey. Look. Analytically, you don't work for us anymore as a VIP customer. So the Massachusetts Gaming Commission, they saw this going on. They said, well, wait a minute. What are we what are we doing here? Are are you guys limiting people because you think they have problem gaming habits that you think they're a danger to theirselves? Or are you limiting people because they're beating you, because they're taking you for money? So they're the 1st gaming commission that have ever brought any of these companies to the table and said, like, hey.

Robert Linnehan [00:44:41]:

Look. Explain yourself. Like, we're giving you this this public forum. We need to know what goes into your limiting process, what goes into your VIP process, why is somebody limited, why is somebody a VIP. The operators, I don't I mean, the the the the first meeting they had, the operators all no showed. Every single operator said we're not coming. We're not coming.

Shane Mercer [00:45:04]:

Yeah. We remember that.

Robert Linnehan [00:45:06]:

Other than Bally Bet, I'll give Bally Bet all the credit in the world.

Shane Mercer [00:45:09]:

And they weren't even in the state. They weren't even operating in the state. They were licensed.

Robert Linnehan [00:45:12]:

Yeah. They were licensed, but they had not yet launched in the state. Kudos to them, they went. They got so much bad press. I and this is my theory. They they got so much bad press. They got killed by people just saying, woah. Every no one's gonna talk about this? They finally said, okay.

Robert Linnehan [00:45:28]:

We're all gonna go. They basically gave sort of the question the answers that you thought they would that, oh, we do this. Nobody gets limited. Or, you know, if you are limited, it's because, you know, you just, you you exhibited problem behavior problem gain.

Shane Mercer [00:45:44]:

You're a cheater. You're a cheater. That's what they said. Well They basically said winners are cheating.

Robert Linnehan [00:45:49]:

They did. That was part of it, but, you know, and then but then no one said anything about, you know, well, you know, anecdotally, I mean, you guys have heard stories, I'm sure, of people saying, I started winning. I was up, you know, 10 k over 1 month. I couldn't bet more than $5. Like, I wasn't doing anything wrong. I wasn't doing anything different. And the gaming commission is saying, look. We need to have some safeguards in place for the consumer because, you know, you you can't just be limiting people because they're beating you at your own game because they're winning money on the books.

Robert Linnehan [00:46:19]:

You can't be doing it. Like, this is not something that that that needs to be going on right now. So they were the first to do it. They're still sort of waiting on they they requested data from the operators to see exactly what goes into or to to how you're limited, to how many people are limited. Still waiting on that. But, yeah, that that's definitely going to be something that states are gonna talk about to examine, you know, definitely in 2025. I could see Ohio taking a long good look at this. Their gaming commission is very on the board.

Robert Linnehan [00:46:50]:

New Jersey has been very consumer friendly, in the past. They're one of the few states in the country that says if a sports book messes up on a line that they have to honor any and all bets that are taken or won. Most of the other states allow the operators to sort of void these bets if there are these obvious errors. I could see them taking a look at it. It's gonna be a big you know, depending on what is actually ends up coming out of this Massachusetts thing, that's gonna be a big story. That's gonna be a big, big thing for states to look at as we move forward into 2025.

Shane Mercer [00:47:27]:

Love it. Looking forward to to seeing that that that sort of music to our ears to to know that, you know, other states may sort of follow suit investigating that because, it is a big sort of topic for us. There's another some something else came across, my desk. Somebody in our in our, community posted this to our Discord just, this past week. Something that I thought was very concerning because, you know, again, our our audience very much winning sports bettors, winning consistently, and, saw this, bill in Iowa that would make it a felony to you to to engage in proxy betting. Have you seen this? And and what do you, you know, what do you think about this bill? Do you think it's something that could get passed?

Robert Linnehan [00:48:14]:

I have seen it. I don't have a whole lot to say about it. I I think it I think it does stand a fairly decent chance, at legalization. Yeah. I I don't so what what what are what what are people saying in your you mentioned in your Discord. What are what are their big concerns about this?

