How Do Sportsbooks Adjust Lines During Live Betting?
Live betting, also known as in-play betting, has become one of the most dynamic and exciting ways to engage in sports wagering. Unlike traditional pre-game betting, live betting allows odds to shift constantly as the game progresses.
But how exactly do sportsbooks adjust these odds in real time?
Understanding this process can help bettors identify more positive expected value (EV) opportunities, making live betting a potentially more profitable strategy than pre-game wagering.
How Sportsbooks Adjust Odds in Real Time
Sportsbooks use advanced algorithms, data analytics, and market behavior to adjust lines during live betting. Here are the primary factors that drive these adjustments:
1) Game Events and Momentum Shifts
Key moments like a touchdown, goal, or player injury can significantly alter the perceived probabilities of outcomes. For example, if an underdog team scores early in a football game, their odds to win might improve dramatically.
Example: In an NFL game, the Kansas City Chiefs are -400 favorites (80% implied probability) to win against the Chicago Bears, who are +300 underdogs (25% implied probability). If the Bears score an early touchdown and lead 7-0, the odds may shift to -250 for the Chiefs (71.4%) and +200 for the Bears (33.3%) to reflect their improved chances.
In tennis, suppose Player A is a -200 favorite (66.7% implied probability) against Player B at +150 (40% implied probability). If Player B wins the first set, the odds might adjust, with Player B moving to -120 (54.5% implied probability) and Player A moving to +100 (50% implied probability).
2) Time Decay
As the game progresses, the time remaining to influence the outcome decreases. This can lead to rapid shifts in odds, especially in sports like basketball or soccer, where late-game strategies significantly impact results.
Example: In a soccer match between Manchester City and Arsenal, the odds for a draw might open at +300 (25% implied probability). By the 75th minute with the score tied 1-1, the odds for a draw might shorten to -110 (52.4%) because time is running out for either team to score a winning goal.
3) Betting Market Reaction
Sportsbooks monitor where bettors are placing their money. A surge in bets on one side can cause the sportsbook to adjust the odds to balance their liability.
Example: A basketball game opens with the Golden State Warriors favored to cover a spread of -5.5 against the Los Angeles Lakers, with odds at -110 (52.4% implied probability). If a significant amount of money comes in on the Warriors, the sportsbook may adjust the line to -7.5 to encourage more bets on the Lakers. The odds might also shift slightly, for example, Warriors -7.5 at -105 (51.2%) and Lakers +7.5 at -115 (53.5%).
4) Advanced Predictive Models
Sportsbooks use real-time data and predictive models to assess probabilities, factoring in player stats, game flow, and historical data. These models allow sportsbooks to make adjustments to odds.
Example: In a baseball game, the New York Yankees are +140 underdogs (41.7% implied probability) against the Houston Astros at -160 (61.5% implied probability). If Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole dominates early innings with 6 strikeouts and no runs allowed, sportsbooks might adjust the odds to Yankees -110 (52.4%) and Astros -110 (52.4%) to reflect a more even game.
5) External Factors
Unexpected events, such as weather changes, crowd disruptions, or unexpected player performance, can also influence live odds adjustments.
Example: During a PGA Tour event, Rory McIlroy begins a round as a +300 (25% implied probability) favorite to win. If strong winds start affecting the later holes and McIlroy is still under par while others struggle, his odds might shorten to +150 (40% implied probability) to reflect the advantageous conditions.
Why Live Betting Offers More Positive EV Opportunities
Real-Time Analysis
Live betting allows you to watch the game and analyze how it’s unfolding. Bettors can spot trends, such as a team gaining momentum or a star player dominating, before the sportsbook adjusts the odds.
Example: In a soccer match, you notice the underdog consistently creating scoring chances despite being down 1-0. Betting on the underdog to equalize or win may offer a positive EV opportunity before the sportsbook catches up.
Exploiting Slow Odds Adjustments
Sportsbooks sometimes lag in updating odds, especially during fast-paced games like basketball or hockey. Savvy bettors who act quickly can capitalize on these discrepancies.
Adjusting Pre-Game Bets
Live betting enables you to hedge or enhance pre-game bets based on new information. For instance, if your pre-game bet on a favorite looks shaky, you can place a live bet on the underdog at favorable odds to mitigate losses.
Reduced Uncertainty
In live betting, you’re wagering with more information than was available before the game started. This reduces uncertainty and increases the likelihood of identifying value bets.
Balancing the Pros and Cons of Live Betting
While live betting offers unique advantages, it’s important to be aware of potential pitfalls:
Advantages:
Greater opportunities for positive EV bets.
Flexibility to adjust or hedge bets during the game.
Enhanced engagement and decision-making based on real-time events.
Things to Keep in Mind:
Odds change rapidly, requiring quick decisions.
Emotional betting can lead to chasing losses.
Be aware of not overbetting your bankroll due to high-frequency wagering.
Tips for Successful Live Betting
Focus on One Game at a Time: Avoid distractions and dedicate your attention to analyzing one game closely.
Use Low Latency Streams: Ensure you’re watching the game with minimal delay to stay ahead of odds adjustments.
Leverage Betting Tools: Utilize odds comparison tools to find the best value across multiple sportsbooks.
Stick to Your Bankroll Plan: Set a live betting budget, a unit size, and avoid chasing losses.
Final Thoughts
Understanding how sportsbooks adjust odds during live betting can give you a significant edge in identifying value bets. By leveraging real-time information, exploiting slow odds adjustments, and staying disciplined, live betting can offer more positive EV opportunities than traditional pre-game wagers. As with any betting strategy, success in live betting requires knowledge, quick thinking, and responsible bankroll management. Use these insights to refine your approach and maximize your profitability in the fast-paced world of live betting.