Episode 108

Joseph Buchdahl [00:00:00]:

Mean, that partly that is is is to do with government legislation in The UK, but a lot of it is is probably their own business model as well, whereas Pinnacle is completely the opposite. They are happy to educate because educating punters means more turnover.

Shane Mercer [00:00:12]:

I think I can have a guess at what book that might you might be referencing there. Is it is it is it mostly green on their website?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:00:20]:

I'm gonna absolutely say nothing.

Shane Mercer [00:00:23]:

Fair enough. Alright.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:00:24]:

I neither confirm nor deny.

Shane Mercer [00:00:27]:

Gotcha. Gotcha.

Welcome [00:00:28]:

You're listening to Behind the Lines, a podcast presented by inplayLIVE and powered by Pinnacle, the number one sports book where winners play and never get limited. Go to pinnacle.com/inplaylive to sign up and get in the game.

Shane Mercer [00:01:12]:

Welcome in. It's behind the lines powered by Pinnacle, purifying the sports betting industry. I'm Shane. Pace is off this week, but we've got the great Gosu joining us in a little bit for some NBA playoffs. But first, an independent sports betting analyst with decades in the game and the author of several books, including his latest, Fixed Odds, Sports Betting, and Monte Carlo or Bust. He's an expert in probability theory and betting risk. Joseph Buchdahl, thanks for joining us on the show. How are you, man?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:01:45]:

Thanks for having me, Shane. I just have to do one correction for you. The fixed odds book was the first one. It's not the not more of a more recent one. That was actually goes back twenty years or over twenty years now. Wow. But you're right. The the Monte Carlo was was the the most recent.

Shane Mercer [00:02:00]:

Yeah. You know what? I I said I said that was the most recent. I meant to say Monte Carlo being the most recent, and I I had them just sort of flip flopped in my notes There.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:02:08]:

Yeah. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:02:09]:

So so yeah. Thanks thanks for for correcting me on that. But I think fixed odds sports betting was sort of your your breakthrough book initially. Right?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:02:16]:

Yeah. I mean, that was the one that I wrote. Yeah. What was it? Published in 02/2002 or 02/2003, and it was really kind of came off the back of doing a lot of stuff on betting forums and just writing a load of stuff. And I thought one day, you know, that I'm I'm not getting paid for this. It's just it's all gonna get lost. Why? I need to put this down and just woke up one day and thought, oh, I need to write a book about this. So I wrote the book and then found the publisher, really kind of the the backwards way of doing it.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:02:40]:

But, fortunately, I found a publisher that took it, and the rest is history. So, yeah, they've they've taken all my my other three books over the years. But it was the first one that got me into it. So it was really specifically about fixed odds, football betting primarily. And, I mean, obviously, in in The States, you you know that as money line. There's really very little on Asian handicap, little on point spread, and so on. But, yeah, fixed odds or money line as you as you call it.

Shane Mercer [00:03:03]:

Right. Yeah. And I really wanna get into into your latest one, Monte Carlo or bust because I found that interesting. Really dives into to probability. But but but before we get there, a little bit about sort of, you know, your backstory, how you got here. And and I'm really sort of hoping, you know, you can help our audience become smarter, more disciplined, data informed sports bettors. You know, many in our audience do a lot of live sports betting in PlayLive, of course, as the as the name kind of puts it. Do you do any live betting? How do you approach betting? What do you bet on these days? What's your focus?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:03:35]:

I have never really got into live betting at all. I've always taken the view that, it's you need so much more data for that, and I I've always taken historical approach. And, ultimately, it's it's not something that I've I've been able to I just haven't got the access to the data, and I've never really felt the need to do it. I think it's also more algorithmic more algorithmically driven. And so in my view, it would be harder to beat. So, you know, over the years, I've I've I'm not the as people probably know, I'm not the most sophisticated bettor. I'm not the the best bettor out there. I'm good enough to beat what we call the soft books or the recreational books in The UK.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:04:11]:

I was never really good enough to beat the sharp books and and never really had the motivation to do so because I was making an income through through affiliation anyway. So yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:04:20]:

Right. Yeah. And we'll get into a little bit more about about sort of how you navigate the SoftBooks and and kinda keep going with them because, you know, that's a whole issue on this side of of the pond that you guys have been dealing with for a long time. We just talked a little bit about that off air. We'll we'll get into that in a little bit. But, you know, first, you know, you've been spending so many years and in all your years studying probability in markets, you know, what's the most surprising thing you've learned about how people approach betting?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:04:46]:

I mention this every time I'm asked these kind of questions, and I suppose it's it's it maybe have was surprising in the early days. It's not really so surprising to me now that I've learned a lot about the psychology of betting. It's the overconfidence that people have. You you see, you ask a hundred people, survey a hundred people, and they say, hey, do you think you're good enough to beat the the bookmakers? And you probably find that the average of maybe half, maybe more than half will say, you know, I I can I can do it? I can win. Of course, the reality is not the case. And and and even the ones that are are actually they'll they'll look at their records and they'll tell you that they're winning. And in fact, if you actually got to see the real record, you'd find that they're not. And so it's it's the overconfidence.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:05:28]:

It's probably and it's probably the most surprising thing to to bettors that they they will learn the hard way. Over time, they'll find out actually that they what they thought they were good at is not necessarily that that is is the case. They it's it's a really hard knot to crack. And so for most bettors, that's probably the most surprising thing for them that over the the their journey of this thing, it's, it's much harder than they thought they might have once originally imagined to do.

Shane Mercer [00:05:54]:

Yeah. I could I could imagine that given the specialty to that. I think most average bettors, people out there, you know, recreational bettors don't even track their wagers. So how would they even know?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:06:04]:

Well, some of them do, and then some of them probably won't tell the truth so much. So or or they'll probably do not denial is one of the it's it's very easy to deny the truth, to be honest, sometimes Yeah. Even to oneself.

Shane Mercer [00:06:14]:

Yeah. Yeah. Big big big time. And, yeah, you know, if you're not if you're not tracking it or you're not doing it diligently, you know, or or you'd maybe you say you are, then then, yeah, you know, you're not really gonna have a a true picture of of what your your betting record looks like.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:06:28]:

Yeah. Yeah. I think a lot another thing that people kinda make mistakes about is the is the way they stake as well. I mean, I mean, obviously, the most important thing that I I've always told people not to do is chase their losses, and it's probably one of the first things that an amateur will do is that they'll they'll lose some, and they'll think, well, I need to try and recover that and up the stakes or change the staking plan or start to do things differently. And it's it's not a clever thing to do, really, especially not certainly not to chase losses because if you haven't changed if you if if you're not any more skilled just because you start to increase your stakes, it's just you're gambling more. That's all you're doing. So

Shane Mercer [00:07:02]:

Let let's talk a little bit about that. You know, because you you do focus a lot on on psychology, psychological traps of of betting, recency bias, and and as you just referred to, you know, chasing losses. How do you think that that might manifest differently when it comes to, live betting versus pregame, pre match betting?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:07:23]:

I think everything's just gonna play out so much more quickly in live betting because the the market is just moving so much quicker. And I you know, as I said before, it's not something I've I do myself. So I'm only I don't have an experience of it, but I can only imagine that these these biases will just play out much, much faster and potentially be more aggressive because you're probably not paying attention to those the biases that you may be experiencing just because everything's just moving so much more quickly.

Shane Mercer [00:07:47]:

Right. And and those biases let let's dig into that a little bit more because, you know, you you've written a lot about, randomness, variance. What's the difference between, you know, seeing something that's a signal versus noise and and how those are influencing your biases? You know, how can bettors train themselves to to distinguish the difference?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:08:10]:

Well, you have to think long term. I mean, like Nate Silver said with his poker, it's you the uncovering the signal, it can take thousands and thousands of plays, and it's the same with with sports betting. I mean, there are quicker ways to do it. You can look at the closing line. Of course, some people don't don't agree with the closing line philosophy. But if you're just looking at your results and your outcomes, it can take months and even years to actually uncover this signal. And so you have to if if you think if you have a series of wins and that that's not a signal at all. It's it's because that that's potentially just mostly variance and mostly mostly good luck.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:08:43]:

And, of course, the flip side, if you have a series of losses, it could it could be not evidence that you're a bad player. It could just be bad luck. And so it's teaching a bettor to understand that it takes time for you to to separate that signal and the noise. And no matter what kind of betting market you're in, they'll it will always take the the the signal is always so much more weaker than the noise, and it's just understanding that reality. I think that's probably the hardest lesson. And, certainly, the third most important lesson beyond not chasing losses, the sports bettor should should learn for sure.