Shane Mercer [00:48:34]:

Well, I mean, look, you know, out there, because of limiting. Right? Sure. Oftentimes now people have to go down this path of finding, you know, people to work with as proxies. Sure. And, you know, it's a sort of common kind of practice. And once once you sort of get limited at too many books and depending on where you live, determines how many books you have access to and that kind of thing. And then so when we start to see that, hey. Look.

Shane Mercer [00:48:59]:

A state is considering a piece of legislation that would criminalize these people. It's one thing for the sportsbooks to say, you can't do this. If you're caught doing this, we won't pay you out. Fine. Right? Like, that's one thing. It's a whole other thing to say for a state, your government to come to you and say, if you do this, you're going to jail for 5 years.

Robert Linnehan [00:49:17]:

Sure. Yeah. Look. I I could see something like that being legalized, but I I think they're I think the burden of prosecution would be a lot in terms of proving that you're taking proxy bets, that you're engaged in this. I don't know what I don't know how how many resources Iowa would dedicate to trying to bust proxy bettors. I mean, how you get a just off the top of how you how you get a, undoubtedly, prove that somebody is taking bets from a number of other people and placing them for your for their own sake? I I I don't know. I mean, this this could be just one of those, like, hey. Look.

Robert Linnehan [00:50:01]:

This is sounds really good on paper. We're gonna sort of we're gonna pass this to just say, hey. Look what we're doing in terms of, you know, cracking down on this illegal type of gambling. But I I just I can't see them devoting all a lot of resources into and if they did, I mean, what doesn't Iowa have something better to do than than prosecute, you know, people that are taking proxy bets or or or engaging in proxy bets and and, you know, having them be felons. I I don't know. That's just I don't have a ton of insight into that. I I did see it. I didn't look too much into the bill on how it would even be enforced.

Robert Linnehan [00:50:37]:

But what what the what's Iowa gonna do, really? I I don't know.

Shane Mercer [00:50:44]:

Yeah.

Robert Linnehan [00:50:44]:

I mean, what are they are they gonna, like, wiretap your phone to find out if you proxy betting? Read your text?

Shane Mercer [00:50:49]:

I mean operators, it would just be a sort of a weapon for the operators to use against the people they suspect of of proxy betting. Right? And that that threat is you know, it's a significant threat. It's one thing to say, hey. We're gonna close your account, and you're not gonna get paid out your money. It's a whole other thing to say you're gonna go to jail.

Robert Linnehan [00:51:09]:

Sure. Yeah. I feel like that's a bit of overkill, to to have someone be a felon for proxy betting. So I don't know what's gonna come of that. I mean, there there it might be, you know, it it might be reconsidered or negotiated down or, you know, hey. Look. Maybe in the in the future, you'll you'll just be banned from sports. I don't know.

Robert Linnehan [00:51:32]:

It's just it's a weird thing. I I think it's sort of a, you know, overkill in in terms of what they're looking to do. And, again, I just ask, again, why why is this why Ohio or Iowa? Why is Iowa, like, the first to, like, be, like, oh my goodness. Like, are are there that many proxy bettors in Iowa? I don't know.

Shane Mercer [00:51:51]:

Yeah. I I don't know why why Iowa, you know, specifically.

Robert Linnehan [00:51:56]:

I would say I will also say the one thing I've learned about covering this job is that politicians and lawmakers will often introduce bills that they know stand absolutely no chance of being approved simply to say, hey. Look. This is what I'm doing. No one proved it. No one backed me up, but I'm doing this to protect my constituents from this threat of proxy betting. So Well, that It could be that. It could be something like that. I don't know.

