Episode 107

Andrew Pace [00:00:00]:

Nineteen seventy four, NFL introduced it introduced sudden death over time. That meant a field goal wins the game. So if you win the the if you win the coin toss, you take the ball, you get into range, you kick a field goal, the game's over, which is just insane. Right? Insane. It took them till 02/2010 to adjust that rule.

Shane Mercer [00:00:19]:

I was just gonna say that rule lived forever. Yeah. It was there for us for so long.

Welcome [00:00:24]:

You're listening to Behind the Lines, a podcast presented by inplayLIVE and powered by Pinnacle, the number one sports book where winners play and never get limited. Go to pinnacle.com/inplaylive to sign up and get in the game.

Shane Mercer [00:00:51]:

Welcome in. It's behind the lines powered by Pinnacle, purifying the sports betting industry. I'm Shane. He's pace. We've got a lot on today's show. March madness is over. The masters is here, which means playoffs in the NBA and the NHL, some warm weather around the corner, and maybe it's not too early to talk about football.

Shane Mercer [00:01:12]:

Yeah. So we got a lot on the go, Pace, but but first things first, Pace, I need to grab a glove. Okay? I made an air on last week's episode, and I've heard about it.

Andrew Pace [00:01:23]:

Oh, no. Did I not catch it?

Shane Mercer [00:01:26]:

So I we were talking about regulated markets. We're talking about Alberta, in particular, moving forward with its legislation. And I mistakenly referred to Quebec as a regulated market in Canada, which it absolutely isn't, mistake made by me. I I think I was thinking about Kahnawake, which is it's is a First Nation reserve in Quebec that does regulate sportsbooks. And so so that's kind of where I think my head was at, but but Quebec is certainly not a regulated market. So a glug for me.

Andrew Pace [00:02:02]:

Alright. I didn't I didn't catch that.

Andrew Pace [00:02:04]:

Had I have, I would have said something, but, I mean, how often do I say the wrong thing when your brain's thinking one thing, your mouth says another? It happens all the time.

Shane Mercer [00:02:11]:

It happens all the time. And and, I'm I'm thinking about one too when I said, a couple of weeks ago, we were talking about March heading into heading into the, into the tournament, and I was referring to Alabama. And I I think I said, Auburn had played Alabama State, but they had played them. So so, you know, there was one there too just just recently that that I didn't, fess up to perhaps in the moment.

Andrew Pace [00:02:34]:

Sounds like you're human.

Shane Mercer [00:02:35]:

Yeah. Yeah. You know, we all we all make a mistake or two here and there. But but this one in particular, I heard about from from our friends in Quebec and our listeners in Quebec. And so, you know, wanna wanted to put that out there for everybody. But, March Madness is over. Congratulations to the Florida Gators, and thank you to the Florida Gators for often, falling behind and storming back to win. They did it over and over again through the tournament, and, I think I made more money off of that single team than any other team in college basketball men's and women's.

Shane Mercer [00:03:07]:

It was just a lot of fun to watch the Florida Gators, even through their SEC tournament run and then to see them go through the March Madness tournament. What what a team. A lot of fun, to watch them and, and profit off them. But, I picked Florida to win all of my, brackets, all of my bracket pools. I had Florida as the champion, so I feel really good about that, but I didn't actually win any of those pools. So I feel good that I was able to pick the right the right champion, but, unfortunately, I wasn't able to to actually win those pools. But, hey. Someone won the IPL, bracket tournament.

Shane Mercer [00:03:44]:

Who was it? How much did they win?

Andrew Pace [00:03:47]:

Jeez. That you just gave a little to do thing on my list that I forgot to to get done. I don't know what the exact tally was. It's about $3,500. And

Shane Mercer [00:03:55]:

Okay.

Andrew Pace [00:03:56]:

Sid won. He takes things pretty seriously at inplayLIVE because I know he also won one of their one of our fantasy leagues, this past year. And our defending champ, he was sitting at the top, almost two years in a row, won one Dallas there. He he almost won a couple years in a row. But a lot of fun following the bracket in and changed just because you brought up Florida and everything. It reminds me a couple episodes back, you know, we're kinda doing a little bit of a primer. And I just picture Ryan Hammer on here talking about Florida, and it's before the conference tournament started.

Andrew Pace [00:04:27]:

And, you know, we're looking at the trapezoid of excellence, and I think you saw Duke way up at the top there. And I think if Duke had a held on, I think they would have taken care of Florida too. I don't they just sort of fell apart. They actually broke some crazy statistic, like, leading field goal percentage, turnovers, like, the whole list of it's like teams in the tournament are 355 and o, and then now they're three hundred and fifty five and one because that Houston come back against Duke. But he said he's like, you know, Florida he he basically said Florida was was the team to beat, that was outside of, you know, that Duke way up at the top. And I remember we looked at their lot their odds. They were 13 to one to win the whole thing. So, yeah, I I and then what you just referenced about, you know, great program storming back and us giving people some strategies on how to bet March Madness and, you know, you can you can kinda learn as years go on.

Andrew Pace [00:05:24]:

But if you're super disciplined, then you just wait for those those really great opportunities. You would've you would've had a strong tournament.

Shane Mercer [00:05:31]:

Yeah. Yeah. They they they really fit into that strategy really, really well and, was able to capitalize on them, quite a few times, getting some some big pluses on them, you know, when they're going into the game as a favorite. Yeah. So that that was just that was awesome. But, tournament behind us now, and and now we move forward. And we've got a lot of, sports to sort of catch up the audience on. There's some big changes, in the NFL.

Shane Mercer [00:05:56]:

We're gonna get to that, in a moment. But, Pace, you know, we always wanna cover what's happening with the sportsbooks and what's happening in the in the, regulated landscape and and legally what's unfolding. And there's a big lawsuit that was launched, within the past week since we, recorded our last episode anyway. The city of Baltimore is suing DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment, which is the parent company of FanDuel, accusing the books of, engaging in deceptive and unfair practices to target and exploit vulnerable gamblers. In this to, the lawsuit, they highlight that FanDuel has at least a 86 attributes for each bettor, including their propensity to gamble and susceptibility to marketing, but a 86 attributes for each individual user of the platform. That's pretty incredible, I thought. You know, Maryland legalized sports betting in 2021. The state, has brought in, brought in $5,400,000,000, in sports bets in 2024.

Shane Mercer [00:07:00]:

So just last year alone, that turned into 60,000,000 in revenue for the state, but none of that money goes to the city of Baltimore or at least goes directly to the city of Baltimore. So, Baltimore suing the sportsbooks here basically saying that, like, you know, they're using all of that data they're collecting to turn problem gamblers into into, you know, serious problem gamblers to the detriment of of their selves and their families and their communities. I just think we're gonna see more and more lawsuits like this pop up, especially across the state where, across The United States where, you know, they just have a culture, more heavily ingrained to seek, litigation, shall we say, than than perhaps here north of the border. But, I do think we're gonna see a lot more of these lawsuits. What what do you think of this one?

Andrew Pace [00:07:55]:

Well, I think this one's a little bit different because, you know, we talk about this whole thing about, like, consenting adults playing on the sportsbook and needed to take responsibility for their actions. This is interesting because it's not, you know, some family suing DraftKings. It's like you said, it's the city of Baltimore as a collective

Shane Mercer [00:08:11]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:08:12]:

Saying, you know, like, you're preying on our people, which is really interesting. I think I I I don't really think I have too much to say. I think I'd I wanna see how that unfolds. There is something really interesting that you just brought up there, Shane. And I think that, you know, if you bet on sports and you do it successfully, you know, whether you're a member of inplayLIVE or not, something really powerful to to think about. 186 attributes Yeah. From FanDuel. So, like, let's unpack that a little bit.

Andrew Pace [00:08:42]:

That is your betting fingerprint.

Shane Mercer [00:08:44]:

Right? So a great way to look at it. Yep.