Shane Mercer [00:09:13]:

So let's let's dive into that a little bit. How would you describe a signal? What is a signal? How do I recognize it?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:09:21]:

Well, I mean, to go back to the closing line, obvious signal would be if the bookmaker recognizes that you're bringing information to the market. And one way that that happens is if they reduce their odds once you've placed your money. That would be a quick way of signaling, but, of course, you can't know instantaneously that that's it's your money that's doing that. And if if there are there are other reasons that why the closing line or or or market moves might not be evidence of your information. And so then all you've got to go on is your outcomes. And as I said, if you just base everything on your outcomes, it can take hundreds and thousands of plays statistically before you can be sure that you've actually done something beyond realms of chance.

Shane Mercer [00:10:05]:

Right. Yeah. That that's a that's a a good way to look at it. You know? I I could think of some some markets, especially a sharp book that that will move when you bet the line potentially, and and how often, you know, even even myself, how often, you know, I've moved the line and then seeing, like, oh, I moved this. That must be a good sign. You know?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:10:22]:

It's it potentially, it's it's a quicker way to get the answer you're looking for. It's a quicker way to be sure that you you have some skill and you are bringing information to the market. I mean, ultimately, that's what it it is. It's just information market, and and they're paying you for your information. And if you bring data that's useful and data that they don't already have, they'll pay you for it. And and and that will show up in terms of the movement of the line or the price.

Shane Mercer [00:10:46]:

Yeah. Yeah. And we've had, you know, a lot of, SharpBook operators and people who have have experienced such SharpBooks on the show here before. And, you know, they they've used that term quite a bit, you know, buying information and and, you know, how how valuable that can be. Okay.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:11:02]:

I mean, that's certainly the that's the kind of the lesson that Marco Bloom tells or when he was at Pinnacle is it's how he saw it operating, and why would I be one to disagree with that that philosophy? It's coming from the horse's mouth as it were, isn't it?

Shane Mercer [00:11:16]:

Yeah. Yeah. And, we had Paris Smith on, several months ago, almost a year ago now. And, same same idea there with what she was doing at Pinnacle, as well.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:11:26]:

Exactly, yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:11:26]:

You know, and trying to trying to just, you know, get as much information as possible and then and then, you know, sharpening their lines based based on that.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:11:33]:

Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:11:34]:

Is any any other ways to identify a signal, other than other than how the market's moving, whether it's moving with you or against you?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:11:44]:

I just like I said, you if you if you just base it on outcomes, you you can do it, but it just takes much longer, I guess. Yeah. I mean, it's the closing line is the obvious one, isnt it.

Shane Mercer [00:11:57]:

Mmhmm,

Joseph Buchdahl [00:11:57]:

Or the market moves. It's it's one that I've used to to to demonstrate whether I've the system that I'm doing is is working. And, potentially, will that will work much faster. I mean, I've got I think there's a little section in the book there, Monte Carlo, where you you can you can uncover that signal in in as few as 50 to a hundred plays. So that that's the obvious one to use. The trouble is, of course, if you're say if you're a odds originator, then the bookmaker doesn't necessarily know you'll bring any information. I I mean, that would that I I I would always argue that that's gonna show up in the end, if they recognize you as a as a as a bettor that is bringing information. They may not know it in the early days, but I would assume that in the end, they would they would figure that you're you are bringing information to the market.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:12:42]:

But if you're initially at odds originator, they may not be aware of what you're doing. And then, of course, what how how are you going to know? Well, you you've got your results, but it takes so long. So

Shane Mercer [00:12:54]:

Yeah. Yeah. And and, you know, you you have to have that that long term mindset. You know, in in Monte Carlo or bus, you know, you explore, simulation and modeling. You know, are there simple, you know, models or, oristics to that that Live Bettors could use in real time to inform their decisions?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:13:16]:

It depends what you mean by model. If you're talking about forecasting, I mean, that, primarily, I wasn't so interested in predictions

Shane Mercer [00:13:26]:

Right.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:13:27]:

With with this book. I mean, there is a there is a little chapter on how where Monte Carlo can be used with prediction models. But most of what I was doing was showing how it could be used for demonstrating when when you've got us when you found your signal against the noise and also showing how when you're when you're winning and also, like, the maximum drawdowns and losses and that sort of stuff and show them how you can model those things, and then in particular, the various uses it has with with different staking plans and particularly the the Kelly staking plan as well. So it was less it was less about prediction and more about the other facets to your gambling or to your to your sports betting play.

Shane Mercer [00:14:10]:

Right.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:14:11]:

But no. I mean, I I I did use it for for, for example, something that was at the Dixon Coles model in soccer prediction forecasting. And you can probably use that in ice hockey too. I don't know if the I can't remember if the Dixon Coles is used in ice hockey because it's kinda similar market. But it's yeah. The the the the Monte Carlo simulation is probably less useful as a predictive method of modeling. What But you would use it you would use it as part of other forecasting methods.

Shane Mercer [00:14:45]:

I've gotta ask you. Sorry. What were you referring to there? Diction Coles? What what is that?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:14:49]:

Diction Coles. It's, so it's a prediction model based on the Poisson distribution. So it's based on so goals in soccer are distributed roughly according to Poisson distribution. So you get quite a lot of games with naught and one goals and then some with two and then fewer three and four and five. So it's a kind of an asymmetric distribution, and you can use it. And it's assumed that goals are roughly distributed according to this this this probability distribution. And from that, you can make predictions on on actual outcomes of whether the team how many goals will be scored for a particular match. And then from that, you can base the probability of a home win or a draw and a away win.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:15:30]:

And, I mean, in the early days, it's probably what the bookmakers were doing in terms of predicting their their home draw and away odds and correct scores and that sort of thing. And I guess it is probably also used in italki to a degree as well. I mean, it's a it's a pretty old model now. It was one of the early ones developed in the nineteen nineties, I think. It was or it was studied by a couple of mathematicians in The UK called Dixon well, their surname for Dixon and Coles. And so that's why the model's called Dixon Dixon Coles model. And in the in the book, I I used it using expected goals to, like, make predictions of and I that was not so much making predictions of specific matches, but I used it to then run a simulation of how the remainder of the COVID season in 2020 would play out in the English Premier League. So if I used the the, expected goals within a Dixon Coles model to predict the the outcomes for each each of those games and then run and you run the simulation.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:16:27]:

Like, you get the probabilities from that model, but then you'd use the the Monte Carlo simulation, run it hundred thousand times, and then see what the the average outcomes were and then predict who was gonna be the the Premier League winner and that and that sort of thing, who was gonna get top four and who was gonna get relegated. So that's kind of where you would use it for for that kind of simulation.

Shane Mercer [00:16:47]:

Right. Go does does that sort of simulation not just look at, who's scoring like, which team is scoring how many goals and how frequently, but does it look at the timing of the goals?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:17:01]:

Not not specifically, but you could develop a more sophisticated model if you had the data. Yeah. For sure, you could you you you but you'd need more data on on historical data on times of goals, that sort of thing. But I wasn't looking that. I mean, I don't have that data. So but for sure, that's I'm no doubt that's what the bookmakers will do because they they will have access to all the the best of stats and so on. So they'll yeah. There's no doubt they will be doing that sort of thing.

