Episode 76

Andrew Pace [00:00:00]:

Don't bet this, bet that is a good approach to futures where you go, oh, I wanna take the lions to win the Super Bowl. Great. K? Well, we've just shown you on the show that they have the largest handle, and they're the favorite of the public to to win. There's how many teams are in the NFL, Shane? 32 teams?

Shane Mercer [00:00:14]:

Yeah. Yeah. There are

Andrew Pace [00:00:16]:

Are we guessing, or is that the I don't even know.

Shane Mercer [00:00:18]:

There's 32 teams.

Andrew Pace [00:00:20]:

Yeah. There's 32 okay. We're not guessing. We actually know. There's 32 teams.

Shane Mercer [00:00:33]:

Hello, and welcome to another episode of Behind the Lines, the only podcast purifying the sports betting industry. Like, download, subscribe, follow us on all the socials @inplayLIVE. I'm your host, Shane Mercer. That guy over there, Andrew Pace, the founder of inplayLIVE, a community of like minded sports bettors dedicated to long term success. And on today's show, football, football, football, and more football. It's that time of year. And, pace, I don't know about you, but I am absolutely jacked for it. But I wanna start this whole conversation off on football talking about what I think many other people out there are living right now, which is fantasy football drafts.

Shane Mercer [00:01:09]:

So I've got I've got 2 fantasy football drafts tonight, pace. One with, the inplayLIVE league, another with a league, that I've been in. I think this is gonna be our 14th season, and and that league is also my highest buy in league. It's also the league that, has the most rivalry. It's the one that I care the least about the prizes and the money and the most about just winning and bragging rights. But, you know, pace, I was I was thinking about this coming into it, and and I've got those 2 leagues tonight. I've already done 2 previous drafts. I've got another one tomorrow, and I'm thinking about it all going like, man, fantasy football is fun, but it is long term, like, negative EV in a major way.

Shane Mercer [00:01:53]:

You know, when you when you think about it in terms of the amount of time invested versus the amount that you'll probably win if you do win, it's, it's pretty negative EV, but very, very positive EV from the sense of building relationships, friendships, perhaps, negative EV on friendships at points along the way. But but just a a whole lot of fun. So so, you know, I wanted to I wanted to kick things off because I know a lot of people, a lot of our audience, a lot of listeners, members out there are are just living and breathing their fantasy drafts at the moment. So so wanted to wanted to start the conversation there. Pace, how do you feel about fantasy football?

Andrew Pace [00:02:33]:

Hugely positive, EV.

Shane Mercer [00:02:35]:

Okay. Fantasy Football.

Andrew Pace [00:02:36]:

And there's a I'm not kidding. There's a there's a big reason for it, and it's actually the single reason, that Leroy at our inplayLIVE event brought up, his his sort of involvement to a level that makes him successful as a bettor with baseball.

Shane Mercer [00:02:54]:

Oh I do remember him mentioning this. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:02:56]:

So let's take professional sports betting out of the equation. Fantasy football is America's biggest expenditure. The greatest source of time theft from companies

Shane Mercer [00:03:09]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:03:10]:

Above all other things. This is not a joke. This is a fact.

Shane Mercer [00:03:14]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:03:14]:

It's a multi $100,000,000,000 expenditure to corporate America. Pretty crazy. So if you are a fantasy football player, you know, you're drafting, you're with your buddies, you're making a big deal about it, you're managing your team, you know, you see your screen time report at the end of the week, multi hour event, following in your games, you know, a lot of entertainment, a lot of fun. You could say it's plus EV from that standpoint. But if you're you know, it's taken away from your career, it's taken away from your family, your relationships, etcetera, etcetera, you could ask yourself, you know, what's the point? Like, is it fun? Yes. Is entertainment important? Yes. Is that something that you should budget time for? Absolutely. When it crosses over a certain threshold, you have to ask yourself why.

Andrew Pace [00:04:05]:

Because to your point, you're saying it's negative, EV. You do the math of your time and what the potential prize is. It's just a fucking joke.

Shane Mercer [00:04:12]:

haha

Andrew Pace [00:04:12]:

Like, it's a fucking joke. Now with that out of the way, fantasy football is the gateway to professional sports betting. And I don't mean sports betting. I mean professional sports betting. I'm sure it's a gateway to all the the square bettors out there too.

Shane Mercer [00:04:31]:

Yeah. Big time.

Andrew Pace [00:04:32]:

But you are starting to get into the game and know the players and the analytics and the data and who's on field when, why, how, and where. You start to identify patterns. Fantasy football is so plus EV because it keeps you in tune with the personnel on the field, and, it's just so, so valuable to me. I'm a terrible fantasy football player. Actually, I always make that joke about myself, but I'm a 2 time redraft, champion in my old company's office league. I'm back to back champ here, and I'm looking to looking to 3 peat, this year. But I play in, like, what you referenced there, Shane, your important league, your your league with your buddies and the highest buy in league and all that kind of stuff.

Andrew Pace [00:05:20]:

We do a 5 keeper league. And, yeah, I just I can't even like, 8 teams make the playoffs. I can't even make the playoffs. You know? Like, I'm fucking I'm fucking terrible. Right? But I'm getting reports on sleeper about players. I'm getting them while I'm betting.

Shane Mercer [00:05:36]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:05:36]:

Oh, he's out of the game. I didn't know that it wasn't even reported yet, and I got it from sleeper quicker than, I got I got it from watching the game.

Shane Mercer [00:05:44]:

As a new service, sleeper is top notch. The it's unbelievable how good they are in terms of delivering news in a in a fast and efficient way anyway. Yep. Yeah. Just wanna make that right.

Andrew Pace [00:05:56]:

But, I mean, that's kind of the whole point is, like, fantasy helps you stay in tune with the sports that you wager on. And as a pro bettor, it's a tool in my toolkit. Now it actually works both ways too because one of the things that the recreational fantasy player will do is they'll be in front of the screen. They'll see a player like Saquon Barkley go down and get injured, and they're immediately going to the waiver wire to get a claim in for Tuesday on Sunday. Yeah. Well, if you're a fantasy football player and I'm describing you right now, do you know there's a way to make money from that same moment where instead of going to the waiver wire, you're going into the sportsbooks and finding value on the next player up in some capacity, finding value on the line based on a certain player no longer being in the game, finding value on a touchdown score based on, you know, a potentially bench guy coming in for, you know, a a a starter and gonna get a whole bunch more reps. There's a window of time. It's usually a very short window of time where you can capitalize on these things.

Andrew Pace [00:07:06]:

So it actually works both ways where you go, okay. I'm going to the waiver wire right now. I know who I'm gonna pick up off the waiver wire, not based on some report that someone told me to pick up each week. I know based on what I just watched. But the flip side is instead of going to the waiver wire first, I'm going to a sports book and potentially making a plus EV bet, based on what I'm seeing on the field. So, yeah, Fantasy Football keeps you in tune with what's going on on the field, and, I think it is so plus EV. I think it's a massive tool for, for professional sports bettors. And if you're a member of inplayLIVE and you're not in a Fantasy League, I know this is airing the day before the NFL starts, join 1 just for this purpose.

Shane Mercer [00:07:51]:

Yeah. Okay. Well hey. But you might have you might have swung me back here as I was sort of juggling all these leagues. I was thinking of myself. I'm like, why am I in all these leagues? What am I doing with, you know, this is too much because I am, you know, actively betting on this already, and I'm already devoting so much of my time to this. But it was like, do I do I really need these these other fantasy leagues around me as kind of like pregame distractions, you know, and things I gotta get done before I actually get to work on the live betting. But but you might you might have sort of pulled me back in here as a as a reason to kinda keep them going.

Andrew Pace [00:08:22]:

Shane, what did you used to call yourself as a bettor when we first started behind the lines? You'd be like, he's a professional bettor and I'm this. What what what would you say?

Shane Mercer [00:08:28]:

Oh, I think I said something along the lines of, you know, I'm I'm a a recreational sports betting enthusiast or something like that.

