Episode 98

Welcome [00:00:00]:

You're listening to Behind the Lines, a podcast presented by inplayLIVE and powered by Pinnacle, the number one sports book where winners play and never get limited. Go to pinnacle.com/inplaylive to sign up and get in the game.

Shane Mercer [00:00:16]:

On the day of, will they actually put their money on the line and put it against someone like Mahomes, especially if they wholeheartedly believe the conspiracy theories around the reps helping them win and all of that kind of bullshit.

GosuThune [00:00:30]:

Are you gonna bet against like, if you think something's rigged, why would you bet against it? You know what I mean?

GosuThune [00:00:37]:

I just don't understand.

Shane Mercer [00:00:52]:

Yo. Welcome in. It's Behind the Lines powered by Pinnacle, purifying the sports betting industry. I'm Shane. We've got pace, and Gosu is here too for our Super Bowl episode. We'll get to the big game and break it all down, but there's also a historic win for NFL bettors that I'll tell you a little bit about. And pace has a little story time regarding a sportsbook for us. Pace, we'll get to your story in a minute.

Shane Mercer [00:01:17]:

But, how are you guys doing? How's the last couple weeks of sports betting been going for you? Are we suffering from football withdrawal?

Andrew Pace [00:01:26]:

Well, before we get there, John is really freaking sick right now. So we need to hear his voice so people can gauge the situation, then we need to set it over under on how long his voice lasts at this level on this episode, like, if he can get through it or not. So, John, why don't you start at by answering Shane's question?

GosuThune [00:01:44]:

Yeah. I don't know. I've, I've gotten I've gotten gotten a lot better. Spent too much time in Vegas speaking in the last couple weeks of vetting. You know? And so, picked up a bad virus in the last day. And, thankfully, it was able to make it home without any any weird accidents happening, on that long flight. So that was great. But, yeah, that's been going great.

GosuThune [00:02:07]:

We've been crushing hockey, basketball. You know? It's just, it's a good time.

Andrew Pace [00:02:12]:

I hear a little grumble. I'm gonna set the over under at forty seven twenty nine. So place your bets.

Andrew Pace [00:02:18]:

Place your bets.

Shane Mercer [00:02:19]:

Place your bets.

Andrew Pace [00:02:20]:

I like that you described your flight home as nothing weird, like, no weird emergencies.

Shane Mercer [00:02:25]:

Like, you expected something weird.

GosuThune [00:02:27]:

Yeah. Like Well, you know, when you when you there's certain kind of illnesses you don't wanna get on a plane with. You know what I mean?

Andrew Pace [00:02:34]:

Well, is there a worse situation to be in than on a plane? Like, especially, like, if you're in a middle or window seat where Yeah.

GosuThune [00:02:42]:

And I'm like a window seat guy. Like, I the window is, like, where I go. I could just press myself against the wall and kind of go away from the world. You know? So, but, there's a miracle drug out there called Imodium a d. Definitely, recommend that.

Shane Mercer [00:03:03]:

I'm with you, though, John, on the on the window seat. It's a great you know, that's the spot where you could just, like, lean your head against it and just crash. Right?

GosuThune [00:03:11]:

Yeah. Yep.

Andrew Pace [00:03:14]:

I I think sports bettors, we love picking up new tips and tricks. So thanks, John, for bringing one outside of the the ring quarter of the field. We appreciate it. Anyways, Shane, betting wise, it's been spectacular. This last week for me, was obviously super low volume because I was getting my place set up, which was I gotta credit, John and Trampus and Matt for, you know, covering for me when I really was not on stream to the degree that I typically am. But, you was able to pop in, had the stream on a lot where, like, they'd be talking about something, and I'd be like, and other times where I, like, come sprinting down the stairs, like, almost crashing into a wall to get a bet in.

Andrew Pace [00:03:56]:

So but, I mean, like, it is a good lesson for people. You know, sometimes we do have these long days, and Saturdays right now are probably our long day with college basketball. NHL's running throughout the day. Obviously, NBA's on. It isn't like when college football's on where, you know, it really is pretty full on mentally for the entirety of the day. There's a lot of, like, alright, guys. Next slate's coming in in thirty minutes. Or, like, alright, guys.

Andrew Pace [00:04:21]:

We got a forty five minute break now. So, you know, it that that can kinda be like a destroyer of your day. So, like, whether it's headphones or just having the stream on in the background, don't FOMO any over any one specific call, but, like, do your thing. And if you know there's a really good opportunity, then then go dive on it. And then, obviously, plan in advance and and lock in for those busier times and know when they're coming.

Shane Mercer [00:04:44]:

Yeah. Yeah. I I actually kinda like it that way where, like, you know, for me, having the kids around and and stuff like that, it it sort of allows me to be like, okay. You know, I know I'm gonna go down to my setup, at this time. I'll be down there for, you know, ten to fifteen minutes, and then I can go about, you know, doing stuff if we wanna go for a walk or take them to the park or play outside in the snow or whatever it might be. You know? You can go do that for half an hour, forty minutes. Then, alright, go back to the spot. You know? Go make dinner.

Shane Mercer [00:05:09]:

It's a nice sort of way to just kind of you know, if you're at home and you're not going out anywhere, it's a nice sort of those breaks are are really good for just going and and doing things with family. I I find that way. Yeah. By the way too, your your your new setup at your new place is, coming along pretty nicely. It's looking good. I was, following along on social media there, and, you you got a you got a pretty cool, sort of wrap around screen going on.

Andrew Pace [00:05:34]:

Yeah. You know, I I'm I'm, I'm a total sucker for being at the will of what Costco has in the warehouse. And they had that, and it was, like, $500 off. And I was like, holy smokes. It's a match made in heaven. I actually thought it would be an amazing thing to do for a giveaway for someone in the group, and they're already gone. So

Shane Mercer [00:05:57]:

Oh, well, too bad. Otherwise, the setup and the new place coming along nicely?

Andrew Pace [00:06:02]:

Yeah. It's all I mean, I'm I'm home, and it's all set up and ready for, an actual vacation once the once it's not, you know, minus 10 Celsius. So yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:06:13]:

Cool. Cool. Cool. Alright. Let's, let's move things along in pace. You've got something you wanna share regarding a sports book, a sports book you've been dealing with for for a little while now.

Andrew Pace [00:06:23]:

Yeah. Yeah. So I kinda have a it's actually, believe it or not, a positive story. You never know where these are are gonna go. But, anyways, similar to my last story, you know, scouring the the Internet for for new sportsbooks, and I came across, Weiss, w e I s s. Sometimes the s's are dollar signs. And Of course they are. You know, played there.

Andrew Pace [00:06:48]:

I actually lost there, as I do advise people to do to an extent. And they set me up with a a VIP host, and she was really diligent, like, messaging me. And, like, she'd have her promos that she'd message me, but at the same time, there'd actually be some sincerity behind some of the messages outside of the copy pasted promo messages. And just as an example, like, on my birthday, this gave me a thousand bucks USDC, which is, like or USDT, which is just, like that's just a nice thing to do for players. I've had people where they just throw money in your account, and then they make you roll it over. And there's all these contingencies associated with it, and it it hasn't worked out very well for me. They gave me like, I could've withdrawn the thousand bucks that day. So, yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:07:35]:

Anyways, really good experience from that standpoint. Now, I loved the site. Really, really, really user friendly, worked out kinda exactly how I wanted to after some losses and and proceeded to to get my account balance, you know, north of $70,000.