Andrew Pace [00:08:47]:

If you, you know, if you if you go scan your thumb or your finger or whatever, you know, you get detained by the police, you're in their records and they know who you are. If you come back with red hair and, you know, a big scar across your face and you put your fingerprints back on on those scanners, they go, oh, that's Shane Mercer. He's back back at the cell again because, you know, we've seen you before, Shane. Right? That's your online finger your betting fingerprint. And I think from the standpoint of how you behave on a sportsbook is really important because if you had this question thrown at me this week, you know, this account clipped me right away, knew this, knew that, did everything right, And it's like, okay. Well, they they they know it's you clearly. Otherwise, they wouldn't just shut you down or they suspected it was you clearly. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:09:38]:

So remember that, guys. You have a unique way that you navigate a site that someone else doesn't, the way you click on your bets, the way you place them, when you place them, how you queue them up in advance, and how many things did I just list? Four things. A 82 others. Right? So just put that in your back pocket and remember that, there might be a different way of approaching things from time to time, so try to change up your betting fingerprint as much as you possibly can. Also, Shane, just back to the college basketball. Yeah. The most recent instance of a team winning both the Southeastern Conference tournament and the NCAA men's basketball tournament in the same season last occurred in 02/2007 when the Florida Gators achieved this feat.

Shane Mercer [00:10:31]:

Sounds about right.

Andrew Pace [00:10:32]:

Who's the most recent SEC champion pre Florida? I have to put you on the spot and see if you can answer that. It's obvious once I say it, but if you don't know.

Shane Mercer [00:10:43]:

Oh, the most recent SCC champion to to not win the tournament, though.

Shane Mercer [00:10:47]:

Just the most recent.

Andrew Pace [00:10:48]:

No, no. Won the national championship.

Shane Mercer [00:10:51]:

Oh, okay. That isn't Florida.

Andrew Pace [00:10:54]:

Yeah. Not not this recent. Before Florida. So it's it's happened before 2007. There's a different team.

Shane Mercer [00:11:00]:

Oh, there's one other team in between 2007 and now that's that's done it?

Andrew Pace [00:11:04]:

There might be more between 2007 now, but I know the last SEC champion of the actual tournament was in 2012. I can I can tell you that, and then you can get try to guess who it is?

Shane Mercer [00:11:16]:

Was it. Oh, it wasn't Houston.

Andrew Pace [00:11:21]:

Houston's not in the SEC.

Shane Mercer [00:11:23]:

Yeah. No. Was it Tennessee?

Andrew Pace [00:11:27]:

No. I'm actually trying to remember if Tennessee's won. Kentucky.

Shane Mercer [00:11:33]:

It was Kentucky.

Andrew Pace [00:11:34]:

So as soon as I tell you, that's where I'm like, okay. Of course. It's Kentucky. So Kentucky's notorious for not caring about the conference tournament. Meanwhile, Florida's two last titles are, Florida's a third title. So unless Florida won between 02/2007 and 02/2025, then I'm missing it. But what I was gonna get at is they care about winning their conference tournament. And the way I watch them play, it it's preparation.

Andrew Pace [00:12:02]:

So they say what happens in in public is because of hard work in private, like that classic quote. Imagine Kobe Bryant taking the court for his conference tournament and going, oh, this doesn't matter. Like, that's not mamba mentality. Right? Whereas Florida cared, and Kentucky has notoriously said that they don't care about their conference tournament. They just care about the main tournament. It's like practice like even if it's practice, practice like you play. Go out there, play to win, show some grit, show some heart. And that's how Florida like, Florida's comeback against Houston was remarkable.

Andrew Pace [00:12:35]:

Or sorry. Not against Houston. Yes. Against Houston, it was. But against Texas Tech was remarkable.

Shane Mercer [00:12:40]:

That was incredible.

Andrew Pace [00:12:41]:

Absolutely remarkable. Right? So, like, they had been there, and they didn't panic. They stuck to their their guns. And, yeah, that's how they got it done. Anyways, I just wanted to bring up that stat because I thought it was pretty cool.

Shane Mercer [00:12:52]:

Yeah. No. They and I I think you used the keyword there. It was grit, and you saw it over and over again from Florida. They would fall behind, then they would dig in and come back. And, you know, you mentioned that you you thought Duke if Duke had made it, that Duke would have beaten Florida, but I actually think Florida would have beaten Duke for that reason, because Duke had a fairly easy path to the final until they met Houston, of course. But if, let's say, Duke had overcome Houston, that would have been the first moment of, demonstrating resilience that we would have seen from Duke if they had overcome and and got back and won that game against Houston. Because, otherwise, it was a fairly easy path for them.

Shane Mercer [00:13:31]:

Whereas Florida was challenged over and over again, and they demonstrated that that grit and resilience, every time.

Andrew Pace [00:13:39]:

Right.

Shane Mercer [00:13:39]:

Let's move on to the NFL pace. This is good news. You know, NFL, a big, big part of inplayLIVE betting on NFL football is is sort of, you know, a a moment that the entire community, I think, you know, comes together and then just sort of embraces the NFL season. And every year, it seems like for the last few years, the NFL wants to tweak things. They wanna change things. There's controversy over the tush push for the last few years, and will that will that, you know, get banned? And another big one that they just can't keep their hands off of, and we're gonna go through a a bunch of these rule changes, but one of them that they just can't seem to stop tweaking is the touchback and the and the kickoff. They are now going to be moving the touchback to the 35 yard line. The league expects to see a lot more returns and fewer touchbacks.

Shane Mercer [00:14:39]:

League data saying that the return rate will likely now be somewhere between 6575%. What what do you think? Are are they, you know, are they done with this? Or, you know, is this gonna be another thing we're talking about in a year from now?

Andrew Pace [00:14:58]:

Well, I I think last year, it became a crazy story line because they actually changed, like, the entire format of it.

Shane Mercer [00:15:05]:

Yeah. The dynamic kickoff.

Andrew Pace [00:15:07]:

Rule changes are, I guess, pretty common. And we're when we go through a couple of these rule changes, it's gonna really show that that they are common. In 02/2011, the NFL changed the kickoff from the 30 yard line to the 35 yard line. So that made it easy for the team that's kicking the football, to to achieve a touchback. So it was just that's the rule change. You're kicking from the 30. It's harder to kick it through the back of the end zone. You now get to kick it from the 35 yard line.

Andrew Pace [00:15:34]:

You're five yards closer.

Shane Mercer [00:15:36]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:15:36]:

So if you want kick returns, why would you make that rule change? Well, they made the rule change because they didn't want two teams flying at each other full speed where a lot of injuries were created. So that increased the touchback rate, up to 43 and a half percent, from 16 and a half percent in 02/2010. So basically three x'd the touchback rate by giving kickers the ability to make it easier to to do that. So then in 02/2016, they made the touchback go from the 20 yard line to the 25 yard line to try and de incentivize the kicking team a little bit. So they made it so that the returning team got five more yards on the kickback, but they basically said at the time that that discouraged returns for the receiving team, but didn't really motivate the kicking team to change either. So the whole aim was actually to discourage returns on both sides. So that 53 and a half percent or sorry, that 43 and a half percent touchback rate from 2,011, they they increased it even further. And then in 02/2023, they made it so that if you called a fair catch, but it wasn't in the end zone.

Andrew Pace [00:17:10]:

So, like, if I'm on the one yard line or the five yard line or the 10 yard line, I could call a fair catch now, and I'd go to that touchback spot at the 25. So from 02/2011 to 02/2023, every single rule change was, let's make sure no one returns a kick anymore. Yeah. Right? And it was they're all for player safety, but touch touchbacks got up to something like I think they got up to something like 80%. So that led to 02/2024. So that was the introduction of the dynamic kickoff, which was honestly it was really annoying. People are like, oh, it's a success, or I love the new kickoff, or I'm so excited for the new kickoff. So touchbacks went from 21.8%.

Andrew Pace [00:18:01]:

So, like I said, it was almost 80%. Twenty one point eight % in 02/2023 up to 32.8% in 02/2024 with the new dynamic kickoff. Well, guess what? I mean, 67% of the kicks were still touchbacks. Yeah. And that's with the kick going to the 30 and, obviously, everyone lining up together to start so there aren't two sets of players flying at each other. So here we are in 02/2025, '14 years out of the first rule change that I mentioned, and now we've moved the touchback to the 35 yard line.