Andrew Pace [00:08:35]:

You made up some weird term kinda like how I came up with the term sports value analyst.

Shane Mercer [00:08:40]:

Right.

Andrew Pace [00:08:44]:

You know? You you came up with some term for yourself. Well, I noticed you stopped calling yourself that a while ago, and I don't mean a little while ago. It just stopped. And the reason why it stopped is because you don't view yourself that way.

Shane Mercer [00:08:55]:

No. I I don't think I do anymore. No. No. Absolutely not. And, I I very much view myself as a as a professional sports bettor. I approach

Andrew Pace [00:09:03]:

A sports value analyst?

Shane Mercer [00:09:04]:

A sports value analyst.

Andrew Pace [00:09:06]:

Thank you.

Shane Mercer [00:09:06]:

I I I whatever you wanna call me. I I my I I really very much approach this as a business, and, and and there's an income source behind it that that, you know, is sort of the proof that's in the pudding, so to speak, that that legitimizes that business.

Andrew Pace [00:09:21]:

Okay. So I I fucking hate having multiple fantasy leagues. 2 for me is great. One one this important one and the other one the redraft, very different. You know, you get new players every year, all that kind of stuff.

Shane Mercer [00:09:31]:

Right.

Andrew Pace [00:09:32]:

But when you go above 2, the reason why I didn't like it was because I found myself cheering against my teams.

Shane Mercer [00:09:38]:

Oh, yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:09:39]:

I'm I'm like, oh, I don't know how the puzzle fits here. And there's memes about this on social media where, you know, the husband sits down with wife, for Sunday night football, and he's like, oh, we he's wearing a Dallas Cowboys jersey. He's a fan of the Dallas Cowboys, and he goes, we need them to win, but I have the other team's defense, so I need them to barely win. And then something good happens that is in line with what he says, and he puts his hands in his head. And she's like, why is this bad? And he's like, oh, I have I'm against him in my other league. And it's like, you you're cheering for weird shit. Right? So I hate that element of it. And, again, that's, like, the recreational sort of mindset with it all.

Andrew Pace [00:10:18]:

But if you're in 10 leagues, which is a lot. Right? Probably not a lot. No. Probably not a lot of people in 10 leagues. But if you're in 10 leagues, you're gonna pretty much have the rosters to cover off all of the important players in any given league. And what that does for you when you're managing it all, maybe you're not super social in all those 10 leagues, but you're so in tune with everything that's going on. You know the injuries. You know the personnel.

Andrew Pace [00:10:45]:

You know who's coming in next. You know the waiver wire and and who you know, it might be someone that you missed out on on the waiver wire. You're like, I really wanted to get him. You see him next week. He's going off. But then you transition that again to those sportsbooks, and you go, hey. I'm I'm Shane. I'm not this recreational betting enthusiast anymore.

Andrew Pace [00:11:03]:

I'm a pro bettor. I'm questioning my fantasy football. Whereas I would turn it around and say, well, you're actually accessing data in a productive and almost gamified way as opposed to just going and looking at it all. It's just a part of your leagues.

Shane Mercer [00:11:21]:

Yeah. Yeah. It's it's definitely a part of of the day to day, and it becomes so engrossed in your day to day. You know, I think I think I a part of it now too is is, like, you know, like I mentioned, I've I've got, you know, one that that's really sort of important, you know, and then maybe maybe another that'll be trying. And then some of them are really just, you know, conversation pieces when the next time I meet that group of people. You know what I mean? Whether it's former coworkers or whether it's it's family or or whoever it might be. Right? It's sort of just like, oh, yeah. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:11:47]:

How am I doing in that league again? Right? Like or what what players do we have? And and, you know, just a a point of conversation, which I guess is huge positive when you look at it from from that sense of things. Right? And sort of just building those relationships and keeping those those connections. But yeah. Anyway, everybody out there listening, I hope, I wish everybody best of luck in their fantasy seasons ahead. It's, it was sure to be filled with lots of ups and downs and all sorts of of injuries and and high moments, and I'm sure some low points as well. Pace, another big thing that people out there are doing and gearing up for, and, this is a bit of a plug for an episode that we recorded and released 2 weeks ago on survivors. There's a lot of survivor pools out there. Survivor pools have grown in popularity, I would say, big time over the last, say, 5 years or so.

Shane Mercer [00:12:34]:

You know, maybe maybe 5 to 10 years ago not hearing about it too much. You know, maybe, the odd one here and there, but now it's like, hey. I'm getting messages again from all of my different fantasy leagues. There's all these people in those leagues that all wanna send me a message. Hey. You wanna join my survivor pool? You know? And it's like, I think I've got enough going on. You know? I don't think I don't think you know? Your survivor pool sounds like fun, but the $25 buy in maybe isn't quite worth it for me. You know? It's not moving the needle.

Shane Mercer [00:12:59]:

Not moving the needle. Not not quite moving the needle. But they're hugely popular, and people out there are getting involved with them and that kind of thing. So, if anybody's interested in survivor, go back and head to that episode that we did a a couple of weeks ago. Very, fantastic, guest we had on there, talking all things survivor. But, Pace, any thoughts on survivor and whether that helps you get plugged in?

Andrew Pace [00:13:22]:

So, yeah, I think just one one point I wanna bring up there is Survivor is such a big industry now that entire businesses are based on it. We touched on that in that Survivor episode. Mhmm. But separately of that, I don't know how much we talked about different ways to enter Circa Survivor from not being in Las Vegas. Now the reason why I bring this up is because Circa Survivor is vague free. The entire pot goes back to the winning player or players. Right? Yet there's, like, an entire industry built around this no vague pool that exists. And what I'm getting at there is people are charging 150, 250, 350, even 400 plus dollars for you to get your entry in and for you to have a proxy getting your picks in so that you can be a part of Survivor.

Andrew Pace [00:14:23]:

So Circa isn't charging a VIG, but businesses have been entirely created that are multi 100,000, potentially multimillion dollar businesses. Because if you're getting, you know, 12, $14,000,000 pots at survive at Circa, and you go, okay. Let's take 25% of that pool, 50% of that pool, 75% of that pool, and people are providing services so that you can enter Circa Survivor from New York or anywhere else in the world, they're charging the big and making big money off of it, which shows you people's willing willingness to try to, you know, get rich quick. You know, buy this big lottery ticket because it's probably the most realistic lottery ticket that exists is hitting the Circus Survivor. But it's also an expensive one. It's a $1,000 ticket. Yeah. But you talk about the popularity of Survivor.

Andrew Pace [00:15:15]:

Well, there you go. Entire businesses have been built on just getting you into a pool. Right.

Shane Mercer [00:15:20]:

It's just just That's unreal to think about that that, you know, you could build a whole business around one survivor pool. That's what we're talking about here. Right? One single survivor pool with a with a very high, entry fee as you mentioned, a $1,000. And I guess if you go and you use one of these other services, they're gonna charge you something on top of that $1,000.

Andrew Pace [00:15:38]:

Yeah. Well, if you're listening to this before Friday, September what is it? Friday, September 7th, Friday, September 8th, whatever it is, you can still join the inplayLIVE survivor pool, which is also vague free. And the we do have to pay a hosting fee to the site, but that's it. So it is a vague free and the PayPal. Don't get me started on that.

Shane Mercer [00:15:59]:

I still have to send you I still have to pay you for it too.

Andrew Pace [00:16:02]:

There you go. But there's been some vague in the in the PayPal sending process. But, nonetheless, you can still join if, if it's before that date. So, anyways, is there an edge or angle there? Absolutely not. Is there an edge or angle from what we did 2 weeks ago? That's the edge or angle. Is it helping you with your betting? No. It's a we saw it on stream last year. I'm gonna call him out.

Andrew Pace [00:16:26]:

We witnessed one of our pros derail mentally on a stream because he got bounced from survivor, and we witnessed him completely abandon his betting because of his survivor pool.

Shane Mercer [00:16:39]:

Oh.