Shane Mercer [00:07:53]:

Wow. Nice.

Andrew Pace [00:07:54]:

This is when I started to have, limits applied to me. Right? And that's where whenever you're using a site that maybe you haven't used before, things can get a little bit like there can be some anxiousness. Like Sure. Am I get are they gonna pay me? All that kind of stuff. Ironically, it's the same was the same odds provider as the story the the horror story that I told, you know, a few episodes back.

Shane Mercer [00:08:18]:

So Right.

Andrew Pace [00:08:18]:

That that creates a little bit more, I guess, stress and anxiety. But they had really good reviews online, which is why I engaged with them in the first place. So that gave me the confidence to go forward. Anyways, when it came time for withdraw, obviously, I had to do verification. The verification was quick and simple. I would say almost every document that I sent in, they had approved or asked for an adjustment within, like, five to fifteen minutes, which, again, with some of these books, it can be really, really shady and sketchy. So I get it all done, put my withdraw through. It's pending for a little while.

Andrew Pace [00:08:57]:

Obviously, that's that's frustrating, but then they said your VIP host can help you out. So this one I found out the max withdraw per week is €4,000. That doesn't bother me.

Shane Mercer [00:09:09]:

Yeah I think that that's that's better than a lot of other sites you've dealt with.

Andrew Pace [00:09:12]:

No big deal. But they they say, your withdrawal is being processed. Rest assured, it's there's no issues on our end at all. It's gonna it's gonna go through. In addition, we have an interesting offer. We wanna introduce you to, basically, some high up at the sports book. He's going to reach out to you or you can reach out to him. Here's your contact.

Andrew Pace [00:09:37]:

I'm like, oh, okay. Cool. So I I fire him a note, just to see what's going on, and this is where I gotta give this sports book credit. He informs me that they have been watching my account. I can continue to play there, and they've used my betting to help sharpen their lines.

Shane Mercer [00:09:59]:

No way. Woah. They're adopting a little Sharpe book model.

Andrew Pace [00:10:03]:

They're not, though. They're not. But the approach was brilliant. It wasn't, we know who you are. It wasn't get the hell out of here. We're not paying you. We're making it difficult to pay you. It was, hey, man.

Andrew Pace [00:10:16]:

We're paying you, and we wanna thank you. We're gonna let you keep playing because you've already identified inefficiencies at our sportsbook.

Shane Mercer [00:10:25]:

Right.

Andrew Pace [00:10:26]:

And I that's why, Shane, when I was saying I might have a story for you guys, I gotta give a book think about the episode with Power Play and all the other stories we have. I gotta give this book credit for taking that approach with me or with anyone else.

Shane Mercer [00:10:41]:

Yeah. Yeah. I wonder how many other people they've they've done that with, you know, the how many other winners they've they've had to deal with and and sort of have treated that way. That's, that that's pretty, remarkable, especially from, you know, I'll I'll call it a lesser known book, you know, a a a smaller book, that that is, taking that approach. So you can still play there, but I'm assuming you've got some kind of limits.

Andrew Pace [00:11:04]:

I've got some limits, but, honestly, they're so reasonable.

Shane Mercer [00:11:08]:

Okay. And so is a book that you could keep using?

Andrew Pace [00:11:12]:

So my situation leading up to Kelowna, because I never placed a wager on them in the last week, was that I could still do two $1,000 spins per game.

Shane Mercer [00:11:24]:

Okay. So you can get $2,000 on a game.

Andrew Pace [00:11:26]:

US USD as well. So totally totally reasonable. Anyways, the other reason I actually wanted to bring these guys up relates to the episode when we were talking about how valuable Pinnacle is as a sportsbook.

Shane Mercer [00:11:40]:

Right. It was a couple episodes ago. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:11:43]:

Yeah. We were talking about moving money from your shady sportsbook over to Pinnacle. So the reason why I bring this up is because I looked into their bonuses at Weis here. You can get $2,000 US dollar USDT is is how they match you, bonuses at Weiss. And the way their bonus structure works is you have to roll it over 45 x, which, John, I know you will forty forty five x is not it's not good.

Shane Mercer [00:12:23]:

Not good. It's pretty significant.

Andrew Pace [00:12:24]:

You know it can get a lot worse than that.

GosuThune [00:12:26]:

And it can. Right? It could get a lot worse.

Andrew Pace [00:12:30]:

It'll be you know, Phil at Jazz Sports will be like, you know, we're giving you $10. You gotta roll it over a hundred x. It's like, okay. Sweet.

Andrew Pace [00:12:36]:

But, anyways, the reason why I bring that up is because if we rewind the tape back to the pinnacle episode and you go over to a sports book like Weese that's giving you this insane bonus, $2,000, you gotta roll it over you gotta roll roll it over with $90,000 of of play. Don't roll it over. Just lose it. Lose it all over the pinnacle. It's it isn't a free bet. They put the cash in your account. You can't withdraw, but you can lose it. Right? So sometimes I look at this kind of stuff and I go, if I wake up this morning and I have this $2,000 USDT, bonus.

Andrew Pace [00:13:18]:

Right? Obviously, in this in this case, you have to deposit $2,000. Right? So Right. Whatever the amount is. It could be Okay. 500 free dollars, whatever you're comfortable with. And I wake up in the morning, and I go, I just made $2. Now I have to execute. So this has nothing to do with plus EV bets.

Andrew Pace [00:13:33]:

This strictly has to do with moving money from one book to another and then getting it out of the other book. Right? So I just made $2,000 as soon as I entered this code. I now need to move that money over to Pinnacle, and then I'm gonna withdraw it from Pinnacle. Pinnacle gets the fee in the VIG. Using their arbitrage calculator, you can quickly do the math of the odds of how you're gonna move it over, whether it's the parlay example I gave. John, I know maybe you can advise sometimes you'll find ARBs, things like that. I personally have been doing really, really well doing it with finding, like, a over five and a half goals in hockey, under six goals in hockey. Okay.

Andrew Pace [00:14:13]:

I did a I did a Chiefs plus nine and a half, Texans minus nine. That safety was a dream for me, where I landed on nine. Like, I've done some stuff like that to move the money over. And as soon as you hit, like, a flat number, which, like, hockey's a really good example because it isn't like it's a basketball going in a hoop where you were sitting on the middle for a millisecond before the next point was scored. It's hockey. Another goal needs to go in the net. Right? That's not as easy as it sounds. So, yeah, great spot is those those flat numbers in in hockey.

Andrew Pace [00:14:50]:

Anyways, when you when you then move the money over, yes, you lose the money at the one sportsbook. They win. You could or I moved my money over and got it out and turned all that bonus money into cash. My rollovers cleared. I win. Right? So you could be like, oh, well, Pinnacle loses. Right? But they're they're so much focused on volume. They want that action.