Andrew Pace [00:18:37]:

And the NFL is projecting that there will be a 60 to 70% increase in the rate of returns this season. Okay. So that's the history of it, and that's the rule change that's happening. Now from my standpoint, this is separately of betting. But, obviously, Shane, I've got a little bit of bias.

Andrew Pace [00:18:56]:

Because I bet on this sport religiously, and there's certain elements to rule changes that I'm I lick my chops for. I'm like, okay. This is a great opportunity. This is gonna change a, b, and c. And I actually think there's elements of this this kickoff that can be beneficial for us, as a group or, myself individually, however you wanna look at it. But as a purist, the 80 yard touchdown drive is something really special. And now we've taken 35% of the field and awarded it to the team with the ball.

Andrew Pace [00:19:35]:

You gotta earn field position in the NFL. So from that standpoint, if the touchbacks do continue because I think it was Sean McVay in 02/2024 where everyone was trying the kickoff in preseason. He'd touch back every time. In the regular season, he's like, no. Touch back every time. He was just like, screw it. It's five yards. Well, if someone takes that mentality into this season and that mentality catches wind, we're gonna be seeing five yards closer to the end zone.

Andrew Pace [00:20:08]:

We're gonna be seeing, in theory, one one first down, you know, one twenty yard play where we're in 60 yard field goal range, for for some of these good kickers that are in the NFL, especially if the wind's at their back or if they're indoors. So, yeah, from, like, a purest standpoint, I absolutely hate this rule change. From a betting standpoint, we're gonna see more kick returns. That is a fact regardless if they get the percentages that they want. Because of that, there's gonna be more kickoff touchdowns. There's gonna be more kickoff fumbles. That means there's gonna be more points. Last year, scoring was up over two points from 02/2023 to 02/2024.

Andrew Pace [00:20:51]:

That was, largely due to those five extra yards and the change kick rules. We will see that again. Scoring will be up in the NFL from this rule change. And the goal so Bill Belichick was a when I'm talking about the 2,011 to 2,022 rules of the kickoff, Bill Belichick was a genius because he had mastered this pooch kick where he didn't let people get to the 25. He'd kick it into the corners. They'd have to return it, and, he would have his special teams unit flying down the field. And he was oftentimes getting them, you know, from the 19 yard line all the way down to the 10 yard line after the kickoff. So the average starting field position this past year when the kicks were returned, there were almost no examples of them inside the 20.

Andrew Pace [00:21:43]:

Most of them got out to the 26, 20 seven, 20 eight, and 30 ish yard range. So the whole idea there is make them return it, and you haven't you they won't get to the 35 if you handle it well. Well, if they're still getting out to the 30, it's kinda like I don't know. That's what frustrates me. If you really wanna have an incentive for them, I think the kick the kicker and the and the team of of p the defensive team that can tackle them, They should be closer to the where the ball lands, that receiving area. And then you could actually go, okay. If you kick a touchback, they're going to the 35. But if you hit a really good kick return, you have a good chance of getting them down at the somewhere between the the 15 and the 25.

Andrew Pace [00:22:30]:

And if that was the way things went, I would be like, jeez. The kickoff has a lot of incentive, number one, to have a good return for the return team, and number two, for special teams to make a genuine impact on the starting field position of the team that's receiving the ball. So I'm not thrilled with all this, but that's, I think, the outcome that that we're gonna see, this season. And I do hope that the touchbacks are not prominent starting at the 35. I really hope we're seeing a lot of drive starting closer to the 25. I just don't know that it's possible.

Shane Mercer [00:23:04]:

Yeah. I I think you're right on the side of, this will likely lead to more points. I think we're gonna see, you know, more, more returns for for touchdowns or big returns that that put teams, you know, in in range or or, you know, in in the red zone. And, you know, more more sort of, you know, muffed punt or muffed, muffed returns and fumbles and that kind of thing where where, you know, the kicking team ends up recovering the ball and is is in the red zone in in that. So I think you're right. That that will probably continue to see more points, and maybe that's what the league wants. You know? The general feeling out there in in a across a lot of sports is that, you know, more points, more goals, more more runs equals more, entertainment or more entertainment value. And, you know, I don't know that that holds true for everybody out there, but, you know, I I think that that's kind of the way, these leagues sort of look at the public and public public sentiment and that kind of

Andrew Pace [00:23:55]:

Right. But there's also, like so separately of of the I understand that mentality.

Shane Mercer [00:24:01]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:24:01]:

But in fantasy football, there's nothing like these big touchdowns, like, you know, Burrow to chase for eight 80 yards or or, you know, Jefferson ninety yard touchdown. You know, you're taking a little bit of that away too. It's harder to score long it's harder to score those long exciting touchdowns when the longest is 65.

Shane Mercer [00:24:21]:

Yeah. Yeah. When the field's that much shorter. That's a that's a great point. You know, you're not gonna get as many of those, big, big splash plays, yeah, which is which is, you know, not as exciting. So that that's a great, sort of counterpoint to that. Okay. There's a lot of other rule changes that that we should probably get through here.

Shane Mercer [00:24:37]:

And one of these is is, I think, pretty big, in the sense of if you are somebody to bet a side, bet a money line, and that kind of thing. It's the overtime rule. So, regular season overtime is going to look a lot more like, playoffs overtime, meaning both teams are going to get the ball no matter what. So even if the team that gets the ball first scores a touchdown, the other team is going to get a chance to score one back. And for regular season, instead of the overtime period being fifteen minutes, it's only going to be ten minutes. And with fifteen minutes, we've seen games end in ties. With only ten minutes, no score in ten minutes, it's gonna be a tie.

Andrew Pace [00:25:26]:

Yeah. Yeah. Well, I mean, that the the overtime period's been ten minutes since, 02/2017.

Shane Mercer [00:25:33]:

For the regular season? Yeah. Yeah. So so now they're changing this where where, it'll it'll only be ten minutes, still in the regular season, but OT has been fifteen minutes. So that's sort of the difference there.

Andrew Pace [00:25:46]:

No. No. So so over overtime in the regular season has been ten minutes since 02/2017. In the playoffs, I mean, it just goes to a neck the next quarter if you're still tied, obviously. But yeah. Okay. Okay. So let's unpack this this rule change here.

Andrew Pace [00:26:00]:

Okay. So 1974, NFL introduced it introduced sudden death over time. That meant a field goal wins the game. So if you win the the if you win the coin toss, you take the ball, you get into range, you kick a field goal, the game's over, which is just insane. Right? Insane. It took them till 02/2010 to adjust that rule.

Shane Mercer [00:26:20]:

I was just gonna say that rule lived forever. Yeah. It was there for for so long. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:26:25]:

In 2010, they only changed it for overtime. So if you received the kickoff and you kicked a field goal, your opponent got a rebuttal to kick a field goal back or score a touchdown to win. But if you scored an opening drive touchdown, the game still ended. Yeah. In 2012, they took it from the postseason, and they put it into the regular season. So from 2012 until 2022, we watched pretty much Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes if they won a toss that the game was over. They drove down. They scored a touchdown with the exception of Brady doing it to Mahomes in the AFC championship, patriots against the Chiefs in 2019.

Andrew Pace [00:27:14]:

So 2022, the NFL said, you get rebuttal on an opening drive touchdown only in the playoffs. And now as we head into this season, they've carried it into the regular season. So like you said, Shane, you get a rebuttal if you score an opening drive touchdown. But from a betting standpoint, this is probably one of the most significant rule changes that we've ever seen. And it isn't like, oh my god. This is an amazing opportunity. What it is is if you have a tied football game or a game that could be tied like, this is this is where, like, betting experience, I'll say something, and it'll just click for you, and it'll be like, pace. That's obvious.

Andrew Pace [00:27:57]:

Whereas some other people won't necessarily understand because they just don't have maybe a lot of live betting experience or a lot of, like, I guess, awareness watching football where you go, oh, shit. This could now all happen.

Shane Mercer [00:28:09]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:28:10]:

So let's say it's a seven point game or a three point game. Right? And depending on the time left and where the losing team has the football, you might be looking at an under in a game going, okay. Three plus three, they tie the game. Right? Now there's three points in regulation where they can walk it off if they kick a walk off field goal, if there's still time for that. And in overtime, there could be a walk off field goal, but we want six more points to give because they won't kick a PAT in overtime. Can they technically score more than six points in overtime? Yeah. It could go three three six. It's never happened.