Andrew Pace [00:16:40]:

Right?

Shane Mercer [00:16:41]:

I forget this moment. I'm trying to remember who it is.

Andrew Pace [00:16:45]:

One of the biggest mistakes of any recreational bettor, I'm not referencing recreational bettor, or any sports bettor, is being tied to their fantasy team as it relates to betting, is being tied to a pregame bet as it's relating to their live wagers, is being tied to anything emotionally like fanship or any of these other things I'm describing that is causing you to not see value in real time. And one of the things I found myself doing on Saturday, I'm referencing college football right now, is I went, why am I looking at this side still? Look at the other side, Andrew. And sometimes what that lets you do is not bet the game at all or see the game differently. So I go I'm find myself swayed towards this one team. Well, what if I just completely erase that from my mind and start it over? And sometimes those biases are so deeply rooted and built inside of us. A good example of that, was I found myself wanting to bet on the Huskies on Saturday. And I remember watching the game and going, should I have this bias right now? This is a bias based on a different coaching staff, a different quarterback. The list goes on and on.

Andrew Pace [00:18:06]:

And I'm I'm like, just let let that go. Look at the other side. And that caused me more or less to not continue to bet on the Huskies in that game. There are a couple Huskies bets on our, on our tracker there. But, yeah, drop your bias, and your bias comes in so many forms. Survivor creates massive bias. It is extremely dangerous for your live betting and for everyone at inplayLIVE. And you're like, oh, Pace.

Andrew Pace [00:18:34]:

Why are you running a survivor pool? Well, I won the survivor pool last year. But let go of that bias and the way that makes things easy to do that. Like, the number one thing I would say is, let's say you do have a survivor pool with a lot riding on it, and you're like, okay. I'm so focused on this team losing or this team winning or whatever, and you're following that in. Well, if it doesn't go the way that you wanted it to go, that means you missed out on the value of that other team in real time. Whereas if as if if it goes the way that you want it to go, maybe you didn't even lose lives because you right? So, like, if you go, oh, I don't want that to happen because of survivor. But if you take that out and go, this is what's currently happening. I'm gonna capitalize right now.

Andrew Pace [00:19:26]:

Maybe it's a half line. Maybe it's a game line. Maybe it's a total. Who knows? Where you eliminate that bias, you may have won twice. And separately of that, you didn't let some sort of lottery ticket influence you.

Shane Mercer [00:19:39]:

Great. You know, that's a great point. And, you know, you could very easily in that situation, win back your your survivor entry fee, you know, and just get it all back and boom, you know, not not worry about it anymore.

Andrew Pace [00:19:52]:

Or the whole pod.

Shane Mercer [00:19:54]:

Or the or the whole pod. I mean, jeez, that that's, you know yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:19:56]:

And thats the thing. People, Shane, people people so our our survivor pool, I think, was, like, 24,000 last year, and it's gonna be way more this year.

Shane Mercer [00:20:05]:

It's Oh, alright. Alright. They will. I gotta get in. Alright.

Andrew Pace [00:20:08]:

So so if you are a sharp sports bettor, those prize pools circa as a an an anomaly. Those prize pools oftentimes, they move the needle from this lottery ticket mentality. But if you are really sharp, not you're not gonna get your buy in back by dropping your bias. You're gonna make way more than the pools payout. Right? Like, I I made I made more on Saturday than than the pool paid out last year. Right? So those are the those are the things that you have to recognize. We talk about compound interest. We talked about this last time, the 8th wonder of the world.

Andrew Pace [00:20:48]:

Right? So maybe you're like, oh, but that's not me, PACE. Well, I had a cancellation email from a dude who's super into inplayLIVE last week. He's like, my bankroll's only $700. I can't make it pay for the subscription. I'm like, oh, man. Uh-huh. You know? And that's where you're ignoring compound interest.

Shane Mercer [00:21:06]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:21:06]:

Right? You're ignoring the ability for it to grow. So stay disciplined. Keep making those sharp, smart decisions. And even if that's that survivor or fantasy or whatever it is, that pool moves the needle for you beyond, you know, what your current betting level is, your current betting level will be way better off long term if those biases don't affect you.

Shane Mercer [00:21:29]:

Yeah. Yeah. And I think the longer you stay in the survivor, like, the longer you survive, the more likely you are to be influenced by it and have that bias. Right? Because now you're getting deeper, and it's

Shane Mercer [00:21:38]:

starting to feel real that you're there. So, you know, just, be warned when you when you enter survivor, if you are somebody out there who's trying to, you know, be successful as a, you know, sports value analyst. If you're just trying to have fun in survivor, well, that's one thing. But you wanna be successful as a sports value analyst. Have fun with Survivor and just keep it as something for fun. And and, you know, don't let it influence those those live decisions. Alright. Let's get into the nitty gritty of this year's NFL season and what we're actually gonna see out there come Thursday night.

Shane Mercer [00:22:09]:

Wow. We've got the, Chiefs and the Ravens. What a what a great game to to kick things off. Very excited to see, the the reigning champs come back out. And why don't we start there? Because one of the big story lines pace out there in the betting world is the Chiefs 2 3 Pete. First chance to do it since the Patriots did it in 2,005. So that would take us into 2025, so we're talking 20 years later. And I think the current odds have the Chiefs as the favorites to win it all, at plus 500 or 6 point o.

Shane Mercer [00:22:44]:

Just to give it a little bit of perspective there. So that's the Chiefs in the top spot. We've got the 40 niners behind them at plus 600, the Ravens at plus a1000, and the Lions at plus 1200, to win it all. Interesting thing here on the Lions, they're actually receiving 9% of bets and 12% of the handle. So sort of, punching above their weight in that sense. Very quickly, what do what do you think about this sort of, picture?

Andrew Pace [00:23:17]:

You are Shane. You are talking to the wrong guy.

Shane Mercer [00:23:21]:

I figured as much. You know what I mean? We gotta

Andrew Pace [00:23:23]:

shit, man. Yeah. Like, I love it, but I hate it. Like, I a guy at my pool, I went to my pool on Sunday before the, the, USC. What was it? USC LSU game. And, it just so happened that the cast of school spirits was at the at the hot tub. Never heard of the show before, but, the the main girl, Payton, something, she was in in the hot tub. Super nice chat chatting us up, or vice versa.

Andrew Pace [00:23:48]:

I mean, let's be real. But a guy heard our conversation, comes over. He recognized me. He goes, hey, man. You're you're the betting guy. Who who do you who who do you who's your team? Who do you have to win the Super Bowl? He's all excited thinking I was gonna give him the winner. Like, I dont fucking know.

Andrew Pace [00:24:06]:

Right? Like, talking about the Chiefs and and the 3 peat. The Patriots didn't 3 peat. They went 3 of 4. Right. So the 3 peat is, like,

Andrew Pace [00:24:15]:

I know nothing about this stuff. I don't even know if it's happened before. I'm sure at some point, the Dallas Cowboys did it, but I have no fucking clue

Shane Mercer [00:24:22]:

Yeah. If it's happened before. That was the time before that. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:24:25]:

So, you know, can can the Chiefs do it? Absolutely. Is it gonna be harder and harder, you know, having the target on your back? Sure. You know? I think the Chiefs are poised to be as good as they've ever been. You know? The Lions getting a lot of hype, that makes so much sense to me. There should be hype around that team. They were fucking amazing last year, and they're young and they're they seem on the up and up. Right? You know, I I I I want I'll tell you what I want. I want this season to be competitive where, you know, it isn't just gonna be the same teams over and over, but the same teams over and over, that whole thing where you're like, pace, well, you're you're a Tom Brady fan.

Andrew Pace [00:25:06]:

That's all all all his career was, but they deserve it. Right? So, like, you know, it would it would be great to see some new teams in the Super Bowl this year, selfishly speaking. But if if it's the niners and the and the the the Chiefs, well, guess what? They deserve to be there. From a betting standpoint, we just talked about bias. Futures, there's value on futures. There's been some futures called in inplayLIVE, a whole series of them for college football, for for NFL, not necessarily Super Bowl winners, but futures create remarkable bias. Right? I like to head into every game completely fresh and clean. And for me, what that means is the lions of last year do not exist.