Andrew Pace [00:15:15]:

It balances their line, and they're the one getting the vig of the action that you put through them. So they win. If if anyone disagrees with me, I'd love to hear it, but that's a win win win in my opinion. So, anyways, I wanted to make sure I provided it, because of Super Bowl, week, they have the promo code Super Bowl. And that's the least that I can do for them is tell people, go over, play there. This is how they treated me. That's the kind of thing I'm looking for in this industry. We start bet.

Andrew Pace [00:15:44]:

Wanna make sure I get that right. And and use promo code Super Bowl, and you get this sick bonus. Play it through if you want or just go lose it. And if you lose it, they're gonna have another bonus for you right away. That's the thing about sites like this. And and then when you move the money over and and cash it out, you're it's an infinite money glitch. You just keep printing money. Now the the downside, like, what's the potential risk? I should bring that up.

Andrew Pace [00:16:09]:

It's if you keep winning the money over to the other side. But as John says, you either roll it or you lose it.

Shane Mercer [00:16:14]:

You either roll it or lose it. Yeah. Exactly. And, you know, it sounds like, for for what we're doing at inplayLIVE, that it's a pretty valuable book. Like, you were able to take significant advantage of it.

Andrew Pace [00:16:26]:

Yeah. I mean, anytime I get a balance to 70,000, I mean, that's pretty awesome.

Shane Mercer [00:16:30]:

Yeah. You do it. You were you betting hockey, college hoops, football, all of the above?

Andrew Pace [00:16:35]:

Everything.

Shane Mercer [00:16:36]:

Everything over there. Okay.

Andrew Pace [00:16:37]:

Yeah. I've been I've been playing with them basically from from, November to to February to the January.

Shane Mercer [00:16:45]:

Okay. Wow. Alright. So so you sort of hit that hit them up for everything, or on on every sport.

GosuThune [00:16:50]:

Yep. Awesome. We'll say don't don't think available in The United States. So if you're in The United States, maybe one day, we'll we'll get it.

Andrew Pace [00:16:59]:

But John's smiling over there. He was John was signing up.

Shane Mercer [00:17:04]:

Yeah. He was typing away. He's like, oh,

GosuThune [00:17:06]:

I'm like, well, I went to the website as you said it, and I was like, oh, I've been here before. So it's not something there.

Shane Mercer [00:17:11]:

So it's not available in The US.

Andrew Pace [00:17:13]:

Yeah. Well, John, you know those lines because you've been playing you've been playing elsewhere on these lines. But yeah. Yeah. Any anyways, I I thought they deserved a shout out, two 100% match bonus up to $2,000 if you enter code Super Bowl, 45 x roll. But roll it or lose it.

Shane Mercer [00:17:31]:

Right. Yeah. Love it. Yeah. Losing it over to Pinnacle sounds sounds great because then, yeah, you can easily take your money out of Pinnacle pretty quickly if you want.

Andrew Pace [00:17:38]:

Well, I've been I've been losing money over to I ran into Dallas, helped me in with this with my setup in Colonial. He's like, how'd you get your Pinnacle balance so high? I'm like, I've been losing money and do it like crazy from all these shady ass sportsbooks I'm using.

Shane Mercer [00:17:53]:

It's a great way to do it. I mean, hey. You know? Get get it up over there. Why not? And then,

Shane Mercer [00:17:58]:

yeah, you can pull the money out. No problem. No issues. It's it's great that way. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:18:02]:

Cool. And you're right. Pinnacle doesn't lose. I was having a a a conversation with the former sports book director over at, Circa. This guy met Metcalfe. You guys can look forward to that interview next week. Fantastic guy. Really interesting conversation.

Shane Mercer [00:18:15]:

So so stay tuned for that interview next week. But, he was sort of just saying, like, you know, if you're working at a sports book, you're a trader at a sports book, you know, you're operating a book, you want action on both sides. You wanna have it where you have nice balance on both sides, and that's exactly what Pinnacle's getting when when you do something like that. So, they're they're absolutely, benefiting from it. %.

Andrew Pace [00:18:35]:

Yeah. And and, like, to that note, I have that system running with three sportsbooks right now where now now when we get into the equation of, like, plus EV betting and the stuff we do within PlayLive, so I would say that what I just said with those bonuses, especially if you have a sportsbook that keeps giving them and you keep losing to that sport in that sportsbook, you are basically printing money to an extent. You're getting you know, if you're getting 4 figure bonuses and you are successfully moving it over, yes, it costs you hundreds of dollars to move it over. But that's bonus money That that that is eating up those fees and costs. It's not your money that's being eaten eaten up. You're not getting limited. So now take that one step further, right, where you're using these shady sportsbooks or whatever sportsbook. I shouldn't even say shady sportsbook.

Andrew Pace [00:19:30]:

Where you're losing through them and you just keep losing. So, like, my I I'm in a situation right now as John knows. I keep my balance between about 3 and 10 thousand dollars. When it hits about 10, I start moving a little bit to Pinnacle, and then try to get back down to 3. And I'm constantly going all in on this book. As soon as I go all in, they give me a 500% bonus to deposit again. And then but they they won't pay me, but they won't limit me.

Shane Mercer [00:19:58]:

So they you just keep losing it over.

Andrew Pace [00:20:00]:

Yeah. So I have a pending withdraw from, I think, from December 1 of $500. That was when my balance hit 25,000 US. So I'm like, they're not paying me, but I'm not creating a fuss about this. The last ones I created a fuss about the last two I created a fuss about, they suspended and locked my account, and I lost all my money. Like, I've lost I've had over $60,000 stolen this football season. I'm no I'm no longer fussing. I'm actually using them more.

Andrew Pace [00:20:30]:

I just keep keep my balances low and keep losing it back over to Pinnacle, and it's working just magically.

Shane Mercer [00:20:37]:

Wow. Yeah. Nice hack there. Love it. Yeah. Yeah. Great.

GosuThune [00:20:41]:

Like, I know I just wanna add, like, on the we were talking about, you know, potentially arbing or or or whatever and, like, how you do the money. It's I would always my my philosophy on this is basically, if I know the book will pay me and my issue is rollover, I will always just try to find an arb because I'll either lose all my money out of there to the other book while making a little bit of, you know, pennies here and there, or I'll play through my rollover and then I can withdraw the money that way. Whereas these books that just simply will not pay, you definitely want to try to intentionally lose on that on that site. Right? Like, arbing doesn't do you any good because even if you played through your rollover, you're not gonna get that money anyway.

Shane Mercer [00:21:19]:

Right. Yeah. Right.

Andrew Pace [00:21:20]:

And I I think to that note that John just brought up, like, don't fixate on finding an arb. Find something that's reasonable. That's what I would say. Yeah. An an example, like, when the Rams played the Eagles a couple weeks back now, in the playoffs there, I I ended up having minus six and a half plus seven, money line plus seven. And the way that all shook out for me was really cheap to do, and then I hit I wanted the I wanted the money line and the plus to come through. If it landed on seven, I didn't move money, but I made a bunch of money. And when that happens, you you further pay for a lot of fees.

Andrew Pace [00:22:00]:

It didn't land on seven. They missed that PAT, and then it landed on six. But that allowed, John to cover, I think, his plus six and a half. So that was a good thing.