Andrew Pace [00:28:49]:

It can also go three three three. It's never happened. Right? Though, it's crazy. We think about those scenarios, Shane, when we're betting. It's they've never happened. Right? So but you you want six to give an overtime when you're looking at an under. Right? Because they don't kick the PAT, and that gives you the touchdown to give. So in let's say the team's down three, they're approaching range, and you want you would want nine points to give.

Andrew Pace [00:29:12]:

And a lot of people might not understand that totally, but the idea is they kick a field goal to tie, and then you have that extra six. And if they score a touchdown to win, the opponent or to to to take the lead, they're down by four. You would lose your under if the opponent scores a touchdown back on you. But in order for you to lose, you would've needed touchdown touchdown. Whereas then if they go field goal, you know you're going to overtime and you've got six to give, or they go field goal. And if it's still regulation, the team that's now driving, back that just got tied on going to win, they shouldn't score a quick touchdown. They should manage the clock and kick a walk off field goal.

Shane Mercer [00:29:49]:

Kick a game winning Field goal. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:29:50]:

Both those instances, we would win and under provided that we're getting those numbers. That has changed now significantly, like, significantly. Because as we head into overtime and, again, this is an example I just said where they're down three. But if the team's down three or seven late and you do the math of the situation and it goes to overtime, we're looking at potentially in theory, it could be even more than this, but 15 more points being scored. And the reason why it's the reason why I say 15 is because with the ten minute quarter, I don't think and I could be wrong. I don't think any team barring some weird playoff situation where the tie really matters to them. I don't think the team that got scored on that scores back won't go for two.

Andrew Pace [00:30:42]:

Right. Why would k. Because think about it from this standpoint, Shane. You have a ten minute quarter. You've just gone down seven. K? And that's the first thing that we haven't even discussed. The team now kicked the PAT.

Shane Mercer [00:30:53]:

They're gonna kick the extra point. Exactly. So that's that's critical right there all on its own. Like, that extra points coming.

Andrew Pace [00:30:59]:

It's massive. Okay? So the the opening team scores a touchdown. They don't win the game anymore. They have to kick a PAT. Of course, they could go for two, but they have to kick a PAT.

Shane Mercer [00:31:08]:

Right. K. They're gonna probably kick the PAT in that situation scoring first.

Andrew Pace [00:31:12]:

Now the the team that's down Yeah. That probably and this is the other question, Shane. Did they defer?

Shane Mercer [00:31:20]:

Oh.

Andrew Pace [00:31:21]:

The niners got ripped to shreds for deferring in the for not deferring in the Super Bowl. But there's an argument that you don't defer because of the ten minute quarter. Because this team has, the average scoring touchdown drive in the NFL, I think, is around seven and a half minutes. It could be it yeah. I could be wrong, but I think it's around seven and a half minutes. So now this team only has two and a half minutes to score back. Separately of that, the the team that holds the ball to start, once they're in range, they know that they can start working on the clock, and they could, in theory, kick a walk off field goal with zeros on the clock because we have seen twelve minute touchdown drives, which is longer than the ten minute quarter. So, like, strategy in overtime for coaching, which we already saw as an issue with Shanahan in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs two years ago.

Andrew Pace [00:32:15]:

Strategy for the for coaching in overtime is massive now. So I don't know the answer to the question. But the obvious one is you defer and you go second. But it it might not be that obvious because the the because of the time. There's only ten minutes.

Shane Mercer [00:32:30]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:32:30]:

The team that if the team that starts with the ball can milk the whole clock and kick a walk off field goal, it doesn't matter. It's the overtime's over. And if you do defer, you might only have a a minute or thirty seconds touchdown back. So that's a massive factor. But back to the point that I was making before, you score the touchdown. You're up seven. Now you have to go score back. If you kick up if you score back and you kick a PAT and there still is time on the clock so let's say the team that started with the ball score a touchdown in three minutes.

Andrew Pace [00:33:02]:

There's seven minutes left on the clock. You go down and you score a touchdown back in five minutes. Right? So now there's, eight minutes used, and there's two minutes left for the losing team. Why in God's name would you give the ball back to them where they can walk it off now with a field goal? Because then it's sudden death after that, and you know you're not getting the ball back. Like, there's two minutes left. You're not getting the ball back. So I think the losing team will go for two when they're down seven every single time with the exception of a draw getting them into the playoffs late in the season.

Shane Mercer [00:33:37]:

If there's an incentive to play for the tie. Right.

Andrew Pace [00:33:39]:

This is where 15 more points is realistic in overtime. But separately of that, if the touchdown is scored on the opening drive and ends seven nothing in overtime, like the other team does not score, that was still that extra single point kicked versus before where it was just six. Yeah. So one, you this is another rule change where, again, it's a a finite number of games, very limited. Not a lot of games go to overtime. And then once they do, if the opening team punts, well, then it's sudden death. It's a walk off six or a walk off three depending on the situation. But if that opening team scores, yeah, it's it it this and the kickoff, they both lead to the average points being scored higher in the NFL this season.

Andrew Pace [00:34:23]:

And, also, mentally, the way we approach betting games like this definitely changes.

Shane Mercer [00:34:28]:

And and just to sort of add to to some of what you touched on there in terms of the drive time and how much, you know, clock you could have milked before and and, you know, may attempt to now. But, again, back to the touchback, rule, you know, fields are gonna be shorter. Right? So so we might see teams score a little bit quicker. And and some of those drive times might that that average drive time might come down, because of that. I think all of it, though, leads to more points. Right? Both both changes have the potential to lead to to significantly more points Right. Not not fewer.

Andrew Pace [00:35:04]:

And it is kinda weird to talk about this right now, Shane, but let's say apples to apples, we're getting the same algorithm. I can see myself I can picture myself right now in a game that's, say, tied twenty eight twenty eight. Right? And we're not in overtime, and I'm getting three to give. And I get really excited about that opportunity. Three to give. I wanted six, but I'm like, I still gotta take three. I think there'll be a walk off field goal. Right? And then in overtime, you're dodging that opening touchdown.

Andrew Pace [00:35:34]:

Right? Am I now I and I don't know the answer to this, but am I now sitting there going, okay, guys. It's it's it's four wins it. We just need one touchdown. Like, am I looking at that that now instead because of the overtime rules? Yeah. I'm like, guys, it's four wins it or it's six wins it.

Shane Mercer [00:35:53]:

Right. Right. Right. Exactly. Right? And and that Yeah. That same team that might be looking to to walk it off may just go down and score a touchdown. You know? And there there's so many ways that pass lead to those four points. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:36:06]:

Yeah. Yep. Anyway, it'll be interesting to see it unfold. And, yeah, you made a you made a good point there. Like, does the algorithm stay the same? Right? Do the sportsbooks, you know, keep it close, or or do they do they move higher too? Right? And maybe you'll get more points to give. I I don't know. Well, I guess we'll have to wait and see, how they kind of, approach, approach those situations and and and those game totals.

Andrew Pace [00:36:29]:

I will just say just, Shane, just before we wrap up on that, the two in 02/2024 when they released the dynamic kickoff, it was projected that there would be 1.5 more points per game. And they figured that sportsbooks were giving two to two and a half points more per game. So, essentially, like, a rule change that tells people they'll they'll be more points. The public's like, overs are back. Like, let's bet the overs. Right? The projected total of one and a half, it actually went higher than that from the previous season. But 02/2023 was historically low in points per game in the NFL. But, yeah, it was, like, I think it was, like, 2.2 points per game.

Andrew Pace [00:37:11]:

Excuse me. 2.2 points per game more or something like that. So the sportsbooks will definitely react, in this in this situation and and increase the totals.

Shane Mercer [00:37:22]:

Yeah. Yeah. We'll see it go up. It's a question of of how much. Right? And and and then how does it hold through a game? That that'll kinda be the the the thing to look at. Alright. More more changes in the NFL. The basically, the refs are gonna get a lot more, help, if you wanna call it that.