Shane Mercer [00:17:24]:

I I I'm no expert in in, in in betting soccer, football. You know, but, yeah, hockey, you know, is a big part of of what we do at at inplayLIVE. You know, there's a lot of late goals in hockey, and and we tend to focus on specifically those goals that might come late, or or even lack thereof sometimes. In in soccer, though, just anecdotally sort of having watch you know, watching soccer myself and and and, just sort of appreciating the game. I I feel like we tend to see a lot of late goals in soccer too.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:17:56]:

That's the it's standard. It's there's more goals in the second half. There's more goals in the last fifteen minutes. There's more goals in in extra time as well. So not extra time, injury time. And that's just that's just the how the game plays out. I think it's it's probably a number of factors why there is is probably motivation to win by the by the team that needs to win or type players getting tired, those sorts of things. So there's there's there are various reasons as to why.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:18:24]:

And I think it's it's pretty standard in in those sorts of low scoring games that you tend to see more bigger numbers in the second second half, second periods, and and later on the game. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:18:34]:

More more action, more intensity, more desperation, motivation shift, all of that.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:18:40]:

Yeah. And then, obviously, player tiredness.

Shane Mercer [00:18:42]:

Right. Right. And and on on the especially when it comes to the defensive side of things. Right. That that all makes sense. I I wanna sort of, throw a quote at you. I think I think this comes from, I think it comes from Monte Carlo or bust, but I I I could be mistaken there. But I think I think you said, the real test of a bettor is not whether they can win in the short term, but whether they can avoid destruction over the long term.

Shane Mercer [00:19:06]:

And I I think this focuses on bankroll management, but also emotional management. Can you sort of elaborate on on how the two kinda go together?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:19:16]:

Yeah. I guess, in short, it's really important that the sports bettor learns how to lose. And so that means taking the emotional aspect out of it and almost disregarding the results. If if you truly have a signal, truly have skill, the kind of the short term results shouldn't matter. And and and and when you lose bets, it really you should just forget about it and move on to the next one. I mean, I'm just trying to think of an example recently. Was it well, probably Rory McIlroy last night.

Shane Mercer [00:19:46]:

Oh Yeah.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:19:46]:

He did was a spectacular example of it where he completely screwed up in the last the last hole and then and then but delivered in the in the in the, the tiebreak, the playoff.

Shane Mercer [00:19:57]:

What drama?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:19:58]:

And then Roger Federer. He he he gave a really, really good lesson of this as well recently. I think he he was I think when he was accepting his honorary degree somewhere in one of the Swiss university, I think it might have been. And he asked the audience he said, how many points do you think I lost in my career? And, of course, anyone that understands tennis will will know the answer, but but then it obviously, they're they're all guessing. And then he said, it was about it was about 48%. I only won 52% of my points. So nearly every other point, I lost. Now he's making the the case.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:20:34]:

If I if he dwelt on that emotionally, it'd be really, really hard to to to be a good player and and to and to then to win the following points. But that's part of tennis play. And in a way, it's part of all sports betting. It's certainly part of sports betting. If you emotionally dwell on your losses, and, of course, one of the strongest biases is loss aversion. So when we lose it, as Daniel Kahneman told us, it hurts twice as much as winning is enjoyed. If you're if you're bad at emotionally re regulating the the pain of that, you're never really gonna succeed in these fields, whether it's sports or sports betting. And that was kind of a really good lesson that he gave.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:21:13]:

You you you you put it out of your mind, and you move on to the next one. Obviously, if you're not a skilled bettor, it's I what I'm not saying is you you put something out of your mind, and then you move on because you think you're gonna win the next one

Joseph Buchdahl [00:21:28]:

And then maybe you up your stake, and then you lose that one, and then maybe up your stake again. That's not the lesson I'm I'm I'm giving. I'm saying emotionally to to to regulate your sports betting. You need to forget about the outcomes. It's not about the outcomes. It's completely about the process.

Shane Mercer [00:21:39]:

Yeah. What what you just referred to there about upping the stakes and chasing the losses, I I think, you know, is, you're describing the Martingale, the good old fashioned Martingale that that a lot.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:21:49]:

Yeah. Or or any one of those systems. It could be or the Lambert system. And anyone any progressive staking is basically gambling suicide, really. In the end, it's you don't do it.

Shane Mercer [00:22:00]:

Yeah. Talk to me a little bit more than about bankroll management because that's the other side of of that equation. Right? It it's it's, you know, like you said, you gotta balance your emotions and and sort of learn to lose. But, how do you how would you go about learning to effectively manage the bankroll with the emotions? And that can also mean learning to win.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:22:22]:

First of all, you gotta know how good you are. And then once you know that, you can then decide what kind of staking in money management you want to to use. And, also, it depends on the market you're in. You might you might just decide, look. Let's just go for simple fixed size stakes, level stakes for everything I do, or you might decide to go for a fixed profit system where you aim to win the same amount for every bet. Or you might be more sophisticated and do a more proportional staking, so you it's it's when you get into the realms of Kelly, so percentage staking. So you you as you win more, you increase your you're you're betting the same percentage, of your existing bankroll. And as your bankroll starts to increase, you start to increase that.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:23:03]:

And then, of course, Kelly's taking takes not only that into account, but it takes into account the edge that you have or you believe that you have of every bet as well as as the odds that you've got. There are dangers and pitfalls with Kelly staking because it can be quite aggressive. And what most people who in who use it will argue is that they you you employ some kind of fractional staking or fractional Kelly staking. So rather than bet a full Kelly, so you'd bet you'd bet like a half Kelly or a quarter Kelly to to reduce the, the risk. Obviously, you reduce your your potential profits, but it's about a risk management strategy. So I think one of the things I wanted to cover in in in the book, in the staking chapter, was how you would use these simulations to kind of get a handle on what your what what your probabilities were in terms of the the chances of of going bust or losing over a particular period of time or winning over a particular period of time. And and that's what I was trying to encourage people to do through this this Monte Carlo simulation method is that if if you put in your inputs about what edges you think you have and how much money you've got at your disposal, what you can expect to happen in terms of losing sequences, maximum drawdowns, how what what your kind of your median bankroll expectation would be if you were doing things like proportional Kelly staking and those sorts of concepts. And it's really to encourage people to not only get a handle of what their edge is, but also what that edge could deliver.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:24:36]:

And so you you you know the the the risks and probabilities that you're potentially facing rather than just to go into it blindly and think, well, I've got this edge, and I'm just gonna chuck money at it. It's it's to kind of get a the book was about encouraging people to just to know know their risks.

Shane Mercer [00:24:53]:

On that topic of of knowing your risks and since we're on the, Kelly criterion, you know, one of the things that that you sort of said off the top of the show is that, you know, bettors tend to be overconfident. Do you find that that plays out as well when you start looking at your edge and what you think your expected edge is?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:25:15]:

Oh, for sure. It's actually there's a I I think I I did write this in the book. I might have written an article as well, one of my last articles, Pinnacle possibly. I can't remember. The difference between winning and losing in terms of, like, expected bank growth and and so on. It's really marginal. It's really tiny, and that's quite surprising. There's a few graphs in the book there that will that really demonstrated that the difference, say, between someone who's just losing to the margin.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:25:46]:

So let's say on the point spread, you know, it's probably whatever it is. It's minus one ten, minus one ten, or minus one zero five, one zero five. Losing to the margin versus maybe an expected value of two, three, four percent. It's actually really, really small in terms of, for example, the expected number of, consecutive losses or your expected number of wins or whatever it might be, whatever stat you're looking to model, the difference between a winner and a loser or I should say an I don't mean winners in lucky winner and lucky loo unlucky loser. I mean expected winner and expected loser. It's really different. The the the difference is tiny, and it's quite surprising how diff and I think that's really worth a lesson worth learning, because it's quite humbling to to because it it shows you how a a lucky loser could easily outperform a slightly unlucky winner.

Shane Mercer [00:26:45]:

When we're talking about that difference, I I imagine we're talking about, you know, the difference of of a three percentage, you know, from from, say, a 49%, you know, bettor to a a 52, 50 three percent.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:26:59]:

Exactly. That's exactly it. And, I mean, on the over the long term, it's the difference between total disaster and potentially a successful income from it. But in terms of, you know, expected number of consecutive losses or or the size of expected drawdowns, maximum drawdowns, that sort of thing, or and the percentage time that your bankroll will be, up after a certain number of plays, there's very little difference between a winner and a loser, and it's worth knowing that.