Andrew Pace [00:22:10]:

good thing. But, anyways, my my point is is that when you do something like that, when you structure it sort of that way, especially if you go, like, money line plus and you've covered it all off, you know that the balance at Pinnacle isn't gonna be decimated because you took, like, a minus 400 money line as one of the bets. You have to lay a lot of juice to do that. If they lose, you get smoked, but I had the plus there as well. So in this example, they covered the spread and got the money on, so I moved a ton of money out of out of the book in that case. But had they have lost, I wouldn't have moved the money over that I wanted to, but I still would have kept the balance because of the plus side. So just factor that into the decisions that you're making. It is tricky.

Andrew Pace [00:22:55]:

I have gone on some runs where I'm like, fuck. Like, Pinnacle's going down and this other book's going up, which is precisely what you don't want to happen. But if you stick with it and you're doing the right things, especially those parlay examples I gave a few weeks back, it will move over to Pinnacle.

Shane Mercer [00:23:12]:

Cool. Love it. Well, actionable advice out there for anybody who's struggling to to get money out of a out of a shady book that doesn't wanna pay, which, you know, a lot of a lot of our members have to deal with from time to time. So, definitely, great advice there. Alright. Moving on. John, you were saying that you just got back from Vegas. Were you in Vegas in December by chance, or was it all just January?

GosuThune [00:23:35]:

I was. I was in just I was in Vegas, like, the week before the weekend before Christmas. Like, the weekend of the that army navy game.

GosuThune [00:23:43]:

I was in Vegas.

Shane Mercer [00:23:44]:

Alright. So you could be among this group of bettors who, have sort of accomplished a bit of a historic feat. So football bettors in Nevada beat the sportsbooks out of $2,100,000 in the month of December. I it doesn't sound like a lot of money when you when you sort of add it all up and all the sports bettors out there are football bettors in in the state. You know, but this is the first time that books in Nevada took a loss during the NFL regular season, in the past twelve years. Took twelve twelve years straight. They never had a losing month when it came to football. It happened in December in the state of Nevada.

Shane Mercer [00:24:30]:

So most of that, obviously, likely in Vegas. This was an ESPN article that that came out over the weekend that I saw, and I was like, wow. Has it really been that long since since people have been able to beat, Vegas in, in football? But it it says football, so I'm assuming this is NFL and college. Yeah. In fact, it it is. So, it's the it's only the thirteenth time, that the books have had a losing month on football and the first time since November 2012. Isn't that wild? Unbelievable. And, John, you you would have been among that group, out there betting, betting on football.

Shane Mercer [00:25:09]:

I'm assuming then you you were able to to collect a few wins in the month of December.

GosuThune [00:25:14]:

I think I did. I think December was pretty good. I mean, this the well, you know, like, the I think we've mentioned a couple of times in this podcast, like, this is this is kind of an unprecedented year for public success on, you know, this on the spread and totals and all that kind of stuff like those main markets. So, they're not really not really a surprise there for me, with with any of that. I think the, you know, the books have been hurting this year. I think I've seen the the, those market projections or the the investor calls haven't gone very well for the Draft Kings and the FanDuels of the world this year either since, in the since this football season. So

Shane Mercer [00:25:49]:

Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. I just just just gotta, like, give you the stats on that. So, favorites in the month of December won 76.7% of the games outright. It's the highest winning percentage for the month since 02/2005 for the month of December. So just to just to give you a sense of how historic this this, favorites and and public betting, is right now. It's just an unbelievable, year for it.

Shane Mercer [00:26:18]:

Now, you know, as they say, the house always wins. Well, sportsbooks in Nevada did win a net $15,000,000 that month. They did it mostly off of basketball. So, you know, people gave it people gave it a lot a lot back, Bettegon Bettegon hoops, in the month there. But, I just thought it was a, you know, interesting little piece as we head into the Super Bowl and and after the Super Bowl and capping off this this historic season of of favorites and the public winning. So with that in mind, John, who is the public on for the Super Bowl? I I feel like it's probably the Eagles since there's all this hate against the Chiefs. But in that same conversation that I referenced earlier with this guy, Matt Metcalfe, he was saying that the sportsbooks he thinks and he's not behind the counter at the moment, so he's not a % sure, but he thinks that the books are are need the Eagles to come through, that a lot of the public is is probably on the Chiefs. What what are you seeing out there?

GosuThune [00:27:17]:

So I would just cite numbers from Action Network is where I'd take mine. I mean, they they use a a different database behind the scenes for the for their numbers, but the the you know, 30% of the tickets, are on the are on the Chiefs, and that's on the spread. It's closer to $50.50 on the money line. Of course, obviously, the the Eagles pay better on that side, so that would mean more liability on a payout for the for the books on the money line there. So the books as far as single tickets on the this game specifically, the books are definitely exposed on that Eagles side. You can actually see that. I think Pinnacle actually moved the line to minus one flat, this morning or sometime last night, I believe. So, you know, typically, those are the Pinnacle Circos and the market setters.

GosuThune [00:28:02]:

Right? So they're they're gonna be the ones that are the the first to give way, when they just are probably expecting resistance on that chief side at some point, and they're just not getting it. So I think the public and, honestly, a lot of the sharp bettors or people who it's particularly people who like to model and bet based off specifically on models. A lot of them have the Eagles favored even if it's just by a point, in this game. So, it's you know, when the public and the and the sharp bettors align, it's it can and the and the books seem to be set, on this line. You know, it can really mean that there's a liability. So I do think the liability is really gonna be the Eagles. I really don't think I mean, I'm I know there's obviously gonna be a lot of Chiefs futures money or ticket volume from over the summer and stuff. Right? But the thing with that is that unlike a couple of the past seasons, they I don't think they ever got any longer than, like, plus 600 or something to win the Super Bowl because they've always had the best record in the league.

GosuThune [00:29:03]:

Right? Right. So, like, it's not like years past where you they might have dropped a couple games earlier, just looked bad, and they got to, like, plus a thousand or plus 1,200 or something. So even if they were to win and there were a lot of tickets, it's not like a massive payout where, you know, the commanders were a 50 to one going into the season. Like, if the commanders were in this game and, you know, even if there's there's a fraction of the tickets on those as there were on the Chiefs, like, that would be a massive problem for the books. Right? Because that would just be the unexpected money that they would have to pay out when they thought it was just they're collecting people are lighting money on fire. Right. So, from from my standpoint, what I see is I think the books are really gonna need the Chiefs because I don't know about you, but, like, whenever I talked especially when I was in Vegas, I talked to anybody. Everybody was like, oh, I'm a bet I'm betting the Eagles.

GosuThune [00:29:51]:

I'm tired of this Chiefs team. They're gonna lose, like, blah blah blah. And I almost everybody I talked to is it that it hasn't already bet it because we know most people don't bet until, like, the ten minutes before a game. Sure. Right? Yeah. Those people are all telling me they're gonna bet the Eagles. Now whether they chicken out at the last second or, like, I can't bet against Mahomes and they just don't do it, I don't know. But I I really doubt that a lot of those people are just gonna flip to the other side and actually bet the Chiefs.