Shane Mercer [00:52:23]:

Which is crazy to think that that somebody's constituents would be at risk because of proxy betting. I I mean, that's just kind of nuts and all of itself. But this brings me to something else that a lot of our other guests have had on, or or, you know, many of the guests we've had on where we're where we're talking about regulation and and lawmaking and the role of the sportsbooks and all of it. Or do you how often do you find that it's actually the sportsbooks or the, you know, the representatives of the sportsbooks, the lobbyists, what have you, that are driving the legislative agenda, in in various jurisdictions that, you know, they they they're the you know, we've had people come on and say they're the ones writing the laws. What what do you think of that?

Robert Linnehan [00:53:08]:

I mean, yes and no. In in terms of of of course, there are lobbyists that are going to be in different states. I mean, you're seeing a big push right now in Texas, for instance. Texas is going to Texas is very unique in the fact that they only have a legislative session once every 2 years. It's not every year. So 2025, they didn't have anything in 2024. They are gonna have something in 2025. So, you know, right when sort of I think it was December or November, late November, you started seeing a lot of stories coming about of people saying, oh, this is the year that Texas is going to legalize sports betting.

Robert Linnehan [00:53:48]:

This is the year. And, you know, I I was seeing this. I'm thinking to myself, who is who is pushing this narrative? Because just from where I'm looking, like, you know, there's still a huge roadblock in the senate. Lieutenant, patch or lieutenant governor Patrick is still the the leader of the senate. He has no desire to legalize sports betting. It it's a it's a Republican majority. And if there's not a majority of Republicans in the senate, he won't even bring up a sports betting bill to be voted on. Like, you know, there could be a bill could potentially be passed in the senate.

Robert Linnehan [00:54:27]:

But if there aren't going to be a majority of Republicans to vote for it, he will block the bill by not even bringing it up for a vote. So he's still there. There's still a huge hurdle in Texas, but you started seeing all these stories. Like, oh, this is the year. This is the year. There's so much positivity. Oh, you know, the politicians, lawmakers, there's a lot of there's a lot of momentum behind a a a bill this year. And you realize that it's just lobbyists sort of pushing this agenda, trying to gain any momentum, trying to, you know, go into the media and saying, I'm hearing that there's a lot of momentum that everyone is on board with a sports betting bill.

Robert Linnehan [00:55:04]:

And then I talk to people, you know, that are in Texas, that are, you know, close to the situation. They all share the same thoughts that I did that there's no way. There's absolutely no way. So I I think the story lines can absolutely be driven by lobbyists. I I don't know how much they're they're actually like, hey. Look. This is what we need to do. This is what we need to approve.

Robert Linnehan [00:55:27]:

You know, here here's you know, so I think you mentioned that people said that they're out there. They're writing the bills. I don't know if that was literally or figuratively, but they're definitely, you know, they definitely have the ears of some politicians, and they definitely have the ears of of some people in the in the in the media. But I don't you know, they obviously want sports betting to be legalized. They they're obviously pushing for it. You know, you see a lot of that in Minnesota right now where, you know, for the umpteenth year in a row, they're gonna discuss sports betting. But I I I think they more drive the storylines and what you hear out of the media than anything, you know, especially I'm sure they're working behind the scenes to sort of broker deals and things like that. But, yeah, in terms of actually, like, driving bills and stuff like that, I I don't see too much of it.

Robert Linnehan [00:56:15]:

But definitely sort of what the media reports on and what you hear, I I think they have a big hand in that.

Shane Mercer [00:56:20]:

Controlling the narrative, doing the doing the best they can. Robert, I feel like I could I could pick your brain forever here. Would you be interested in coming back on at some point, perhaps, later in the year? We can sort of talk about what's happening. What do you think?

Robert Linnehan [00:56:31]:

Yeah. Sure. Yeah. We could talk about all the states that really promised that they were gonna get sports betting legalized this year that fail as always, you know, last couple minutes. But, yeah. You know, sports betting, igaming is gonna be the next big wave. I mean, we may may get a state this year that'll legalize igaming. Maybe we'll get lucky.