Andrew Pace [00:25:44]:

The lions of last week do not exist. They do not exist. There's only the lions right now. The lions from the first half of the game do not exist. There's only the second half lions right now. That is all I care about when it comes to football. It's hugely profitable for me, and I'm gonna continue with that.

Shane Mercer [00:26:07]:

Yeah. You know? And I think when people are out there but but, you know, but we saw them do this last week. How can we not take that into account?

Andrew Pace [00:26:16]:

Yeah. And I I think that I think that a lot of spreads have a lot of value for pregame sharps that that recognize those patterns. And and that can be a team getting absolutely shit kicked, you know, week 1. And then they come out week 2, and everyone's against them. And a a lot of sharp bettors will be on that big spread. They'll think that there'll be potentially 2 to even 4 points of value on that spread heading into week 2. So that that exists. And and, you know, we we you're just interviewing the wrong guy for it all.

Andrew Pace [00:26:50]:

As many of our listeners probably know.

Shane Mercer [00:26:51]:

No. They the exact I was gonna say a lot of people know that, and that's actually why I brought it up because, you know, it's a great opportunity, though, to just remind yourselves because these are the the betting story lines out there. This is kind of what's making headlines of people out there that aren't a part of our community, you know, but love but like to tune in to us. Chances are that they consume a lot of other betting news, and these are the story lines they're seeing out there. And it's kind of like you know, it's a great opportunity to just remind people like, hey. Sit back and watch the game and actually see what happens in a week to week. Right? Because there there is so much of this information out there. And when it comes to the NFL specifically, it is like information overload.

Shane Mercer [00:27:27]:

And the NFL too is also one for, narratives, story lines. We hear about the NFL script writers. You know? These are all all sorts of things that'll come up throughout the season, and and, you know, there'll be there'll be big time narratives that that'll all be sort of, you know, that that'll try to drive, you know, the people out there in one direction. And I just think it's important to kind of always, look at these things with a with a bit of, more than a grain of salt, but to just sort of sit back and say, hey. You know what? Let's just watch the game and see what happens.

Andrew Pace [00:28:00]:

Well, I think I think the betting public, you just brought up a really good point. Right? The the script thing is a narrative that supports someone else being in control of their wagers.

Shane Mercer [00:28:13]:

Mhmm.

Andrew Pace [00:28:14]:

So that narrative helps sports gamblers that lose money over the course of time to pass the blame for what happened off as if they should have won or it should have gone a different way. And we all sort of can be like, oh my god. We should have won that one. That stuff happens. I get that. But when you blame something else as if it's controlled in a manner that is the reason for why something happened to you, you are looking at life through a very challenging lens. And I think that the first step to to overcoming that is completely taking all of that out of the equation. Really good example, Sean McVay kicking that field goal last year down 10.

Shane Mercer [00:29:00]:

Yep.

Andrew Pace [00:29:00]:

So I think he was against San Francisco too. Think they were plus 7a half. They were down 10, and he kicked it with zeros on the clock. People thought that was to cover the spread, and they think it was rigged in this, that, the other. Right?

Shane Mercer [00:29:11]:

Yep. And there was the time that Holmes went down last season too.

Andrew Pace [00:29:14]:

Yeah. Yep. Have you in that game, if you are someone that said those things, have you considered the other side of that narrative? Have you considered the counterargument? Have you considered a different perspective that is not that one? And if you approach things that way, you might have actually hit the plus 7a half and not pregame, but live. Right? And there's reasons and motivations behind exactly why Sean McVay did that that are completely separate from the spread, completely separate from the spread. And what a lot of people fail to realize in that in that spot is the clock was running. Had the kicker have gotten out in there 5 seconds earlier, so they were a little slow. 5 seconds earlier, they would had a chance for an onside kick without the time running and a hail Mary to tie or win the game. Sean McVay knew that in the drive, and he tried to get into range too quick to kick as quickly as possible, and he would have done it on first down.

Andrew Pace [00:30:15]:

He needed it to happen about 8 seconds sooner to have a chance to win the game. It didn't happen that way, and by the time the kick was up in the air, the clock expired, and it was rendered pointless. But if you had that approach, all of a sudden you go, holy shit. Maybe this wasn't rigged. Maybe it wasn't to cover the spread. Now we know, Shane, we've talked about this. There is some manipulation that exists out there. But if you take out the blaming others for your losses, another really good example of this was Todd Gurley when he went down the ramp with the Rams against the Packers.

Andrew Pace [00:30:47]:

Mhmm. He kneeled. He went down and and fell on the ball after a first down, which created kneel outs. And the whole Internet went nuts because he would have covered the spread had he have ran in, and people were saying it was rigged because he didn't. But if you knew anything about football, you knew that if he ran it in, even if there are just a handful of seconds on the clock, theoretically speaking, there could be a kickback touchdown, an onside kick, and a hail Mary, and they end up losing that game. In fact, that stuff has happened before. Yeah. So when you go down and you kneel out, you eliminated your opponent's ability to to to win the game.

Andrew Pace [00:31:24]:

You you completely so Todd Gurley in that moment made one of the best plays he could have possibly done as a teammate and as a high IQ football player. He didn't do it because of a spread.

Shane Mercer [00:31:38]:

Yeah. You know, I think a lot of, bettors out there too, especially recreational sports bettors, and even just, you know, the general public often think, oh, well, how can more points not be a good thing for that team? Well, you just sort of explained it. You know? And I think a lot of, a lot of people maybe don't run through all those scenarios in their heads, and that's part of the development of going from, you know, being an average rec sports bettor, you know, to actually taking it very serious. And then you do start to understand and and sort of, see all the possible scenarios in which a bet can win or lose. And, you know, you you start to sort of understand that, oh, no. This team is is you know, would be right to to go down in this particular scenario and not score the touchdown. And and all of those sort of analytics become so much more clear, I think, over time because I think, you know, the general public out there is always gonna think, yeah, more points for team a. That has to be good for team a.

Shane Mercer [00:32:35]:

Not always the case. And and it's a it's a great reminder there. Okay. Let's talk about one other point I wanted to make too about everything you touched on there in terms of bias actually before we get to the next thing. One of the things I absolutely love about inplayLIVE is that the bets that we're making live are actually based off of very specific strategies. And I think that those strategies eliminate bias completely because it becomes very much focused around the parameters of the wager being placed and not so while while personnel obviously matters and and the teams will matter, it's all based on data and probabilities and and that sort of stuff. And so when you when you start looking at things in in that lens and you, sort of look at your betting in terms of deploying a strategy in a specific scenario, it makes it very easy to let go of all the bias, and and just trust the data.

Andrew Pace [00:33:35]:

And when you have data like that, Shane, I think that's that's powerful because you know right now take the CFL as an example. Right? So we're talking about real football in this episode, and I just brought up CFL.

Shane Mercer [00:33:46]:

I was gonna bring them up in a little bit, but anyway But but we have

Andrew Pace [00:33:49]:

a really good sample size of data from this last season. Right? And it's like our ROI for the wagers that we've called on our stream is is 17.3%. That means for every $100 that you bet, you made $17. So if you take the approach of, okay, they're making a call. It's one of the strategies that has made us money all summer long. I'm placing a $100 on this, and whether I win or lose, I have just made $17. And when you look at stuff like that, you go, jeez. I can't wait to scale.

Andrew Pace [00:34:21]:

I can't wait for that $1,000 bet where it's a $170 I just made. I can't wait for that $10,000 bet where it's 1700 that I just made. That bet loses. Right? Well, you go, no. I still just made $17, and people don't understand that.