GosuThune [00:30:20]:

So, I think the books are kinda just making a stand on this line. And I know this this is kinda what I make the line too, and I know I mentioned that in our group chat that we that we had a couple weeks ago, about this. I think I before the last round, I made it about Chiefs minus two, two and a half. I've since moved it to about about one, one and a half. So I think the books are right on this one. I'm just I mean, off from the rest of the Sharpe community on this, but, I think it's a good line. And, I don't blame them for for putting a line in the sand and just saying, if Mahomes loses, take my money. You know?

Shane Mercer [00:30:54]:

Yeah. Yeah. Well, it it's interesting, because I do think that, you know, we're see well, we are absolutely seeing that sentiment out there, that anti Chiefs, anti Mahomes, you know, the refs call everything in their favor. We're we're sort of just seeing that that play out and that kind of, that that sort of, emotion towards the Chiefs, is pretty strong and and that, you know, that that anti Chiefs emotion is very strong. Whereas I don't know that there's a lot of, pro Eagles emotion necessarily, maybe from some of, the members in IPL. But but outside of IPL, I don't know that it's that it's that strong, unless unless you're an Eagles fan. And so, yeah, it'll be interesting to see sort of what happens the day of and where that money does end up going. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:31:44]:

John, I I think you're you might be on to something there thinking that, you know, people are saying they're gonna bet the Eagles, but on the day of, will they actually put their money on the line and put it against someone like Mahomes, especially if they wholeheartedly believe the conspiracy theories around the reps helping them win and all of that kind of bullshit.

GosuThune [00:32:03]:

Are you gonna bet against, like, if you think something's rigged, why would you bet against it? You know?

GosuThune [00:32:10]:

I just don't understand. Like

Shane Mercer [00:32:13]:

Right? I I don't get it either, but people do. And then it's like,

Andrew Pace [00:32:24]:

of you guys that are out there talking all this shit about the NFL being rigged, I don't even disagree with you, but put your money on them then. Yeah. Right about it.

GosuThune [00:32:33]:

It's the most it's the most beautiful thing about it.

Andrew Pace [00:32:36]:

When the NFL's rigged. Like, if any if if what they're saying is true, you're simply setting it up to be further rigged so that you lose. Yep.

GosuThune [00:32:45]:

Yeah. If you think anything's rigged, like, especially in sports because there's so many ways to bet on it, like, just go do it. Make money on it. Yeah. There's ways to do that. Like, so I mean, I don't know. It's pretty simple. But, I will say if you do like the Eagles' side and I don't know.

GosuThune [00:33:03]:

Maybe we were I'm jumping ahead. We're gonna discuss any of this stuff. But, like, if you like the Eagles' side, two years ago, I liked the Eagles' side. And I just bet the first half because my rationale with the Eagles is if if the Eagles are down at halftime to the Chiefs, do I really think they can come back and win the game? Not really. But do I think they could hold on to a lead if it's significant enough? Potentially. So I would rather just bet the first half for slightly worse, like, juice, like, 5¢ worse and just be done with it after that and then not have to worry about whether some the outcome itself is rigged or whether Mahomes is just does his thing. Just give me the if I think they're just such a better team, why not just bet the first half and just do it that way?

Andrew Pace [00:33:52]:

Well, John, there's a receiver on the Eagles named Johnny Wilson.

GosuThune [00:33:57]:

Yes. Yes.

Andrew Pace [00:33:58]:

And he's 23 o, so plus 2,200 for an anytime touchdown score. Have you bet on yourself?

Shane Mercer [00:34:08]:

I've I have not.

GosuThune [00:34:09]:

I don't I don't know how many times I've seen Johnny on the field this year.

Andrew Pace [00:34:12]:

I don't know I don't know if Johnny's taken the field.

GosuThune [00:34:15]:

That 23 looks like a bad number. Johnny Johnny was a stud at, he was a stud at Florida State Yeah. Last year. But, yeah, I don't know what, he just doesn't I mean, it's hard to get on the field with that group. You know? They've got so much talent out there, so I get it.

Shane Mercer [00:34:32]:

you know, let's talk about some of that stuff that and get into the props because, you know, prop betting is probably what a lot of people are gonna be looking at, as they consider. And they might just ignore the sides altogether and just, you know, maybe maybe, you know, load up on Saquon touchdowns two, three, four, Saquon touchdowns or, you know, something like that. They might be looking at the kind of thing where it's, you know, two for Hertz and two for Saquon. You know, those are sort of getting getting pretty popular. And, you know, on the other side, they might be looking at Mahomes to run one in and throw one to Kelsey or something like that. Any any props out there catching your eye? Anything, you know, any any sort of long shots that might have value? Anything out there?

GosuThune [00:35:13]:

I normally, like, don't really bet a lot of props. I do there are certain things that I I think our group, we've talked I know a couple people have already given out a couple props. I mean, we've had some official calls. So, so I won't won't, you know, won't won't go into those here. But if you if you want those, you can always join inplayLIVE. But, the oh, there was one really interesting thing that was, like, kind of it was definitely you're definitely gonna bleed some juice potentially in this, But I did see where this was, like the I don't know that the odds might be there because the line is moving towards the Eagles a little bit. But a couple days ago, you could still get the Eagles money line at plus one fifteen, and then you could bet Mahomes not to be the MVP in minus one thirty five. And it's, like, 20¢ of juice such that if the Chiefs won but anyone but Mahomes was the MVP, you would win both bets.

GosuThune [00:36:09]:

Right? Right? Or, like, or or no. Or or you you it's the only way you lost was that, like, Mahomes was the MVP. Right? Like, you would lose your 20¢ of juice. So the other way you would win, you would you would win money. So, and you would win both, like, if the Eagles won. Right? So that that was the I thought that was, like, a really interesting one. Like, maybe those odds have diverged since because the line is moving towards Eagles. But I believe it was, like, no Mahomes was on FanDuel, I think, at minus one thirty five, and then, like, the Eagles money line, like I said, out there was was plus one fifteen.

GosuThune [00:36:41]:

So, that that I thought was, like, a really interesting, angle to do it. And you could also just outline the Eagles to, like, minus one flat probably somewhere, like, plus one fifteen, plus one twenty still, and do it that way where you would if they if you somehow push that, they won by one, then you would still win the Mahomes not to be in VP then. Right. But that was just that was, like, a really interesting like, I'm risking, you know, maybe point two units to win two units. Right? So I'm beginning 10 to one that some that one of these things doesn't happen. So I I kinda like that. But those those are, like, a weird that's, like, that's, like, where my brain goes with these kind of games where they start giving you yes, no markets on things when they normally only allow you the yes side. And there's a reason they normally only allow allow you the yes side.

GosuThune [00:37:27]:

Right?

Shane Mercer [00:37:27]:

Absolutely. Are we seeing any other yes, nos out there? Like, how how many yes, nos are you seeing out there? Because they are so rare these days.

GosuThune [00:37:34]:

Well, yeah. I mean, there's a lot of stuff. Like, you can I mean, there's things like, you're like, yes, no, will there be, like, an octopus or whatever in the game? And I think it's like the this is not the the one the time to do it because of Jalen Hertz, or Saquon. Right? And the and the Sirianni goes for two to go up 10 because he's a savant, and no one else can understand the inner workings of his mind. So, like, you just I wouldn't but definitely wouldn't bet the no side in that, but there's there's stuff like that where, like, weird bets that you can find the the no side on.