Robert Linnehan [00:56:51]:

I mean, just throw your hopes out the window for Texas. That's not happening this year. California, obviously, it was not gonna happen. The only I I'll leave you with this. The only state that I think has a chance, a major market state would would be, and I mentioned Minnesota. I I think they finally found some solutions during last year's session. One of the big roadblocks was sort of who would control sports betting, the tribes or the state racetracks. And and then you had the charitable organizations that were sort of in there saying, look.

Robert Linnehan [00:57:25]:

We need some money too because, you know, bingo is gonna be affected by this. It seemed like there was finally a solution at the very end of the 2024 session. It was and now when I say the very end, it was like the final day. They finally came to a solution, and they just didn't have time to sort of find, an overall agreement between the politicians. I think this year, maybe. And especially if that sort of agreement is still in place. I mean, Minnesota right now, I don't know if you guys know everything that's going on there, but there's a huge struggle for power between the Republicans and the Democrats. So something like sports betting could potentially get pushed back if this sort of lingers as a session goes on and you have each side trying to block each other, something sort of nonmajor like sports betting may get pushed to the side.

Robert Linnehan [00:58:16]:

But I I I think of any of the states that are gonna look at it, you know, Georgia, Minnesota, Nebraska, Mississippi, Alabama, I think Minnesota would have the best chance. And but when I say the best chance, I'd I'd put it at, like, 45% right now.

Shane Mercer [00:58:33]:

Right.

Robert Linnehan [00:58:33]:

I don't have a lot of hope for a lot of states this year to get anything done.

Shane Mercer [00:58:39]:

Alright. Well, good to know. I know you'll keep, keep your sort of ear to the beat and, watching it closely for us. And where can people, follow you? How can they stay up to date on your work?

Robert Linnehan [00:58:50]:

Sure. Like you mentioned before, most of my stuff is published on sports betting dime.com. And then you can follow on Twitter or x, whatever you're calling it now. It's at rlinnehan, r l I n n e h a n s r. So that's at rlinnenhansr. On x, yeah, I put publish everything there as well. I'll do some rundowns of meetings, live updates, things like that. So, yeah, find anything there.

Shane Mercer [00:59:19]:

Awesome. Give this guy a follow if you want to stay up to date on all things sports betting, regulatory landscape in North America. Great follow there. Robert, thanks so much for coming on our show. Really appreciate it.

Robert Linnehan [00:59:30]:

Thanks, guys. Thanks for having me.

Shane Mercer [00:59:37]:

Alright. Time now for the grid iron grind, and we've got John Wilson with us. John, welcome in, buddy. Big, big week ahead here with conference championships. But, how you doing? How is your weekend? How have things been going football wise?

John Wilson [00:59:50]:

Good. Good. January has been great. Been like a really good month so far. I think especially pregame, a lot of the it was a, you know, a bad year for the books, a bad year for a lot of sharp bettors. But, I think the underdogs have covered covered all 4 games, in divisional weekend. So, yeah, it's been it's been good. And if you were sharp, you got, like, on the favorite at the beginning or you got ahead of the line movement.

John Wilson [01:00:12]:

In a lot of those games, you won both sides. So the books got got lit up again, I think, in that way. So

Shane Mercer [01:00:19]:

Did did you hit some middles, like some pregame middles?

John Wilson [01:00:22]:

Yeah. Yeah. I had the, like, the Chiefs minus 7, bought that when it opened, and then took the Texans when it closed. They got plus 10. Paid a little bit of juice for that one. He obviously hit that on that, that safety. I know we had that live as well. And then, had the Chiefs in a teaser, won that.

John Wilson [01:00:39]:

Obviously, the Bills won outright, so we won that one. And then what was the other game that, oh, the Rams, Eagles had the Eagles in a teaser and then had the Rams plus 6a half. So scoop that one as well.

Shane Mercer [01:00:51]:

Yeah. Right. Yeah. Yeah. The Eagles, I think, minus or no. Yeah. I didn't eat the Eagles pick and then the Rams plus. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [01:00:56]:

Nice. Well done. Alright. What are we doing with this upcoming championship weekend, conference championship weekend?

