Episode 99

Welcome [00:00:00]:

You're listening to Behind the Lines, a podcast presented by inplayLIVE and powered by Pinnacle, the number one sports book where winners play and never get limited. Go to pinnacle.com/inplaylive to sign up and get in the game.

Matt Metcalf [00:00:16]:

When I take a bet, I think a lot of books would look up and be like, okay. What's Chris at? What's Pinnacle at? You know? What's what's FanDuel at? I we don't have to do that as much as Circa. We we take bets. We can focus on who our players are, how much we think we should move the line based on their action. We don't have to speculate on other books what they might be doing, which I think is a lot short.

Shane Mercer [00:00:47]:

Hey. Welcome in. It's Behind the Lines powered by Pinnacle, purifying the sports betting industry. I'm Shane. He's pace. We've got a show today. A big time guest coming up. Matt Metcalfe, former sportsbook director at Circa.

Shane Mercer [00:01:00]:

But first, a little post Super Bowl reaction, reflections, maybe a new debate even. Pace, what'd you think of the Super Bowl overall?

Andrew Pace [00:01:09]:

I mean, I had a blast. It was so much fun. Were you on the stream with us, Shane?

Shane Mercer [00:01:13]:

I was on a little bit here and there. My daughters are getting to the age now where they're actually interested in this cultural moment. Okay. Alright. I'm seizing that. And, I had the stream on, down here in my setup area, and I was sort of popping in to see what you guys are up to, what you're betting on. I love how that the tracker is live, so I could go take a look at the tracker and be like, oh, what do they got? Yeah. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:01:35]:

You know? But then I'm then I was upstairs on the couch surrounded by my girls watching the game. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:01:41]:

I mean, we we nearly swept the game. It was amazing. We had, Mahomes rushing, which cashed.

Shane Mercer [00:01:46]:

I got that.

Andrew Pace [00:01:47]:

Eagles first quarter, Eagles first half, Eagles third quarter. Then we took the game over.

Shane Mercer [00:01:52]:

I got the game over too. Got that one with you.

Andrew Pace [00:01:54]:

Yeah. And it's funny because there's moments, you know, how the end of the game can go in the NFL where it's like well.

Andrew Pace [00:01:59]:

it was the Super Bowl. They just kept trying, so it was awesome. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:02:01]:

That that game probably would have gone on under in the regular season. You know, the backup sort of come in and all that kind of stuff, but, yeah, they they kept they kept slinging it. I took p rine receiving yards. God. I I don't know if I've ever seen a guy run a route as many times as he did in that game and not not get a catch. He was targeted multiple times. And there's a crazy clip online now, and it's Mahomes basically dabbing every single one of his teammates, and he skips p rine. It's wild.

Andrew Pace [00:02:32]:

But, anyways, I saw that, and I'm like, well, fuck. No wonder why I lost that one. So that was the bet that I lost. But, yeah, it was it was another great great Super Bowl, great stream. And, I loved the game. Okay. So people don't like blowouts in the Super Bowl. There's all these narratives online of obviously the cheating and things that we've talked about, and we told everyone if you believe it, just bet the Chiefs.

Andrew Pace [00:02:54]:

Obviously, that wasn't the case. Public and the sharp money was on Philly. So I imagine, the books got hurt a little bit, but I also know their biggest liability was Saquon to score, and he didn't. But we've got the Kansas City Chiefs. They are a dynasty. They've won three Super Bowls. They've been to five. You know, the AFC runs through them, and they got fucking destroyed.

Andrew Pace [00:03:16]:

And don't let the 18 points fool you. Not that eighteen's a close game. But, you know, those were late late garbage scores from Kansas City. So Yeah. They got destroyed, and I think that's where I really appreciated the game. Philly's defense was absolutely remarkable.

Andrew Pace [00:03:35]:

Like, there was a drive Mahomes got sacked three times in a row on a drive. Yeah. That is that is unfucking believable.

Shane Mercer [00:03:40]:

A pick six.

Andrew Pace [00:03:41]:

Yeah. Yeah. Multiple interceptions. Mahomes is not an easy quarterback to sack. He's an exceptional scrambler, and he scrambles for rushing yards, and he scrambles and makes these crazy plays. And I saw him break out of a couple of them where it's like, oh, here he goes. And then the next guy was on him, and he just got fucking rocked. And I I will say, like, all the narratives and all the, you know, bullshit that we see out there, it was nice not to see those flags thrown.

Andrew Pace [00:04:08]:

Like, those were good, hard, clean hits out there, and that's what football should be. And it it was great to see. Aside the AJ Brown offensive PI to start the game, I was like, are we seriously doing this?

Andrew Pace [00:04:21]:

It was notably a terrible call. The broadcast said it was a terrible call, but that was behind us really, really quickly. And, the new narrative, man, the Eagles, man. They get all the calls. They get all the calls.

Shane Mercer [00:04:36]:

Here we go. Yeah. The Eagles. That'll be the that'll be it for next season. You know, the Eagles get all the calls. Yeah. Yeah. I thought the game was, was was you know, it would have been nicer to have a more exciting game, I think, for casual fans, like, I was surrounded by as I just mentioned.

Shane Mercer [00:04:51]:

You know, they were a little bit like, hey. This kinda you know, what's going on here? And I thought the Chiefs were supposed to be great. They suck. This and that. But I think what we saw was was that, defensive line really dominate the KCO line. And, and that and that came through pretty pretty clearly. That was sort of the the story of the game in a lot of ways. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:05:09]:

It was, it's interesting. It's it's great to see somebody else, you know, knock off Mahomes and and to see, a quarterback like Jalen Hurts, rise to the spot he's in. Pace, I've got a whole debate going on, your favorite social media platform, Tourette. Nice. Yeah. Yeah. We've got a debate going. And, man, it's raging over there because I listed what I think are the top five QBs currently playing in the league right now.

Shane Mercer [00:05:32]:

And, you know, at the top, of course, I've I've still got Mahomes. I think that's I think I think that's not a debate. There are people trying to have that debate right now Sure. Which I think is crazy to think. But Mahomes is by far the greatest quarterback currently playing the game. And now I'm putting Jalen Hurts in second place there. And I'm sure we you know, reasonable minds can have a a real debate about that, but the guy's been to two Super Bowls in three years. He's won one.

Shane Mercer [00:05:56]:

He beat the guys, you know, to to to get it done. Originator of the tush push, the last Super Bowl that he was in where they lost to the Chiefs, he had a phenomenal game. I I think that you gotta put him at number two ahead of guys like Allen, Lamar, and Burrow.

Andrew Pace [00:06:15]:

Right. So the the debate comes from, like, the raw talent and what we see from, Joe Burrow being a perfect example who has won an AFC championship, who has gone to the Super Bowl, had an MVP season this year, arguably the single best offensive season we've seen since maybe Mahomes four years ago when he won MVP. I'm not sure it was that good of a season, statistically speaking. But there are no asterisks in this world. As Ari Gold says, only scoreboards. And he says and ours is currently reading fucked. But the reason why I bring that up is because there's nothing that trumps one thing, wins and losses, and the ultimate win is the Super Bowl. Do I think Jalen Hurts is the second most talented quarterback in the NFL? Not Not even close.

Andrew Pace [00:07:02]:

Do I think Tom Brady is the most talented quarterback to play in the NFL? Not even close. Not even close.

Shane Mercer [00:07:09]:

Interesting.

Andrew Pace [00:07:09]:

But Jalen Hurts has to be at the top of the list. I'm not gonna put him necessarily at two because of one reason, and that's that he just won a goddamn ring. It's that simple.

Shane Mercer [00:07:22]:

It matters. It matters. And getting to the Super Bowl matters.

Shane Mercer [00:07:26]:

You know? Just just being there and putting yourself in the position to do it matters. And a lot of people are just like, oh, well, you know, Saquon this year. Well, he got to a Super Bowl two years ago without Saquon.

Andrew Pace [00:07:35]:

And on the clip, Shane, of you talking shit about me saying that Jalen Hurts could be MVP. You were shocked.

Shane Mercer [00:07:41]:

I wasn't shocked. I was just saying that if the Eagles won, it was very likely because of Saquon. But, obviously, I I was definitely wrong on that.

Andrew Pace [00:07:47]:

What I said was pound for pound. I'm like, if they stop Saquon, Hertz is gonna run the ball. He covered his over. Right? And and he's got weapons to pass to. He made one really bad pass in that game. One really bad pass.

Shane Mercer [00:08:00]:

It was terrible. He underthrew that ball. Like, it was crazy.

Andrew Pace [00:08:03]:

Made a second really bad pass to Dallas Goddard that got, they got a flag. I don't know what the flag was PI.

Andrew Pace [00:08:11]:

bad pass, but we're talking about two throws in the Super Bowl against championship defense. There's gonna be some imperfections in the game. His passing game was spectacular. Also, him rolling out and deciding to run when they weren't designed runs, they were never for, like, one or two yards where it's like, it's all I got. It was like, no. I've got a hole, and I'm going. And then he's sliding down, not taking contact. He played a brilliant game of football.

Andrew Pace [00:08:41]:

Brilliant.

Shane Mercer [00:08:42]:

Yeah. Those runs, he really turned on the burners. You know? Like, he was gone when when he saw that hole open up. And, yeah, that that was really impressive. That's typically what we've seen from Mahomes. And and like you were saying, Mahomes got caught when he tried to do it and and got brought down. Yeah. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:08:56]:

Yeah. It was it was it was interesting to sort of watch the game from from you know, to sort of see those those sort of mini games within the game, play out. Alright. The other big thing, that I gotta bring up with you, Pace, it's got the Internet divided, and I wanna know what you think, the halftime show.

Andrew Pace [00:09:11]:

Oh, what about it?

Shane Mercer [00:09:14]:

Well, what did you think? Did you like it? Did you not like it? Was it was it just meh for you? What would you think overall?

Andrew Pace [00:09:22]:

I mean so, like, I've seen a lot of halftime shows. There's some that I'm not a fan of the the artist necessarily. Like, I don't not like Rihanna. I thought the halftime show was incredible. I don't listen to Shakira or J. Lo. I mean, I wasn't complaining about Shakira and J. Lo up there.