Shane Mercer [00:27:30]:

So something else I I think, you mentioned is, how dangerous it can be to, you know, believe that that you know why something happened in a in a match, a game, whatever it might be, that that you know why. And and having the sort of, false sense of certainty that that things played out the way you knew they would play out. You know, and I I, you know, I I've been victim of this myself. You know, I thought this would happen, then it happened. And now I got it right, and I'm on top of the world. And I know what the next thing is gonna you know, the what what will happen next in either that game or the next game coming on after it or or whatever it might be. What would you what advice would you give to bettors out there to sort of keep them grounded?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:28:14]:

Well, first of all, know what it is, which is it's the illusion of causality, isn't it? It's you something happens, and you believe that you create you made it happen. I mean, I don't wanna get political here, but probably the the the master at at this, whether he knows it to be untrue or not, is, The US President.

Shane Mercer [00:28:34]:

Uh oh, here we go. Today. Yeah.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:28:36]:

I don't wanna get political, but he he he's been talking about how the markets what is it? Gone up record record record numbers. Yes. The last week. And the the narrative is he made it happen. And, of course, he's obviously not talking about the the, what happened before that, the the terrible crashes before that and so on. But the idea it's very binary thinking. It's isn't it that Tolstoy, didn't he? Wrote there was a an allegory of the I can't remember what what it was. Was it the fox and the hedgehog, possibly? I'm not sure.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:29:13]:

And it's the the the the the, the hedgehog just knows very simple things and thinks in the in binary terms. It's like x x happened and y caused it, and usually the y is the is the is the individual. I did something to make it happen, Whereas the fox thinks many things, many different things at once and sees the world in much more complicated terms, and it's more of a complex system. And so there are many, many factors that may be at play in determining what causes a particular outcome. And and a lot of it is noise and randomness and variance. And, and it's, again, it's another lesson that's worth knowing because all of gambling, whatever it might be, poker, But, certainly, casino is entirely variance, but the the skill based market, so poker and and sports, it's still nearly all variance. And the skill and the signal will only reveal itself over the long term. And it's it's well worth trying to think more like a head, to to a more like a fox.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:30:17]:

See it in as a in the world and as a complex system. And that you may bring some information to the market, and it may have some small relevance. And but it will only show itself over time. Nearly everything that happens will still be be chanced. I mean, think of a think of a soccer game. 22 players doing all sorts of things over ninety minutes. I mean, the the the the different potential histories that could play out over a ninety minute game with all of that interaction, the player interaction, the number of ball passes, and so on. I think one one of those that could have gone different, you then have an entirely different history that that plays out.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:30:53]:

And so the idea that what you saw was entirely a result of what you may have thought at the beginning or what someone else may have thought at the beginning is just complete nonsense. So I kind of try and think of it more as a almost like a a quantum mechanical system where there's just, like, nearly a potential infinite number of world histories that could that could play out. And whatever influence you can bring to that will be tiny, and it will only show itself over many, many hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands of plays.

Shane Mercer [00:31:24]:

It it it's very clear that you have a long term approach, long term outlook, to sports betting. I mean, I I would say that it's it's very common amongst people who have been doing it a while and are successful sports bettors, but a lot of people out there, average recreational bettors or people who are just sort of, trying to enter the space and learn and grow in it and become successful, it can be very sort of, I think, maybe, a challenging to grasp that that long term outlook. How did you go about getting your head around it?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:31:59]:

Well, it took a long time. It took a very long time. I mean, I I, it started with me basically just down and owing a load of data, in the mid nineties and playing with it and developing systems and spending several years trying to win and realizing that I wasn't winning as much as I thought I was gonna win. Probably, if truth be told, just be just just breaking even, which is where the idea for selling the data came from back in in the early two thousand and one that was with the football data side. That's when it started. And then and then it took another kind of several years to figure out how to properly beat the recreational books, just through the kind of the wisdom of the crowd and the and the the the line steaming philosophies, those sorts of things. And it it took years and years to work it all out. Some people would say, that's because I'm not very bright, and it should all be pretty obvious.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:32:57]:

Well, maybe they're cleverer than I am, and that's fine. But and, of course, I and I never really got to grips with the the the sharp books either. I never made an attempt, I suppose, to beat the likes of Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange partly because I didn't need to. You know, I was making an income from the advertising, so it wasn't so important to me. Whether I could have done it, could I maybe? Possibly, but I've I've I've I've been tempered over the years by seeing so much on overconfidence bias, and I wouldn't like to assume that just because I've done it for twenty years that I always be good enough to beat the Sharpe books. That's possible. It's possible I could have done it, but I I never gave it my full attempt. I mean, given my full to do it.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:33:37]:

So it's taken a long time. I mean, I've been in this now nearly thirty years. And all I could say in terms of my own betting is that I'm good enough to be the recreational, and that's it. And that's how hard it is. One in what is it? One in, I'd say I've I've written a couple of articles for Pinnacle about the what I think is the percentage of people that that can beat the sharp books. And I my view is it's not more than 1%. Certainly on the Betfair exchange, they they say that about half a percent of their customers will pay their premium charge. The one in 200 that's potentially one in 200 are good enough to make a living from it.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:34:18]:

It's more with the recreational. It's probably something like three to 5% know how to beat them. But most people, they're never gonna do it either because they don't do the work or they give up because they've just lost too much money and they just decide to to quit, which is probably better than throwing it all away. But you can if you you one day get there.

Shane Mercer [00:34:39]:

Probably probably a good idea to to, you know, call it at some point if if you're, you know, way down deep in a hole. So I I wanna ask because you're targeting the soft books specifically, and you made that very clear here. But we know what happens over time. And I think on this side of the pond over in North America, it's it's not as widely known as but at least within our community at inplayLIVE, it is something we talk about quite a bit, which is limits and, you know, getting getting banned or restricted or, you know, limited to the point where you can only place a couple of cents on a on a site. You know, and and, you know, many in our community have gone through that process. Some are sort of just beginning to learn and understand. And and it's it's it's interesting to me because, we'll we'll run into bettors who who, you know, are are joining the community. They've never experienced that before, and then they experience it for the first time.

Shane Mercer [00:35:35]:

And they get hit with the with the limits, and and they find it to be, totally unfair and unjust and, you know, they're they're completely surprised. You know, this sports book would let me lose thousands upon thousands. And then as soon as I win some of it back and and show any kind of, winning tendencies, boom, you're out. You're cut. You know, you get shown the door. How how did you sort of grapple with it over the years and and sort of come to terms with it?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:36:03]:

Probably in the same way that some of your, followers did, which was a lot of anger and throwing things at the computers. Right. And sending off emails and having a whinge at the bookmakers and getting nowhere. And over time, you just you just I've just resigned myself to this is just, you know, they they they will they limit you, then they restrict you, then they ban you. And I suppose I kind of I have to be selfish here and say it didn't matter so much to me because I I had a different form of income. My primary income as a my my professional income is the advertising. The sports betting was never that wasn't a professional income, and I certainly didn't ever pay any tax on that bit, because it wasn't what I was doing professionally. So over time, as you get restricted more and more and more, I just kind of I gave up.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:36:52]:

So what I what I do now is just all recreational. It's just all I I bet for fun and just do stupid bets on, at the likes of Betfair Exchange where I I know I can bet happily and and not be restricted even if I'm winning. To most of them, I I, yeah, I was I mean, one or two of them, I got restricted, and I was even losing. Famously, I think the lad Ladbrokes was they they famously they, yeah. They I I I I actually they they I was down. I actually was down quite a big negative. And they first of all, they took away my access to the promotions, which I thought, well, that's fine because I don't want your promotions. Never wanted them in the first place.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:37:31]:

That's absolutely fine. And then two two months later, I don't think I'd even placed another bet with him, and they just closed the account. And it's like, well, alright. I didn't they obviously decided that whether they knew my name, I I don't know. I was I think there was one. I actually lasted 17 bets. There was another one. I lasted one there.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:37:51]:

And that could be just because they knew the name. I don't know. But you kind of there are things you can do, I mean, to stay under the radar. And I know people that will do that. And, obviously, the obvious one is bet small, bet on silly markets that they think that you're you couldn't possibly be skilled in, you know, like goal scorer markets, that sort of thing. Throw them in with with doubles, trebles, accumulators Right.