John Wilson [01:01:05]:

Yeah. So, interesting lines. I think on our stream, I said I thought the Chiefs would open as an underdog. That's because I make the lines as the Bills to be slight favorite, like a one point favorite. I think that's probably where most people are gonna have it if they're just grading it, you know, as 2 teams. But I think it's that Mahomes factor, the Chiefs, you know, as underdogs in the playoffs. Like, it's just you the books, I think, are just afraid to put that number there because of how much attention that's gonna get both from sharp bettors and public bettors. I do think the public's gonna come in pretty heavy on the bills, in this game as an underdog just because I think they think the Chiefs are are weak and are down.

John Wilson [01:01:41]:

And I think that's probably true, but I think it's you're playing against more than just the Chiefs when you when you play against the Chiefs. Right? So, it's it's it's gonna be, it you know, it's there's some extra points there that I think are are factored in. So I'm gonna see where that goes. I don't really know what I'm gonna do with that game. I do like teasing the Bills on that side, but the other game, I'm I'm kind of a little puzzled which side I want to tease, though I think it makes sense. Maybe maybe you could do both, get the commanders to 11a half, the Eagles to win the game. I think that's that you know, you could kinda just hedge your bet there. But it's hard to imagine this Chiefs team, in my opinion, beating that Bills team by by more than a touchdown.

John Wilson [01:02:17]:

So, kinda it's kinda where it is. But that that Eagles line actually really surprised me. I will say that. It opened at 4a half, 5, and it's actually gone up. Looks like it's gonna it probably will hit 6, and then it'll probably get some resistance. But I actually make that closer to a field goal, but I think that's just because I'm I'm just much more skeptical of this Eagles team than I think a lot of the other sharp money out there is. I think a lot of them I've heard some people say they have the 6, 7, when they model it. I just can't get there, with this Eagles team.

John Wilson [01:02:44]:

I couldn't get there last week. You know, I think the commanders have been lucky. They've been fortunate, but they actually I mean, they just took it to the Lions. They they won that game. Alright. Well, they're the better team in that game. I'm not convinced the Eagles were the better team in that game. I think they got some help with the weather and, you know, facing an indoor team in the snow.

John Wilson [01:03:00]:

And there were a couple fumbles on their and they got the ball in range. So, you know, they got out gain in that game. I I don't know. I I I think giving me that many points within a divisional matchup when those 2 teams have played each other close in 2 games this year, it's I I think I just gotta take the points there.

Shane Mercer [01:03:19]:

Alright. Pace, what do you think? You've been you've been crushing the teasers the this year.

Andrew Pace [01:03:24]:

Lost last week with the Lions, but, I mean, shit happens. So this is the thing. Right? When I look back on this playoff, I thought the Bucks played a phenomenal game in the wild card round when they lost to the Commandos. The Commando, like, they just simply ran into a buzz saw, and I think that was validated last week when they went into Detroit. The most hyped, most bet on, really best ish team in football, best ish team in football. And they fucking stuck it to the Detroit Lions. They scored 45 points. Defensively, you know, they didn't look great in the first half.

Andrew Pace [01:03:59]:

But in the second half, they shut those lines down. They played a a spectacular, game of football, half of football, especially, obviously, offensively. Watching the Eagles beat the Rams, I felt like if I if that game was played out 10000 times and that snowstorm didn't hit the exact time it hit at, the Rams would actually have won that game more than 50% of the time based on what I watched. Of course, there's other factors. But as soon as the snow let up, the Rams flew down the field twice, and then, obviously, they turned it over on downs the second time to win the game. Jalen Hurts looks like people would make fun of Lamar Jackson, and he's a running back. Jalen Hurts looks like just some sort of running back. He doesn't look like he can complete a series of throws downfield.