Andrew Pace [00:09:39]:

Right? The best halftime show in my opinion that I've ever watched was the, the g unit, doctor Dre, Snoop Dogg. It was I thought it was just unbelievable. The production, the music, everything. I love their music, and a lot of people hated that that, that halftime show. That's also the most viewed halftime show in the history of the Super Bowl, I guess, of any sport. And I think that Kendrick Lamar was kind of trying to piggyback on on that to an extent. I have no idea what the viewership turned out to be. I don't know a lot of Kendrick's songs.

Andrew Pace [00:10:12]:

He's got a couple that I really like. When they came on, I was dancing. You know? I don't I don't really know what else to say. I know there's a lot of, like, the the beef thing, and he was like, you know, he's kinda, like, hinting that he's gonna play not like us, and then it started playing. And he's like that song, and then, like, he stopped and paused and said Yeah. Called out Drake. Serena Serena, like, dated Drake for, like, a month, and she was crip walking in there. I mean, there was controversy for sure.

Andrew Pace [00:10:39]:

Like, if you look at the stands in the stadium while it was going on, like, it's just a bunch of people on their phone. They don't even know what's going on. Like, I don't know.

Shane Mercer [00:10:47]:

Yeah. I I think there was I think I think a lot of it went over people's heads. I think if you're not a fan of Kendrick Lamar, you probably didn't get a lot of it because you you hadn't heard these lyrics before, and you probably didn't understand the meanings behind a a lot of what he was saying. Yeah. Yeah. I I really enjoyed it, though, personally. I I've been listening to a lot of Kendrick Lamar. One, I just love his music.

Shane Mercer [00:11:07]:

It makes you get up and move and wanna dance. I love that aspect of it, but he's also, a really talented artist, poet. And I, I just enjoy his music a lot, so I enjoyed that halftime show. Very political, very subversive. I I I thought it was really great, but I can understand and see how, it just did not land for for a lot of people though.

Andrew Pace [00:11:27]:

Yeah. You you gotta be a fan of his music for sure. I thought SZA's voice was amazing. She looked good up there. Yeah. Yeah. I I really don't care about the halftime shows. Like, I'm here for football, and I know people do care about the halftime shows.

Andrew Pace [00:11:42]:

So yeah. I mean, it it is kind of strange that his biggest song is is beef for someone else, and, like, he made a point calling him out in the show, and you know, that's the big statement. I don't know.

Shane Mercer [00:11:54]:

That, like yeah. That's a moment in hip hop history right there where a rap battle and a beef has appeared at the Super Bowl halftime show in that way, which is kind of cool. Right.

Andrew Pace [00:12:02]:

Yeah. It was a big moment for sure, I guess. You know, we're watching. Yeah. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:12:07]:

Yeah. It was cool. Back to betting, before we get to the interview. That wraps the NFL season. We touched on a lot of the stats, in a in a couple episodes ago, but, I know and out of that, it's officially wrapped. I think we were looking at it and, college and NFL both with double digit ROIs Yeah. On the entire season as a whole. That includes preseason.

Shane Mercer [00:12:31]:

That includes playoffs. That's the whole shebang, in both sports. Both of them in the double digits. I think it was, like, 11% for NFL and 14% for college football, something like that.

Andrew Pace [00:12:41]:

Yeah. So preseason, regular season, and playoffs combined, we did 60.3 units with an 11.3 ROI in just the NFL. But this is the thing. We talk about chaos in sports and how that can lead to profits, and it does. And I think one of the biggest arguments for that is if you do have a game that's handicapped as a pick them, like the Eagles against the Chiefs, and it is really one-sided. That's my classic analogy of, you know, you you're told that it's raining right now on your weather app, and you walk outside and the roads are dry and there isn't even a drop of rain falling. That's the equivalent to that. And and, you know, when the there's predictive software that obviously has a certain degree of accuracy when it comes to the weather, and and it's similar with sports.

Andrew Pace [00:13:31]:

We turn on the game, and it's it's not raining. It's sunny. And we're betting on it there to be sun. And that's how the game went for us yesterday. But separately of that chaos stuff, in the playoffs, you have better teams and better teams execute. And what I mean by that is the probability of a field goal going through the uprights is probably gonna be higher provided that it's not some crazy weather game, which obviously we do get in the playoffs as well. Mhmm. And the probability of teams finishing drives is prob is gonna be higher or at least scoring on the drive is gonna be higher, less blunders, things like that.

Andrew Pace [00:14:04]:

So with the playoffs specifically, we went seventy two and fifty for 13 units and a 32.7% ROI. And you will see at inplayLIVE in the NBA, the NHL, in March Madness, and in NFL playoffs, you'll have some of our highest ROIs of the entire season because the execution is what we would more come to expect or want from who it is that we're betting on. We don't have Caleb Williams, you know, scrambling around and throwing a stupid pick or, you know, Mac Jones taking a sack fumble. Like, the list goes on and on. Right? So, a lot of that is out of, out of the picture. And there's there's a motivational drive in the playoffs that doesn't exist in the regular season for all sports, and that is never in question. So does Patrick Mahomes rush more in the playoffs? Absolutely. He doesn't do it in the regular season as much because he knows the sustainability of his body is so important to his career and to his team that season.

Andrew Pace [00:15:11]:

Whereas in the Super Bowl or any other game, he knows he's putting it all on the line, so you're gonna see more scrambling, more running from him. There's predictability like that. I know I'm talking against predictability with chaos theory, but there there are things like that that we've been able to really capitalize on year in, year out for all of those major major sports as we get into playoffs. So that's kinda what we're what's next. Right? We're into March Madness and playoff season for NBA and NHL. So, exciting times ahead and looking forward to keep crushing it.

Shane Mercer [00:15:40]:

Yeah. Yeah. Looking looking forward to this time of year as well. I said it last, last week. I think, that, you know, this this run, leading up to to sort of the summer is just is has always been fantastic, with with IPL and, looking forward to to another strong run over these next, next few months. Alright. Well, I think that wraps up, our our Super Bowl talk. Why don't we throw it over to our guest now? Matt Metcalfe is the former sportsbook director at Circa Sports.

Shane Mercer [00:16:11]:

He spent his entire adult life in the game in one way or another, having been a player on both sides of the counter. He's now the chief risk officer at Mojo. Matt, welcome to the show.

Matt Metcalf [00:16:23]:

Thanks for having me, Shane.

Shane Mercer [00:16:24]:

Hey. Really excited to have you on here. You're gonna bring, a lot of, insights to our community that I think are are pretty unique. So really excited to have you on, to sort of bring that, Sharp book perspective to the conversation. Absolutely, excited for this. So thanks for joining us. Before we get into everything you did at Circa, for many of our audience members may not have heard of you. Many of them definitely have, since we have a lot of, long time Sharpes in our community.

Shane Mercer [00:16:51]:

But some of, you know, some of them are sort of newer to sports betting or they're at different stages in their sports betting journey. So give us a little bit of your background. I know you've started betting as a youngster, probably well, before you were legally able to to wager. You got into it as a kid, then you you sort of I know college basketball was a big part of your sort of transition into looking at bookmaking and sort of moving over to that side of things, and you moved to Vegas, like, right after graduating high school. But, that's sort of, a little bit about what I know. Give us the Coles Notes version on your sort of sports betting origin story.

Matt Metcalf [00:17:30]:

Yeah. And I'll only make one correction. I moved to Vegas after college, but I would have moved after high school. I would have moved after high school if you were allowed to work in a book before 21. Right. The only reason I went to college is because I felt like I had to kill a few years. That makes sense.

Shane Mercer [00:17:43]:

That makes sense. Yeah.

Matt Metcalf [00:17:45]:

So I, yeah, as you mentioned, I got into sports betting pretty young. I kinda quickly realized that I was not a good sports bettor and kinda got fixated on this idea of kinda bookmaking and looked at my options at the time, which, you know, thirty years ago I'm really dating myself here. But thirty years ago, your options were pretty much like, you know, move to an island offshore, which I knew nothing about and didn't really wanna leave The United States or pack up your bags and go to Vegas. So, you know, pretty much right after I graduated college, I went to University of Florida, threw all my stuff in a car and drove to Las Vegas, which was not unsimilar to a bunch of guys and I that I ended up meeting in Vegas who became lifelong friends of mine. You know, they all came from different parts around the country, but, all had this love for sports betting and kind of did the same thing. And I ended up a book at a book called The Imperial Palace, which was across the street from Mirage that specialized and kinda was on the forefront of prop betting. They had these huge prop menus every year for the Super Bowl, but they also did it on a week by week basis. And it was led up by this guy named Jay Kornegay, this other guy named Ed Salmons, and they were kinda known as the kings of props.

Matt Metcalf [00:18:46]:

So I worked there for about a year, and then we moved over to a book that at the time was called the Las Vegas Hilton Superbook, eventually became the Westgate Superbook. I worked there for about seven to eight years with the same team that we had started, you know, Imperial Palace with and moved over to the Hilton and kinda grew that into a big business. And then I left in 2010 to become a professional sports bettor. Focused mostly on, like, futures betting, college football, and NASCAR betting. Did that for about eight years and then kind of got an opportunity, like, a once in a lifetime opportunity to come back and open a book the way that I kind of thought it should be run. Met a guy named Derek Stevens, who at the time owned a Golden Gate Casino and the d casinos in Downtown Las Vegas. Not knowing me at the time was building a casino called Circa, which we eventually named the whole brand Circa Sports. But, we basically took a lot of the stuff that I'd grown up with in terms of once I got to Vegas, just knowing about Pinnacle.

Matt Metcalf [00:19:40]:

And Pinnacle is probably the most influential, book to me. And I just kind of always loved kind of the straightforward manner they did business, the big limits, the tight splits, volume being the approach. And I was just kinda fixated that you can run a book dealing to all players. And in my view, with the proper audience, can make more money than booking to just, like, select squares, which I still believe to this day. You know, books like FanDuel and DraftKings have a bigger audience and honestly have a bigger piece of the pie. So, you know, I don't yet have a chance to prove that, but that's my kind of theory. And, you know, today, yeah, that's how I got to Vegas. That's how I ended up in this industry.