Shane Mercer [00:34:37]:

It's a it's a hard concept to understand, especially in the moment when you've lost it. It. You know? But over over time, you do start to recognize it and you see it, and, it it becomes very, very real. And and, you know, 17% is a is a great, is excellent, but some of our NFL strats are even better than that base. I was going back and looking at some of the, some of the data from last season and thinking like, holy crap. This was 25%. This was 30%. Like Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:35:05]:

Licking my chops at the season ahead.

Andrew Pace [00:35:07]:

But that that I mean, when you have that information, it's extremely powerful. And one of the fundamental differences between, you know, college football and NFL and CFL is now we have that volume. So when you look at a 17% click where you're like, okay. $1,000 click, I'm making a $170 here, and you lose that 1,000. That next opportunity might not be till tomorrow. It might not be till next week.

Shane Mercer [00:35:29]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:35:29]:

Whereas with the NFL, it's probably gonna be in the next few minutes. And, you know, if it's Sunday night football, it might be tomorrow on Monday. And if it's if it's not if it doesn't come through on Monday and the opportunity doesn't present itself on Thursday, there's a whole whack of them coming the next Sunday. Yeah. Now take that approach with college.

Shane Mercer [00:35:48]:

Uh-huh. The volume is insane.

Andrew Pace [00:35:50]:

Where you go, okay. You know, a 1,000 a $1,000 click coming in. I'm gonna make a $170 every time I click if I'm doing the right thing. Oh, I missed that one. I missed that one. I missed that one. Oh, got it. Got it.

Andrew Pace [00:36:01]:

Got it. Got it. Got it. Missed that one. Right. The volume is freaking mental to the point where, quite honestly, I think it's the busiest slate of the year week 1 at the 4 PM Pacific, 7 PM EST slate, where I kinda looked at the menu and went, like, I don't even wanna do this right now. Like, not like, I wanna be there. I'm having fun, but I'm like, I don't want to look through all these games.

Andrew Pace [00:36:22]:

Like, can you just, like, make it 5 so I can actually process this information right now? Right? And and I guess what I'm getting at is, like, the volume is just ridiculous where, you know, if you do know what you're doing, you know, I can be a crutch for you where I'm like, oh, shit. I better go look at that game. But you might be looking at something that I'm not even looking at because of the volume that's going on. The NFL seems to be that sweet spot where it's like, you know, it's this it's this high volume box of of, hey. Here are the games. This is when they are. They're all coming in right now. It's busy.

Andrew Pace [00:36:53]:

And then the day slows down. You can start to chill a little bit more and then enjoy Sunday night football. It's it's just a great it's just it's just a great flow of things. And there's a reason we do so well, and it's just a great game. It's just a great time of year.

Shane Mercer [00:37:09]:

Look. I wanna I wanna I wanna bring up something, though, because, when we're talking about our strategies here, we do have something that we gotta get to that is going to potentially impact what we're doing and actually, you know, influence our our live band.

Andrew Pace [00:37:21]:

Are we really gonna talk about the kickoff?

Shane Mercer [00:37:23]:

Well, don't we have to? I think I I think we gotta talk about it a little bit, don't we?

Andrew Pace [00:37:28]:

We haven't talked about it on this podcast?

Shane Mercer [00:37:30]:

I don't I don't think we have. I know that, you know, when at the retreat, we absolutely talked about it. I had a great conversation with, with with, with the goose about it, and and some of our members were able to chime in. But I think for the mass audiences out there, this is this might be something that that they haven't talked about too much or heard about too much. And I I do wanna get into it at least a little bit here because, it has the potential to influence things. But before we we we get into it well, Pace, do you wanna explain the rule very quickly? And then I can kind of no. Okay. So they are now, kicking team is everybody is lining up on the 40 yard line.

Shane Mercer [00:38:07]:

Receiving team, everybody is lining up on the 20 yard line or the 30 yard line?

Andrew Pace [00:38:13]:

Shane, the I every broadcast on every freaking channel of preseason and every game Sunday is gonna explain the kickoff.

Shane Mercer [00:38:22]:

They are gonna explain it.

Andrew Pace [00:38:23]:

Let's talk about what matters from a betting standpoint.

Shane Mercer [00:38:25]:

Okay. Okay. Well, here's here's let me talk about that then a little bit. Here's how it played out in the preseason. That's important. The average starting field position, okay, improved by just over 3 yards. K? Scoring was lower than the books believed it would be with 31 out of 48 games going under. This, is in line with, with past year.

Shane Mercer [00:38:55]:

So preseason touchbacks last year or sorry. Not last season. Last season was 73%, not preseason. The whole season touchbacks, there were 73%. Over the course of the past 5 seasons, k, 63% resulted in touchbacks. In the preseason this year, only 26.9% resulted in touchbacks. So we are going to see a lot less touch backs or or fewer touch backs. At least that's what the league was hoping for, and that's how it's playing out in the preseason.

Shane Mercer [00:39:30]:

And we're seeing teams starting with an average of of 3 yards better field position.

Andrew Pace [00:39:35]:

Right. Okay. So so say what you want about the kickoff. Right? If you date back from the NFL where you look at the Super Bowl and the NFC and AFC championship, it's something like the last I don't know what the number was. It's crazy. The last however many kick kick kickoffs were touchbacks. It's a crazy statistic. It's like the last, like, 20 or something like that were were were touchbacks.

Andrew Pace [00:39:57]:

Now the progression of the kickoff was you're kicking the ball off, the receiver comes in, and it's causing injuries. So they move the kick further, move the kick further, and then all of a sudden, everyone is kicking touchbacks. And then they go, okay. Let's start the touchback at the 25 yard line instead of the 20 to encourage people to kick off, to to to to return the ball. Sorry. To to not return the ball for safety issues, on one side, and on the other side, try to kick it in, like, this sort of sweet spot where people will have to return it. Right? Well, it didn't work, and we're already seeing Sean McVay basically go, we're taking the 30 yard line all season long. So he goes, if the average kick, like you just said, 3 yards, they're projecting 4 yards for the season.

Andrew Pace [00:40:40]:

So if the average kick, touchback was the the 25 before, from a touchback, we're taking those those 5 yards. We don't care. We'll let them start at the 30. We're gonna kick touchbacks every single time. Okay? Who cares? Okay? There are more kicks being returned now. That was the goal. That's what we're seeing. Regardless of the if the numbers from preseason transfer over to regular season, that's what we're gonna see.

Andrew Pace [00:41:02]:

What matters is betting, especially on this show. So from a betting standpoint, it is significant because totals are adjusted. So if you take the average scoring from last season, which is which was historically low, if you take the average totals of week 1, which things weren't historically low, you take all the projections and people way smarter than me looking at all this kind of stuff, they're looking at 2 and a half points on average that games are handicapped higher right now. But the actual reality that they're projecting is that games will be approximately 2 points higher. So that speaks to where you say, you know, in preseason that more games went under than were projected. Now the reason for this is because whenever you have hype surrounding a team or or news or whatever the case, people are like, oh, there's gonna be so much more scoring. Square bettors bet the over. Well, just because the the hype is saying there's gonna be more scoring and the actual data proves that there's gonna be more scoring, that doesn't mean there's value on the over.

Andrew Pace [00:42:03]:

The value on the over has been inflated. Right? I've if you take week 17 or 18 of the NFL last season, and I know it's not apples to apples, and you look at the game totals and then go look at the week one lines for this week, they are so much higher. We had totals in the high twenties, low thirties, tons of totals in the thirties last year every single week by midseason, every single week because of how bad some teams were and how low scoring some games were. We had, like, a 6 nothing game last year. It's one of the best games I did my life. Right? The what the we I call it what the public hates and we love. Yeah. So from a betting standpoint, there could be more value on the under this season than last season even though we're projecting to see more points.

Andrew Pace [00:42:49]:

Right? So that's how you have to think as a sports bettor. So I'm really excited for the kickoff because of the hype that it's created with with more more potential scoring. Am I gonna get burned on some kickoffs this year? Yes. I'm gonna get burned on some kickoffs this year, but, you know, it's a part of it.