Andrew Pace [01:04:52]:

And despite them not looking great in that game, they always more or less had the lead. I think they had to lead the entire game. There was a moment there with the safety where they were down one point. The Rams got the ball back to to drive to to go take the lead, and and Williams, fumbled the football. But what happens if Philly gets in trouble here in in the NFC championship or the Super Bowl if they make it. Right? Like and we have to watch Jalen Hurts be a passing primary quarterback. Saquon Barkley, this is credit to the Eagles' offensive line and credit to Saquon, but I also think it's a huge fault of the Rams in this game. Letting him score 2 massive touchdowns where they just handed the ball off and he goes untouched into the end zone is insane to me that they let like, you got a game plan for Saquon.

Andrew Pace [01:05:41]:

Right? What if the Eagles are down and the and this this is now something they can't rely on? So I I don't know. I think they're a lot weaker than people think they are. I'm not saying they won't win the Super Bowl, but I've just seen some serious flaws in their game. God, I want those Bills to win. As for teasers, I just echo John's sentiment 100%. I think you could go either side of the Eagles Commandos and and be relatively safe. I'm going on the Commandos side after everything I just said. And, the Bills side for sure at that plus plus 8 plus 8 and a half is is just beautiful.

Andrew Pace [01:06:11]:

So, that'll be the last, 2 pick teaser of the season. And then we need to know, like, I've really enjoyed doing this stuff with John on. You know, where do we go with this? Do do we pick up the gridiron grind? Obviously, we'll do one for the Super Bowl, but do we do we pick it up, you know, next September? Or, like, you know, what do people wanna hear from John? I think, if anyone can let us know, you know, in the comments or has any feedback or opinions on it, we definitely wanna hear it because, yeah, I've really enjoyed having him break some stuff down and, you know, we do record these things a couple days before they come out. So, like, you know, if John's breaking down the Sunday night NBA game before there's lines out.

Andrew Pace [01:06:52]:

I dont know if it's gonna make sense. You know.

Shane Mercer [01:06:54]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:06:55]:

Perhaps some strength of schedule and future stuff, John. I know you do really well with that that stuff in basketball. And and again, like, you know, that Rams call it 41, 41 to 1 here. I think it was a great bet. You know, obviously, obviously, it's behind us here. But watching that football game and knowing that if they they're 3rd and 2 and Stafford takes that sack. If they can if they score the touchdown, they probably win the game, and they're at home for the NFC championship, like, at 41 to 1. At that point in the game, I think them to win the Super Bowl got as low as 10 point o, in the and when they were still down 6.

Andrew Pace [01:07:36]:

So we we were we actually had a great wager, and it just obviously didn't come through.

Shane Mercer [01:07:41]:

Yeah. No. I really like that with that wager too. And, Yeah. But I we we gotta figure out, maybe, John, you join us for, like, CFL.

John Wilson [01:07:48]:

Yeah. We'll talk about pregame CFL.

Shane Mercer [01:07:51]:

We'll have an American come on and and give us the lines for CFL.

John Wilson [01:07:56]:

CFL is great. You know, we can we could do that. We could talk about see if I do bet CFL pregame. You know, we could do, there's a lot of NHL stuff that I bet pregame that you can somewhat talk about in advance, things like scheduling spots on back to backs, you know, kinda just do a preview of the week. Like, hey. Here's when, like, the big Thursday Saturday slate coming up. You know, it's like, here's some games that I'm probably gonna be betting, like, a favorite on a puck line because of the other teams on a back to back, stuff like that. You know, there's there's some things out there that that you can look forward to.

John Wilson [01:08:26]:

NBA is kind of the same way with those scheduling. You know, those back to backs are pretty rough. So

Shane Mercer [01:08:31]:

cool. Well, we'll we'll definitely have to have you on, though, in the week leading up to Super Bowl too because we're gonna wanna hear, you know, that'll really be the last one. And, and who knows? Maybe we'll have a few other people on, and we'll sort of do a a whole Super Bowl round table or something in a couple weeks.

Andrew Pace [01:08:46]:

Yeah. Shane, at the top of the show, we kinda mentioned, you know, the Jake Elliott missed PAT with with Rob on, and and the safety obviously came up already.