Shane Mercer [00:20:15]:

So, Lave, big shout out to Pinnacle, sponsor of our show here on behind the line. So, you know, really interesting to hear how they sort of, helped you kind of in your, bookmaker development.

Matt Metcalf [00:20:27]:

A %. I mean, I not to cut you off, but I I I can't I can't emphasize enough how seeing Pinnacle starting in probably, like, 02/2005 and the way they would escalate limits and they're, like, the thrill I would get by going on the site and seeing them eventually, like, change I I forget what colors were what. I'm assuming a green circle probably meant, like, you know, highest limits. I don't remember what color it was, but, they would kind of change that change that marking on the game, you you know, depending on the volume they got and the liquidity they got, and you'd be excited. I mean, you'd hover over a game that you thought was just a random game, and they'll take in 200,000 on it. You're just like, wow. This is incredible. So, yeah, they definitely planted the seed in me.

Matt Metcalf [00:21:04]:

They used to take yes, no markets on just, like, a variety of things. They'd have yes, no markets on anything you could dream of betting. So it was a really great place to, like, hedge action as a young veteran who was trying to lock in profit to build my bankroll. Yeah. I just can't speak enough about the pinnacle of sports that I dealt with, kind of pre things got shut down to The US. I think that was 02/2008 or '9, somewhere around there.

Shane Mercer [00:21:23]:

But Right. I gotta ask you about sort of the the transition. You know, how you got into bookmaking makes a lot of sense, you know, and sort of driving out to Vegas and and getting into it. Making that decision to go, back to the other side of the counter must have been a little bit more, perhaps, challenging, maybe some some hesitation there. What made you wanna go become a pro sports bettor after being on that side of the counter for so long? And I guess maybe did you feel like maybe you just gained the tools you needed to be successful at it?

Matt Metcalf [00:21:56]:

Yes. I think I gained a lot of tools and under Mostly, I think understanding the market is, like, the key. And just like market dynamics is the key reason that I would that I would suggest to, like, any young person who's thinking about being professional sports bettor. Like, you don't necessarily need to do it and you might be sex successful without it, but it just gives you such a better picture of, like, the players, who's out there, how many smart people there are, you know, how even the sharpest guys in the world are only winning at a certain clip. It just it just gives you really the ability to be self aware down the line. That said, the decision for me kinda made itself. I got into, the first thing that kind of tipped me off that I could kind of win and be a bettor was discovering, a niche market. Like, I discovered NASCAR.

Matt Metcalf [00:22:38]:

I found some information that I didn't think was really factored in the line, and I started just kinda betting it. And I had a lot of success, and I went from kind of thinking, okay. Well, some people can be a professional bettor to, like, this is actually something that could be possible, if I could scale it right. So having really good early success with NASCAR just totally flipped my perspective. It got to a point, you know, I was early enough in kind of, I guess, the the liquidity and the life cycle of, like, NASCAR or the maturity, I should say, of NASCAR as a betting sport where I just had ridiculous success betting it to the point where it allowed me to kind of have the money to experiment in other markets that I eventually had success like college football futures. But, anyway, to answer your question, sportsbooks don't pay as much as they should pay talented people. And, you know, I believe that I had helped grow the the Hilton into what I thought was the best book in Vegas, and the money just really was capped. And I didn't understand how, you know, playing as bigger role as I perceived that I played in this that I couldn't make more than this x amount, which I I found kind of I don't wanna say insulting, but it it was it was a very low amount of money for what I thought I brought to the table.

Matt Metcalf [00:23:51]:

And I was making more money betting significantly than working in a sportsbook and doing both at the same time. I didn't wanna quit the sportsbook. I loved working there, but the amount of money I was making betting, it just it just didn't make any sense for me to be going into work for that. And so, you know, I left I left the sports book not really wanting to, but it took me to the next levels of bettor. I had a % of my time to focus. I refined a lot of my handicapping stuff, you know, in terms of how I was coming about the plays and allowed me to focus on other markets that I maybe didn't before. I I just had a lot more time to, like, get better. And so I took my betting to a different level, I think, after I left despite the fact that my win percentage probably dropped because the market got a little more more efficient as I left in NASCAR, especially.

Matt Metcalf [00:24:36]:

But I was still making more money because I was doing a better job of just, like, you know, being a better bettor. It sounds confusing. But, yeah. So it the decision the decision made itself. And and then, you know, later on, I think the decision made itself again for me to get back into bookmaking again. So

Shane Mercer [00:24:51]:

Do you still bet on sports? And and are you betting on NASCAR still, you know, regularly?

Matt Metcalf [00:24:56]:

It's it's funny. I I made a decision in, I guess, it was, like, 2017, '20 '18 when I moved back to to to work for Circa that I couldn't effectively do both. So I stopped betting seriously in 2018. I I still bet I bet futures because I really enjoy the futures markets, and I bet k. Boxing, here and there, like, mostly, like, higher profile fights and stuff. But Like Jake Paul Tyson? I I did bet Jake Paul Tyson. That's a really good position for me. So, yeah.

Matt Metcalf [00:25:26]:

I I I like betting I like betting events, like, that I have a long time to think about and really analyze, and that's why I like futures markets too. But I can't stress enough to listeners how time consuming it is to be a professional bettor and how much you have to dedicate your every waking moment to doing it to be successful. So I didn't feel like I could do it on a level where, you know, I was respecting it enough where I could expect to win, to to just kinda be betting. So it felt, you know, it felt almost disrespectful to, like, myself and my bank role and, like, what I made to, like, keep betting when I was focusing on this job at Circa and disrespectful Circa too because I wanted to have a % of my mind, like, on creating this, like, sports book that I thought could be the best in the world. So, no, I I haven't really bet seriously since 2018 while still, you know, betting things here and there, but I I would not call it serious betting.

Shane Mercer [00:26:16]:

Right. Right. Just, a little more record or for fun even if there is a short of sharp focus to it.

Matt Metcalf [00:26:22]:

Yeah. I still feel like I have a decent opinion. And, honestly, like, you know, I've I I use most of what I would like, most of the information. I'm still doing all the work in terms of, like, when I'm booking college football, like, that I would do when I'm betting. But for some reason, it's just a little different because I'm not I'm I'm concentrated so much on Circa, and I'm not concentrated on the market as broadly, which might sound confusing to some people. They might think, oh, you work at a sports book. All you do is watch other books lines. But when you run a sharp book, you don't necessarily have to pay as much attention to the market.

Matt Metcalf [00:26:52]:

You can concentrate and dig in on your own action because you're seeing most of the sharp action and most of the money flow through your own book. So it's like, when I take a bet, I think a lot of books would look up and be like, okay. What's Chris at? What's Pinnacle at? You know? What's what's Fanduel at? I we don't have to do that as much as Circa. We we take bets. We can focus on who our players are, how much we think we should move the line based on their action. We don't have to speculate on other books what they might be doing, which I think is a luxury.

Shane Mercer [00:27:17]:

So Well, I guess that's the benefit of working at a sharp book as opposed to a Softbook. Where at a Softbook, you're gonna have to do that. Right? You're gonna have to watch the other the other lines from all the other books and look to the Sharpbooks to see where they're at. Where when, for example, you're at a Sharp book like Circa, you can zero in more on your action. Right?

Matt Metcalf [00:27:36]:

Yeah. And I think that you never really truly know the motivations of books when they move lines. I mean, you've got human beings for the most part. I understand some of it's automated, but moving lines around the market and, like, you know, they might not be as comfortable with x amount of risk as this book is. So, you you know, they might be moving towards their liabilities in a way that doesn't necessarily reflect all the sharp action. I know it's Circa firsthand. You know, I've talked about this before on other on other, shows, but, you know, I'm I'm reckless and chaotic with my line moves early in the price discovery process in a way where if I was another book trying to read into my own line moves, like, it would be insanity. Like, there's a lot of time, there's no rhyme or reason to some of the moves I'm making.

Matt Metcalf [00:28:15]:

I'm just looking for just looking for action. I'm just trying to discover, like, hey. Is somebody interested on laying six on this game? Okay. They wanna, like, they're they're not laying six. Let's try seven. Let's try eight. Like, I'm I'm I'm kind of just, like, exploring looking for bets in a way that I wouldn't wanna be on the other end of that trying to read into, oh, circle likes this. Circle thinks this.

Matt Metcalf [00:28:31]:

Like, that's that's just a fool's errand.

Shane Mercer [00:28:33]:

Interesting. Yeah. I I like I I wanna get in dig into this a little bit in terms of of your method behind price discovery because I don't think I've heard anybody out there kind of explain it the way that I I've sort of heard and seen you explain it before. Talk to me a little bit about your method behind this. And I guess for maybe, some listeners out there who may not even be familiar with the term, what is price discovery, and and then how do you approach it?

Matt Metcalf [00:28:58]:

Price discovery is basically early in the life cycle of a point spread. So think, like, Sunday Sunday night when next week's NFL lines come up. The bookmaker does not have time to go through these games and put what I put up what I would call, like, an expert line or, like, the perfect line. All we care about is getting a number on the board that's not terrible so we can take bets and try to understand what the smart people think, what the sharp people think. The power of a bookmaker is I can see, like, all these different opinions and utilize, like, all these opinions. Whereas, like, a single bettor, I usually just have my own opinion. The bookmaker can see everything if he writes bets. So my goal when the limits are lower, like, on a Sunday night in NFL, CIRCA might open limits for 3,000, 5 thousand.

Matt Metcalf [00:29:40]:

You know? And then on the weekend, the following Sunday, I'd be taking 200,000. My goal is to uncover as much information via taking bets as I can early in the process when the limits are lower. So I'm only paying 8,000 a bet on a Sunday night. That to me is is cheap, you know, in regard to what I have to pay on the Saturday, the following Saturday, like a hundred thousand, 2 hundred thousand to find out information. So if I'm not writing bets, I'm not learning anything. So I need to be very aggressive and move my lines around to take bets. So that's what we practice at Circa. Like I said, like, sitting there and not seeing bets is not a good thing.