Shane Mercer [00:38:18]:

Parlays.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:38:19]:

Parlays as you call them. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe have the old casino bet. That's something I wouldn't advocate doing a lot, but just kind of things to disguise what you're doing, and that will potentially, elongate the longevity of your of your of of your betting account. And I suppose in the early days, I wasn't really wise to what was going on, and I just took this approach that well, of course, they should be allowed me to bet. And and when they didn't, it's like, well, this is completely unfair. But, you know, over time, you just the more and more of them get closed, and you just I just, professionally, as it were, started to lose the will to to to bother.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:38:55]:

And so it's just for me, what I do now is just all recreational.

Shane Mercer [00:38:58]:

Yeah. You know, it it's funny because I think, you know, a a bettor can sort of go through an evolution where, you know, they they bet for fun and they bet recreationally, and they they mostly lose long term. And then they say, I want to be better at this. How do I get better? Oh, well, don't make these silly bets that are, you know, long shot parlays and things like that. Right?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:39:17]:

Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:39:18]:

And and it's like, you gotta do the straight. Keep it going. And and, you know, find an edge and bet straight's only. And and, you know, find an edge and bet straight's only. And and you do that and you find your edge and then you start to realize, wait, I'm getting limited at these books. How do I how do I maintain a longer leash at these books? I have to go make stupid bets and bet parlay.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:39:34]:

Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. I know it seems counterintuitive, but that's kind of and also probably most important as well, don't book book book on a bookmaker that's best in market. I mean, and and again, then by doing that, you're giving up some of your edge because you're you're taking in inferior price, but it's it's more likely to keep you disguised for longer doing those sorts of things. And just most importantly, just betting small and betting often, I suppose, or or and maximizing the number of books that you use, but just having a lot of small bets, which may not, in the end, deliver you an income that you you think is worthy of giving up your daytime job for. But it it might give you kinda holiday money, I suppose.

Shane Mercer [00:40:13]:

Which is something.

Shane Mercer [00:40:14]:

Which is more than what most bettors are getting out of it's out of this industry.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:40:17]:

Yeah. It's more than most. Yeah. Yeah. But I think, ultimately, if you wanna if you want a career in sports betting that's gonna pay your mortgage and your lifestyle, you have to accept that it's gonna have to be at the sharp books or the exchanges. And that means being 10 times better than the average sharp recreational bettor because you're not gonna be able to just beat them by by beating their odds because it I mean, the thing I go back to the information, the thing about the the the, the recreational books is that why would they pay you for information that they already hold? They know that their odds are not necessarily the sharpest, and they're deliberately so for the way that they structure their markets. And so when someone comes along that knows how to beat them, that's why they ban them or limit them because they they're not gonna pay you for information they already know. They know their odds are not, are beatable by the someone that has the same information.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:41:11]:

You don't get paid for holding the same information that they do, and that's why they restrict you.

Shane Mercer [00:41:17]:

I wanna pivot the conversation. You've referenced this a few times. You know, you wrote this at Pinnacle. You wrote that at Pinnacle. You write quite a bit of educational material for Pinnacle. The founder,

Joseph Buchdahl [00:41:29]:

I used to

Shane Mercer [00:41:30]:

the founder of the company that that puts this podcast on inplayLIVE, Andrew Pace, who's usually my co host here on the show, he's actually just started creating content for Pinnacle as well. And and, yeah, you you you I've came across several of your articles, on Pinnacle. You've also put out these books, over the course of your career. How would you sort of describe, betting content and how that's changed over the years?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:41:56]:

Well, certainly Pinnacle, their their mission was always to educate the bettor. I mean, it was part of their their business structure business plan, really. It's it's the more the more turnover they can get, the more sophisticated punter they can they can get into their system, the better it is for for their business model. And so it would they're they're obviously the the the complete opposite really into a reparation book, and the idea is get more people trying to play to win, is better for them. More turnover, more profit. And so it entirely makes sense for them or the likes of Pinnacle to to have, like, a a betting university or a a series of betting articles that is trying to be educational. It completely makes sense. Whereas, of course, a recreational, it's totally the opposite.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:42:40]:

I won't name the name, but there are there's a brand that would required me to remove their advertising from any page that had any any words like win or or skill. They were absolutely adamant. We do not wanna appear on those pages. I mean, that partly that is is is to do with government legislation in The UK. Okay. But a lot of it is is probably their own business model as well, whereas Pinnacle is completely the opposite. They are happy to educate because educating punters means more turnover.

Shane Mercer [00:43:11]:

I think I can have a guess at what book that might you might be referencing there. Is it is it is it mostly green on their website?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:43:18]:

I'm gonna absolutely say nothing.

Shane Mercer [00:43:21]:

Fair enough. Alright.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:43:23]:

I neither confirm nor deny.

Shane Mercer [00:43:25]:

Gotcha. Gotcha. Yeah. What what about, like, how, you know, that content so that educational content and you found your place, you know, in in sort of the, the content and sports betting content ecosystem by creating this type of of educational content. You know, but would you say that, you know, that that sort of become the norm in the space, or is it is it kind of the opposite now?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:43:51]:

What you mean in in normal as in to to become more educational?

Shane Mercer [00:43:55]:

Yeah. Just in in terms of the betting content. Like, if I'm an average sports bettor out there and I go searching for betting content, it it seems to me like I have to wade through a lot of crap before I get to something that's might actually teach me something.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:44:08]:

You know, that was one of the reasons why I wrote the books, and, hopefully, most people think they're not a lot of crap, because I read a lot of crap

Shane Mercer [00:44:15]:

You're right.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:44:15]:

In the days. And, again, I won't name names, but there was a lawful lot of crap that I just thought this is absolute junk. And to be honest, there was some one or two that they had full of systems. And I tested the systems, and they were junk. And I just thought, what what is the point of these? It's just it's well, maybe they did once work, and then I sort of got exploited away. But I think most of what I read was just anecdotal rubbish. And so that was one of the reasons why I actually tried wanted to try with the books I've done over the years to just bring a little bit more rigor to the whole thing. As with regard to your question, I suppose yeah.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:44:48]:

I it's just become become more and more and more educational, and and the direction, especially with AI as well, it's just there's gonna be more and more of of this kinda educate the the punter. There'll be more tools available to the to to the sports bettor. And so the AI is is the obvious thing you could probably know. Instead of going read a book, you can just ask the an AI to to to break stuff down that you want you wanna ask and what you want answers to. And then in obviously, ultimately, AI will potentially be completely revolutionized the forecasting industry as well to the point where will there even be any edges left to exploit?

Shane Mercer [00:45:27]:

Right. That's what I wonder. It'll get to a point where where everybody is sharp all the time.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:45:33]:

Well, it it's it's not just everybody. They're all the customers, but also the bookmakers as well. If if everything is AI driven and everyone's doing the same thing, then it's it it just becomes it it's it's a it's like a the in the Amazon that the trees are racing to the to the light, and it it just it's you end up that what what you're left with is a game of chance because everyone's doing the same thing.

Shane Mercer [00:45:59]:

Right. Yeah. On on that sort of topic of of technology tools, you know, what what advice would you give to somebody who's just sort of entering the space now and they're looking to win long term? What would what would you tell them about leveraging tools and technology, to to find an edge?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:46:22]:

Well, I'd probably say, yeah, start with AI. That'd be a really good place to start. Could start with the whatever books are out there. Certainly understand about value betting, learn about money management, and Kelly criteria. Do all of those basics, I guess. And then most importantly, expect to work really hard, harder than you would at your day job, and it's not gonna be easy. Too many people think it's a way out of my regular life. I mean, I probably thought that as well initially.

Shane Mercer [00:46:54]:

Yeah. It's I've been there.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:46:56]:

It's a way out of a regular life. It's easy because all I've gotta do is do better than the bookmaker. Well, good luck.

Shane Mercer [00:47:05]:

Great advice. I love it. Joseph, Joseph Boogdal, where can people find you? How can they connect with you? Are are you open to messages?

Joseph Buchdahl [00:47:15]:

Yeah. I'm always open. Twitter is the obvious one or that's cool. It's called x these days, isn't it?

Shane Mercer [00:47:20]:

Yep.