Shane Mercer [00:37:39]:

They're gonna be, perhaps less involved in some ways and more involved in in other ways. So, there's gonna be more opportunities for replay assist when it comes to penalties that are called. So penalties called on the field. Alright. Defenseless player, face mask, horse collar tackle, tripping, and roughing, running into the kicker roughing the kicker. But here's the thing. Right? If they miss a call, they can't review it and throw a flag after. It's only reviewable if it's called on the field, and then they can take it away.

Shane Mercer [00:38:14]:

So it's a little bit it's a little bit strange in that sense where it's okay. If if they do call a penalty, there is potential for replay assist to review and take the panel like, pick up the flag, but they can't throw a flag after the fact. And we've seen a lot of missed calls. And so I think, you know, it's kinda I'm one I'm thinking about maybe it should've gone the other way. I don't know.

Andrew Pace [00:38:41]:

Right. So it sounds to me like it's the black and white penalties. Of course, there's always a little gray area, but it sounds like the black and white penalties, you know, the obvious ones. Yeah. But they've only gone halfway.

Shane Mercer [00:38:55]:

They've only gone halfway. Exactly.

Andrew Pace [00:38:57]:

Yeah. Yep. So now if you're an official, stands to reason that you just throw the damn flag. Right? You kinda you kinda throw throw the flag knowing that it can be pulled away if you got the call wrong. But we saw when they introduced reviews for pass interference, it doesn't matter, if it wasn't PI, if they threw the flag, it stood. And if it was and they didn't, it stood. So, hopefully, they take an approach where it is black and white, and they go, yeah. That's that's a penalty.

Andrew Pace [00:39:26]:

And, yeah, hopefully, officials just toss a few more laundry a little bit more laundry on the field. Because the thing is is, Shane, we know when we've lost bets, you know, where it's like, you know okay. Let's let's just for an example, you didn't want a team to score. You know, they're at the 50. It's third and 10, and they get the call right, grabs his face mask. We might be pissed as we see it, and then they slow it down. We're like, oh, you know what? He did. They got the call right.

Andrew Pace [00:39:57]:

We don't like losing. I'd rather they miss that call, obviously, in that spot, and it led to a a punt or whatever in this example that I'm giving. But when they get the call right, it's hard to, I guess, sort of refute it or debate it. I think from a viewer standpoint, betting or not, people do just wanna see those black and white flags not missed.

Shane Mercer [00:40:21]:

Yeah. Yeah. You know, blatant blatant calls out there. Now I don't know if it will lead to to I I you know, do we want more replay assists for what? You know? Do we want the game stopped more frequently to

Andrew Pace [00:40:34]:

Well, Shane, replay assist was the thing that just came in, and it was, like, it was amazing.

Shane Mercer [00:40:38]:

It's great. Yeah. It's a great piece of technology, but, obviously, it slows the game down. It slows everything down.

Andrew Pace [00:40:43]:

Point it really all it would be was the official saying, correction. Replay assist has changed this call, and and it stops the clock for, like, four seconds. I loved the replay assist because they did such a good job of correcting the call without wasting our time as a viewer. So it slowed the game down, like, very, very slightly. We're not talking about a big review here. Replay assist was like, correction. Replay assist has come in and made this change.

Andrew Pace [00:41:11]:

It was an incomplete pass, and boom. We're back. Like, I loved it.

Shane Mercer [00:41:16]:

Yeah. I won't throw people more flags. Like, you know, the scenario that you painted where the ref refs will just throw more flags because they know it can go to replay assist, and they can, you know, sort it out there. And Right. Oh, you know, I'm thinking of that that we might just get more flags just because.

Andrew Pace [00:41:33]:

Yeah. And that that'll that like, again, now we this is, like, two people start nerding out.

Andrew Pace [00:41:40]:

So you have a 40 you have a forty second play clock. Right? You you have a running play. So the clock keeps running. As soon as the player's down, the next forty seconds starts. Replay assist comes in. Let's say the clock stops at thirty seven seconds in the play clock for replay assist coming in. The ref comes in and says, replay assist confirm that there was no flag. We had a running play, so the clock will start running again.

Andrew Pace [00:42:07]:

It should start running again, but it's gonna I I I don't know this for sure, but I'm pretty confident it's gonna start running at twenty five seconds now because that's how the NFL works with the stoppage. So the running clock, the game clock, would have let's say it was at three minutes remaining in the quarter. Right? And we just got a running play. And if they use the whole play clock before they snap the next ball the the next ball, it's gonna bring it down to two twenty. But if replay assist came in, we're sitting there where if it if it came in at thirty seven seconds and then went to twenty five, twelve extra seconds of time was almost added to the game because replay assist came in. But separately of that is the players already know what's going on, and they're in the huddle before the clock starts running again while this is being broadcast to the crowd. So you get the twelve seconds added to the game. Plus, the team that's on offense is gonna snap the ball sooner on average because of the fact that while the refs are saying this thing about replay assist and the clock is stopped, they're starting their, their their huddle or their huddle's already over.

Andrew Pace [00:43:19]:

They're ready to snap the ball much quicker. So, obviously, we look at all these things when we're betting, and I'm just thinking ahead going, that will be a very uncommon but relevant factor, I would say, next season.

Shane Mercer [00:43:32]:

Yeah. That's a that's an interesting way of looking at it in terms of, you know, more time getting at it and and giving the offense a a sort of, an opportunity to act quicker. Right. Yeah. Okay. Another big one here. And and this is sort of the last big rule change I'll I'll bring up, and then there's a couple of other things in the NFL that that we could sort of run through quickly. But this one and everybody will remember this one because it happened in the AFC championship game between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs, and it was a hot point of controversy.

Shane Mercer [00:44:04]:

Did Josh Allen get the first down?

Andrew Pace [00:44:08]:

Oh, ok.

Shane Mercer [00:44:08]:

And, everybody going back and forth. He got it. He didn't get it. It was talked about for days after the game and, you know, the the whole it's rigged conversation and this and that. Right? Well, the NFL is going to, measure first downs electronically. The gang the the chain gang, will still be there, you know, on the field in 2025 to serve as a backup in case there's any issues with the new technology. It's called Sony HawkEye technology, and, that's what's gonna be used. They're they're going full, you know, full electronic chip measuring it.

Shane Mercer [00:44:46]:

They shouldn't need the chains to come out, but they'll still be there as backup. I mean, I I think that this will just improve accuracy overall.

Andrew Pace [00:44:55]:

Didn't they have a preseason NFL game where the Hawkeye technology was in?

Shane Mercer [00:44:59]:

They've used them they've used them.

Andrew Pace [00:45:00]:

Some kicker missed, like, five kicks in a row, and then he said it was the chip in the ball. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:45:05]:

That's right.

Andrew Pace [00:45:06]:

Exactly. Missed all season long. Still missed. Was it Bass?

Andrew Pace [00:45:10]:

I think it might have been Bass.

Shane Mercer [00:45:11]:

Was it Bass? I don't I don't I don't, I'm not sure who it was. There was a lot of missed kicks over the over the course of last season. I I remember quite a few. But, yes, the you know, the it it's gonna be there. Maybe maybe it'll be another, excuse for for

Andrew Pace [00:45:25]:

It was it was the CFL.

Shane Mercer [00:45:28]:

Oh, was it the I I thought the the the NFL used it as well, though. The NFL did, I'm pretty sure, test it out.

Andrew Pace [00:45:33]:

It was Sergio Castillo. He missed, like, five kicks in a game, and he blamed the chip. Then they fixed it, and he missed continued to miss.

Shane Mercer [00:45:43]:

Yeah. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:45:44]:

Anyways yeah. Yeah. Hopefully, they get the chip, you know, coordinated so that it doesn't doesn't impact the way the ball's thrown or kicked. I'm assuming that's an obvious one.