Matt Metcalf [00:30:14]:

Sometimes I think a lot of bookmakers think, okay. They're not betting my line. That means it's good. But when the limits are low, you know, it doesn't necessarily mean that. When the limits are 200,000, maybe it does mean your line's good. But yeah. So we move I'm I'm probably the most aggressive of of the guys at Circa in terms of doing it. And I and it's and it's easier to be aggressive in in markets that have a little more, like, just variance in terms of the numbers like, college football, college basketball.

Matt Metcalf [00:30:39]:

Those numbers early in the season can be, you know, just all over the place. So I can't I usually don't get as much trouble kind of exploring the college football market. It's a little harder to do in a in a NFL market where the numbers are a little more solid. But, yeah, my my theory is basically move the numbers around, you know, try to see information. Personally, I've talked about this before, but I like I like being on offense. I hate sitting there and being a slave to the bettor and having to be just reactive reactive. So I try to get ahead of the bettor. I pay a lot attention to college football markets.

Matt Metcalf [00:31:09]:

I think I have an okay opinion. I try to, like, take leads. Sometimes I'll go the opposite way of what I think just to try to see if the bettesupport me. So, you know, I might think that Georgia should be three versus Clemson, and I'm not seeing any bets. I might go down to two and a half to see if somebody thinks that that's a good bet because I want I wanna have the ability to kind of lean into my opinion. As a bookmaker, you can get in a lot of trouble if you start kind of booking to your opinion without the sharps kind of, like, what I would say blessing it or, like, confirming it. Like, that that to me is, like, the key. So early in my bookmaking career, I had all these opinions.

Matt Metcalf [00:31:43]:

I thought it was smart. I'd be like, oh, I know I think George would be five versus Clemson. Alright. Let's open at five. The market's at three. I'm like, screw you. Three and a half. Three and a half.

Matt Metcalf [00:31:51]:

I'm taking all this dog money on Clemson from Sharp Players, but not for me by crazy respect. But I'm thinking, I'm right. I'm right. Whereas as I got older, I realized, like, let's see if the Sharp's agree with me before I start going to war on this on this side because, like, I'm just one guy. And, like, as good as I think I might be, like, again, I'm just one market participant. So that's kind of, I think, a little difference in how I operate. I definitely like to play offense. I don't like to be pushed around.

Matt Metcalf [00:32:16]:

I'm not gonna just sit there and wait for you to, like, bet on your timetable. I'm gonna escalate limits in a way that you know, we have a lot of bettors who won't make a bet till the limits get high because they don't wanna show their hand in the market. So they might be like, I'm not gonna make a bet till the limits are 30,000 because that's why I need to make a bet. So I'm gonna try to force their hand and say, okay. If I can get the limits to 10 or 20 dimes on Monday, maybe I can get somebody else smart to make this bet in the way where the guy who usually waits for the limit to be 30 dimes or 50 dimes feels like he's gotta start playing at 10 dimes or 20 dimes. So I'm basically just trying to, like I I'm trying to trying to beat these guys and make them, like, give me the information before they want to. That's my goal. And granted, they probably are still gonna be able to play the game the way they want to most of the time.

Matt Metcalf [00:32:56]:

But when you run a book like Circa and you take big bets and you have the ability to, I think I think we can draw out some information sooner than they would like to sometimes. So

Shane Mercer [00:33:05]:

I'm glad you kind of explained it to me there because I wanted to ask you about the sort of the the timeline of things, you know, like line opens, you know, and and you you, you know, post a number and you start taking in the those sort of smaller amounts of wagers. And, you know, as the week goes on, you know, how how soon do you feel that you're at a number that, you know, is has reached maximum efficiency? You know, is it midweek? Is it Wednesday? Or is it right up until, you know, game time?

Matt Metcalf [00:33:34]:

It depends on the sport. I'll talk to college football, and then I'll kinda say NFL. But college football is kinda like my my specialty. So it it's it's all game by game. And some games, you get a lot of two way early, and you're able to escalate the limits. And that's something that so when we started Circa, I had this, like, limit schedule where I was like, alright. Mondays, we go to 10 dimes on power five games, 5 dimes on the group of five games. Wednesday, we go to 30 dimes.

Matt Metcalf [00:34:00]:

And I was very rigid with my with my, kind of limits.

Shane Mercer [00:34:03]:

Okay.

Matt Metcalf [00:34:04]:

And as we moved on, I realized that, like, that wasn't always the approach because there were certain games where, like, they wouldn't show me a bet, and then I'd go to 30 dimes on Wednesday, and I get popped twice on, like, a side where nobody had even touched the game. So I was like, alright. This isn't working. Okay. I need to try to, like, influence and get action early in the cycle. So, basically, once I started seeing two way on a game, it was comfortable that, like, there was some back and forth. So, you know, to use the Clemson, Georgia example again, like, you know, I had a sharp guy, let me Georgia minus three on Monday, and then I had another sharp guy take the Clemson plus four on Tuesday. You know, the the bet on Monday was for 10 dimes, the bet on Tuesday was for 20 dimes.

Matt Metcalf [00:34:40]:

I'm feeling pretty good that that number is, you know, somewhere in that three to four range, probably maybe three and a half. Like, it feels like it should be three and a half based on what I've seen. Granted, doesn't always work that way. Sometimes the sharps early in the week will kind of head fake you with what they want you to think. So we have to watch out, like, on you know, when the limits are low, they might lay me Georgia minus three. I go to four. They take the four bet. No.

Matt Metcalf [00:35:00]:

I'm gonna go three and a half. And then as soon as I'm on the limits of 50 k, they take constant plus three and a half for 50. And I'm like, alright. They basically got, you know, an extra 50 k bet because they popped me for month on Monday for 10 k, kinda give me a fake. So it gets complicated, but I would say the biggest predictor of, like, when I'm gonna raise limits and when I feel comfortable of efficiency is, like, back and forth two way action where they're kind of, like, you know, in a tight window. And I'm trying to find the, like, the the edges of that window as early as possible. So the nightmare scenario is Saturday. You know, I've got a game, haven't taken a lot of bets, and I'm at, like, minus nine on a game.

Matt Metcalf [00:35:35]:

And they start laying me on that game, and all of a sudden, you know, I can't find the top of it. I'm at ten. They lay ten. I'm at eleven. They lay eleven. And then it's like, alright. Where do you go now? Like, do you go like, are you are you four still, like, two, three points off? And, like, at that point, you're taking 50 k aside and you go up to, like, 13, and then you have somebody really sharp take back 13. I mean, you're, like, you're in hell right there.

Matt Metcalf [00:35:56]:

Like, you've taken a bet at nine, ten, 11, plus 13. Like, I mean, you're just two points, like, exposed. Like, I you're just that's the situation you don't wanna be in. So you would like to have found that the ceiling of that number is 13 when the limits were still low on Monday or Tuesday, and you're still taking, like, 10 k aside. So NFL, I think go ahead, Kyle.

Shane Mercer [00:36:14]:

I I think we call I think we call that reverse middling. Yeah. Exactly. You're putting yourselves in the reverse middle.

Matt Metcalf [00:36:19]:

Yeah. Yeah. Which is not a fun spot as a bookmaker taking high limits. So NFL, I think, is a little more of an efficient market, and we have an idea where these numbers should be. So, you know, I I tend to think that NFL gets a little, like, relatively efficient, you know, by Thursday, Friday for sure. But Yeah. You know, we we're always we're always thinking in terms of, like, writing two way action as bookmakers because that's how we make money. Not that we're, like, afraid to have decisions, but we the worst I I would say the worst feeling as a bookmaker is to take two sharp bets in a row on the same side.

Matt Metcalf [00:36:51]:

You feel like you didn't do your job. You feel like you didn't move the number far enough. You feel like, oh, crap. Is there, like, am I way off here? Like, the nightmare scenario that, like, you could lose your job if you did enough was taking three bet three sharp bets on the same side of a row. Like, that's we when young guys come into our room and they and they do that or they you know, the tendency is funny as enough. It it is. It is. The tendency is for young guys not to move the line far enough.

Matt Metcalf [00:37:12]:

They're scared of getting middled. They're scared of getting excited. As bookmakers, like, I especially when limits are lower, don't don't worry about that. Like, try to find the number. Writing two way is what we're here to do. Like, we're here to take bets. So, like, if you're gonna sit there and sweat every game falling on the number, like, you're just not gonna be that great of a bookmaker, and you probably don't have the risk tolerance to be in this anyway. So, like yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:37:32]:

In in today's day and age, how do you know that you've taken a hit from a sharp bettor versus, you know, somebody that's, you know, a rec player with a big bankroll?

Matt Metcalf [00:37:46]:

It's so much tougher than it used to be. I feel like when I first started, it was, like, so obvious. It was just like Sharp's bet, dog and under. You know, Square's bet, favorite them over. And I think the wise guys are so much more like, the numbers are just better, and so you get more variety of action. And I think that anytime there's a tendency for the bookmakers to kind of believe, like, a a narrative like that, you know, the sharps are gonna take advantage of it. I I remember back in the day, like, for a long time, home dogs were just the thing. And one of the biggest, most respecting betting groups, like, some of their strongest plays would be, like, road favorites.

Matt Metcalf [00:38:18]:

And they just, like they picked us apart as bookmakers because our tendency was just, like, we we just were so scared to move those road favorites aggressively in certain spots because we're just, like we had a drill in our brain that, like, dog and under, you know, home dog is the sharp side on a lot of these things. And I I think that they use that against us for at some point in time. But it's like, to your point, it's there's so many more people in the market and so many people have different ways of playing. There's a lot of, like, our guys in there. There's a lot of guys that are, like, kind of sharp arbors where they kind of know the preferred side, and they're kind of, like, they're playing the best price and they're arbing a little, but they're still playing the sharp side. So when I was younger, I feel like we had, like, two buckets of players, sharp and square. Now it's like you could divide the sharp players into, like, 20 buckets, I feel like. I still will say, when the sharpest guys bet, you you have some physical reaction in your gut where you know that was a sharp bet.