Shane Mercer [00:38:04]:

Right. Right. I I like that you called him a savant. I'm questioning that. Is he really a savant, or is he just kinda nuts? I don't know. It's it's hard to hard to tell. Is there any scenario in which the Eagles win the Super Bowl and Saquon is not the MVP. Or, you know, like, I I think Oh, yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:38:25]:

100%?

Andrew Pace [00:38:28]:

think he's I think the the hype on him to win MVP is completely unjustified. He's amazing. I don't wanna ever make it seem like I'm talking shit about Saquon Barkley. He's not the quarterback. Jalen Hurts is more likely to be the MVP than Saquon Barkley, in my opinion. It's based on this game. If they can stop the run, who who's gonna run the football? Well, Jalen Hurts will be running the football. We talk about player props.

Andrew Pace [00:38:55]:

I'm not I'm not betting pregame. If if Saquon Barkley is having a hard time busting through the line of scrimmage, I don't believe Jalen Hurts will have as hard of a time. His rushing yards are way lower.

Andrew Pace [00:39:08]:

Than Saquon Barkley's. Obviously, they're 37 and a half pregame. Right? That's something I'm gonna have my eyes on in this in this game. I'm not Okay. I I I don't like proving my theories right or wrong pregame, but that will be something that I'm looking at in this football game. Now the other part of it is if again, these are big ifs. If they jam the box and make it hard on Saquon and he isn't breaking through, Jalen Hurts is gonna pass the football. Is he a, you know, super proficient passing quarterback, like some of it's like a Joe Burrow, for example? No.

Andrew Pace [00:39:41]:

He's not. But does he have the weapons between Goddard, the the greatest tight end of all time, Devonta Smith, who's an exceptional receiver, and AJ Brown, who's an elite receiver? Yes. And and is AJ Brown or Devonta Smith gonna pick up the MVP? I don't think so. So I think Hertz Hertz can easily win that MVP if the Eagles win. Easily.

Shane Mercer [00:40:07]:

See, the way the way I'm seeing it is that is is can the Eagles win without Saquon being successful? So say the Chiefs do James. You know? Can Yes. Can, you know, the Eagles actually get it done with Hertz having to be the guy? Because we haven't seen it.

GosuThune [00:40:25]:

Yes. Well, I mean I get it.

Andrew Pace [00:40:29]:

I mean, I get it. But yes.

Shane Mercer [00:40:31]:

Okay. Okay. That's your opinion. I got it. Yeah. You're you're on that side. I'm not sure I'm convinced. John, go ahead.

GosuThune [00:40:35]:

But it doesn't have to be on offense too, though. Like, what if somebody has two picks and one of them is pick six? You know, like, then they they just that's they're the MVP. You know, like, defenders actually it's really rare these days that they get it. But if there is, like, a 99 yard pick six or some or a scoop and score or something like that, like, that you're almost locked in unless somebody is having, like, an just an unbelievable game, like a quarterback's throwing for four touchdowns or, you know, something like that. Right? Those those one those massive defensive plays will swing in in such a way, that it makes it impossible to for anybody else to get it, I think. It's like that James Harrison one from the, Mets Steelers champion, Super Bowl against Cardinals. Right? That that pick six. Yeah.

GosuThune [00:41:23]:

The and then another one was, like, I thought about, three years ago, I had Tee Higgins at 50 to one, and he had, like, the very first play of the second half in that Bengals Rams Super Bowl was, like, a 70 yard touchdown to Tee Higgins. Right. And he'd already had a touchdown before that. And I looked at the live odds, and he was, like, minus 300 because they were winning the game. And he will most certainly would have won it, if they'd won the game. And, you know, it really only takes, like, one big play or one or two big plays from any one player to get it if it if it's not a quarterback. So, and that I think that just say the same just goes for running back. You know, Saquon has two sec 60 yard runs and one of them is for a touchdown and they win the game, maybe he probably gets it.

GosuThune [00:42:06]:

But, like, don't that I would assume that's also part of the Chiefs' game plan is to not let that happen. Right? So you're kinda betting against the in the incentive of the team, as well. Right.

Andrew Pace [00:42:16]:

I I think on that note, like, separately of who you think can or can't do it, MVP wise, just keep an eye on those markets live. So I'll give you guys an example. It was, the Niners Chiefs Patrick Mahomes first Super Bowl win. This was the one against Jimmy Garoppolo. They were down 10, I think, with seven minutes left in the fourth quarter. I can't tell you what the money line paid, but it wasn't great because by the time and I'm referencing a very specific point in time. They were in range down 10 at this point that we called this on stream. And I think the money line was around, like, plus $1.50.

Andrew Pace [00:42:55]:

It might have been plus 200, but Mahomes' MVP was, like, plus 400. So just keep an eye on and we won. Just keep an eye on MVP markets. I'll give you an example of one that I lost. This is pre inplayLIVE. Tom Brady was against the Rams. They won the game 13 to three.

Shane Mercer [00:43:13]:

Oh, yeah. I remember that Super Bowl.

Andrew Pace [00:43:15]:

So I feel like MVP was wide open and up for grabs, and, like, we were scouring the markets trying to figure out where there was value. At that point, Edelman still paid well, but it wasn't exciting. I got Stefan Gilmore at 200 to one in that game. He got an interception after we bet it, and he had already had one in the game. And we were like, they have to give this MVP to a defender. They just have to because this is such a defensive game. And then Julian Edelman, you know, did what he did kind of he was having a great game. His odds were already lower.

Andrew Pace [00:43:53]:

He was 50 to one pregame. You know? So, anyways, that's an example of one where I feel like I had a tremendous wager in, and it didn't come through. But just keep an eye on those live MVP markets. It's a rare opportunity where you have a correlated situation with a money line and then also with how that can be affected through a specific player. So the quarterback example is an obvious one. If it pays more than the money line and you go, if they win this game, he's winning MVP and you're getting better odds than the money line, just take the quarterback. Right? Just so so keep an eye on that stuff.

Shane Mercer [00:44:33]:

Yeah. Yeah. Love that. And, John, I wanna touch on something that you brought up the with the with the potential for, a defensive player to to come away with it. A lot of, I've seen I've seen a few articles sort of touching on, special teams and special teams in the Super Bowl and how well, they've actually sort of performed. You know, big big plays in the Super Bowl often happen on kick returns, punt returns, or pick six or, you know, scoop and score fumble, and and those are sort of game changing plays. Might there be any value on looking at, you know, an anytime touchdown for a special teams, you know, on one side or the other? Or or, you know, paste it to your point, perhaps just keeping an eye on that midgame.

GosuThune [00:45:20]:

Yeah. I think that's that's honestly, like, not a bad idea, especially in the Super Bowl when everything's on the table. Right? So they give me, you know, a punt returner. Like, if they're not normally somebody or kickoff returner, if they're not normally someone who gets touches on offense, they may in this game under a specific play. Like, maybe there's a play they've got designed for this person, as, like, normally, they'd be used as a decoy, but this time, they're actually gonna get the ball. You know? It's like so there's other ways for those people to score. So, like, I think that's actually really good. And and you have to check your house rules and your books.