Shane Mercer [00:43:07]:

I like that you referenced McVay, though, because I think you are gonna have some coaches coming out saying, here's what we're going to do. You know? And and, you know, you can talk a lot about coach speak and and whether or not they're they're being truthful sometimes and what they're saying. I I tend to say to to believe, though, when a coach says something that they typically mean it, and it's nice to know. Right? It's great to know what what a coach's motivations are gonna be and and what their plan of attack is when it comes to a new rule like that. You know, it just makes it makes it you know, take takes takes away one less variable because, you know, hey. So and so is going to kick the touch back here, or at least that's what we think is going to happen.

Andrew Pace [00:43:43]:

Yeah. There's some things I don't like. I don't like that you have to declare for onside. I don't like that you can't just randomly do it. I hate that. I think that that's, like, an element of stupidity and excitement in football that comes up now and then that that's pretty cool to see. But, again, from a betting standpoint, like, when when people bet pregame and live for that matter, key numbers are really important. We may see I don't wanna say, like, a massive difference in key numbers, but we may see a slight reduction in value of key numbers and relating to the kickoff.

Andrew Pace [00:44:11]:

And the reason for that is because you're gonna see teams where the penalty cannot that this is a big rule. The penalty can't be enforced on the kickoff now. So where you would see this penalty will be enforced on the kickoff. Yep. What you'll see is they'll accept it now and go for 2. So they'll the the the the 2 point try will be half the distance instead of enforcing it on the kickoff, and and some coaches may be more likely to go for 2 as a result of that. That can factor into totals and key numbers, in a way that might be a little bit frustrating to some sharp bettors where they go, gosh. I thought 7 was one of those key valuable numbers that I look for, and and, you know, we're seeing less games land on 7 this season, or we're seeing less games land on 3 this season, be because of that.

Andrew Pace [00:44:57]:

So that's just something to keep an eye on. The the other one, which again is affecting the average field position, is that how often do you see a big kick return? Usually, they're punts. But if we do see a big kick return where it wasn't a touchback in previous years, where the ball gets run out of the end zone and it flies down the field, and what's the first thing that comes out of everyone's mouth? Mouth? Flag. Right? It gets and it gets brought back, and the starting field position is at, you know, the the 10, right, or the 5, because of that flag. We can still have those flags on the new kickoff rule. They're just far less likely to occur with the formation of the players being in 2 strip 2 lines, like a offensive and defensive line. They're far less likely, to to happen. So that affects the starting field position.

Andrew Pace [00:45:49]:

But, again, that's factored into the projected 29. But where that is hugely significant is, let's just say, it's 4th and goal from the one. If it's the Q1 like, let's let's say you're up 7. It's 4th and goal from the one, and there are 3 minutes left in the game. If you're a coach, you would be insanely stupid to go for that 4th down. You kick the field goal and go up 2 scores literally 100% of the time. Now if that same scenario is in the Q1, the analytics are gonna say to go for it. We're already seeing that year in, year out for, like, the last 5 years.

Andrew Pace [00:46:30]:

The progression of teams going for it on 4th down has increased significantly across the league. Think about Doug Peterson in the, the Philly special in the Super Bowl. Plays like that are are are and and people are of course, because they scored, they say the coach is brilliant, but then they show the analytics, and they're like, okay. You know, separately of them making it, it was the right decision for them to do that. Now at the one, that's a no brainer. At the 2, it's probably a no brainer. At the 3, we're starting to get a little Dan Cambly now where we go, should he, should he not? Should they kick, should they not? Harbo's kicking. You know, Harbaugh's gonna kick that, and and some coaches might, some coaches will go.

Andrew Pace [00:47:10]:

Well, this is the thing. When you fail on the 4th down conversion from the 3, the 4, the 5, There is a analytical argument that it made more sense to go even though you failed because instead of trading to the 3 to the 20 or the 25, you're now trading the 3 to the 29. Yeah. So that's where we may see more teams be aggressive on 4th and short, but longer than 1 or 2 this season. So does that lead to higher scoring? Yes or no? I don't know.

Shane Mercer [00:47:51]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:47:52]:

But that's something to really keep an eye on.

Shane Mercer [00:47:54]:

Yeah. That's a great point because it'll depend on that specific team that specific team and their conversion rate. Right? So you start thinking about teams that that can con you know, convert on that on a consistent basis versus teams that, you know, maybe can't or or shouldn't even try to do it. You know? Yeah. It'll be interesting to see.

Andrew Pace [00:48:10]:

And it's it's also worth noting with that argument. If it's if it's 4th and 3 from 13, is that different than 4th and 3 at goal? Yes. Big time. If it's 4th and 3 from the 29, is that different? Yes. Big time. It's at goal specifically that we're gonna see it more knowing that your opponent gets the ball on the 29 if you kick the field goal. Right? So if you kick the field goal, your opponent's gonna go to the 29. If you don't kick the field goal, you might get a touchdown.

Andrew Pace [00:48:42]:

If you don't get the touchdown, they're at the 3. They're right. That's the spot. That's kind

Shane Mercer [00:48:46]:

of yeah. You're you're playing that field position game at that point. Right? Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. Well, it'll be it'll be interesting and something for us to to kind of keep an eye on and watch and and sort of, very, team specific, I think, as well. And and we'll have to pull out our notepads along the way and be like, who did what? You know? And then mark it down. Anything else on the NFL that that you wanna get into? I was gonna bring up, like, you know, possible MVPs and rookies of the year, and I know you you probably are like, I don't know.

Shane Mercer [00:49:13]:

Who knows? Right? But I can I can rate I can run off a few of these things for everybody out there that that wants to pay attention to this stuff? But to be honest, I won't be placing any any wagers on this or very unlikely to. But, you know, Mahomes being the fave, favorite for MVP this year, 5.75 are his current odds. Stroud CJ Stroud coming in at second at 9 point o. Josh Allen at 10 point o. Other notables, Jared Goff and, Jalen Hertz are in the mix. And if you really wanted to get, you know, spicy on some of the stuff and go outside of a quarterback to win the MVP, which is super yeah. Yeah. Right? But I think you could probably imagine the names here, pace.

Shane Mercer [00:49:51]:

Chances are your yeah. Exactly. Right? That's who they are. You're drafting them at the top of your at the top of your fantasy drafts. Christian McCaffrey coming in the 20th spot in terms of, odds rankings. He's got, he'll pay 61 to 1 on DraftKings at the moment, and, Tyreek Hill, coming in the 23rd spot at a 100.

Andrew Pace [00:50:10]:

What what about a quarterback that you think could get it done that's in those odds range?

Shane Mercer [00:50:14]:

What do I think about?

Andrew Pace [00:50:15]:

Like someone who could be a bit of a shocker.

Shane Mercer [00:50:17]:

A bit of a shocker, I think, is Jared Goff on on Alliance space. I'm kind of, I'm I'm also sort of high on the Lions, in in the sense that this is a team that's really turned it around over the last 5 years. You've got to love their offense in terms of, you know, for Fantasy Drafting and just that, you know, the the the talent that they have in those weapons. And, yeah, Jared Goff is the kind of name that, you know, people kind of maybe scoff at a little bit like or Jared Goff, like that guy can ball. I don't know. Right? But, no, he can. And when he has the weapons around him, he he really can. And, I think he's paying something like, 23.0 or something like that over 21 right now.

Shane Mercer [00:50:54]:

So that might be somebody who's sort of outside the outside some of the top QBs.

Andrew Pace [00:50:59]:

And what are the Lions pay to win the Super Bowl?

Shane Mercer [00:51:01]:

Oh, what what were they? I had it in my notes here. Hold on.

Andrew Pace [00:51:04]:

That you said they were one of the favorites, and they had that greatest handle.