Matt Metcalf [00:39:10]:

At least I do.

Shane Mercer [00:39:13]:

The intuitive feeling that that's a sharp bet.

Matt Metcalf [00:39:14]:

Because it's it's all it's almost like you don't like, as a bookmaker, if you're any good, you understand most bets. Like, 95% of bets make sense to you. You're just like, yeah. I understand that. Like, you know, it it it's just you can kind of explain it whether it's an injury or something or or you had that feel like this feels like an injury spot. When when the sharpest guys bet and you don't really know why they bet it, but you kind of have this feeling like, I know this guy's not square. Like, that's a that's not a great feeling, and you're you're pretty nervous because you just feel like I have a blind spot. But but a lot of what your question was is it comes down to, like, how well you play our profile.

Matt Metcalf [00:39:48]:

And these guys switch up their tactics all the time. You know? If anytime you, like, put a player on something or put a read on them and just commit to it and move like, let's say you came in every day and we're back college basketball totals, and I was like, oh, this guy stuff is nuts. How did you know? What what's that?

Shane Mercer [00:40:04]:

Oh, oh. College basketball totals. Yeah. I I do a lot college hoops. I like the totals.

Matt Metcalf [00:40:07]:

of college shows. I like the totals. Those are tricky though because there's a lot of people who are interested. And and as and as time has gone on, recreational bettors know all the small schools. Like, they know they they like to bet totals. They like to bet all the stuff that in the past was reserved for, you know, sharper bettors. So now it's really tough. Like, you have players come in and you're like, should I respect this bet? Like, we wanna take big bets, but, like, is this guy gonna like, the thing I hate to do is I hate to give out, you know, what I think, like so, basically, the the motto at Circle was, like, I'll try to take a bet from you that I can work with.

Matt Metcalf [00:40:36]:

So even if you're really sharp, like, I wanna see your bet and you need okay. You need 10 to make this bet. Let me see if I can handle it. But if every time you make a 10 dime bet, the market moves five points and I'm stuck just holding the tickets and I can't really use the information, it's it's hard for me to give a big bet like that. So the worst thing that I will, like, was afraid of was I don't wanna give a big bet and then have to rescind limits because that makes me look like an asshole. Mhmm. I'm like, I wanna run a good business. And I I don't wanna tell you, like, yeah.

Matt Metcalf [00:41:01]:

Today, you can bet 5 dimes, and then you come in tomorrow and I'm like, hey. I can't handle it 2 dimes. And sometimes that happens, and I hate it. But, you know, we have to do what we have to do, but, like, it's it's not a good scenario for the player. It's not good for business. It's not good for anything. Like, I try to come up with a limit that basically covers my uncertainty level to where I know that that I'm not gonna have to back you off even if I'm wrong on my read. So, you know, when I was there, I tried to at least honor my limit for some amount of time that made sense.

Matt Metcalf [00:41:24]:

So, like, let's say I extended to you on February 1 and you kicked the shit out of me on college for on college basketball totals. I might say, hey, Shane. Like, you know what? I'll I'll take your action for the rest of the month, but then we gotta cut down to 2 dimes. So I just can't handle this. Every time you bet, it jumps five points in every market. I'm just getting, like, stuck with this money. I can't make any money off it. Like, that's what you what you hope is to build a relationship with the player where he's getting money down that he's happy with, and you're getting information that you're able to make money off of, and so you both win.

Matt Metcalf [00:41:51]:

But if you can't do that, you know, you have to find a number that works for both of you. So I I believe I think my time is a bettor gave me this sense of, like, fair play where I don't wanna fuck over bettors. Like, at any point, like, I you know, I was on that side for a long time. Like, I wanna do right with these guys. Like, they're doing a job, and I don't wanna, like like, any other business, they should they should have an understanding. Like, if I go to Circa and they give me 3 dimes, their word is 3 dimes. I can get 3 dimes there no matter what. And, like, as a professional bettor, you need to know your outs and need to know, like, hey.

Matt Metcalf [00:42:19]:

If I need three dimes in a in a pinch, I can log in to the Circa app, and it's there for me. Like, they're not gonna fucking change the limit on me, like, overnight and say, oh, sorry. Like, you're, like, that's bullshit. And no book that does that is a is a real sports book to me. And as the player, I just you know, we shouldn't have to accept that because it's it's just bullshit. It's shitty. Like, we're human beings, and we're running our own business as professional bettors. And talk to us like adults and, like, we're customers and say, hey.

Matt Metcalf [00:42:43]:

You know, I can't handle this money. I can't handle this money right now, but I'm gonna give you this amount of time to kind of, like, you know, figure your outs out so you can get it down somewhere else. Like, that that's fair to me.

Shane Mercer [00:42:51]:

to me. Wow. That that's a that's like an unprecedented level of fairness compared to what it's like dealing with most of the softbooks at least, out there. You know? That that that kind of dynamic just doesn't even exist with with with soft.

Matt Metcalf [00:43:04]:

Well, it it it did at Circa Sports when I was there, and that's why we built our business, and that's why bettors stick up for us. You know? That's why they that's why they became loyal to us because we're not looking to fuck them over. And sometimes we make bad deals. Sometimes I take a bet or I make a deal, like I said, that, like, this is not good for me. But I'm not gonna, like, pull the rug out from underneath you and just be, like, the next day and be, like, sorry, man. I said 10 times, but now you go now you get one.

Shane Mercer [00:43:26]:

Like Yeah. Or how about a dollar? And don't play here over again. Yeah.

Matt Metcalf [00:43:31]:

And that that to me is just like again, I will excuse a lot of books. I don't wanna say excuse. I understand where a lot of books are coming from because their tech they've grown their business is so big, and their tech hasn't kept up in a way where they can, like, properly profile and properly, like, give the right limits to the right players. But in the end, like, that's why Circa didn't attempt to grow faster because, you know, I didn't even and and I didn't really even wanna go to other states initially because I'm like, we don't have a product that can really represent ourselves well. Like, let's stay here and build this business in Nevada. And, you know, nobody's making you get out ahead of yourself and and, like, you know, conquer the world. Like, if you can't do it fairly and reputably, then maybe you need to slow down a little and wait till your tech catches up to, like, you know, your business.

Shane Mercer [00:44:13]:

So We talked a lot about sort of how the lines are are molded and shaped, at at a sharp book like circa, in the lead up to game time. I I wanna ask you about what happens once the game starts. And, you know, we do a lot of live betting at inplayLIVE. That's kind of, you know, our main focus. What did you see at Circa when it came to moving the lines, moving the odds in in a live capacity while the game is taking place? What were the main factors influencing it? I imagine it's a combination of things.

Matt Metcalf [00:44:45]:

It seemed to me early on in the process that it was kind of just a a copycat game to whoever had what was perceived as the best line. Right. There isn't really a lot of time for price discovery as I talked about in the in play space, especially, you know, when you get into, like, in, like, real time in play, like, not commercial break in play. Yeah. Like, in play play. Like, you know, they're they're running up

Shane Mercer [00:45:07]:

Like, in play play. Like, you know, they're they're running up and down the basketball court.

Matt Metcalf [00:45:09]:

So I think at Circa, I kind of knew where our weaknesses were. I knew that, like, that was not something that we specialized in nor did we really, like, have any expertise in it. So I met a guy named Matt Davidow, and I thought he had a really good product. The name of the company was Deckprism when I first met them about six or seven years ago. And him and his partner, Ed Miller, they had what I thought at the time was the best in play line in the world. They only offered not commercial breaks, which I understood why because they wanted to take fair limits to it. And at the time, you couldn't really be sure that you had, you know, a solid lineup, you know, to take their limits during, like, when play is actually going. Mhmm.

Matt Metcalf [00:45:50]:

So I I put a lot of faith in them for their product, and I really think, at the time, it was the best live line in the world. And so we farmed out our in game business to, to Deck Prism, which eventually became a company called Huddl. I think Matt and Ed aren't in the day to day like they were. But that my my my thing has always been, like, if we don't have the strength internally, let's find somebody who can live up to our standards in Circa to kinda provide things. But for the most part, like I said, I I I think it was kind of a copycat game. We got to the point with deck Prism where I felt like everybody was copying deck Prism's line. And so I think a lot of players and I'm talking main markets, not so much props. I think a lot of players were just kind of arming to what they perceive the sharpest book was.

Matt Metcalf [00:46:31]:

So, you know, if Deck Prism had a line of, you know, minus four and a half or 49 and a half and we hung three and a half or somebody else sold three and a three and a half of 48, we get minus three and a half bets at number 48. It just feel it feels very copycat ish. And all the books are afraid to step out of line. Like, it's such a small, like, time window that everybody's like, if I just blend in and have it the same line that everybody else does, nobody will nobody will whack me, which to me, like, makes sense in theory. But if you all are copying one place and you all have a bad line, like, you're all probably gonna lose. So, like, they're differing opinions in the market is a is a good thing. It allows bets to be placed by, like, where you can get information. And granted, I understand that it's a small window, and it's harder to price discover.

Matt Metcalf [00:47:10]:

But I still think on some big picture level, you can get a sense of what sharp players are telling you during the game and apply that somehow in your in play lines. I will say that a lot of, like, our in play thought also probably stemmed from our halftime betting. So when we would have halftime wagering where it's a set period of fifteen minutes and we could perform some price discovery, You know, you get sharp bets in that in that way where you're thinking, okay. I thought this in the first half, but now I've seen these sharp bets. I can kind of let that influence my my my in play lines during the sec you know, after the second half. So

Shane Mercer [00:47:41]:

Right. Okay. So that's where you would sort of start to take take take the sharp action and weight it have more heavily sort of at at those kind of break periods.