Joseph Buchdahl [00:47:21]:

I keep forgetting that. Just on the handle, one one two experts. So one two x p e r t is the handle. Or just through the website football-data.co.uk, you can just email me. It's a it's a good way. Just I'm I'm always willing to take a question unless if it's a stupid question, you might get a stupid answer. But, otherwise, I'm always I've always taken the education approach. I've always been willing to to give someone the time of day if they're interested.

Shane Mercer [00:47:53]:

Well, Joseph, appreciate you coming on the show. Appreciate the work, that you're doing to to educate people and and educate the masses and help create better bettors out there. Joseph, thanks so much for joining us. Alright. Well, a whole conversation there about probability, data, statistics. It only makes sense that we now turn our attention to John Wilson. Gosu joining us now for a grind on the NBA. Yes.

Shane Mercer [00:48:25]:

It is playoff time, baby. Ready to go. John, you've, been looking at NBA for a while now. You've been making a lot of successful calls, in the group, with inplayLIVE, on the live stream and in the Discord. And, now you're ready to take a look at the playoffs and kind of break things down for us. So, I guess right off the top here, as I sort of pull up what the picture of the playoffs looks like, why don't you give me a sense of of what you sort of have found, surprising and kind of what you're looking at at at least this first round, the play in games, and the first round of the playoffs?

John Wilson [00:49:05]:

Yeah. So interesting way that everything shook out, you know, with the that Warriors Clippers game that went to overtime is kinda like the first real playoff feeling game as we kinda head into the playoffs. So Warriors fell into the play in tournament there because of that loss, and the Clippers will play the Nuggets in the first round. I will say that the number I thought as soon as the Warriors fell to the plan and they're in that seventh spot, you know, with the home court, I think they're probably I think they're, like, six and a half point favorites over the Grizzlies, in that that first playing game. So you kinda have to expect them to win that game. My first reaction was, well, they're gonna draw Houston if they're the seven seed in the playoffs, and I think everybody kind of the consensus is that they're Houston's probably a little bit more fraudulent than, than some of these other teams, maybe just just the lack of the superstar on that team. Right? And then they kinda came from out of nowhere, for a lot of people, this year. So they kinda remind me of the the Mike Budenholzer Atlanta Hawks.

John Wilson [00:50:10]:

Can't remember which year exactly that was. Maybe, like, 2014, somewhere in there, before he went to the the Bucks, but that that team got the one seed in the East. I think, like, they had, like, Kyle Korver and and some guys on that team. It was just kind of a just a bunch of of glue guys together. So they kinda remind me of that. And, so I think everybody kinda wants to play them. So I went to go look at their odds, and the Warriors are, like, plus 700. They were pulling plus 600 on on some books, when those odds opened up to to win the West, which is hilarious since they're not even in the playoffs.

John Wilson [00:50:43]:

So that kinda just shows you where a lot of the money is and the liability is for the books. It's on the Lakers and the Warriors who with their the shortest odds outside of the Thunder who are clearly the best team. So that would you would expect the Thunder to have those odds. But, you know, to me, it's like, I don't believe in the Rockets, and I I think they'll probably be an underdog if they did play the the Warriors in the second round. But, again, some of that is gonna be the money and where the money is coming from, or or sorry. In the first round of the Warriors when they're playing game. But the Rockets sitting there at plus 2,500 as, as the two seed is is pretty wild, because I I do think they're a very talented team. They don't have that superstar, but, you know, nothing's for certain, in in the playoffs this year, I think, in the NBA.

John Wilson [00:51:29]:

So the that number definitely stuck out to me. So the the West is just gonna be really interesting. A lot of really good teams out there.

Shane Mercer [00:51:35]:

Yeah. Yeah. Let's, let you know, I'll just run through some of those some of those numbers quickly. So OKC, the hands down favorite in the West to win it all. And, on pinnacle right now, 1.72. So, you know, clearly a a massive favorite there. The Lakers, five point nine. So they're they're second, in in terms of odds.

Shane Mercer [00:51:54]:

And then the warriors, coming paying eight and a half to one, to to win the West. And, yeah, as you mentioned, the Rockets way down there, way down the list, like, one, two, three, four, five, six, seventh, at at 26 to one or or plus 2,500. You know? Yeah. Yeah. It it's just wild given that they're the second seed.

John Wilson [00:52:15]:

Yeah. I mean, I it's, again, it's, like, kind of it's kinda difficult to go back and recall, teams. I mean, I think the Grizzlies probably had the similar type numbers when they were the two seed, a couple years ago. So, I I can't I can't remember what those numbers were. They made it probably not this long of a shot because I do think they, you know, they had the Ja Morant effect. They have, like, you know, a superstar that team, like, better public bettors and also sharp bettors can kinda get behind, that sort of thing, whereas this rocket seem really doesn't have very many household names, or if they if they are a household name there for the wrong reason, like Dillon Brooks, and said people like that. So yeah, I mean, it's just just a really interesting some really interesting odds. You know, I think we have talked about about a month ago on the podcast about the nuggets at at plus I think, like, plus 700, plus seven fifty.

John Wilson [00:53:05]:

And, man, that ship has really gone the other way with, you know, a lot of injuries to key guys. I think Gordon was out for, like, weeks after that. Murray just can't get healthy, and then they fire their coach and their GM. So

Shane Mercer [00:53:18]:

Which is crazy to think in the middle of a playoff run.

John Wilson [00:53:21]:

It's it's it's wild. And so, you know, I've I've I've definitely got some tickets on them, and I, you know, I've with you know, you have to kind of have a little bit of faith that the best player in the world can find a way to to to make a run. But at the same time, I I sit and look at the first round odds, and I see the Clippers at plus money, against Denver. And, I mean, the Clippers have been by far the better team over the last month or so. You know, the Nuggets have played 500 basketball, and the the Clippers, I think, have won nine out of 10 to just beat the Warriors in Golden State. Ty Lou, you have to give the the coaching matchup there. And if if Kawhi Leonard is healthy ish, at least, I mean, that's that's a really good team. So the the the Clippers there at Plus Money, I I found very interesting, and I think I'll definitely be taking a little bit of that.

Shane Mercer [00:54:06]:

I I like it. And, you know, I I I wanna mention you know, mentioned Dillon Brooks, a Canadian guy. He can be a real difference maker for a team like Houston, though, despite the fact that everybody Yeah. Needs some he's built up that villain persona, you know, that that I've actually kind of come to to to like a little bit. It's kind of fun to watch, but he can make a difference on a court just just with that energy. And, he plays alongside somebody that actually has one of those things on his finger, and he's might be over my right shoulder right now. Fred VanVleet. You say what you want from the guy, but he's he's he's won a championship.

Shane Mercer [00:54:39]:

He's been there and done that. So, you know, he might not be one of the the league superstars, but he can he can get things done.

John Wilson [00:54:48]:

Yeah. I mean, the they've got they've got guys they've got a lot of a lot of really good players, and then a lot of guys that play really hard, and they play great defense. And, they definitely are annoying. And the annoying annoying is really powerful, when you have to play the same annoying person maybe seven times

Shane Mercer [00:55:08]:

Yeah.

John Wilson [00:55:08]:

In a two week period. And they they've definitely got a lot of that. So, you know, I like I said, I think if the Warriors win, the Warriors might actually be favored in that series. And, you know, it's gonna be hard not to wanna take some, take some Rockets, at plus one either.

Shane Mercer [00:55:25]:

Yeah. That that'll be interesting. And you mentioned Kawhi Leonard, another guy that that's on that same poster over my shoulder there that that won it. So, you know, when we talk about the Clippers going and playing a team like the Nuggets, and, yes, the Nuggets have also, you know, have that star talent. I mean, they probably have the best player in the league, or at least arguably the the current best player in the league even if he's not gonna win the MVP. I mean, that it's gonna go to Shea, hopefully. Fingers crossed. I'm I'm rooting for Shea over here.

Shane Mercer [00:55:48]:

I'm I'm on that side of things. But, you know, getting rid of your coach as you're going into the playoffs, you mentioned Ty Lou there. I mean, that is that is a huge advantage when it comes to an actual playoff series.