GosuThune [00:45:55]:

Right? It's like, is it defensive special teams, like, for the team that scores, or is it the specific player on a punt return or a kickoff return? Right? I know some books like DraftKings changed theirs, from last year to this year, or maybe it's from two years ago to last year. I can't remember. It was recent. So make sure you know the house rules on that. And I that it was it was, kind of in that same vein. There was I was I think it's interesting to look at maybe certain players to get, like, one catch maybe later in the game or something like that, especially, like, on the Chiefs. So, you know, they like those little shovel passes, like that inside little shovel to Kelsey or something. Well, maybe that's, like, Noah Gray.

GosuThune [00:46:35]:

So maybe Noah Gray is not playing very much in this game, or maybe he is playing, but he hasn't gotten a target or he hasn't gotten a catch. And it's, like, all you need is that one but one catch in the second half, and he's plus one eighty to get a catch or something. And it's you know, the Chiefs, even with the lead, they're gonna throw those little underneath, those underneath passes, those bubble screens, like the the shovel passes, that kind of stuff. So, little things like that you can look at. And then another prop that I actually meant to bring up when you asked about it, but I forgot was, I always bet the the, shortest touchdown in the game to be under one and a half yards. It's always juicy or it has gotten juicier in recent years. I think it's, like, minus one sixty right now is the best you can find. But especially with the tush push Yeah.

GosuThune [00:47:21]:

On on Philly, I could see in the way teams get really conservative in big games like this. I could see that Philly being, like, first and goal from a four, and they just push push four times or something stupid like that.

GosuThune [00:47:32]:

And, like, you do you're just gonna get that because they're gonna get, like, one yard at a time. Right? Or even the Chiefs, like, you know, they they run a little bunch of little cute stuff, you know, sometimes when they get down in the in the the goal to go situation. So, I always really like that bet. I think it's won, like, five of the last six Super Bowls. So I I think even, like, the minus one sixty, minus up to, like, minus one eighty, 80, I think, is still is still really good on the on that bet. I like I like just, like, rooting for that bet.

Shane Mercer [00:47:58]:

I I I love that one. That makes a ton of sense, on both sides of the ball, you know, whether it's the Eagles or the Chiefs, that that end up there. I was just having a a look there as we were talking about special teams, and it was, it was actually two years ago, the the last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl, Kadarius Toney, running one back and getting stopped just short of the touchdown. A situation where, you know, you wouldn't have got the special teams touchdown, but, you know, if you did take that that, you know, under under one and a half yards for a touchdown, you know, it lined up perfectly for that. Other weird stuff out there. We can always bet on everything when it comes to the Super Bowl. You know, whether it's the length of the national anthem, how many times again? We'll we'll probably have a a Taylor Swift count, out there. How many times do they show her? How many times do they show, Roger Goodell? All sorts of weird things out there.

Shane Mercer [00:48:48]:

Is there anything in the the weird prop market that that's been standing out to you at all?

GosuThune [00:48:55]:

I definitely always like to bet a lot on those, or, or, like, I don't bet a lot on those. I bet a lot of them. Like Right.

Shane Mercer [00:49:00]:

Right

GosuThune [00:49:01]:

like, I'm at a Super Bowl party or hosting a Super Bowl party or something, and it's kinda like the hour leading up to the game. I'll throw a hundred bucks in an account with a bunch of those markets and just start putting $5 here. What you know, just, like, fun, you know, fun stuff, like, non very trivial unit sizes, for for me. Right? Like, just total total rec bets, something to cheer for. I do wanna say, I think the Goodell number just keeps dropping. He just doesn't get shown as much anymore. So that's, like, I guess, if you wanna sharp tape the tape on that.

Shane Mercer [00:49:30]:

The Number is dropping.

GosuThune [00:49:32]:

Like, it used to be a lot higher several years ago, and it seems to go down every year at it. Maybe I'm wrong, but I I always seem to bet the under, and I feel like it I just feel like I keep winning that one. I would definitely I definitely think Taylor would get shown more than Goodell if there's a head to head out there.

Shane Mercer [00:49:46]:

What what is the number on Goodell?

GosuThune [00:49:49]:

It's normally two and we used to always be two and a half. And, you you know, you'd you'd always get one typically from him, but it's just not something that people people wanna see. You know? People watching the Super Bowl aren't aren't football fans. Yeah. You know? They're just

Shane Mercer [00:50:03]:

That's a good point.

GosuThune [00:50:04]:

They're just people, and they wanna see Taylor Swift. They don't wanna they wanna they wanna see Blake Lively. You know? They they wanna, you know, learn about the the defamation suit or whatever that's going on. And, you know, there's there's things they care about that are more interesting than Roger Goodell. So, I like the under run Goodell, pretty much every year.

Andrew Pace [00:50:22]:

Well, the the Super Bowl with these weird markets is like a it's a dream for some of these pregame bettors that have access to information. Right? Like, there'll be teams watching the Gatorade basket filled. There's obviously people that know who's coming out with Kendrick and

Shane Mercer [00:50:36]:

Yep.

Andrew Pace [00:50:36]:

All that kind of stuff. And you're gonna see some pretty crazy line movement. If you can catch some of that line movement, usually it tells the truth with those markets. So, you you might be getting in at worse odds, and I wouldn't risk anything too crazy, but there's a reason why, why the lines move so much. So, like, which whichever sportsbooks like Pinnacle, have these markets that adjust their lines really well with action. If you just keep that stuff open and watch it, you might be able to catch another book that hasn't moved yet. And, usually, that the accuracy of that that sharp, sharp movement is, and harsh, you know, aggressive line movement is is tells the tale of the tape. I do think, Shane, just with your stuff about December there, I know I'm dating us back in this podcast.

Andrew Pace [00:51:22]:

Oh, by the way, the over one for anyone, betting on John's voice, dating us back to December, just talking about the books, losing. Now that to me is is a real challenging month for a lot of, sharp bettors. Yeah. They're they're typically gonna do really poorly. I know December 23, we had one of our worst days in the history of inplayLIVE. That was an NFL Sunday. It's just a really tough, difficult day. That happens.

Andrew Pace [00:51:55]:

We've rebounded from then significantly. But, like, if you zoom out December as a whole, and you piece together the rest of the football season, I know, we we've talked about that a little bit, last week there, Shane. But I think it does lend itself to betting live. And I think that from the standpoint of the Super Bowl itself, you know, we talked about all this noise coming at us in the next couple weeks and and different opinions. And, you know, it it when you look at some of these player props, obviously, you know, what color the Gatorade bath, things like that. I don't think the the the flow of the game's gonna impact that too much unless you know which side, which color has. You know what I mean? Like, if the Eagles are up, you wanna hammer orange, and if the Chiefs are up, you wanna hammer clear. But but, separately of that, when you look at these player props and then you take that example I just gave of December being really tough and then live betting being successful for us still, take these player props and all that information into the actual game itself, and it can really help you when you're looking at certain things.

Andrew Pace [00:52:56]:

So to John's point about Noah Gray, I wanna bring up Xavier Worthy. He doesn't get a lot of rushes, but he's probably gonna get a rush. His rushing yards are set at five and a half. I don't care to bet that he might not run the football. But if you have a book that offers him live and it's over 0.5 rushing yards at big plus money and you're sitting there with, like, a quarter or more of the game left, it might be worth a crack. Teams tend to pull out their biggest tricks and their most deceiving stuff at the most desperate of times. So keep keep an eye on that. Another one I was looking at to keep an eye on aside from the great Johnny Wilson there was, the the receiving yards for all of the running backs.