Matt Metcalf [00:47:53]:

Yeah. You you respect what you've seen in those break periods, and sometimes you'll get some bets that are that you can kind of price discover the market with in those break periods. You feel a little comfortable taking a bigger bet. To touch back on half times again, I know it's not technically in play wagering, but, the halftime markets are just so, like, just so, like, vibrant with, like, act activity and sharp activity. There's so many people with good opinions who participate in those markets partly because, you know, the numbers are probably soft when they open. But there's there's scenarios where I would sometimes feel more comfortable taking bigger limits on the second half after five minutes than on the game after, like, four days of price discovery. Like, you see so much action, and those numbers are so tightened in the span of five to ten minutes because of the action you're seeing. If you're taking big bets, you have to you're not gonna get that information for for 305 hundred bucks.

Matt Metcalf [00:48:40]:

Like, you have to you have to give these guys a real bet. But they'll they'll tell you what they really think because they don't have they're on the week to sit there and get their action down. If you take 10 dimes, 20 dimes in the second half, you will see some of the sharpest bets in the world, and you will see guys that hit at unbelievable, you know, clips. And it's just I I I I don't book halftime action much myself. I'm I'm honestly, like I think I'm too it's it's so, like, stressful for that fifteen minutes. But like I said, you can take a lot of that information because it's great information and apply it down the line. And then if you have price discovery opportunities during the second half, you can kinda remember what you kinda got, took it half time, then see what they're betting now and kind of maybe piece together the puzzle a little better. So I I love that

Shane Mercer [00:49:20]:

you that you said that when it when it comes to the hit rates because we try to tell people what what we're doing at inplayLIVE and and what our ROI is and what our hit rates are. People just typically don't believe us because, you know, they they've been they've been, you know, a condition to view everything through a pregame lens. And and some of these some of these numbers, you know, when we talk about, you know, double digit approaching 20 ROI, they just they can't they simply can't fathom it.

Matt Metcalf [00:49:42]:

Yeah. If you have a soft market, I mean, if it's something soft, like, it's it's possible to have crazy returns. I mean, I've seen some of the sharpest bettors in the world and they win at clips that that you wouldn't think are possible. Nothing is I I feel like I've seen it all. Nothing is nothing, like, surprises me even though some still shocked me, I guess. So maybe but yeah. I don't know. The halftime markets are definitely, a good place to start, if if you're somebody looking for maybe, like, you know, if you're betting a major sport, you're looking for more inefficiencies.

Shane Mercer [00:50:09]:

Right. Yeah. Speaking of of sort of, a soft market and and looking for efficiencies, when it comes to that, the Super Bowl is probably the furthest thing from it. You know, we're talking about, likely the most efficient, sport in North America when it comes to bet or or comes to betting markets, and then we're talking about the biggest sporting event in North America. This has to be the most efficient market out there. We're having this conversation for everybody out there before the Super Bowl takes place, and you'll be listening to this after the Super Bowl has happened and we all know the outcome. But, Matt, I gotta ask you. What are you seeing when it comes to the Super Bowl? Where is the money going? Where is the sharp money going? And what are what are you know, what's the general public doing out there? What have you seen?

Matt Metcalf [00:50:58]:

I'll I'll give you my read on this, and I have to preface everything I say with I am not, by any means, an NFL expert. As the kids would say, I do not know ball.

Matt Metcalf [00:51:07]:

just, like, not I I'm not, like, somebody who you go to for an NFL opinion. With that said, as a bookmaker, I will say that this number intrigues me because of, you know, the Patrick Mahomes doesn't lose, Chiefs don't lose scenario. Like, when I when I thought about this line and granted, I'm I'm, like, somebody who just kinda pay attention to the playoffs, honestly. I I thought this line would open about pick, and I I figured just by doing some line comparisons, you know, with the Buffalo, Baltimore line and seeing Baltimore favored at Buffalo and then seeing Buffalo close, pick them to small fave at KC. I figured that Philly should be a small favorite in this game just based on kind of me doing comparisons. So I was like, alright. I'll throw I'll throw Kansas City a bone because there's obviously something the market refuses to that that's hard to quantify that the market just hasn't caught up on. So I'm gonna say pick.

Matt Metcalf [00:51:55]:

I I think it surprised me that the Chiefs opened favored. But then again, when you start to think about it practically, like, the public has fully bought into this narrative that Patrick Mahomes is not lose big games. So this is a public game. This is a game where you're seeing more public action than you ever would see. It makes sense to me for the game to creep chief small favorite in these numbers that kinda, like, don't really matter. I never really care that much about, you know, between between the twos.

Matt Metcalf [00:52:20]:

a half is not that big to me. It it's substantial not substantial, but it means something to me when a number starts to touch two. I I take that as it's a little more solid on that side. But, like, Chiefs being one and a half doesn't really mean to me that they should be favored necessarily. I feel like this could be the right line, but I feel like this to me feels like the ceiling of the Chiefs Mahomes kind of like they win every game adjustment. I don't see how you could go past this number. That said, I've said this before. I feel like I've I've kind of had the same stance and and be shown to be wrong.

Matt Metcalf [00:52:53]:

So, I don't see as a bookmaker, I don't see a scenario where I wouldn't need Philly in this game for a large amount, where I wouldn't want it to need Philly. But that's just kind of, like, my my instinct. And, again, I'm not, like, sitting behind the scenes at Cirque anymore. I'm not seeing bets. So it seems like this number's I I I'd be surprised if it goes up anymore on the Chiefs. The scenario where it could go up is if the if the wise guys do not like Philly. Let's say the wise guys are just like, we don't like Philly. We don't wanna bet them this game.

Matt Metcalf [00:53:22]:

We don't wanna fade Chiefs and Mahomes, and the public keeps coming in on the Chiefs. I I guess this number could go two two and a half. It would never I mean, not not a million years would never get the three, obviously. But, like, I I guess it could but I don't think that's likely. I I think it's a lot more likely to go down to pick than it would be to go to, like, two, two and a half. I mean, I know it's touch two of places, but I would say, to me, more likely is pick than two and a half. So I guess if you put a gun to my head and and made me, you know, pick the side I would need as the bookie, you know, I would probably be needing Philly. I assume the public will be on KC, and I'm okay needing Philly in this game.

Matt Metcalf [00:53:53]:

So yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:53:53]:

Wow. I love that that you went that route where you're saying that the books will need Philly because my my next sort of conversation with you as being kind of a, a Vegas guy, so to speak, is that if the Chiefs do win, the, the narrative of the NFL is rigged. The NFL wanted the Chiefs to win. Vegas called it in is gonna be rampant online on social media, which I'm sure you've seen plenty of it, especially after that Bills game, with the Chiefs.

Matt Metcalf [00:54:22]:

Well, well, if the Chiefs do win, though well, to cut your question off, if the Chiefs do win, I feel like that's bad. That would be bad for the books, I think. Maybe I'm wrong on this. Maybe I lost touch. So I don't think the public I don't think the Vegas at least would want the Chiefs to win. Maybe maybe, like, the the the network, so the NFL or something you could you could say, but I don't think Vegas would want the Chiefs to win. That's my that's my speculation.

Shane Mercer [00:54:43]:

Okay. Okay. And and this whole idea of of Vegas rigged it, what goes through your mind when you see this narrative play out in such a massive way where it's like so many sports fans actively believe these kinds of conspiracies?

Matt Metcalf [00:55:02]:

It's very scary. It makes my head hurt. It just it overwhelms me. I don't I don't understand. I mean, I guess I guess we've seen scandals in the past where we've seen, you know, the Tim Donahue, scandal and Yeah. I I do think that there are sometimes, like, in the NBA, it was obvious that, like, calls were were made with outcomes somewhat in mind, giving the benefit of the doubt to star teams, star players. So, you know, the rest are human beings. I think it's possible for us to have biases.

Matt Metcalf [00:55:29]:

Like, that's definitely a thing that happens. So, could a league in the past have had, like I mean, they're they're running a business like anyone else. I'm sure I'm sure they want the Chiefs in the Super Bowl over, you know, a team like, I don't know. I got over the team like Red Skins. Even though I I was very fascinated by the Red Skins with with Daniels and everything. But, obviously, like and, again, I made a terrible comparison there because I know AFC and NFC. But, I think I think leagues have wants and stuff like that. But to to think that these these billion dollar businesses would would let, you know, that kind of thing filter in or or take those chances.

Matt Metcalf [00:56:06]:

If the public ever found out that something was scripted, like, why would they want to watch it to the same degree? Sportsbooks operate in a in a ecosystem where our worst fear is people not thinking the games are being played fairly. Like, that's so bad for business that people think, like, things aren't fair. But I do think with social media and a lot of, like, people talking to each other, there's just this tendency to wanna explain away things that are, like, I don't know, that, like, seem people just wanna explain everything. And it's easy to start connecting dots, and it makes you feel better. It makes you feel like, okay. I have a reason that these things happened. I can explain this instead of just saying, hey. That was just variance or that was bad luck or that's just what happened.

Matt Metcalf [00:56:44]:

Like, I think as a bookmaker, you see all just random shit happens. Fucking thousand and one shots come in sometimes. Like, just it's chaos. Like, you know, it's chaos. This stuff happens.

Shane Mercer [00:56:53]:

And it's you know, you mentioned the leagues and and sort of, you know, the big corporations, but a lot of a lot of the narrative goes towards Vegas called it in. Vegas, you know called this.

Matt Metcalf [00:57:03]:

you know I have an opinion on this. I have an opinion on this. And and I think a lot of people get upset at the Vegas knows the Vegas thing. Yeah. Because there are people who understand the sports betting markets and understand that Vegas Odds Makers do not necessarily set the line anymore. You know, it used to be that, like, circa, I think we set some markets. But, you know, for the most part, there's offshore books that were setting the line and so people hit all offense a little. The average the average fan does not have, like, an understanding of gambling markets in a way where he can be like, well, the line does originate in Vegas.

Matt Metcalf [00:57:34]:

I don't know if football originates in Costa Rica. Everyone knows this. He's saying Vegas is this catch all term just to capture, like, sports betting and bookmakers and that kind of thing. They don't if, like, if they understood how the markets worked, they wouldn't say Vegas. So I think, like, I just I just excuse it away. I'm like, when they say Vegas, they just mean, like, the people setting the odds. Yeah. Yeah.