John Wilson [00:56:03]:

Oh, yeah. Yeah. The coaching is incredibly important, in basketball. And, I mean, and and Ty Lou is the kind of he he's the kind of coach. He's a great coach, and he also surrounds himself with great coaches. You know? So he's got like, they have Jeff Van Gundy on the bench. You know? Like, just, I love when coaches are not afraid to have, other accomplished guys be on their staff, you know, and not feel like they could get undermined or anything like that. So, I think there's a lot there's just depth at the coaching position, if you will, for for the Clippers, and that's, like, kind of been a hallmark as well, like, the the Kerr regime in Golden State.

John Wilson [00:56:40]:

So, I definitely like those are those the, you know, the Clippers, like, that plus money there or even getting, like, plus one and a half games, you know, if they were to go to seven and they lose in seven in Denver or something like that. I think there's a lot of value on that.

Shane Mercer [00:56:53]:

Love love that. Okay. So, anything else on the West before we move over to the East?

John Wilson [00:57:02]:

Not really. I mean, I I just it it's hard to make it's it's hard to make a case against anybody, or it's hard to make a case against the Thunder except that they're young. I think I've mismentioned this on one of our streams not that long ago, but I was I said if the if the Thunder weren't so young and hadn't been there before with the kind of season that they've had, they would be, like, minus 500 to win the West. You know? Like, they would be so because the the the season they've had from, like, a net rating standpoint and just how dominant they've been is historically great. Like, it's one of the greatest seasons of all time, and they don't really I don't I can't say that they're not getting credit for it because I think they're getting credit. They're just not getting a respect in terms of the odds that other franchises and other teams would have had with the pedigree. Right? Like, if this were the Lakers, even if they had all the same players, they didn't have, like you know, they had SGAs or superstar, but they were still improving, but it was the brand of the Lakers. They would easily be minus 300, minus 400 to win the West, I think.

Shane Mercer [00:57:58]:

Okay. Well, actually, you bring up something there that I think maybe we kind of overlooked, and I don't wanna go past it before we go to the East. But there's there's so OKC, the most dominant season, but Golden State isn't the same team that they were when they started the season. The Lakers aren't the same team that they were when they started the season. And, you know, the Nuggets perhaps going in the opposite direction, but a team that, you know, has that caliber of players on it. You're right. We're talking about guys like LeBron James and Doncic on the Lakers. Now we've got Curry playing with Jimmy Butler on the Warriors.

Shane Mercer [00:58:34]:

And and, of course, you know, Jokic can can never be overlooked. So I I just wonder, you know, are we maybe not giving those I'm thinking about the Lakers and the warriors specifically. Are we not giving them enough enough credit in this whole conversation and and how they've changed?

John Wilson [00:58:52]:

Yeah. I mean, well, I think the the odds makers certainly kind of are, you know, the I mean, the the warriors being, you know, eight to one having and not even being in the playoffs, to win the West is is certainly, you know, like, an and, evidence that they are getting that. I think that the Lakers odds were actually shorter and before they went on kind of a bad run, which the this the the run the Lakers are on right now is, I think, is a little more indicative of the team that they are rather than the two week stretch after that Luca trade, whereas kind of like an injection of life into that team where everybody's playing a lot better, harder, better defense. And I think they have a lot of defensive, shortcomings on that team that were somehow not showing themselves, and I think they've kind of come back down to earth, in that facet. So, I think there is I think there's respect being shown specifically to the Lakers and the Warriors in the betting market, maybe just because of the brands that they are. I do think, like, you know, 12 to one for Denver or 16 to one for the Clippers is probably not enough respect for those teams and the Rockets, obviously, as we discussed. But, but I just I do think that, like, I'm not gonna bet the minus odds on the Thunder because, again, I'm, you know, like, I'm not I'm not following my own advice or my own prescription here, I guess. But, you know, the unproven aspect of it is something that, will steer you away.

John Wilson [01:00:09]:

But I I just I'm just saying from an from a from a historical standpoint of how great that team is in a in the regular season, the odds are not as reflective of that as, I I think they would be if they had a different logo.

Shane Mercer [01:00:22]:

Yeah. And I I hear you there. Like, who wants to bet a team now at at, you know, minus odds to win to win on one side. Right? You want something that's gonna, you know, really sort of pay and and has, you know, some significant value behind it. Okay. So just to recap the West before we go to the East, you like the Clippers in the series against the Nuggets. You think that if it ends up being Golden State facing the Rockets that perhaps there could be some value on the Rockets. Those those are sort of your two early round looks.

Shane Mercer [01:00:57]:

Yeah. Yeah.

John Wilson [01:00:58]:

Yeah. I mean and and I think the like, is from the Rockets standpoint, I wouldn't even take them in that series. I would just rather bet the 25 to one, which will the number will actually get better if the warriors win because right now the price is baked in that there's some chance Memphis wins that game. Right? And so, like, I think the odds will actually get better, if you just wait. And so you might get, like, a plus 2,800, plus 3,000 maybe, if the Warriors win, which I think is will be crazy to have, given that, you know, they would get to play either the Lakers or the Wolves in the next round, and I think they actually match up pretty well with with those teams. So

Shane Mercer [01:01:34]:

Cool. Yeah. No. I I I like it. And, a really feisty Rockets team. It's been fun to sort of watch watch them. Okay. Let's go over to the east.

Shane Mercer [01:01:41]:

I know we had a futures on the Milwaukee Bucks. Though, you know, that that was laid several weeks ago now, a couple of months ago. Yeah. Yeah. We got one too. It was a long time ago. But but, you know, talk to me about where, you know, you're starting at from from, you know, when when it comes to this East, conference, it's perhaps been, I guess, maybe more predictable than the West.

John Wilson [01:02:06]:

Yeah. And I think the East has been predictable somehow. It feels like my entire lifetime. Yeah. You know, it's just like whatever team LeBron was on, and then there would maybe be, like, one or two other teams that were contenders, if you will. But Yeah. And it wasn't I mean, it is partly, you know, speaks to how dominant LeBron has been in his career, but also, like, just simply how weak, the Eastern Conference was in terms of, like, the number of stars that they had and and all of that that could actually carry teams. So, you know, obviously, we took a we took a Bucks bet.

John Wilson [01:02:38]:

Bucks are like you can get astronomical odds of the Bucks now. I would I don't think I'd advise at that time, you know, Lillard was healthy. The it was just it was a totally different bet. I mean, I don't even know if Lillard I I haven't followed the latest news. I think there was hope he would be back for the playoffs. I don't know that he's gonna be back for round one. I don't think that he is, at least the last that I I looked. But, yeah, I mean, it it doesn't it just feels like Cleveland has been vulnerable the last month or so.

John Wilson [01:03:07]:

They've really kind of looked like not that ultra dominant team that they'd showed early on in the season. And Boston is obviously just looming and is kind of, like I think everybody would be surprised if Boston didn't get to the finals. Right? And indicative of that is their odds are about the same to win the East as the Thunder are to win the West. But, again, the the Celtics season isn't as historically great. So, again, that kind of gives credence to what I was saying about the Thunder. But, you know, it's the the odds kind of dictate that, it's either the Cavs or the Celtics and anybody else would just be a really, really big surprise. So I it's hard kind of hard to to justify finding value. I will say I think the Pacers at 25 to one, twenty eight to one, I think you can actually get out there, is an interesting one to me because they, they play the Bucks.

John Wilson [01:03:59]:

They host the Bucks at home, so they've got the home court advantage. They get to play two familiar opponents. So both the Bucks and then the Cavs, if they play them in the next round, would be division opponents. They played them four times this season. I don't I can't remember their record exactly, but I do I do know that they played them well. I think they match up well against those teams. And I they've kind of really been playing their best basketball over the last month and a half as opposed to the Cavs who've been kinda going the other way. And then, obviously, the Bucks are injury riddled and and all of those uncertainties, with them.

John Wilson [01:04:32]:

So, the Pacers to me is a really good value bet at that 28 to one, especially if you just don't really believe in what Cleveland's doing this year, and you think there's a little bit of smoke and mirrors with them.

Shane Mercer [01:04:44]:

Okay. So, the Pacers, to win the East, you're you're sort of starting to lean that way or at least think there's some value there.