Shane Mercer [00:45:53]:

Yeah. Hopefully. Hopefully, this isn't, you know, a a cumbersome chip, and it's it's sort of, you know, nicely slipped into the ball. No issue, and then nobody even notices it. Yeah. But, hopefully, you know, they'll they'll get a lot more of those calls, correct, which which is great either way. Whether they get the first down or they don't get the first down, I think we just wanna see calls made correctly, and and I think that this will help. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:46:17]:

Okay. A couple of others, quick things to run through. So the playoff, format, there's this this change has has been tabled, but it's not, it's not official is that a wild card team with a better record than a division winner would be seeded higher. This is just tabled. It's going to be discussed again in May and potentially voted on in May. So if a wild card team has a better record than a team that won its division, that wild card team would be seeded higher. That's that's the change that's on the table up for discussion. The next, league meeting is in May, at the May, in Minnesota, May twentieth and twenty first.

Shane Mercer [00:47:02]:

So that's where they'll have a vote on that potential change. They'll also, potentially be looking at the tush push at that time. So, stay tuned for that. Also, the league revealed, that there's gonna be a triple header on Christmas, yeah, in, this upcoming season. Christmas falls on a Thursday, so there would have already been one game on the Thursday. They're gonna have a total of three games on Christmas day. Two of those games on Netflix, one on Amazon. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:47:33]:

So there you go.

Andrew Pace [00:47:34]:

Well, they're doing it because it works.

Shane Mercer [00:47:36]:

Yeah. I mean, people watched. Right? People watched.

Andrew Pace [00:47:39]:

I I hate those days, it being on the on Christmas day, but, it's clear like, the NFL knows what they're doing when it comes to viewership and profitability,

Shane Mercer [00:47:49]:

Alright. Well, on that topic of viewership profitability, let's move over to the NHL and a big decision, their you know, big announcement that came down, over the past week there, especially here in Canada. Rogers is going to continue to bring hockey to Canadians for another twelve years. It's an $11,000,000,000 deal. It's exclusive for Rogers. They have the rights to hockey games across the country until twenty thirty seven thirty eight. It's very similar to the deal that they're just coming off of. Twelve years cost 5,200,000,000.0 and expires, at the end of the twenty twenty five, twenty twenty six hockey season.

Shane Mercer [00:48:34]:

So that was the last deal that's about to run out. It was twelve years. It was a $5,200,000,000 deal. This next one is twelve years. It's an $11,000,000,000 deal. So, basically, double just over double what the previous one was. Rogers will, retain, the opportunity to sublicense games out to, other other broadcast networks, TSN, Tevez in Quebec, and, Amazon Prime, which they which we've seen. And and who knows? Perhaps over those twelve years, we could see some of the other streamers get some of those, sublicenses.

Shane Mercer [00:49:11]:

But twelve year deal in this day and age, man, things change so fast. Technology changes rapidly. And to think that you're gonna go and make a twelve year agreement on broadcasting rights in this day and age to me just seems absolutely insane. But, I don't know. What do you think?

Andrew Pace [00:49:29]:

I think the NHL is the Pac 12 of professional North American sports.

Shane Mercer [00:49:36]:

Okay. Why do you say that?

Andrew Pace [00:49:40]:

I've been betting hockey for a long time. And in 02/2015, '2 thousand '16, you know, it's it's we've gone backwards. So people have obviously seen my betting setup. I had, you know, a few TVs back then and had coaxial cable boxes plugged in, and you'd subscribe to NHL Center Ice through your cable package, and it would pop up. And your latency was approximately ten to fifteen seconds behind the rink. So if you watch a really good hockey feed through the broadcast that you're referencing there, Shane, with this new deal, so if you have a coaxial feed and, like, it's Sports Net playing the Canucks in your city or the Leafs in your city, you've got a good feed. It's about ten to fifteen seconds behind what's happening on the rink. I don't know when it happened, but might have been February where NHL Center Ice, some cable packages just stopped offering it, but then you'd buy it and they even if you still had coaxial cable, it was an IPTV Internet feed being picked up by your coaxial broadcast.

Andrew Pace [00:50:48]:

So now if I go to watch NHL games that are not, say, the Canucks, I'm watching a feed that's thirty plus seconds behind what's happening on the rink. And in some cases, yeah, like, forty five seconds to a minute behind what's happening on the rink. It's unacceptable. It's not easy to watch. They just locked into twelve years with the very companies that have made this the infrastructure for us to watch today. You know, we just reference Prime. Like, even Prime, I don't know how they're picking up their hockey feeds or why it is how it is, but Prime Thursday night football is seven seconds behind what's happening on the field. Prime NHL hockey is thirty seconds plus behind what's happening on the rink.

Andrew Pace [00:51:33]:

Twelve years of this bullshit? Like, no. We've we we we need a we need hockey fans. It's an amazing game to watch. It's unbelievable. We need the ability to watch it as close to real time as possible so that we know what's going on and that we don't hear the horns going off and other people cheering in condo complexes and fantasy football feeds going off ahead of time of what happened in the game before we've seen it. The NHL needs to figure this out. It's been just terrible. You that's where Shane, do you have where do you go watch all your hockey games? Where do you go watch NHL if there's four games coming in at once?

Shane Mercer [00:52:17]:

Yeah. Yeah. Well No.

Andrew Pace [00:52:18]:

Seriously. Where do you where do you watch them?

Shane Mercer [00:52:20]:

I personally, I I'll just watch what I have, and, I'll sportsbook watch. Yeah. You don't. I do.

Andrew Pace [00:52:27]:

You don't?

Shane Mercer [00:52:28]:

I don't. I don't. 100% I dont.

Andrew Pace [00:52:30]:

You guys see me on stream when sometimes I have a good feed, sometimes I don't. I'm like, guys, I'm muting everyone in the chat. I don't want a sportsbook watch because I wanna watch the final few minutes of this hockey game in, without being influenced by, you know, knowing what happens already. And people are laughing at me because they know what happens, and I'm waiting coming in a minute later. Hey. You know?

Shane Mercer [00:52:50]:

Yeah. You know what? And that's that's because you're, you know, you're you're a passionate fan of the sport. You wanna see it in its pure way kind of unfold. And and there's nothing wrong with that. Right? But that's kind of what you have to do now when especially when you're sort of, you know, betting on it with a group of people and and other people are are just interested in the information.

Andrew Pace [00:53:09]:

Yeah. And, like, my parents got the new Rogers cable package, and they they watch the Canucks games together. They like watching NHL. They'll text me, like, three minutes after a goal. Like like, woohoo, Canucks. I'm like, don't worry. They're all they already gave the goal back. That's what I'll respond.

Andrew Pace [00:53:28]:

I'll be like, don't worry, guys. Like, they already gave the lead back. Like, you know?

Shane Mercer [00:53:34]:

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's it's mad. I I just think I don't know how you know, I understand why the league would want to lock up a twelve year agreement. You know, but so, you know, they don't have to revisit it, but, I mean, like, things just change so, so quickly. Think of where we were twelve years ago with the stream like, you know, the streaming options out there and where we are now. It's it's just you know? And and who knows where we'll be in another twelve years? It it's or even five years, like, halfway through this deal.

Shane Mercer [00:54:02]:

Yeah. The the the landscape could shift so dramatically. Yeah. I don't know.

Andrew Pace [00:54:07]:

And and if you are in The States, it's no better there. It might even be worse. Like, the the NHL is not they are the Pac 12 of professional sports in in North America.

Shane Mercer [00:54:18]:

Alright. Well, let let's leave it there because we're we're running out of time. We we got we got a little bit long in the tooth here, but, I also wanna mention, the masters. The masters tees off on Thursday golf. I love the masters pace. I I think I love it more so because of what it represents this time of the year. It's it's nice. We know the weather's getting warmer.

Shane Mercer [00:54:39]:

It's getting great outside. I'm gonna be golfing outside soon. That's what sort of the masters tells me. Right? It's like, you know, hey, Shane. You're gonna get to hit the course again soon. Not that I'm any kind of great golfer, but, you know, I I like to play. I've been playing a long time. Have a lot of fun getting out there, knocking the ball around with the boys.