Matt Metcalf [00:57:54]:

And again, they don't understand that the oddsmaker's job is not necessary to set a perfect line. The bettors are the ones who set the lines. You guys, like, tell us what the line should be. But that again is a very, like, advanced and that's past. Like, most people think when I tell people, like, I'm an odds maker or a bookmaker or whatever, they just think I'm out there predicting final scores. Like, oh, I think the Chiefs will win by two points. Like, oh, it landed two. Wow.

Matt Metcalf [00:58:15]:

You're good at your job. Like, that's not at all, like, how it works. I can open up, you know, I can open up, Philly minus three, take some sharp bets, get to Chiefs minus one. I did my job. I got to the right number. Like, I I think the opening line is so overrated. It's just this jumping off point. It doesn't, like, mean like, the bettors tell us where the line should go.

Matt Metcalf [00:58:34]:

Like, we need to be okay. We don't need to be great. If we're a great odds maker and a great bookmaker, we nail every line. Yes. That probably is to our advantage. But again, like, I'm there were times when I thought for sure I was the best NASCAR bettor in the world. And if I'm booking NASCAR and I have sharp players that I respect, I still have to respect their action. Even if I think the line should be, you know, five to one on Dale Earnhardt Junior win this race and they're telling me it's not.

Matt Metcalf [00:58:58]:

I I'm not gonna go to war with my opinion and just turn a blind out in the market. You have to respect, you know, the fact that there's all these market participants, and they wouldn't be betting if they were losing money, and they're not dumb. And, like, you can't just be sit there and attach to your opinion. So it's a lot more complicated of an ecosystem than I think the average bettor understands. But then again, like, I don't have any expectations that they should understand that. I'm not gonna get pissed every time they say Vegas knows as a professional bettor as an offshore guy. Like, they're they're just using some catch all term that, like, covers, like I think I

Shane Mercer [00:59:26]:

I think I think you're giving them too much credit saying that they're using it as a catch all term. I think so many of them actually believe the lines originate in Vegas.

Matt Metcalf [00:59:37]:

It they don't really like again, though, the origination doesn't matter. Like No. So anyway. Yeah. That that's the that's the point of it to me. Like, the origination does not matter. Like, Vegas Odds Makers, Offshore Odds Makers, whoever opens the line like, circa opened the first line in college football in the world. Sometimes we open the line 10 points off.

Matt Metcalf [00:59:56]:

I opened a college basketball total or excuse me. A WNBA all star total 50 points off. Like, we're human beings. We make we make mistakes. Like, it's not the end of the world. Like, if you're gonna hold your odds maker I I feel like this is a little what's wrong with the with the prop space also. Because right now, I'm working for a company called Mojo. Yeah.

Matt Metcalf [01:00:14]:

And what we're trying to do, we're trying to basically, like, build this, like, for lack of a better word, a very advanced, like, algorithm that will basically interpret our data science models along with the market, along with, like, bet flow to figure out, like, what prop should be. And I think what's happening right now in the market is all sports book providers are trying to build, like, the perfect model. And, like, our model is always right. Our model our model says that Mahomes rush yard should be 39.2. That's the number. And I think that's very, like you're being very egotistical if you think that you're gonna be able to create a model that's better than the market and that becomes the market. Like, at some point, your model might be better than the market. Okay.

Matt Metcalf [01:00:56]:

But people are always learning. People always discovering new stuff. The power of a bookmaker is to look at all the market participants, take in the bets, and try to find the best number based on what everybody thinks. So our thing at Mojo is we've hired, like, Wall Street Quants who are basically in charge of trying to, like, come up with all these tools and automation things around moving numbers and interpreting, you know, bet flow and and and and money to basically take our data science point number as a starting off point, but then really adjust the real market factors into creating a really good number that hopefully, books will feel more comfortable escalating their limits and taking and participating in price discovery and growing the player prop market. Because from my from my viewpoint, player props are where everything is headed. Like, people care about player props. Kids you know, my people my age care about main markets. You know, they care about, you know, betting Georgia minus three, over under, that kind of stuff.

Matt Metcalf [01:01:46]:

But, like, I really think the younger generation is just falling in love with the player prop element of it. Probably due to fantasy and stuff. But Yeah. I I wanna be, like, a catalyst to making those markets more liquid and making people be able to bet real money in those markets and not just have it where every bet you place where people think you have a clue, you get limited to a dollar.

Shane Mercer [01:02:03]:

You know? That's interesting. I think that it can be more than that. You're really trying to make the prop market sharper and more efficient to the point Sharper and more efficient. And to the point where the softbooks will take a a more reasonable, wager on on these props.

Matt Metcalf [01:02:18]:

And and I wouldn't sell it to them like that. I would say as a as a soft book, you'll feel more comfortable that you have a number on the board that, like, isn't gonna get attacked by all these players in a way where you have to be as defensive and limit as many players. So if you wanna run a soft boat, that's okay. But maybe you're now okay being a little more lenient with the guys that are coming and playing and not thinking that everybody's sharp and not being scared of your own own shadow because you've you've you feel more comfortable with the number that you've seen. And I and I I think it's it's just defensiveness and limiting players is not the way. Building tools on the on the sportsbook side to have better numbers and to create more liquidity is the path to, like, a better experience, like, for everybody in my mind. Like, that's that's the way that sports betting should be. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [01:03:04]:

Okay. So how would it work, from a live perspective? Because live player props are are are big thing for us at inplayLIVE. How would you be able to sort of, take in all of that all of that information, like, looking at, you know, the original model and the number projected versus what's happening actually happening in the game versus what, what the bet flow looks like.

Matt Metcalf [01:03:27]:

I I think the key on this is and it's a little different from kind of the stuff I was explaining on pregame. But the key would be our models learning and processing tendencies, market market like information in a way where we can kind of have learnings from one game around how people are betting and interacting with certain players or certain teams or just certain situations and kind of make our models better to the point where we're accounting for more than just trying to simulate the game. So it's such a fast deal that I don't think, like, manually we could ever hope to process that information in an irrelevant way. So, again, we're kinda getting out of my, like you know, I signed on with this Mojo company because they have a really smart people, and I'm just, like, kind of a bookmaker. So I'm relying a lot on our on our really smart data science people, our engineers, our quants to basically tell me what's possible. But my hope is that through various techniques, we can we can do, you know, some recon on the bets that are coming in in a manner that we could never ever dream of doing manually, like, while it's happening in a way where we can make the numbers better. And I wanted to say this, like, us making better numbers and making markets more efficient and sharper does not have to necessarily be bad for professional players.

Shane Mercer [01:04:41]:

No. No. I think that

Matt Metcalf [01:04:42]:

I think that as liquidity increases and players can get down, there's always gonna be edges. Things are always changing. There's nothing stagnant where, like, we solve it. Like, it's not nothing's ever solved. So I think as we if we can increase liquidity and allow players the ability to, like, with one click, get down 3 dimes, 4 dimes, 5 dimes on a bet, where in the past they get down a couple hundred bucks Well, that's think they'd be okay with a little less of an edge.

Shane Mercer [01:05:05]:

Absolutely. Because that's kind of what the live player prop market is like right now. And, and I think, you know, if if if it did leave to lead to higher limits, especially at at some of the the the softbooks where they're offering, you know, every prop imaginable, I think it would be great for sharp bettors.

Matt Metcalf [01:05:21]:

Yeah. And I think I mean, some softbooks are never going to want to give winning bettors a chance, and that's their prerogative, I guess. Right. But I think for the most part, there's some books in the world that, you know, I I I think Bandel is probably one of them. I think Bandel is open to taking bets from sharper players for the most part. Yeah. And I think they would do that if they felt like they had a better way to deal with the numbers or deal with the action. They felt more confident in their numbers.

Matt Metcalf [01:05:44]:

Again, I'm not I don't know FanDuel. I'm not saying anything how they feel, but I'm just speculating that I I think that for the most part, having more efficient numbers leading to higher limits at some books would be good for the overall ecosystem and allow softer books to put their guard down a little and say, hey. Okay. This guy is, like maybe he's a small winner, but, like, he's a small winner in the in let's say he's a small player small small winner in the in play prop market, but he's just betting on the NFL and just gambling, and we're gonna let him play this, you know, this amount on the prop markets because we know, like, he's kinda just giving us good action in NFL. Some something like that. I just I feel like the potential is there for these kind of scenarios to occur, but it's all gonna move through, some level of a, like, you know, increased technological kind of insights and, like, automation that I'm not capable of as a bookie just sitting at circus sports and moving numbers. So

Shane Mercer [01:06:34]:

Yeah. No. I think I think your, your intuition there on FanDuel is probably right. I know that a lot of our members have sort of said, you know, they have experienced longer leashes at FanDuel. And even when you get limited, you know, they they can sometimes, depending on the market, still give you some decent limits on some wagers. Right. You know, so so, yeah, I think I think you're right in terms of thinking that among the softbooks, they might be one of them that is, willing to be able to

Matt Metcalf [01:06:57]:

Would you call would you call FanDuel a softbook? Yeah. Okay. Yeah. I I don't have enough experience playing at most of these most of these books now because I don't I don't really bat, like, seriously. So I thought of them as kind of a cut above the fray. But, again, I I trust, you know, I trust your opinion because you've obviously played more than I do.

Shane Mercer [01:07:12]:

Yeah. Yeah. We would definitely consider FanDuel, among the softbooks out there for sure. Although, like I was saying, it sort of seems like they've indicated at least in the last, you know, say, six months to a year that they're that they're perhaps willing to to extend leashes and not cut off players as, you know, as soon as some others and maybe even, once they are limited, at least offer them, you know, to still be able to get down a couple hundred bucks as opposed to limiting players to a dollar, which we see from a ton of soft books out there.