John Wilson [01:04:50]:

They definitely think there's value at, like, 25 to one. Right. Because I just think everybody would would have to agree you would rather play Cleveland in round two than Boston in round two. Right? Now you may wanna argue that Boston I think there's some issues with Jaylen Brown's health. So I've heard that, like, he was he basically needed to play up all the games left in the season within the last, like, week or two to make all NBA. I don't think he did that. But they he ever trying to have him do that, and he was having some knee issues. And he was just trying to play through it, just to meet that 65 game criteria for the for the all NBA team to get money on his contract, which is a terrible kind of incentive that the league now has for people to play, though I understand why they want that 65 game, thing.

John Wilson [01:05:36]:

You know, the players kinda did it to themselves.

Shane Mercer [01:05:38]:

Yeah. Well, I mean, with load management and everything else, we want you know, people wanna see players playing, and that was a big story line throughout the season about, you know, who was playing, who wasn't, why, who cared, who didn't, all of that. So

John Wilson [01:05:50]:

Yeah. Yeah. So I'm not sure that he's healthy, which is kind of a big deal for Boston, but I think whoever they draw in that first round, you know, maybe he can even sit a couple games, and I I don't think they should really have an issue with, you know, whether it's Orlando or Atlanta. I don't I don't think that that's really a problem. So, you know, I I just I think maybe you'd argue that you'd rather get Boston early when they're not totally healthy, but I'd say I don't know. Like, how do I know Porzingis is gonna be healthy three weeks from now? You know? Like, I'd almost rather roll the dice, and let's get, like, Porzingis to play twelve, four games, and get some miles built up on on those guys who have been kind of resting and being load managed all year. You know? Like, they're an aging team with some injury prone guys. So, I I think catching them later isn't necessarily a bad thing.

John Wilson [01:06:42]:

So I think the Pacers have actually a really good path, in the Eastern Conference for the 25 to one.

Shane Mercer [01:06:47]:

That's an interesting way of looking at it. Like, you know, the further that that Celtics team goes into the playoffs, the more wear and tear on some of these guys. Yep. Yeah.

John Wilson [01:06:56]:

Back to back hundred game seasons for for these guys who have is, you know, whether it's Porzingis or or and most recently, Brown, but, I mean, Horford is is way up there. You know, guys that have had some injury history. Yeah.

John Wilson [01:07:09]:

It's a lot of games.

John Wilson [01:07:10]:

It's a lot of basketball. It's a lot of miles. It's a lot of minutes.

Shane Mercer [01:07:12]:

And and their style in particular, it can can get very physical and can be, you know, very defensive oriented. And so, you know, you gotta wonder, is that also gonna lend itself to, you know, a little more tread?

John Wilson [01:07:30]:

Yeah. Yeah. And as far as the rest of the East goes, I just you know, maybe we'll get some good games, some good series, but I I, you know, I think it's just like I said at the top, we just we'll be surprised if it's not Boston and even more surprised if it's not Boston or Cleveland that comes out. So

John Wilson [01:07:48]:

You know, there's some of the some of those it's not as interesting as the West where, you know, like, even Memphis, I don't think they're very good, but, like, they could they could make they could make some noise. The warriors, you expect to make some noise from the plan. And then the wolves, obviously, you know, all those teams could do something, but it's like, do we really think the Pistons and the succeed are gonna shock anybody here? You know, do we really think that, like, the Heat are gonna come out of the 10 spot in the play in and knock up the you know, like, I don't I don't think anybody thinks any of that. So, probably gonna be some uninteresting series out there in the East, I would think.

Shane Mercer [01:08:22]:

Yeah. Okay. So the only thing from the East right now that you think might have some value is the Pacers to win it all.

John Wilson [01:08:31]:

Yes. I will I well, I I think I also kind of like maybe a little bit of a stab on the Pistons in the first round. I probably should probably like the, like, the plus number of games, like, the the spread on the games. I'm actually I was trying to pull that up, so I can decide. I think the Pistons can make that series frustrating for the Knicks.

Shane Mercer [01:08:49]:

Okay.

John Wilson [01:08:50]:

And I think they can get under their skin a little bit, and I think they match up kinda well with them. They've got a lot of size, which the Knicks have a lot of size. So I was just looking for, like, some odds on the plus number of games in the series. So maybe if you could get, like, a plus two and a half games or plus one and a half games, I think that's value. Because I'm looking they're, like, four they're, like, four to one, to win that series, which, you know, I don't mind a little bit of a crack on that because I think if I think they could beat the Knicks, like, you know, I think they beat the Knicks probably more time more often than that implies. But it's not something I would make, like, a a heavy bet on because it's, you know, and I wouldn't expect them to do much damage after that because then they'd play Boston or, you know, in the next round. So that's probably where I would stop backing the the Pistons is that first that first round. So I'm looking at the series spread right now, for the Pistons.

John Wilson [01:09:46]:

Yeah. You can get the Pistons plus two and a half games minus one thirty five at the time we're recording this on DraftKings. So that means, you know, Pistons to lose in six or less.

Shane Mercer [01:09:57]:

Right.

John Wilson [01:09:57]:

Or or lose in six or more. Sorry. Just to win two games. Yep. That's pretty I think that's pretty good. I think they could definitely win two games in that series, especially you're kind of implying they're gonna get three home games in that. So

Shane Mercer [01:10:09]:

yeah. Okay. I like it. Alright. So so Pistons, plus on the series, plus two and a half. A potential small stab at Pacers to win the East. On the West, again, we've got a a possible look at the rockets for a small bet, at at 28 to one or or something crazy like that, and the, the Clippers, to beat, the nuggets and and maybe a spread bet on that on that series. Is that what you're saying?

John Wilson [01:10:40]:

Yeah. If if there's I if you can get close to normal juice on the plus one and a half games for the Clippers, I would like that. And that's gonna be that's probably gonna be pretty tough. Yeah. Minus one eighty on that.

John Wilson [01:10:52]:

That's a little tough. You could probably sweeten that a little bit with some I do parlay a good amount in the in the NBA playoffs because they're the NBA is not like the NFL. It's not like the NHL. Right? Like, these these teams that are really superior in these seven game series just kind of it's just very difficult for big upsets to happen. So, like, you know, you parlay it with Boston to win their series, Cleveland to win their series, like, in, you know, Oklahoma City to win their series. And you then you just kind of you get the odds down a little bit. So, like, I don't think there's anything wrong with that. It's, you know, sounds a little sounds really square and and dumb, but it's just those teams tend to not lose in the NBA playoffs.

John Wilson [01:11:31]:

It's, like, it's very rare that the one loses to the eight. Right?

Shane Mercer [01:11:34]:

Yeah. Yeah. No. The the gap the disparity gap is a little bit bigger in the NBA than it is in some of those, some of those.

John Wilson [01:11:41]:

Less variance in the playoffs, just number of possessions and the number of games you have to play. So Yeah.

Shane Mercer [01:11:45]:

Exactly. Alright, John. Well, great stuff, man. Really appreciate you you coming on. Are we going to do something for the second round of the NBA playoffs? Can we expect you back then to maybe have a look at at what came through, what didn't, and then have it give give us another outlook?

John Wilson [01:12:00]:

Oh, yeah. For sure. I think it's I think it just only gets more interesting as things get on because then you start talking about series where you think every team actually has a chance to win, unlike some of these first round series.

John Wilson [01:12:12]:

And, hopefully, the jets have taken care of business in their first round as well on the NHL side.

Shane Mercer [01:12:17]:

Alright. Perfect. Yeah. Exactly. We're gonna have the NHL playoffs coming at us, pretty soon too. So, maybe we'll even have you back next week to to break down the first round of the NHL playoffs. What do you think?

John Wilson [01:12:26]:

Yeah. Yeah. I'll do I'll have to do do some more homework. But yeah. For sure.

Shane Mercer [01:12:30]:

Alright. Well, that's what we're doing here. We're putting John to work, giving him giving him some homework to take care of, and, I guess, we'll we'll see you back next week then, buddy.

John Wilson [01:12:37]:

Cool. Sounds good.

Shane Mercer [01:12:38]:

Alright. Well, to you and to all of the sports bettors out there tuning in from around the world till next week. Keep beating those bucks. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download, and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below. And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code BEHINDTHELINES.