Shane Mercer [00:54:58]:

I certainly I I would sort of describe myself as somebody who would much rather play golf than watch golf. But when the masters comes on, it's on for all four days, and I and I watch it more so than any other, major, golf, tournament, by far, you know, when it comes to the masters. But when it comes to kinda, like, betting the masters and betting golf, I very rarely place a wager maybe on the Sunday if I wanna get, you know, just as a as a as a rec bet. But, you know, I know a lot of people out there, Pace, can profit off golf, make money off of golf. We've spoken to some. We've had some guests on the show that that said, yeah. Golf is, like, you know, their main thing or one of the main sports that they focused on to to, you know, as professional bettors. And and they sort of, you know, made their living off of betting golf.

Shane Mercer [00:55:46]:

I'm thinking of Adam Bjorn in in, specifically as a guy who, really sort of, talked a lot about golf and and and his, you know, his ability to profit off of it. Pace, I know you like to play golf, but do you follow it much? And and I I don't know you as somebody to bet on golf, really.

Andrew Pace [00:56:05]:

I used to. Yeah. I used to. Definitely, when we started inplayLIVE, that first masters, it was so much fun. We're just crushing hole by hole scoring as the day changed and Okay. Just we it was one of the most fun, craziest weekends of betting ever. We ended up needing to go live, and we're calling all these bets live on different holes and, like, different groups to score on holes. And, oh my god, it was so much fun.

Andrew Pace [00:56:30]:

Those markets, I don't wanna say they're all gone, but they were pretty much pulled after that master's. Sportsbooks are pretty vulnerable there. That was, like, right at the launch of legalization in Canada, I would say, maybe a little bit before then. Yeah, tons of fun. I mean, I I had a lot of fun betting futures and and picking people. One of my earliest betting wins was actually taking Bubba Watson to win the masters. I think it got him at, like, 56 to one.

Shane Mercer [00:56:55]:

Oh, wow. What a hit.

Andrew Pace [00:56:57]:

What year was that? Oh. It was his first win.

Shane Mercer [00:57:00]:

I feel like that's we're going back probably ten years.

Andrew Pace [00:57:05]:

Yeah. So this was in 2012. Twelve. So I've I've I've put $10 on him. So to give you guys reference, if you're all thinking like, oh, my unit size is small. I wasn't even a pro bettor then, but that was definitely something that, when you have a a win like that, yeah, it turned 10 into, like, 5,600 or something. That was the year of the shot, his famous shot in extra holes from, in the trees. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:57:29]:

And then I think for the masters, I had just an incredible run of betting on winners. So I took in 2019, I had Koepka and I had Woods, and this is probably something that bettors shouldn't do. But I was like, I can't cheer for both of these guys anymore. I cash out of Koepka at a huge profit, just to cheer in Tiger. And, yeah, like, so I hit twice in that masters because I got out of Koepka and, won a bunch of money on him, and then Tiger came through.

Shane Mercer [00:58:02]:

That's awesome. I remember that. What a moment for Tiger to win it then. That was that was really cool.

Andrew Pace [00:58:06]:

I hit Bubba at 36 on his second win. I have some really nostalgic masters betting moments. It just you're it's just making me wanna go pick a future for for for this year. But, yeah, those those those would be the the three, the tiger Bubba Bubba that that I won. I definitely have thrown some darts since then. I'm I'm a real sucker for Koepka. Like, I always love betting on him, but he he can't seem to put it together at Augusta. And I actually don't know like, I'm I'm not up to date with golf.

Andrew Pace [00:58:44]:

I don't know if you are, Shane.

Shane Mercer [00:58:45]:

A little bit, but but not, you know, not not crazy or anything. I know that Scottie Scheffler has been playing well. I know Rory McIlroy is is also, you know, up there as one of the favorites, to to win this tournament. And I know he's never won it before. So, you know, like, it's kind of funny to have a guy like him, as one of the favorites to, you know, as somebody who's sort of chasing that that elusive white whale for him. You know? And I think that would be really cool to kind of see him win it. I know he probably has a lot of, a lot of people cheering for him. But, no, I don't I don't really follow it that closely, especially in the off season.

Andrew Pace [00:59:19]:

Augusta seems to be his kryptonite. And I'm not saying he can't win. I never wanna say that, but it does seem to be his kryptonite. And and the thing is is, this is this is like a sort of notorious thing at at, at Augusta is I think the field knows that there's only like, if you looked at the entire field, they know there's only a handful of the golfers that can actually win this tournament, put together four rounds, and kinda get it get it all done. And there's a couple people that are on that list that are really far down, like, have really, really long odds to win. And you saw this time and again. So so a really good example of this was from 02/2010 to February and probably '18. It was almost it felt like it was almost a certainty that up on the leaderboard there somewhere was, Freddie Couples.

Andrew Pace [01:00:16]:

And he he people knew, like, k. Freddie Couples is not gonna not gonna win the tournament this week, but he knew he knows how to play the course so damn well.

Shane Mercer [01:00:26]:

He's always in it. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:00:28]:

Right? He knows how to play the course so damn well. So, like, former champions at Augusta should should never really be slept on. So then you might be thinking like, oh, let's go look at, like, what Bubba Watson pays. No. Don't don't I don't even know if Bubba's playing. He obviously gets the invite every year. But, don't don't don't go bet on him. I don't think he's playing.

Andrew Pace [01:00:47]:

But but, yeah, he he's not on the list, but former champions is is a real thing. So, like, Scottie Scheffler is the odds on favorite, but he knows how to win at Augusta. And knowing how to win at Augusta is it's massive. Like, it gives him such an edge over McElroy. Yeah. Yeah. Did did did Bryson win at Augusta?

Shane Mercer [01:01:11]:

Dechambeau? I feel like he won it maybe three, four years ago.

Andrew Pace [01:01:17]:

The US Open twice. So, like, Bryson's a guy who people love. They love him. And he really struggles in Augusta. He's got this this long ball. He has this sort of he he has, like, this happy Gilmore approach to golf, which is why people love him. It's like you swing out of your shoes. You always go for the green.

Andrew Pace [01:01:39]:

And I think at some point during the four days, Augusta punishes him for it. And, I mean, he is one of the odds on favorites this week. And, like, my heart wants to bet on him because of his hole in one's challenge over his house. That was one of the best social media challenges ever done. Like, my heart wants to bet on him strictly because of that. You know? Like, Xander Schauffele, He's a really good example of a guy that's played Augusta really, really well year in, year out, but something in those four days, he's just something in those four days kills him.

Shane Mercer [01:02:11]:

Yeah. Just looking at the odds here, Pinnacle, pinnacle.com/inplaylive if you haven't signed up. But, looking at the odds on Pinnacle here, DeChambeau at 21 o. So 21 to one, to win it. Scheffler at the top, as mentioned at 6.44. McElroy at 8.2, so just behind him there. You mentioned, Xander, Schauffler there. He's at 27.7 right now.

Shane Mercer [01:02:43]:

So, sort of it looks like he's about number the the tenth on on the list there. One guy that I'm kinda perhaps thinking about in humming and hawing over pace, and this is a guy who kind of had a breakout last year at the masters, that that I don't think many people knew much about him at that time. But, this guy, Oberg, Ludwig

Andrew Pace [01:03:04]:

Oh, he's amazing. He's amazing.

Shane Mercer [01:03:05]:

He really just showed up and and had a lot of fun, on the course. He he looked like he was really relaxed out there for a guy who was I think it was his first time playing at Augusta. Yeah. He he looked really comfortable, and he made a bit of a run, at it. He I he didn't end up winning, but, he looked like he had a really good shot, at winning it, sort of midway through the tourney. And, he's listed there at 20 to one. So I don't know.

Andrew Pace [01:03:32]:

Yeah. I mean, he he really he really ended up struggling with his putter. And, some of the best like, if I look at this list and look at some of the guys that have been coming through on Saturday and Sunday that have had leads at the masters like Koepka, something about their putter at Augusta, like, really good putting players too that that they they struggle. They can't knock down six, eight foot birdies. They keep making pars, and then eventually some trouble finds them. And, they didn't make the birdies to to make up for it. But, yeah, it's it's so it's so much fun to watch. I know nothing about golf, but I think that I probably will play something.