Shane Mercer [00:51:07]:

They're they're up there. They're not the biggest favorites. So it goes Chiefs, Ravens, or Chiefs 40 Niners, Ravens, then it's the Lions. The Lions are paying 15 point o. 13 point o. Okay. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:51:18]:

Guys, so here's a great takeaway from Bet Bash. For anyone betting this future shit, and, again, you you know, this is just it's just a a bit of a value looking or a value approach to this stuff. So it's don't bet this, bet that. And the whole concept is finding the market that might not be as popular as where all the handle went that's still proving the same theory. So and in some cases, is more probable than the wager that pays less. Now this may not be the best example. What was Goff's payout on MVP?

Shane Mercer [00:51:59]:

I think it's sitting at 23 to 1 depending on book.

Andrew Pace [00:52:03]:

So nearly double the Super Bowl odds if the Lions are a Super Bowl favorite come playoff time. If

Shane Mercer [00:52:12]:

Yeah. I see where you're going.

Andrew Pace [00:52:14]:

Is he in the MVP conversation? That's the question you have to ask yourself.

Andrew Pace [00:52:18]:

So this is where you could go. Don't bet them to win the Super Bowl. Don't bet them to win the NFC East. Don't bet them to win their division. Well, some of these some of these aren't the best examples, but maybe look at some of those Goff props that could be much bigger payouts that could win if he doesn't win the Super Bowl that would still prove your theory true. So a a really interesting approach to that is, you know, maybe you're looking at Caleb Williams for rookie of the year. Maybe you think there's value there for whatever reason. Well, what other lines can you look at that, that pay quite a bit more that could be just as likely, to hit? And one of the examples from Bet Bash was actually looking at Heisman winners and then looking at that same player to go 1st overall in the NFL draft.

Andrew Pace [00:53:03]:

Right? So Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence, two examples of guys that were Heisman favorites, you know, kept finishing kind of in the runner-up or kept, you know, sort of thing that end up going 1st overall. Maybe not the best examples of of high payouts, but where they actually lost the Heisman and went 1st overall. And then the the other side of that is guys that won the Heisman that weren't projected to be 1st overall picks in the NFL when they won the Heisman that went first overall. Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray. Right? So what I'm getting at there is winning the Heisman and being on the display in the big tournaments and things like that actually led their draft capital to be way higher than what their combiner skill sets actually indicated. Like, Baker Mayfield, there was talks of, like, 2nd round, late 1st round, Kyler Murray, mid 1st round, late 1st round, both went first overall. Right? So, don't bet this, bet that is a good approach to futures where you go, oh, I wanna take the Lions to win the Super Bowl. Great.

Andrew Pace [00:54:08]:

K? Well, we've just shown you on the show that they have the largest handle, and they're the favorite of the public to to win. There's how many teams are in the NFL, Shane? 32 teams?

Shane Mercer [00:54:17]:

Yeah. Yeah. There are

Andrew Pace [00:54:18]:

Are we guessing, or is that the I don't even know.

Shane Mercer [00:54:21]:

There's 32 teams. Okay. There's 32

Andrew Pace [00:54:23]:

okay. We're not guessing. We actually know. There's 32 teams. Right? So if if 10%, of the public are are on one team, right, that implies there's only 10 teams. Right? And the odds at 12 to 1 if I mean, obviously, the line should pay less than, you know, some of the other teams like Shane's, jerseys, rock and

Shane Mercer [00:54:40]:

Oh, jeez. Yeah. I know.

Andrew Pace [00:54:41]:

Right? Like, obviously, the line should play pay less than the vikings, but if every team paid the same, you know, you'd be looking at odds at 32 to 1 with no vig. Right? So don't bet this, bet that. Look at some of those other markets that that maybe pay more that are correlated to, the success of of your team and, may have more ways to win.

Shane Mercer [00:54:58]:

Yeah. Yeah. I love that one. That that's a great point there, and I think that the Lions example really, helps drive that point home because exactly that. Right? If if the Lions are going to win the Super Bowl, there's a very high chance that Jared Goff is the MVP.

Andrew Pace [00:55:12]:

Well, he's in the conversation.

Shane Mercer [00:55:14]:

Exactly. Right?

Andrew Pace [00:55:15]:

He's in the conversation, I think. I don't think that there's a high chance that that if they win the Super Bowl that he wins the MVP. We just know that he's gotta be on the list.

Shane Mercer [00:55:23]:

Exactly. Right? He's gonna move up those rankings in a significant way where maybe if you do bet a few jerseys, you could just go ahead and cash out on it at a profit later on. That that's also an approach. Okay. Pace, I know you wanna talk a little bit about college football, and I know we touched on college football a little bit already. But week 1 of the college football season in the books, it was extremely high volume over the weekend. There's the the slates were massive. But what are you looking for in college football that maybe, other people aren't sort of thinking about or or other sort of sports bettors out there, you know, maybe aren't aren't thinking about, especially with all of the hype around the NFL?

Andrew Pace [00:56:00]:

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, college football, I just had a felt like I dialed the clock back a little bit. Had, just such a great weekend, betting on college football and just a lot of fun. And, with college football versus the NFL, you have to understand that while the rules are close to the same, they're not the same. You are betting on a completely different sport. It's just not the same sport. It's it's completely and totally different.

Andrew Pace [00:56:25]:

It's different in ways that don't make sense. Give you a really good example of this. Washington Huskies on Saturday. We're playing Weber State, so I've brought up the Huskies twice now. End of the game okay. Washington's up. I don't know what the score is. 35 to 3.

Andrew Pace [00:56:42]:

It's 35 to 3. It's that's exactly what the score is. They're 35 to 3. They've got their backup quarterback in who is, like, some 5 star recruit. Apparently, he's the fastest player on the team. So he's gonna be a really exciting guy to watch next season, if he's still a husky, wherever he ends up. He's gonna be a really exciting guy to watch. They can kneel out.

Andrew Pace [00:57:07]:

Steve Belichick is over there on the sideline. So if you think about Bill Belichick and the way he, how conservative he would be at the end of an NFL game. The other guy over on the sideline there is, Pete Carroll's son. Right? There is 50 seconds left in the game. They hand the ball off for a running play instead of kneeling out up 35 to 3. They hurry to the line. They run another running play. Now the clock can run out.

Andrew Pace [00:57:40]:

They do not need to kneel. So the clock is running. They do not need to run another play.

Shane Mercer [00:57:45]:

They can run it out completely. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:57:47]:

They hurry to the line, and with 4 seconds left on the clock, they take a knee in victory formation to show that they kneeled out. Now the reason why I bring this up

Shane Mercer [00:57:59]:

Wow.

Andrew Pace [00:57:59]:

Is because they only needed to run 2 plays. They both could have been Neil Neil plays, but we watched almost every single college football coach this last weekend do something similar with the lead. We saw Rutgers at goal with the ability to be respectful and kneel out and score a touchdown. The list goes on and on because I could just run through the menu and go, these are what the coaches did at the end of games. So people ripped to shit Mario Cristobal because he didn't kneel out last year and ended up losing a game because he didn't kneel out. And it wasn't the first time he had done it. Yet across the league, it is common practice to not do this, watching the end of the Michigan game. Three run plays, one after the other.

Andrew Pace [00:58:51]:

They couldn't have lost the game. They're up too much, but coaches aren't kneeling out and being respectful. They're trying to score late even if it is just busting a run through the line. What are they teaching those players, and why this is like cramming a dunk. You're up 30 in a basketball game. The shot clock can dribble out. Everyone's walking off the court and cramming a dunk in someone's face. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:59:15]:

And what have we seen in the NBA when that happens? Massive fights breaking up.

Shane Mercer [00:59:18]:

I was gonna say big time fights can happen, and, but we have seen it, and we do see it every once in a while.

Andrew Pace [00:59:24]:

Yeah. So, like, culturally, college football is fucked up when it comes to the what coaches are doing at the end of games. Analytically, separately of the culture of it, it makes zero sense and has next to no upside with only downside. Potential injuries from players, potential loss of game, potential loss of of of job from decisions that you made, and yet it's not one person. It's across the league. So when you talk about it being the same rules, more or less, from one sport to the next, what's going on is completely different. So from a betting standpoint, you have to look at that, and you have to either completely abandon things, you have to adapt to the way the game is being played, and you have to know who is doing what from the standpoint of how they handle different scenarios. Some of those coaches would kneel out in a one score game, but because it wasn't, they didn't.