Andrew Pace [01:08:56]:

And the whole conspiracy thing when we, you know, kinda get closer to the Super Bowl, it comes out every year.

Shane Mercer [01:09:01]:

Oh, yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:09:02]:

Last year, the big narrative was the color of the logo. Everyone was talking about how it was gonna be Ravens niners because of the color

Shane Mercer [01:09:11]:

Oh, yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:09:12]:

From the Super Bowl, and how it was right the previous however many years. And then, of course, everyone was talking about the Taylor Swift stuff and that the NFL has to have the Chiefs in for for, viewers, viewership, and all that kind of stuff. And then they see the safety, and then everyone's like, oh my god. The NFL's rigged. So people have to understand. Like, if you're on our livestream, Kenny called the safety out prior. We touched on that. There's a reason why Andy Reid does that in that situation, and it's because the punt cannot be blocked.

Andrew Pace [01:09:45]:

If there's a blocked punt for a touchdown, they can kick on side and still win the football game, and they would have sent the house at that punter. They would have sent every player. They might not have even had someone back to return it. So once you start to understand live betting and value in all sports, you start to see these things before they've happened. Number 1, because you've seen them before. You've seen them with different coaches in different scenarios and different situations. But then you start to expect them where you go, oh, will they take a safety here? And why why would they do that? And that's why. The statistical probability went from near impossible to impossible once that safety was scored.

Andrew Pace [01:10:33]:

It was still would have been a crazy long shot. People have to understand that. And, like, the Jake Elliott missing field goals and missing PATs just go through the season. He's he's missed them. He's been missing all year.

Shane Mercer [01:10:42]:

I mean, he's not the only one. Let's let's cut up some slack. This this season was marked by kickers missing, missing extra points, missing what should be chip shot field goals, just missing. Justin Tucker, greatest kicker of all time, worst season of his life. Like, I don't know what it was, but kickers were missing.

Andrew Pace [01:11:00]:

Right. And, like, just just look at the Rams, Eagles game with, like, Stafford fumbling fumbling, Kyron fumbling. Look at the the Lions game with, Goff throwing however many picks he did. Jamo threw a pick. Yeah. Goff fumbled. Shit does happen on the football field. And when you are in the driver's seat to win a game, you really want to limit that as much as possible.

Andrew Pace [01:11:21]:

And then we just went through these games where it was all below 0, but below freezing, and it's it's snowing on the field. Like, that that further increases, you know, the slickness of the ball and the feel of the ball and, you know, the list goes on. So, like, to all the conspiracy theorists out there, there's definitely validity to some things in some spots, but, like, that safety just simply was not one of them.

Andrew Pace [01:11:43]:

And no one's talking about that. Everyone's just showing, you know, the the the situation where it led to a cover or a lack lack of cover. But also too, whenever you have that narrative, you fixate on the 9, 9a half. What about all the other lines? Like, there was a 7a half out there one point during the week. That line wasn't impacted by it. Right? So anyways.

John Wilson [01:12:06]:

Yeah. You know, with stuff like that, I always say, like, write down the list of things that make it seem like a conspiracy, and then then start writing down the list of things that make it not seem like a conspiracy, and you see which list gets longer much faster than the other. And you can typically find, some holes in in in what you think. It's the same thing is true when people say, like, oh, this is meant to be. Like, my birthday is on this day, and he got this job on this day. So it's just like destiny. It's like, alright. Cool.

John Wilson [01:12:35]:

Now write down a list of all the things that don't make sense, that don't have anything in common, and see Right. What how how how destined it is.

Andrew Pace [01:12:44]:

But yeah.