Andrew Pace [01:04:11]:

The other thing too, guys, is, like, if Scottie Scheffler's if he comes out and he's not at the top of the top of the top of the leading board leaderboard and and he gets up above 10 to one, I would be shocked if at some point we aren't like, here comes Scottie Scheffler. You know? So, like, live betting is a real thing. Don't be afraid to pull the trigger on someone that has the ability to to get back in the tournament. It's a long four days. And I'm sure at some point, he'll go on a run. So if it didn't happen, you know, right out of the gate, then doesn't mean it won't it won't happen. Yeah. I mean, looking down the list, I don't know enough about golf.

Andrew Pace [01:04:55]:

But, I mean, a lot of the guys that you'd wanna bet on are are up at the top there. So, I tend to think that there's no value on them then. I always wanna look for some sorta long shot dark horse. Yeah. Wills Alturas, another one that, we've seen come through up at the top of the leaderboard and just couldn't get the putter couldn't get the putter going.

Shane Mercer [01:05:16]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:05:16]:

And Phil Phil's always exciting, but I don't think he has what it takes to to win the tournament.

Shane Mercer [01:05:21]:

I don't know if he's got it anymore. But what what odds on him on pinnacle here? 42 to one.

Andrew Pace [01:05:28]:

See, that's that's just fun. But, again, so, like, Adam Scott.

Shane Mercer [01:05:32]:

Oh, yeah. Canadian boy.

Andrew Pace [01:05:34]:

Adam Scott's from Australia, I believe, or maybe New Zealand or Australia.

Shane Mercer [01:05:38]:

Why did I think he was Canadian?

Andrew Pace [01:05:41]:

Yeah. I don't know. His accent certainly doesn't doesn't say Canadian. But, like, Adam Scott, former champion. Phil, former champion. When you go through some of these guys, it isn't even necessarily that they're gonna win or have a shot to win. But, like, sometimes they pay well just to make the cut. You know? And they know the course.

Andrew Pace [01:06:05]:

Right? So, like, that's that can be a fun way to bet. The the problem with it is if you're betting on someone to make the cut, you never fucking see them, so you don't get to watch them play. Right?

Shane Mercer [01:06:17]:

You don't really get to cheer that one in, like, you know, watching it on TV.

Andrew Pace [01:06:21]:

So, like, TSN does this thing in Canada where, like, they have different hole groupings. So you can go like, you can watch holes one through four, and then you can watch holes five through nine. And, like, if they're on those holes, you flip the channels and watch them go through. And then they make the cut. You don't even care about them on Saturday and Sunday anymore. They're like, ah, he did his job. But the thing is is, like, there's something special about the masters, and guys like Phil know that. Guys like, Adam Scott, they know that.

Andrew Pace [01:06:50]:

They know how to play the course. And, oh, Bubba Watson is playing. He's he's 600 to one.

Shane Mercer [01:06:55]:

Six hundred to one.

Andrew Pace [01:06:56]:

I wouldn't bet Bubba necessarily in any capacity, but an another form two time champion, Bubba Watson. These guys know how to play the course, and there might be really good value on them just to make the cut. Freddie Couples is playing, two two two thousand to one. He's not gonna win. Mike Weir, former champion, 2,500 to one. I I'm not saying to bet on these guys at all, but I'm saying some of them might be a good look to make the cut. And I think for that, we should have actually we should have consulted Cookie Monster beforehand and and seen if he liked any of these dogs.

Shane Mercer [01:07:25]:

Oh, I did. I reached out to him. I did reach out to him. He he didn't really have much to say on it. He was like, yeah. I don't know. He's like, I'm not he he doesn't really he doesn't feel like he's got a good beat on it.

Andrew Pace [01:07:35]:

Okay. Well, we bet two years in a row, we bet Tiger to make the cut. One year, we got him at, like, minus one twenty, and the other year, we got him at, like, plus one ten. It got so sweaty last year. Like, so sweaty. It came down to a putt. He he, like, he made it, like, a birdie on 18 or something, but, it's too bad because I would love to love to bet Tiger make the cut. But the point is, you get a guy like Tiger Woods, right, that we know probably is never gonna win the Masters again.

Andrew Pace [01:08:00]:

But that's that tournament where it's like, I'm playing all four days. I I know how to play this course. I know how to win this course. I am playing all four days. And by the time they get to Saturday, they're just having fun. They're just out there having fun, and I think there's a few guys that fall into that category for, for this tournament. So, if you know someone that's informed, that's a huge dog, that knows how to play the masters, take them take them to make the cut.

Shane Mercer [01:08:24]:

Yeah. Why not? Right? Why not? You know, it gets me thinking, though, Pace. Like, why don't we bet more on golf? You know, it's sort of that time of year where, you know, there's there's, you know, there's not as much happening, especially as we sort of, you know, after NHL playoffs, after NBA playoffs. And, you know, we're talking about the CFL and and, you know, we get into the dog days of summer where it's just sort of baseball and CFL. You know, I I just sometimes question like, hey. Why don't we look at exploring more edges in golf? And I know people out there are doing it. You know, have you thought about it? Have you talked to people about it?

Andrew Pace [01:09:02]:

No. Not at all. I think there is a little bit of a, I would say, a problem with inplayLIVE from the standpoint of we follow the money. And Yeah. Oftentimes, when we follow the money, it leads to us all doing the same thing, and then it can lead to a tunnel vision. Right? So it's like Yeah. Here's everything that you can bet on. And this is what isn't working, and this is what isn't working.

Andrew Pace [01:09:24]:

And then it all sort of funnels into here, and then you go, okay. This is now inplayLIVE sort of pigeonholed to what it is that we're currently doing. That's a good process because it's trial and error, you know, going into into that, but then it has to repeat. So in order for us to to to bet golf really successfully, we need a group of people that's really devoted to doing it, finding edges and angles. And and that's how we have led to a lot of the things that we we are currently doing. Right? Yeah. It just you gotta find the people that are really passionate about the game. Like, I'll I'll sure.

Andrew Pace [01:10:01]:

I'll be passionate as a fan for the Masters, but I know myself personally. I don't I don't have the capacity myself to lock into golf to the level that's needed to to win. So it takes a guy that loves the game, that has the capacity, that goes, I'll follow pace for hockey, but I'm not gonna be an expert at hockey. Or, you know, I'll follow John for NBA, but, I'm not gonna follow the NBA. I'll I'll take his bets when he calls them, but I'm I'm gonna be locked in on on golf.

Shane Mercer [01:10:30]:

Yeah. Well, if any of you out there are listening and thinking, yeah. Hey. Why doesn't I pay a bet more on golf? But you love golf, and you're actively looking at golf, and you think you've identified some edges, reach out to us. Let us know. You know, we don't necessarily need to expose your edge, but we'd love to sort of chat about it and, you know, encourage you and maybe bounce some ideas off and that kind of thing. We'd love to sort of hear more about it and, you know, it's kind of like research and development, so to speak. Right?

Andrew Pace [01:10:55]:

Yeah. Yeah. But on that note too, I have bet golf, and I have bet it very successfully. It's just the edges that I so I'm very much the kind of person where if an edge dries up, I find the next one, whereas golf was never my thing. So it's like, okay. I've made money doing this. The edge dried up, and and now I'm not going, okay. What's next in golf? You know, there there are definitely ways to make money for from betting on it.

Andrew Pace [01:11:19]:

So, yeah, if if you're into this stuff, then by all means, let's, let's have a conversation. Yeah. Let's have a conversation.

Shane Mercer [01:11:27]:

Alright. Well, we've talked a little bit about, NHL and NBA playoffs. I've mentioned it a few times. We are right around the corner from, full on playoffs. NBA, begins at, like, the end of next week. I think even playing games may start, middle of next week, but but we're right there, and, we're gonna be talking more about playoffs. We're gonna get John in, for next week's episode for, one of the grind segments. He's really gonna dial into to NBA playoffs for us.

Shane Mercer [01:11:57]:

So, Pace, looking forward to that. But, anything else that that you wanna share with the audience before we, before we sign off for this week?

Andrew Pace [01:12:04]:

No. Let's rock and roll. Enjoy the Masters.

Shane Mercer [01:12:07]:

Alright. Well paced to you and sports bettors out there around the world tuning in to the Masters beginning on Thursday. Till next week, keep beating those books. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download, and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below. And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code BEHINDTHELINES.