Andrew Pace [00:53:50]:

And the reason why I bring it up, obviously, you're gonna lose money if you if you bet those. Samaje Perine is a receiving weapon if the Chiefs are down. Kenneth Gainwell is the guy that receives passes for the Eagles if they're down quite a bit. Saquon's so important. But if they're down, like, eighteen twenty one points and the run isn't working, look for Gainwell to get passes in the air. Not down three, not down seven, but we're talking it is not working with Saquon. The Eagles are way down. You're gonna see a lot of number 14 out there.

Andrew Pace [00:54:27]:

I think that's his number. So just go through the player prop menu before. Create some scripts in your head. Don't bet on them. And then if you start to see them come into fruition, you can start deploying some money on some of these things. And, that works it that has nothing to do with the Super Bowl. That works for football, period.

Shane Mercer [00:54:49]:

Yep. Yeah. I love that. A great advice there. I love the the, you know, Xavier Worthy thinking about it like that. And and, you know, it's at five and a half, but it will go down to nothing, you know, where you just need them to get one yard to win it. That you know, stuff like that. And even that example you just painted there with with Gamewell, we were talking about Jalen Hurts rushing.

Shane Mercer [00:55:08]:

You know, if they're way behind and they can't run it with Saquon, that's you know, Jalen Hurts rushing could be on the table, and you might even be getting a line significantly lower than what the pregame line is, you know, and and really sort of be able to to get it there on on a on a single scramble play where where he wins it. It. You know?

Andrew Pace [00:55:27]:

I mean, it's tough with him because he's such a prominent Russian quarterback, but, yes, totally. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:55:32]:

Yeah. Yeah. It could be on the table, and, these are things, things to watch for. Something that I can't stop seeing because the ads are everywhere, and it's feels like it's been every Super Bowl now for the last so many years, but I think it's maybe only only the third one, is the FanDuel kick of destiny. Rob Gronkowski's out, and I think

Andrew Pace [00:55:52]:

Oh my god.

Shane Mercer [00:55:53]:

I think I think they've tapped the Manning brothers for this kick of destiny. I don't even know exactly if they're both kicking, who's kicking. I don't know what time it takes place, but I just keep seeing kick of destiny and and some woman with, like, a Minnesota accent down the ads that just won't go away, and she keeps talking about Destiny. I think it's like a town called Destiny. I don't know. Are you guys paying any attention to this at all, PACE? I know you're not. John, are you paying any attention at all? No. No.

Andrew Pace [00:56:20]:

about this, Shane. So the last two years, I actually kinda got excited for it, and and I it was like this big deal because we couldn't stop hearing about it.

Shane Mercer [00:56:28]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:56:29]:

And and I think year one, no one saw it. No one saw it.

Shane Mercer [00:56:33]:

Yeah. I had to go back and, like, look for it.

Andrew Pace [00:56:36]:

And then year two, I know I saw it, but then we found out that one of the two years or both years were rigged. Like, year one, he intentionally missed.

Andrew Pace [00:56:45]:

don't know if that was to create year two. But I am sorry. If you have any level of athleticism, you're probably gonna make the how long's the kick?

Shane Mercer [00:56:54]:

Oh, I don't know. It's about 25 yards. I think it's like a chip shot. I don't I don't think it's, like, something wrong.

Andrew Pace [00:56:59]:

You're just gonna make you're just gonna make that kick. So, like, the I think it's rigged. And, you know

GosuThune [00:57:05]:

I don't know. The Mannings, though, the level of any sort of athleticism. I don't know.

Shane Mercer [00:57:09]:

Yeah. Yeah.

GosuThune [00:57:11]:

Because he made painting, like, penguin shuffle up to the ball and, you know

Andrew Pace [00:57:14]:

Shane, I I thought you're talking about Kenny's kick at the event this year.

Shane Mercer [00:57:19]:

That that is what I wanna bet on.

Andrew Pace [00:57:22]:

We did a kick of destiny at our inplayLIVE event, but we didn't know that the person not only not only could it not be made, it wasn't possible. He couldn't kick the ball high enough to get above the upright. And I'm the sucker that said since I'm place holding and he's kicking, we have to offer the market for it will be made. So Kenny and I put up, like, a couple thousand dollars of of will this kick be made? Yes. We made it super, we made our side pay, quite a bit.

Andrew Pace [00:57:54]:

So there's a lot you had to take a lot of chalk or a lot of juice on on, on the may on the make side, but it wasn't possible. It was not possible.

Shane Mercer [00:58:01]:

It wasn't. I I remember that quite clearly. I think I think the make side or or sorry. The miss side paid, like, 1.6, or something like that. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:58:12]:

You hammered it, Shane?

Shane Mercer [00:58:12]:

Yeah. I got it. I got it. And I know John got it too because John and I had the scouting report. We we were out there, so we we knew what was gonna happen.

GosuThune [00:58:20]:

The insider information.

Andrew Pace [00:58:22]:

Yeah. Yeah. But, again, like, you you know, this is like a I I I we don't even know who's kicking. I I can't I'm surprised. Like, I

GosuThune [00:58:29]:

I'm like, did we just seriously bring this cake?

Andrew Pace [00:58:34]:

Anyways, the kick of Destiny is, like, not even paid attention to. I don't know if people will even notice that it it happens.

Shane Mercer [00:58:40]:

Yeah. I think that hope hopefully, this is the last year of it because I'm just sick of the ads. That's me anyway. Alright, guys. Well, I I think that's just about it. Any last thoughts about the Super Bowl before we, say goodbye and and move on?

Andrew Pace [00:58:51]:

Enjoy the game. If you're going to a party, don't drink and drive. When it comes to sports betting and gambling, there's a lot of hype around this day. Bet it responsibly, or don't bet it at all. Just go have fun and celebrate the game of football. And, yeah, have just just enjoy it.

Shane Mercer [00:59:07]:

Yeah. Yeah. Bonuses to be had. Get those bonuses. You know? Yeah. Yeah. We were talking about bonuses earlier on the show. There's tons of bonuses floating out there if you if you're interested in those.

Shane Mercer [00:59:16]:

John, any final words?

GosuThune [00:59:17]:

Well, I I guess I would say, like, what Pace just said, it's, better responsibly because, you know, we we said we have this saying that we bring up from time to time on our streams that if this if this weren't the only game on, I probably wouldn't even be looking at it. And so if this game turns into one of those games that if it weren't the only game on, you wouldn't be looking at it, you don't have to bet anything on it. You can just watch it. You know? There you go. Like, you don't have to bet it. A lot of people have to bet it. Bet bet $1 on it. Root root your dollar in.

Shane Mercer [00:59:46]:

There you go. Otherwise, sit back, enjoy the enjoy the wings, the pizza, and all the other good stuff there. Love it. Alright, guys. Well, Pace, John, sports bettors around the world. Till next week. Keep eating those books. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines.

Shane Mercer [01:00:02]:

Remember to like, download, and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below. And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code BEHINDTHELINES.