John Wilson [01:12:44]:

And, you know, I'm like I've I I talk about the officiating and stuff for, like, the the fishiness of things that's going on in games all the time. But it's really just a lot of it's just human nature. You know? Like, players get superstars get the benefit of the doubt on, in calls because the officials are you know, maybe they're used to seeing them. Maybe sometimes they're just they're they're familiar with them. They're friends. They they know they also subconsciously know that it's better for their company when things go well for these these people. And it's nobody makes, like, a conscious decision, I think, most of the time for it, but, it's just kind of human nature. You know? Or when teams are down and they get a 1,000,000 PI flags, like, we see it in college.

John Wilson [01:13:27]:

Right? Teams down 42 to to 7 in a bowl game, and then they get 30 yards of penalties to go down the field and score some garbage at the end. Like, it's just it's the people feeling sorry for these 20 year olds that have gotten their ass kicked all all game. You know? Like, it's just

Andrew Pace [01:13:41]:

Totally. There's a human element to to to all this stuff. And and did did has any like, all that color of the logo stuff last year, no one actually once it didn't come true, you just stopped hearing them. No one goes out and debunks it. No one says you guys are idiots. It's just like it's just done.

Shane Mercer [01:13:58]:

Gone.

Andrew Pace [01:14:00]:

You just don't hear about it. It's just on to the next thing.

John Wilson [01:14:01]:

They'll find the next one.

Andrew Pace [01:14:01]:

You know?

John Wilson [01:14:02]:

They'll find the next conspiracy. Yep.

Andrew Pace [01:14:04]:

Yeah. And and also to back to the safety, the Chiefs wouldn't have done that down 10 because then the

Andrew Pace [01:14:12]:

who did they play? Houston. Houston woulda had the ball with a potential hail Mary with, like, 6, 7 seconds left, or a a hook and ladder 6, 7 seconds left, or if they got the touchdown, the 2 point conversion, they woulda tied the game. They they specifically did it because and these the scenarios where you would do it is up 2 scores where the safety doesn't make it a one score game, and that's the only time you would see something like that. And even then, they wouldn't have done it if they weren't closer to their end zone. If they were at midfield, they may have just run around and punt it. They may have run around thrown it in the air. They may have just punted it, but it's unlikely they would've ran back 50 yards because someone could've caught them, tackled them, scored it and scored the touchdown, kicked an onside kick. It was a perfect storm for that to make sense.

Shane Mercer [01:15:02]:

Yeah. Well, I'm sure we're going to get a lot more, conspiracies floating around. We've got this this big championship weekend. There's going to be all sorts of shit after that. Even leading up to it, I'm sure, especially with the Chiefs being involved, and then, of course, the Super Bowl itself. So we're going to we're going to have we're going to have lots to to talk about in terms of all that. But before we go, quick shout out to our sponsor, Pinnacle. We've been mentioning the teasers all along through the great iron grind.

Shane Mercer [01:15:28]:

Pinnacle is the place to bet those if you wanna get the very best odds. You can get all the different lines that that are mentioned typically over at Pinnacle. And, PACE, we got a contest going on. Right?

Andrew Pace [01:15:38]:

Yeah. So really simple. You need to join our Discord community. If you're not a paying member of inplayLIVE, you can you can join the free section of the Discord. Once you get in there, you just message at Sabrina, your, $10 or more bet slip from your Pinnacle account with a full screenshot. Details will be in the comments here, and that gets you entered for a $1,000, giveaway. April 1st, last week I said March 1st, it's a quarter, the quarter first. It's it'll be April 1st, the first episode after April 1st that we do the giveaway.

Andrew Pace [01:16:10]:

And that's how you get entered to get a $1,000 deposited into your Pinnacle account, and you can head over to pinnacle.com/inplaylive to get your account setup.

Shane Mercer [01:16:18]:

And that is a 1,000 USD, so it's, like, 10,000 Canadian.

Andrew Pace [01:16:23]:

Literally.

Shane Mercer [01:16:25]:

Yeah. Alright, guys. Well, a lot of fun on this episode. Till next week. Pace, John, sports bettors around the world. Keep beating those books. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download, and subscribe.

Shane Mercer [01:16:37]:

We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below. And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code BEHINDTHELINES.