Andrew Pace [01:00:25]:

So when you have this angle of something that cannot be handicapped because of how fucking insane and random it is, there are opportunities from a betting standpoint. And, Yeah. We we cleaned up, had a lot of fun doing it. I think week 1 is really special. I made a a social media post, before week 1 saying, you know, some of the changes to the rules in college football, this season. The first helmet comms are now, in play. So coaches have 15 seconds to talk to their players, in between plays.

Shane Mercer [01:01:00]:

Right.

Andrew Pace [01:01:00]:

The second, the it's called a it's not a 2 minute warning. It's called the 2 minute time out. So that's just a factor in the grand scheme of the game. You know, they're they've added that 2 minute time out. So the clock stops at at 2 minutes for for both halves. And then, the third one, I can't even remember off the top of my head, but it was in that that social post. But I basically said with the helmet comms, don't be surprised if teams look a little rusty or sketchy. Houston was one of the best offenses in college football last year.

Andrew Pace [01:01:28]:

They scored 0 points. 0 Wow. On Saturday. Florida State has lost their first two games against bad bad teams where they were massive favorites against them, and this was the team that was undefeated last year, supposed to go to the natty, you know, all the controversy around them. They are fucking awful. But the thing is is that when it comes to an inability to handicap entirely new players, entirely new, you know, systems and things like that, teams from different divisions colliding, that have never played each other in in potentially years years, which obviously is completely new players now, it's very, very difficult. And week week 1, but definitely the 1st few weeks of college football, and we we saw that with FSU 2 weeks in a row because they're one of the only teams that's played 2 games. There is huge value on these inadequately handicapped games where, like, you don't just forget about who the favorite was pregame.

Andrew Pace [01:02:26]:

You flip on FSU last night because we're recording this on a Tuesday, and you're like, they're not the better of the 2 teams. And then, like, Boston Boston College Money Line with them up 14 was still plus money.

Shane Mercer [01:02:40]:

It it was amazing to watch that quarterback, that we were kind of ready to go to AU. Because, you know, Pace, I think you come out the stream and you sort of start dropping the hints like, hey. This guy's pretty bad. Like, he's actually really bad. And it's like, oh, is he? I don't know. I'll watch these guys. I don't know this team, you know, I'm not paying much like, you know, I'm only watching it now because I might bet on it and then to actually watch him come out and play as bad as he did and to consistently do it over and over again. And then to think to myself, wow.

Shane Mercer [01:03:08]:

These guys are the pregame favorites with that guy running the offense. It's like, how can you not start looking at the other side here?

Andrew Pace [01:03:15]:

Yeah. And the thing is with nail deals is, like, he was a big deal to go into the portal and get picked up by FSU. Like and now you have to question whether he plays anymore. Like, the guy's done. He was like there was a a Jacob Eason for the Washington Huskies was a similar story. 5 star recruit, number 1 recruit at a high school. Everyone doing everything they can possibly do to get their hands on this guy, and he just comes out. Every every time he plays, you think he may have gotten worse.

Andrew Pace [01:03:39]:

And I feel like DJ from Clemson to Oregon State to FSU is is one of those stories. But, honestly, man, Shane, college football between the volume and narrowing down volume. So whatever it is that you're looking for, we talk about we've talked about this quite a bit in the last few episodes, proving a theory. Well, find the game that fits your theory. Yeah. You you might have a 100 games in a day. You know, just don't don't panic. Don't go betting.

Andrew Pace [01:04:10]:

Find a game that's fitting a mold for you. That could be an underdog that's playing well against a favorite. It could be that simple. And go, okay. How am I going to make money from this game now? Narrow it in and then execute. And, I thought we did a great job of that on Saturday. Definitely, didn't win every bet that we placed. But I just week 0, week 1 in general, we we did a tremendous job.

Andrew Pace [01:04:31]:

We're we're off to the races with college football, and we're really excited for the rest of the season.

Shane Mercer [01:04:35]:

That's awesome. It's great to it's great to see. For someone like me, it's hard to commit to a whole Saturday. So for everybody out there who doesn't quite fall to college football, it's a it's a full day Saturday. It's it's it's, you know, 14 hours, I think.

Andrew Pace [01:04:48]:

We did 14 and a half on Saturday.

Shane Mercer [01:04:50]:

That's nuts. You know, it's, like, insane, and, it's hard for a lot of people out there to commit to to that much time, but it's it's it's it's actually really a nice sort of compliment if you want to pop in, and and sort of drop in when you can or around key slates or around key games, especially if you know the strategies. So you've you've, you know, you this is for people who are within the inplayLIVE community. If you've watched the master class, you understand the strategies, you've seen them maybe deployed a little bit in the past, you can really sort of just pick your spots throughout a day if you wanna get a little college football action and, and and get in there and and just, you know, hop on and and and deploy the strategies with the team and just, you know, let let the pros sort of help you dial in on to which games are are worth focusing on, and it's, it can be a lot of fun.

Andrew Pace [01:05:36]:

Yeah. Well said. And I think, also, it's it's worth noting you when why why we do a long day like that. So, like, you you might not be able to be on the whole day, but I was on the whole day, and I will be for, you know, most or all Saturdays. And it's it's it's it's where passion, you know, inter intersects with, fun. I I love watching college football. If I wasn't betting on them, I betting on the games, I'd probably be watching quite a few of them. It's it's it's it's exciting.

Andrew Pace [01:06:05]:

It's entertaining. So, you know, if you love sports and you love football, you're probably doing that to an extent already. And then where where the passion interjects and where you put structure around that passion is where you can, hopefully profit. And and, you know, I look back on Saturday and had a a multi five figure day, from a financial standpoint. So, you know, you those things can interject where it becomes project productive where you go, jeez. I really don't wanna miss a Saturday because, it it it is successful.

Shane Mercer [01:06:36]:

Yeah. Okay. On that note of passion, do we still have room in our hearts for the CFL now that Yeah. Now that the NFL's here, college football's here, you know, you we've talked about the CFL 17% ROI over the course of the season. Do we still have time and room for the CFL? Yes. And then we we yeah. We do. We we still got love for it.

Andrew Pace [01:07:01]:

Let's put it this way. Most of the games that in in overlap with, college or the NFL, most, not all, are on at a time where there isn't, say, 9 or 10 NFL games on. Saturday's tough. Saturday's tough. There's tons of college football games on when the CFL's on.

Shane Mercer [01:07:19]:

Yeah. That's actually tough. And I wanna mention that actually. It's very tough for the books. The books aren't keeping up with CFL when college football is on.

Andrew Pace [01:07:27]:

Yeah. Well, they might not even have the game.

Shane Mercer [01:07:28]:

They might not even offer the game. They might only offer the line for a very short amount of time and then remove it completely. So that's something if you are interested in betting in on the CFL, just know that it might be harder to find now that real football's back.

Andrew Pace [01:07:41]:

Right.

Shane Mercer [01:07:42]:

Yeah. Cool. Yep. Alright. Well, looking forward to but you're right. The the times, you know, they they tend to be, you know, Thursday night where there's only an NFL game on or Friday night, and then there's you know, the volume isn't so high. But in those high volume times, it can different. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:07:56]:

And it could be Sunday night football. You got CFL on too. It could be a nice compliment.

Shane Mercer [01:07:59]:

Yeah. Exactly. Right? So so it's a lot of fun. Well, Pence, I'm very much looking forward to riding with you throughout another, NFL season, another football season. It's very exciting times. And, hey. We'll we'll do a little, fantasy football as well. A payment coming your way shortly in USD, not in CAD.

Shane Mercer [01:08:17]:

There you go. Alright. To to you and everybody else out there, sports bettors around the world, till next week, Keep beating those bucks. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download, and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below. And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code BEHINDTHELINES.