Matt Metcalf [01:07:37]:

Right. Can I can I press you for power ratings of, like, the the the main national books of, like, least soft to softest? Is that is that too

Shane Mercer [01:07:47]:

Wow. A a a soft book power rating. I don't think that, you know, that's not something that I've that we've ever looked at, but that why you've just given us a great idea. I gotta have to consult with, with my cohost, Pace, who couldn't make it here today to talk about perhaps doing something like that, where we could we could rank, you know, softest to sharpest. You know, obviously, you know, the the sharp the sharp books that are out there with with, you know, that are operating on sharp book models are gonna be up there. So we're talking Pinnacle, Circa, of course, Prime, Betcris, you know, some of those, you know.

Matt Metcalf [01:08:19]:

Right. Right. I think I'm talking more about, like, the the big the big brands, like the the the fan the FanDuel, the DraftKings, ESPN. Yeah. All the big ones. That's, like, that's what I'm interested in.

Shane Mercer [01:08:28]:

Amongst, I I now and now I'm just, like, sort of, you know, spit balling. People in the community, our listeners, please correct me. Let me know what you guys think the soft book power rankings would be. But, softest books out there, I'm hearing Fanatics, ESPN are amongst some of the softest. MGM is way up there in terms of softness. So so we're talking about on on the softer side. FanDuel and DraftKings, sort of, you know, not quite as soft as those. You know? So perhaps some something a little bit more sharper.

Shane Mercer [01:09:02]:

Bet three six five

Matt Metcalf [01:09:03]:

How much softer is DraftKings and FanDuel?

Shane Mercer [01:09:06]:

How much softer is DraftKings?

Matt Metcalf [01:09:07]:

Or is it?

Shane Mercer [01:09:08]:

Or is it? Yeah. I think it depends on the market we're talking about there. But when it comes to limiting, I think they they will limit you quicker. DraftKings will definitely limit faster than than FanDuel, at least, you know, that that's kinda what we're hearing right now, out there. So so, you know, FanDuel perhaps slightly sharper than DraftKings. You know?

Matt Metcalf [01:09:29]:

In in my mind, there was a big gap between those two. Again, this is just, like, anecdotally and just, like, me kind of, like, my perception. Yeah. I had I had FanDuel, like, a decent amount ahead of DraftKings in terms of that that level. Yeah. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [01:09:42]:

Well, I I think we would agree there. I just, yeah. That's something we gotta look at. SoftBook power rankings. Love it. Great idea for for us to do here on the show. That that'd be a lot of fun. Matt, where can people find you? How can they follow you? How can they reach out to you? Are are you open to people, reaching out to you in the first place?

Matt Metcalf [01:10:01]:

Yeah. I'm on Twitter. That's pretty much my only social media, at double impact, m m p a c t. Yeah. People DM me all the time and kind of ask me random questions, and I try to answer everybody. I try. So if I missed yours, it's I apologize. Try again.

Matt Metcalf [01:10:17]:

But, yeah. I always like to talk about the industry. I don't like to talk about, like, handicapping sports per se. I don't like like, if you're if you're gonna text me and say, like or DM me and say, what do you what do you think of this week's NASCAR race? Or what do you think of a college football thing? Like, I just I just don't wanna talk about anything sports related, but I like talking about bookmaking theory and and stuff like that. So, yeah, that's interesting to me.

Shane Mercer [01:10:38]:

Love it. Well, it's very interesting to us here on the show. It's been great chatting with you. I've had a lot of fun. Matt Metcalfe, the chief risk officer at Mojo.

Matt Metcalf [01:10:49]:

Cool. Thanks for coming on. Thanks, Shane.

Shane Mercer [01:10:57]:

Alright. That was Matt Metcalfe. Really enjoyed that conversation. I hope all of you out there listening, did too. I'm very excited to see what he does with this new company Mojo and how that affects our lives, when when it comes to betting on player props and and what the books, might be able to do with the technology that that he that that company is working on.

Andrew Pace [01:11:16]:

Well, Shane, there's nothing worse than when you have a sports book that stops offering player props. Yeah. You know? So if the line's a little bit sharper, but you still get them, that's a positive thing in my eyes.

Shane Mercer [01:11:28]:

Exactly. I I think I think overall, it it would be a positive thing. No doubt. And I'm sure that, we at Imply Live, betting live will still very much be able to take advantage of, of opportunities and spot value in the player props markets, regardless of sports. So, yeah, really sort of looking forward to to seeing, how things develop there and what's next for him. Back to us, though, for a moment before we say, goodbye. I wanna remind all of you, out there, that the Pinnacle contest is still going on. PACE is gonna put a thousand USD in someone's account.

Shane Mercer [01:12:04]:

All you gotta do is place a $10 or more wager on Pinnacle, show it to us, and you're entered into the contest. And that's a quarterly thing. So, it'll be coming up, at the April that that somebody would get it. Plenty of opportunity to bet on pinnacle, with March Madness, just around the corner, and and we're really into the heat of of college basketball season as teams try to make their way to the big tournaments. And with that pace too, I gotta mention something from last week. I've gotten some feedback. You were talking about a, a sports book, Vice and and sort of giving everybody sort of tips on how to get money out of a book and into another book, and that kind of thing. I've heard some people actually acting on that and actively rolling over money from books using Pinnacle and and trying to get money out of books that way.

Shane Mercer [01:12:52]:

And even, the other thing too is bonus harvesting and and some people doing some bonus harvesting that way as well too. Collecting the bonuses and then, rolling them over into pinnacles. So, people out there very, much appreciate that advice you gave last week.

Andrew Pace [01:13:06]:

Yeah. We had, one of our listeners in our Discord say, he the balance grew at the wrong sportsbook. So, hopefully, if that is the situation that you're in, we like to say this. Like, John and I always say that you either, you either roll it or you lose it. Right? So keep going. Obviously, when you win it to the wrong book, it may have cost you some money. And then you look at the net bonus amount, and it might not have ended up being super worth it in that one instance or occurrence. But if you stick with it and you pick the right lines, in my examples, what I've had is, I've brought these up, but definitely a couple of rails hit.

Andrew Pace [01:13:46]:

And when that happens, you have to view it as like, hey. I just moved the money, but I still have the money. Yeah. So, like, I moved it and have it. It does happen. We talked about hockey. That that six five and a half, six goal situation is a really great one. Those those, like, just go through any game any slate of games.

Andrew Pace [01:14:06]:

Obviously, we're sitting in the four nations break now here. But, any slate of games, and you'll see that five and a half, six, and watch how many games land on six in the NHL. It will happen. Now, obviously, the juice does add up, but, your goal is to get out of things with as little juice paid as possible. And, I've been doing it. It's been working really, really well, and I definitely have had a few underdogs come through where my balance grew at the wrong book. I stuck with it, and I was able to move the the funds out. Now some of these circumstances for me might be a situation where, you know, I've got $30,000 at a sportsbook that, is not gonna pay me, but I can still bet.

Andrew Pace [01:14:49]:

So sometimes I view that as getting 20 out is just fine. It's better than getting zero out. So that's a big part of a lot of this for me. And I know that that might not sit well with some other people, but, like, I haven't had an example where 10,000 doll it cost me $10,000 to move 30, but I definitely have a have a couple where it's cost me, you know, 5,000 to to move 30. And and I'm I'm thrilled to have done it in those spots. It might cost me $5. I got my money over. I am freaking so happy.

Andrew Pace [01:15:19]:

to do that. So, yeah, and I'm I'm working through situations like that almost daily right now.

Shane Mercer [01:15:25]:

Cool. And you're getting paid by, that book you brought up last week. I think you called it Weiss, but it's actually called Weiss.

Andrew Pace [01:15:34]:

Yeah. No. I, the the, the I had a great experience with them. I actually am leaving for Hawaii this afternoon. We're shooting on on Monday and, just got another 16,000 out, so I'm almost fully out of that sportsbook. But, yeah, they they treated me really well over there, and, they they've they've reached out to me and, and and thanked me for, you know, quote, sharpening some inefficiencies. So Yeah. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [01:15:54]:

I respect them for taking that approach. And, yeah, they they I think that promo code's still active Super Bowl to get that $3,000 bonus, and you you can you can do the same thing with that.

Shane Mercer [01:16:05]:

Well, there you go. And they sound like a sound like a a book worth playing at. You're you're getting your money out of them. No issue. And, you definitely would recommend them to others.

Andrew Pace [01:16:14]:

Yeah. And the the one thing I'll say just because I did I also posted something to Instagram about specifically Vice to to to pinnacle. I'd I I think it's worth mentioning a a lot of sportsbooks that are are let's call it smaller. They protect themselves with vig. That's what they do. So you might open up the lines for them pregame, and there's a lot of juice. You you can use the live lines to do this as well. So use timeouts.

Andrew Pace [01:16:42]:

I've done that quite a bit with rollover myself as well. You you have lines at pinnacle. You're on a time out, and you're much more probable to find a low juice or even an arbor in middle, during during a time out. So if you're looking at a book like that and it's a little too juicy, just just take it into the live, the live menu.

Shane Mercer [01:17:01]:

Well, lots of basketball middles out there live. Just ask Randy.

Andrew Pace [01:17:05]:

Yeah. Yeah. Totally. Totally.

Shane Mercer [01:17:08]:

Yeah. It's, yeah, there's there's just so much right now in that area. Alright. Well, good stuff. Enjoy Hawaii. You know, the fruits of your labor paying off, and, that that's always, pretty awesome. I'm sure that that you get to do that with, with your family. And, we'll look forward to to seeing you back.

Shane Mercer [01:17:24]:

How long you gone for? Two weeks?

Andrew Pace [01:17:26]:

Two weeks. Yep.

Shane Mercer [01:17:27]:

Two weeks. Alright. So maybe you'll make a a pod appearance from Hawaii. We'll we'll see how things go.

Andrew Pace [01:17:32]:

From the balcony looking out at the whales. Yeah.

Shane Mercer [01:17:34]:

Oh, there we go. Yeah. Awesome. Awesome. Alright. Well, thanks till next week. And to all of you tuning in from around the world, all you sports bettors, keep beating those books. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines.

Shane Mercer [01:17:46]:

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