Are Parlays a Profitable Betting Strategy?
Parlays are one of the most popular bet types among casual sports bettors, offering the allure of massive payouts from small wagers. However, while they can be fun and exciting, parlays are also one of the most profitable bet types for sportsbooks.
This article explores whether parlays are a good betting strategy, why sportsbooks love them, and how live betting offers far better opportunities for positive expected value (EV).
Understanding Parlays
A parlay bet is a combination of two or more individual wagers into one single bet. For the parlay to win, every leg must be correct—if just one selection loses, the entire bet is lost.
Example of a Parlay:
Lakers -5.5 (-110)
Chiefs moneyline (-150)
Yankees over 8.5 total runs (-105)
If you wager $10 on this three-leg parlay and all three bets win, your payout could be around $60-$70 depending on the odds. However, if even one of those bets loses, you win nothing.
Why Sportsbooks Love Parlays
While parlays are attractive due to their high potential payouts, they are actually one of the worst bets for long-term profitability. Here’s why:
Higher Hold for Sportsbooks
The “hold” is the percentage of money that sportsbooks expect to keep over time. The more legs in a parlay, the higher the hold percentage.
Example: A single bet might have a sportsbook hold of 4-5%, while a 4-leg parlay could increase that hold to 15-20% or more.
Compounding the House Edge
Every leg of a parlay carries the built-in juice (vig) that sportsbooks take.
When you combine multiple bets, the vig multiplies across all legs, making it increasingly difficult to maintain positive expected value.
Low Probability of Winning
Even if each individual leg has a 55% chance of winning, a four-leg parlay drops your actual probability of winning to around 18%.
The appeal of big payouts hides the fact that parlays are extremely hard to hit consistently.
Massive Profits for Sportsbooks
According to sportsbook reports, parlays account for a significant portion of their profits. Casual bettors frequently chase long-shot parlays, making them a sportsbook’s best friend.
Why Live Betting Offers Better Edges
In contrast to parlays, live betting presents far more opportunities for positive expected value (EV). This is because live odds fluctuate dynamically based on game flow, allowing sharp bettors to identify inefficiencies in the market.
Advantages of Live Betting Over Parlays:
Better Edges on In-Game Momentum
Unlike parlays, which require perfect pregame predictions, live betting allows you to react in real-time.
Example: A favorite falls behind early, and the live odds shift drastically—creating value on a comeback bet.
Reduced House Edge
Live betting odds are constantly adjusting, meaning there are opportunities where sportsbooks haven’t fully accounted for new game developments.
Example: A key player returns from injury mid-game, but sportsbooks are slow to adjust their lines.
Single Bet = Lower Variance
Instead of relying on multiple bets all winning like a parlay, each live bet is independent, meaning a single good bet is profitable on its own.
Middling and Arbitrage Opportunities
With live betting, you have the ability to middle or arbitrage bets, which is impossible with parlays.
Example: You bet Over 45.5 before the game starts. After a slow first quarter, the live total drops to 39.5, allowing you to bet the under and create a middle where you win both bets if the game lands between 40 and 45 points.
Are Parlays Ever Worth It?
While parlays aren’t a great long-term betting strategy, they can still have some value:
For Entertainment: If you enjoy small-stake, high-reward bets for fun, parlays can add excitement to your betting experience.
For “Butter Bets” (Low-Stake, High-Payout Plays): Some bettors use parlays as “butter bets” (low-risk bets) while focusing their serious wagers on single bets. Buttering a sportsbook refers to placing small, low-risk wagers to stay under the radar while strategically targeting higher EV opportunities elsewhere.
Correlated Parlays: Some sportsbooks allow correlated parlays, like betting on a quarterback to throw for 300+ yards and his team to win. If properly priced, these can hold value.
Final Thoughts
Parlays are not a strong betting strategy for long-term profitability. While they can be exciting and provide large payouts, the high sportsbook hold, compounded vig, and low probability of hitting make them one of the worst bets in terms of expected value.
For bettors looking to gain an actual edge, live betting is a much better strategy. By reacting to in-game developments, spotting inefficiencies in live odds, and avoiding the heavy vig of parlays, bettors can maximize their chances of success. If you do bet parlays, treat them as entertainment, but be wary of using them as a serious way to build a bankroll.